EU signs SAA with Serbia

[Sarmatian]

I didn't want to bump our old "Kosovo declares independence from Serbia" thread, mainly because it's every possible topic had been discussed there, from Kosovo drug trade to taking down F-117. A fresh start is needed.

article (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-serbia30apr30,1,367035.story)

Anyway, about a week ago EU signed Stabilization and Association Agreement with Serbia. The signing itself was largely symbolic, since the agreement was frozen the moment it was written, under pressure from Netherlands and Belgium until Serbia starts to "fully cooperate" with the Hague (in other words, until Ratko Mladic gets there).

In Serbia there were mixed reactions. It was seen by some as a support for pro-western parties at the upcoming general elections (11th may), a sugarcoating of a bitter pill named Kosovo independance, typical carrot on a stick to lead a donkey around (as it was frozen the moment it was signed) and so on...

So, it left me wondering - would the price of the eventual EU admission for Serbia be recognizing Kosovo? Some politicians here say that even by entering into negotiations with EU we're indirectly recognizing Kosovo independence, while others argue that by coming closer to the EU and eventually becoming part of it, Serbia can make its case stronger by using EU mechanisms. The latter group also stresses that EU can't put Kosovo recognition as a condition for EU membership since there are several EU countries which didn't recnognize Kosovo.

So the questions are:


SAA - Is it genuine try to speed up the process or just throwing a bone?
Is Serbia indirectly recognizing Kosovo by trying to enter EU?
Would Serbias case be strengtened or weakened by trying to get in EU?


Also, just wondering, since most of the "backroomers" are either US or western Europeans, what do you think about Serbia in EU? I remember reading some polls some time ago about which country would you most like to see in the EU? It appears that EU residents would most like to Switzerland and then Norway. Serbia is second last, ahead of Turkey...

[cegorach]

SAA - Is it genuine try to speed up the process or just throwing a bone?

Both. Second as the minimum plan - 'to do something' but hoping for more.



Is Serbia indirectly recognizing Kosovo by trying to enter EU?

In a way. If Serbia joins the EU after Kosovo, Kosovo will have to agree first. If before that state this would result in indirect recognision through border control improvements and similar.
The best scenario would be if both joined the EU at the same time.



Would Serbias case be strengtened or weakened by trying to get in EU?


Strenghtened - overall, but that would be up to you - usual inter EU politics.
It is better to be in than out if you want to change something and you actually care about anything except some trade or border agreements.


Also, just wondering, since most of the "backroomers" are either US or western Europeans, what do you think about Serbia in EU? I remember reading some polls some time ago about which country would you most like to see in the EU? It appears that EU residents would most like to Switzerland and then Norway. Serbia is second last, ahead of Turkey...

Perhaps as central-eastern european I am not the right person here, but I will say something too.

I believe that Serbia should join the EU, as soon as it is ready.
Only by taking all balcan states to the community we will finally end local tensions or at least cointain those to some small incidents of little importance or danger...

At that time former yugoslavian Slovenia and maybe Croatia will be net contributors to the EU budget already so question of money shoudn't be considered as important.

Besides I would like to travel everywhere in the continent (except Russia which shouldn't join - EU bordering Alaska - no, thanks...) without having to worry about visas or border controlls.:yes:

[Vladimir]

Nothing substantiative to add I just wanted to compliment you on a well written and formated post on a potentially sensitive subject. :2thumbsup:

[Sarmatian]

Both. Second as the minimum plan - 'to do something' but hoping for more.

Not sure I get what are you're trying to say.


In a way. If Serbia joins the EU after Kosovo, Kosovo will have to agree first. If before that state this would result in indirect recognision through border control improvements and similar.
The best scenario would be if both joined the EU at the same time.

Kosovo joining EU in near future is a bit far-fetched. No economy, criminal and corruption rampant, drug trafficking, human trafficking etc... It's a mess there right now and I don't see it cleaned up soon.



At that time former yugoslavian Slovenia and maybe Croatia will be net contributors to the EU budget already so question of money shoudn't be considered as important.


Again, I'm not sure what are you say here. That Serbia will be a drain on the EU budget in the future but that won't be important since Croatia and Slovenia will be net contributors to the budget?


Nothing substantiative to add I just wanted to compliment you on a well written and formated post on a potentially sensitive subject.

Who? Cegorach or me?

[Vladimir]

The Serb. Before this thread devolves into a nationalist diatribe I wanted to say it's off to a positive start.

[Fragony]

hehe

[Brenus]

Sorry, I will be the bad guy.

This signature is purely symbolic, because it didn’t resolve the maim problem: Karadic and Mladic. The fact that Serbia is the only Balkan Country blackmailed by The Hague and EU give you a hint how much she is wanted… Each time, EU comes with kind of “make an effort” and you will join the agreement which will perhaps open the door of the room for a start of the negotiations which eventually will start your request for adhesion to EU. It was for Milosevic, Kosovo resolution, Srebrenica, etc.

And each time, there is a good reason for EU not to comply…

The problem is some EU members start to realise it was a little bit more complex than what the thought… Even the very anti-Serbs French Minister Kouchner just see it. So they try to give something without giving. Cost nothing and perhaps it will clam the Serbs… Not that the real people really care of Kosovo (the Serbs are ready to all for Kosovo, except to live there) but the politicians do. And I think it is a way how Serbia put pressure on EU and others, some where…

Now, I don’t think EU is a future for Serbia. Croatia is in debt, Slovenia is just a big garden… By the way, Slovenia is less populated than a big town in Europe. Croatia is probably as big as London (Great London) but two visits from the Pope and done, no more money…
My advice: Stay out of EU. Don’t close your borders (well, I still want to buy my house there, probably in Novi Sad in few years), trade, accept dinars and Euros, be Serbia.

Sorry I have to go…

[cegorach]

Not sure I get what are you're trying to say.


Well. Basicly if it goes really badly it will at least say 'we did what we could', but is supposed to create convenient starting position for future developments.
I think it is done for something greater, but the backup plan is to at least have it as an excuse that the EU did what it could.




Kosovo joining EU in near future is a bit far-fetched. No economy, criminal and corruption rampant, drug trafficking, human trafficking etc... It's a mess there right now and I don't see it cleaned up soon.

I am quite sure its accession together with developments in Serbia. If Serbia gets inside Kosovo will be treated more leniently to allow its access too. Obviously with some limits, some things cannot be ignored.





Again, I'm not sure what are you say here. That Serbia will be a drain on the EU budget in the future but that won't be important since Croatia and Slovenia will be net contributors to the budget?

I should have expanded that. Slovenia and Croatia are just two of many from the new and future members which will leave the net receiver group.
Accession of Serbia shouldn't cause the same concerns the big enlargement did or proposed or negotiated accessions of large states like Turkey.
Serbia, even with Kosovo and for example Macedonia are hardly a sizable burden to the budget.
So at least one argument against the accession doesn't apply here.

[Sarmatian]

Sorry, I will be the bad guy.

This signature is purely symbolic, because it didn’t resolve the maim problem: Karadic and Mladic. The fact that Serbia is the only Balkan Country blackmailed by The Hague and EU give you a hint how much she is wanted… Each time, EU comes with kind of “make an effort” and you will join the agreement which will perhaps open the door of the room for a start of the negotiations which eventually will start your request for adhesion to EU. It was for Milosevic, Kosovo resolution, Srebrenica, etc.

Hmm... But this time only Netherlands and Belgium were opposed. Netherlands is trying to clean its face because of their own blunder in Srebrenica, so I guess that's why the hard-line attitude is formed. Belgium doesn't care much, just supporting Holland in this issue.



The problem is some EU members start to realise it was a little bit more complex than what the thought… Even the very anti-Serbs French Minister Kouchner just see it. So they try to give something without giving. Cost nothing and perhaps it will clam the Serbs… Not that the real people really care of Kosovo (the Serbs are ready to all for Kosovo, except to live there) but the politicians do. And I think it is a way how Serbia put pressure on EU and others, some where…


Well, that's not a valid argument. It's like saying that resident of New York doesn't care about Los Angeles because he doesn't want to move there. Why should he? He's got a job in NY, an apartment, friends, his children go to school there... I consider it quite normal than a resident of Novi Sad doesn't want to go to Kosovo. But people already living Kosovo want to remain there, and vast majority of those expelled after 1999 wants to go back.



Now, I don’t think EU is a future for Serbia. Croatia is in debt, Slovenia is just a big garden… By the way, Slovenia is less populated than a big town in Europe. Croatia is probably as big as London (Great London) but two visits from the Pope and done, no more money…
My advice: Stay out of EU. Don’t close your borders (well, I still want to buy my house there, probably in Novi Sad in few years), trade, accept dinars and Euros, be Serbia.
Sorry I have to go…

Well Croatia is heavily indebted, that's true, but a good portion of that money was invested in infrastructure. Seeing as they want to develop tourism, I consider that a pretty sound investment.

What do you mean by "Slovenia is just a big garden"?

Staying out of the EU maybe won't be just Serbia decision. If someone from the Big Three (Germany, France, UK) decides that Serbia should be a part of EU, I don't believe we'll have much say in it. I believe Serbia becoming an EU member is a done deal, it's just a matter of when. If it hadn't been for Kosovo, negotiations would be well under way. Even Russia isn't against it. They're only sending signals that we shouldn't become a full member of NATO.

But that's another interesting issue. Is NATO and EU membership connected?


I should have expanded that. Slovenia and Croatia are just two of many from the new and future members which will leave the net receiver group.
Accession of Serbia shouldn't cause the same concerns the big enlargement did or proposed or negotiated accessions of large states like Turkey.
Serbia, even with Kosovo and for example Macedonia are hardly a sizable burden to the budget.
So at least one argument against the accession doesn't apply here.

Well, I don't believe Serbia will be a drain on the budget anyway. Last couple of years our GPD growth was 7%. Serbia doesn't need credits, we need investments, and that's totally another issue.

[cegorach]

Well, I don't believe Serbia will be a drain on the budget anyway. Last couple of years our GPD growth was 7%. Serbia doesn't need credits, we need investments, and that's totally another issue.


I realise, however structural funds, agriculture and a dozen of different areas are covered by the EU budget in one way or another.

Obviously an avarage taxpayer first worries about the cost of a country joining the community, the rest is more difficult to measure and more a question of support for the country applying to join.
Mind that avarage will be different in each passing year - so perhaps we should think if Serbia will cross it when it joins (so with the chance to become a net payer) or rather which regions of Serbia will be rich enough not to receive any EU funds, because it tends to vary in any country.

[Brenus]

Well, that's not a valid argument: Not as such, true. However, Serbia, and the Serbs, will happily leave Kosovo alone if they can keep the Metohija. But it is in the Serbian populated area that the coal and others minerals are, so it is vital for Kosovo is it wants to be independent.

What do you mean by "Slovenia is just a big garden"? Exactly what I said, mountain, flowers, skiing during winter…

“a good portion of that money was invested in infrastructure”: Nope, only on the coast. The rest o the budget goes for the war veterans and their huge advantage. Misic failed to resolve the problem… If you go to Vukovar, (and you probably did, it isn’t so far), the River Harbour isn’t so busy. Croatia has population of 4 millions (minus the 300 000 Serbs expelled) and wants to function as a big state (Amy, police, borders etc). In term of budget, Croatia has probably less income than London or Paris…:beam:
So much for investments: Croatia sold itself to EU members, especially Germany…

[Sarmatian]

Now, I don’t think EU is a future for Serbia.

Well, Brenus, my friend and fearsome gaullic chieftain, it seems that most of the Serbs agree with you. Actually, elections proved that most of the Serbs aren't willing to trade Kosovo for EU ticket.

Preliminary results of today's elections:

Name of the Party - percentage, seats in the parliament, pro western parties are in blue

Democratic Party - 38.7%, 103/250

Serbian Radical Party - 29.1%, 77/250

Democratic Party of Serbia - 11.3%, 30/250

Socialist Party of Serbia - 7.9%, 20/250

Liberal-democratic Party - 5.2%, 13/250

Various national minority parties - 3.7% together, 7/250 - they don't really have a firm position on the EU/Kosovo issue, so they may support either bloc.

Democratic Party (party of Boris Tadic, current president), stronly pro-western/EU, is the single strongets party but it probably won't be able to form the goverment since it won't achieve the support of 126 members of the parliament.

Democratic party of Serbia (party of Vojislav Kostunica, current PM) can form the goverment in coalition with the Radicals and Socialist Party of Serbia - together 127 seats.

So, most probably the new goverment will proclaim the SAA null and void, and will continue to fight legal battle for Kosovo, probably even fiercer now. We may expect Serbia to sue countries that have recognized Kosovo - article (http://eyugoslavia.com/featured/16/serbia-should-sue-the-states-that-have-recognized-kosovo%E2%80%99s-unilateral-independence-%E2%80%93-serbia%E2%80%99s-legal-adviser-22103/)

There is still a chance that pro-EU Democratic Party forms the new goverment, if they manage to persuade Socialist Party of Serbia (ex Milosevic party) to join them in a coalition, but that is highly unlikely.

There you have it guys, fresh news, directly from Serbia, before CNN :laugh4:

[Brenus]

I can’t say I am surprised by the result. How EU managed Yugoslav Crisis was absolutely unfair and unbalanced… Broken promises, blackmails and others manoeuvres have difficulties to apply on a country where you have “inat”, this strange and difficult world to translate, but basically mans “pride which pushes me to do things and I know I will suffer for it but I have to”.
When I was working in your nice town, USA, EU and European Union were welcome, and the people thought it was the way to go. Then following the fall of Milosevic, came the demands: Give Milosevic to The Hague, open market, Kosovo, Bosnia etc…
And the Serbs saw nothing real coming… And they saw how all their “enemies” whiter than white each time, guilty for nothing etc…
So, yes, I understand what is happening…
And you know what? Perhaps it is good for Serbia. Perhaps EU and the US will start to think how to deal more fairly with this country. Perhaps, finally, some will hear the Serbs… Yeah, and the pigs will fly as well…

[Sarmatian]

You're right. In those years I was strong supporter of EU. Today, I'm not that certain. After almost 9 years of lies and blackmails I'm definitely losing support for EU, expecially since I've seen that EU is largely following orders from Washington.

[Slyspy]

The EU is largely following orders from Washington?

[Sarmatian]

Well, yeah, that's how I see it. Kosovo was US pet project and I don't see how EU benefits from an independent micro-state with a huge American military base in it. I can see how US benefits from it.


Also, unrelated to this, I better correct myself for wrong information I gave in the post where I talked about election results - I said two pro-western/EU parties are in blue. All parties there are actually pro-EU and all think that Serbia should enter EU, they're just disagreeing on the issue of Kosovo. Those two parties in the blue are probably ready to trade off Kosovo for EU membership, while the others three are saying "EU only with Kosovo"... Even radical party, which is often touted as ultra-nationalist party in the western media supports EU entry.

[Brenus]

The fact is that the Serbs are not against Europe. They are just tired to be blackmailed…

The only time when the “world” listened to what the Serbs had to say was at Milosevic Trial… The same people who demonstrated and kicked him out were applauding him. The “world” was expecting the Cretin of the Balkans, and when he started to counter all the claims, it was an absolute moment of pleasure for most of the Serbs. Finally, the media, the news, were reporting their side of the story…

Now, after the “bomb the Serbs” policy, the EU is shocked that Serbs don’t want to be part of it… How dare they? We denied their rights, we denied their victims, we denied them from justice, we took their lands, and they refused to say thank you, these ungrateful …whatever… In some others sites (French) you still have people claiming about the 900 000 victims of the Kosovo ethnic cleansing, stopped by NATO…

When will all the media apologise for all the lies? Kuchner recognised he lied; Simone Weill did the same, and all the others so-called intellectual just shut-up. What about the systematic rapes? Do you know you can still find wed-sites talking about it when even the farce of The Hague dropped the charges?
Massacres without bodies, exterminations camps without wires, ethic cleansing in the most divers country of the Balkans, nationalism in a country where until they were obliged by UN, they preferred to be called Yugoslav than Serb… The only country where a prime Minister apologised for Racist graffiti against Gypsies…

I will come soon to enjoy a pivo on the Strend… Soon…