EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

[Husar]

a fetching lass to play the landlady's wife

I see you want to give this quite a modern spin.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I see you want to give this quite a modern spin.

But of course! Same sex is all the rage in the arts these days. lol

[HopAlongBunny]

The period farce would work :)
Showing my age, Mel Brooks could certainly do this justice; alas Madeline Khan is out as the "fetching beauty"
Colbert as the young chap from the country would work; he's kinda old but has the chops and sensibility.
So all we need is a present day Gene Wilder, Marty Feldman and Dom DeLuise to round out the troupe.

[Beskar]

Well, you do have Boris and Nigel as two prominent roles. David Cameron as the Cardinal. Theresa May as Lady De Winter?

This show would be a horror story.

[HopAlongBunny]

OMG! What have I been thinking!?
The Brexit Horror Picture Show

It's...it's all so obvious now



Trump as the "wild and untamed thing"?

[Fragony]

Less vocal and less airtime? The Brexit party is represented by around 90% of MPs in the Commons, as whipped by their leaders. No more needs to be said about the Tories. But the Labour party is led by a lifelong Eurosceptic who's led his party on the road he's always taken, against the EU and its predecessors (he was against the EEC).

So? That's democracy is at, not in MSM aka as satalites of Brexitfears (just made that one up)

[Pannonian]

So? That's democracy is at, not in MSM aka as satalites of Brexitfears (just made that one up)

And all the reassurances here of how Brexit will be fine for the UK come from a Dutchman. Are you going to partake of the delights of Brexit, BTW? Come over here, register as a UK citizen and give up your Dutch/EU citizenship, and you too can live outside the EU. And then the hypocrisy may not stink as much.

[Fragony]

And all the reassurances here of how Brexit will be fine for the UK come from a Dutchman. Are you going to partake of the delights of Brexit, BTW? Come over here, register as a UK citizen and give up your Dutch/EU citizenship, and you too can live outside the EU. And then the hypocrisy may not stink as much.

Nah, no need to say the exact same thing ad nausuem. Not coming, I don't like England, it's a naturally depressing place I don't want to live there. Because of that, not because of a brexit.

[Pannonian]

Nah, no need to say the exact same thing ad nausuem. Not coming, I don't like England, it's a naturally depressing place I don't want to live there. Because of that, not because of a brexit.

Such wonderful support for Brexit, from someone who never intended to have to face the consequences, which are for his inferiors, while he theorises from the safety of the EU. Reminds me of s like Nigel Farage, who has a career in the US to retreat to, while he pontificates on how Brexit will be wonderful for Britain.

[Fragony]

Such wonderful support for Brexit, from someone who never intended to have to face the consequences, which are for his inferiors, while he theorises from the safety of the EU. Reminds me of s like Nigel Farage, who has a career in the US to retreat to, while he pontificates on how Brexit will be wonderful for Britain.

My inferiors? Far from it. I would love a Nexit consequences be damned, but it just isn't realistic because the Netherlands is just too small, the resentment is high but the water too cold, we would need a partner like the UK. The Neherlands is really important for Germany's industry they will only hurt themselves really if they ask tarrifs because raw materials come through here, only Rotterdam can do that. Everybody in the trenches will tell you that the Dutch in general agree with the Brittish but obey the Germans. We can be your gate to Europe. EU must first fall of course. Far fetched, ofcourse. Possible? Why not. Northsea Union (minus France) for the win.

[Husar]

we would need a partner like the UK.

The NEU (Not the European Union)?

[Fragony]

The NEU (Not the European Union)?

Yes. Let's face it the EU is not going to survive in it's current form, it was never going to work. Time to take a very big loss of trillions of euro's that are never going to be payed back anyway. Brexit is a good start.

[Gilrandir]

I don't like England, it's a naturally depressing place I don't want to live there.

It is because, unlike in the Netherlands, the things that would make it less depressive are forbidden in the UK.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

It is because, unlike in the Netherlands, the things that would make it less depressive are forbidden in the UK.

Oh come on Gil,' everybody knows that the weather on the balmy South shores of the North sea is always cheerful compared to dreary old England off to the Northwest.

[Beskar]

Yes. Let's face it the EU is not going to survive in it's current form, it was never going to work. Time to take a very big loss of trillions of euro's that are never going to be payed back anyway. Brexit is a good start.

You say that, but at the same time you dislike the fix of a more integrated United States of Europe. Embrace your ever closer union, one which will become democratic as the vested interest of the nation state is eroded away.

[Pannonian]

We're 7 months into the 24 before the deadline is up, and we're nowhere near agreeing a start to negotiations, as we can't even describe in detail what our desired end state is, let alone the process towards achieving it. No deal is the nightmare scenario that every trade and industry spokesperson warned about last June, yet this is increasingly the most likely scenario at the end of those 24 months. And the Brexiters are still wedded to the dogma that what is bad for the EU must be good for the UK, and are doing all they can to hurt the EU, without considering consequences for the UK.

The 48% are warning that it is a bad idea to drink the Kool Aid. The 52% are saying, the will of the people must be respected, we must all drink the Kool Aid. Frag, an enthusiastic evangelist for the faith from outside the camp, says that there may be some initial pain, but it will all be worth it in the end. I enquire whether he'll be joining us in drinking said Kool Aid. He replies, heavens no, he doesn't even like the taste.

[rory_20_uk]

The EU has been clear: give loads of money because a pinkie promise is binding, sort out the Irish border and then, and only then will talks on a future trade deal be discussed - after the EU has sewn up everything they want... I'm not entirely sure how this is negotiation.

The EU is a political project, and so the UK has to suffer. Else others might join the heresy. Hell, Catalonia is getting jumpy and must see leaving as economic suicide, not a win-win.

With the "negotiations" there are only two likely outcomes - the UK capitulates, and we "leave" the EU but continue to follow all the rules, pay all the subs or we have a nasty hard exit with the EU doing all it can to ensure it is as painful for as long as possible so all other waverers realise the penalties of leaving the cult.

[Pannonian]

The EU has been clear: give loads of money because a pinkie promise is binding, sort out the Irish border and then, and only then will talks on a future trade deal be discussed - after the EU has sewn up everything they want... I'm not entirely sure how this is negotiation.

The EU is a political project, and so the UK has to suffer. Else others might join the heresy. Hell, Catalonia is getting jumpy and must see leaving as economic suicide, not a win-win.

With the "negotiations" there are only two likely outcomes - the UK capitulates, and we "leave" the EU but continue to follow all the rules, pay all the subs or we have a nasty hard exit with the EU doing all it can to ensure it is as painful for as long as possible so all other waverers realise the penalties of leaving the cult.

And yet the EU has been more conciliatory than the alternatives, such as North America, with the US and Canada promising to block proposed tariff splits agreed by the EU and UK. Ireland has also offered a solution to the NI-RoI border, with a soft land border, and all customs checks to take place only when trade enters mainland Britain. Has the UK suggested anything similarly concrete?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The EU has been clear: give loads of money because a pinkie promise is binding, sort out the Irish border and then, and only then will talks on a future trade deal be discussed - after the EU has sewn up everything they want... I'm not entirely sure how this is negotiation.

The EU is a political project, and so the UK has to suffer. Else others might join the heresy. Hell, Catalonia is getting jumpy and must see leaving as economic suicide, not a win-win.

With the "negotiations" there are only two likely outcomes - the UK capitulates, and we "leave" the EU but continue to follow all the rules, pay all the subs or we have a nasty hard exit with the EU doing all it can to ensure it is as painful for as long as possible so all other waverers realise the penalties of leaving the cult.

Several possibilities (list not exhaustive).

1. England agrees to the preconditions. This signifies that they can be hammered hard on all points as they are not capable of overcoming the EU's power.

2. England does not agree to the money but works out a sidebar with Erin to deal with that border issue via local agreement. England will have to absorb this level of standoff for some time though some second channel meetings will occur. Then the real negotiations will begin which will themselves be arduous.

3. England and the EU remain in this lockdown mode until such time as internal shifts in one of the parties make negotiations more necessary. That side will then have to make more concessions than planned. The EU believes this favors them, at least following May's electoral debacle, as they view the likely weakness will appear in England first, not in the EU.

4. England repudiates the deal and reverts to pre EEC modus operandi. This will hurt like a [insert your favorite metaphor here]. Eventually, trade will re-establish and will do so on terms reasonably favorable to England, however it will only do so once England has demonstrated a willingness to absorb the economic pain thereby engendered for several years.


Essentially, both sides are going for old school "see who blinks" diplomacy rather than anything win-win or nuanced. Keep holding out until one side demonstrates some degree of weakness and then force concessions.

[Pannonian]

Several possibilities (list not exhaustive).

1. England agrees to the preconditions. This signifies that they can be hammered hard on all points as they are not capable of overcoming the EU's power.

2. England does not agree to the money but works out a sidebar with Erin to deal with that border issue via local agreement. England will have to absorb this level of standoff for some time though some second channel meetings will occur. Then the real negotiations will begin which will themselves be arduous.

3. England and the EU remain in this lockdown mode until such time as internal shifts in one of the parties make negotiations more necessary. That side will then have to make more concessions than planned. The EU believes this favors them, at least following May's electoral debacle, as they view the likely weakness will appear in England first, not in the EU.

4. England repudiates the deal and reverts to pre EEC modus operandi. This will hurt like a [insert your favorite metaphor here]. Eventually, trade will re-establish and will do so on terms reasonably favorable to England, however it will only do so once England has demonstrated a willingness to absorb the economic pain thereby engendered for several years.


Essentially, both sides are going for old school "see who blinks" diplomacy rather than anything win-win or nuanced. Keep holding out until one side demonstrates some degree of weakness and then force concessions.

It's a bit worse than that. Most of our international agreements are via the EU, and once we leave the EU without any agreements, which looks increasingly likely to be the case, we revert to a state of no agreements with other countries. The EU is willing to fudge some things for convenience's sake, but the US has already shown that it sees this as an opportunity to screw the UK over for concessions elsewhere, and unlike the EU, the US isn't inconvenienced if the ex-EU UK turns out to be a basket case. And that's the US we're talking about. China will be considerably worse and more predatory. The EU are the only major trading bloc who will offer us any concessions whatsoever without significant concessions on our part (see the RoI's customs border offer).

[Gilrandir]

Several possibilities (list not exhaustive).

1. England agrees...

2. England does not agree...

3. England and the EU....

4. England repudiates....

I wonder what Scotland will say.

[Husar]

The EU has been clear: give loads of money because a pinkie promise is binding, sort out the Irish border and then, and only then will talks on a future trade deal be discussed - after the EU has sewn up everything they want... I'm not entirely sure how this is negotiation.

The EU is a political project, and so the UK has to suffer. Else others might join the heresy. Hell, Catalonia is getting jumpy and must see leaving as economic suicide, not a win-win.

With the "negotiations" there are only two likely outcomes - the UK capitulates, and we "leave" the EU but continue to follow all the rules, pay all the subs or we have a nasty hard exit with the EU doing all it can to ensure it is as painful for as long as possible so all other waverers realise the penalties of leaving the cult.

First there was a lot of talking about how important Mighty Britain is and how it can easily outcompete the EU, now it's just whining about how the EU is just a mean cult because it doesn't just bend over backwards.
Grow up!

[Seamus Fermanagh]

It's a bit worse than that. Most of our international agreements are via the EU, and once we leave the EU without any agreements, which looks increasingly likely to be the case, we revert to a state of no agreements with other countries. The EU is willing to fudge some things for convenience's sake, but the US has already shown that it sees this as an opportunity to screw the UK over for concessions elsewhere, and unlike the EU, the US isn't inconvenienced if the ex-EU UK turns out to be a basket case. And that's the US we're talking about. China will be considerably worse and more predatory. The EU are the only major trading bloc who will offer us any concessions whatsoever without significant concessions on our part (see the RoI's customs border offer).

Yes, well, our current CinC, in addition to being an asshat, is fond of deal-making and negotiations and very much plays them old school. He will try to extract concessions from weakness every time, and while intelligent is not (from what I have seen) much of a "long-term" thinker. UK should go public on him about how Trump is holding their feet to the fire even after trying to take some personal credit for Brexit (ludicrous as both his election and Brexit are symptomatic of the disgruntled mood of the respective electorates with the status quo ante, not any kind of coattails thing, but US Presidents trend towards narcissism so....) and not 'deal fairly.' Since the American public loves your accents for the most part and since Trump likes to appear to be a good deal maker, you can probably leverage him that way and get a more reasonable trade interaction across the pond.

[Pannonian]

Yes, well, our current CinC, in addition to being an asshat, is fond of deal-making and negotiations and very much plays them old school. He will try to extract concessions from weakness every time, and while intelligent is not (from what I have seen) much of a "long-term" thinker. UK should go public on him about how Trump is holding their feet to the fire even after trying to take some personal credit for Brexit (ludicrous as both his election and Brexit are symptomatic of the disgruntled mood of the respective electorates with the status quo ante, not any kind of coattails thing, but US Presidents trend towards narcissism so....) and not 'deal fairly.' Since the American public loves your accents for the most part and since Trump likes to appear to be a good deal maker, you can probably leverage him that way and get a more reasonable trade interaction across the pond.

Didn't the American public elect Trump for "America first", which he's duly implementing wrt the UK? Also, the UK ruling elite, including the right wing media barons, are willing to see the US screw the UK over without seeing any contradiction in their belief that being anti-EU is the patriotic stance. The whole of the UK's political language is geared towards being anti-EU, but the exact same moves from the US don't register with most of the public. See the accusations from rory above, who should be part of the educated professional class, but who expresses politics in that way: patriotism is anti-EU, not pro-UK. So the likes of Farage will take US dollars for screwing the UK over for American gain, yet is able to pose as the anti-EU patriot.

In other news, 120 MPs have demanded that David Davis, the minister in charge of Brexit, publish the impact studies that he'd commissioned for the likely effects of Brexit. One leaked study looks at agriculture, with 3 possible scenarios, one that results positively for British farmers, two with extremely bad to exceptionally bad results for British farmers, with the note that the positive result is extremely unlikely.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Didn't the American public elect Trump for "America first", which he's duly implementing wrt the UK?... .

Yes, but we're sentimental about you lot in a way that we are not with those who do not share our language. To a Trumpeteer, "America First" is more about curbing the illegals from our South, protecting US jobs from Chinese and Asian efforts to undercut every price bid, and (for some) not wasting aid dollars simply to line the pockets of various kleptocrats, etc. The latter is less well understood by the typical Trumpeteer, since they basically want all foreign aid ceased immediately and some would vote to defund the UN or even withdraw therefrom.

But, they don't really consciously see the UK as a problem. Ironically, current conditions make it easier for Trump to squeeze you than any number of more problematic 'partners.'

[rory_20_uk]

First there was a lot of talking about how important Mighty Britain is and how it can easily outcompete the EU, now it's just whining about how the EU is just a mean cult because it doesn't just bend over backwards.
Grow up!

You on something? Care to substantiate this verbal diarrhoea?

Get a grip!

[Husar]

You on something? Care to substantiate this verbal diarrhoea?

Of course not, should be quite clear.
Before Brexit there was all this talk about how Britain would be better off with immigration controls, how it could keep its money and how it's important enough to make trade great again on its own. And of course how terrible and only detrimental the EU is anyway. And now that Britain is supposed to deliver for a treaty, Britain is mostly whining about how unfair and nasty the EU is and how it's going to ruin Britain on purpose.

The question here is what did you expect? If you keep insulting your wife and then file for a divorce, would you expect her to skip the lawyer and give you 75%? Do you live in the same universe? And why does the country that kept arguing how competition is better anyway now whine when the EU acts in a competitive manner and turns out to be quite powerful? It's just pathetic...

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I wonder what Scotland will say.

They had their say. They voted 'No.'

[Pannonian]

They had their say. They voted 'No.'

London voted no too. But we'll have to live with the idiocy of Brexit, voted for by people who want to cut immigration. Despite immigration levels being inversely proportional to the strength of the Brexit vote: the whiter the population and the lower the immigration level experienced, the more they want to cut immigration.

[Beskar]