StarWars: Return of the Sith [Concluded]

[TinCow]

Next...

Unvote; Vote: Centurion1

[TinCow]

Time for an empirical analysis.

Confirmed not Starting Sith:
TinCow (Belth Allusis) - Roleblocked N8 when there were 2 Sith Kills, attacked by Sith on N12
Psychonaut (Obi-wan) - Roleblocked N9 when there were 2 Sith Kills, Roleblocked & Drained N10 when there was 1 Sith Kill
johnhughthom (Anakin Skywalker) - Roleblocked N12 when there were 2 Sith Kill Attempts

Very unlikely to be Starting Sith:
Diamondeye (Qui-gon) - Numerous night actions visible in the thread, including multiple nights with 2 visible actions while there were 2 Sith Kills
Choxorn (?) - Replacement Player
splitpersonality (Sifo-Dyas) - Replacement Player

Unlikely to be Starting Sith:
Askthepizzaguy (?) - Scanned earlier in the game as susceptible to the Dark Side, which was a different result than was returned against Niklas

Possible Starting Sith:
pevergreen (?) - Scumtastic, but has Niklas' unvote during the tie vote day in his favor.
Subotan (Streen) - Drained N11, unknown whether that impacts Sith kill ability

Likely Starting Sith:
Centurion1 (?)


Please help fill in any evidence I am missing that moves people up or down on this list.

[atheotes]

Unlikely to be Starting Sith:
Askthepizzaguy (?) - Scanned earlier in the game as susceptible to the Dark Side, which was a different result than was returned against Niklas



Please help fill in any evidence I am missing that moves people up or down on this list.

I believe the scan on ATPG was different from the scan on Niklas (drain)

Centurion is a good lynch choice since we have next to no info on him. But pizza must be drained during the night.
Vote: Centurion

[ULC]

What of a plan of lynch Centurion1, then drain/roleblock two of 3 top suspects, then proceed to lynch the third if nothing comes up?

[Centurion1]

oh please im just a lazy lurker who cant be bothered to read the 81 pages yall put up in my rl time.

im a padawn.

but no go ahead and lynch me........ lets see what goes down.

vote: centurion1

[Renata]

YLC gets confirmed one night killed the next. *shakes head*

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why do you not block me as suggested already? I do not believe the drain does anything more than removing of a power. To me it would seem we would not be so fortunate as to have two blocking powers remaining. Use the block, that is more conclusive in my opinion.

Go ahead and drain me if necessary. If you were trying to be thorough you should block me instead, however. Unless someone knows something I don't about the drain. If it investigates, have at it, but remember I have the stealth power so that's still not conclusive.

I don't trust you guys. Nothing short of a block will convince you.

oh please im just a lazy lurker who cant be bothered to read the 81 pages yall put up in my rl time.

im a padawn.

but no go ahead and lynch me........ lets see what goes down.

vote: centurion1

There's both WIFOM here, and nothing to lead us to a better suspect. Not good. How about telling us who you are?

[pevergreen]

pevergreen (?) - Scumtastic, but has Niklas' unvote during the tie vote day in his favor.

I take offence good sir!

Scumtastic indeed.

edit: if the question mark is my name, I'm Kyp Durron, check the tie writeup with me and Niklas. Sigurd put two names in, one was him, the other is me...

One of my earlier posts is also alluding to that fact, but in a way in which none of you would understand.

[naut]

I do not believe the drain does anything more than removing of a power.

IIRC the one Diamondeye has takes a power and checks alignment.

pever, the fact you were in the write-up means nothing. Niklas was also in the write-up, he was "Den Siva".

[Askthepizzaguy]

IIRC the one Diamondeye has takes a power and checks alignment.

But I do not know if Force Stealth counters that alignment check. Does Diamondeye know? If you do this, will I still be lynched anyway? I'm just saying one is more forceful and conclusive than the other. I'm not willing to leave any avenue open to the slight possibility of me still being a Sith in anyone's mind. Preferably while I am still alive.

Happy 7,000 my Rythmic friend.

[naut]

What of a plan of lynch Centurion1, then drain/roleblock two of 3 top suspects, then proceed to lynch the third if nothing comes up?

Good plan.

vote: centurion1

[naut]

But I do not know if Force Stealth counters that alignment check. Does Diamondeye know? If you do this, will I still be lynched anyway? I'm just saying one is more forceful and conclusive than the other. I'm not willing to leave any avenue open to the slight possibility of me still being a Sith in anyone's mind. Preferably while I am still alive.

Yes, of course a roleblock is more conclusive, by the very nature of it's purpose, blocking roles.

Happy 7,000 my Rythmic friend.

Cheers. Now to catch up to you.... or not.

[TinCow]

YLC gets confirmed one night killed the next. *shakes head*

Not a coincidence.

IIRC the one Diamondeye has takes a power and checks alignment.

This would be a good time to post all of your results Diamondeye.

[pevergreen]

But I do not know if Force Stealth counters that alignment check.

By invoking force Stealth your force susceptibility is hidden from prying force sensitive players.

Imma say, yes?

[Diamondeye]

What he said.

I was told it could hide me from alignment scans as well. Too little too late, as I said before. Being a known susceptible makes it worthless to me. Is yours different from mine somehow? Or did I overlook that part?

Vote: Johnhughthom unless I hear he was blocked as I requested.

Confirmed in case you needed that.

Not a coincidence.
This would be a good time to post all of your results Diamondeye.

I haven't gotten results from tonight (block john, scan spl1t), so I can't post them yet... The other results are as follows;

As you interrogate Subotan (Streen), you sense there is not much of interest in his mind. You find it difficult to read alignment, he is most likely not susceptible to the dark side.

You already have the Breath Control ability, and you find the knowledge in Streen. You remove it from his memory.

Sigurd

You go to Psychonaut and block him and then interrogate him.
You learn nothing much from Psychonaut and he has no available attack abilities. Neither does he have any protecting abilities or anti lynch abilities.
You learn that he could be susceptible to the dark side but it is hard to tell.

Sigurd

You visit with Den Siva (Niklas) and use force interrogation on him.

You sense the control breath ability in him and take if from him.
You also sense that he has other abilities, but they are shrouded from you.
You dig deeper but recoil as disturbing images of dying Jedi flashes before you. This Den Siva is not only susceptible to the dark side of the force, the dark side is very present in him.

(updating your role tomorrow when I get the game documents).

Sigurd

You go to Atris to use the force to interrogate her.

- She is dead when you arrive. Sadly you weren’t quick enough to heal her.

Sigurd

I'm going to go with vote:pevergreen, although Cent is definitely worth considering as well.

Waiting for results on Split but I suspect they do not change the picture or Sigurd would have been alarmed.

[Askthepizzaguy]

As you interrogate Subotan (Streen), you sense there is not much of interest in his mind. You find it difficult to read alignment, he is most likely not susceptible to the dark side.

This should be followed up on. Any Sith Lord worth his salt should be able to defend himself from these scans. This is a major clue that you need to be more thorough. If I and others can defend against scans, then the Sith Lord most certainly can. Sith Lords are also notoriously difficult to read.... Palpatine moved among Jedi Masters all the time and none seriously suspected him until it was too late.

Do not be too hasty in striking him from the suspect list. He should be blocked.

[Askthepizzaguy]

As a matter of fact, I'm going to place a bet on him.

unvote, vote: Subotan

[johnhughthom]

Vote: Cent

[Ibn-Khaldun]

ATPG, in that case you should vote for Psychonaut as well since it is said:

You learn that he could be susceptible to the dark side but it is hard to tell.

So, there is no clue in there. You find clues where there are none.

[ULC]

I'm with Pizza on this one - think about it, it either says yes, no or maybe. Subotan's just seems quite out of the ordinary, both empty, yet full capable of obfuscating an investigation. Also, did Pyschonaut claim two other defensive abilities, besides the anti-lynch one? Why would Sigurd claim he had no more?

However, before we all just jump on Subotan, lets let DE post this nights block and scan - see if there aren't any similarities.

[Askthepizzaguy]

A summary of my case, since Subotan earlier asked for a case against him besides all the repeated and unnecessary and characteristically scummy usage of the word "we", so I will.


Here's his activity all game, with my commentary. 80posts per page.



Subotan

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Page 1:
pre-game commentary

Page 2:
Vote: Lord Winter
quick to accept my Godfather theory.

Safest possible vote.

Page 3:
Nothing

Page 4:
Against mass role reveals
Against networks
Vote: Beskar

Agreeing too easily with role reveal and network sentiment. Seemed contrived and meant to blend in.

Page 5:
Post 323- unhelpful and bad theory
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2469581

This theory strikes me as quite misleading in retrospect.

Page 6
Vote: ATPG

Bandwagons me, which scum do.

Page 7
Defends ACIN
Anti-bandwagon post
"I notice how a lot of those people swoop down like bats onto other voters when they vote without any reasoning."
After bandwagoning me- interesting.
Overreaction to lynch of Hoth- feels entirely fake.
"Good Job Team".
Anti-network stance seems like overacting.

Anti-bandwagon stance is internally inconsistent with his bandwagoning of Beskar and myself. He's not being honest. He's also quite melodramatic (rich coming from me, I am sure, but it is not characteristic of Subotan to be this way. it seems fake)

Page 8:
So you're saying that we shouldn't be concerned if someone is revealed to be, say, Palpatine?
Spreads baseless anti-Zabrak fear.
Vote:AVSM

His arguments to-date have all been designed to lead us the wrong way. Especially with regards to Zabraks and Palpatine. Then he returns to the safest possible vote.

Page 9:
Post 738 feels like overacting.
Spreads more anti-AVSM sentiment.
Spreads more anti-Beskar sentiment.

AVSM won't defend himself, and Beskar is being attacked at too many angles to narrow down to Subotan.

Page 10-11:
Also, we don't know who Mace Windu is, as he isn't trying to organise the town on the sole basis of "Hey guys I'm unlynchable trust me".
More of the same warrantless anti-Dooku sentiment.
"We shouldn't be confiding in anyone at all who isn't 100% pro-town. Anyone who isn't and suggests that we should be confiding in them alone should be treated with suspicion, as you rightly are"
Captain paranoia?
Vote: Beskar
"Both of those are the most likely outcomes. Either Beskar has converted, voluntarily or not, or there is a Sith in his network. The only other possibility is that we have a very lucky Sith, which is unlikely."
Stating the obvious.

Page 12:
Psycho, who should we be voting for then?
I highly doubt that Beskar is permanently unlynchable, especially if he is convertible.
Nevermind, Niklas beat me to it.

Page 13:
"Not be Beskar or ATPG"
Clearly nervous about both players.
"Of course, it is "scummy" to be voting for Beskar when there is loads of evidence piled up against him, but just the done thing when it's done to Belisaurus when he hasn't even been given a chance to respond"
Seems to be arguing based solely on fear, irritation, or other emotions.
"Now, we are now doing exactly that to Belisaurus. Sith-hide-much?"

Doesn't feel like realistic investigatory statements. He's too quick to bandwagon and follow, he's aggressive but spineless. Willing to bend to whoever is trusted, and be more aggressive than one expects from a vanilla townie at this stage. Everything is more dramatic than natural.

Long period of silence.

Page 18-19:
Vote: AVSM
Less lurking, more lynching

His voting pattern so far is utterly atrocious. He puts votes only on people who are later Wogged, lynched, or myself.

Page 20:
Post 1527 is interesting.

Page 21:
Vote: Thermal

Here he contradicts earlier sentiments he gave about "swooping in and voting without reasons."

Page 22:
HOS: Joooray

Feels totally unnatural and out of place. You don't see him doing this HoS stuff very much. After being called on it's utter bizarreness, he doesn't do it again.

Page 23:
Vote: Greyblades

Page 24:
Vote: Autolycus
Vote pevergreen

No realistic rhyme or reason here. Ends up sparing Niklas of the lynch, too.

Page 26:
No vote.

Page 27:
So basically ATPG, you're saying we shoould all follow your opinion.

Page 28:
Vote: W_E
I don't think we should lynch Diamondeye"

Odd voting pattern, then defending Diamondeye. Seems to be trying to act pro-town by sucking up to DE.

"It's a waste of a lynch. There are scummier individuals such as pevergreen and WE who don't have the alibis that Diamondeyes has. We should investigate him tonight, or if anyone else can, drain that lynch ability from him if you're concerned."

Attempts to control who gets investigated.

Page 29:
I would like to hear ATPG's case for me being Sith. Something more substantial than the use of the word "We", please.
Post 2295: "I do have a better method. I am Streen, and I was investigated last night. I am not sure who it was who investigated me, but they will be able to vouch for me when they come online."
Vote: John
As if that investigation proved anything. Then wagoning my suspect John?

I cannot find any townie thought process that Subotan is using. He's simply voting for whoever is convenient.

Page 30:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2482571

This entire post reeks of guilt.


Plus he triggered mine and several other people's scum-dar earlier in the game for spending too much time playing the Nintendo "we". Then this investigation is nowhere near conclusive.

Analysis of his discussion contributions leads to the following:

1. First half of the game, he votes as safely as possible and makes statements which blend in to extant anti-reveal and anti-network sentiment. His voting pattern here is so bad, I can't explain it any other way than classic scum suspicion avoidance tactics. Going after AVSM and Lord Winter, and easy punching bags like Beskar and myself (only when popular, mind you!) is extremely bad.

2. Second half of the game, his votes usually have no reasons attached, nor do they make much sense. His suspects are varied and almost always end up dead soon thereafter, by lynch or murder. This is a noticeable shift in his voting strategy, right about the time Niklas dies.

3. His proposed theories all game long have been dead wrong, the kind of wrong which results in delays if you follow his reasoning. Damaging theories which if we followed, we might have been in even worse shape. I mention some in my above analysis.

4. Occasional mentions of Niklas' posts, in terms of "oh good, he did a tally" but that's the extent of his focus on Niklas. He acknowledges his name and his presence in the thread, in a curious way. Those little comments betray a consciousness of Niklas in particular in the game, but a desire to avoid accusing him or interacting with him too heavily. Later he helps create the tie that spares Niklas, by voting for pevergreen, which he doesn't even follow up on the next day.

5. He's focused on me in particular, in an inconsistent way. At times he's annoyed I'm even alive, and is quick to bandwagon me. Then, in at least TWO reversals, he suddenly agrees with my analysis or votes for who I say. But the quick shift to buddy-buddy doesn't seem sincere, because he then seems annoyed by the idea of anyone listening to me. Frequent mentions of things like "oh sure, ATPG is always right " but then, whenever it is convenient, he will quickly vote for my suspect.

6. Other internal inconsistencies. He hates networks and bandwagoning, yet he is willing to follow the network's advice whenever it is convenient for him. He also bandwagons like a mother. He says and then does the opposite.

7. He's very defensive, and aggressive at the same time, but his offense seems totally contrived and his defense seems nervous. He's quick to paint himself as part of the group with words like "team" and "we" and also offer suggestion as to who gets investigated or blocked. Granted I do that as well, but he's almost as assertive in that regard as me. If he was such a vanilla townie, I would suspect he would be fine with whatever the town network came up with, especially given the fact he doesn't want to work with them this game. Oh wait... he does.

With an investigation result like that, I think you've found your Sith Lord. If you don't lynch him, you must block him.

[TinCow]

I haven't gotten results from tonight (block john, scan spl1t), so I can't post them yet... The other results are as follows

Do you have any of Chaotix's results?

Unvote; Vote: Subotan

On the short list, let's explore ATPG's case for a little while. Worth noting though that both Subotan and Centrurion1 voted pever during the pever/Niklas tie. Whichever is not lynched today needs to be blocked tonight.

[Centurion1]

Oh wow that's an intensive investigation [Bunvote; vote: subotan][/B]

[Centurion1]

Oh and my name is mas amedda a padawan I'm one of those twileks? I believe

[Askthepizzaguy]

[Bunvote;]

I vote for cinnamon, extra icing.

[Subotan]

Why is such a definite investigation as the one above being used as "proof" that I am scum? "Most likely not susceptible" is about as good as it appears it’s going to get in this game, especially when compared to the other investigation results revealed, particularly when compared to Niklas’.

And ATPG, you’re being unfair. If my posts appear inconsistent, then it is because my understanding of the game changes. Look, you say that my vote for Beskar “Seemed contrived and meant to blend in.”. Sure, now that we all know that Beskar was in fact a Jedi master my posts look silly, but after several people who had revealed to Count Dooku were killed by the Sith, it wasn’t difficult to be tricked by Niklas and connect the dots. You’re a good enough player to know that we don’t have all of the information all throughout the game, so obviously as some of my ideas are proved wrong and I subsequently change my opinion, it is going to look in hindsight as if I am being inconsistent.

You ignore context throughout your posts. You say my vote for Thermal Mercury was “contradictory”, just after commenting on my analysis as to why I thought TM was scum! Likewise, you frown upon my attempts to “control who is being investigated”; coming from you of all people! Meanwhile, Cent1 wanders on, apparently blissfully oblivious to the debate surrounding the fact that he has contributed nothing to the whole game. I have seen enough of Cent's behavious to see that he is clearly not pro-town, and his response to the accusations made against him was pitifully inadequate. Even if he's not a Sith, it's better to not have someone around who can easily be misled by one of them.

Vote:Centurion1

[TinCow]

Subotan, why did you feel the need to compose that reply in Microsoft Word?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why is such a definite investigation as the one above being used as "proof" that I am scum?

It's an investigation, which is explicitly not conclusive. It says "most likely", it does not say "absolutely".

You find it difficult to read alignment, he is most likely not susceptible to the dark side.

Difficult to read? And why is that? Is that because you have some power that protects you from investigations, Subotan? Why would he have a hard time reading you correctly. Can you shed some light on that?

"Most likely not susceptible" is about as good as it appears it’s going to get in this game, especially when compared to the other investigation results revealed, particularly when compared to Niklas’.

Niklas' result was more conclusive. But if you have a protection from investigation, then yours will not be conclusive.

"This Den Siva is not only susceptible to the dark side of the force, the dark side is very present in him."

And ATPG, you’re being unfair. If my posts appear inconsistent, then it is because my understanding of the game changes.

That's one explanation.

Look, you say that my vote for Beskar “Seemed contrived and meant to blend in.”. Sure, now that we all know that Beskar was in fact a Jedi master my posts look silly, but after several people who had revealed to Count Dooku were killed by the Sith, it wasn’t difficult to be tricked by Niklas and connect the dots.

A townie has no knowledge of who will be murdered at night.

A mafia has an idea who he will murder at night. Over the course of the game, the mafioso will have subconsciously revealed that they, apparently, have ESP. Those who they vote for tend to end up dead, unless that person is likely to be lynched. Usually, a mafioso murders those who don't seem likely to be lynched, or those who are apparently important townie roles. The reason is, you don't want to leave alive a person you've been accusing and isn't likely to be lynched. Eventually they will vote for you.

Your voting pattern to date indicates that you have ESP.

Not only have you been completely off the mark regarding who is or isn't scummy, but you've also given very bad advice and you've also been able to predict who lives and who dies.

Everything is proceeding as you have foreseen, yes? Your dark side is showing.

You’re a good enough player to know that we don’t have all of the information all throughout the game, so obviously as some of my ideas are proved wrong and I subsequently change my opinion, it is going to look in hindsight as if I am being inconsistent.

Not that often, and not based on no reason at all.

Explain why you switched your vote to pever on the Niklas tie round. Explain all your other votes since then.

Likewise, you frown upon my attempts to “control who is being investigated”; coming from you of all people!

Do you seriously expect me to consider myself a real suspect? Others may, and they may block me to satisfy those fantasies. But I am not delusional.

Meanwhile, Cent1 wanders on, apparently blissfully oblivious to the debate surrounding the fact that he has contributed nothing to the whole game. I have seen enough of Cent's behavious to see that he is clearly not pro-town,

ORLY. Centurion1 may have contributed nothing, but he's been far less damaging to our efforts than you have. All your bad theories, bad votes, and good predictions about who will live and who will die have created a black aura around you.

and his response to the accusations made against him was pitifully inadequate. Even if he's not a Sith, it's better to not have someone around who can easily be misled by one of them.

Better still to have someone around who isn't trying actively to manipulate the vote tally or convince people all game of things which aren't true.

Vote:Centurion1

You'd best bring more than your little lightning bolts to the showdown with me tonight, Subo.

[Subotan]

I'm in college (High School), and when I'm on the school computers, I often time-out whilst writing a post.

[pevergreen]

Would the formatting carry over?