Rumour Control ie the bailout/nonbailout of the Irish republic

[gaelic cowboy]

No funding applications to EU or IMF - Cowen (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1115/economy.html)

The Taoiseach has said Ireland is making no application to Europe or the International Monetary Fund for funding the State.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen has said Ireland is making no application to Europe or the International Monetary Fund for funding the State.
But Mr Cowen said the Government would continue to work with partners to find ways of bringing stability to financial markets.
The Taoiseach said what was needed was 'calm heads and cool consideration' of all the complex issues involved.
Earlier Minister for Justice Dermot Ahern said he expects the four-year budget plan to be published early next week.
Mr Ahern also said that Ireland was in constant contact with the European Commission, but he said the nature of these talks were about the pressure on the euro.
The Minister reiterated that the country was fully funded until the middle of next year.
He said Ireland had not applied to the International Monetary Fund for assistance.
Commissioner Máire Geoghegan-Quinn also said no application has been received from the Irish Government for a bailout.
Head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers Jean-Claude Juncker said the eurozone countries would act quickly if Ireland needed help.
Mr Juncker said: 'We would be ready to respond to this request as soon as possible.
'Ireland has not formulated such a demand ... and we are not supposed to busy ourselves with a theoretical demand.
'The decision rests with the Irish Government. I am not making a public recommendation to Ireland.
'As for the budgetary consolidation, the Irish authorities have the matter in hand.'
The European Commission acknowledged that Ireland has come under pressure to accept a bailout.
However, a spokesman for Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said the pressure was not coming from the European Commission but another player.
European concerns
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Irish banking system's funding problems have deteriorated in recent weeks, which has caused significant concerns in Europe.
Between 27 August and 29 October, Ireland's banks received an additional €20bn in emergency liquidity funding from the Irish Central Bank.
At the same time, Irish financial institutions have also seen support from the European Central Bank jump to about €90bn.
High-level officials held meetings over the weekend regarding the possibility of a rescue fund for Ireland.
It is understood the discussions involved officials from Ireland, Germany, the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank.
It is believed agreement to a bailout would calm the markets after Ireland's cost of borrowing reached more than 9% last week.
The cost of borrowing for Ireland has declined today to 8.1%.
The drop follows a frenzy of media speculation over the weekend that Ireland was being urged to accept financial assistance.
Fine Gael Finance Spokesperson Michael Noonan said he thought there was substance in international media reports that there has been a difficulty in the Irish banks.
'I'm extremely concerned. I think the reports over the weekend are true,' Mr Noonan told the BBC.
'I think there is European intervention under way.
'I think the Irish Government are fighting a rearguard action for appearances purposes, but there's a meeting of the eurozone ministers for finance in Brussels tomorrow afternoon and on the following day there is a meeting of ECOFIN.
'That is the finance ministers of the whole European Union and I believe that things will come to head in the next 24 hours.'

It has finally happened the possibility of bailout for Ireland that I said was only 30% chance in the Irish Budget thread has now jumped to easily 50 or more percent.

The fear in our Eurozone co-members of contagion has frightened them into fearing a complete collapse of the Euro(hyperbole yes but still relevant to the discussion). Ireland has borrowed enough money till summer next year and we have access in a nuclear situation to a sovereign wealth fund ie the national pension fund of about 20/25billion euro.

Fact: Ireland is funded till mid July 2011 and beyond if we grab the pension money.
Fact: Severe spin has been spread about Ireland looking for money from the bailout fund over the weekend in an effort to force an actual bailout.
Fact: Were not buying bonds but others are and there bonds have gone up too.
Fact: The first three facts can only mean this is not about economics and actually about politics.

The government has decided to publish it's 4yr austerity budget next week even though it is not to be voted on till December.(mainly due to German requests it must be said). Ireland needs no money at all but if the high bond prices we are not buying continue for Portugal/Spain insert whoever you care to mention the actual euro will be suffer.

I predict that the Irish government will be pressured into accepting a bailout to stop a larger one of the rest of the PIIGS. The problem for this cozy consensus is the fact that if Ireland is bailed out then the precedent will be set of a funded country of being bailed out and the "Markets" will "Demand" bailout of the rest.

One possibility that our government is exploring is the possibility of a Euro bailout strictly for our sick banks in order to satisfy our Euro partners and the markets. This strikes me as a good idea BUT it may be too much for Germany to bear politically even though this could cause the bigger bailout no one wants.

It is pretty clear now that Angela Merkels (for a domestic audience)coments on scalping bondholders have backfired spectacularly hence the backtracking at the G20 conference but it may be too late now.

The high fiving of bond traders will be sickening to watch no doubt they have large positions in Irish bonds that are in danger of turning to dust if were not bailed out.

below is a blog which is what I figure you should read if you watching this crisis.

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev blog on possile bailout/nonbailout (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/)

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev is an academic in Trinity College Dublin

[gaelic cowboy]

Looks like the bailout could/will happen the question now is one of semantics ie of a national bailout or a banking bailout.

The European Central Bank Vice President has said aid would be available for Ireland, whether it was for its banks or the State.

European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio has said aid would be available for Ireland, whether it was for its banks or the State.
At a news conference in Vienna, Mr Constancio confirmed talks were under way on the issue, but that Ireland has not made any formal request for help.
The Portuguese Central Bank Governor said talks had been going on with other countries too, but that so far there have been no formal requests for aid.
He said that according to the European Financial Stability Facility's rules, loans cannot be made directly to banks.
Instead, the facility lends to governments, who earmark a certain amount of the funding for financial institutions.
Mr Constancio acknowledged that Ireland is financed until the middle of next year, but he said solutions 'have to be pondered' for the banks, which he said are at the centre of Ireland's problems.
EU seeks 'quick' solution
Earlier, the Austrian Central Bank Governor and ECB policymaker, Ewald Nowotny, said he did not expect Ireland's problem to spread to Spain and Portugal, but that the EU wants a 'quick, good' solution to Ireland.
However, a source at the European Financial Stabilisation Facility told RTÉ News the special EU bailout facility could not be used directly to support a country's banks.
However, a segment of any bailout could go to help the banking sector as long as the amount was declared and politically agreed 'up front' as part of a larger package going to support a member state.
The source drew attention to the one-off €110bn Greek rescue package agreed last May. On that occasion €10bn was set aside for the Greek banking sector.
The amount was fully agreed and politically cleared as part of the country programme agreed between Greece, the EU and the International Monetary Fund.
Portuguese, Greek problems
Meanwhile, Portugal's Finance Minister has said his country is at high-risk of needing a bailout due to the danger of contagion from other debt-hit euro nations.
'The risk is high because we are not facing only a national or country problem,' the Financial Times website quoted Fernando Teixeira dos Santos as saying in reference to the possibility that Lisbon will need international financial assistance.
'It is the problems of Greece, Portugal and Ireland. This is not a problem of only this country,' he added.
Earlier, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou warned that the tough stance taken by Germany on banks and bond markets sharing the pain of any eurozone debt default could force some economies towards bankruptcy.
He was speaking as new figures from the EU indicated that Greece's budget deficit is worse than had been thought.
EU and International Monetary Fund officials are in Athens to decide whether Greece should receive a third tranche of a rescue package.
Elsewhere, European Central Bank policy maker Axel Weber said that banks must be allowed to fold and backed the idea of issuing special bonds that would automatically convert to equity in the event of a crisis.
He was speaking at the opening of Euro Finance Week, which is expected to see bankers and policymakers clash over how far to go with new regulation.

The comments by Portugal/Greece are the real meat of this story and they are the thing we should all (in the Eurozone)try to prevent.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

You liberals are all crazy.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Ten quid says you'll have a bailout before the end of the week.


Also, all bond traders, lenders and investors must be hung from the nearest tree. Seriously, why do we let a few cowboys threaten our stability, when they serve little positive purpose besides filling their own coffers? They may have the money to overthrow countries, but we have got the teh tanks. I want them used. Our sovereignity and stability must be protected. Sell it to the public as part of the War on Terror. Call it financial terror or something, feed imagery of rich oil Arabs and Russians attacking our way of life.

Lastly, Ireland for UK province. I want London to buy the island. They can use it to grow potatoes or some such.

[gaelic cowboy]

Ten quid says you'll have a bailout before the end of the week.

Lastly, Ireland for UK province. I want London to buy the island. They can use it to grow potatoes or some such.

I would say we will maybe be bailed out next week.

Ireland is a larger market than China for the UK export sector good luck to them trying to get out of recession then.(apparently 5th in the line of export markets)

[Fragony]

Meow <- Celtic tiger

// eyes Germany and Vikingland *cough* nothern-union

[Furunculus]

Ireland should leave the eurozone.

It is a small economy heavily dependent on the UK/US markets in a way that is not true for club-med.

It relies on its business friendly environment to maintain a prosperous service sector, both of which are under threat from the twin forces of an envious europe (likely to force corporation tax increases) and an overvalued europe (ireland gets the pain without the benefit).

It should go directly to the IMF, exit the euro, devalue its currency, and Britain should provide financial assistance, we are up for £7b anyway.

The result would be a competitive economy with full fiscal sovereignty.

[gaelic cowboy]

Ireland should leave the eurozone.

It is a small economy heavily dependent on the UK/US markets in a way that is not true for club-med.

It relies on its business friendly environment to maintain a prosperous service sector, both of which are under threat from the twin forces of an envious europe (likely to force corporation tax increases) and an overvalued europe (ireland gets the pain without the benefit).

It should go directly to the IMF, exit the euro, devalue its currency, and Britain should provide financial assistance, we are up for £7b anyway.

The result would be a competitive economy with full fiscal sovereignty.

Agreed on every point.

Basically the same credit bubble will just happen again and again because our economy is the only game in town for Franco/Gerrman banks.

[al Roumi]

Lastly, Ireland for UK province. I want London to buy the island. They can use it to grow potatoes or some such.

Nah, grain would be a better crop for Ireland to contribute to the commonwealth.

[tibilicus]

Ireland should leave the eurozone.

It is a small economy heavily dependent on the UK/US markets in a way that is not true for club-med.

It relies on its business friendly environment to maintain a prosperous service sector, both of which are under threat from the twin forces of an envious europe (likely to force corporation tax increases) and an overvalued europe (ireland gets the pain without the benefit).

It should go directly to the IMF, exit the euro, devalue its currency, and Britain should provide financial assistance, we are up for £7b anyway.

The result would be a competitive economy with full fiscal sovereignty.

A lot of sense. It seems Ireland can only lose remaining in the Eurozone.

[gaelic cowboy]

A lot of sense. It seems Ireland can only lose remaining in the Eurozone.

In short what may have made some business sense in 1999 no longer makes sense events have overtaken the political reality of the Euro.

Business in Ireland has managed to increase trade with the Eurozone greatly it's no longer just USA/UK economy for us the real problem is the German Credit Heroin I lay ten quid in Paddy Powers this will happen again if we stay inside.

Therefore once we have the ability I believe the Euro members should just junk the Euro and if they want to after they can go and create a Euro 2.0 if they want without us (and the rest of PIIGS)in it.

[Beskar]

They should create a World Currency, that way, they can stop all this inflating out of debt, and other nonsense. The problem isn't with the Euro, the problem is with the economical mindset.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

They should create a World Currency, that way, they can stop all this inflating out of debt, and other nonsense. The problem isn't with the Euro, the problem is with the economical mindset.

No, the problem is sharing currency and not a treasury, the Romans will tell you that one Denarius is only worth the same accross the whole Empire when you only have one Emperor minting the coins. Ireland's inability to devaule, or do anything else, means that it will go bankrupt and have to be bailed out by other Eurozone countries in the same way that, for example, "The North" has been propted up by "The South" in England for about 30 years. Ireland's only hope of prosperity is either being completely subsumed into a larger more wealthy nation (not going to happen) or being fiscally independant.

(For those not up on ancient money - it was always allowed silver/gold and the silver/gold content reflected the liquidity of the government minting the coins, so rather like today the value of a country's currency reflected its wealth, only more litterally.)

[gaelic cowboy]

They should create a World Currency, that way, they can stop all this inflating out of debt, and other nonsense. The problem isn't with the Euro, the problem is with the economical mindset.

That would be a disaster Beskar some of the largest economies in the world are geared towards lending there own money to other countries in order to get a return on the money. If you linked all the currencies you would end up with Liberia having a bonds apparently as safe as German.

In short as long as our Irish banks and bond traders are addicted to the easy credit available in the Euro (due to an unnatural savings culture in the core) then this mess will happen again.

The avergae age in Ireland is around 35-38 we will need to borrow money in the future to run our economy and it will sow seeds for another bust in about 2030s.

[Beskar]

No, the problem is sharing currency and not a treasury, the Romans will tell you that one Denarius is only worth the same accross the whole Empire when you only have one Emperor minting the coins. Ireland's inability to devaule, or do anything else, means that it will go bankrupt and have to be bailed out by other Eurozone countries in the same way that, for example, "The North" has been propted up by "The South" in England for about 30 years. Ireland's only hope of prosperity is either being completely subsumed into a larger more wealthy nation (not going to happen) or being fiscally independant.)

Ok, so lets have the IMF mint the coins?

Also, it is Ireland's fault for their faulty economics. They should had some intelligence in arranging their country and simply not keep on borrowing needlessly. Same goes for other countries such as the UK and the USA.


That would be a disaster Beskar some of the largest economies in the world are geared towards lending there own money to other countries in order to get a return on the money. If you linked all the currencies you would end up with Liberia having a bonds apparently as safe as German.

In short as long as our Irish banks and bond traders are addicted to the easy credit available in the Euro (due to an unnatural savings culture in the core) then this mess will happen again.

No it won't, if I go to the bank, the interest rate would be determined on factors such as credit history, which could mean that me and you pay different interest rates on the loans. We don't magically have the same because we share the same currency.

As for "unnatural savings culture", Ireland could change its culture and simply start saving like good little boys and girls?

[Furunculus]

As for "unnatural savings culture", Ireland could change its culture and simply start saving like good little boys and girls?

why should they? so they can fit the glorious world government, did we check with the irish first on that one?

[Beskar]

why should they? so they can fit the glorious world government, did we check with the irish first on that one?

They can reap what they sow then, finical and institutional ruin? or is that what they are wanting which is being denied to them. :dizzy2:

[Furunculus]

well arguably they could collectively be considered guilty of idiocy, for entering into a political project that was economic suicide, if only they had had a few more sceptics................!

[Beskar]

well arguably they could collectively be considered guilty of idiocy, for entering into a political project that was economic suicide, if only they had had a few more sceptics................!

It wasn't economic suicide, since they benefited from the arrangement. What the problem was, Ireland was the economic liability as they abused the situation, opposed to using it. :wink:

End of the day, having different currencies is fundamentally idiotic. I have seen no real arguments for having different currencies, other than people abusing them for an 'advantage'.

[gaelic cowboy]

Also, it is Ireland's fault for their faulty economics. They should had some intelligence in arranging their country and simply not keep on borrowing needlessly. Same goes for other countries such as the UK and the USA.

My country did not borrow any money the stupid banks did thats why our private taxes have collapsed. You could only argue the government should have tried to take the heat out of the property boom but you generally do that with interest rate rises.




No it won't, if I go to the bank, the interest rate would be determined on factors such as credit history, which could mean that me and you pay different interest rates on the loans. We don't magically have the same because we share the same currency.

Wrong Ireland was apparently AAA+ or whatever is the top rate and so were the banks, the bond rate may have been different but the issuer was the ECB therefore it WAS the same as German bonds hence people bought so many.


As for "unnatural savings culture", Ireland could change its culture and simply start saving like good little boys and girls?

You cannot run an economy like Ireland by saving because the economy is know as an OPEN economy we do not try to hoard capital in the such an economy as it is too small. A good example is the idea of say a government scheme to scrap cars it's absolutely useless in an open economy as the money just flows abroad and then it's gone.

The unnatural saving culture I was really referring too is the fact the core actively resists expanding it's service sector to soak up it's own extra capital so it must go somewhere else, so it went on bonds that were at higher price but supposedly just as solid.

[Furunculus]

no, they were stuck within a currency union that fixed their interest rates at a level unsuitable for their economy, and now that bad things have happened they cannot devalue their currency so balance can only be achieved by shedding jobs.

the perils of a fixed exchange rate in a non-optimal currency union.

[gaelic cowboy]

It wasn't economic suicide, since they benefited from the arrangement. What the problem was, Ireland was the economic liability as they abused the situation, opposed to using it. :wink:

End of the day, having different currencies is fundamentally idiotic. I have seen no real arguments for having different currencies, other than people abusing them for an 'advantage'.

The Banks abused it to borrow for long term loans at short term rates that is what happened no fancy sub prime no goverment borrowing more than it needs it was Banks.

The ECB as much as admitted today that basically one bank did this to us known as Anglo Irish Bank.

[gaelic cowboy]

They can reap what they sow then, finical and institutional ruin? or is that what they are wanting which is being denied to them. :dizzy2:

Eurostat figures disagree with you

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/4-12112010-AP/EN/4-12112010-AP-EN.PDF
(http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/4-12112010-AP/EN/4-12112010-AP-EN.PDF)


Annual comparison
In September 2010 compared with September 2009, production of capital goods grew by 7.5% in the euro area and by 8.7% in the EU27. Intermediate goods increased by 6.8% and 7.5% respectively. Production of energy rose by 1.8% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU27. Non-durable consumer goods gained 1.6% and 2.5% respectively. Durable consumer goods fell by 0.2% in the euro area, but increased by 2.2% in the EU27.
Industrial production rose in all Member States for which data are available, except Greece (-7.6%), Portugal (-2.4%) and Spain (-1.4%). The highest increases were registered in Estonia (+31.1%), Latvia (+19.0%), the Czech Republic (+12.2%), Poland (+12.1%) and Ireland (+10.9%).

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1112/eurozone-business.html


Updated: 12:06, Friday, 12 November 2010 RTE News
Ireland has recorded the biggest month-on-month rise for industrial production across the euro zone, official figures have showed.
While industrial production across the euro zone fell by 0.9%, Ireland bucked the trend, surging 7.9% in September compared to August.
Ireland also showed the fifth highest rise year-on-year from September 2009 to September 2010.
The estimates were released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Basically this nothing to do with the economics and everything to do with politics why else try to force a bailout of a sovereign country that everyone agrees does not need the money.

They are afraid the rest of the PIIGS will go bust before we go back to the bond markets it really is as simple as that, notice how they keep mentioning Portugal in the news pieces they must be coming under pressure cos our government wont take the bailout.

I imagine there trying to engineer a bailout just of the banks to satisfy the ECB this gets the debts paid back and our banks agree to pay back the loan instead of the government. The best course of action is to take a strictly IMF bailout of the banks and avoid any problems with competition rules in the EU by doing so.

Germany does not pay out so there happy, PIIGS bond rates settle as there is backstop money for the AIB, BOI and ANGLO banks and finally our government was going to be introducing a hairshirt budget anyway regardless so who cares what the IMF does with the banks. A bailout from the EFSF will likely not work as the "Markets" will merely demand further bailouts and the Euro will collapse under the strain.

One last point if/when the bailout is agreed it is likely in my view to be created as a backstop and not actually be paid out to our banks at all who will likely just borrow from the international bond markets again just like every other bank in the world. Someone is going to make a killing buying Irish bonds that are actually ALL going to be paid up when there supposed to be paid up due to the safety created by the backstop.

[Furunculus]

how do you feel about adopting the pound?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100064000/there-is-a-way-out-for-ireland-and-britain-should-stand-ready-offer-it/

[gaelic cowboy]

It was basically the currency within living memory of many people here the Punt was take at a one for one rate with the Pound in the early years of the state. It has attractions especially in the agricultural sector it would also force a greater discipline on wages and costs which tend to be high here due to the small size of the market.

Irelands economy has always basically been one of a relatively wealthy UK region, I would not agree with just a currency union but we should track sterling more closely than the Euro. It may/will/is though politically unacceptable to the elite though who run the place as a even a temporary solution, there not interested in saving the country really (FF/Greens)as there majority is just two seats and there are 4 byelections coming up so there finished by next April.

We actually buy British food, clothes, newspaper and we even watch the same telly, I have never believed the theory this somehow makes me more British or less Irish my identity is what I say it is not what I consume in some kind of cultural imperialism bunkum. It is time to get real about our economy the elite sold us the Euro as a way to ensure a stable currency, our memories of having to devalue in 1992 were still colouring talk when we voted on it. For the first 5/6 yrs we did get a stable currency the big companies like Intel, IBM, HP and all the others did not mind at all really but the regulators were creatures of our banking sector they let rip the unsustainable borrowing in our banks.

Anglo Irish Bank pretty has almost caused the destruction of our economy and according to the EU is a matter of survival for the EU/Euro.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo_Irish_Bank

[Louis VI the Fat]

how do you feel about adopting the pound?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100064000/there-is-a-way-out-for-ireland-and-britain-should-stand-ready-offer-it/I for one already proposed Ireland should return to the status of British backwater again. What were the silly Micks thinking anyway in 1922?

I'm happy this view is shared by a completely serious British former MEP.

[Furunculus]

I for one already proposed Ireland should return to the status of British backwater again. What were the silly Micks thinking anyway in 1922?

I'm happy this view is shared by a completely serious British former MEP.

are you going to keep on setting up extreme straw-man arguments intended to position my argument far from where it actually is?

seems like you'd more profitably spend your time addressing the points raised by GC..........

[Louis VI the Fat]

Gaelic is no longer an interesting conversation partner. He does not represent a sovereign country anymore. So let's rather discuss the terms under which Britain can resume control over paddystan again.

I propose we consider it in the context of the inevitable demise of Belgium. How about the UK gets Ireland, France gets to assume control over Flanders, and we satisfy any German demands by offering them Greece?

[Furunculus]

i'm afraid it has always been British policy never to let a major power to get control of the low countries, so no dice.

if portugal is our oldest extant ally, then flanders/netherlands/belgium could make a decent case for being the second oldest.

[rory_20_uk]

France also needs to do more about those small principalities on its border who do little more than provide tax havens for companies and individuals. Invade the lot, it should only take a weekend.

I've no idea why Germany would want Greece. I've little idea why anyone would want Greece. Belgium could be divided amongst France, the Netherlands and Germany.

The UK doesn't want Ireland, as it's full of the Irish. Cromwell did his best, but sadly a few of the buggers weren't hunted down. Vermin are difficult to exterminate... The best solution would be a bilateral treaty with free trade and a currency ratio. I don't think that anything more than that would sit well with either side.

~:smoking:

[gaelic cowboy]

Gaelic is no longer an interesting conversation partner. He does not represent a sovereign country anymore. So let's rather discuss the terms under which Britain can resume control over paddystan again.

I propose we consider it in the context of the inevitable demise of Belgium. How about the UK gets Ireland, France gets to assume control over Flanders, and we satisfy any German demands by offering them Greece?

Ha ha mwah ha ha the Euro is doomed the longer we stay inside it and you know it, EU governemts are :daisy: themselves that potentially FF wont accept the bailout a potential timebomb for Spain/Portugal/Greece/Italy.

When the Irish government says it's fully funded there not lying you know hence every finance minister is coming to Dublin to basically threaten/cajole/plead with our government to take the bailout to save the rest of the PIIGS(Greece/Portugal check there statements if you still havent figured it out yet)

You need to get serious about the fact the Euro is a political and not an economic construction since that means sensible economic policy is not followed this will just happen again and again and again. No one here actually wants the bailout we would actually prefer to just cut and work hard at sorting our own economy, but we are not heartless we talking about a possible once off full complete bailout of our banks to satisfy the :daisy: bond traders in order to help the bond rates cool for the other and far larger PIIGS.

I predict if Ireland takes EFSF money the bond markets will not be satisfied and will move to the next target, far better to take a strictly IMF bailout that avoids the EFSF(it cant be used for banks anyway). The markets have been sceptical about it's implementation since the beginning anyway they believe if EFSF is invoked it will just lead to a race of the PIIGS to get it eventually Germany calls a halt by devaluing all the debt and transferring ownership of distressed banks to bondholders.

The last thing we need is more government debt and why should Germany give us money anyway I say let the IMF run BOI, AIB, and Anglo into the ground ordinary depositers money is safe up to 100 grand anyway.

[drone]

Gaelic is no longer an interesting conversation partner. He does not represent a sovereign country anymore. So let's rather discuss the terms under which Britain can resume control over paddystan again.
Wait, wait, wait a minute. Does this mean I will have to start giving money to the IRA again? :inquisitive:

[Tellos Athenaios]

France also needs to do more about those small principalities on its border who do little more than provide tax havens for companies and individuals. Invade the lot, it should only take a weekend. Like... Sark?



I've no idea why Germany would want Greece. I've little idea why anyone would want Greece.

Same reason why anyone would want certain parts France or Italy: nice weather, landscape, and has some cultural heritage. Exact same reason why no-one wants Northern Scotland, Alaska or other such places by choice: too wet/cold/forsaken.


Belgium could be divided amongst France, the Netherlands and Germany.

No it couldn't. Belgians have a “can't live with you, can't live without you” type or relationship with the other Belgians. Before you know it they'll be flying Belgian flags in the former Belgian regions, speak French or German in Flanders, and Dutch or German in Wallonia, and French or Dutch in that little part which is basically Germany. They'll insist they really need 3 languages to communicate anything. And they'll withhold the chocolate and beer.

At that point the French will have to reconsider all their national stereotypes and Nord-Pas-de-Calais may no longer suffice for “promoting” people out of the way.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Wait, wait, wait a minute. Does this mean I will have to start giving money to the IRA again? :inquisitive:Yes. Already they are leaving for your shores again!


Irish history:

400 St Patrick. Ireland saves Christianity.
400-1848 Nothing
1848-1916 Potatoes, famine, mass emigration
1916-1995 Civil Wars, bombs
1995-2010 Happiness! Loadsa money, a second home for every Irishman. Ireland to live happily ever after!
2010 As if. Dream on. Destitution for the Irish again. Emigration. Bankruptcy.

[gaelic cowboy]

Yes. Already they are leaving for your shores again!


Irish history:

400 St Patrick. Ireland saves Christianity.
400-1848 Nothing
1848-1916 Potatoes, famine, mass emigration
1916-1995 Civil Wars, bombs
1995-2010 Happiness! Loadsa money, a second home for every Irishman. Ireland to live happily ever after!
2010 As if. Dream on. Destitution for the Irish again. Emigration. Bankruptcy.

2010 Christine Lagarde pleading/begging/threatening us to take the koolade to save the Euro(as if it will work we both know it's a sham)

2011 the D-mark is reissued due to an new government in Germany every agrees it was all a big mistake to have currency union without political union.

2012 and beyond everyone on the org cops it has little effect on there day to day lives and we get back to real life pcgaming.

[Beskar]

agrees it was all a big mistake to have currency union without political union.

Exactly, that is why a political union is needed.

[Furunculus]

Exactly, that is why a political union is needed.............

.............. for those who want it!

quick, let's have a referendum in Britain so we can say "YES!" straight away, good idea huh?


oh, wait............:oops:

[rory_20_uk]

We could keep having referendums sponsored by the EU every, say, 6 months. The "no" campaign would run out of money soon enough and they might get the right, sorry, the "yes" vote at some point due to voter fatigue or just random change then we could stop having them.

~:smoking:

[Furunculus]

well Beskar would be happy, wouldn't that be good enough?

[gaelic cowboy]

@ Louis if this bailout goes ahead in the EFSF form it wont work and the nightmare of the Neo-Liberal public service model you keep talking about as a conspiracy will actually happen to France.

The bond traders are not afraid of losing money on this deal in fact they stand to lose only if they debt is revalued, thats why they got so stroppy on Irelands bond rate thats why there threatening Portugal/Italy/Spain and Greece. There demanding full payment for something that has not happened yet, effectively were being had bailing out massive positions in effectively worthless paper.

There high fiving each other in those hedge funds all week just take a look at the bank shares in Ireland they actually went UP :dizzy2: no Irish person bought them thats for sure.

[Furunculus]

this is not the fault of 'predatory' hedge-funds either, it is the fault of creating an unworkable monetary-union for ridiculous political-dreams.

[gaelic cowboy]

this is not the fault of 'predatory' hedge-funds either, it is the fault of creating an unworkable monetary-union for ridiculous political-dreams.

That may be what got us here but that is not what is forcing the bailouts all over the place, they know that the EU is too embarrassed to actually revalue the Euro or the government debt.

It's the first real crisis in the Eurozone so they piled in knowing full well countries like Ireland would cut services etc while France and Germany would demand the euro be maintained it was never going to work and they were right.

You could argue that they are simply taking advantage of a good position and that pig headedness is holding us in the matrix of an untenable position.

[Furunculus]

That may be what got us here but that is not what is forcing the bailouts all over the place, they know that the EU is too embarrassed to actually revalue the Euro or the government debt.

granted, sounds like the solution is to collectively accept political union, with all that entails, or admit the failure of a ridiculous political ideology and return to the EEC; a cooperative and harmonious free trade area.

rumpey pumpey talking about the survival of the EU makes me laugh, not my EU, hasn't been since it lost the extra "E" in EEC.

i don't want his political union.

[gaelic cowboy]

granted, sounds like the solution is to collectively accept political union, with all that entails, or admit the failure of a ridiculous political ideology and return to the EEC; a cooperative and harmonious free trade area.

rumpey pumpey talking about the survival of the EU makes me laugh, not my EU, hasn't been since it lost the extra "E" in EEC.

i don't want his political union.

Did you watch Newsnight tonight I'm now more convinced than ever the Euro will go the way of the ERM maybe not yet but I cannot see it lasting past 2020 at the maximum. Mostly I think there just annoyed they will have to listen to the likes of Farage and co laughing at them with "I told you so" but the market will eventually force the issue on them just like 1992 on UK and Ireland trying to peg to D-mark.

I admit that it will be painful to junk it but not half as painful as going through this again.

I admit now here that the Euro was a massive mistake for Ireland when allied to light touch banking regulation and with a young population who needed capital to open a business buy a home etc etc.

We were doing grand until the dotcom crash and the 9-11 attack no problems for our economy we were always in the black but slowly like a virus easy credit for our banks became a drug. Anglo Irish Bank will go down in the history of this country like An Gorta Mor(the famine) Sean Fitzpatrick is basically the ultimate evil gilded age robber baron and his supposed success made other banks foolishly follow him.

[Furunculus]

reintroduce the punt, and peg it to sterling, we'll bail irelands banks out.

[gaelic cowboy]

It is what I would do but the ECB cannot allow it to happen as first there all out of a job and second they are just unable to frame this in economic terms. Listen to the quotes all week it is all rubbish about the EU being in a survival crisis it's bunkum pure and simple.

We basically went into the Euro out of a fear we might be left behind a Eurozone that powered ahead, plenty economists warned this might happen but the debate was really framed by the political elite as a case of in or out of Europe.

[Vladimir]

France also needs to do more about those small principalities on its border who do little more than provide tax havens for companies and individuals. Invade the lot, it should only take a weekend.

I've no idea why Germany would want Greece. I've little idea why anyone would want Greece. Belgium could be divided amongst France, the Netherlands and Germany.

The UK doesn't want Ireland, as it's full of the Irish. Cromwell did his best, but sadly a few of the buggers weren't hunted down. Vermin are difficult to exterminate... The best solution would be a bilateral treaty with free trade and a currency ratio. I don't think that anything more than that would sit well with either side.

~:smoking:

Ahh, and so it begins. I like European wars; we can drink alcohol when we're not on duty. :barrel:

:laugh4:


Yes. Already they are leaving for your shores again!


Irish history:

400 St Patrick. Ireland saves Christianity.
400-1848 Nothing
1848-1916 Potatoes, famine, mass emigration
1916-1995 Civil Wars, bombs
1995-2010 Happiness! Loadsa money, a second home for every Irishman. Ireland to live happily ever after!
2010 As if. Dream on. Destitution for the Irish again. Emigration. Bankruptcy.

Louis: if we ever meet, drinks are on me.

Just to be clear: I'm not laughing at Ireland's misfortune. :no:

[gaelic cowboy]

Ahh, and so it begins. I like European wars; we can drink alcohol when we're not on duty. :barrel:


It'll be over before christmas :yes: at least thats what the elite will tell us.

[Louis VI the Fat]

I admit now here that the Euro was a massive mistake for Ireland when allied to light touch banking regulation and with a young population who needed capital to open a business buy a home etc etc.

We were doing grand until the dotcom crash and the 9-11 attack no problems for our economy we were always in the black No Ireland was not doing grand. Like Greece, Ireland refused to levy taxes. That works for a brief while, but one can't base a sustainable economy on such a dreamland.

Ireland should accept an EU bailout and the Thatcherite discipline that it will bring with it. It is not so bad, it is only Europe's mighty Teutonic centre imposing its stern discipline on Europe's periphery - which is the whole point of the Euro. It is God's punishment for us foolishly having stopped Germany's previous attempts at European overlordship:

the Germans knew something like this was going to happen. Indeed it was supposed to happen. The whole point of the euro with its strict anti-inflationary rules was to ram through economic reform in the soft underbelly of Europe. Any country that has the same currency as Germany is going to have to perform to a similar standard of efficiency. Bloated public payrolls, stupid subsidies for uncompetitive industries, underinvestment in science, technology and education, corruption, tax exemption for the professional classes etc – you can't afford that kind of laissez-faire unless you periodically devaluate your currency.

Since no government on the Mediterranean rim was willing to take the political risk that Margaret Thatcher undertook in order to make Britain competitive again, the euro was introduced; the euro was supposed to be for southern Europe what Maggie's TINA – "there is no alternative (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_is_no_alternative)" – was for Britain. And so it has turned out. Ask the Greeks. And the Irish, the Portuguese, the Spanish and the Italians. (Well, not the Italians. They're too busy watching the antics of the dirty old man who poses as prime minister. But they're going to have to switch off the TV some time.)

[gaelic cowboy]

No Ireland was not doing grand. Like Greece, Ireland refused to levy taxes. That works for a brief while, but one can't base a sustainable economy on such a dreamland.

Ireland should accept an EU bailout and the Thatcherite discipline that it will bring with it. It is not so bad, it is only Europe's mighty Teutonic centre imposing its stern discipline on Europe's periphery - which is the whole point of the Euro. It is God's punishment for us foolishly having stopped Germany's previous attempts at European overlordship:

Louis your obsessed with corporation tax no part of this crisis came from low-tax on Ireland's real economy it came from a collapse in house prices and an overextended banking system fueled by an unsustainable property boom. We have a tax here called Stamp Duty when you buy a house it is really big and it cannot be borrowed against it must be up front by the buyer. Our government used stamp duty to fund the public sector increases here and through it this tax was our downfall as the government had pots of cash to bribe electorates and none of us not even yourself had copped the potential timebomb.

What we should have had was a stricter banking regulator and that is about the height of it, even now the whole debate here is framed by how the banks and government conspired to keep the property boom going to win elections.

You can indeed run our economy on low tax what we cannot do is borrow foreign money forever and expect French style public services to last when it's based on a property tax. If we try to tax big to fund public services it will fail were too small we cannot and do not need to give in to a fictitious idea that we can run an economy on other peoples money that includes taxes as well as German bond cash.

The way to stop this happening again is to reintroduce rates on property you own to discourage large scale investment by the populace.

To have stronger regulation of casino and highstreet banks they basically codded us since reagan with light touch financialism.

To discourage long term loans ie mortgages with short term capital loans (yes they borrowed for long term with short term money)

There is no need to raise tax on business at all when people here pay no water charges or no carbon tax they pay no rates etc there is plenty scope to raise tax just the right ones.

[Furunculus]

It is what I would do but the ECB cannot allow it to happen as first there all out of a job and second they are just unable to frame this in economic terms. Listen to the quotes all week it is all rubbish about the EU being in a survival crisis it's bunkum pure and simple.

We basically went into the Euro out of a fear we might be left behind a Eurozone that powered ahead, plenty economists warned this might happen but the debate was really framed by the political elite as a case of in or out of Europe.
bunkum it might be, but its up to ireland whether it chooses to accept it, or act in its own interest instead.

plenty of economists thought that thatchers cuts in the 80's would stall the economy too.............


No Ireland was not doing grand. Like Greece, Ireland refused to levy taxes. That works for a brief while, but one can't base a sustainable economy on such a dreamland.

absurdity! the fact that ireland's economy was working on a fixed exchange rate that followed the euro's titan, germany, rather than one that was correctly valued for ireland had nothing to do with it? nor too that the interest rate again centred around what was right and appropriate for germany, rather than the peripheral nations? come on Louis, there's a brain in there that can come up with much more than witty and vapid platitudes.

----------------------------

economist on ireland's bail-out:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2010/11/ireland_and_euro_0

interestingly, austria are now threatening ireland as well as greece with non payment of bail-out funds. how's that european solidarity coming along, eh?

[gaelic cowboy]

The deal is done were just haggling over price now, as I predicted the money will be in the form of a loan to the banks which the government can draw on in a nuclear situation as a buffer should they need it. This is the best way forward the Government takes on no more debt the banks have ability to weather any loss which should take the heat out of the bond market now. The pressure should ease on sovereign debt next week when the deal is announced and Portugal/Spain and Greece can breathe a little easier.


RTE News Central Bank Governor expects loan offer

Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan has said he expects talks between the IMF, ECB and European Commission will result in a loan being offered to Ireland.

Governor of the Central Bank Patrick Honohan has said he expects that talks between the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission, which begin in Dublin today, will result in a loan being offered to Ireland.
Opposition leaders have welcomed the clarity of his remarks.
The representatives of the IMF, the ECB and the Commission will discuss Ireland's four-year budgetary plan and the restructuring of the banking sector.
Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr Honohan said the negotiations were not about a bailout, but would lead to a loan of tens of billions to Ireland, and that the Government would have to accept it.
'The intention is and the expectation is, on their part and personally on my part, that negotiations or discussions will be effective and a loan will be made available and drawn down as necessary,' Professor Honohan said.
He said he did not see the visit as a 'worrisome' event or something that would lead to a change in the Government's direction on the economy.
The Governor also said the IMF and ECB would not bring a big technical team to Dublin if they were not sure that a plan could be designed and agreed for the Irish economy.
Professor Honohan said the interest rate charged on any loans from the IMF/ECB will be roughly in line with previous IMF loans, but says the issue is complicated.
On the banks, he said the huge amounts of money put into them already have not yet generated sufficient confidence on international markets.
He said the banks will use any IMF/ECB money as contingent funding which can be shown to international investors but does not have to be used. The funds can be used as a buffer and come back out when they are not needed, as happened in the US in 2008.
Professor Honohan said there have been substantial outflows of deposits from the banks since April as large investment funds and institutions, which had invested in the Irish banks at the height of the economic boom and when the country had an AAA rating, decided to pull out when we lost that rating.
But he pointed out that all this was replaced by borrowings from the ECB. He said the banks have the facilities to deal with these outflows of money.
This afternoon, Taoiseach Brian Cowen said the Central Bank Governor is entitled to give his view of the outcome of talks with European officials and the IMF.
However, he said his responsibility is to get the best possible outcome for the country and taxpayers.
He denied he was talking in riddles and says he is discharging his job responsibly.
EC president says no pressure on Ireland
President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso has said the Commission was not putting pressure on Ireland to resort to EU financial help, but added that it must act speedily due to a very specific problem in the banking sector.
The Taoiseach again insisted that the Government was not involved in negotiations on a bailout.
Today's talks follow two days of discussions in Brussels involving eurozone and EU finance ministers on a way forward for Ireland.
While the Government had attempted to draw a distinction between emergency aid for the banks and for the State, it is being reported this morning that there is now a reluctant acceptance that any funding for the banks will have to be drawn by the State.
A further priority will be to preserve Ireland's 12.5% corporation tax. But already there is pressure on that front with the Austrian finance minister saying there needed to be talks with the Irish Government about the issue.
However, Minister for Enterprise, Trade & Innovation Batt O'Keeffe has again insisted that Ireland's corporate tax rate is not an issue for consultation or negotiation as part of the talks with IMF and EU officials.
Meanwhile, Seán Power, Fianna Fáil TD for Kildare South, has said the Government failed the people by its inability to explain the current financial and economic situation.
Mr Power told the Dáil last night that a game of semantics was being played in the past week, which he said was a poor one for the Government.
He claimed ministers had treated people as if they could not understand the complexities of the financial situation that we are in


RTE News Contingency fund a desirable outcome: Lenihan

Brian Lenihan has told the Dáil that if a substantial contingency fund arose from talks with the IMF and the EU it would be a 'very desirable outcome' - but he said they were not at that point yet.

The Minister for Finance has told the Dáil that if a substantial contingency fund arose from talks with the IMF and the European Union it would be a 'very desirable outcome' - but he said they were not at that point yet.
Brian Lenihan also said that if the Government had been reticent in public comment about contact with our European partners and the International Monetary Fund, it had been to protect the taxpayer.
He said it was the job of the Government to protect the taxpayer and that is what it is doing.
He said our problems did not relate to budgetary matters but they were problems of a structural nature in the banking sector.
The minister said the IMF, ECB and the European Commission were here to look at what shape a financial package might take and there was no question of loading an unspecified burden on the taxpayer.
He again defended the bank guarantee saying the governor had defended it this morning and the European finance ministers have agreed it was the correct strategy at the time.
The minister has moved to reassure the public that all deposits in Irish banks are 'safe and secure'.
Mr Lenihan began his contribution on the banking crisis by saying there had been misinformed, inaccurate and misleading comments about the guarantee.
He said it had been extended by a vote of the House yesterday.
Fine Gael's Finance Spokesman described the Government's banking strategy as 'disastrous' and accused it of pursuing it in the teeth of opposition.
Michael Noonan said the Government was an embarrassment to the Irish people and the Governor of the Central Bank felt the onus to come out and explain to the Irish people what was happening.
He called for those who lent recklessly to share the burden of the cost of the banking woes.
He said we now had an answer to the New York Times' editorial question - 'Could a bank bring down a country?'.
Deputy Noonan welcomed the minister's clarification on the banking guarantee, saying he had been contacted by constituents asking him if they should open sterling accounts and move their money.
He accused the minister of moving his position on negotiations with holders of senior debt saying the minister initially indicated legal advice had informed him that they could not be negotiated with.
That position was now changing, he said.

I imagine the only two banks who will draw on this fund IF worst came to the worst would be Anglo Irish Bank and Allied Irish Bank. However the new financial regulator Mathew Elderfield already ordered extra capital requirements in all Irish banks ages ago so I expect the fund may never get used. This merely happened because no one believed AIB, BOI and Anglo figures and when this deal is inked there will be no need to worry as the traders are guaranteed payment.

[Louis VI the Fat]

interestingly, austria are now threatening ireland as well as greece with non payment of bail-out funds. how's that european solidarity coming along, eh?Yes, I can fully relate to that.

Greece and Ireland refuse to levy taxes. Instead, they spend spend spend on the wave of a strong Euro. Then their dreamland collapses. Rather than face up to it, politicians cling on and on to illusory hopes of finding some sort of solution. They can afford to do this, because they realise that the European safety net is always there. Only when each and every other internal, face-saving possiblity has been exhausted, only then, do the Irish and Greek politicians agree with a bail-out.

Meanwhile, the bills pile on for the European taxpayer, who apparantly just has to sit there while the eventual bill rises every day because of Irish pigheadedness.

[Louis VI the Fat]

The deal is done were just haggling over price nowYes, thank you Dublin.

That took Dublin only a full week of wasting everybody's time. And everybody else's tax money.

I do want my ten quid if the deal is finalised today.

Ten quid says you'll have a bailout before the end of the week.

[Furunculus]

Yes, I can fully relate to that.

Greece and Ireland refuse to levy taxes. Instead, they spend spend spend on the wave of a strong Euro. Then their dreamland collapses. Rather than face up to it, politicians cling on and on to illusory hopes of finding some sort of solution. They can afford to do this, because they realise that the European safety net is always there. Only when each and every other internal, face-saving possiblity has been exhausted, only then, do the Irish and Greek politicians agree with a bail-out.

Meanwhile, the bills pile on for the European taxpayer, who apparantly just has to sit there while the eventual bill rises every day because of Irish pigheadedness.

rubbish.

ireland doesn't have a sovereign debt crisis, it has a bank crisis.

[Beskar]

This thread needs more discussion on cheese.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Yes, I can fully relate to that.

Greece and Ireland refuse to levy taxes. Instead, they spend spend spend on the wave of a strong Euro. Then their dreamland collapses. Rather than face up to it, politicians cling on and on to illusory hopes of finding some sort of solution. They can afford to do this, because they realise that the European safety net is always there. Only when each and every other internal, face-saving possiblity has been exhausted, only then, do the Irish and Greek politicians agree with a bail-out.

Meanwhile, the bills pile on for the European taxpayer, who apparantly just has to sit there while the eventual bill rises every day because of Irish pigheadedness.

Hmph. Mr. "I Love The Welfare State" is against welfare for states.

You've really got a sore spot over countries that don't buy into France's high tax scheme, huh?

CR

[Kagemusha]

Gaelic is no longer an interesting conversation partner. He does not represent a sovereign country anymore. So let's rather discuss the terms under which Britain can resume control over paddystan again.

I propose we consider it in the context of the inevitable demise of Belgium. How about the UK gets Ireland, France gets to assume control over Flanders, and we satisfy any German demands by offering them Greece?

Surely Ireland should be returned to Nordic countries like is just and rightful. :P Afterall only reason we are in the EU is to pay for the bancrupcies of the Western and Southern prodigals.

[Furunculus]

Hmph. Mr. "I Love The Welfare State" is against welfare for states.

You've really got a sore spot over countries that don't buy into France's high tax scheme, huh?

CR

ironically, he is a giant flying advert for why a federal european union can never work, and the more he blindly protests about the inequities of others in failing to meet the european 'standard' the more obvious it is to everyone else that IT just ain't gonna work! :D

[Louis VI the Fat]

Hmph. Mr. "I Love The Welfare State" is against welfare for states.

You've really got a sore spot over countries that don't buy into France's high tax scheme, huh?

CRThe United States has a higher corporate tax burden than France. :beam:

Strong, assertive governments make for happy, wealthy capitalist countries. North America and the European continent have sustainalbe taxation rates. These countries are undermined by the predatory tax havens which seem to be the norm in the entire Atlantic, from Bermuda and the Cayman Islands to Ireland, Isle of Man and Guernsey. Even the UK can't choose between being a responsible taxation country or a predatory one.


Japan - 40%
Canada - 36%
USA - 35%
France/Germany - 33.33%
UK - 28%
African hellholes - 28% to12.5%
Ireland - 12.5%

[Louis VI the Fat]

The simplified political economy story goes as follows. Ireland had low nominal and even lower effective corporate tax rates. It also had low personal taxes, both because of the belief that this would foster entrepreneurship etc, and because the government used to periodically sweeten bargains between business and labor by promising tax cuts (which of course favored the rich more than the poor), inter alia buying off unions who might otherwise have started getting feisty about organizing the unorganized bits of the new Irish economy.


The result was that even with booming economic growth, the government faced a fiscal hole. This hole was filled by taxes on property transactions which, as the property market got ever more bubbly, became an ever more important source of government revenue. This provided the government with an extremely strong incentive not to deflate the bubble, reinforcing the already considerable incentives towards inaction resulting from cronyism between politicians and property tycoons, ideological notions about not interfering with ‘free’ markets etc.


When the bubble burst and the bezzle came into full view, the results were quite unpleasant, as this ESRI graph shows.


http://crookedtimber.org/2010/11/09/cultures-of-impunity/

No taxation for corporations in Ireland. How then, did the Irish government get its funds? By taxation on property transactions. These the government subsequently stimulated. But prices can't go up forever, the whole of Ireland is not worth more than the rest of Europe. It is a pyramid game. Sooner or later it ends.

Now the bubble has burst, the pyramid collapsed.

The European taxpayer is now kindly requested to please foot the bill, to please fill the budget deficit that Ireland refuses to fill with mature corporate taxation. The tight, ever so very tight connections between Irish politicians and Irish / Irish-American businessmen has held: as we speak, as tens of billions of European taxpayer money keeps Ireland afloat, Irish politicians stubbornly refuse to levy taxes on their businesses.
But while these cronies can :daisy: the Irishman with apparant impunity, the European taxpayer is less easily intimidated. Nor have we European taxpayers all been lured into the pyramid game with the promise of a second home and an ever increasing value of the first.

Europe has had a long standing conflict with Ireland's ill-displined taxation scheme. One Greece is enough. Both countries receive massive EU funding, yet both refuse to collect taxes internally, because of corrupt politicians. Now on top of the massive subsidies both need enormous bailouts too. Enough of all that. Europe is not a through for corrupt countries. If it were up to me, Ireland must implement stern German fiscal discipline if it wants to receive a bailout:





French and German officials are pressing Ireland to increase its low corporate tax rate (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f85ae612-f26c-11df-a2f3-00144feab49a.html#axzz15f46nJhC)in return for an aid package, setting the stage for a showdown over a policy long resented by Dublin’s European partners.
Ireland (http://www.ft.com/indepth/ireland-fiscal-crisis)views the corporate tax rate, set at 12.5 per cent, as the cornerstone of its industrial policy. On Thursday Irish officials reiterated their determination to protect it. “It’s non-negotiable,” Mary Coughlan, the deputy prime minister, told parliament.


French, German and European officials told the Financial Times that the tax rate had emerged as a major point of contention as negotiators from the European Union and International Monetary Fund arrived in Dublin to discuss a potential bail-out (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9c09aa1a-f2f3-11df-9514-00144feab49a.html)


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/9c09aa1a-f2f3-11df-9514-00144feab49a,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F9c09aa1a-f2f3-11df-9514-00144feab49a.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fforums.totalwar.org%2Fvb%2Fshowthread.php%3F131704-Rumour-Control-ie-the-bailout-nonbailout-of-the-Irish-republic%2Fpage4#axzz15rMwR94k

[gaelic cowboy]

Europe has had a long standing conflict with Ireland's ill-displined taxation scheme. One Greece is enough. Both countries receive massive EU funding, yet both refuse to collect taxes internally, because of corrupt politicians. Now on top of the massive subsidies both need enormous bailouts too. Enough of all that. Europe is not a through for corrupt countries. If it were up to me, Ireland must implement stern German fiscal discipline if it wants to receive a bailout:

A best you will get 2 or 3 % hardly a major victory for people intent on destroying our corporate tax rate. High tax wont work here we ruined the country in the 1980s with it over 60% tax rate an interest rate of 20% on loans it was a terrible time and no one is going to accept going back to that high tax world it wont work.

Interestingly the tax rate is low but companies have switched to other countries like Poland or even further afield seems like tax is not the only reason to site a factory in a country.

If tax was the only criteria then there would not be a single factory in France and everything in the world would be made in China.

[Louis VI the Fat]

companies have switched to other countries like Poland or even further afield seems like tax is not the only reason to site a factory in a country.
Taxes are not the only criterium indeed.

Microsoft is perfectly environmentally friendly and without any strenous labour whatsoever. Therefore MS chooses to be based in the tax haven of Ireland.
Other companies can gain a competitive advantage by producing enviromentally unfriendly, therefore they settle in the EU country with the least environmental protection. Yet other companies require dangerous, unhealthy work. They settle in the EU country with the lowest social standards.

In this manner, Europe being a common market, companies can go shopping for the country willing to bend over backwards most for their particular requests. We are turning ourselves into India. Little nine year old girls picking batteries for twentyfive cents with disastrous environmental damage.

There is nothing clever, or 'competitive' about mature democracies in a common market undercutting each other. It is silly, unsustainable, and not at all conducive to creating either a healthy and wealthy society nor a thriving business environment.



'Race to the Bottom' - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_to_the_bottom

[gaelic cowboy]

So if Microsoft only care about tax why would they pay French corporate tax levels in Ireland if they wont even pay it in France when India is available by modem. There was no computer industry here in Ireland before the rate was lowered and it's obvious to anyone they will leave not just Ireland but the EU and then no one has a job and you never get any bailout money back ever.

[gaelic cowboy]

There is nothing clever, or 'competitive' about mature democracies in a common market undercutting each other. It is silly, unsustainable, and not at all conducive to creating either a healthy and wealthy society nor a thriving business environment.



'Race to the Bottom' - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_to_the_bottom

There is even less cleverness is trying to buck the inevitable the only way were going to afford anything in the future in any European country is if pretty much the majority of the social protections are removed.

Basically we will have to decide if we want people working or unemployed.

I choose work over the dole anyday.

[Louis VI the Fat]

/Anyway, after Greece and Ireland, who's next for the banksters?

The routine is established. Cry high risk, sell bonds at enormously inflated interest rates to account for this risk, next cry panic, get somebody to guarantee the bonds for you. And voilà, high yield bonds, perfectly secured.


Portugal? Not in any particular dire straits, but always a weak economy, an easy prey.
Belgium? A strong economy, but with some debt issues. Most importantly, politically volatile. A determined attack on Belgium will mean the Belgian governments attack one another, instead of tackling the problem. An easy prey.
Spain? The big elephant in the room. A property bubble of near Irish proportion, but on a vastly larger scale. Spain may be too big too fail, and too big too bail out. It will be a great game of bluff between the haute finance crooks and Europe.

[gaelic cowboy]

The game is up for the Euro the masters of the universe see weakness and there moving in the Core will try to defend the weaker areas to defend themselves and therefore sicken the euro internally.

Large scale euro area default mechanism sometime in 2012 I expect and euro 2.0 later on to be a smaller currency PIIGS to be let go after they have defaulted as one.