I could, but I don't think it would be very persuasive to people. I can say it in general terms, to aid people in understanding that there was thought put into it.
It's largely experience and instinct, based on paper thin first impressions, understanding of what I'd do if scum in this setup, what most players would do, and my analysis of the people inside my own faction who I don't want to name. I think I have a 70/15/5/5/5/0 read on my group based on their reactions to my opening posts there. The odds also just favor the votes being almost entirely on townies at the moment, if they were random, and they're not. The mafia's votes aren't random and even though most of ours are semi-random, there will also be biases regarding not necessarily piling votes on one's own faction members this early. Scum would likely be voting outside their own faction here, on a townie. I'd even put the odds of them voting for each other as higher than voting inside their own faction on a townie. That goes against the strategy of manipulating one's seeming faction-mates, it also draws attention and is therefore probably counterproductive.
I haven't caught anyone, I just haven't found some people to be showing revolutionary colors yet. I'm working from a town-down perspective and including some gut suspicions into the bottom 4.
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