The Final US Election Thread

[CountArach]

Well the election is finally upon us… errr… you… and as such this will be the final election day/night thread that Kukri has asked me to open. I’ve been following the election very closely, especially the tactics and polling, so I feel I can offer some analysis of what to expect on election night. There is also a lot of polling data collected below for those who want it (I only included the most important states). I’ve put up the polling not just for the President but also for the most competitive Senate races and the likely house results.

The first map I thought I would create is where I believe the race currently stands – both based on polling and a gut feeling. Yellow is a toss-up. After that I shall run through the various likely scenarios based on this map.

https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r44/CountArach/Pic2-TossUpStates.jpg
Where I believe the race is.

Simply put, the simplest way for Obama to win this election is to win the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. This puts him at 273 Electoral Votes, needing 270 for victory.

https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r44/CountArach/Pic1-ObamaEasyWin.jpg
Obama’s simplest route to victory – Kerry + IA + CO + NM

However, Obama is not just winning in those three states (Though he is winning all of them); he is also winning in many other states according to the polls. As such I thought it would be worth putting together a ‘best case’ scenario for the Obama campaign that shows what a map where Obama wins in an absolute landslide would be.

https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r44/CountArach/Pic3-ObamaLandslide.jpg
An Obama landslide – not likely but still imaginable.

Of course there are many, many middle ground options – such as losing Colorado while winning Virginia. Obama has a solid lead in many EVs and as such there are a lot of routes open to victory for him.

So what does McCain have to do to win? You can see a basic idea here (http://www.411mania.com/politics/columns/89380/What-Would-A-McCain-Win-Look-Like?.htm) and a more complex one here (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html). In essence the two maps below show the likely results:

https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r44/CountArach/Pic4-McCainwin1.jpg
McCain win 1

https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r44/CountArach/Pic5-McCainwin2.jpg
McCain win 2

Note that in map 1 Nevada is absolutely crucial because if it flipped to Obama there would be an electoral college tie and as such Obama would win the Presidency after a vote from the Democratic House. Map 2 seems slightly more plausible because it relies on fewer things going McCain’s way – he can still afford to lose a few EVs along the way and he only has to flip 1 states while holding onto the Toss-ups (Examples might include losing Missouri or Indiana, which puts McCain on 270, just enough to scrape in).

Just a small note on the Popular Vote – I think it will be hard to determine what will happen with this. While I believe Obama will win it by 4 or 5 points it may be hard to tell what will happen on the west coast. An early call of the race (Which seems likely if Obama does in fact win both Virginia and North Carolina) may dampen turnout in California, which will probably knock off a lot of Obama’s votes.

So here is the Presidential polling data from numerous sources for several states (As of when I posted this – they will probably change on the morning of the election – I’ll do a polling update then). Intrade is an election betting site – and it has been fairly stable and has remained with the other polling sources fairly closely most of the year. If anyone wants me to look at any other state and give my view on what will happen, feel free and I’ll get right onto it. The same goes for the Senate races.

The four Senate races down the bottom are the most competitive this year and all will be interesting on election night (especially the three-way race in Minnesota where the Libertarian is polling in double digits). If the winner of the Georgia race is below 50%, which is entirely possible given that the Libertarian is in mid single digits, then it goes to a run-off later on – that race would attract millions of dollars on both sides. The Democrats are almost guaranteed to win 55 seats, with 2 Democratic-leaning Independents as well. Winning any 3 of the below will give the Democrats a filibuster-proof majority.

The House numbers are just something I tagged onto the end for anyone who is interested. Cook Political Report and CQ Politics don’t just use polling numbers; they also look at how well a politician matches their district politically. I really don’t know enough about most of the House stuff to be able to comment on it with any authority.

Important States
Colorado
538 Probability – Obama 96%
Pollster.com – Obama +6.9
RCP – Obama +10.7
Electoral-Vote.com – Obama +7
Intrade – Obama 87%
Florida
538 Probability – 64%
Pollster.com – Obama +2.5
RCP – Obama +4.2
Electoral-Vote.com – Obama +3
Intrade – Obama 70%
Indiana
538 Probability – McCain 73%
Pollster.com – McCain +0.5
RCP – McCain +0.5
Electoral-Vote.com – McCain +2
Intrade – McCain 57%
Missouri
538 Probability – McCain 61%
Pollster.com – McCain +1.8
RCP – McCain +0.7
Electoral-Vote.com – McCain +1
Intrade – McCain 54%
Montana
538 Probability – McCain 81%
Pollster.com – McCain +3.3
RCP – McCain +3.8
Electoral-Vote.com – McCain +4
Intrade – McCain 80%
Nevada
538 Probability – Obama 85%
Pollster.com – Obama +5.9
RCP – Obama +5.8
Electoral-Vote.com – Obama +7
Intrade – Obama 83%
New Hampshire
538 Probability – Obama 99%
Pollster.com – Obama +11.3
RCP – Obama +10.7
Electoral-Vote.com – Obama +13
Intrade – Obama 83%
North Carolina
538 Probability – Obama 53%
Pollster.com – Obama +1.3
RCP – Obama +0.3
Electoral-Vote.com – Obama +2
Intrade – Obama 67%
North Dakota
538 Probability – McCain 75%
Pollster.com – Obama +3.1
RCP – Not enough data
Electoral-Vote.com – McCain +1
Intrade – McCain 75%
Ohio
538 Probability – Obama 80%
Pollster.com – Obama +6.3
RCP – Obama +4.2
Electoral-Vote.com – Obama +6
Intrade – Obama 78%
Pennsylvania
538 Probability – Obama 98%
Pollster.com – Obama +7.7
RCP – Obama +7.0
Electoral-Vote.com – Obama +9
Intrade – Obama 78%
Virginia
538 Probability – Obama 93%
Pollster.com – Obama +6.3
RCP – Obama +3.8
Electoral-Vote.com – Obama +7
Intrade – Obama 84%
Popular Vote
538 Popular Vote – Obama 51.5 to 46.4
Pollster.com – Obama +6
RCP – Obama +6.4
Key Senate Races
Alaska
Incumbent – Stevens (R)
Challenger – Begich (D)
Pollster.com – Begich +3.8
RCP – Begich +10.3
538 – Begich 100%
Note that Stevens has recently been indicted and as such he is unlikely to hold onto his seat.
Georgia
Incumbent – Chambliss (R)
Challenger – Martin (D)
Pollster.com – Chambliss +2.8
RCP – Chambliss +2.7
538 – Chambliss 84%
Kentucky
Incumbent – McConnell (R)
Challenger – Lunsford (D)
Pollster.com – McConnell +3.1
RCP – McConnell +13.5
538 – McConnell 84%
Minnesota
Incumbent – Coleman (R)
Challenger – Franken (D), Barkley (L)
Pollster.com – Franken +2.4
RCP – Coleman +2.2
538 – Franken 53%
House Results
Currently 236 D – 198 R

Pollster.com
Democrats – 245
Republicans – 166
Toss Up – 24

Real Clear Politics
Democrats – 236
Republicans – 173
Toss Up – 26

CQ Politics – Very reputable
Democrats – 241
Republicans – 168
Toss Up – 26

Cook Political Report – Also reputable
Democrats – 238
Republicans – 161
Toss Up – 35

[KukriKhan]

A couple of small towns in New Hampshire opened their polls just minutes after midnight, their time, therefore:

this thread is now Open For Business. Thank you CountArach for the OP.

[LittleGrizzly]

Yes good op, love reading the various polls and stuff, so CA which of your potential results do you think most likely ?

[TevashSzat]

Wow, really great work there CA.

I think tonight is going to be like an Obama landslide, but not as much

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Nicely done Arach -- a balanced analysis where you've outlined all the key variables. Well done. My thoughts just after the nominations were decided was more or less a slight variant on your Obama case 1 win.

[Lemur]

If we keep giving CA all of this love he's going to be unlivable. Please, stop appreciating and thanking and being civil. CountArch, I hear, um, your model is off by seven points! Yeah, you heard me! You been served!

(In all seriousness, your OP is jaw-droppingly fine, and you deserve to count coup and reap kudos.)

[TinCow]

So, can anyone report on the lines? My agency is getting out of work 2 hours early for voting, but from what I'm hearing I'm bringing a book and expecting to be in line for a long time.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I think, on this day, we must all stop and pay homage to the great rock anthem of old:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SM0WIP7eMYs

We'll be fighting in the streets
With our children at our feet
And the morals that they worship will be gone
And the men who spurred us on
Sit in judgement of all wrong
They decide and the shotgun sings the song

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again

The change, it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the fold, that's all
And the world looks just the same
And history ain't changed
'Cause the banners, they are flown in the next war

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
No, no!

I'll move myself and my family aside
If we happen to be left half alive
I'll get all my papers and smile at the sky
Though I know that the hypnotized never lie
Do ya?

Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!

There's nothing in the streets
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye
And the parting on the left
Are now parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
No, no!

Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss

[Gregoshi]

So, can anyone report on the lines? My agency is getting out of work 2 hours early for voting, but from what I'm hearing I'm bringing a book and expecting to be in line for a long time.
I'll be heading to the polls in about an hour - mid-morning to hopefully avoid the longer lines. I'll be bringing a book, a drink and a small snack in case it goes too long - and I'm debating about a sleeping bag. :laugh4:

My wish for this election is a clean election with no major controversies. This country doesn't need another election like 2000. May the winner possess the wisdom required by these times and may he surround himself with the best people, regardless of their party affiliation. And may the severe divisiveness of the past several years turn to a mere dislike. :laugh4:

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Nice one GH :beam:

The dixville notch results are in:

Obama: 17
McCain: 10

[Banquo's Ghost]

I'll add my thanks to CA for a thorough and detailed opening post. Excellent work!

Things look quite extraordinary from potential turn-out point of view. Some commentators I've seen are predicting a possible 85% turn-out - with a more likely figure being 65%. This is just wonderful - people inspired to vote, willing to stand in long queues for hours to exercise their franchise.

After all my fears of voter apathy in Western democracies, it looks like the United States are going to prove me wrong again!

EDIT: According to the Beeb, Dixville Notch, New Hampshire went 15-6 to Obama. It was Hart's Location that went 17-10.

[Lord Winter]

Do you have any stats about the oregon senate race?

[TinCow]

Well, there's one obvious reason for the high voter turnout. Free food alert:


Free Scoop on Election Day at Ben and Jerry's (http://www.benjerry.com/features/i_voted/)
Come to participating scoop shops on November 4th from 5-8pm, and you'll get a free scoop of ice cream.

Free Doughnuts on Election Day at Krispy Kreme (http://www.krispykreme.com/)
Krispy Kreme will be giving out free star-shaped doughnuts with red, white, and blue sprinkles to anyone coming in with an "I Voted" sticker. "While voters may not always agree on the best candidate, voters can agree on one thing: Celebrating one of America's most coveted constitutional rights can be oh-so sweet," the company said in an announcement of the giveaway.

Free Coffee on Election Day at Starbucks
Voters who cast their ballots this Election Day could score more than a sense of civic pride. Starbucks Corp. is offering a free tall-size brewed coffee Tuesday to voters across the nation. All they need is a proof of voting or, in some cases, their own honest word.

Chick-fil-A
Go into one of their locally-owned franchises today (and perhaps tomorrow) and get a free chicken sandwich. I’m not sure just how many of their stores are planning the giveaway, but in some you show your sticker and in some you bring in one of your Presidential yard signs in exchange for a sandwich (intended to help clean up the inevitable trash left over on November 5) and in some you just show up. Check your local franchise.

[edit]More freebies (http://lifehacker.com/5075721/election-day-freebies-roundup).

[Banquo's Ghost]

I'm sure someone mentioned this in the earlier thread, but apparently, every election since 1937 when the Washington Redskins won the home game before the election, the incumbent party stayed in power. If they lost, so did the incumbent.

Steelers 23 - Redskins 6. :balloon:

Just sayin'. :bounce:

[tibilicus]

Good luck today America in exercising your right to vote.

To be honest due to the media here in the UK we're really kept in the dark over the elections, I personally find the news coverage of it dumbed down and not really presenting any facts.

We've been told of an Obama win but just talking to a McCain supporter the mood seems really good in the republican camp.

The world shall be watching these results with much held breath indeed.

[LittleGrizzly]

Banquo i thought that one went wrong in the '04 election, infact didn't most of the conicidences in elections point to a kerry win in '04 ?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Tbil:

Yes, most of the undecideds are breaking towards McCain today, which has McCain teamers hopeful. The problem for the GOP is that McCain needs 2/3s+ among the undecideds to win enough states and must steal at least one state that's leaning Obama as of this weekend (a TALL order, though not impossible). Obama, to win, has only to hold what is already leaning towards him in the polls Or upset McCain in one mid-size state like NC or AZ.


LINE REPORT (please note, inherently anecdotal data)

Polling line was longer than I have seen it. Ever. Any election in VA or the one I voted in TX.

Compared to the line I experienced at the same time of day for the last Congressional election, I would estimate interest is AT LEAST a full order of magnitude greater. VA will set a record for total votes and total percentage of those eligible actually voting. They'll probably have to go back to 1792 to find an election that turned out a higher percentage of eligible Virginians.

More under 25 year of age types by far than I am used to seeing were in line, somewhat more persons of African descent. Both of these anecdotal points -- especially coming from VA 1st where I live -- suggest Obama will win the VA vote handily and that Warner will defeat Gilmour for the Senate slot being vacated by Warner by an even greater margin. Whittman probably retains his HoR seat -- the VA 1st is quite conservative.

This district will show wins for a McCain and Whittman for the GOP and Warner for the Dems (narrowly). But the GOP margins will, I am estimating, be much lower than in other years. Commonwealth-wide, that bodes poorly for the GOP.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Banquo i thought that one went wrong in the '04 election, infact didn't most of the conicidences in elections point to a kerry win in '04 ?

Yes, looks like you are right. The 'Skins last home game before the 2004 election was hosting the Green Bay Packers who beat them 28-14.

That's what I get for trusting euro-journalists. They probably meant the soccer redskins. :embarassed:

[TinCow]

Polling line was longer than I have seen it. Ever. Any election in VA or the one I voted in TX.

Two of my co-workers voted before work, one in VA and one in DC. The DC person showed up to the polling place at 6:40am (for a 7:00am opening) and there were 100 people in front of her. However, she was finished by 7:30am. The VA person waited about 1.5 hours to vote. Washington Post is reporting (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/04/AR2008110401000.html?hpid=topnews) lines over 3.5 hours in some places.

[Gregoshi]

I got in line at 10:30am and it took me about 50 minutes to complete the whole process. Not bad. Of 2200 people in my precinct, about 1/4 have voted (600) with only six voting machines. Here's a picture of the outside line at my polling place (fire company):

https://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h12/gbresslr/Org%20Pictures/Electionline2008.jpg

There are actually two lines split alphabetically, though those standing in the parking lot probably aren't aware of it yet. The line inside the building was about 2/3 the length of the outside line. This was at 11:30am. A worker at the fire hall said the line this morning extended out to about where I was standing to take the picture. I don't envy those who will be voting after work. Long lines and there is a chance of showers later today.

[Gregoshi]

D'oh! Two posts in this thread and I've forgotten to thank CA for his awesome election coverage. Very well done! ~:pat: and :bow:

[Koga No Goshi]

So, can anyone report on the lines? My agency is getting out of work 2 hours early for voting, but from what I'm hearing I'm bringing a book and expecting to be in line for a long time.

Lines are almost entirely nonexistent at my polling place. I have never stood in a line for more than ten minutes, I live in a relatively quiet neighborhood and there's just never been a huge crush to vote on election days at any particular time. But, I went this morning before work, and out of the two machines they had to accept the ballots (we use paper/inkblot voting and then you have to feed it into an automatic accepter) broke. So, I was in line for a good hour and a half. Nothing compared to the stories you hear about 3, 5, 8 hour waits in hotly contested districts in Ohio or Florida-- but still, that was a multiplied increase and I had never, never been there when all of the little voting booths were totally full ... they were today.

I am sure, if you are used to lines at your location, they will be worse than usual. So don't wait until 6:30pm after work to vote if you live in such a district.

[Oleander Ardens]

Great Work, CA. Nice posts so far.

[Gregoshi]

...(we use paper/inkblot voting and then you have to feed it into an automatic accepter)...
Ditto here. The voting booth in a suitcase. :laugh4: We only have one scanner though.

[PanzerJaeger]

Regardless of whether this is a Republican or Democratic year, the way McCain has run his campaign is inexcusable.

I really hope he wins, though. Reinstatement of the assault weapons ban is going to mess me up. :sweatdrop:

BTW, good job CA. :bow:

[Strike For The South]

I waited 5 minutes to vote.

[Koga No Goshi]

Regardless of whether this is a Republican or Democratic year, the way McCain has run his campaign is inexcusable.


Holy crap, what makes you say that?

I'm surprised.

[Strike For The South]

Holy crap, what makes you say that?

I'm surprised.

1. Picking Palin
2. Flip-flopping on experience
3. Not being the McCain we saw in 2000
4. Not hitting Obama on tangible things
5. Allowing his supporters to be painted as idiots who thought Obama was terrorist socialist.
6. Picking Palin

All reasons in the end I couldnt vote for the man

[Prince Cobra]

I got in line at 10:30am and it took me about 50 minutes to complete the whole process. Not bad. Of 2200 people in my precinct, about 1/4 have voted (600) with only six voting machines. Here's a picture of the outside line at my polling place (fire company):

https://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h12/gbresslr/Org%20Pictures/Electionline2008.jpg

There are actually two lines split alphabetically, though those standing in the parking lot probably aren't aware of it yet. The line inside the building was about 2/3 the length of the outside line. This was at 11:30am. A worker at the fire hall said the line this morning extended out to about where I was standing to take the picture. I don't envy those who will be voting after work. Long lines and there is a chance of showers later today.

This can not happen in Bulgaria :no: :no: In my country it is like there is a disease in the places where people vote. (weird way to protest against the politicians, I know)

Useless comments from Stephen Asen expected after the Election day is over... :medievalcheers:

[Koga No Goshi]

1. Picking Palin
2. Flip-flopping on experience
3. Not being the McCain we saw in 2000
4. Not hitting Obama on tangible things
5. Allowing his supporters to be painted as idiots who thought Obama was terrorist socialist.
6. Picking Palin




I'm surprised because in the election thread we went one and a half hundred pages on things like:

1. "Obama's VP pick was just as bad/worse."
2. "Obama flip flops on everything, you can't trust him."
3. "Obama pretends to be for working people but he's really going to tax them out of existence."
4. "Obama's campaign and supporters are just as personal and attack just as low below the belt."
5. What? Weren't like the last 10-15 pages of the election thread people condemning Obama as a socialist? It seems like a lot of McCain supporters really believe that, and not just the idiot ones.
6. "The media just wasn't nice to her."

I don't disagree with your objective assessment of McCain's campaign, and yes Strike I know that you are non partisan in this race (though I wouldn't say you're totally politically neutral either, but close enough compared to a diehard McCain or diehard Obama supporter), I am just surprised to see people um... "confessing it", at this late hour?

I know there have been some early detractors on the Republican side of how McCain has run is campaign. But there have equally been many posters defending it or eviscerating Obama's as just as bad or worse in every single respect right up until the final page of the election thread. So I'm in a bit of shock.

[Strike For The South]

I'm surprised because in the election thread we went one and a half hundred pages on things like:

1. "Obama's VP pick was just as bad/worse."
2. "Obama flip flops on everything, you can't trust him."
3. "Obama pretends to be for working people but he's really going to tax them out of existence."
4. "Obama's campaign and supporters are just as personal and attack just as low below the belt."
5. What? Weren't like the last 10-15 pages of the election thread people condemning Obama as a socialist? It seems like a lot of McCain supporters really believe that, and not just the idiot ones.
6. "The media just wasn't nice to her."

I don't disagree with your objective assessment of McCain's campaign, and yes Strike I know that you are non partisan in this race (though I wouldn't say you're totally politically neutral either, but close enough compared to a diehard McCain or diehard Obama supporter), I am just surprised to see people um... "confessing it", at this late hour?

I know there have been some early detractors on the Republican side of how McCain has run is campaign. But there have equally been many posters defending it or eviscerating Obama's as just as bad or worse in every single respect right up until the final page of the election thread. So I'm in a bit of shock.

1. Biden may be the ultimate politician but he certainly has a better mind than Palin and much more experience in foreign policy
2. True but McCain ran on trust and he destroyed that buy selling out for votes
3. Ummmm I would've voted for McCain 2000 but the 08 verison is a shell of the former man.
4. Not so much There really haven't been many attacks on McCain and Palin is like a Biden without the big words to cover her mess
5. He has very socialistic tendencies but painting him as Marx only turns the independents off and gives Obama ammo
6. Picking Palin

[JAG]

Just gonna do a lil WOOOOOP, before my hopes can get dashed.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Gah, any spots for updated results?

Also; voter intimidation in Philadelphia by a Black Panther guy with a nightstick (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neGbKHyGuHU&eurl=http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/). Good grief.

Luckily the police came and escorted the guy with the nightstick away. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCeD1RcJjAg&eurl=http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/)

CR

[Thermal]

OBAMA!

though i really dont have a clue, the UK has had such hype on the american elections, when it isnt even anything to do with us, its makes headlines day in and out, shows the obssession with the U.S, theres even american programs about the politics there starting, im sure non of you americans went go gordan brown when tony blair was kicked from downing street, thats if you even no who they are, the first being a fool, the latter being a liar, the UK is ran by a group of pigs and dumbasses

[spmetla]

Wow! Those poll lines look long. Makes me proud to be participating in the election, though I did it with the far more convenient absentee ballot.

Sadly I didn't participate in the last two elections though I could have, feel real shame for it too.

I'll just be happy for the campaigning to be over. Way to too many months I've been hearing about these guys.

[Thermal]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/
haha just look here .co.uk you notice and the headline is....:laugh4:

[Divinus Arma]

Black Panthers are intimidating voters in Philadelphia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neGbKHyGuHU

Whoops. Someone beat me to it.

[Hooahguy]

man, they sure want him to win.....
wonder what will happen if obama doenst win....
*looks back at the race riots in the 60's*

[Lemur]

Crazed Rabbit, DA, Drudge has posted more stories since that one. I expect you to copy and paste in a timely manner, friends.

[Hooahguy]

Toledo police brace for possible riots (http://www.wnwo.com/news/news_story.aspx?id=216464)

EDIT: GOP election board members thrown out of polling sites in philly (http://townhall.com/blog/g/cf47766b-5a6d-44ab-95e7-ce60631bcadc)

[CountArach]

First off - thanks for the kind words guys, I'm just very passionate about this election :bow:

Yes good op, love reading the various polls and stuff, so CA which of your potential results do you think most likely ?
My tip is that Obama will win IA, CO, NM, NV, VA, FL and OH. So it would look like this:
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r44/CountArach/Likelyresults.jpg

If we keep giving CA all of this love he's going to be unlivable. Please, stop appreciating and thanking and being civil. CountArch, I hear, um, your model is off by seven points! Yeah, you heard me! You been served!
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

*Faints*

Do you have any stats about the oregon senate race?
Smith (R) was winning for most of the year, but the race has broken in Merkley's favour and he is now winning about 47-42. FiveThirtyEight has the race with 92% chance of Merkley winning.

Gah, any spots for updated results?
Here at CNN (http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/).

In other news: Ten reasons to ignore exit polls (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html)

[Crazed Rabbit]

Crazed Rabbit, DA, Drudge has posted more stories since that one. I expect you to copy and paste in a timely manner, friends.

I didn't get it from Drudge. Try to keep up.

Anyway, here's an article from an anti-NRA, anti-free market capitalism author about how Obama's coal hating will hurt the poor (http://www.ornery.org/essays/warwatch/2008-11-02-1.html):

Obama isn't cutting taxes for the poor, because they don't pay any.

Instead, he's planning to make it so expensive to generate electricity that only the rich can afford to use their appliances whenever they want.

Why? It's all in the name of Obama's True Belief in Global Warming. He says it himself -- he'll take coal off the table as an "ideological matter." Even if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, he's opposed to pursuing it.

He wants to put a huge penalty on companies that emit carbon -- which means that starting up new coal-powered electrical plants will be prohibitively expensive. In Obama's own words, "It will bankrupt them."

"Cap and trade" plans have already been tried, and they don't work -- they cost too much, and people find ways to get around them. But Obama promises us that he'll take that failed idea and be "as aggressive, if not more aggressive, than anybody else's" plan.

In other words, if it doesn't work, let's do more of it!

This is Obama the New Puritan. We've found his real religion: Political and Environmental Correctness.

CR

[Lemur]

Toledo police brace for possible riots (http://www.wnwo.com/news/news_story.aspx?id=216464)

EDIT: GOP election board members thrown out of polling sites in philly (http://townhall.com/blog/g/cf47766b-5a6d-44ab-95e7-ce60631bcadc)
I'm glad at least one of our Drudge readers can do this in a timely manner, as requested.

CR, only two places carried that story earlier today, Fox and Drudge. So which is your source?


Anyway, here's an article from an anti-NRA, anti-free market capitalism author about how Obama's coal hating will hurt the poor (http://www.ornery.org/essays/warwatch/2008-11-02-1.html):
You don't really know who OSC (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orson_scott_card) is, do you? And why are you still posting slam pieces when by this time the majority of Orgahs will have already voted? The election is ending, and you're still grinding on.

[CountArach]

Toledo police brace for possible riots (http://www.wnwo.com/news/news_story.aspx?id=216464)
Of course they are prepared for civil unrest... why wouldn't they be? I don't see how that is relevant.

[Hooahguy]

nah, im not a drudge reader- i just went there b/c you sparked my interest....
:laugh4:

[Crazed Rabbit]

Lemur - I found it on a blog that linked to that election journal site.
And my description of OSC is completely accurate - from your link:

Card identifies himself as a Democrat because he is pro-gun control/anti-National Rifle Association, highly critical of free-market capitalism, and because he believes that the Republican party in the South continues to tolerate racism. Card encapsulated his views thus:[12]
“ Maybe the Democrats will even accept the idea that sometimes the people don't want to create your utopian vision (especially when your track record is disastrous and your "utopias" keep looking like hell)... The Democratic Party ought to be standing as the bulwark of the little guy against big money and rapacious free-market capitalism, here and abroad. After all, the Republicans seem to be dominated by their own group of insane utopians—when they're not making huggy-huggy with all those leftover racists from the segregationist past.

Was it misleading? Maybe. :beam:

Anyways, Palin was cleared of ethics violations by the state personnel board:
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081104/D9480AK83.html

Report clears Palin in Alaska's Troopergate probe

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) - This time, Gov. Sarah Palin can claim vindication against allegations that she abused her power in office by firing her public safety commissioner.

Palin - running mate of Republican presidential candidate John McCain - violated no ethics laws, according to a report released by the state personnel board on the eve of Election Day. An earlier, separate investigation by the Legislature found that Palin had abused her office.

"There is no probable cause to believe that the governor, or any other state official, violated the Alaska Executive Ethics Act in connection with these matters," the personnel board's report said.

CR

[Hooahguy]

A blog that linked to that election journal site.

Anyways, Palin was cleared of ethics violations by the state personnel board:
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081104/D9480AK83.html


CR
too bad that came out too late...

EDIT: seems as if i just contradicted myself: earlier i said i wouldnt visit these forums..... ah well....
:laugh4: :wall:

[Gregoshi]

...the UK is ran by a group of pigs and dumbasses
You got pigs, we got elephants, otherwise little difference. ~D

[CountArach]

What TV stations are everyone watching? I have the choice between CNN and Faux...

[Hooahguy]

to quote Winston Churchill:
"i like pigs. dogs look up to us, cats look down on us. pigs treat us as equals."

[Hooahguy]

What TV stations are everyone watching? I have the choice between CNN and Faux...
dont own a tv.....
:beam:

[Lemur]

I'm avoiding the media until later tonight. The last thing I need to see is a bunch of talking heads and their lame "experts" bloviating on the unknowable in order to fill air time.

I say boycott the media until tonight.

[Gregoshi]

I'm with Lemur. I probably won't tune in until 8pm. I'll probably go with CNN for my election coverage.

[LittleGrizzly]

Anyway, here's an article from an anti-NRA, anti-free market capitalism

You missed out McCain supporter, he's also a member of the global warming is a lie religion, hardly an unbiased source..

Real intellectuals are skeptical and look for evidence before they embrace an idea; global warming, like the rest of the dogmas of the extreme Left, are believed without proof, by faith alone

For the New Puritans, Global Warming is the vengeful god that must be placated. Our economy is the sacrifice to that deity. In the name of Global Warming, we must destroy our quality of life -- and, like sales tax, it will hurt the poorest people first and most.

He does seem above the partisan bickering of most... but anyway it should be obvious to anyone reading the article that he is every bit the rabid partisan attack dog, that rush or the other guy are.... onto the actual claims of the article (the bits inbetween all the attacks)

Instead, he's planning to make it so expensive to generate electricity that only the rich can afford to use their appliances whenever they want.

So is this a stated policy position, i think not, many poor britons have still managed to have electricity and we are probably infront of america in our weaning off fossil fuels, so 1 claim 1 lie so far....

• Enact a Windfall Profits Tax to Provide a $1,000 Emergency Energy Rebate to American Families

One of obama's stated positions... poor americans everywhere will have a grands worth of energy...

He says it himself -- he'll take coal off the table as an "ideological matter." Even if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, he's opposed to pursuing it.

From barackobama.com, does this guy just make stuff up off the top of his head or is there a place where mccain supporters collect all these lies... im not even going to bother with the rest of the article, the fact that someone like me can debunk the crap he wrote so easily means he really isn't worth reading..


• Develop and Deploy Clean Coal Technology. Carbon capture and storage technologies hold
enormous potential to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions as we power our economy with
domestically produced and secure energy. As a U.S. Senator, Obama has worked tirelessly to
ensure that clean coal technology becomes commercialized. An Obama administration will
provide incentives to accelerate private sector investment in commercial scale zero‐carbon coal
facilities. In order to maximize the speed with which we advance this critical technology, Barack
Obama and Joe Biden will instruct DOE to enter into public private partnerships to develop 5
“irst‐of‐a‐kind”commercial scale coal‐fired plants with carbon capture and sequestration.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

How do absentee ballots work in the USA? I don't believe that there are any electors representing voters living abroad, so do they just tally your vote in the state you were born in? Lived in last?

[CountArach]

How do absentee ballots work in the USA? I don't believe that there are any electors representing voters living abroad, so do they just tally your vote in the state you were born in? Lived in last?
From the people I have talked to it is all about where you last were registered to vote.

[CountArach]

A useful tool I just found. This map on Pollster.com (http://www.pollster.com/) will update each time a news network calls the race for a candidate.

[Martok]

Voting was incredibly painless for me. Even with registering on-site, I was still done inside a half-hour. I live in a more typically suburban area, however, so I probably beat the rush.


I'm not even considering turning on the TV until later this evening. Doing so anytime before 7-8:00 would be a waste of time.

[LittleGrizzly]

What time should i start watching the news ?

Basically i want there to be a rough idea before i start watching... rather than time filling... time in GMT please...

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

In GMT? Midnight maybe. I know I'm staying up all night to watch the results come in.

[CountArach]

What time should i start watching the news ?

Basically i want there to be a rough idea before i start watching... rather than time filling... time in GMT please...
Indiana polls close in an hour and a half, and then the other states start coming in an hour or so after that.

EDIT: here you go LG:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/3381310/US-Election-2008-Key-times.html

[Gregoshi]

How do absentee ballots work in the USA? I don't believe that there are any electors representing voters living abroad, so do they just tally your vote in the state you were born in? Lived in last?
EMFM, you get a ballot for the location where you are registered to vote, so you vote for the same national, state and local races as if you were at home and going to your polling place. That's how I voted when I was away at uni as I was registered at home, not at uni.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Gah! Why oh why do the Americans have elections in the middle of the night? Can't they just organise them during the day like us civilised Europeans!? Now I'll have to go to bed later without knowing the result.

Oh well. I think I'll get up half an hour earlier tomorrow morning to catch up on the results over breakfast.



Also; voter intimidation in Philadelphia by a Black Panther guy with a nightstick (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neGbKHyGuHU&eurl=http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/). Good grief.That is simply outrageous. What on earth is he thinking!?

Let's look on it from the upside. Whatever the outcome, this election has shown that it is possible for a Black man of ambition and intellect to become anything, including president.

Some Blacks may think that Obama is finally going to solve their rent problems. Or, as in the case of this man, at last make him king of the hood. On the contrary. I think our nightstick wielding brownshirt will soon discover that Obama just blew away his excuses.
Obama is not his saviour. Obama is a scathing indictimtment to him. Obama is the floodlight that lightens up that big 'I am an imbecile' sign on this punk's forehead. Some Black men make it to president. Others can't find it in themselves to get a job or go to college and would rather waste their lives intimimidating others on the streets. Fine. Obama shows, that this is a matter of personal choice and merit, not a matter of circumstance.

I think we may see a paradigm shift in race rethoric in America after today. And indeed elsewehere. Even after seemingly having gotten used to it over the last year, (If elected) a Black man as the most powerful man on the planet is an earthquake. It will send shockwaves through how we conceive of society, of America, and of race relations. Whether as a positively as a rolemodel, or negatively as an indictment, the discourse of excuses will change to one of less tolerance of excuses.

[Lemur]

Wow, some people get started early. Normally you'd wait until an election had been ratified before demanding: Impeach Barack Obama (http://www.obamaimpeachment.org/).

[Hooahguy]

Wow, some people get started early. Normally you'd wait until an election had been ratified before demanding: Impeach Barack Obama (http://www.obamaimpeachment.org/).
wow........
*shakes head*

[Xiahou]

Here's some fun stuff from Phildadelphia (http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/cityhall/New_Black_Panther_Party_Guarding_Fairmount_Ave_Polling_Place.html). Two men dressed in Black Panther uniforms appointed themselves as "guards" of a polling place- one of them was brandishing a nightstick.

Here's (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rso0OfonzZ8) some coverage on FNC where they interview the poll watcher who called the police and had the armed man removed- his compatriot was allowed to remain.

-The first link is a cell phone video of the two men, the second is an interview with a GOP poll watcher who recounts what he saw/heard.

So... what were they thinking? :dizzy2:

[CountArach]

Lemur's disease Xiahou. CR beat you to it.

[Xiahou]

Lemur's disease Xiahou. CR beat you to it.

Ah, I found (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2054617&postcount=33) it. Way to stay on the breaking news CR- found out about it hours before I. :bow:

[Devastatin Dave]

Looks like Obama's implementing his "civilian defense force" early. Looks like our American elections will be resembling African ones. Change....

[CountArach]

Looks like Obama's implementing his "civilian defense force" early. Looks like our American elections will be resembling African ones. Change....
Do you have any evidence that Obama or the Obama campaign is tied to these incidents?

[LittleGrizzly]

Looks like Obama's implementing his "civilian defense force" early. Looks like our American elections will be resembling African ones. Change....

ohh come of it dave, Obama's looking good for the win why the hell would he do something like this ?

Edit: thanks for the times CA, 1am or 2am looks like a good time to call it a night, i would love to stay up all night and watch the elections but unfortunatly i have university tomorrow.... depending on my level of excitement i may very well stay up.... BBC starts coverage at 11.45, ill probably start watching from then...

[seireikhaan]

I voted early about a week ago at our Student Union. Tuesday's are busy class-wise for me. Got a 3 hour econ class tonight from 5:30 to 8:30 or so, so I probably won't be watching any news until the 9:00 Stewart/Colbert mega-bash. :mellow:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

-- quotation on black panther intimidation thingee --

That is simply outrageous. What on earth is he thinking!?


Some days I am prouder of my country than others. Today I am quite proud. My candidate of choice (well, the one I was left with) is likely to go down in defeat. This happens to a big chunk of us yanks every 4 years. So how do we react?

The major "problems" receiving national media attention are one idiot at a Philadelphia polling place, long lines because there are so many people desirous of voting, and wet ballots not running through the optical scanners in VA or NC.

Think about that folks, and compare those "problems" to many of the elections you read about. Could it run this smoothly in Haiti? How many elections can you think of wherein a REAL decision was being made in a relatively close race where there were fewer problems?

On January 20th, many of us will compound this by watching a rather imperial president calmly watch himself shrived of authority and look on as his successor takes that power from him. He will congratulate his successor, and fade into history (for good or for ill). And then, in the weeks following, most of us who were disappointed in the results of this contest will treat tonight's winner with honor and respect and genuinely hope that his efforts yield success for us all.

There are times I am exceedingly proud of my country.

[JAG]

Looks like Obama's implementing his "civilian defense force" early. Looks like our American elections will be resembling African ones. Change....

Oh my Dave, I hope your not being serious. :oops::help:

[CountArach]

Counting has started in Kentucky. McCain is up about 60% to 38%, but very early days there (Obama can't win it realistically anyway).

[LittleGrizzly]

McCain is up about 60% to 38%

On what bush had or on what the polls thought he would have ?

Is there any reasons Kentucky would be different from other states or could this be showing a late swing towards mccain ?

Edit: your my expert for the next 20 minutes until BBC coverage starts.. :wink:

[CountArach]

On what bush had or on what the polls thought he would have ?
I mean he is leading 60-38.

Is there any reasons Kentucky would be different from other states or could this be showing a late swing towards mccain ?
Nah, way too early to tell.

[Lemur]

Counting has started in Kentucky.
[Lemur sticks fingers in ears and yells "La la la la la I can't hear you"]

[Lemur will continue in this manner until much later in the evening]

[CountArach]

[Lemur sticks fingers in ears and yells "La la la la la I can't hear you"]

[Lemur will continue in this manner until much later in the evening]
Haha, fine I won't talk about the preliminary results in Indiana.

[Hosakawa Tito]

I voted after work this afternoon about 5 pm. I was #306 in a small rural district and only had 2 people in front of me. I didn't realize one could take their under voting age children into the booth with you to show them 'democracy in action' or I would have stopped at home and picked up junior first. We're still using old lever machines circa 1953:
https://img.photobucket.com/albums/v517/hoppy84/votemachine.jpg

[Devastatin Dave]

Do you have any evidence that Obama or the Obama campaign is tied to these incidents?

Are you kidding?

[CountArach]

Are you kidding?
No?

[JAG]

Edit: your my expert for the next 20 minutes until BBC coverage starts.. :wink:

go to www.msnbc.com and watch their coverage - much better than the BBC to be honest - as you dont have to hear about the 'American system' and the stupid talk for ignorant Brits - if you know about the US system and even just a lil bit about the political situation - much better analysis.

[LittleGrizzly]

I mean he is leading 60-38.

how does this compare to previous elections and polls ?

same questions on indiana

come on expert! talk!

Are you kidding?

Nope dave im sure he's not, explain why the candidate who appears to be in the lead would do something as idiotic as sending out people to intimidate voters, so show us your secret source.... or do you just 'know' that obama did this... ?

go to www.msnbc.com and watch their coverage - much better than the BBC to be honest - as you dont have to hear about the 'American system' and the stupid talk for ignorant Brits - if you know about the US system and even just a lil bit about the political situation - much better analysis.

ohh thanks, yes im probably better informed than average brit on american politics, ill probably watch them both (turning my head depending on how intresting they are)

BBC coverage is decent enough so far though...

[Lemur]

LittleGrizzly, it is way too early to say anything meaningful about the election results. Everybody needs to take a chill pill.

Except DevDave. Dave, the most logical thing to do right now is to plunge into a full-fledged racial panic. I heard a rumor on a website that referred to a coot who read something in his tea leaves, and this is what I heard: Black men re coming to bully you at your job and sexually violate your women. They are approaching your house as you read this. If Obama wins they will run riot and take all the good jobs away from people with advanced degrees.

I hear a lot of machetes were shipped to your neighborhood ...

[Devastatin Dave]

No?

Ok, maybe I made a mistatement. I should have said these guys are working on their resume in order to join Obama's civilian defense force.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt2yGzHfy7s
And you guys thought Bush was the Nazi!!! He's gonna make the Congo look like Club Med in a couple of years. But please, continue enjoying this historic occassion. I guess I'm just happy he's going to win tonight, less rioting and looting and all.

[JAG]

I mean he is leading 60-38.

how does this compare to previous elections and polls ?

same questions on indiana

come on expert! talk!

Griz that was after 20,000 votes TOTAL out of the whole State of... a fair few millions.

At the moment it is 50/50... but far too early and info not from the important counties yet.

[CountArach]

I mean he is leading 60-38.

how does this compare to previous elections and polls ?

same questions on indiana

come on expert! talk!
Bush won Kentucky with 60% of the vote in 2004 and 56% in 2000. Clinton won Kentucky with mid-40% of hte vote in both of his elections. However, Kentucky is a state where Obama is likely to have a lot of racial problems and as such it is unlikely he could ever have won it.

Indiana is currently just about a 50-50 tie. The Republicans won it in all 4 of the last elections quite comfortably. If Obama wins Indiana he will be slightly out-performing the polls, which had the race at about McCain by 2 points.

[Caius]

I'm certain that this t-shirt will be worn for more than one. (http://www.betterthanpants.com/1-20-09-end-of-an-error.html)

[CountArach]

Kentucky called for McCain and Vermont for Obama.

[JAG]

Obama wins Vermont, McCain wins Kentucky.

[CountArach]

Obama wins Vermont, McCain wins Kentucky.
Way ahead of you :tongue:

[PanzerJaeger]

One possible silver lining for those of us tired of living in wacky world of political correctness...

When President B. Hussein Obama is elected, will we finally stop having to hear about the black struggle?

Every American has been inundated with that singular obsession through the school system, the media, and pop culture for decades. Has the promise land been reached? Do the rest of us have to keep hearing about it?

Hopefully this election will deflate the likes of Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. I think it's high time that the mexicans got their shot at telling the world how the WASPs have kept them down and how they deserve handouts. Its only fair. Sorry Asians, you've been far to successful for that sort of tomfoolery...

[Devastatin Dave]

Remember the egg upon many a face during the 2004 exit polling. I wouldn't start slaughtering the bull for Obama just yet.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

My hope is that McCain will win. But if he loses, I want him to be completely, totally, and utterly crushed. Maybe it will force the Republicans to reform a little bit.

[Caius]

I'd suspect if McCain can win... I mean, he can win, but I'm not sure that will happen.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

McCain is pulling ahead in Indiana.

[JAG]

Way ahead of you :tongue:

:D

You know what is great my American Conservative friends? I remember vividly on these boards CR stating after 2004 how brilliant it was that every branch of govt was Republican and how thigns were changing into a new dawn of Conservative thinking. Well... ahhaahahahahahaha.

The early house calls are giving the Dems a 90+ seat majority!!! The Senate is going to be 57/60 to 43/40... And the President race looks, well I called it a week ago ;) Next the Supreme Court.. ;p

As an onlooker who likes America deeply, it makes me feel happy!

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

And Obama pulled ahead slightly in Indiana...this is going to be a close one.

[Ice]

:D

You know what is great my American Conservative friends? I remember vividly on these boards CR stating after 2004 how brilliant it was that every branch of govt was Republican and how thigns were changing into a new dawn of Conservative thinking. Well... ahhaahahahahahaha.

The early house calls are giving the Dems a 90+ seat majority!!! The Senate is going to be 57/60 to 43/40... And the President race looks, well I called it a week ago ;) Next the Supreme Court.. ;p

As an onlooker who likes America deeply, it makes me feel happy!

If it makes you happy, it makes me sad.

I'm not sure how putting the dems in complete control of Congress is a good idea. The idea seemed to work real well with the Republicans.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Anyone else watching CNN thinking about Star Wars right about now?

[Strike For The South]

One possible silver lining for those of us tired of living in wacky world of political correctness...

When President B. Hussein Obama is elected, will we finally stop having to hear about the black struggle?

Every American has been inundated with that singular obsession through the school system, the media, and pop culture for decades. Has the promise land been reached? Do the rest of us have to keep hearing about it?

Hopefully this election will deflate the likes of Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. I think it's high time that the mexicans got their shot at telling the world how the WASPs have kept them down and how they deserve handouts. Its only fair. Sorry Asians, you've been far to successful for that sort of tomfoolery...

No we wont but that is a forgone conclusion anyway. I wonder if in 50 years they will be able to keep this up after the hispanics have passed them and they are the ones doing the "oppressing" It is rather sad that we allow a whole race to be kept down simply for power politics.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

What are your predictions for Virginia? With just a few polls in, CNN has McCain at an 11% lead. I don't think that will hold up, but I think the victory will be narrow either way.

[CountArach]

Remember that the results we have from Indiana at this point do not take into account the vote from most of the urban areas, which are Democratic.

@ EMFM - I think Obama by about 5 in Virginia, maybe more.

[Devastatin Dave]

:D

You know what is great my American Conservative friends? I remember vividly on these boards CR stating after 2004 how brilliant it was that every branch of govt was Republican and how thigns were changing into a new dawn of Conservative thinking. Well... ahhaahahahahahaha.

The early house calls are giving the Dems a 90+ seat majority!!! The Senate is going to be 57/60 to 43/40... And the President race looks, well I called it a week ago ;) Next the Supreme Court.. ;p

As an onlooker who likes America deeply, it makes me feel happy!

Good, then they have a chance to ---- it up like we did.:laugh4:

[JAG]

I reckon Obama wins Indiana by 2 and Virginia by 4.

[JAG]

Good, then they have a chance to --- it up like we did.:laugh4:

True! Let us hope they don't eh, coz it can't get too worse eh? ;)

[LittleGrizzly]

You know what is great my American Conservative friends? I remember vividly on these boards CR stating after 2004 how brilliant it was that every branch of govt was Republican and how thigns were changing into a new dawn of Conservative thinking.

Painful memory's are coming flooding back...

But this is a new dawn, democrats control all three powers, years of republican damage can be undone, foriegn relations can be mended, negoations can take place with foriegn powers instead of useless strongman posturing...

This could be all a bit of a posioned chalice... economy in a state and all the houses in democrat control... on the other hand i think after 8 years of bush how could it get much worse... all the powers under one party isn't a great thing but under obama i believe it will be ok...

[CountArach]

Alright we've started to get results from Indianapolis, which could well determine if Obama wins Indiana.

[PanzerJaeger]

McCain is surging 8 - 3 in electoral votes..!!!1

[CountArach]

McCain is surging 8 - 3 in electoral votes..!!!1
Give him the Presidency now!!!!1one!!!eleventyone!11!

[LittleGrizzly]

LOL!!!

i was tempted to say something similar

[PanzerJaeger]

Give him the Presidency now!!!!1one!!!eleventyone!11!

I'm ready to call it... Kentucky has long been a bell weather, or at least that's what I've deluded myself into believing until more states are called. ~;)

[Devastatin Dave]

Alright we've started to get results from Indianapolis, which could well determine if Obama wins Indiana.

Have they counted the dead folks yet?

[CountArach]

I'm ready to call it... Kentucky has long been a bell weather, or at least that's what I've deluded myself into believing until more states are called. ~;)
You could be a pundit :tongue:

Have they counted the dead folks yet?
Most of the dead people voted early and as such their counting occurs later.

[LittleGrizzly]

I feel sorry for McCain, im starting to buy into seamus theory about him (it was seamus right ?) i just wish he had won the nomination back in 2000, things would have been so much better...

Carolina (south i think) called for McCain

16-3

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Nevermind.

[CountArach]

I feel sorry for McCain, im starting to buy into seamus theory about him (it was seamus right ?) i just wish he had won the nomination back in 2000, things would have been so much better...

Carolina (south i think) called for McCain
Yeah the McCain of 2000 at least was still a moderate. The new one is running far too conservatively.

No surprise about South Carolina. North Carolina will be the one to watch.

[LittleGrizzly]

Pennsylvania goes obama or predicted obama, im not sure what they mean... new hampshire as well!

McCain 16 - 28 Obama!!

Edit: this whole sleeping thing seems to have gone out the window...

DC and Illinois go obama!!

16 - 52

And Delaware! and Massachusetes and maryland!

i missed what 11 McCain got...

27 - 77

Conneticut!

27 - 84

[Banquo's Ghost]

Pennsylvania and New Hampshire for Obama. Big blow for McCain.

[JAG]

Game over man. No way for Mc Cain to win now, I just can't see it, nor should any other sane person.

WOOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TinCow]

IIRC, the odds of McCain winning without Pennsylvania are essentially nil, though I hate these calls of a state when they're at 0% returns. That just means they're based on exit polling, and we all know how reliable that is.

[CountArach]

Pennsylvania and New Hampshire for Obama. Big blow for McCain.
Who called that? CNN refuses to until they get some votes in.

As for McCain's chances without PA, read the first post :wink:

[LittleGrizzly]

Who called that?

The BBC for one... and MSNBC for another..

[TinCow]

MSNBC called them both at 0%, along with a slew other other ones at the same time.

[CountArach]

Thanks.

Obama looking good in Florida now - winning some of the swing counties and overperforming Kerry everywhere.

[JAG]

MSNBC wouldn't call it unless it is safe. And to be fair not as if the polls were not showing Obama up big...

[LittleGrizzly]

I figured they were alot more reliable because they really don't want to repeat 2000....

Has anyone else noticed its mainly non americans here getting excited... the americans busy voting ?

[CountArach]

I figured they were alot more reliable because they really don't want to repeat 2000....
I think that is what CNN thinks as well.

McCain needs to hope for route 1 now:
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r44/CountArach/Pic4-McCainwin1.jpg

[LittleGrizzly]

is route 1 basically holding all bush's states ?

Sounds good for obama in florida.... ahead so far...

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

I think that is what CNN thinks as well.

They certainly haven't been calling any controversial things. What has been called so far is essentially what has been predicted all along.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Senator Dole appears to have lost her seat.

[CountArach]

is route 1 basically holding all bush's states ?

Sounds good for obama in florida.... ahead so far...
He can only afford to lose New Mexico and Iowa from here. Other than that it has to be all the Bush states.

[LittleGrizzly]

I think i understand the presidential race is going... but what about the houses... how close is the filibuster proof majority looking ?

What gains have been made in the houses so far ? and what is predicted ?

[Koga No Goshi]

I figured they were alot more reliable because they really don't want to repeat 2000....

Has anyone else noticed its mainly non americans here getting excited... the americans busy voting ?

It's because, in my opinion, the Americans are a nervous wreck. Trust me, as a Democrat, we've been down the "oh there's no way the public could possibly vote that way again/ there's no way the election leads could suddenly flip on us again" road. We're being superstitiously cautious.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Dang it. I can't go to bed without knowing what's going to happen.


I think that is what CNN thinks as well.

McCain needs to hope for route 1 now:
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r44/CountArach/Pic4-McCainwin1.jpgNo route 1 either. MSNBC: Exit polls in Indiana and Virginia positive for Obama.

Edit: which seems unlikely. CNN has McCain leading.
Edit2: And Obama leading in Texas. :tongue:

[JAG]

I think i understand the presidential race is going... but what about the houses... how close is the filibuster proof majority looking ?

What gains have been made in the houses so far ? and what is predicted ?

The Dems have picked up a couple in the Senate but they lost one of their races they were after in Maine, so I dunno if they are gonna get 60, but they will have a nice, healthy margin there.

[LittleGrizzly]

Im probably alot more realistic this time, i just didn't see how bush could win in 2004, but it happened, this time im more cautiously optimistic... though the optimism is rising quickly...

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

No route 1 either. MSNBC: Exit polls in Indiana and Virginia positive for Obama.

Current CNN tallies disagree. They're showing fairly large leads for McCain based on tabulated vote so far.

[Koga No Goshi]

The Dems have picked up a couple in the Senate but they lost one of their races they were after in Maine, so I dunno if they are gonna get 60, but they will have a nice, healthy margin there.

The "60 DEM SENATORS!" thing that has been screeched about was always a fantasy scenario. Five-thirty-eight calculated it as a 50% chance of 58, a 45% chance of 59, but only a 17% chance of taking 60.


Im probably alot more realistic this time, i just didn't see how bush could win in 2004, but it happened, this time im more cautiously optimistic... though the optimism is rising quickly...


Yup. 2004 was total floored shock for a lot of us.

[PBI]

Dang it. I can't go to bed without knowing what's going to happen.


I'm in the same boat. I always forget just how compelling election night is.

Ah well, my boss is a lefty, if Obama wins he'll be too happy to care if I'm late to work. ~;)

Oh, Grizzly, I think the 11 points for McCain was Tennessee.

[CountArach]

Current CNN tallies disagree. They're showing fairly large leads for McCain based on tabulated vote so far.
Virginia is starting to worry me, but the North-East of the State (Washington DC suburbs) and the South-East (Large African American population) have barely started to be counted yet, so there is still a lot of chance.

The North-West of Indiana (Near Chicago) is tightening Indiana.

As for 60 Senators, I think it will end up 58 including both Independents, but after 2010 there is a very good chance of the Democrats having the 60.

[Koga No Goshi]

Yeah it's really a mistake to assume that with 1 or 5% in you have a written in stone representation of the rest of the state's tally. In a lot of states nearly all of the blue are just around a couple of the larger cities, on a political map-- where frequently the lines are longer and counting is slower.

[Incongruous]

Wow, CNN is being, REALLY, REALLY conservative, where are the screaming heads?

But they have so far predicted a massive lead for Obama in electorals.

[LittleGrizzly]

Oh, Grizzly, I think the 11 points for McCain was Tennessee.

yes that was the one!

I'm in the same boat. I always forget just how compelling election night is.

I think my bedtime is going to keep getting pushed back... originally its was 1am now its been pushed back to 2am and im seriously considering an extension.... hell why not.. how often does such a big event like this happen ? (and seems to be going the way i want!)

[Louis VI the Fat]

.. how often does such a big event like this happen ? About every four years, sheesh, read up will ya. :book:

j/k.



Yeah it's really a mistake to assume that with 1 or 5% in you have a written in stone representation of the rest of the state's tally. In a lot of states nearly all of the blue are just around a couple of the larger cities, on a political map-- where frequently the lines are longer and counting is slower.
Obama still leading in Texas on CNN. :tongue:

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Obama still leading in Texas on CNN. :tongue:

Not anymore. ~;)

[LittleGrizzly]

About every four years, sheesh, read up will ya.

:tongue: by my rough calculations i will only witness 10-14 more of these...

Georgia and another called for mccain

103 - 49

Im hearing Palin went down badly in the suburbs, clinton voters went for obama 89 - 11, the woman vote didn't pick up for McCain...

Obama still leading in Texas on CNN.

Im calling Texas for Obama!!

Not anymore.

Gah! nice well it lasted...

[Ronin]

CNN calls Pennsylvania for Obama

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

CNN has popular vote barely for McCain right now.


CNN calls Pennsylvania for Obama

McCain has to win Pennsylvania or Florida. If he doesn't, he's probably finished.

[Koga No Goshi]

Hillary is calling New York.

P.S. None of the refreshable sources I've been looking at have shown McCain ahead in popular at all so far this evening. It's gotten very close, but I've never seen him ahead. Besides, as you stated EMFM, he has to take Florida or PA.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Florida is tightening up.

[LittleGrizzly]

Is CNN the last to call ?

Should we assume that thier call is right as they seem the most cautious of the networks...

Come on florida.... no states have flipped yet...

[Koga No Goshi]

I want Florida. And Ohio.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Is CNN the last to call ?

AP has been last to call most of the time, I think.


Should we assume that thier call is right as they seem the most cautious of the networks...

I'm going with them. I also have Pollster, ABC, and AP open in the background. I was on Fox News earlier, and they were calling more for Obama than CNN was.

[LittleGrizzly]

I want Florida. And Ohio.

I want a landslide!

I'm going with them. I also have Pollster, ABC, and AP open in the background. I was on Fox News earlier, and they were calling more for Obama than CNN was.

If thier being more cautious than fox in calling for obama then thats good enough for me...

[Caius]

Why does McCain have a deformated, photoshopped image in cnn.com site?

Im gone.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Fox, of all networks, has called Ohio for Obama. I think the fat lady is warming up.

[Lemur]

CNN is calling Wisconsin for Obama, with 0% reporting. How do they do that?

[Xiahou]

Fox, of all networks, has called Ohio for Obama. I think the fat lady is warming up.They rescinded that- it was an error apparently.

But really, unless projections are wrong, Obama has this sewn up.

[Xiahou]

CNN is calling Wisconsin for Obama, with 0% reporting. How do they do that?They match exit polls with the actual results from the polled precincts. If they are close enough- they call it. Even without any significant vote tallies. Sounds fishy to me, but there it is. :shrug:

[Pannonian]

The Grauniad has New York at 99% Obama, 1% McCain. Is this plausible?

[JAG]

Indiana at the moment is pretty much 50/50 with the Dem heartland county's not reported in serious numbers yet .. . Same with virginia. I think he is gonna get both. Florida looks similar and NC, blimey looking scary if you're a Rep. *starts singing*

[Lemur]

The Grauniad has New York at 99% Obama, 1% McCain. Is this plausible?
No, not plausible. Somebody is being silly.

Gah, I swore I wouldn't look at news until 8, and now I'm looking and there;s still way too much conjecture and "expert" opinion. I think maybe I need to tune out for another hour or two.

[LittleGrizzly]

The Grauniad has New York at 99% Obama, 1% McCain.

So only Gawain and Spino voted for McCain ? :wink:

blimey looking scary if you're a Rep. *starts singing*

I think new labour 97 election song is entirely appropriate here....

THINGS... Can only get better!.... Can only get better!

*continues singing*

[JAG]

The Grauniad has New York at 99% Obama, 1% McCain. Is this plausible?

That will be of the precincts already reported. Pretty much 0% prolly.

[Crazed Rabbit]

So is this a stated policy position, i think not, many poor britons have still managed to have electricity and we are probably infront of america in our weaning off fossil fuels, so 1 claim 1 lie so far....

• Enact a Windfall Profits Tax to Provide a $1,000 Emergency Energy Rebate to American Families

One of obama's stated positions... poor americans everywhere will have a grands worth of energy...

Wow. So he makes it a lot more expensive to have power, and then gives out even more money that that to cover the increased cost caused by the government's actions, with the net result of more people being dependent on the government.

And in these troubled times, let us not forget the wise words of Dave Barry, winner of the Pulitzer Prize:

Dave Barry: And the winner is . . . the man with the martini
BY DAVE BARRY

In analyzing the results of Tuesday's historic election, the question we must ask ourselves, first and foremost, is: what the heck were the results of Tuesday's historic election?

I personally don't know. The Miami Herald made me send in this analysis before the election was actually over, so that it could be printed in a timely manner. This is part of the newspaper industry's crafty plan to defeat this ''Internet'' thing that has the youngsters so excited.

Anyway, my election analysis, based on weeks of reading political bogs, listening to talk radio and watching campaign ads on television, is that one of the following things is true:

• Barack Obama is our next president, which is very bad because he is a naive untested wealth-spreading terrorist-befriending ultraliberal socialist communist who will suddenly reveal his secret Muslim identity by riding to his inauguration on a camel shouting ''Death to Israel!'' (I mean Obama will be shouting this, not the camel) after which he will wreck the economy by sending Joe the Plumber to Guantánamo and taxing away all the income of anybody who makes over $137.50 per year and giving it to bloated government agencies that will deliberately set it on fire.

• Or, John McCain is our next president, which is very bad because he is a 287-year-old out-of-touch multiple-house-owning fascist who will rape the environment and build nuclear power plants inside elementary schools and reinstate slavery and create tax loopholes that benefit only people who own three or more personal helicopters, after which he will declare war on the entire United Nations and then keel over dead and leave us with commander-in-chief Sarah ''Flash Card'' Palin.

• Or, Ralph Nader is our next president, which is very bad because it means there has been a successful Klingon invasion.

• Or, the outcome of the election is being disputed because of irregularities such as unregistered horses voting in Ohio, or some Florida county tabulating votes in Roman numerals, or God knows what else, which is very bad because it means the next president will be selected via a giant Lawyer-Palooza court fight that will go on until it's time to hold the Iowa caucuses for the NEXT presidential election.

So basically my analysis is that, whatever happened, we are, as a nation, doomed.

CR

[CountArach]

That will be of the precincts already reported. Pretty much 0% prolly.
Yep, there was probably just a small town that voted for Obama heavily.

[naut]

Anyone else watching CNN thinking about Star Wars right about now?
:laugh4: YES!

[Tribesman]

So only Gawain and Spino voted for McCain ?
Isn't there a law that if you fit into a certain category you cannot vote anymore which would mean Gawain can't vote .

[Don Corleone]

On the bright side, I'm now rich. And can be expected to be taxed as such.

On the minus side, well, I'll try to be a patriot and say I will support the new government as best as I can. I expect the worst.

[CountArach]

Virginia is going to flip any moment now.

[Pannonian]

That will be of the precincts already reported. Pretty much 0% prolly.
Makes sense, as even the Soviet Communist party struggled to get much above 90% in their elections. It's now at 74-25, which is a more realistic split than 99-1.

[JAG]

Virginia is going to flip any moment now.

:yes: Agreed. 0% of some county's in Dem heartland reported! I mean, if its nearly 50/50 without his base in Virginia...

[JAG]

Makes sense, as even the Soviet Communist party struggled to get much above 90% in their elections. It's now at 74-25, which is a more realistic split than 99-1.

I reckon the State will prolly end up 60/40 at the end of the day.

[Decker]

I wonder how many dead people will vote :vampire: :inquisitive:

[CountArach]

I reckon the State will prolly end up 60/40 at the end of the day.
Polling had it at 60-35 with 5 undecided prior to the election.

West Virginia called by CNN. No surprise.

[JAG]

Ohio for Obama!!! Game over man, game over.

[TinCow]

MSNBC just called Ohio for Obama. By my math, the election is over.

[seireikhaan]

Jag- what's with the sudden surge in interest for US politics? Here to support your glorious comrade? :jester:

[CountArach]

Election over. CNN gearing up for a "major projection" - I would guess Ohio.

Congratulations President Obama! Good choice America!

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

The Midwest is opening up, and Fox called Ohio for Obama - but CNN, ABC, CBS, and AP have yet to report. McCain just won West Virginia.

[LittleGrizzly]

Wow. So he makes it a lot more expensive to have power, and then gives out even more money that that to cover the increased cost caused by the government's actions,

Well despite tony blairs big commitment to fight global warming the only thing that increased our energy bills was the ill advised foriegn policy of bush and blair, so i don't see why obama's plans would work any differently...

Isn't there a law that if you fit into a certain category you cannot vote anymore which would mean Gawain can't vote .

im missing something, i wasn't around when gawain left, is it something to do with non tax payment ? or a felony ?

On the bright side, I'm now rich. And can be expected to be taxed as such.

your income has suddenly jumped to 250k, great news, even with the reverse of bush's tax cuts your going to be alot better off!

Ohio for obama!!
Celebrate good times!!

Jag- what's with the sudden surge in interest for US politics? Here to support your glorious comrade?

Jag's always had a huge interest in us politics... you should have been here during bush's re election, i think he's jus less intrested in actually debating issues nw...

[JAG]

Jag- what's with the sudden surge in interest for US politics? Here to support your glorious comrade? :jester:

I havent really posted here since you have been a member here - but those who know me form here know I have always had interest in US politics - I was as heartbroken in 04 as I am happy now. I always stay up to watch the US elections - Midterms as well as Presidential ones. After all I studied Politics at Uni and I am just a politics geek, it is fair to say! :p


President Obama!!!! Woot!

[King Jan III Sobieski]

I fear we're doomed!:sweatdrop::sweatdrop::sweatdrop:

[Don Corleone]

On the bright side, I'm now rich. And can be expected to be taxed as such.

your income has suddenly jumped to 250k, great news, even with the reverse of bush's tax cuts your going to be alot better off!

By last count, "rich" was household income of 90k. Mrs. Corleone and I cannot afford to pay at a 39% income tax rate and keep our house. Enjoy it, I'll be busy burning down black churches according to Louis.

[Devastatin Dave]

Election over. CNN gearing up for a "major projection" - I would guess Ohio.

Congratulations President Obama! Good choice America!

Congrats to Comrade Obama. Now the entire country gets to see what its like to live in Detroit or East St Louis. The world can now celebrate, your Messiah has risen.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Gah.

Well, there's still hope for Rossi, though that won't be settled tonight.

CR

[LittleGrizzly]

This makes up for the heartbreak of '04

Arizona is tied!

This is a new dawn for american politics! obama is rewriting the landscape like reegan did!

New Mexico also for Obama!

[Devastatin Dave]

I havent really posted here since you have been a member here - but those who know me form here know I have always had interest in US politics - I was as heartbroken in 04 as I am happy now. I always stay up to watch the US elections - Midterms as well as Presidential ones. After all I studied Politics at Uni and I am just a politics geek, it is fair to say! :p


President Obama!!!! Woot!

Little hint to my fellow Americans, if JAG's celebrating an American election, it ain't good for America. Good night everyone....

[CountArach]

This makes up for the heartbreak of '04

Arizona is tied!
No votes counted there :wink:

CNN CALLS OHIO!

[Don Corleone]

Like I've said before, if nothing else, this proves once and for all MONEY WINS ELECTIONS. McCain deserved to lose for following public funding guidelines after Obama broke his promise to follow them.

[Lord Winter]

This makes up for the heartbreak of '04

Arizona is tied!

This is a new dawn for american politics! obama is rewriting the landscape like reegan did!

New Mexico also for Obama!

Where are you getting your info? CNN shows McCain up by almost 20. Not that it matters since the urban centers aren't in, but its still a little early.

[CountArach]

Where are you getting your info? CNN shows McCain up by almost 20. Not that it matters since the urban centers aren't in, but its still a little early.
CNN shows Obama up by 13..

[JAG]

Little hint to my fellow Americans, if JAG's celebrating an American election, it ain't good for America. Good night everyone....

Man and I thought you liked me?! :D :balloon2:

It's not as if I am a socialist or anything!

[JAG]

It's not as if I am a socialist or anything!

Doh!






:2thumbsup:

[CountArach]

Tempted to sig... :tongue:

[GeneralHankerchief]

Well, in NJ Lautenberg crushed Zimmer. Looks like we'll have another 6 years of machine politics. I'm just bitter because Frankie screwed Rob Andrews over in the primaries... :furious3:

In other words, congrats to Barack Obama and let's hope he can deliver on his main themes.

[naut]

CNN shows Obama up by 13..
CNN, i.e. TV, says McCain - 69 and Obama - 194.

[LittleGrizzly]

By last count, "rich" was household income of 90k. Mrs. Corleone and I cannot afford to pay at a 39% income tax rate and keep our house.

I guess it's lucky Obama disagrees on your definition of rich, and that he doesn't want you to have a 39% rate

The world can now celebrate, your Messiah has risen.

Indeed, the republican scourge that has infected the world for the last 8 years is over, the terrible foriegn policy which drove people in droves to the arms of our enemys is over, britian will be a far safer place without a strongman posturing in the white house and costing british lives, there will still be terrorists but without bush to drive them in thier hundreds to AQ britian will be several orders of magnitue safer

for this reason alone Obama is practically like a messiah, it is only in comparison to the former occupant of the white house

[LeftEyeNine]

Like I've said before, if nothing else, this proves once and for all MONEY WINS ELECTIONS. McCain deserved to lose for following public funding guidelines after Obama broke his promise to follow them.

George W. Bush does not have the cleanest profile when it comes to that, does he ?

Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Devastatin Dave]

Man and I thought you liked me?! :D :balloon2:

It's not as if I am a socialist or anything!

I've always liked you, its your vision of the world that I don't approve of. But you still have an open inventation to stay at my house and go Civil War Battlefield touring.:2thumbsup:

[Crazed Rabbit]

This makes up for the heartbreak of '04

Arizona is tied!

This is a new dawn for american politics! obama is rewriting the landscape like reegan did!

New Mexico also for Obama!

Nope, it won't be a Reagan-esque victory (check out the electoral maps from '80 and '84 - it was a complete blowout).

Obama got elected by moving drastically to the right in terms of rhetoric, so I'd caution people who see this as America moving left or giving a mandate to liberalism.

CR

[CountArach]

CNN, i.e. TV, says McCain - 69 and Obama - 194.
I meant in Ohio specifically.

Obama got elected by moving drastically to the right in terms of rhetoric, so I'd caution people who see this as America moving left or giving a mandate to liberalism.
The excuses begin...

[Lord Winter]

CNN shows Obama up by 13..

Its a 15% now (website), not that it matters the cities should throw it to Obama.

[JAG]

I've always liked you, its your vision of the world that I don't approve of. But you still have an open inventation to stay at my house and go Civil War Battlefield touring.:2thumbsup:

Deal my friend, I still plan on doing that at some point in the not too distant future too! :)


Nope, it won't be a Reagan-esque victory (check out the electoral maps from '80 and '84 - it was a complete blowout).

Obama got elected by moving drastically to the right in terms of rhetoric, so I'd caution people who see this as America moving left or giving a mandate to liberalism.

I think you are wrong, really wrong and I think unless the GOP look at realistically why they have got their asses handed to them, they will continue to get battered like this. Remember in the Mid terms they got kicked and then again this year they are getting kicked - that simply doesn't happen over there in your great nation. People don't like the GOP at the moment.

[Koga No Goshi]

Man and I thought you liked me?! :D :balloon2:

It's not as if I am a socialist or anything!

I like you Jag. I remember you from WAY back.

Don't take comments from the angry cave-troll department too seriously. They've got a lot less to be blisteringly viciously upset about than progressives do. You'd think we'd just come out of 8 years of one of the most fantastically left-wing administrations in history, instead of the right-wing inverse.


Obama got elected by moving drastically to the right in terms of rhetoric, so I'd caution people who see this as America moving left or giving a mandate to liberalism.

God forbid.


People don't like the GOP at the moment.

Agreed, the GOP needs to abandon the southern strategy, character assasination, fear tactic politics. The response the GOP has garnered to faltering public support for Republican candidates has been "I guess we didn't get vicious enough in our personal attack ads, let's imply he's a pedophile this time" and it didn't work.

[seireikhaan]

Jag- I trust you've seen the map of Reagan vs Mondale? That was the very definition of a massacre. This already has proved to be far from that big of a win.

[TinCow]

The reaction of the conservative members is understandable. Us lefties did the same exact thing 4 years ago.

Obama now has 24 hours to celebrate. After that, he has to start living up to the faith the public have put in him. He had better put up an excellent and bipartisan cabinet.

[JAG]

Jag- I trust you've seen the map of Reagan vs Mondale? That was the very definition of a massacre. This already has proved to be far from that big of a win.

That was his re-election, but ya I get your point - his victory over Carter was similarily emphatic.

But still, I think there is a movement, which underpins this like that Reagan victory. I think it would be unwise for the GOP to think otherwise, or to think they simply were not Conservative enough or that the people will simply just come back to them. I say again, 06 the GOP got a beating and AGAIN tonight they are gettign a beating even WORSE. That never happens. But it is.

[Crazed Rabbit]

I meant in Ohio specifically.

The excuses begin...

Hey, its true.


I think you are wrong, really wrong
Like khaan said, this is a far, far cry from the reverse of 1984.


and I think unless the GOP look at realistically why they have got their asses handed to them, they will continue to get battered like this. Remember in the Mid terms they got kicked and then again this year they are getting kicked - that simply doesn't happen over there in your great nation. People don't like the GOP at the moment.

That is true, and this is a good article (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122541628923186751.html) on what the GOP has to do:

Republicans love to recollect Ronald Reagan, though they forget why. Reagan's strength was looking to the future -- and framing the issues of the day for Americans. When the focus had been balanced budgets, he made the issue the need for economic growth. When the debate had been détente, Reagan turned it into the need for a strong America. That tradition continued with the Contract with America, welfare reform, government reform, tort reform. George W. Bush tackled education.

Reagan's other great strength was not distinguishing between red and blue America. He offered a set of principles, and invited anyone who broadly subscribed to those principles into his political house. The result was that unlikely coalition of fiscal conservatives, defense hawks and social conservatives. These were the days of Reagan Democrats, of victories in states that now seem unwinnable to the GOP.

The further Republicans have moved away from this playbook, the further its fortunes have declined. The GOP was thrown out in 2006 because it had failed to evolve on the new issues facing Americans -- spiraling health-care costs, dwindling energy supplies, out-of-control entitlements. It spent its last years divvying up pork. As it has hit the electoral rocks, the party has also turned inward, harping on immigrants and gay marriage.

CR

[naut]

Jag- I trust you've seen the map of Reagan vs Mondale? That was the very definition of a massacre. This already has proved to be far from that big of a win.
Yeh, this is nowhere near that race IIRC 500 and something against 10. The closest to that that Dems have ever come would have to have been Clinton.

Edit: Actually I'm silly the best the Dems have done would be LB Johnson.

[CountArach]

Indiana is within 5000 votes with much of the north-west still to report.

[Koga No Goshi]

That was his re-election, but ya I get your point - his victory over Carter was similarily emphatic.

But still, I think there is a movement, which underpins this like that Reagan victory. I think it would be unwise for the GOP to think otherwise, or to think they simply were not Conservative enough or that the people will simply just come back to them. I say again, 06 the GOP got a beating and AGAIN tonight they are gettign a beating even WORSE. That never happens. But it is.

We've had this exact discussion in several thread titles now over the last few weeks but I think there's still a hefty level of denial in the air. On both the macro and individual level there still seems to be a preoccupation with attacking what's wrong with the Democratic party instead of asking what could be wrong with the Republican party to be causing this total collapse of support for their platforms.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Louisiana and Kansas called for McCain by CNN. Iowa called for Obama.

[Lemur]

Once again, I can't help but feel a bit sorry for McCain. He got ****** by Bush in 2000, and ****** by him again in 2008.

In truth, though, 2000 was McCain's year. If he had won the primary he would have won the general, and we would have had a much better President for the last eight years. But this was not his year.

Condolences to those who strongly supported McCain, and I humbly request that any and all calls for impeachment wait until the new President has served at least a week in office.

https://img.photobucket.com/albums/v489/Lemurmania/obamabestsignever.jpg

[JAG]

Cr - I think that article is compeltely right in terms of how Reagan did what he did - but much more than that he came at a time when people wanted de-regulation and lower taxes. Now the fundamentals of the political state are compeltely different - more - better - regulation and a degree of fairer, more taxes - the answer. Palin made Hilary voters turn TO Obama - the moderate, conservative leaning Dems got pushed away by Palin. Independents got pushed AWAY by Palin. That kind of Republican will not wash anymore with, that is what the GOP have to deal with.

[Koga No Goshi]

Condolences to those who strongly supported McCain, and I humbly request that any and all calls for impeachment wait until the new President has served at least a week in office.

I would feel sorrier for McCain if he hadn't hitched his wagon to the same people who character assasinated him. His re-embrace of almost all the scary fringes and the of the Republican base and the Bush ideological hardline further alienated him from the many Dems who used to like him quite a bit, myself included.


Cr - I think that article is compeltely right in terms of how Reagan did what he did - but much more than that he came at a time when people wanted de-regulation and lower taxes. Now the fundamentals of the political state are compeltely different - more - better - regulation and a degree of fairer, more taxes - the answer. Palin made Hilary voters turn TO Obama - the moderate, conservative leaning Dems got pushed away by Palin. Independents got pushed AWAY by Palin. That kind of Republican will not wash anymore with, that is what the GOP have to deal with.

I agree with this completely. The problem with the Republican party is a very simple one. They've played around too much with the bait of ideology and have become too dependant upon it in order to win or excite their base. Republican platform over the last 12 years or more has been repeatedly trying to shove the square peg into the round hole, over and over, thinking that the square peg is what made Reagan great or Republicans respected. It wasn't the square peg (be it deregulation, tax cuts, corporate pandering, a contempt for social services, a demonizing of the poorer 40-90% of Americans as just lazy and unworthy of compassion or assistance, a contempt for the international community) as much as having a square peg when the hole was square.

Campaigns have become a sad repetition over and over of "Square peg! Square peg!" with no one stopping to ask themselves if the holes of our time are square.

[JAG]

No Congressmen/women from New England for the Reps... I mean, that is crazy.

[CountArach]

No Congressmen/women from New England for the Reps... I mean, that is crazy.
Yeah, the Kos is going crazy:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/4/214639/829/688/653237

[JAG]

Yeah, the Kos is going crazy:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/4/214639/829/688/653237

No surprise there! haha

[JAG]

One great piece of news - the abortion proposals in South Dakota and Colorado have been obliterrated.... Brilliant. It further shows that it is possible attitutes are changing. I dunno, good none the less.

[CountArach]

One great piece of news - the abortion proposals in South Dakota and Colorado have been obliterrated.... Brilliant. It further shows that it is possible attitutes are changing. I dunno, good none the less.
The next test is if California will vote down the gay marriage ban.

[Koga No Goshi]

The next test is if California will vote down the gay marriage ban.

I've been checking the state website but apparently they aren't going to release anything until the polls are closed in 29 minutes.

[Xiahou]

No Congressmen/women from New England for the Reps... I mean, that is crazy.Susan Collins?

[CountArach]

Susan Collins?
He means House members.

@ Koga - they aren't allowed to.

[Koga No Goshi]

He means House members.

@ Koga - they aren't allowed to.

It would be nice to at least have preliminary exit polling info or anything. ;)

[JAG]

He means House members.


:bow:

Exactly.

[CountArach]

It would be nice to at least have preliminary exit polling info or anything. ;)
I don't think exit polling tests propositions, because far fewer people vote on them.

[Koga No Goshi]

I don't think exit polling tests propositions, because far fewer people vote on them.

Very well. Do you have a 21 minute sedative so I can wake up and see some numbers? :)

[CountArach]

Very well. Do you have a 21 minute sedative so I can wake up and see some numbers? :)
Coffee, or perhaps the Medicinal Marijuana Michigan just voted to legalise.

[Koga No Goshi]

Coffee, or perhaps the Medicinal Marijuana Michigan just voted to legalise.

Medical marijuana's been legal in CA for years, but it's really hard to get. Much harder to get than just going to someone who sells it illegally. ;) Plus you always stand the chance of being in a clinic and having a sudden Federal raid on it and getting assaulted. Not fun.

[Pannonian]

Graun now says that DC has a final result of 92-8 in favour of the Democrats. Is this plausible? I'm not familiar with the political landscape across the water, so I don't know whether these figures are realistic or not.

[CountArach]

Medical marijuana's been legal in CA for years, but it's really hard to get. Much harder to get than just going to someone who sells it illegally. ;) Plus you always stand the chance of being in a clinic and having a sudden Federal raid on it and getting assaulted. Not fun.
Just tell the cops you have some sort of serious contagious illness that only the marijuana can cure. They won't lay a hand on you AND you get the marijuana.

Killing two birds with one stoner.

Graun now says that DC has a final result of 92-8 in favour of the Democrats. Is this plausible? I'm not familiar with the political landscape across the water, so I don't know whether these figures are realistic or not.
Yep, that's entirely possible. IIRC Kerry won with 89%. There are a lot of African Americans and civil servants in DC.

[KukriKhan]

I just want to put up my feeling of humble, slightly-astonished gratitude at the interest of non-US orgahs in our messy, lo-o-o-ng, nasty, convoluted electoral system.

I'm stunned to realize that some of you are up beyond midnight to watch results.

The system isn't perfect. And it's certainly not efficient. But it does work. And it works without gunmen in the streets, or tanks on the corner, or elections called off at the last minute by a governing faction, or results quashed by the incumbent. And in January, the Old Boss will shake hands with the New Boss on Pennsylvania Avenue, and we'll continue.

I've kept the TV off for now. Any numbers yet on projected voter turnout? I'm actually more interested that we get up nearer 80% of registered voters suiting up and showing up, than on the actual POTUS results. If we can get more citizens to exercise their franchise, I'll feel like my own (tiny) sacrifices in the military, and the HUGE sacrifices of millions of others, won't be for naught.

[CountArach]

I've kept the TV off for now. Any numbers yet on projected voter turnout? I'm actually more interested that we get up nearer 80% of registered voters suiting up and showing up, than on the actual POTUS results. If we can get more citizens to exercise their franchise, I'll feel like my own (tiny) sacrifices in the military, and the HUGE sacrifices of millions of others, won't be for naught.
65% is the only statistic I've read, and that was only speculative.

[Koga No Goshi]

I just want to put up my feeling of humble, slightly-astonished gratitude at the interest of non-US orgahs in our messy, lo-o-o-ng, nasty, convoluted electoral system.

I'm stunned to realize that some of you are up beyond midnight to watch results.

The system isn't perfect. And it's certainly not efficient. But it does work. And it works without gunmen in the streets, or tanks on the corner, or elections called off at the last minute by a governing faction, or results quashed by the incumbent. And in January, the Old Boss will shake hands with the New Boss on Pennsylvania Avenue, and we'll continue.

I've kept the TV off for now. Any numbers yet on projected voter turnout? I'm actually more interested that we get up nearer 80% of registered voters suiting up and showing up, than on the actual POTUS results. If we can get more citizens to exercise their franchise, I'll feel like my own (tiny) sacrifices in the military, and the HUGE sacrifices of millions of others, won't be for naught.

Kukri, LA County is reporting upwards of 70%. And that's huge--- not only are we a state that typically votes after the election is already decided, but also usually have much lower turnout both because of that and because of the perception that CA is predecided anyway.

[JAG]

Graun now says that DC has a final result of 92-8 in favour of the Democrats. Is this plausible? I'm not familiar with the political landscape across the water, so I don't know whether these figures are realistic or not.

As CA said, it is the most single sided 'state' that has electors.

[CountArach]

Virginia called for Obama on CNN. Much tighter than the polls said it would be though. I am guessing the Undecideds broke in favour of McCain.

Pacific Coast about to close.

[GeneralHankerchief]

CNN calls Virginia for Obama.

-edit- Quick draw, CA. :smoking:

[Banquo's Ghost]

I'm stunned to realize that some of you are up beyond midnight to watch results.

It's just about to turn 4 am here. Yes, we're all mad, but it's compelling. :beam:

[CountArach]

Obama is the next President of the United States

[GeneralHankerchief]

It's officially over.

-edit- Jesus...

[KukriKhan]

Obama is the next President of the United States


he suggested humbly. :)

[Strike For The South]

What an utter ass kicking

[Koga No Goshi]

I can't even believe it. We have a hapa President.

Edit: I think of him as hapa, rather than "black." Lemur at least will get it. ;)

[JAG]

YES!!!!! :D:DD:D:D:D:D:D:

America I salute you, it makes up for the last guy! :2thumbsup::yes::bow:

[Strike For The South]

I can't even believe it. We have a hapa President.

Edit: I think of him as hapa, rather than "black." Lemur at least will get it. ;)
"Hapa" is a Hawaiian term used to describe a person of mixed Asian or Pacific Islander racial/ethnic heritage

[CountArach]

It's officially over.

-edit- Jesus...
Beaten out twice :tongue:

@ Kurki - Now is not the time to be humble.

[m52nickerson]

It started with "I have a dream!"...........