Mini-Mafia [Concluded]

[Kagemusha]

I have absolutely nothing to go on, and you know it. In the other games it was always something at least...

I have exactly the same problem.Anyway we are going to kill an innocent person becouse there is no murder yet there are only couple Mafiosos planning a murder. This whole first round is just shooting at the Dark.One way would be like Drisos suggested vote in a circle so everybody gets a one vote so no one gets executed.

[Dutch_guy]

This whole first round is just shooting at the Dark.One way would be like Drisos suggested vote in a circle so everybody gets a one vote so no one gets executed.

I think that ultimately that would suite the mafia better, although there is absolutely no way of knowing that

[Crazed Rabbit]

Well, if we all voted for someone different, then the game wouldn't progress, would it? So the mafia would be stopped! Until Sasaki threatened us in some manner, I suppose, to move the game along.

Crazed Rabbit

[Kommodus]

Hm, I just did a quick simulation to determine whether or not it is in the villagers' interest to lynch someone before the first mafia strike.

The results are clear: it is not in their interest to do so. The villagers have a significantly better chance of winning if they wait until after the mafia have killed their first victim. Lynching someone prematurely will only hurt their chances.

Of course, the mafia still probably have an advantage, depending on whether a cop and/or doctor is present.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I'm not sure what math you used but it is clearly in the towns interest. If you don't lynch then tomorrow there will be 2 mafia and 4 townies. If you lynch a townie (2/3 chance) you will lose the game. If you lynch someone today and it's a townie you have a better chance at a mafia tomorrow (6/15 vs 5/15) plus you have the 2/7 chance from today.

Nevertheless, if you wish you may Vote:No Lynch. If we get 4 no lynch votes then no one will be lynched this round. But imo the better strategy is to bandwagon someone and see how they defend themselves etc.

[Silver Rusher]

EDIT: Sasaki beat me to it.

Sasaki's answer seems to be best here, so my vote stands.

[doc_bean]

wanders into thread

Your chances of lynching at least 1 mafia member in the first 2 days are 4/7 if you lynch someone today and only 1/3 tomorrow. I doubt the extra surviver can ever make up for that difference, what kind of simulation did you do Kommodus ?

[Crazed Rabbit]

Well, it seems that it is in our best interest to lynch someone, even if they aren't mafia.

However, that still leaves me with the prospect of picking from a bunch of people with barely anything to go on. So I must go with what little I have.

And the little I have points toward Silver Rusher. Not for his random vote for Drisos, but what appears to be his desire to not really discuss our votes, and just vote randomly. This is the crux of it; wanting to not talk about your vote. Doing this gives us nothing to hunt the mafia with. I also agree with GH's points earlier in this thread, on why his vote for Drisos looks like he wants a quick lynching.

From Sasaki's first post:

The idea is to promote discussion, lots of discussion.

Vote: Silver Rusher

Crazed Rabbit

[Silver Rusher]

Jeez, what can I now do in this situation? (trying to) Defend(ing) myself will obviously lead to a bigger case against me.

As this is the case, I will say one thing and then shut up until either I'm lynched or people realise I'm not guilty. If you lynch me, you will regret it.

[Kommodus]

Hm... I've just revisited my simulation, and realized that my initial results depend on how the end of the game is handled.

Suppose the game progresses like this: the mafia strike first, and the villagers execute an innocent. Then the mafia kill another, and the villagers execute a mafioso. After the mafia kill one more player, there would be two left - a mafioso and a villager - prior to the final voting round.

My simulation basically assumed a "ghost vote" in this event, resulting in an execution of one of the players at random. If this is not how the situation is handled, and the final mafioso is allowed to kill both players at the end, then the results of the sim would be reversed, and the villagers would want to execute someone first.

(For the record, my simulation is a small computer program that runs thousands of simulated games and calculates what percentage each side wins.)

That said, promoting discussion is always a good thing, regardless of the statistics.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

2nd Vote Count

Drisos 1 (Silver Rusher)
Silver Rusher 2 (General Hankerchief, Crazed Rabbit)
GeneralHankerchief 1 (Drisos)
Dutch_Guy 1 (Kagemusha)

not voting ( Sigurd,Dutch_Guy)


Kommodus, perhaps where you went wrong is in having the mafia kill first then the villagers lynch. It's the other way around.

[Kommodus]

Kommodus, perhaps where you went wrong is in having the mafia kill first then the villagers lynch. It's the other way around.

I realize that. I was trying to calculate whether or not the villagers actually want to lynch anyone this round.

If they do, they'll have a 2/7 chance of getting it right. Next round they'll have either a 2/5 or a 1/5 chance of getting it right, depending on whether they get it right the first round. Then, if a mafioso survives, they'll have one more chance at 1/3 odds.

If they don't lynch anyone this round, their first execution will have a probability of 2/6 of being right. Their second execution will have odds of either 2/4 or 1/4 of being right. The question is, do they get a third chance after the mafia's third kill, in the event that there remains one villager and one mafioso? If they do, they have a 1/2 chance of getting him. If not, then that means the mafioso was allowed to kill off two victims in the final round.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Ah see, they can't have 2/4 chance. If there's two mafia and two villagers left a mafioso will never be lynched because they just won't vote for eachother. So if there are equal numbers of mafia and town then the mafia wins.

[Kommodus]

Ah see, they can't have 2/4 chance. If there's two mafia and two villagers left a mafioso will never be lynched because they just won't vote for eachother. So if there are equal numbers of mafia and town then the mafia wins.

Ah... hm... so I take it a tie vote means no execution?

In that case, by all means, execute someone this turn.

[Sigurd]

This is a hard one…


My gut feeling says GH is mafia.
Sasaki might have given this role to GH as a thank you or for old time’s sake. That is if random assignment is not followed. It has not been mentioned as far as I see in any of Sasaki’s games.
Also I think GH reacted quite fast to Silver’s post. Possibly too fast.
Vote: Generalhankerchief


Dutch_Guy has the deciding vote

[Dutch_guy]

Hmm this is hard, with absolutely nothing to go on we're confined to guessing.

This is my best one, Vote:General Hankerchief

Oh and Sigurd, the roles are chosen randomly.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

3rd Vote Count

Drisos 1 (Silver Rusher)
Silver Rusher 2 (General Hankerchief, Crazed Rabbit)
GeneralHankerchief 3 (Drisos,Sigurd,Dutch_Guy)
Dutch_Guy 1 (Kagemusha)

not voting ( nobody )

[GeneralHankerchief]

As you all know, since there was an execution first nobody had anything to go on. I believe that Silver Rusher's post was extremely suspicious, so I now had something to go on. Excuse me for posting so fast. Jeez.

[Silver Rusher]

Well, if it's all that's needed here I guess I might as well:

Unvote: Drisos
Vote: GeneralHankerchief

[Orb]

That's four votes. GHC is dead. :)

[GeneralHankerchief]

Out of pure spite for that last post stating the obvious:

Unvote: Silver Rusher
Vote: Orb

[Sasaki Kojiro]

4th and final Vote Count

Drisos
Silver Rusher 2 (General Hankerchief, Crazed Rabbit)
GeneralHankerchief 3 (Drisos,Sigurd,Dutch_Guy, Silver Rusher)
Dutch_Guy 1 (Kagemusha)
Crazed Rabbit
Kagemusha
Sigurd

General Hankerchief has been executed. He was town.

Pm's please.

[Orb]

I can expect a really nasty execution for SR's game. *phew*

If I were you, I'd be looking at Dutch_Guy. He was awfully quick to bandwagon a useful player.

[Silver Rusher]

Heh, Orb isn't even playing...

[GeneralHankerchief]

I can expect a really nasty execution for SR's game. *phew*

Oh no, I don't carry grudges over to different games. Anyway, it doesn't matter because Silver asks me for the execution style before the kills are even up.

Anyways, congrats village. You're already a man down.

[Silver Rusher]

Anyways, congrats village. You're already a man down.

Well it's your fault for misguiding us by voting for me in such a suspicious way.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

During the night, Drisos (town) was killed.

With 5 alive it's 3 to lynch.

[Orb]

Sigurd and Dutch_Guy look suspicious to me.

[Dutch_guy]

Sigurd and Dutch_Guy look suspicious to me.

And why is that Orb ?

[Crazed Rabbit]

Well, I guess I should post here and not let the game die off.

GeneralHankerchief
SilverRusher
Dutch_Guy
Crazed Rabbit
Drisos
Kagemusha
Sigurd Fafsnesfifflebane

It appears voting GHC wasn't a good idea. We still don't have that much to go on, so maybe we should try and do the whole discussion thing again.

Right now I have a couple of suspicious persons in mind, but I want to hear some discussion first so we don't lynch another innocent person.

Crazed Rabbit