Heavy Fighting in South Ossetia

[Jolt]

Well, he hunted Westerns ever since he entered in the KGB, and went to East Germany. :P

[Sarmatian]

Well, that tiger was definitely an "easterner", so maybe he switched priorities :laugh4:

[Mailman653]

I say, if the world wants to piss off Russia some more, lets all recongnize Chechyna as a free and independent country.

[Xiahou]

More conciliatory talk (http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080902/ts_afp/georgiarussiaconflict) from Medvedev:
"For us, the present Georgian regime has collapsed. President Saakashvili no longer exists in our eyes. He is a political corpse," Medvedev said in the interview broadcast on Russian television.

[Caius]

Sounds like propaganda.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday Moscow no longer considered Mikheil Saakashvili as Georgia's leader, calling him a "political corpse" and accusing his regime of "aggression that ended in many deaths."
Georgia has Putin as Prime Minister and Medvedev as President. RIP freedom of Georgia.

[Incongruous]

Sounds like bollocks, has Russia realised that it has overstepped the mark?
Or perhaps they have taken all they want?

[Caius]

Sounds like bollocks, has Russia realised that it has overstepped the mark?
I think they are waiting to be attacked, instead of attacking. They provoke, but they won't pass the mark. They will stay one step behind the mark, but they won't do it.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has threatened to dissolve parliament and call elections after the collapse of the country's ruling coalition. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7595667.stm)

[KukriKhan]

And "Shotgun" Dick Cheney is in the region (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/04/world/europe/04cheney.html?ref=world)... and he brought his checkbook.

[CrossLOPER]

Sounds like propaganda.

Georgia has Putin as Prime Minister and Medvedev as President. RIP freedom of Georgia.

Let's try to understand the remarks by pretending we don't have knee-jerk reactions. Saakashvili has become a political corpse because he has brought destruction upon his country through poorly-calculated actions. Hm... Sounds logical.

Also lol@Yushchenko.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Guardian article about how people who hate America, love Russia and have a sexual attraction to oligarchy support Putin's Russia.


To Russia, with love
Why has an odd alliance of leftwingers, Tories and bankers come out for this fascist kleptocracy?
by Edward Lucas
The Guardian, Wednesday September 3 2008: Link (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/03/russia/print)


On Russia, at least, Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg think alike. Belatedly and perhaps emptily, all three party leaders have condemned the invasion of Georgia and demanded a tough response. Yet a different and even odder alliance is taking shape on the other side. Its members include such unlikely figures as Andrew Murray of Stop the War Coalition, David Davies, the Tory MP for Monmouth, and historian Correlli Barnett, as well as anonymous but influential City bankers and lawyers.

The Kremlin's most constant allies are the old pro-Soviet left: people such as Bob Wareing, the veteran leftwing MP for Liverpool, West Derby. He recalls warmly the wartime alliance with Stalin's Soviet Union, and the promise of social justice in the communist system. In the Morning Star, Andrew Murray blames the war in Georgia on American imperialism and contrasts it with the success of "Soviet nationalities policy" in promoting "the cultural, linguistic and educational development of each ethnic group, no matter how small or how historically marginalised". Chechens, Crimean Tatars and other victims of Stalin's murderous deportation policies presumably don't count.

A simpler approach is pure Russophilia: people who love Russia's culture or language, and rejoice in what seems to be a national rebirth under Vladimir Putin. A wider group is sparked chiefly by anti-Americanism. If you hate George W Bush then you may cast a friendly glance on the people who make life difficult for him, such as Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, or Putin in Russia. It is countries such as Russia, however spiky and unattractive, that can derail the new world order. Yet that's odd. If, say, you feel that Muslims get a hard deal from America, then surely the Russian torture camps in Chechnya should make your blood boil?

In odd alliance with the anti-globalists are the champions of international business: those who do well out of selling goods and services to Russia. In the City, investment banks, law firms, accountants and consultants have enjoyed a bonanza thanks to their Russian clients. Auditors such as PricewaterhouseCoopers have not flinched at doing the Kremlin's dirty work - for example in withdrawing their audit of Yukos, once Russia's biggest oil company, which conveniently coincided with Kremlin allegations of fraud. For this pinstriped fifth column, business is business, and worries about human rights or the rule of law are tiresome distractions.

David Wilshire, a leading Conservative member of the Council of Europe parliamentary assembly, has lobbied hard to make Mikhail Margelov, a pro-Putin Russian parliamentarian who used to be a KGB language instructor, the next president of the organisation, which is supposedly devoted to promoting human rights. Then come those such as the polemical Peter Hitchens, who have no great liking for tycoons, but a deep admiration for the nation-state. He writes: "I often wish we were more like Russia, aggressively defending our interests, making sure we owned our own crucial industries, killing terrorists instead of giving in to them, running our own foreign policy instead of trotting two feet behind George W Bush." Russia, he says, has come to stand for national sovereignty and independence, while we give up our own.

Correlli Barnett praises the regime in Russia in a similar vein. In the past few days, for example, Barnett has said: "World peace? Give me Putin any day!"; and "the West should jettison moral indignation and global do-goodery as the basis of policy, and instead emulate Russia's admirable reversion to 19th-century realpolitik". The main motive here is dislike for the whole apparatus of modern diplomacy - multilateral organisations governed by international treaties and at least a notional commitment to human rights.

It is all very odd. Russia is an oil-fuelled fascist kleptocracy ruled by secret police goons and their cronies. It is authoritarian: critics risk forcible incarceration in psychiatric hospitals, or are simply murdered - such as the shooting dead in police custody of Magomed Yevloyev, an Ingush journalist, this week. It is imperialist: bullying neighbours with oil and gas cut-offs, let alone the occupation of Georgia, where Russia's proxies have practised ethnic cleansing on a scale that recalls the atrocities of the wars in former Yugoslavia. And it is deeply corrupt and lawless: something that even Putin's successor as president, Dmitry Medvedev, has acknowledged publicly. However bad other countries may be, it is hard to find anything there worth emulating.

· Edward Lucas is the author of The New Cold War: How the Kremlin Menaces Both Russia and the West

[CrossLOPER]

Here's the article mentioned in the above article. Prepare for more wall of text. Notice how much fun it is to take things out of context.

"OPINION: World peace? Give me Putin anyday!

By Correlli Barnett
Last updated at 8:10 AM on 21st August 2008


Since the Russian Army routed the Georgian incursion into South Ossetia last week, Western politicians and media have been hotly accusing the Russia of President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin, of Soviet-style expansionism by means of bullying small neighbours like Georgia.

In windy rhetoric, U. S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Britain's Foreign Secretary David Miliband pronounce that this alleged strategy would, if continued, pose a threat to world harmony.

It reminds me all too vividly of the way George W. Bush and Tony Blair worked up war fever against Iraq in 2002-2003, entirely on the false basis (as some of us suspected at the time) that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction ready to use against us.
Russian soldiers sit atop a tank, with a portrait of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in the background, in Tskhinvali, the main city of the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia, yesterday

Russian soldiers sit atop a tank, with a portrait of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in the background, in Tskhinvali, the main city of the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia, yesterday

Five years on, we still have to live with the poisonous political and military residue of that particular bout of war fever, including the human grief on a vast scale.

Back in 2002-2003, I warned in this newspaper that an attack on Iraq would result in a protracted guerilla war bringing catastrophe on Iraqis and invaders alike. So it has proved.

Today, I find Russia under Putin and Medvedev much less alarming than America under George W. Bush in his belligerent prime.

And I also find Putin and Medvedev far less of a potential menace to world peace than today's Washington hawks, who even now are acting as intellectual seconds to John McCain in his big fight for the presidency, and who could - heaven forfend - shape American policy if McCain wins.

Hawks like the luxuriantly mustachioed John Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the UN, whose idea of foreign policy is to shout that he can beat any man in the global saloon, and who now berates Condoleezza Rice for relying on diplomacy instead of picking a fight with Putin over the Georgian crisis.

And not forgetting hawks like the ever- so- clever academic theorists in right-wing Washington think-tanks.



These hawks proclaim that by militarily humiliating the Georgian Prime Minister, Mikhail Saakashvili, Russia has begun a new 'Cold War'.

It's time again, we are told, to defend 'freedom and democracy' against aggression.

All this is hysterical nonsense. And why?

Because Prime Minister Putin has no ideological motivation to remodel the world, unlike the Marxist leaders of the Soviet Union or the fervently Christian George W. Bush and Tony Blair.

Instead, Putin is just an old-fashioned Russian autocrat and nationalist of the kind that would have been familiar enough to Bismarck, Palmerston and Disraeli.

Even the trappings of the current Russian regime, such as the state coat of arms or the 19th-century uniforms of Kremlin guards of honour, are pure Czarist revival.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev waves on his departure from Vladikavkaz, capital of North Ossetia, Russia, on Tuesday

You could say the same for the widespread business corruption and the suppression of independent opinion.

So the paramount concern of Putin and his tame President, Medvedev, is to restore Russia's position and prestige as a great power in a world setting.

They do not buy into the fashionable Western concept of 'globalisation', where great foreign companies are free to acquire a nation's major industrial or energy assets. This is why BP is being gradually edged out of the exploitation of Russian oil reserves.

Not for modern Russia the British pattern whereby the electricity supply industry is largely in the hands of a German and a French company. Or whereby future British nuclear plants will be built and run by French- owned EDF. Russia's leaders are, therefore, cool-headed (and possibly cold hearted) calculators of Russia's advantage - men whose outlook is inspired by strategy rather than by idealism or moral purpose.

Hence, the Russian flag placed by submarine on the bottom of the sea below the North Pole, so registering in the most public way Russia's claim to whatever mineral bounty lies below the ice.

These are leaders who want Russia to profit politically as well as economically from her immense wealth in oil and gas, and will ruthlessly use the leverage which these resources give her over all the states dependent on her pipelines.

But none of this amounts to a new ideological 'Cold War', but only to a very old-fashioned great-power rivalry pursued with cunning and caution.

For instance, there is no similarity between the present Russian action in Georgia and the Soviet invasions of Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968.

In both those cases, the Soviet leadership ordered the Red Army to invade in order 'to defend Socialism'.

The mind of the men in today's Kremlin is a world away from such doctrinaire thinking - just as it is from the ideology-heated emotion and belief in a great moral cause which consumes the hawks of Washington.

Just compare the short-lived and limited Russian military intervention in Georgia to secure Russia's own border region with George W. Bush's long-distance invasion of the sovereign state of Iraq in the hope of democratising the Middle East and then the world.

Then again, Western commentators condemn Russia for making threats to Poland and the Czech Republic because they agreed to accept American 'Star Wars' anti-missile systems on their soil.

But imagine what would be the reaction of the Washington hawks to news that Mexico had accepted a Russian anti-missile system just south of the American border! And how would they react if Russia's strategic frontier had advanced as far west in Europe since the end of the Iron Curtain as Nato's strategic frontier has advanced eastwards?

Or for that matter, what would be the reaction of the Washington hawks (and their acolytes in the British media) if Russia sought to recruit Mexico to a Russian military alliance - as NATO certainly intends to recruit Georgia?

I personally am only too grateful that Putin&Co. do not go in for the moralising common to Anglo-Saxon leaders - even those in opposition like David Cameron, who has been proclaiming after visiting Tbilisi that we must all stand by that absurd posturer and blunderer, Saakashvili, Prime Minister of Georgia.

But then, Cameron is not so much 'a liberal Conservative' (in his own words) as simply a liberal, and a liberal in the mode of Gladstone.

I dread what the foreign policy of a Conservative government might be - what fresh far-off entanglements Britain and her Armed Forces could be involved in.

So what is the final lesson I draw from the Georgia crisis?

First, that it is pointless to denounce the actions of Putin and Medvedev when NATO has no military means of intervening - neither forces in the region, nor available reserves to fly in. Strategic reality trumps pious sermons every time.

And the second and far more important lesson: that we in the West should jettison moral indignation and global do-goodery as the basis of policy, and instead emulate Russia's admirable reversion to 19thcentury realpolitik.

Henceforth, we should base our foreign and economic policy on hard-nosed pursuit of our own national interest. "

[Dâriûsh]

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has threatened to dissolve parliament and call elections after the collapse of the country's ruling coalition. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7595667.stm)

And there we have a possible scenario for World War 3. Lovely. :sweatdrop:

[ICantSpellDawg]

And there we have a possible scenario for World War 3. Lovely. :sweatdrop:

I don't know. I think Russia will just take the eastern states of Ukraine and Crimea and the west will deal with it. It has proven to be a tremendous pain in the butt to get our ships through the Bosporus because of that damn 1936 agreement and without a normal Naval presence (including the forbidden aircraft carrier) it would be pretty difficult to contain Federation forces on a distant and, for our intents and purposes, landlocked steppe. Can anyone think around the permanent Turkish Black Sea embargo? I doubt that they would ever sign off on a war with Russia.

We will just be weaker for it and Ukraine will be cut in half. Congratulations. We should start to work on getting Finland and Sweden into NATO now. The Baltic is where we should start this baby if they started and aggressive action against Ukraine.

[Dâriûsh]

I hope you’re right. I just get a bad feeling.


Maybe I’m just in a bad mood today, but in my head, I can already see NATO and Russian tanks in combat across a burning Eastern Europe.

[Sarmatian]

Where did you see WW3 in that text? It says that more or less the only pro NATO politician is losing support (according to the article, his popular support is down to one digit) is angry because no one agrees with him in the government or in the parliament, or for that matter among the population of Ukraine. What's going to happen is that there are gonna be elections this year or next year and he will lose either way. Problem solved.

He's trying to be a big shot, to represent himself as strong democratic leader in a last ditch effort to reverse the situation. But the situation is - he is a failure and his policies are a failure and very few people in Ukraine believe him. Number 2 failure. The first prize is reserved for Saakashvili, of course. His party will get some votes at the next elections but I seriously doubt they're gonna be a part of the next government of Ukraine...

[ICantSpellDawg]

Where did you see WW3 in that text? It says that more or less the only pro NATO politician is losing support (according to the article, his popular support is down to one digit) is angry because no one agrees with him in the government or in the parliament, or for that matter among the population of Ukraine. What's going to happen is that there are gonna be elections this year or next year and he will lose either way. Problem solved.

He's trying to be a big shot, to represent himself as strong democratic leader in a last ditch effort to reverse the situation. But the situation is - he is a failure and his policies are a failure and very few people in Ukraine believe him. Number 2 failure. The first prize is reserved for Saakashvili, of course. His party will get some votes at the next elections but I seriously doubt they're gonna be a part of the next government of Ukraine...

"anybody who cross Russia get crushed by bear!"

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

https://img214.imageshack.us/img214/3070/354av8.jpg

[ICantSpellDawg]

https://img214.imageshack.us/img214/3070/354av8.jpg

hahahaha

[Sarmatian]

"anybody who cross Russia get crushed by bear!"

Seriously mate, you act like this was totally unexpected. There were plenty of warnings, starting from Iraq to Kosovo. No one payed attention. Saakashvili tries to reclaim those regions, Russia has two choices:

1. Don't to anything and appear weak or
2. Answer force with force

In addition, Saakashvili set himself up perfectly for Russia to show that two can play the Kosovo game. In a sense, if you can dismember a country to suit your interest in the region, so can we. Plus it reinforces the message about Iran.

In all ways, Russian response to Georgian attack was much, much milder compared to NATO attack on Serbia in 1999.

Russian campaign ended in days - NATO bombing lasted almost three months.

Not a single bomb dropped on Tbilisi - NATO bombed Belgrade and Novi Sad every day for 78 days, sometimes several times a day.

Russian campaign was limited to S. Ossetia and Abkhazia and a limited territory outside - NATO bombed entire country, even targets several hundred km away. How far is Tbilisi from S. Ossetia? 50km? Wasn't scratched.

Russian campaign was directed against military targets - NATO bombs fell on urban centres, power plants, bridges, tunnels, railways, oil refineries etc...

Bopa said "Russia overstepped the mark". Which mark? The mark was moved a long time ago, when NATO invaded Iraq under false pretext and further moved and reinforced when Kosovo was recognized.

It doesn't work calling Russia autocracy or kleptocracy. Some people need to figure out that being a democracy doesn't excuse you from everything, it doesn't give you the right to invade and/or dismember other countries. We didn't get authority to invade from UN? Who needs them, we'll give ourselves the authority. UN charter forbids forceful and unilateral change of borders? Bah, we'll make our own rules. But when somebody else does something remotely similar on a smaller scale it's - Hey mate, you can't do that, UN charter doesn't allow it. So if anything, calling Russia autocracy or kleptocracy just show that there is no difference between them and democracies. Both are using underhanded methods to further their own interests and, as always, it's the little guys in between that get ****** up.

[Incongruous]

WE SHOULD JUST GO OND WASTE RUSSIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WE SHOULD EXECUTE ALL RUSSIAS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DEATH, DEATH, DEATH TO RUSSIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Or something...

[Incongruous]

Seriously mate, you act like this was totally unexpected. There were plenty of warnings, starting from Iraq to Kosovo. No one payed attention. Saakashvili tries to reclaim those regions, Russia has two choices:

1. Don't to anything and appear weak or
2. Answer force with force

In addition, Saakashvili set himself up perfectly for Russia to show that two can play the Kosovo game. In a sense, if you can dismember a country to suit your interest in the region, so can we. Plus it reinforces the message about Iran.

In all ways, Russian response to Georgian attack was much, much milder compared to NATO attack on Serbia in 1999.

Russian campaign ended in days - NATO bombing lasted almost three months.

Not a single bomb dropped on Tbilisi - NATO bombed Belgrade and Novi Sad every day for 78 days, sometimes several times a day.

Russian campaign was limited to S. Ossetia and Abkhazia and a limited territory outside - NATO bombed entire country, even targets several hundred km away. How far is Tbilisi from S. Ossetia? 50km? Wasn't scratched.

Russian campaign was directed against military targets - NATO bombs fell on urban centres, power plants, bridges, tunnels, railways, oil refineries etc...

Bopa said "Russia overstepped the mark". Which mark? The mark was moved a long time ago, when NATO invaded Iraq under false pretext and further moved and reinforced when Kosovo was recognized.

It doesn't work calling Russia autocracy or kleptocracy. Some people need to figure out that being a democracy doesn't excuse you from everything, it doesn't give you the right to invade and/or dismember other countries. We didn't get authority to invade from UN? Who needs them, we'll give ourselves the authority. UN charter forbids forceful and unilateral change of borders? Bah, we'll make our own rules. But when somebody else does something remotely similar on a smaller scale it's - Hey mate, you can't do that, UN charter doesn't allow it. So if anything, calling Russia autocracy or kleptocracy just show that there is no difference between them and democracies. Both are using underhanded methods to further their own interests and, as always, it's the little guys in between that get ****ed up.

Russia let go of any right to claim parity in international standards when it conquered Eastern Europe, crushed the uprising of '56 and deported and massacred millions.
Supporting Russia is no different from supporting the Nazis...
You're frikin deluded!

[Brenus]

“Russia let go of any right to claim parity in international standards when it conquered Eastern Europe, crushed the uprising of '56 and deported and massacred millions.
Supporting Russia is no different from supporting the Nazis...
You're frikin deluded!”

You mix-up Russia and USSR my dear…:inquisitive:

Samartian is speaking as a person who was under the democratic bombs launched by the free world to get rid of his dictator who was supported by the same powers just few months before. Can’t blame him for the reaction…

If you are not able to see the difference between Nazi and Russian / communist, read each ideology and you will spot the difference… I hope, at least.:book:

So according to you, now all the countries which breached International Law can’t refer to the same laws. Ok, Well, so USA, France, Germany, the all lot which participated to NATO bombing campaign without UN resolution can’t complain about Russian behaviour… All countries which recognised Kosovo can’t either…
The same countries which allowed the Croatian Ethnic cleansing are now giving morality lessons…
The same which use and over use their military power on weaker nations before are now whinging because there is a pay back session.

Don’t get me wrong. I do not accept what Russia is doing against a sovereign country but nor I accept the prepared Ethnic Cleansing planned by the Georgian President.

But the same countries which are given lesson today are the one which initiated the process.
Agreeing to all deportation and population when suited, Serbs from Croatia, Kosovo, Bosnian parts, they show to Georgia that when you’ve got the “western” support you can do what you want.
He was proved wrong.
And I am happy he failed. He launched the rockets. He made the choice to do so. Oh, yeah, perhaps it has been provocation, but if you fall in the trap (like the Serbs did against UCK/KLA) who are the one to blame…

I do not know who is deluded in this, but I think you are in selected for the awards my friend.:beam:

[Incongruous]

Russia, USSR, same people in power and Putin clearly has the same mindset.

Nazism and Communism, a lot of people are murdered, so I guess the outcome is not so different.

Britain and France are yet to commit atrocities on the scale of Russia, in fact most countries are gonna find that a tough act to follow. Russia is run by thugs, murderers and degenerates. It acts accordingly.

The Serbs committed mass murder, the Georgians didn't...

[Banquo's Ghost]

So according to you, now all the countries which breached International Law can’t refer to the same laws. Ok, Well, so USA, France, Germany, the all lot which participated to NATO bombing campaign without UN resolution can’t complain about Russian behaviour… All countries which recognised Kosovo can’t either…

Therein lies the real kernel of this matter.

The Thomas More Corollary.

[Tribesman]

Seriously mate, you act like this was totally unexpected.
It was totally unexpected ...for Tuff anyway .


It says that more or less the only pro NATO politician is losing support (according to the article, his popular support is down to one digit) is angry because no one agrees with him in the government or in the parliament, or for that matter among the population of Ukraine.
Damn , I thought perhaps he could just about struggle and keep his approval level above the 10% mark for a while longer, then again once he started calling his allies and supporters traitors , it was bound to slide .


Well played Brenus , you shoot you score , but the opposition are still looking for the ball and asking the ref what time the game is going to start at .

[Sarmatian]

Supporting Russia is no different from supporting the Nazis...
You're frikin deluded!



The Serbs committed mass murder, the Georgians didn't...

Is that so?

I don't have the time nor the inclination to explain the same thing I explained several times already in this thread. If you're interested, look it up.

If you're not, well, then I'm a frikin deluded Nazi supporter who also moonlights as a mass murderer.

[Brenus]

"The Serbs committed mass murder, the Georgians didn't..." Thanks to to the Russians they didn't get the time...
I wish we had done it in Bosnia... Intervening, I mean...

The Croats did. The Kosovar did. Even the bosnians did. But they weren't bomb. They even are not trial...

[ICantSpellDawg]

I didn't expect things to blow up last month in the Caucasus. I did expect the Russian Federation to increase aggression against the west. Tribesman expects everything that happens at all times, never suprised by a single thing - it's a profound gift, paying off for him in lottery winnings and successful inter-personal relationships. He is truly a man to be admired for his deep geopolitical savvy and his witty and accurate responses to all occurrences. Hardly ever one to share his deep insights - rather he covers them up with well reasoned quips and symbolism (mostly "idiot" and ":laugh4:"). Clearly he is an intellectual force to be reckoned with, sometimes enshrouding his ability to speak English coherently, writing as if he isn't a natural speaker which is truly misleading in a coy and well thought out way.

[Husar]

Tribesman expects everything that happens at all times, never suprised by a single thing - it's a profound gift, paying off for him in lottery winnings and successful inter-personal relationships. He is truly a man to be admired for his deep geopolitical savvy and his witty and accurate responses to all occurrences. Hardly ever one to she his deep insights - rather he covers them up with well reasoned quips and symbolism (mostly "idiot" and ":laugh4:"). Clearly he is an intellectual force to be reckoned with, sometimes enshrouding his ability to speak English coherently, writing as if he isn't a natural speaker which is truly misleading in a coy and well thought out way.

Sums up my feelings about him pretty well, truly a great orgah and intelligent poster! :2thumbsup:

[Tribesman]

Tribesman expects everything that happens at all times, never suprised by a single thing - it's a profound gift, paying off for him in lottery winnings and successful inter-personal relationships.
Oh so you're one of those Tuff , good .
Can I sell you an idiot proof book on how to forsee a random sequence of numbers generated at random , please send an order of $24.99 to Gullible travels....or of course just keep playing the lottery and send your money to another scam artist instead

[JR-]

The following seems approriate at this point of the discussion:

"Ferrous Cranus is utterly impervious to reason, persuasion and new ideas, and when engaged in battle he will not yield an inch in his position regardless of its hopelessness. Though his thrusts are decisively repulsed, his arguments crushed in every detail and his defenses demolished beyond repair he will remount the same attack again and again with only the slightest variation in tactics. Sometimes out of pure frustration Philosopher will try to explain to him the failed logistics of his situation, or Therapist will attempt to penetrate the psychological origins of his obduracy, but, ever unfathomable, Ferrous Cranus cannot be moved."

[Caius]

Saakashvili has become a political corpse because he has brought destruction upon his country through poorly-calculated actions.
What did he do? As far as I knew, in July Georgia didn't exist for me.

And no, I'm not kidding.

[Incongruous]

"The Serbs committed mass murder, the Georgians didn't..." Thanks to to the Russians they didn't get the time...
I wish we had done it in Bosnia... Intervening, I mean...

The Croats did. The Kosovar did. Even the bosnians did. But they weren't bomb. They even are not trial...

Add Georgia to that list and you will be making an argument...

@Sarmation: What, so the Serbs didn't kill lots of people?
Russia's ruling elite are not the same scumbags that used to run the place? They don't kill lots of people? They don't oppress a lot of people? Well slap me!

[Banquo's Ghost]

The Russians may have won a military advantage in the same old way, but they are being punished in the same old way. The economy is taking a dive (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/063ec2b6-7b24-11dd-b839-000077b07658,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F1%2F063ec2b6-7b24-11dd-b839-000077b07658.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fuk). (Apologies for the snippet, but the bulk is subscribers only and I would break copyright posting it here).

In essence, not only has the stock market tanked, but foreign investors are taking flight. Up till now, investors haven't worried overmuch about the degrading of democracy - quite the opposite - but sentiment now considers Russia to be an unstable risk.

It may be short term and it is certainly fixable, but when sentiment turns, as we all know, it's a dangerous tide.

(Ah, here's a less focussed (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/06/russia.globaleconomy) but more accessible article).

[Caius]

Even if they forget what they did and everything is back, investors won't come back. Bad move Russia.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Considering how Russia has treated foreign oil companies (Hey, come and invest until we gain the knowledge we need and then we'll force you out by hook or crook and take your assets) I'm surprised anyone would want to invest in Russia before this conflict.

CR

[Brenus]

"Even if they forget what they did and everything is back, investors won't come back. Bad move Russia.":laugh4:
It is what you wish. "Insvestitors will run to Russia as soon they can, like they did for Khomeiny's Iran, and all others dictatorships with oil...
Oil has no smell and no memory...:beam:
That is free trade...

In term of Russia, the bad move would have to let NATO lover Georgian President to put a "shield" on Russian Borders..

[Banquo's Ghost]

Considering how Russia has treated foreign oil companies (Hey, come and invest until we gain the knowledge we need and then we'll force you out by hook or crook and take your assets) I'm surprised anyone would want to invest in Russia before this conflict.


Oil companies have often been treated this way by authoritarian governments. They factor in these costs and risks and still make oodles of money. Russia is still safer than many places as it is possible to know the lie of the land - in other words, who to bribe.

It also depends on the sector. I have some fairly big investments in Russian agricultural land and in that sector, there's very little interest from potential kleptocrats. In the rural areas, officialdom operates much the same way as it has for generations, and as long as the magistracy and the governor is appropriately compensated for their troubles, there is little to no threat of interference. (No-one gets a Chelsea flat on the back of farming). We factor those payments into margins, and still are on the way to making a very decent return. (I'd be much less keen if Ukraine starts being messed about with, as that estate makes very decent money).

Russia still has lots to offer the investor, particularly in commodity production, but her achilles heel is total lack of infrastructure. And if she continues to behave badly, there are better and safer places. Land, for better or worse, is not so portable.

[Caius]

Insvestitors will run to Russia as soon they can, like they did for Khomeiny's Iran, and all others dictatorships with oil...Oil has no smell and no memory...That is free trade...Not when there is war, I'd say. Why would them return if they are in conflict? Or am I exxagerating the whole thing?

[JR-]

Shareholders will question investments in countries where the legal protection is poor, especially when there is a history of Gov't intervention for foreign policy purposes.

Russia will pay one way or the other.

[Brenus]

"Not when there is war": War? There is no war in Russia. Nobody will start a war against Russia.
Soon enough it will business as usual.

"Russia will pay one way or the other" Yeah yeah yeah... In gaz and oil, paid in cash...
Nothing personal Jack, only business...

[ICantSpellDawg]

The westernized segment of their economy will suffer, not their oil or land based sectors.

[JR-]

"Not when there is war": War? There is no war in Russia. Nobody will start a war against Russia.
Soon enough it will business as usual.

"Russia will pay one way or the other" Yeah yeah yeah... In gaz and oil, paid in cash...
Nothing personal Jack, only business...

russia is suffering from the belgium disease, economically they do nothing but export raw materials.

if they don't have inward investment from technology companies to build a future then russia is going to be an ugly place in twenty five years time with an ageing population of invalid alcoholics, and no gas to pay for their welfare and liver transplants!

[CrossLOPER]

russia is suffering from the belgium disease, economically they do nothing but export rare materials.

if they don't have inward investment from technology companies to build a future then russia is going to be an ugly place in twenty five years time with an ageing population of invalid alcoholics, and no gas to pay for their welfare and liver transplants!
wow

[Incongruous]

wow

Does that stand for something?
Or does i mean you have fully grasped just how backwards Russia is?

[JR-]

wow
Cologne and cleaning agents: Russia's killer drinks
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn12071-cologne-and-cleaning-agents-russias-killer-drinks.html

Russias economic policies:
http://ftp.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34512.pdf

Russia again as an economic superpower:
http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~daviscrs/seminars_conferences/goldman09_25_02.pdf

Russian demographic decline:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH19Ag05.html

[Caius]

There is no war in Russia.
When Russia fights a war, technically there is a war in Russia, even if the enemy doesn't make to get inside.

[Sarmatian]

russia is suffering from the belgium disease, economically they do nothing but export rare materials.

if they don't have inward investment from technology companies to build a future then russia is going to be an ugly place in twenty five years time with an ageing population of invalid alcoholics, and no gas to pay for their welfare and liver transplants!

Rare materials? In almost everything that grows or can be found in northern hemisphere Russia is in the top ten producers, top five in many. And according to estimates, Russian GDP in 40 years is going to be twice the size of German, with only somewhat bigger population. So effectively, your average Russian is going to be richer than your average German or French or Brit for that matter.

The only real issue Russia has in this century is declining population, but I guess that will change too in a decade or two with growth of the economy, Russia may see some significant immigration. It was unimaginable only a decade ago but now you could hear more and more about people going to Russia for business opportunities, as growing economy and aging population means more and more jobs openings and bigger and bigger salaries...

[JR-]

sorry, that should read "raw materials".

the fact remains that too much of russias's economy relies on crude and gas, this coupled with the fact that foreign companies don't like being treated as political pawns, will mean that russia is going to have real problem in future.

[JR-]

Sarko in new super-duper breakthru deal with Russia:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/2706827/Georgia-crisis-Nicolas-Sarkozy-hails-breakthrough-in-talks-with-Russia.html

The magic words; "undisputed georgian territory".

Nice one Sarko, Russia has agreed to move back to the border of the newly recognised countries of Azbakaziaiaiaiaia and Ossettia, a great victory for european diplomacy!

[CrossLOPER]

I was about to say, the cynicism is staggering.

[Xiahou]

Sarko in new super-duper breakthru deal with Russia:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/2706827/Georgia-crisis-Nicolas-Sarkozy-hails-breakthrough-in-talks-with-Russia.html

The magic words; "undisputed georgian territory".

Nice one Sarko, Russia has agreed to move back to the border of the newly recognised countries of Azbakaziaiaiaiaia and Ossettia, a great victory for european diplomacy!

Medvedev's expression in the photo accompanying that article says it all. :laugh4:

[Banquo's Ghost]

Another thoughtful editorial from the FT (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/da1a61c8-7f64-11dd-a3da-000077b07658.html)on the looming economic problems that Putin's policies may be visiting on Russia.

The price of Putin

Published: September 10 2008 19:29 | Last updated: September 10 2008 19:29

James Carville, campaign manager to President Bill Clinton back in 1992, put it with characteristic directness. “If there was a reincarnation,” he said, “I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”

Perhaps Russia’s Vladimir Putin, the prime minister who still seems to be calling the shots in Moscow, ought to pay a bit more attention to such sentiments. In a matter of weeks, the markets in Russia have turned on a combination of economic doubts, business fears and a sudden change in the assessment of political risk. An exodus of foreign capital, a dearth of credit from Russian banks and a loss of confidence among Russian as well as foreign shareholders have transformed the mood in Moscow from over-confidence to gloom.

The process did not begin with Russia’s bloody war with Georgia, although that has badly unsettled international investors. The biggest shock came from Mr Putin’s own intemperate use of language, when he publicly threatened to “purge” one of Russia’s billionaire businessmen, owner of the New York-listed coalminer Mechel, for alleged price-gouging. His comments wiped almost $60bn off the Russian stock market at the end of July. They were seen as a grim reminder that power, not the rule of law, runs Russia.

Until then, many investors saw the market as a one-way bet on rising oil and gas prices, well-insulated from the international credit crunch. They dismissed warnings of political risk from the transfer of power in the Kremlin. The rising Russian middle classes believed in Mr Putin’s narrative of a resurgent Russia, combining political stability with prosperity.

The reality is that the economy has been rebuilt on a single pillar – energy. Its banks and capital markets are clumsy and inefficient. The domestic market has been unable to step in when foreign credit has dried up. That is compounded by a government whose economic competence is limited.

As prime minister, Mr Putin is now most responsible for the economy. Not only has he spooked the markets by talking of businessmen as if they were Chechen terrorists; he has also shocked ordinary Russians by dismissing rising inflation – their greatest concern – as none of his business. He blamed the central bank. After eight years of energy-fuelled growth, he is ill-prepared for any downturn.

Russia’s reassertion of its military muscle in Georgia makes matters worse, even if most Russians believe the action was justified. Being at loggerheads with the US and the western world will not make access to global capital markets any easier. Western investors are not going to pull out of Russia, but they will demand a higher risk premium. The cost to Russia may be far higher than that of invading a small country in the Caucasus.

[JR-]

interesting article.



the fact remains that too much of russias's economy relies on crude and gas, this coupled with the fact that foreign companies don't like being treated as political pawns, will mean that russia is going to have real problem in future.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Georgia claims that intercepted calls detailed Russian armor movement through the Roki tunnel 20 hours prior to the Georgian action on South Ossetia - Russia denies. (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D937V7H80&show_article=1)

What does everyone think? I'm sure that it will be

A) Yes, sound credible, Russia stinks.

or

B) No, It is all lies, Russia is our hero

[JR-]

i have sympathy with (A), but the russian general quoted is correct to say that western recon satellites could easily confirm or deny russian troop movements.

even if their wasn't a satellite in position to take a mug-shot of the russian column on route to ossettia there would have been one an hour later to show deserted tank parks inside the russian border.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

i have sympathy with (A), but the russian general quoted is correct to say that western recon satellites could easily confirm or deny russian troop movements.

even if their wasn't a satellite in position to take a mug-shot of the russian column on route to ossettia there would have been one an hour later to show deserted tank parks inside the russian border.

Yes, I'm waiting for the West to confirm this. I don't trust Georgia any more than I trust Russia at the moment.

[Conqueror]

Seems suspicious. Why wait for so long bring up such evidence?

[Sarmatian]

Seems suspicious. Why wait for so long bring up such evidence?

Well, it could be that they've only recently acquired it. I don't think that's the issue. But intercepted mobile phone call is hardly a conclusive evidence anyway. Satellite pictures on the other hand could prove the thing without a doubt...

[Caius]

Why would they use a cellphone? I mean, it does not sound credible at all. They could have faked it.
C-No, It is all lies, BUT Russia is NOT our hero

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Necromancy, yes, but important to the issue:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7658385.stm