I took the PL ending as another example of the layers within layers approach to the movie. On the surface the rebels have a momentary fairy tale ending, having beaten back the offensive that was chasing them, but, as with the child, you have to remember they had already surrendered the goals of the revolution and the idea of victory and were only trying to escape into France. All of their dreams were already dead when the movie started, all that was left was to run away and tell each other, and the newborn, stale lies to try to deny their defeat.
I took Ofelia's story the same way, such that while she could trick, tease, and struggle to escape, she could not truly fight and in the end any thought of having a life, of victory, was simply a fantasy.
All little girls want to be
secret fairy princesses, but in the end they all
die.
IIRC del Toro called his movie 'profane,' and that's a pretty good description of what I saw as the core idea of the film, which could be simply put as
'Nobody gets out alive, but if you want to buy yourself some more time you're going to get blood on your hands. All else is fantasy.'
So IMHO you can't really say the rebels 'won' in the movie, just that a few of them did get out, for the moment, with their lives and their lies. Of course with any complicated, murky film there's going to be an element of the reviewer in the review, so take my interpretation with that in mind.
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