Well Wheres the Oil?

**Red Harvest** · 08-15-2005, 19:11

Originally Posted by Gawain of Orkeny

For any of you interested the price of oil us still cheaper than it was under Carter when all things are taken into consideration gas would have to top 3 dollars a gallon to reach those prices.

True, but only in the last couple of months of his administration (and into the Reagan admin as memory serves.) The spike was the result of the Iran-Iraq war that started in Sept. 1980 and the hostage crisis that began in Nov. 1979. The economy was a wreck partially as a result of this.

Those were "artificial" supply limitations caused by real disruptions of supply. At present, demand growth is the driver and that is something new.

Gas was $2.58 at the corner last night and the peak in '80 was below the $3 mark. So it looks like we are within 15% of the former peak. Let's hope we don't have any major events like those of 79 and 80. We could be looking at a further doubling.

**Gawain of Orkeny** · 08-15-2005, 22:07

I still think the government and the oil companies and opec are all in cahoots and getting rich. "He who controls the spice controls the universe"

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 08-15-2005, 22:17

[QUOTE=Red Harvest] Unlike those in the Admin, the oil industry, and yourself, I correctly predicted this run up 2 years ago (though not in its magnitude, I was sticking with trends), when all were saying it was headed the other way. I was looking at all the official projections and they flat out ignored the increasing demand side: China, India and U.S. It didn't make sense since we were seeing some recovery. I warned my own employer that their lack of interest in investment in certain areas was based on illogical projections of pricing trends from the industry. However, the herd instinct prevailed, as did the desire to accept rosy projections. It was the same all over.QUOTE]

I hope you got your futures buys in on time

**Gawain of Orkeny** · 08-15-2005, 22:21

I hope you got your futures buys in on time

He he I was thinking the same thing. He must have it made by now. I dont think any civilian can really know anymore than "they" want you to know.

**bmolsson** · 08-16-2005, 02:24

Just read that some experts predicts USD 160 per barrel...... This is not good....

**Papewaio** · 08-16-2005, 02:47

Who cares where the oil is. The oil companies are getting twice the gross amount per barrel in just one year (and their net is probably better then twice as much)... demand, demand, demand.

**kiwitt** · 08-16-2005, 03:23

Let see now. Companies make profits from selling. Selling the same amount for more = more profits.

Being a real cynic. Oil executives run the US Administration, invade Iraq, generate more instability. Instability increases price of oil (see Arab-Israeli conflicts for precedents). Higher price for oil = more profit for same amount of oil.

Therefore the real reason is not to get the oil but to raise the profits for oil companies.

**Red Harvest** · 08-16-2005, 04:39

Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

I hope you got your futures buys in on time

Unfortunately, I was not playing the futures market and am not presently. Wish I had, but futures are not something I've ever tried my hand at. Options trades, yes, but commodity futures, no. I was switching jobs, moving, and travelling during the critical times. Should have made a bundle. Live and learn.