In my earlier readings of history the account of the Mongol invasion of Japan was brief. It usually read something like this: The Mongols asked the Japanese to submit peacefully. The Japanese refused. The Mongols then assembled a mighty armada and tried to take Japan by force, but before they succeeded a hurricane swooped down and wiped out the fleet, saving the Japanese from the cruel domination of the Mongols. The end.
This leaves a lot of questions in my mind though. The Japanese themselves are known as a fierce, warlike people. The 13th century for Japan was a time of shoguns and samurai. 5 Surely it would have been a difficult country to subdue. On the other hand we are talking about the Mongols. We're talking about an army that shattered the heart of the Islamic empire. We're talking about a group that beat the Russian army during the winter, and decimated the Teutonic Knights in Poland.4
So my big question is this,
If that hurricane hadn't occurred, would the Mongols have won, or
would they have died anyway under the swords of the samurai?
In this paper I have gathered many facts and come up with a possible
answer.
History
First of all it should be known that there were two Mongol invasion
fleets and on both occasions they were destroyed by a hurricane. In my
speculations I will only assume that the second hurricane did not occur. Now I
will recount the events leading up to that second hurricane. While doing my
research I found many ambiguities and some contradictions. 700 years have
clouded the facts. The Japanese who recorded the events naturally tended to
exaggerate, and the few Mongols, Koreans and Chinese who survived didn't feel
like writing it down. I noticed that modern historians who write about the
Mongols tend to skip over this part. This account is what I feel from my
research to be what most likely happened.
In 1268 Mongol envoys arrive in Japan with a message from the Mongol ruler, Kublai Khan. In the past Japan was considered too small and out-of-the-way to be worried about on the Asian mainland. No one is sure why Kublai Khan decides to bother with Japan now. Perhaps it is because the Mongols are currently fighting the Sung Dynasty in southern China, and the Japanese have good trade relations with the Sung and might offer military help. In any case, the message politely suggests that friendly relations be established. It is also subtly insulting and it hints that war will occur if the Japanese refuse.3
The Japanese at this time have two centers of power. The apparent ruler is the emperor, living in Kyoto. The real ruler is the military Regent Bakufu in Kamakura. The emperor is terrified. He has heard tales from the Sung about Mongol atrocities and their military skill. But the Bakufu is insulted and defiant. The envoys are sent home without a reply, snubbing Kublai Khan's offer. Both countries prepare for war. 3
The Mongols organize a fleet in Korea. The area was then know as the Kingdom of Koryu, a vassal state of the Mongols. Koryu has been racked by centuries of fighting and is impoverished. It takes years to build a fleet and find troops and supplies to put on it, but in November of 1274 The fleet is finally ready. 900 ships set sail with roughly 25,000 Mongol soldiers and 15,000 Koreans.3
Japan has no deep sea ships to speak of, so the fleet heads toward Japan unhindered. They first attack the island of Tsushima. The 100 man garrison is slaughtered. Next the island of Iki falls. Again, every single soldier of the garrison is killed.
On November 19th or 20th the fleet arrives at the main Japanese island of Kyushu. They land at Imazu on Hakata Bay.2
The Bakufu has had spies in Koryu3 and has a force of 6-10,000 samurai waiting at Hakata Bay, but the samurai are unfamiliar with the organized tactics of the Mongols and are hit hard by the Mongol artillery. The fighting is fierce all day but the Mongol forces make steady progress. Japanese reinforcements are organized to be sent to Hakata Bay and there is a summons throughout the country to help repel the invaders. By the time help arrives, though, the fighting is over. As night approaches the surviving defenders have been pushed back to the outskirts of Hakata, the modern-day city of Fukuoka. Then the Mongols reembark on their ships and put to sea.
Some historians say that the fierce storm clouds gathering caused the Mongols to reembark, but it doesn't make sense to me that they would get on a ship while a storm threatened. A better explanation is that the invaders had learned the hard way not to let the samurai get within sword-fighting range. They feared a counter-attack when the darkness made their artillery useless, so they took to the safety of their ships. To cover their retreat, they burned the shrine at Hakazaki and other villages along the coast.
The storm clouds become a hurricane. It tears through the area, scattering or sinking the ships. 200 ships are sunk and 13,000 soldiers never return to Koryu.2
The first invasion is over.
In 1279 the Sung Dynasty in southern China falls to the
Mongols. 6 Now Kublai Khan once again turns to Japan. This time he wants revenge
for the earlier defeat. He sends more envoys with a demand for the Japanese to
surrender. The Bakufu beheads them. The defeated Sung army and navy are now
included as part of the new invasion force Kublai organizes.
Two fleets are made ready. In Koryu, the force consists of 900 ships with 30,000 Mongols soldiers and 10,000 Koreans. In Southern China, 3,500 ships are prepared carrying 100,000 Chinese soldiers. 5 In comparison, the mighty Spanish Armada, 300 years later, consisted of 130 ships and 27,500 men.
The Bakufu has not been idle, however. While spies kept watch on the mainland, a wall is built around Hakata Bay. The wall is 13 miles long and about 8 feet high. It is vertical facing the bay but the inland side is angled to allow horses to climb it.5 Defenses are also built elsewhere, and soldiers are stationed at Hakata, Nagato and other areas along the western coast and the inland sea.
Meanwhile, the fleet in China is delayed. The Northern fleet at Koryu decides not to wait for them, and sets sail on 22 May, 1281. Again Tsushima is the first target. The resistance is much stronger this time, but the island soon falls. Then Iki is overrun. The Northern fleet is supposed to rendezvous here with the Southern fleet, but instead it heads straight for Hakata Bay.5
The Japanese are waiting for them. Almost 100,000 soldiers are in Kyushu, and a reserve force of 20,000 more is in southern Honshu. 2
A small diversionary force sails north towards Honshu, but on the 23rd of June the main body lands on Shiga Spit to the north of Hakata Bay and at the north end of the wall.2 The defenders stop them dead. After several days of fighting only one unit manages to get a beachhead. While the invasion is stopped at land, the Japanese strike back at sea.
Although the Japanese do not have deep-sea vessels, they do have a large collection of coastal fishing boats. These are now loaded up with soldiers and hit-and-run attacks are made on the Mongol fleet. Night and day, individual boats are boarded, the crew killed, and the ship burned. These tactics are so effective that the Mongols begin to lash their ships together and lay planks between the ships to help repel attacks. 3
For a week attempts are made to land, but they are all fiercely thrown back. Finally, the fleet retreats to Iki. During this time a fever runs through the ships. The soldiers have been forced to stay on the cramped ships since they couldn't land. The Mongols have also been renowned for their lack of hygiene, and to make it worse they have brought their precious horses across the sea with them. In these unsanitary conditions 3,000 men die of the fever.5
One of the leaders, General Hong, wants to give up now, but General Kim argues that they still have two months rations. The Northern fleet stays at Iki and waits for the Southern fleet to arrive. 3
The fleet from China arrives a few squadrons at a time. One squadron attacks and seizes the island of Hirado Jima while another group links up with the Korean fleet at Iki on 16 July. It is decided the next attack will be made further south. The ships at Iki move to Hirado Jima, where the entire fleet is assembled on 12 August. They move in and take the island of Takashima at the mouth of the Imari Gulf.
The hurricane strikes on 15 August. This time 4,000 ships are lost and 100,000 men are dead.2
The main islands of Japan are never again invaded.
Analysis
James Murdoch writes
in History of Japan that the first Mongol invasion using only 40,000 men had no
chance of succeeding because a conservative estimate puts the number of Japanese
fighting men in 1274 at 400,000. I have to agree with that. If Japan had been an
unorganized group of feifdoms or if the Japanese were a people that could be
easily frightened then maybe a force of 40,000 could succeed, but the fact was
that Kublai Khan never bothered to find out much about the Japanese and decided
that 40,000 could easily do the job. So the analysis that follows will be
considering whether the second attack could have succeeded, not the first. Each
factor that I consider important will be looked at separately.
Leadership
When the first envoys arrived in
Japan in 1268, a new Regent had just taken office. His name was Hojo Tokimune,
and he was eighteen years old at the time. He was also smart, proud and a good
organizer. He took over a stable, centralized military government. He was
responsible for the defenses which were built and the troops which were
gathered. He gathered intelligence information, and persuaded the religious
authorities and the emperor to help out.5
In the Hakata area the responsibility was shared by Otomo Yoriyazu and Muto Sukeyoshi, the local "daimyos" (deputies). 6 Their own troops were fiercely loyal to them, but they had some trouble given orders to the other daimyos that came to assist in the defense. These daimyo were stubbornly proud and had their own loyal troops.
On the Mongol side, even though Kublai Khan ordered the invasion, he had little to do with its organization and execution. It is not mentioned who lead the first attack. The second attack suffered from a lack of coordination between commands. The northern command didn't wait for the southern fleet like it was supposed to. Apparently it thought it could win by itself. It was even so arrogant as to land almost at the same place the first invasion had landed. They had not bothered to gather intelligence on what they were attacking. Then we find arguing among the two generals as to whether to continue the attack. General Hong has lost confidence and the Northern fleet sits idle at Iki. Only after the Southern fleet arrives do we see action, but even then they are slow to mount a new attack on the mainland. Perhaps there is still squabbling among the leadership, but the chronicles do not tell us.
Intelligence
The Bakufu had spies on the
mainland prior to both attacks. It is even rumored that he had spies in the
Mongol capitol of Peking before the second invasion. He knew when the fleets
sailed and he maintained constant communication with Kyushu.
Under their most famous ruler, Genghis Khan, the Mongols had excellent intelligence and psychological operations. The targeted cities would be scouted before an attack, and Mongol agents would sow rumors among the populace that caused them to flee in panic and sapped the confidence of the militia.4
The Mongols that invaded Japan did none of these things. They had apparently started believing their own propaganda that they were invincible. The fact that they attacked in the same area the first fleet had hit showed that they did not know anything about the defenses that had been built. They did not bother to find out anything about the country they were invading.
Hakata may have been chosen as a target for the first invasion because it was a major port of trade with the Sung. This was not a good place to start an invasion of Japan, however. If a study had been taken of Japan it would have shown that Kyoto and Kamakura were the main centers of power and population, and they should be attacked first.
Weapons
The Mongols had a clear edge here. They
had artillery, crossbows and slings. Not only could they throw stones with their
artillery, they could also throw something called "teppo" or "Fire-Pao". These
apparently were a kind of burning cannonball that the Chinese had developed with
their knowledge of gunpowder.5
The Mongol bows had a range of 250 yards, which was better than Japanese bows of that time could manage.
Both sides had swords and spears, but the Japanese equipment was better quality and they were more skilled in their use. In close combat the samurai were deadly, but they had no counter to the Mongol artillery, and the samurai suffered heavy losses because of it.
Tactics
The Mongols made their empire with
superior tactics. When Genghis Khan first led his armies into China he was often
outnumbered. But his precision cavalry tactics divided and confused his foes.
His army was organized in a way that is a model even by today's standards.
The smallest unit was a squad of ten men, called an "arban". Ten arbuns made a jagun. Ten jaguns made a minghan. And ten minghans made the largest unit, a 10,000-man tumen. Advancement through the ranks was based mainly on skill at warfare, not aristocratic birth. Each leader was responsible only to the leader directly over him. No one had to give orders to more than ten subordinates.4
Such organization made them a much better fighting force than the Japanese. The last war in Japan had been the Gempei civil war, over 100 years earlier. The method of fighting in that war, which had persisted up to the first invasion, was for a lone samurai to come forward. He would announce his lineage and any brave deeds he or his ancestors did, and he would challenge a single samurai on the other side. One-on-one fighting was the preferred way.5 Imagine the surprise of the samurai in the first invasion as they were struck by a hail of arrows and trampled under the orderly ranks of the Mongols and Koreans.
Another problem was the daimyos. In some ways Japan was still a feudal society. Each daimyo had his own force, which could be ten to 200 men, and these men were loyal only to him. These were the only "units" the Japanese had. An important daimyo, such as Otomo Yoriyazu, could be put in charge, but that didn't guarantee that the lesser daimyos would always obey him.
One of the records of the invasion is the Mongol Invasion Scroll. It was commissioned by a lesser daimyo, Takezaki Suenaga, to show his heroics at Hakata. In one scene he is ordered to go to a place where a counterattack is being planned. When he sees a lot of other troops going the same direction, he decides he will not find enough "opportunities for glory" there, so he changes direction and finds a place where there are more Mongols and less Japanese.6 This example shows how little command structure the Japanese had.
However, the Japanese were fast learners. Their use of fortifications was a good example. The wall they built around the bay was a first for them. When fighting among themselves the Japanese did not build defenses. If an opposing force outnumbered them, they would simply leave the area and come back when they had more troops. Not for another 300 years would the Japanese start to build castles and other fortifications to defend strategic areas when fighting each other. The wall showed their willingness to adapt. They realized the Mongols had to be stopped at the beaches, and so the wall was built. The Japanese were able to change their ways in response to a new threat, and the Mongols suffered for it.
Supplies
We know the Northern fleet only
brought three months supplies. 3 We can assume that the
Southern fleet didn't bring much more than that. There are no indications that
more supplies will be coming from the mainland. Koryu is exhausted. It took them
years to gather supplies and build the ships for the fleet. They have nothing
left for future resupply.
So the Mongols must be hoping to live off the land they capture after their supplies run out. This is not wise. Japan is not a very fertile country to begin with. It takes long, hard work to produce food from the land. The people of Kyushu mainly lived by fishing, but I don't think the Mongols thought to bring fishing equipment and their horses would need grain. If the Japanese continued to harass the fleet at sea, and destroyed any crops and fishing equipment the Mongols might try to capture on land, the Mongols may have had to stop fighting and dedicate all their strength to finding food before winter came. Kyushu is about the same latitude as South Carolina. The winters aren't harsh along the coastline. Temperatures reach about freezing. But that's enough so crops can't be grown year round.1
The Japanese have stockpiled supplies in preparation for the invasion. They are also fighting on their own turf which makes resupply much easier for them than for the Mongols. Supplies were not a factor in the fighting before the hurricane, but it would probably become an important factor if the hurricane had not hit.
Terrain
Japan is 80% mountainous. All of Kyushu
is mountainous. The impressive cavalry tactics of the Mongols could not be used.
Maneuverability of units would be hampered. In the mountains the Japanese could
get within closer range of the Mongols without being detected, thus overcoming
the main advantage of the Mongols: their long-range weapons.
It should be noted though, that Koryu was also mountainous. That did not stop the Mongols from making Koryu a vassal state.
Morale
This is a very important factor. The
morale of the Mongol soldiers themselves was probably pretty good. They were
disciplined troops with a long history of victories. They were probably upset at
being put in the role of marines instead of cavalry, but that would only make
them more eager to gain a beachhead, so they could be back on dry land. Their
allies were a different story.
When the King of Koryu was told to supply troops for the invasion, there were none to be found. The starving, decimated land had lost its best men in battles past. The King grabbed butchers and thieves to fill the ranks. Although they probably received some rudimentary training from the Mongols, they were still a far cry from soldiers. 3
The Chinese soldiers were mercenaries from the Sung dynasty. The Sung had been on good terms with Japan and had frequent trade with them. Now these soldiers were being told by the people who defeated them to attack Japan. One reason they were probably chosen to help with the invasion was because Kublai Khan wanted them out of the way. He didn't want any possible insurgents in his newly conquered country. The 100,000 soldiers knew that Kublai didn't care if they lived or died.3 Such conditions do not motivate men to fight their best.
The Japanese were highly motivated. They were well trained at individual fighting. Although the warrior's code, the "Bushido", had not yet been formalized, the samurai swore to give their lives in the service of their masters. Ritual suicide was already a tradition.5
The Japanese now had a strong central government. If the Mongols had invaded a hundred years earlier they would have found a country torn by civil war, easy to divide and conquer. But the Kamakura Bakufu now had control over all the daimyos and they moved to do the Regent's bidding with the Emperor's blessing.
The Japanese had also developed a sense of nationalism. In 1254 the monk Nichiren began to preach a new religion. It was a bigoted and sometimes violent religion, but it was a national religion. Nichiren preached that the Japanese should take pride in themselves and their works. No longer should they look to the mainland for new cultural and religious ideas. And no longer should they think of Japan as a collection of regions and feuding families. Japan is one nation, and if the Japanese did not repent their ways then he threatened that a foreign invasion would come! Whether he was a prophet or an astute observer of foreign politics is debatable, but his religion gained incredible popularity, especially after the first invasion. The country was unified in defending against the Mongols.3
This is not to say everyone was a patriot ready to die for the emperor. Japan had its share of cowards and rascals like any other place. After the first invasion a notice went out from the Bakufu stating that all those who did not cooperate with the defense should be suitably dealt with!3 But in general Japan took a unified stand in repelling the invasion and could have been counted on to remain unified even if the Mongols appeared to be winning.
Conclusions
First let me give
what I believe would be the worst-case scenario.
The Mongols take all of
Kyushu. An attack is made into Honshu but it is driven back. The Mongols settle
in to defending Kyushu against repeated Japanese counter-attacks. Over a period
of years the Japanese take back parts of Kyushu. Constant battles with rivals
prevent Kublai Khan from reinforcing his troops in Japan and after his death in
1294 Kyushu is completely reclaimed by the Japanese.
Now here what I think would most likely happen.
The
Chinese reinforcements attacking at the less-heavily defended Imari Gulf region
succeeds in gaining a beachhead. The defenders at Hakata swing southwest and a
major battle takes place. The Mongols prevail with their superior tactics and
weapons but at a heavy cost. The surviving samurai hide in the mountains and use
hit and run tactics on land and at sea. The Mongol army takes large portions of
western coastal Kyushu before they stop for the winter to concentrate on
producing food. They have trouble holding on to what they have gained however.
After each victory they must stop and fortify the place and leave a portion of
their troops or the samurai take it right back. Pretty soon the invasion grinds
to a halt and the Mongols are totally on the defensive. Reinforcements and new
supplies from the mainland are scarce. The Bakufu organizes counterattacks and
one by one the Mongol defensive positions fall until Kyushu is once again wholly
Japanese. This scenario would probably take several years.
Now let me suggest what should have happened if the
invasion was to succeed.
The Mongols land on the coast near Kyoto. The area
is flat there and they are able to use their artillery and cavalry to full
effect. Kyoto falls and the emperor is killed. Using the road between Kyoto and
Kamakura the cavalry swiftly attacks the Bakufu and kills the Regent. Without
leadership the country reverts to feudal areas. Each area tries to defend itself
but won't aid its neighbors. The Mongols then divide and conquer Japan at their
leisure.
With proper planning and information the Mongols could have accomplished this. Fortunately for the Japanese, the Mongols were past their prime. They were still a mighty force, but they were not the same Mongols that had swept all the way to Europe under Genghis Khan. They had moved into China and adopted the ways of the people they had conquered. The lean nomads had become well-fed, prosperous rulers.4
Kublai Khan had more important interests than the conquest of Japan. After the destruction of the second fleet he ordered a third one be prepared. But Koryu had been sucked dry. Some halting attempts were made to begin a third fleet but these never got far. After Kublai Khan's death the project was dropped.
Not even in my worst-case scenario do I imagine that the Mongols could have taken all of Japan. Poor planning combined with unwilling allies just aren't the proper ingredients needed to subdue a people as aggressive and adaptable as the Japanese.
Perhaps the gods of Japan did send those hurricanes for reasons we cannot fathom, but I doubt they sent them to save the Japanese. Despite their isolation and outdated fighting methods, the Japanese were capable of taking care of themselves.
Bibliography
1: Encyclopaedia Britannica.
15th ed. (1976), s.v. "Japan."
2: Mozai, Torao. "The Lost Fleet of Kublai Khan." National Geographic, November 1982, pp. 634-639.
3: Murdoch, James. A History of Japan. 3 vols. London: Frederick Ungar Publishing Co., 1964. Vol. 1, Part 2.
4: Turnbull, S.R. The Mongols. London: Osprey Publishing Ltd., 1980.
5: Turnbull, S.R. The Samurai. New York: Macmillan Publishing Co., 1977.
6: Yamamura, Kozo, ed. The Cambridge History of Japan. 6 vo