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Thread: ISIS: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

  1. #31
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Idaho View Post
    Such an arse-about-face way of looking at it. I know Blair himself saw /sees his middle east interventions as divine acts rejected by heathens, but he's mad. We don't have to go along with it.

    The region has been politically and economically controlled and manipulated for centuries. There has never been any consideration of what the people want... With perhaps the exception of saddam in some circumstances.
    So how does that hand wringing translate into a plan? What should be done? What shouldn't be done? How should this plan be decided?

  2. #32

    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Here are some musing from the BBC
    It has some dubious assumptions, but at least looks at some of the issues:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/09/o...-strategy.html
    Ja-mata TosaInu

  3. #33
    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post


    Go on, this is fun to read. I really like Kage, too.
    "Raises up from a dusty corner of backroom". You summoned me and here i am. Uhm, self- determination. Yesshh..

    In my opinion the events around the Kurdish referendum has been a travesty. We should look at the whole area in this context as just looking at Iraq does not give us any clear picture at this point, while lumping this affair as internal affair of Iraq has been an easy way to look at the issue. The factors at Iraq are the Iraq Shia government, which is backed by Iran, The past Isis disgruntled Sunni at central and Northern Iraq and the Kurds at Eastern and Northern Iraq.

    To me it is rather lazy for the World to use rhetorics like the protection of integrity of state of Iraq, as there is no such thing anymore. The Shia government and Iran of course will do their utmost to hang into power in all Iraq, but if we look into the facts, such is not possible anymore. The Shia power is clear and solid in the South, but to control the central and the Northern Sunnis, without any radical change will only mean endless war. Iran is also worried about the aspirations of their Western Kurdish minority.
    Turkey, another power in the area is worried about Iraqi Kurdistan, since creation of Iraqi Kurdistan might launch creation of Syrian Kurdistan and even Turkish Kurdistan.

    The constant ethos of West has been that everything should be done in order to bring stability and peace to the area and create circumstances prolific for democracy. The closest thing for such can be found in Iraqi Kurdistan, where Kurdish have been harboring Assyrian, Turkmen and Jesidi minorities from Isis, while being the main antagonist of Isis from the total collapse of Iraq armed forces at Northern parts of the country back at 2014 until the start of the counter offensive of Government forces during 2016. The Kurdish region is also secular and the standing of women in their society is light years ahead of the rest of Iraq.

    With these points. It should be a no brainer, which side the West should be supporting in Iraq, but it is not so. The rhetoric range from "stability" to "avoiding further fragmentation" to "defusing the situation". Aka simply rhetorics for rhetorics. Only clear cut supporter of Iraqi Kurdistan referendum was Israel, but while Iran, Turkey and Iraq goverment are having military manouvers at the borders of Kurdistan. One thing these countries and also the international community might be forgetting is that with the 93% support for the independency, battle tested armed forces and stabile internal situation, added the geography of the area. Pressing the Iraqi Kurdistan back to fold might be something more the other factions might be able to chew. And yes that is self- determination.
    Last edited by Kagemusha; 10-03-2017 at 09:06.
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  4. #34
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    If you don't mind, Kage, now that everyone has read your excellent post, I'm just going to leave this here:

    https://www.facebook.com/BuzzFeedInd...3678086359339/

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    'Why?' you ask?
    Well, of course because I find it "hilarious" in my depravity and bias.


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  5. #35
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    If you don't mind, Kage, now that everyone has read your excellent post, I'm just going to leave this here:

    https://www.facebook.com/BuzzFeedInd...3678086359339/

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    'Why?' you ask?
    Well, of course because I find it "hilarious" in my depravity and bias.
    The Husarian equivalent of Godwin.

  6. #36
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    The Husarian equivalent of Godwin.
    http://listverse.com/2013/03/12/10-w...ned-the-world/

    http://www.srimatham.com/uploads/5/5...ned_india_.pdf

    The Indian trade was ruined through restrictive trade practices. During the early stages of
    Industrial revolution, Indian goods then exceedingly competitive were levied 70 to 80 %
    duties. Even later, the machine made British goods enjoyed 10 to 27 percent duty
    advantage over Indian goods manufactured by traditional means. As the Indian finished
    goods became less and less competitive, the policies slowly made India an agricultural
    colony, and the exports of raw goods feeding the British Empire, rose as finished goods
    exports fell. Impoverished masses from the Indian industrial centres rushed to villages to
    agriculture. The landowners were already heavily taxed far in excess of previous foreign
    rulers. Then the British changed the law, and allowed the new Œcapital holders’ to own
    the land in India. The British bought lands for plantations, which were manned by Indian
    slave labour. Thus even the agricultural export profits benefited only the British
    plantation owners, and not the starving labourers. Let us look at the details of how this
    was done. It was a deliberate policy of the Board of Directors of the East India Company,
    since 1769. In the early nineteenth century the duty on Muslin and Calico was more than
    27 and 71 percent ad valorem, respectively. Even then, British manufacturers were
    unable to compete with Indian Manufacturers; hence Britain prohibited the import of
    Calico cloths. Heavy protective duties -- 70 and 80 percent, respectively- were imposed
    on the Indian silk and cotton goods in England. These ruined those industries in India,
    while British goods were imported into India at nominal duty.

    [...]

    By 1850, India, which had for centuries exported cotton goods to the whole world, was
    importing one-fourth of all British cotton exports. In any technology revolution, old
    methods must make way for the new ones. But during the industrial revolution, which
    was taking place in Britain, the resulting ruin of the millions of artisans and weavers in
    India was not accompanied by the growth of new forms of industry in India. The old
    populous towns like Dacca, Surat and Murshidabad (which Clive in 1757 had described
    as Œextensive, populous, and rich as the city of London) and the like were in a few years
    rendered desolate under the ŒPax Britannica’. The population of Dacca, the Manchester
    of India, decreased from 150,000 to 30,000! In 1890, Sir Henry Cotton wrote, „ less than
    a hundred years ago, the whole commerce of Dacca was estimated at ten million rupees
    and its population at 200,000. In 1787 Dacca’s muslin exports to England amounted to 3
    million rupees; in 1817 they had ceased altogether. The arts of spinning and weaving∑.
    have now become extinct.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ev...ined_the_World


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  7. #37
    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    If you don't mind, Kage, now that everyone has read your excellent post, I'm just going to leave this here:

    https://www.facebook.com/BuzzFeedInd...3678086359339/

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    'Why?' you ask?
    Well, of course because I find it "hilarious" in my depravity and bias.
    Thank you for the compliment Hus.

    About this matter...I am not sure i want to dive into this can of worms. Maybe the question concerning issues like this is: How long we have to carry the burden of our ancestors? Is Pannonian´s job to defend what British did at India during 19th century based on their 19th century values, or should our US members still feel bad about the treatment of American natives? Is such relevant at all?
    Ja Mata Tosainu Sama.

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  8. #38
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kagemusha View Post
    Thank you for the compliment Hus.

    About this matter...I am not sure i want to dive into this can of worms. Maybe the question concerning issues like this is: How long we have to carry the burden of our ancestors? Is Pannonian´s job to defend what British did at India during 19th century based on their 19th century values, or should our US members still feel bad about the treatment of American natives? Is such relevant at all?
    More relevantly, does the history of India mean that we were wrong to intervene in Iraq because it added to the sum of human suffering, and correspondingly wrong to not intervene in Syria because it added to the sum of human suffering? Constructive criticism accepts the unavoidable fact that people will make errors of judgement, and establish guidelines that all know and will operate by. Since WWI, the basic guideline has been self determination, the ability to choose one's government and form of government free from outside interference, with the corresponding inference that empires should be disestablished and colonies made independent. The British empire is gone, and India is independent, and there are diplomatic relations between Britain and its former colonies. So why does Husar bring up India when I'm arguing that we have no business interfering in the affairs of other countries?

    I point you to Orwell's observation of Communist apologists, who operate by the guideline that Anglo-America is wrong, and will twist their perception of reality to support that argument. Start with the conclusion, then find an argument to support that conclusion.

  9. #39
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    A German lecturing a Briton on the evils of empire. What did you guys do with your last empire, may I ask?

  10. #40
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kagemusha View Post
    Thank you for the compliment Hus.

    About this matter...I am not sure i want to dive into this can of worms. Maybe the question concerning issues like this is: How long we have to carry the burden of our ancestors? Is Pannonian´s job to defend what British did at India during 19th century based on their 19th century values, or should our US members still feel bad about the treatment of American natives? Is such relevant at all?
    As spmetla said, it is relevant in the context that the present is a result of the past. I never said Pannonian should feel guilty about any of that, just that he can't blame everything entirely on the Indians, Africans or whoever of today. Their views, behavior etc. are a result of what their parents did and taught them and that was partially a result of what colonialism did to them. All we can do is try not to repeat those mistakes of the past and perhaps let those wounds heal.
    Denying any wrongdoing on the other hand just leads to more rejection on the other side, especially when our behavior today perpetuates some of the injustices created in and left over from the past.

    I don't feel personally guilty for WW2, why would I expect the British to feel personally guilty for Colonialism?
    If De Beers (or Shell, or another Western Corporation) still exploits a post-colonial world order in order to exploit African countries and transfer all the profits to the accounts of rich European "landowners" and we are somehow okay with that while we blame Africans for being so poor, that's a different story...
    If the poor Africans were to murder everyone at DeBeers and their local supporters because that's the only way for them to profit from the diamond trade as a people, we'd probably call them terrorists instead of saying it's self-determination.

    Think about things like this: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/13/he...king-laws.html

    Alarmed about rising smoking rates among young women, Namibia, in southern Africa, passed a tobacco control law in 2010 but quickly found itself bombarded with stern warnings from the tobacco industry that the new statute violated the country’s obligations under trade treaties.

    Continue reading the main story
    FEATURED COMMENT

    barbara8101 Philadelphia
    What is really under discussion in this article is whether tobacco companies have a right to kill people. In my view, that sums it up.
    270 COMMENTS
    “We have bundles and bundles of letters from them,” said Namibia’s health minister, Dr. Richard Kamwi.

    Three years later, the government, fearful of a punishingly expensive legal battle, has yet to carry out a single major provision of the law, like limiting advertising or placing large health warnings on cigarette packaging.
    I fully expect Pannonian to say that if they're independent countries, it is their fault for signing the trade treaty, completely ignoring that they're desperate to regain any kind of industry and don't have the same education standards whereas we employ lawyers they probably couldn't even afford to write and negotiate these contracts.
    My point is we should know better if we're educated and moral people. If we just exploit them because we can, then we're not morally superior in any way.
    Last edited by Husar; 10-04-2017 at 19:46.


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  11. #41
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    As spmetla said, it is relevant in the context that the present is a result of the past. I never said Pannonian should feel guilty about any of that, just that he can't blame everything entirely on the Indians, Africans or whoever of today. Their views, behavior etc. are a result of what their parents did and taught them and that was partially a result of what colonialism did to them. All we can do is try not to repeat those mistakes of the past and perhaps let those wounds heal.
    Denying any wrongdoing on the other hand just leads to more rejection on the other side, especially when our behavior today perpetuates some of the injustices created in and left over from the past.

    I don't feel personally guilty for WW2, why would I expect the British to feel personally guilty for Colonialism?
    If De Beers (or Shell, or another Western Corporation) still exploits a post-colonial world order in order to exploit African countries and transfer all the profits to the accounts of rich European "landowners" and we are somehow okay with that while we blame Africans for being so poor, that's a different story...
    If the poor Africans were to murder everyone at DeBeers and their local supporters because that's the only way for them to profit from the diamond trade as a people, we'd probably call them terrorists instead of saying it's self-determination.

    Think about things like this: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/13/he...king-laws.html



    I fully expect Pannonian to say that if they're independent countries, it is their fault for signing the trade treaty, completely ignoring that they're desperate to regain any kind of industry and don't have the same education standards whereas we employ lawyers they probably couldn't even afford to write and negotiate these contracts.
    My point is we should know better if we're educated and moral people. If we just exploit them because we can, then we're not morally superior in any way.
    So how does that translate into a set of guidelines for how states should behave towards areas of conflict like Syria? I've already accepted that Britain were in the wrong over Iraq, despite opposing it at the time, and that we should abandon the tenets of neoconservatism and revert to the default of self determination and non-interference. Which, BTW, you've declined to agree should be a default. I don't claim to speak for other countries, as I believe in practising what I preach, and since I preach non-interference, then I don't have the right to say what other countries should do. I'm ok with Kage's example of self determination, and if they can make their statehood work, good luck to them. But I'd like Britain to stay well clear of affairs in the ME, whatever moral or humanitarian arguments people may want to poke at us, along with references to an empire which they constantly remind us we no longer have.

  12. #42
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    So how does that translate into a set of guidelines for how states should behave towards areas of conflict like Syria? I've already accepted that Britain were in the wrong over Iraq, despite opposing it at the time, and that we should abandon the tenets of neoconservatism and revert to the default of self determination and non-interference. Which, BTW, you've declined to agree should be a default. I don't claim to speak for other countries, as I believe in practising what I preach, and since I preach non-interference, then I don't have the right to say what other countries should do. I'm ok with Kage's example of self determination, and if they can make their statehood work, good luck to them. But I'd like Britain to stay well clear of affairs in the ME, whatever moral or humanitarian arguments people may want to poke at us, along with references to an empire which they constantly remind us we no longer have.
    Since every conflict is different, I don't think there can be a guideline. In general I prefer your standard of non-interference over playing the white man's burden game of trying to fix everything with force. However, if you government began to slaughter you, I might decide that it would be better to come to your aid.

    The big problem is that even though we live in the information age, it can be hard to decide who is the "innocent" side in a conflict and when it is appropriate to help one side and when it isn't. You and I probably have worse information than our governments though and the biggest problem here is when governments decide based on what's best for their own strategic resource situation regardless of human lives or similar.

    If you go with the guideline approach, you might end up being "right" in 50% of cases and wrong in the other 50% regardless of the guideline you choose. At least if you discuss an issue with a genuine concern for the people affected, you can claim you tried your best instead of hiding behind a standard MO while real humans actually get slaughtered by the millions in some cases.

    About Syria in particular I can only say that it seems really hard to decide with my knowledge, it's a very complex issue and I won't claim to know what is or would have been best. Some problems cannot be solved in a satisfactory way, but it may already help to try and support/shelter the civilian population as best as possible. The government usually has experts and intelligence services to help with such decisions. Of course if they just represent corporate interests...


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  13. #43
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    Since every conflict is different, I don't think there can be a guideline. In general I prefer your standard of non-interference over playing the white man's burden game of trying to fix everything with force. However, if you government began to slaughter you, I might decide that it would be better to come to your aid.

    The big problem is that even though we live in the information age, it can be hard to decide who is the "innocent" side in a conflict and when it is appropriate to help one side and when it isn't. You and I probably have worse information than our governments though and the biggest problem here is when governments decide based on what's best for their own strategic resource situation regardless of human lives or similar.

    If you go with the guideline approach, you might end up being "right" in 50% of cases and wrong in the other 50% regardless of the guideline you choose. At least if you discuss an issue with a genuine concern for the people affected, you can claim you tried your best instead of hiding behind a standard MO while real humans actually get slaughtered by the millions in some cases.

    About Syria in particular I can only say that it seems really hard to decide with my knowledge, it's a very complex issue and I won't claim to know what is or would have been best. Some problems cannot be solved in a satisfactory way, but it may already help to try and support/shelter the civilian population as best as possible. The government usually has experts and intelligence services to help with such decisions. Of course if they just represent corporate interests...
    Saddam Hussein was undoubtedly slaughtering his subjects/citizens. How did that turn out when we intervened? Iraq is the definitive example of what happens when you intervene for what you reckon are good intentions, but there is enough of an implied argument that you did it for self gain. When that happens, as with Tony Blair, your reputation is destroyed. Shame, as he had enough of a track record of intervening for humanitarian purposes without prospect of gain (cf. Kosovo, and especially Sierra Leone). In the case of Sierra Leone, Blair's name is still gold in Africa, where his name is the guarantor of good intentions between states and NGOs. Things could be very much better if people would just accept that Blair made a mistake in judgement over Iraq, without attributing everything else that's been used to tarnish him. Still, what's done is done, and if people don't want another Iraq, then it means abandoning the Syrians (and Rohingyans) to their fate. Makes no difference to me either way.

  14. #44
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Saddam Hussein was undoubtedly slaughtering his subjects/citizens. How did that turn out when we intervened? Iraq is the definitive example of what happens when you intervene for what you reckon are good intentions, but there is enough of an implied argument that you did it for self gain. When that happens, as with Tony Blair, your reputation is destroyed. Shame, as he had enough of a track record of intervening for humanitarian purposes without prospect of gain (cf. Kosovo, and especially Sierra Leone). In the case of Sierra Leone, Blair's name is still gold in Africa, where his name is the guarantor of good intentions between states and NGOs. Things could be very much better if people would just accept that Blair made a mistake in judgement over Iraq, without attributing everything else that's been used to tarnish him. Still, what's done is done, and if people don't want another Iraq, then it means abandoning the Syrians (and Rohingyans) to their fate. Makes no difference to me either way.
    I see what you mean, though in 2003 Saddam wasn't slaughtering his citizens en masse IIRC. That's why the CIA came up with bogus reasons about WMDs and terrorist support after all. If we were to invade every country where the government kills some citizend every month, we'll have to invade the USA and China, too. Hussein should have been dethroned in the first Gulf War actually, but that was obviously not Blair's fault. I'm not sure whether Iraq was just an honest mistake though given the previously cited bogus reasons for the invasion. It might have been perceived much better if they had actually found any WMDs or proven that he supported Al Queda.
    I'll admit that I was in favor of the invasion back then and believed the WMD stuff. Then again I wasn't even allowed to vote yet and once it became clear that the reasons were bogus, I began to view things in a different light. Can't say I was ever sure about the whole "it was all about the oil" thing though, the left jumps to conclusions in these cases as well.


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  15. #45
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    I see what you mean, though in 2003 Saddam wasn't slaughtering his citizens en masse IIRC. That's why the CIA came up with bogus reasons about WMDs and terrorist support after all. If we were to invade every country where the government kills some citizend every month, we'll have to invade the USA and China, too. Hussein should have been dethroned in the first Gulf War actually, but that was obviously not Blair's fault. I'm not sure whether Iraq was just an honest mistake though given the previously cited bogus reasons for the invasion. It might have been perceived much better if they had actually found any WMDs or proven that he supported Al Queda.
    I'll admit that I was in favor of the invasion back then and believed the WMD stuff. Then again I wasn't even allowed to vote yet and once it became clear that the reasons were bogus, I began to view things in a different light. Can't say I was ever sure about the whole "it was all about the oil" thing though, the left jumps to conclusions in these cases as well.
    I opposed the invasion at the time because I researched the subject and concluded that, WMDs or not, al-Qaeda or not, there was little chance of the settlement turning out well, and a near certain probability of it turning out badly. I didn't oppose it because it was wrong. I opposed it because it was stupid. I did swallow the arguments on the US side about oil, but over time I've concluded that Bush was also motivated mainly by naive idealism. Blair was motivated more by the choice of backing our American allies or not, as they were going in anyway, with his idealism being the tipping factor. Personally, I'd have let the Americans do whatever they willed, without our hand in it as well.

  16. #46
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    I opposed the invasion at the time because I researched the subject and concluded that, WMDs or not, al-Qaeda or not, there was little chance of the settlement turning out well, and a near certain probability of it turning out badly. I didn't oppose it because it was wrong. I opposed it because it was stupid. I did swallow the arguments on the US side about oil, but over time I've concluded that Bush was also motivated mainly by naive idealism. Blair was motivated more by the choice of backing our American allies or not, as they were going in anyway, with his idealism being the tipping factor. Personally, I'd have let the Americans do whatever they willed, without our hand in it as well.
    The neocons in his admin had convinced him of the strategic value of the move.

    With both Afghanistan and Iraq dominated by US/NATO forces, Iran would be strategically 'pinned.'

    Moreover, the large bulk of the US officials were convinced that WMD work continued in Iraq, because we had sources that confirmed us that Saddam was receiving reports on such. We forgot, in our rush to judgement, that most of the government of a dictator tells him what he wants to hear as opposed to the facts. Since we knew he wanted to pursue them we assumed that all the inspectors were being fooled. We also based our intel on persons who had a grudge against Saddam and had their own agendas that included his removal.

    Combine that with good old fashioned selective listening and you get....A colossal intelligence miscue.

    We then promptly invaded, kicked over the apple cart, and waited for the spontaneous return to democratic freedom that we just KNEW was burning in the hearts of every Iraqi.

    Pretty much we were dumbunnies soup to nuts.
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  17. #47
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Don't forget that Saddam was also assuming that we wouldn't invade without a resolution via the UN Security Council. He'd thought that Bush was just playing hardball to get more access for the weapons inspectors and because he (Saddam) thought he'd had a weapons program he wouldn't allow that. End result Saddam thinks he's calling Bush's bluff and Bush thinks Saddam has a weapons program.

    The post-war planning I'll always lay on Rumsfeld, Paul Bremer, and GEN Franks. For a few months after the capture of Baghdad there was a window when we could have created the process for transition to a more democratic government but blew it due to poor policy decisions. De-Ba'athificiation, disbanding the Iraqi Army, and not really having a good plan to quickly restore infrastructure or re-establish law and order.

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    Stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do.
    Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.

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  18. #48

    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Not dead yet?
    Well with two armies bearing down from different directions, this seems a lock.
    Then again, without coordination and cooperation it could get ugly fast.
    Each side supports a narrative that paints the other as selfish invaders here to dispossess the people of the region. Trump's past comments about "...why didn't we just keep the oil..." probably don't help.
    Two armies, each with the goal of defeating ISIS; but are they allies, enemies or competitors?
    Once again, the lack of a coherent strategy for the region and the war, puts America (and its allies) in the position of "winning every battle enroute to losing the war.

    http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/04/...tate-us-assad/
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  19. #49
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by spmetla View Post
    Don't forget that Saddam was also assuming that we wouldn't invade without a resolution via the UN Security Council. He'd thought that Bush was just playing hardball to get more access for the weapons inspectors and because he (Saddam) thought he'd had a weapons program he wouldn't allow that. End result Saddam thinks he's calling Bush's bluff and Bush thinks Saddam has a weapons program.

    The post-war planning I'll always lay on Rumsfeld, Paul Bremer, and GEN Franks. For a few months after the capture of Baghdad there was a window when we could have created the process for transition to a more democratic government but blew it due to poor policy decisions. De-Ba'athificiation, disbanding the Iraqi Army, and not really having a good plan to quickly restore infrastructure or re-establish law and order.
    I'd have settle for a BAD plan to re-establish infrastructure and law and order. I don't think we even had that.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  20. #50
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    I'd have settle for a BAD plan to re-establish infrastructure and law and order. I don't think we even had that.
    Something like the British using Japanese soldiers to keep down the locals in the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia) in 1945? IIRC we did the same in French Indochina (Vietnam) as well.

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  21. #51
    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by HopAlongBunny View Post
    Not dead yet?
    Well with two armies bearing down from different directions, this seems a lock.
    Then again, without coordination and cooperation it could get ugly fast.
    Each side supports a narrative that paints the other as selfish invaders here to dispossess the people of the region. Trump's past comments about "...why didn't we just keep the oil..." probably don't help.
    Two armies, each with the goal of defeating ISIS; but are they allies, enemies or competitors?
    Once again, the lack of a coherent strategy for the region and the war, puts America (and its allies) in the position of "winning every battle enroute to losing the war.

    http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/04/...tate-us-assad/
    I am pretty sure that Assad and Syrian Kurds have some sort of understanding. It showed when Turkey pushed its "freedomfighters" to Northern Syria. Soon after Assad sent Syrian army troops to the Western edge of Syrian Kurdish area as shield from the Turkish backed forces.
    Ja Mata Tosainu Sama.

  22. #52
    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    A German lecturing a Briton on the evils of empire. What did you guys do with your last empire, may I ask?
    Can I lecture both of you? Our empire collapsed in the 14th century, after lasting a whopping 25 years.

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  23. #53
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sarmatian View Post
    Can I lecture both of you? Our empire collapsed in the 14th century, after lasting a whopping 25 years.
    I thought that was about par for the Balkans, post Alexandros.

    I suppose the Turks 'technically' were around longer, but their "empire" was a little slipshod.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  24. #54
    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Apparently ISIS capital Raqqa has fallen to SDF. Same day Kirkuk is falling to Iraqi/Iran forces at Iraq.One has to wonder what will now wait for the Syrian Kurdish forces as they have done their work.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/...ic_state_group
    Last edited by Kagemusha; 10-16-2017 at 14:52.
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  25. #55
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kagemusha View Post
    Apparently ISIS capital Raqqa has fallen to SDF. Same day Kirkuk is falling to Iraqi/Iran forces at Iraq.One has to wonder what will now wait for the Syrian Kurdish forces as they have done their work.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/...ic_state_group
    Aren't the Syrian front Kurds supposed to be the less "warm and fuzzy" branch?
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  26. #56

    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    It really is hard to capture what will happen next in a concise nugget.
    Stirring up rhetoric against Iran, just as ISIS seems tamed for the moment does not strike me as clever.
    The Middle East "A Machine of Many Moving Parts"; can you settle the simmer in Iraq without mollifying Iran? Probably not.
    The Kurds, spot their best chance at a state ever; they could be a proxy for anyone not interested in stability right now.
    The U.S. removed Saddam, is it up to the task of smoothing the Sunni/Shia divide without someone much like him? Again, that road probably runs through Iran.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...71.htmlhttp://

    For the Shia militias, times might be pretty good.
    "There is disorder under Heaven, and the situation is excellent"

    http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/18/...tting-started/

    Any policy that ignores Iran's interests is doomed to fail.
    Last edited by HopAlongBunny; 10-19-2017 at 06:46.
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  27. #57
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quote Originally Posted by HopAlongBunny View Post
    The Kurds, spot their best chance at a state ever; they could be a proxy for anyone not interested in stability right now.
    It is a mistake to consider Kurds as ones united in their cause. As the Kirkuk episode has shown, there are two major camps which are far from friendly to each other to say nothing of being united. So their opponents can use it to their end.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

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  28. #58

    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    Quite right.
    The problem still remains though. Choices need to be made.
    If the U.S. does not make and pursue goals, others will.
    Russia is perfectly willing to make the choices for them, so is Iran.
    As much as people (myself included) might bemoan the U.S. sticking its fingers in every pot, the other possibilities are not very attractive.

    http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/18/...al-about-iraq/
    Ja-mata TosaInu

  29. #59
    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ding! Dong! The Witch is Dead!

    It sure is a puzzle. Right now it seems that these guys are on the top of the game: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...Iraq_coalition

    Other big local players are Saudi- Arabia,Turkey and Israel. Outside the area the major one is US and Russia from RSII coalition. For US the only really reliable ally from these is Israel, but in turn everyone else at the area hate Israel.

    Saudi-Arabia tends to spawn wahhabist groups like Al Qaida, which is a big no no in the West.

    Turkey doesnt like anything concerning Kurds and is also problematic for the West, because of the bad relations with Greece and the dictator like politics of Erdogan..

    Iran is Iran. Russia is Russia. Syria and Iraq governments are now more or less puppets of the previously mentioned Russia and Iran.

    Kurdish in Iraq are divided after the humiliation at Kirkuk. KDP and Barzani family are hated by the people because of corruption and inability to do anything productive at the current crisis.KDP is blaming it all on PUK. At the same time PUK is tearing itself apart as part of PUK, namely the Talabani family is now seen as traitors and pro Iran even within PUK. Meanwhile the Gorran movement is demanding that both KDP and PUK should be stripped off power.

    The Syrian Kurdish are way too close with PKK from Turkey, which makes any close relations with them for the West a red cloth for Turkey.

    There are the pics for partners for the West. No matter what someone always gets upset.
    Last edited by Kagemusha; 10-19-2017 at 19:52.
    Ja Mata Tosainu Sama.

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