View Full Version : Assassins useless???
Coeur De Lion
10-25-2002, 14:50
do you find assassins any good i always build them to kill inquesidors or princeess but they always fail and get court i dont think iv ever made a susscesfull assassination.
am i using them wrong? if so can someone give me some tips on how to use them.
they even fail trying to kill emmisarys!
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Coeur De Lion
start by easy targets, move up the stars ladder
One way that I do not recommend is to kill your own emmissaries to boost your stats.
Anyway, high value Inquisitor are very difficult to kill, but even with a 25% chance, it means you should manage a kill by sending 4 or 5 assas at the same time
Wildthing
10-25-2002, 15:09
Whats wrong with killing your own agents (apart from the obvious cost)?
Gringoleader
10-25-2002, 16:01
A good tactic is to only operate on home turf at first, and, as mentioned earlier, get some practice on easy friendlies. I find princesses are good assassin practice because they are free.
as with most of the strategic agents they really have to be used in bulk to have a reasonable chance of success
once they hit the 3 star mark the chance for heirs and generals is typically around the 10-15% mark
20-30 assassins flooding a target at those odds has a good chance of success and considering how few heirs most factions have at times its one way to remove a potential threat
ToranagaSama
10-25-2002, 16:59
Quote Originally posted by Coeur De Lion:
am i using them wrong? if so can someone give me some tips on how to use them.
they even fail trying to kill emmisarys!
[/QUOTE]
Sorta.
Agents gain experience just like generals. This "experience" is represented by stars. A 1 star is better than a 0 star, and a 2 star is better than both a 1 or 0 star, and so on.
When choosing targets to assassinate, check to see their experience level. Check your assassins' experience level. Don't send a 0 star agent to take on a 1 star or above target. You'll lose.
Using, for example, a 1 star Assassin against a 1 star target is slightly risky. Check the message parchment that pops up when you "drop' the Assassin, it gives a percentage value to the odds of success. I will call off an attack if the percentage is lower than 75%. I usually look for an 80% chance or better. I will rarely use an assassin w/o a clear advantage. Example, a 1 star Assassin against a 0 star target, or 2 stars vs. 1 or 0, and so on. Rarely, though sometimes I may get desparate to "remove" a certain target and will accept a 1 star vs. 1 star, or 2 vs 2 or whatever, engagement.
As your Assassin (or other agent) gains in experience its best to use him wisely. Say you have a 3 or 4 star (or better) Assassin, it would a shame to lose him chasing some emmissary when there's a good chance you'll NEED him to take out a more threatening Inquisitor.
Because you cannot readily control the path or province an Assassin my take or land when "chasing" a target you could lose your valued Assassin to a Border Fort. Usually, a 3 or 4 star Assassin will survive landing in a Border Fort protected province, BUT sometimes he's a goner. So, use a high experienced Assassin judiciously.
TIP: Once you've assigned an Assassin a Target, you can "right-click" and a parchment will open indicating the province that Assassin will move to on the next turn. What I'll do is check to see if he's headed to a province that MAY have a Border Fort. If I know the province has a BF, or, if I'm not sure. I'll cancel the attack, and look for another less risky Target.
Where your going wrong is "simply" building Assassins for "specific" targets, like you state Inqusitors and Princess. These are some of the MOST difficult targets. Princess have "bodyguards", much like generals/kings. I don't know if Inquisitors have bodyguard, but I suspect that they're just treacherous scum, that need oppossing treacherous scum to take them out.
The thing is that the AI is constantly building Assassins and using them to take out easy targets like 0 star Emissaries over and over. Thereby rasing the level of experience for its Assassins. 1 kill equals a 1 star level of experience, 2 stars takes a few more kills, and so on.
You need to start making Assassin sooner, and start getting them experience, e.g. raising their star level. So when that Inquisitor pops up you can nail em!
Lastly, Emissaries and other Agents, such as, Bishops can gain experience, the longer they stay alive and accomplish they're missions. In the case of Emissaries, spying, marrying off the King's prodigy, Alliances, cease-fires, etc. Once completing a successful mission they gain a 1 star experience level. You'll need, at least a 1 star Assassin (better 2 stars) to take em out. Bishops gain experience by converting the pagan and Islamics, the longer they do it, the better they get at it. After a time they will earn stars and become more difficult to kill.
TIP: If you wait too long to build Assassins and gain them experience, then by the mid to late game period, the AI's agents will have gained too much experience and you may not find any easy kills, such as, 0 star Emissaries.
So, get your Assassins built and use them wisely!!!
Have Fun!
[This message has been edited by ToranagaSama (edited 10-25-2002).]
[This message has been edited by ToranagaSama (edited 10-25-2002).]
ToranagaSama
10-25-2002, 17:03
P.S., don't use some of the "cheesy" tactics described above.
Don't kill your own agents.
There's no need for 20 freaking assassins.
Play the game "straight up" the way the Devs intended the game to be played. You'll get more enjoyment and satisfaction and accomplishments within the game doing so.
Again, Have Fun!
Quote Originally posted by ToranagaSama:
As your Assassin (or other agent) gains in experience its best to use him wisely. Say you have a 3 or 4 star (or better) Assassin, it would a shame to lose him chasing some emmissary when there's a good chance you'll NEED him to take out a more threatening Inquisitor.
[/QUOTE]
Is it possible to have more than 3 stars for an assassin ?
I've never saw one :/
Prodigal
10-25-2002, 18:19
Quote Originally posted by Akka:
Is it possible to have more than 3 stars for an assassin ?
I've never saw one :/
[/QUOTE]
Oh yes indeedy it is. I got one up to 5 stars, (7 in STW btw), problem is they get wasted just as easily as a 1 star if the odds go against them, I lost the 5 star & 2 3 star assassins trying to kill one no level inquisitor.
smap1024
10-25-2002, 19:01
try this, someone had posted b4 ,i rehash.
make at least 1 assassin / province and "DO NOT" upgrade your watch tower into a border fort.
your assassin(s) will do a enemy agent check each turn and kill them.
every kill generally nets u a star for each assassin.
so soon u can have many 5 stars assassins (good enuh for most tasks unless u are trying to take out 5 star plus enemy kings.
note that if u got multiple assassins u get more chances at catching enemy agents, but at the price of each of your assassins going up in stars slower.
btw, expect some of your own bishops, generals and emissaries dying in your own provinces.
but generally speaking, i feel its okie since every kingdom needs 1 good assassin and murdering my own agents takes a bit of clicking and all.
me lazy.
Quote Originally posted by Wildthing:
Whats wrong with killing your own agents (apart from the obvious cost)?[/QUOTE]
nothing as such, but it goes against the spirit of the game, which is already too easy without finding cheap tricks.
I use to kill my crap heirs too, but I stopped. Makes my campaigns more enjoyable.
Coeur De Lion
10-25-2002, 19:29
ok cheers guys you helped me alot i killed a few emmisarys but my assins get caught alot in foregin provences its pretty annoying but at least now there killing emmisarys.
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Coeur De Lion
Question:
Quote
Is it possible to have more than 3 stars for an assassin ?
I've never saw one :/
[/QUOTE]
Answer:
http://www.dreikantschnurzeln.de/8er.jpg
http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/biggrin.gif
well...look at mine then
http://members.truepath.com/sapphoo/8er-copy.jpg
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http://members.truepath.com/sapphoo/horse.gif
Tora - regarding the tip below you posted earlier...
TIP: Once you've assigned an Assassin a Target, you can "right-click" and a parchment will open indicating the province that Assassin will move to on the next turn. What I'll do is check to see if he's headed to a province that MAY have a Border Fort. If I know the province has a BF, or, if I'm not sure. I'll cancel the attack, and look for another less risky Target.
THANK YOU!!! Didn't know you could do this (never tried mind you...). A most excellent tip.
Cheers.
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There are no dumb questions, only dumb answers...
Well, nice picture http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/biggrin.gif
But mine is real, and many kings and their heirs had to die for the jump from lvl 7 to 8.
Sure, its much faster with a picture editor http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/wink.gif
ick_of_pick
10-25-2002, 23:28
why do byz have cheaper agents?
muffinman14
10-26-2002, 02:39
assasins are fun to kill almost anything like when the pope excommunicates me i just kill him with my trusty assasin.
Richard the Slayer
10-26-2002, 02:45
What do you guys think about inquisitors? Is there a real use for them? Personally I've never used them before but dont know if their worthwhile.
Pragmatic
10-26-2002, 02:57
I think assassins build up stars at a rate of 1 kill = 1 star, 2 kills = 2 stars, 4 kills = 3 stars, 8 kills = 5 stars, 16 kills = 6 stars, and so on.
However, also take into account the number of stars of the opponent. I sent an assassin to kill an 8-star general, and after many save/reloads (what can I say? http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/smile.gif ), I finally won the match. That popped up my assassin from 0-stars to 5-stars, from one kill.
sassbarman
10-26-2002, 04:49
it would be very helpful if you could have an option to have your assasin stalk his target only within your borders. nothing worse than having your 6 star ass. killed at some distant border fort trying to kill a 0 star emissary.
ToranagaSama
10-26-2002, 05:19
Quote Originally posted by sassbarman:
it would be very helpful if you could have an option to have your assasin stalk his target only within your borders. nothing worse than having your 6 star ass. killed at some distant border fort trying to kill a 0 star emissary. [/QUOTE]
Ahhh man, doesn't that SUCK!!!
But, I guess it serves to keep the game "in balance". Imagine if you could keep high level Assassin alive forever, or say just twice as long as is possible now. You'd have a SUPERMAN; and they'd need to change the name of the game from Medieval to Assassin Total War!! http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/biggrin.gif http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/biggrin.gif
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I think assassins build up stars at a rate of 1 kill = 1 star, 2 kills = 2 stars, 4 kills = 3 stars, 8 kills = 5 stars, 16 kills = 6 stars, and so on.
Not quite accurate, but that's the general idea.
TomThumbKOP
10-26-2002, 05:23
Then what is accurate?
LordKhaine
10-26-2002, 05:26
I find it a lot easier to just "mug" a general with 4-5 low level assassins. Its just annoying trying to maintain a high level assassin since they die with such ease.
[This message has been edited by LordKhaine (edited 10-25-2002).]
ToranagaSama
10-26-2002, 05:26
Quote Originally posted by Richard the Slayer:
What do you guys think about inquisitors? Is there a real use for them? Personally I've never used them before but dont know if their worthwhile.[/QUOTE]
Hasn't the AI used on against you yet? If not then you've been lucky.
Yes, Inquisitors are definitely worth it (as long as your playing the game "straight up" and not using cheesy tactics to build up your assassins)!!
Example, say you want to take out the high level general in a stack that's been guarding some valued province or such. Say 5 star general.
The likelihood of an Assassin taking him out is almost nil! So you send in the Inquisitor. It takes awhile, need a little patience, but I'd say you've got a 50-75% chance (maybe its higher) of having that general burned at the stake.
I'm not an expert on the use of Spies, but I believe you can use a "Spy" to check the Vices and Virtures of that general to give you a better idea of what the Inquisitors chances are and perhaps an idea of how long it "might" take; and this thread attests, its HARD to remove an Inquisitor.
Pragmatic
10-26-2002, 06:10
Quote Originally posted by ToranagaSama:
But, I guess it serves to keep the game "in balance[/QUOTE]
In my opinion, the AI shouldn't win by default. The computer may have the resources to check every single assassin and determine if it's about to go into dangerous territory, but I personally don't. That means I only ever use two or three assassins.
When I get around to putting MTW back on my computer (I had to wipe clean my hard drive five times last weekend; I'm not sure it's stable yet, and don't want to bother with installing games right now), I think I'm only going to put docks/ports in selected provinces. That way, if an enemy agent gets deep into my territory, they don't get to skip all over the map.
ToranagaSama
10-26-2002, 17:36
Quote Originally posted by Pragmatic:
In my opinion, the AI shouldn't win by default. The computer may have the resources to check every single assassin and determine if it's about to go into dangerous territory, but I personally don't. That means I only ever use two or three assassins.
[/QUOTE]
Win what by default?
Did you read what I wrote? I explained how to do just that. http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/frown.gif
If you choose not to then, its your choice, but then that wouldn't be too pragmatic! http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/biggrin.gif
[This message has been edited by ToranagaSama (edited 10-26-2002).]
Forward Observer
10-26-2002, 20:43
This subject points out some of the fuzzy math that I think gets used in this game.
If I train 5 assassins, and assign them each a different target, and the parchment says that they each have an 80% chance of success, on the average four of them should succeed and one should fail, no matter how many stars anyone has. I have tested this and I routinely get 2 to 4 failures.
Is it possible that in MTW that 80% is like the proof reading of whiskey--you know that 80 proof really means 40% alcohol? If you think about it, how in the world can you have 200% loyalty? Of course I never understood how you could have a 110% tax rate in Shogun either.
Do percentages have a different meaning in the UK? I know, it must be that friggin' metric system that we Yanks, stupidly continue to refuse to use. LOL
Cheers
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Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a vulgar brawl.
[This message has been edited by Forward Observer (edited 10-26-2002).]
Coeur De Lion
10-26-2002, 20:50
from the UK my self i understand what you mean i wondered why loyalty goes to 200, na we not differant here in UK my yankie friend we use 100% aswell maybe the gys at CA didnt work hard enough in math for pecentages.
I guess were never know....
* walks out the room with X files music in background*
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Coeur De Lion
Hosakawa Tito
10-26-2002, 21:03
Put your newly minted assassins in your provinces that have ports, in the early game,
and leave them there. Reason: enemy agents use ports to travel the map, and they move practically every turn. Eventually your assassins will gain stars before you even start to use them offensively.
Right click on a target agent you'd like to "see have an accident" to check on his experience and destination (sometimes given, sometimes not). I don't usually attack any enemy agents that are in a port province, because they'll move and lure your assassin into a trap. If an enemy agent is in one of my interior provinces or one without a port, I'll attack him from several bordering provinces to box him in.
I try to keep my king in just such a province, and kill all the emissaries I can who try to make an alliance with me.
I like to train up a real Jack the Ripper assassin and keep him handy just in case I have to make the Pope disappear along with any disagreeable excommunication. Take several low level assassins along with your best man. Usually the low level guys get caught before your top man, and seeing that only one gets caught per turn, your best assassin will get a chance to take out the Pope, or any other target you choose. You just have to choose your targets carefully and scout ahead looking for border forts etc... Assassins are cheap, it just takes time to train them is all.
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Diplomacy is the art of telling someone to go to hell so that they look forward to making the trip.
King David
10-26-2002, 21:22
Here is an easy way:
Open your early or watever era text in your campmap\startpos\early late or watever file
MakeUnit:: ID_CASTILE Assassin 1069 16
find the make unit line and add a number to the year the assassin is to be born like 8 for 5 stars 16 for 6 you can do that with all agents i think......
Pachinko
10-26-2002, 22:04
sapphoo>>>Wow! I never seen a Assassin that was 9 or 10 stars!!
Ill have to work a little bit, I think!
P.
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Crush your enemies, see them driven before you on the field of battle, and hear the lamentation of their women.
Dev quote>>Sigh, ye of little faith. Don't assume everything is a bug.
[This message has been edited by Pachinko (edited 10-26-2002).]
Papa Bear!
10-27-2002, 01:44
Quote Originally posted by tirgor:
as with most of the strategic agents they really have to be used in bulk to have a reasonable chance of success
once they hit the 3 star mark the chance for heirs and generals is typically around the 10-15% mark
20-30 assassins flooding a target at those odds has a good chance of success and considering how few heirs most factions have at times its one way to remove a potential threat[/QUOTE]
the cost of 20-30 assasins= 2000-3000 florins, thats an insane cost to kill 1 guy. So he's a tough general, why not spend 2000-3000 florins on some troops and kill him in the field? I can't imagine a situation where 2000 florins lost (on a % chance situation), is at all a good investment.
Perhaps they're useful when you reach that 80k bank vault portion of the campaign, but once you're that rich I'd still advocate combat troops for dealing with your enemy, its just a better way to spend it imo.
I personally only use assasins to clean up certain areas. (the stupid ai just masses agents in some provinces until you can barely tell whats going on in there)...
ToranagaSama
10-27-2002, 04:24
Quote Originally posted by Forward Observer:
This subject points out some of the fuzzy math that I think gets used in this game.
If I train 5 assassins, and assign them each a different target, and the parchment says that they each have an 80% chance of success, on the average four of them should succeed and one should fail, no matter how many stars anyone has. I have tested this and I routinely get 2 to 4 failures.
[/QUOTE]
Sorry, but that's a bit fuzzy.
Example, what are the odds any two people can keep a secret? Let's say 80%. Add another 2 people. Would this mean that there's still an 80% chance? Obviously, not. The odds would drop with the addition of another indidividual.
Factors involved for 1, will not be the same as factors involved for 4.
Coeur De Lion
10-27-2002, 04:31
too many numbers involved in that post to get me in to intrested im already dreading maths on tuesday and you not helping :P
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Coeur De Lion
Forward Observer
10-27-2002, 08:16
Quote Originally posted by ToranagaSama:
Sorry, but that's a bit fuzzy.
Example, what are the odds any two people can keep a secret? Let's say 80%. Add another 2 people. Would this mean that there's still an 80% chance? Obviously, not. The odds would drop with the addition of another indidividual.
Factors involved for 1, will not be the same as factors involved for 4.[/QUOTE]
No offense, but there is absolutely nothing wrong or fuzzy about my math. Odds stated as a percentage are simply a ratio of the outcome of an event.
If this ratio is constant throughout the population, then it does not change with an increase in the population. In fact as the population increases the odds will become even more accurate, i.e. the standard deviation of error will become smaller or narrower on a statistical bell curve.
I hope I stated that last part right. It has been a long time since I studied statistics, but I play a lot of cards and I do know odds.
The old joke among gamblers that points out the consistancy of odds goes something like this. If you flip a coin the odds are that it will come up heads 50% of the time. If you flip it 25 times and it comes up tails every time, what are the odds that it will come up heads ont the 26th toss? It is still 50%.
Your example is misleading, as stated, because it implies that the secret is a re-occurring non-exclusive event. It is not. In other words not being told the secret does not negate the fact that it was told previously. Once a secret is told it is no longer a secret.
To correctly state your example, in terms of odds, would be to say that there is a secret and 20% percent of the people will tell and 80% will not, or alternatively all of the people will tell the secret 20% of the time. If I talk to 1 person of a total of 2 people, or 1 person of a total of 100 who know, my chances of learning the secret are allways 1 in 5 or 20% percent regardless of the total number who know the secret.
Obviously, if I talk to all 100 I have insured the odds that I will hear the secret aproximately 20 times, but as with the coin example the odds do not change each time I ask.
Cheers
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Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a vulgar brawl.
[This message has been edited by Forward Observer (edited 10-27-2002).]
el_slapper
10-27-2002, 13:42
Maybe I missed that point, but probabilities are far lower in enemy land. When you are chasing an enemy general, he is not on your own land. So, defending spies, assassins or border forts are hidden factors lowering the real percentage; but there are not shown for a simple reason : you don't have to know them, as assassins & spies are invisible.....
I personally use my assassins in a purely defensive role. I don't build border forts, instead I stack assassins in each province, & those in border provinces raise up quickly... I also kill every priest/alim fool enough to enter my control zone, & every princess that didn't want to marry me(shouldn't I get bad vice for that?) Wandering in enemy zone of control is simply too costly for assassins. Only acceptable for spies in group, because rebellions make it not last for long.
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War is not about who is right, only about who is left
Quote Originally posted by el_slapper:
I also kill ...... every princess that didn't want to marry me(shouldn't I get bad vice for that?)
[/QUOTE]
http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/biggrin.gif http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/biggrin.gif http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/biggrin.gif
Anyway, another usefull role of assassins is to eliminate a faction that has a lot of ships, and is restricted to islands.
ToranagaSama
10-27-2002, 14:44
Quote Originally posted by Forward Observer:
No offense, but there is absolutely nothing wrong or fuzzy about my math. Odds stated as a percentage are simply a ratio of the outcome of an event.
If this ratio is constant throughout the population, then it does not change with an increase in the population. In fact as the population increases the odds will become even more accurate, i.e. the standard deviation of error will become smaller or narrower on a statistical bell curve....
[/QUOTE]
For the examples you site your logic flows well, but, that example does not apply to the game, nor, I think, to reality.
What you miss is that a ratio is the result of factors. Change the factors and change the ratio. E=Event F=Factor 1/(ExF)=X% The percentage would only remain the same "if" the Event AND the Factor(s) remain the same.
My premises is that as you increase the number from 1 to 2 or 3 or 4, etc. The Event may remain the same, but the Factor(s) MUST also change resulting in an "inconsistent" ratio.
An Event, "keeping" the secret. The Factor, the "probable" number of people one comes into contact with.
Raising the number of people involved from say, 2 to 3, consequently raises the probable number of people that will come into contact with the secret.
Raise it again to 4, and the probability again rises. Consequently, the ratio of successfully "keeping the secret" diminishes as the number of people involved rises.
Of course there are additional "Factors" involved, but the single factor example serves to illustrate that the fewer the number the greater the chance of success w/o considering other mitigating factors, which I'm sure the game probably has and takes into account, considering the Devs' emphasis on modeling reality.
The "playing card" example is misleading, because it fails to take into account any mitigating factor(s) and/or that the factor(s) remain constant and the same.
How about on a windy day with the wind coming from the east. The "flipper" is facing west and flipping toward the west.
Change the direction, in any way and the results should change as well; but the main deficiency in that example is that there is no Number with which to ratio the event, flipping, and the factor, the wind.
In that example, one would need to multiply the number with additional "flippers". Say, one flipper facing west and another facing east.
Proof would be in taking a separate set of flippers, say, one facing west and another also facing west. The ratio results would be different for each set of flippers, as a result of the single event, but differing factors.
E.G., one Assassin, single event, equals 80%, a separate Assassin, single event, equals 80%; but 2 Assassins, single event, does NOT (guarantee) equal 80%.
Now, MY math may be a little fuzzy (anyone feel free to correct), but I think it goes like this:
1/(E*F) + 1/(E*F) should not sum 2/(E*F) resulting in an equal/greater(?) ratio, because the Factor is not constant only the event!
Too many cooks in the kitchen spoils the soup! ;-)
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Taking bets that the intelligence ratio of a Strategy gamer far exceeds that of a FPSer! http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/smile.gif
Some of you guys are so knowledgeable.
chimera99
10-27-2002, 16:14
Actually, the original question was if I have 5 killers and assign each one a different target where each target is 80%. Now in htis case the trials are independent. Therefor on average you should suceed 4 times out of five. However, there is one catch. They don't tell you what the variance is on htat 80%. If the variance is high then you might have to do a lot of trials to see the the average occur. In any set of 5 trials, ginen theat the possible outcomes are discrete, it would not be unreasonable to see 3-2, but you then should alos see 5-0's as well. One other confounding factor is the skewness of the variance. Anyway, enough of this, I have my own question.
ToranagaSama
10-27-2002, 17:27
They don't tell you what the variance is on htat 80%. If the variance is high then you might have to do a lot of trials to see the the average occur
Bingo!!
You don't know if its constant, you don't know if its single or multiple variances, as you put it, and you don't know if the factors involved in the calculation applies equally to each Assassin. So 80% is 80% for that single Assassin ONLY.
[This message has been edited by ToranagaSama (edited 10-27-2002).]
[This message has been edited by ToranagaSama (edited 10-27-2002).]
Forward Observer
10-27-2002, 23:24
This is making my head hurt, but the simple fact is that they do not give you any information other than the fact that your assassin has a 4 in 5 chance of success.
If 5 assassin take on 5 separate targets, on the AVERAGE 4 should succeed and 1 should fail. These odds do not change whether you use 5 assassin missions or 1000 assassin missions if they all state a 80% success rate.
Once again the true definition of "odds" is the chance that something happens, stated as a ratio. If the ratio remains constant the "odds" do not change.
Only using the minimum of 5 samples will increase the chance for error. Using more will decrease the chance for error in achieving those odds. Those are the laws of probabilities given the information we have. Supposedly the game looks at all of the variables and gives us a simple statement of odds. I should have never mentioned standard deviation because sampling errors have no place here because we do not have that information.
I still stand by my original analysis. If I take 5 assassins and assign them 5 missions and the parchment says I have an 80% success rate in each case, I should see "ON AVERAGE", 4 kills and 1 failure. Now if my luck is bad and I get 5 failures, I repeat this process, and next time I may get very lucky and all 5 are kills. Now I my score is 5 out of 10 or only 50% success rate. I have not achieved the odds at this point due to the small number of tries. If I repeat this process ad infanitum that percentage should get closer and closer to 80%, which are the odds that the parchment is giving me. This all assumes that the conditions do not change and that the "coin" is an honest coin.
What I am not considering, and what you may be trying point out is--that there may be a sampling error that increases with the number of samples. If, at the end of a turn, the target moves to another province, which influences the danger to my assassin, then the odds probably change. Once again this is information that we do not have. This is also information that the parchment does not, and probably cannot, give me.
I guess it is too much to ask of the developers to give us updated percent rate of success for an assassin with each turn.
If you really want ot be bored to death by this subject, check out the following essay:
http://www.nctimes.net/~mark/bibl_science/probabilities.htm
Anyhow I think that we have pretty well beat this subject to death, so I am going to give it a rest for now. The bottom line is that I still think that I loose to many assassins per turn, and I still don't understand how anyone or any group can be 200% loyal. How can anyone be more than 100% loyal?
Cheers
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Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a vulgar brawl.
[This message has been edited by Forward Observer (edited 10-27-2002).]
My 2 cents.
80% chance is only a chance for *the assassination to succeed*. Before you get the chance for assassination at all, the assassin has to pass the check by border forts upon entering the province, if the province has any, and the check by enemy agents if there are any. If he's moving from enemy province to enemy province there's an additional check of border forts when exiting the current province.
So, say that there's a 50% chance of border fort catching him upon exiting, 50% of catching him upon entering, and 50% of him being catched by enemy agents. After all these checks, he still has to pass the 80% chance of success (probably random number generators used for all of these). This means much lower chance of success than 80% alone (you would have a pure 80% chance only if assassinating somebody in your own province unless all is clear).
Of course, this is not officialy confirmed, just the way that I view things. I am not sure whether the checks happen in this order, but they should be all there if the situation allows.
[This message has been edited by hrvojej (edited 10-27-2002).]
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