Euro Area

[InsaneApache]

You can't vote the EU buggers out, That's the crux of the problem.

[gaelic cowboy]

You can't vote the EU buggers out, That's the crux of the problem.

Thats what I will say when someone tries to blacken me with eurosceptism or extreme republicanism or whatever ism you like.

Sure Irish politicians make mistakes but at least I can get rid of them, I never voted for Mr Rumpy Pumpy our new potential overlord.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

When we had our own currency we had to track sterling and the dollar due to our trade patterns, the reality is we still should be doing that today.
Basically we were fine before whats wrong with admitting a mistake and starting over, the level of disconnect I hear all the time about how you cannot go back blah blah is just daft.

I not stupid enough to think it would be painless to leave the Euro, but I have enough brains to cop this cannot pass and therefore it is another crisis for the Euro.

Do they really want to have deal with an Irish no vote again I doubt it, were heading for the door bye and it's what europe wants

Oh, quite. Ireland would be best to leave - as would Greece and Portugal. The fact that a controlled breakup of the EU has not already begun is, frankly, unintelligable. What we are going to get is a forced breakup instead, or a Fourth Riech.

[gaelic cowboy]

Oh, quite. Ireland would be best to leave - as would Greece and Portugal. The fact that a controlled breakup of the EU has not already begun is, frankly, unintelligable. What we are going to get is a forced breakup instead, or a Fourth Riech.

It's what they want in reality there just incapable of admitting it.

I suspect they want us to vote no in fact :yes: the crisis would require some kind of exit plan for a country allowing Germany to decouple Ireland, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy and whoever else wants the door.

[Fragony]

As I did.

Now when will people learn that the politicians are the problem. Not the answer.

Ya, if I remember correctly teh swamp and teh frogs crearly said NO. Wrong answer I guess

[Papewaio]

You can't vote the EU buggers out, That's the crux of the problem.

You can't vote the highest tier directly in either can you?

[Louis VI the Fat]

I still have a hope that European leaders, like their American counterparts, will do the right thing - after they have tried everything else.But Sarkozy and Merkel ARE doing the right thing. They are opting for the bold move forward.

We are currently witnessing the long known problems that a common currency faces without common economic policy. The obvious way forward then is to have more common economic policy. :smitten:

[Furunculus]

But Sarkozy and Merkel ARE doing the right thing. They are opting for the bold move forward.

We are currently witnessing the long known problems that a common currency faces without common economic policy. The obvious way forward then is to have more common economic policy. :smitten:

doing the right thing would be either:
increasing the EFSF
or:
introducing eurobonds

what they achieved instead was an economic stable-door:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8705379/Angela-Merkel-and-Nicolas-Sarkozy-fail-to-calm-markets-despite-eurozone-concord.html
at the same time as:
turning eurozones periphery into satrapies of berlin

[Tellos Athenaios]

Meh. I agree with Louis that for the monetary union a much greater political integration is desirable or perhaps even necessary. However, I'd rather have such things decided through EP rather than two discredited/disappointing politico's with little hope of popular or other support. This is shot down before it even started, and as Adrian says it will take a lot of time to repair the damage these two just did, and have done for the past two years.

[Fragony]

Meh. I agree with Louis that for the fiscal union a much greater political integration is desirable or perhaps even necessary. However, I'd rather have such things decided through EP rather than two discredited/disappointing politico's with little hope of popular or other support. This is shot down before it even started, and as Adrian says it will take a lot of time to repair the damage these two just did, and have done for the past two years.

The damage that that bloated salsaboy and that Flemish ferret have done is pretty much beyond repair, economy is trust and trust means accountability and democracy. The EU will collapse and kthxbye.

[Furunculus]

Meh. I agree with Louis that for the monetary union a much greater political integration is desirable or perhaps even necessary.
fiscal and political union were always an inevitable necessity of a monetary union, there are no two ways about it, which is why we stayed out. who is going to tell the eurozone electorates that their nations are no longer states, and that the policy and spending regime they live under will now be directed towards the 'good' of the whole, and not their family and friends?

if consent is not sought, nor mandate achieved, then the eurozone has just ceased to be a representative democracy, remaining merely a 'democracy' (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_democracy#Elections_in_the_USSR).

remember those europhiles who rubbished the notion that monetary union would lead to political union.
"what fearful and small-minded chaps you are, to take fright at such will-o-wisps!" they scoffed.
who here was one of those?


However, I'd rather have such things decided through EP rather than two discredited/disappointing politico's with little hope of popular or other support.

at least they had some credibility to lose, the EP doesn't even have legitimacy owing to the lack of representation and accountability!

[Tellos Athenaios]

at least they had some credibility to lose, the EP doesn't even have legitimacy owing to the lack of representation and accountability!

That would be the same EP whose members were elected by their respective constituency (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament) with the explicit mandate of debating and deciding on the EU laws? As opposed to Sarkozy and Merkel whom might have authority in exactly 2 out of 27 such constituencies?

If your MEP is effectively appointed by your country go complain to Whitehall. Here, there are actual elections for what muppets we send to Brussels.

EDIT: If your point is simply that the EP is kind of invisible to the public eye then I guess so. One reason for that would be precisely such unilateral action on the part of various heads of state or their ministers. Since we're discussing the “right thing”, it's precisely the EP which we need to strengthen if we want accountability and democracy in the long term. Representatives of vaguely defined national interests is not “accountable” nor “democratic”, not when it comes to European-wide issues. Of course if you don't bother to vote when the elections are, that's your attitude to blame. You don't get excellence if you fail to pay attention.

[Furunculus]

the EP is not representative of any polity i recognise, and a grand majority of this country would agree.
the EP is not cared about by any kind of a majority, so its actions go unnoticed, which means it is effectively unaccountable to the electorate for its actions.

ergo; it has no legitimacy.

[Fragony]

the EP is not representative of any polity i recognise, and a grand majority of this country would agree.
the EP is not cared about by any kind of a majority, so its actions go unnoticed, which means it is effectively unaccountable to the electorate for its actions.

ergo; it has no legitimacy.

Indeed. None at all. Whatsoever.

[Tellos Athenaios]

the EP is not representative of any polity i recognise, and a grand majority of this country would agree.
the EP is not cared about by any kind of a majority, so its actions go unnoticed, which means it is effectively unaccountable to the electorate for its actions.

ergo; it has no legitimacy. Which is the problem to solve, rather than reason to discount it because you can't be bothered to read what you elect someone for. In other words: either you don't want the hassle of democracy and accountability on the part of the EP to the British public (among others) and would to leave (all) such decision making powers in the hands of your MP; or you want genuine democracy and accountability in which case the problem of “cannot be bothered to care” is quite frankly the real problem, and your complaints about lack of accountability or democracy really not their fault but your own of your own making.

For a flawed comparison: if all of the London rioters couldn't be bothered to care about property or people put in danger by their actions, that doesn't mean that the rest of the British public should accommodate this behaviour. The London rioters will be forced to pay the price for their irresponsibility, the same way yours already costs you when the German and French heads of state can effectively dictate the EU because for so long nobody could be bothered. :shrug:

[Adrian II]

I must say, I am starting to have very French thoughts about some politicians

Can I just point out: UK Conservatives were widely derided for being anti-Euro and decoupling from the Cntre-Right-pro-Euro Bloc in the EU Parliament.

This Emperor never had any clothes, but despite lots of people saying so no one listened.

I'm not anti-EU, just anti-euro-in-its-present-form. And I'm not anti-politics like IA either, I think that's a dead end.

Constitutionally guaranteed budget limits as per Merkel/Sarkozy require either elections or a referendum in each eurozone country, so yes, we're all going to have a vote about this.

AII

[Kagemusha]

I dont agree with either side concerning Euro. No we do not need further political integration for Euro to work and no we do not have the need to dissolve euro. What we need to do is something anyone pass their puberty should understand. Obey the rules of Euro or prepare to be kicked out.

While other EU countries are dumbing money to Greece with no guarantees.Our government made a nice deal on tuesday:

http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Finland+and+Greece+agree+on+bailout+terms/1135268607718

Finland is guaranteeing atleast EUR 1.4 billion of Greek debt in exchance Greece is paying atleast half a billion to Finland as cash guarantees.Then Finland will invest that half a billion back to low-risk state bonds, so if Greece cant pay back their debt Finland will get its own money back, if they do.We make profit. I guess we are bit evil. :P

[Furunculus]

the problem of “cannot be bothered to care” is quite frankly the real problem, and your complaints about lack of accountability or democracy really not their fault but your own of your own making.

for sure.

but when i am joined by the vast majority of my countrymen in the toxic mixture of apathy and contempt it is no longer my problem, it is the EU's problem.

because people don't consider the EU representative, and thus do not consent for it to govern in my name, people are not interested in its dealings.
because people are uninterested in the EU's dealing those dealings pass by with scrutiny, and thus it remains unaccountable.

i have a government that i recognise as both representative and accountable, it sits in westminster, what use do i have for a federal government in brussels?

end of.

[Adrian II]

I dont agree with either side concerning Euro. No we do not need further political integration for Euro to work and no we do not have the need to dissolve euro. What we need to do is something anyone pass their puberty should understand. Obey the rules of Euro or prepare to be kicked out.

While other EU countries are dumbing money to Greece with no guarantees.Our government made a nice deal on tuesday:

http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Finland+and+Greece+agree+on+bailout+terms/1135268607718

Finland is guaranteeing atleast EUR 1.4 billion of Greek debt in exchance Greece is paying atleast half a billion to Finland as cash guarantees.Then Finland will invest that half a billion back to low-risk state bonds, so if Greece cant pay back their debt Finland will get its own money back, if they do.We make profit. I guess we are bit evil. :P

All countries lending money to Greece are making a profit. We sell Dutch bonds on the market at 2,5 % and use the money to buy Greek bonds at 9% or something in that order.

AII

[Kagemusha]

All countries lending money to Greece are making a profit. We sell Dutch bonds on the market at 2,5 % and use the money to buy Greek bonds at 9% or something in that order.

AII

Yes but we are the only ones getting direct cash from Greece.If the Greek bonds dive further.You will not be getting anything.Just read the article.

[gaelic cowboy]

Yes but we are the only ones getting direct cash from Greece.If the Greek bonds dive further.You will not be getting anything.Just read the article.

But is this not a bilateral loan like the UK-Ireland so different terms apply, your still on the hook for all the bailout money you pledged to the various funds already.

[Kagemusha]

But is this not a bilateral loan like the UK-Ireland so different terms apply, your still on the hook for all the bailout money you pledged to the various funds already.

I am now only talking about the latest arrangement. Before the current situation the initial premise was that Greece would be able to pay their debts. In my opinion that is more or less money lost already.
While other Euro Nations are continuing with that hope.With this arrangement, Finland is securing that no matter if Greece can pay or not.We will not be dumbing any further money on them without direct guarantees.

[gaelic cowboy]

I am now only talking about the latest arrangement. Before the current situation the initial premise was that Greece would be able to pay their debts. In my opinion that is more or less money lost already.
While other Euro Nations are continuing with that hope.With this arrangement, Finland is securing that no matter if Greece can pay or not.We will not be dumbing any further money on them without direct guarantees.

But if it's gone why give them more?? what this actually says is Finland thinks Germany will pay any price and so Finland can get away with a bit of profit taking.

In effect your politicians believe the bailout money will be paid, I must say you and me are agreed though the knockout/bailout money is toast.

[Kagemusha]

But if it's gone why give them more?? what this actually says is Finland thinks Germany will pay any price and so Finland can get away with a bit of profit taking.

In effect your politicians believe the bailout money will be paid, I must say you and me are agreed though the knockout/bailout money is toast.

No it does not necessarily say that. Essentially what this deal is about is that Greece is paying in cash about 40% what we are guarateeing of their debt. This money will be invested by Finland.Nothing says in the agreement that it will be invested into Greek bonds.It might be invested for example to German bonds, but the bottom line is that the 40% of the total sum as guarantee enables for Finland to get our money back through low risk investments in any case.

[gaelic cowboy]

No it does not necessarily say that. Essentially what this deal is about is that Greece is paying in cash about 40% what we are guarateeing of their debt. This money will be invested by Finland.Nothing says in the agreement that it will be invested into Greek bonds.It might be invested for example to German bonds, but the bottom line is that the 40% of the total sum as guarantee enables for Finland to get our money back through low risk investments in any case.

Yes I understand that but Greece would have a hard time paying up if the bailout fails, the government most likely thinks it wont happen and the deal is a sop to the electorate really of Finland.

[Kagemusha]

Yes I understand that but Greece would have a hard time paying up if the bailout fails, the government most likely thinks it wont happen and the deal is a sop to the electorate really of Finland.

Well as said in the article Greece have to pay the guarantee or Finland will not guarantee their debt, so the pay up has to be imminent. A guarantee paid afterwards is no guarantee at all.

[gaelic cowboy]

Another reason to dislike the Euro (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?137474-Deus-Ex-Human-Revolution-region-locked)

I now cannot buy Deus Ex Human Revolution from my local highstreet shop(which are generally UK based retailers) because were lumped in with Europe under the region locking included in this game.

[Adrian II]

Another reason to dislike the Euro (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?137474-Deus-Ex-Human-Revolution-region-locked)

I now cannot buy Deus Ex Human Revolution from my local highstreet shop(which are generally UK based retailers) because were lumped in with Europe under the region locking included in this game.

What's that got to do with the euro?

AII

[gaelic cowboy]

What's that got to do with the euro?

AII

Stop with your facts Mr Gradgrind (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gradgrind)

[Adrian II]

Stop with your facts Mr Gradgrind (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gradgrind)

You just mustn't fancy, Gaelic Cowboy. Never to fancy!

Fact, fact, fact!

AII

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I'm not anti-EU, just anti-euro-in-its-present-form. And I'm not anti-politics like IA either, I think that's a dead end.

Constitutionally guaranteed budget limits as per Merkel/Sarkozy require either elections or a referendum in each eurozone country, so yes, we're all going to have a vote about this.

AII

I'm not "anti" EU, but the institution is corrupt, and therefore I oppose its rule over me.

[Adrian II]

the institution is corrupt

So is your own government. Corruption is all the rage these days, it is not particular to the EU.

The EU and its powers were created by consent of the member states. Not one EU member state has sought to opt out of it yet. The EU has brought us peace and prosperity.

It has huge flaws, of course. These reflect the flaws in our own governing castes, nothing more, nothing less.

AII

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

So is your own government. Corruption is all the rage these days, it is not particular to the EU.

The EU and its powers were created by consent of the member states. Not one EU member state has sought to opt out of it yet. The EU has brought us peace and prosperity.

It has huge flaws, of course. These reflect the flaws in our own governing castes, nothing more, nothing less.

AII

I do not believe the EU has brought us peace and prosperity, it has been allowed to exist because of peace and prosperity. The EU is beginning to unravel now and populism and nationalism are rising because of the fall in prosperity.

As to "consent", the UK consented to a free trade block, and no party in the UK (before UKIP) campaigned on an anti-EU ticket since, we have not had any alternatives.

[Furunculus]

So is your own government. Corruption is all the rage these days, it is not particular to the EU.


quite, but it is neither representitive of, or accountable to, me.

[Adrian II]

@ Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla. So you seriously believe that a single market with one set of rules to which 27 countries with 497 million consumers subscribe does not bring additional prosperity?

@ Furunculus. The EU represents you and is accountable to you. It's just that there are 497 million more citizens and they don't all happen to agree with Furunculus.

Why do these things need explaining? I blame it on modern education.

AII

[InsaneApache]

I'm not anti-EU, just anti-euro-in-its-present-form. And I'm not anti-politics like IA either, I think that's a dead end.

Constitutionally guaranteed budget limits as per Merkel/Sarkozy require either elections or a referendum in each eurozone country, so yes, we're all going to have a vote about this.

AII

I'm not anti-politics per se but I am anti this current generation of politicians. They know nothing. Like Manuel. They go up to Ox-Bridge and do a piss poor PPE and then go and get a job in whatever political party will have them. After all Ted Scrotum was a young consevative at uni.

Then they charge us for the priviledge of them passing another set of piss-poor, ill thought out laws that just don't match with reality in the real world. Parasitic scum. One or two exception I admit. In the main chiselers and skulking loafers in it for themselves.

[Adrian II]

I'm not anti-politics per se but I am anti this current generation of politicians. They know nothing. Like Manuel. They go up to Ox-Bridge and do a piss poor PPE and then go and get a job in whatever political party will have them. After all Ted Scrotum was a young consevative at uni.

Then they charge us for the priviledge of them passing another set of piss-poor, ill thought out laws that just don't match with reality in the real world. Parasitic scum. One or two exception I admit. In the main chiselers and skulking loafers in it for themselves.

Well, you are certainly on to something. We haven't seen the last episode of moral decay in the West yet, only it isn't just politicians who stink. And not just Manuel and his Brussels posse either.

Allow me to leave you with a rumination from today's Telegraph that illustrates our common concern:


As the US economist Paul Krugman observed this week, American and European leaders sometimes seem to be engaged in a contest to see who can make the worst of a bad situation. The recent suggestion by Rick Perry, the Republican presidential hopeful, that Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke should be roughed up and put on trial for treason, suggested that the US might still be in with a chance in this race to the bottom. Yet, despite the willingness of America’s political class to put naked self-interest before national economic wellbeing, they will always struggle to match Europe in the bad policy stakes.

AII

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

@ Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla. So you seriously believe that a single market with one set of rules to which 27 countries with 497 million consumers subscribe does not bring additional prosperity?

Additional prosperity is different to "peace and prosperity", which I believe we would have had without the EU, certain countries have also benifitted more than others. Britain has notably suffered because of the CAP and the Fisheries policy. In any case, as I said, Britons voted in favour of a Common market and have not had a say since. We should have had a referendum on EU membership when we became EU "citizens" and got EU passports, but we didn't.

The assumption that the British people are better off not being allowed to express their deep-seated Euroscrepticism through Referenda is anti-democratic. Nor is the EU parliament anything other than an irrelevence, power rests with the Commission - everyone knows this - and that is why political parties send their novices and cranks to Europe to get rid of them/weather them. People don't go "up" to Europe in the UK they come "down" to it and them back "up" to london when they are allowed to be serious politicians.

[Furunculus]

@ Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla. So you seriously believe that a single market with one set of rules to which 27 countries with 497 million consumers subscribe does not bring additional prosperity?

@ Furunculus. The EU represents you and is accountable to you. It's just that there are 497 million more citizens and they don't all happen to agree with Furunculus.

Why do these things need explaining? I blame it on modern education.

AII

because you treat politics as a logical, dry and intellectual exercise, whereas i see it as a visceral and fractious argument over who you identify with, and thus who you are willing to compromise with.

[Adrian II]

because you treat politics as a logical, dry and intellectual exercise, whereas i see it as a visceral and fractious argument over who you identify with, and thus who you are willing to compromise with.

You can always move to the Balkans then.

AII

[Brenus]

"You can always move to the Balkans then." Not before I buy my house near the Danube, thanks. Have to keep the price down and avoid the Croatian Coast (cost) syndrome...

[Furunculus]

You can always move to the Balkans then.

AII

no thanks, i get my fill from our wonderful adversarial winner-takes-all system of politics right here in britain.

a federal brussels has NOTHING to offer me.

[Fragony]

"You can always move to the Balkans then." Not before I buy my house near the Danube, thanks. Have to keep the price down and avoid the Croatian Coast (cost) syndrome...

With the Croation syndrome I mostly think about 9/10 women being born as a supermodel. It's madness.

[gaelic cowboy]

Resilient Ireland plays cards right to ensure happy ending (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/resilient-ireland-plays-cards-right-to-ensure-happy-ending-2850971.html)


The highly respected Financial Times yesterday hailed many positive economic indicators emerging in Ireland's favour, explaining how hard-earned progress to date could be a trump card in transforming our fortunes, and those of the Eurozone

By David Vines and Max Watson

Thursday August 18 2011

Markets and rating agencies, not to mention academics, often make egregious errors in judging country risk. All too often this is by failing to notice a change in macroeconomic fundamentals that really does matter. As the crisis moves through its nadir, one major error is almost certainly the market assessment of Ireland's public debt.

As a group, the troubled periphery economies have faced three challenges: achieving a leap in competitiveness that will restore growth; convincing markets that public debt is on a sustainable track; and normalising the access of banking systems to market funding. These three challenges have become inextricably linked. In Greece, deep-rooted fiscal problems have infected the financial system. In Ireland a banking debacle has swollen public debt. And without strong competitiveness to relaunch growth, this aggregate debt dynamics story can have no happy ending at all.

So the first and most important thing about Ireland is that it is swiftly restoring its competitive edge. Indeed it is moving rapidly towards a sizeable current account surplus -- in a range of 3pc to 4pc of gross domestic product. Of course, recession has also played a role in turning external accounts around, but a steady uptrend in exports has been under way for some time.

The second element is that Ireland's net public debt will probably peak at somewhere around 110pc of GDP. This is a steep challenge; but it is a magnitude that Ireland, among other advanced countries, has shown to be entirely scalable in the past. It is increasingly clear, too, that Ireland does not need to borrow from markets until 2014: that is the sort of borrower that markets can relearn to love.

The third issue is Ireland's banking saga. The Achilles heel of the economy lay in bad bank governance and supervision, and a subsequent hard landing that neither the authorities nor the International Monetary Fund saw coming. But today there is a growing recognition that this corner has been turned. Steps were finally taken at the end of March to cauterise the problem with recapitalisation based on a tough set of stress tests; and a sharp division of core from non-core assets in the two "pillar" banks that are left. The recent success in keeping Bank of Ireland in private hands is also a major psychological boost.

Fundamentally, Ireland is also displaying an admirable social resilience. It takes little knowledge of history to place this in a perspective that has already seen the economy weather four dreadful economic crises in less than a century. It matters too that emigration has yet again helped to contain unemployment to some degree -- even though, at 14pc, it is worryingly high.

As a result of all this, growth is starting to re-emerge, even though domestic demand is still contracting. As expansion accelerates, it will generate jobs only slowly. But with the speed and slope of correction in competitiveness that is under way, the feed-through to domestic demand and job creation will come. And over the next few years a socially more sustainable balance to the recovery will also end up swelling the tax base more strongly than the present pattern of export-led growth. For the pressured taxpayer, there is a glimmer at the end of the tunnel.

We are highly conscious of the contagion risks posed to Ireland by further bond market or banking shocks elsewhere in the eurozone, or by any setback in world trade. And no one can ignore the political challenge of keeping Ireland ahead of the Troika's targets. It also has to be stressed that we are assuming firm persistence in the course of fiscal consolidation. This said, we do believe that Ireland's macroeconomic fundamentals provide the most important defence there can be against all forms of shock.

Perhaps most important of all, an Irish success story of the kind we think is under way will come to be seen as a precious and crucial trump card for the eurozone debt strategy. It gives the lie to fears about a generalised transfer union. And it illustrates that adjustment in the eurozone is feasible, just as currency board countries in the Baltics have wrongfooted the diehard pessimists.

In short, when we look at Ireland against sovereign spreads in the eurozone, we see a mismatch. Either markets are persuaded that economic policies can never defeat contagion, or understandably -- given pervasive crisis fatigue -- they have dropped off to sleep at the wheel.

The writers are a professor of economics and a fellow of Wolfson College at Oxford University

- David Vines and Max Watson

Irish Independent



Taking the pain early has shown Ireland to be quicker and more courageous than most in adapting to economic adversity, writes Economics Editor Brendan Keenan (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/taking-the-pain-early-has-shown-ireland-to-be-quicker-and-more-courageous-than-most-in-adapting-to-economic-adversity-writes-economics-editor-brendan-keenan-2851024.html)


AT last, someone has noticed, even if they are foreigners. Or perhaps it is because they are foreigners.

One does not have to share all the optimism about the future of the Irish economy contained in the 'Financial Times' article by David Vines and Max Watson. Many Irish economists would quibble with the modest ceiling they put on Irish debt or their view that the corner has been fully turned in the banking crisis.

But Professor Vines and Mr Watson -- the latter helped draw up reports on the Irish banks and sits on the new Central Bank commission -- are right to say that Ireland is different from the other two rescued economies, Greece and Portugal: different, indeed, from the rest of the eurozone.

The difference is the speed with which Ireland is reducing its costs. New figures from the European statistics service yesterday show once again that Ireland has not only the lowest inflation in the 17-nation eurozone but that it is in a category all of its own.

This has been the pattern since the crash. It is calculated that the difference in inflation means that half the extra increase in Irish prices since the euro was launched in 1999 has now been eliminated.

This is exactly what markets fear Greece and Portugal -- and perhaps Spain and Italy -- cannot do. They are held back, not just by the need for austerity to reduce debt, but by not being able to compete with Germany and its satellite economies.

Ireland's remarkable deflation may well eventually restore investor confidence, but it is a short-term headache for the Government. Debt is measured against the money ('nominal') value of the economy and low inflation holds that back, making it harder to achieve deficit targets.

As the table shows, although the Irish economy grew only slightly less than that of Britain, rampant inflation gave the UK nominal growth of almost 5pc, while Ireland's was just 1pc.

The second headache for the Government is that to concentrate on competitiveness means minimising extra costs for business or consumers.

Better to cut their incomes instead, whether through lower pay or higher taxes.

Good economics maybe, but lousy politics.

Irish Independent


Please god let this be true, but I have to say we have been here before :book: and it did not end good.





Global stocks plummet on new recession fears (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0818/markets.html)


Global stock markets have fallen sharply, with the Dow Jones dropping over 500 points shortly after opening amid new doubts about the world economic outlook. Global shares have fallen sharply, with the Dow Jones dropping over 500 points shortly after opening and sharp falls also seen on European stock markets.

Dublin's ISEQ index was down 111.58 points (4.4%) to 2454.64 at the close this evening.

London's FTSE closed down 4.49%. Germany's Dax was down 5.5% to 5,628 points, while the Paris CAC dropped 5.48%.

This afternoon Morgan Stanley said its new forecasts showed the United States and the eurozone 'hovering dangerously close to recession.'

The bank cut its 2011 global growth outlook to 3.9% from 4.2%, and the 2012 forecast to 3.8% from 4.5%.

Once again, aversion to risk swept the financial markets, with corporate bonds, industrial commodities and higher-yielding currencies sliding.

Assets viewed as safe-havens - such as gold, government bonds and the dollar - have all gained. Gold rose to its second record high in a week - $1,826 - this afternoon.

The sell-off 'is rooted in the European banking system,' said Jack de Gan, chief investment officer at Harbor Advisory Corp.

'It reflects continued concern that sovereign debt issues indicate we're going to have to bail out all those banks again. And if there's stress in major European banks, it will affect US banks too.

Banking stocks in Paris were particularly hard hit, with BNP Paribas off 8.24%, Credit Agricole down 9.0% and Societe Generale lost more than 12%.

Meanwhile, this week's fresh plans to tackle the eurozone debt crisis have clearly failed to win over investors, who brushed off Tuesday's summit meeting between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Traders also dismissed the pair's proposal for a Europe-wide tax on financial transactions as 'old hat,' likely to be ineffective at best and at worst driving business out of Europe into other centres.

Asian stock markets slid earlier today, with Tokyo down 1.25% to record its lowest finish since March 15 - four days after it was hit by an earthquake and tsunami that spiralled into a nuclear disaster.

Yea I knew it was too good to be true :no:

[Furunculus]

good news for ireland.

-----------------------

now, who was it that was mocking me for saying that the european banking sector was about to take a hammering...........? step forward, there's a brave boy. :)

[Adrian II]

now, who was it that was mocking me for saying that the european banking sector was about to take a hammering...........? step forward, there's a brave boy. :)

Having trouble with the facts again, Furunculus? You predicted that banks failing the stresstest would be clobbered, which they weren't. That's all there was to it.

While you're at it, you may want to answer my question re Germany and fiscal optimum?

AII

[Furunculus]

Having trouble with the facts again, Furunculus? You predicted that banks failing the stresstest would be clobbered, which they weren't. That's all there was to it.

While you're at it, you may want to answer my question re Germany and fiscal optimum?

AII

au-contraire; i considered that the stress-tests would likely, once again, be considered worthless, and that once this was confirmed that euro banks would take a clobbering. the tests being intended to 'demonstrate' the fundamental health of the european banking system in the face of new shocks.

run the graph from the 18th July to the 18th of August, watch the drop:
http://www.stoxx.com/indices/index_information.html?symbol=SXXP

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/holcim-and-boskalis-lead-sharp-drop-for-europe-2011-08-18

“Banking stocks have been decimated across Europe, with indiscriminate selling even in banks that maintain their exposure to the crisis is slim,” said Will Hedden, sales trader at IG Markets. “No sector is surviving this tidal wave of selling, and the fact that financials are first in the firing line will only lend support to the anti-short-selling-ban camp.”

what was you question about the german fiscal optimum?

[Adrian II]

run the graph from the 18th July to the 18th of August, watch the drop:
http://www.stoxx.com/indices/index_information.html?symbol=SXXP

My dear boy, the stress test findings were published on July 15th and the drop only started August 2nd. The latter has obviously had nothing whatsoever to do with the former. Intervening trends and occurrences such as the US debt limit circus or the ECB interventions in Spain and Portugal are more likely candidates, wouldn't you say?


what was you question about the german fiscal optimum?

You said 37% aggregate tax -> optimal growth

I say German aggregate tax = more like 50% -> superior growth

AII

[gaelic cowboy]

My dear boy, the stress test findings were published on July 15th and the drop only started August 2nd. The latter has obviously had nothing whatsoever to do with the former. Intervening trends and occurrences such as the US debt limit circus or the ECB interventions in Spain and Portugal are more likely candidates, wouldn't you say?



You said 37% aggregate tax -> optimal growth

I say German aggregate tax = more like 50% -> superior growth

AII

Tax has nothing to do with German growth though does it?? Germany takes a big interest in ensuring the export environment is suited to it's companies.

They specifically disincentivise certain parts of the economy to ensure manufacturing over services and consumption.

[Furunculus]

My dear boy, the stress test findings were published on July 15th and the drop only started August 2nd. The latter has obviously had nothing whatsoever to do with the former. Intervening trends and occurrences such as the US debt limit circus or the ECB interventions in Spain and Portugal are more likely candidates, wouldn't you say?

they would be the shocks i was talking about, and yes they are part of the decline.


You said 37% aggregate tax -> optimal growth

I say German aggregate tax = more like 50% -> superior growth

AII

i have seen nothing to indicate that that would be true, given the three papers i linked.

[Adrian II]

they would be the shocks i was talking about, and yes they are part of the decline.

The stress clearly test wasn't a shock to anyone, anywhere. Nor was it a relief. It was just a useless exercise, can we at least agree on that?

As for the tax issue, it's too complicated for poor old AII to go into all of that right now. There may well be an optimum tax level per country, but it would vary according to the specifics of each economy. Putting it at 37% is fetishism.

Generally speaking tax computations fail to take into account the medium and long term effects of specific taxes. A prime example would be a punitive tax on fuel which hampers growth in the short term but forces industry to innovate and find new energy sources and technologies, thus stimulating growth in the longer term.

AII

[Kagemusha]

It would seem half of the Euro countries have joined Finland in demanding cash guarantees from Greece, while Merkel and Sarkozy dream of "eurobonds". I cant understand what dream world the leaders of largest euro countries are living in? If the economies of Southern and Northern Europe have so different level of strength, how can they think that the North should just give everything up they have achieved with hard work, so the South can live as they please.

Cant we just have a monetary Union without some delusional dreams of Federal State, when it is clear that majority of people in most European countries dont want that?

[gaelic cowboy]

It would seem half of the Euro countries have joined Finland in demanding cash guarantees from Greece, while Merkel and Sarkozy dream of "eurobonds". I cant understand what dream world the leaders of largest euro countries are living in? If the economies of Southern and Northern Europe have so different level of strength, how can they think that the North should just give everything up they have achieved with hard work, so the South can live as they please.

Cant we just have a monetary Union without some delusional dreams of Federal State, when it is clear that majority of people in most European countries dont want that?

Not really man the problem is that countries without there own currency are being attacked/shrewdly bet against and cannot use the usual means of preventing this problem Inflation/Devaluation.

In effect the markets have quite rightly found that internal devaluation ie reduction of living standards or implementation of austerity does not work in a currency union hence the bailouts.

The bondmarkets and interbank lending is forcing the ECB to act more like a normal central bank and less like it has up to now, hence the buying of bonds and the extension of liquidity to weak banks.

Unfortunately the more it acts like a proper central bank the less people in the North like it.

[Fragony]

It would seem half of the Euro countries have joined Finland in demanding cash guarantees from Greece, while Merkel and Sarkozy dream of "eurobonds". I cant understand what dream world the leaders of largest euro countries are living in? If the economies of Southern and Northern Europe have so different level of strength, how can they think that the North should just give everything up they have achieved with hard work, so the South can live as they please.

Cant we just have a monetary Union without some delusional dreams of Federal State, when it is clear that majority of people in most European countries dont want that?

A north and south would be lovely, and we bail out the Irish because the Irish are sympathetic

[gaelic cowboy]

If you ask me there are several possible solutions to the problem of not having a nice even Euro.

1 Divide the North and South.
2 Unshackle the ECB
3 Integrate fully (not the new Sarkozy/Merkel fuzzy announcement I mean a federal state)
4 Eurobonds

To be honest option one is the best really in my view but it would prob take maybe 5 to 10 years in order to not cause a major flight of capital out of the Eurozone.

What there doing is trying to convince people in the South to accept lower everything along with higher inflation which balances the equation as a whole (Great for Germans the pressure is off them, not so great for Southern workers or there unemployed hence the rioting)

The only reason Ireland is bucking the trend is because we have reduced our costs of doing business, we have low inflation and it's getting lower plus were exporting a lot outside the Eurozone
We still however owe a lot due to the bailout which limits our growth potential due to austerity, Spain Italy Greece and Portugal have none of the things to be hopeful about that I stated are present in the Irish economy and all of the same bad ones.

Also it helps when your population is highly mobile and also crucially young enough still to relocate both internally and abroad.

[Fragony]

You are the expert Gaelic Cowboy, why not introduce a second currency, no garlic allowed

[gaelic cowboy]

You are the expert Gaelic Cowboy, why not introduce a second currency, no garlic allowed

To be honest I think they will continue to prevaricate until the Euro explodes, if they ignore the problems for long enough there is no reason to think Germany itself cannot be affected.

[Louis VI the Fat]

* uses sign language with the recent arrival from the Guangzhou hinterland, points at number three on the menu *




Louis - and make it non-spicy and with ketchup, please.

[gaelic cowboy]

* uses sign language with the recent arrival from the Guangzhou hinterland, points at number three on the menu *




Louis - and make it non-spicy and with ketchup, please.

Sorry were out stock

[Louis VI the Fat]

Sorry were out stockWhen it comes to the EU, I don't take 'no' for an answer from any Irish. :stare:



Louis - brutalising naysayers into submission since 2007

[gaelic cowboy]

When it comes to the EU, I don't take 'no' for an answer from any Irish. :stare:



Louis - brutalising naysayers into submission since 2007



Third times a charm Louis
Nice= NO
Lisbon = No
MerKozy Plan = ?hell no the people are mad and there gonna express that annoyance at the ballot, plus they will be worried at losing even more sovereignty.

If they water the plan down then it wont be doable, the debt limit will be dropped and the new idea is merely as toothless as the old stability and growth pact.

[Kagemusha]

Why are they so bloody greedy? Europe is huge. If they want an successful integration.Why not start with smaller regional Unions? Such might actually get even some democratic support. The leaders are constantly trying to bite more they can chew and Louis fear of Chinese i doubt is enough to drive Europeans into integration frenzy.:laugh4:

[Adrian II]

Yes but we are the only ones getting direct cash from Greece.If the Greek bonds dive further.You will not be getting anything.Just read the article.

The Dutch PM and Finance Minister deny that there is such a Finnish-Greek deal. Well, is it official or not?

According to The Hague any such deal would (1) apply to all EU eurozone members lending money to Greece and (2) require approval from the other eurozone members.

So, what's up Helsinki-side?

AII

[Tellos Athenaios]

I take the words of the Dutch PM and Finance clowns with a grain of salt. Especially when they contradict a deal they had nothing to do with, when they actually contradict the people who supposedly did sign off on it.

[Adrian II]

I take the words of the Dutch PM and Finance clowns with a grain of salt. Especially when they contradict a deal they had nothing to do with, when they actually contradict the people who supposedly did sign off on it.

That's why I'm asking. Those two ****brains don't have a clue.

AII

[Brenus]

When you divide between North and South, where do you put France?

[Tellos Athenaios]

When you divide between North and South, where do you put France?

In many ways, France is quite on the other side of any kind of divide. From the way it handles worker protests to the bigger than life qualities in the person of Mr. Sarkozy to the language and cultural divide to a certain flair and attention to detail whilst neglecting the overall state of maintenance (i.e. beautiful, well kept flower beds on roundabouts or besides pavements, in towns full of dilapidated buildings and patchy road works).

In other ways, Mr. Sarkozy and the French élite will probably convince themselves that even if they do not have Germany's economic weight they are in some sort of leadership position which compels him -whatever it is about- to be “on the forefront” if it concerns “Europe”. So wherever we might draw any divide, France will end up included anyway.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If you ask me there are several possible solutions to the problem of not having a nice even Euro.

1 Divide the North and South.
2 Unshackle the ECB
3 Integrate fully (not the new Sarkozy/Merkel fuzzy announcement I mean a federal state)
4 Eurobonds

To be honest option one is the best really in my view but it would prob take maybe 5 to 10 years in order to not cause a major flight of capital out of the Eurozone.

What there doing is trying to convince people in the South to accept lower everything along with higher inflation which balances the equation as a whole (Great for Germans the pressure is off them, not so great for Southern workers or there unemployed hence the rioting)

The only reason Ireland is bucking the trend is because we have reduced our costs of doing business, we have low inflation and it's getting lower plus were exporting a lot outside the Eurozone
We still however owe a lot due to the bailout which limits our growth potential due to austerity, Spain Italy Greece and Portugal have none of the things to be hopeful about that I stated are present in the Irish economy and all of the same bad ones.

Also it helps when your population is highly mobile and also crucially young enough still to relocate both internally and abroad.

So gaelic, do you think that if Ireland had not accepted a bailout, and the attendant millstone, it would now need one?

I wonder myself.


When you divide between North and South, where do you put France?

cut the country in half, same with Italy, people keep telling us we need more federalism in the UK, what's good for the Briton is good for the European.

[gaelic cowboy]

So gaelic, do you think that if Ireland had not accepted a bailout, and the attendant millstone, it would now need one?

I wonder myself.

We cant know for sure, but it could have been done.

The garauntee was only started because there was a potential run on Anglo threatening the whole system, it was supposed to end in the back end of 2010.

The back end of 2010 was when the ECB started there funny business with our banks, once they got us bailedin they extended the bailout and refused haircuts.

The way I see it after the garauntee would have lapsed, the Irish banks would have failed burning banks all over Europe. Bank failure in Ireland has consequences however we cannot foresee, my guess is that even France and Germany could have been badly hurt in a Lehmans style credit crunch

SO it depends on what your more afraid of either bailing us out or scalping bondholders.

[Kagemusha]

The Dutch PM and Finance Minister deny that there is such a Finnish-Greek deal. Well, is it official or not?

According to The Hague any such deal would (1) apply to all EU eurozone members lending money to Greece and (2) require approval from the other eurozone members.

So, what's up Helsinki-side?

AII

It is telling that Euro media is not even putting it out,our financial minister Jutta Urpilainen put it out on tuesday like i di..The question is why is this not in bbc or deutchewelle, nor le monde

[Louis VI the Fat]

It is telling that Euro media is not even putting it out,our financial minister Jutta Urpilainen put it out on tuesday like i di..The question is why is this not in bbc or deutchewelle, nor le mondeI'm sure the Finnish-Greek deal will receive due attention in Le Monde once it has explained to its readers what a Finland is. http://matousmileys.free.fr/wink2.gif




Louis - almost an anagram of Suomi

[Fragony]

When you divide between North and South, where do you put France?

Somehere safe hopefully

@ teh paddie, what if we keep the euro as a coin to pay for a bread, and reintroduce the Deutsche Mark or the Dutch guilder for business in the Northen regions. Either would be solid trustwise, euro would probably drop, making export from the south worth the trouble again. We'll have a north and south without anyone getting all that hurt no?

disclaimer: I am economically challenged. or generally really

[Furunculus]

There may well be an optimum tax level per country, but it would vary according to the specifics of each economy.

Putting it at 37% is fetishism.

Very much agreed.

No, having taxation at a level no higher than 37% of GDP when the economy is at the top of the cycle is what I demand and expect my political representatives to implement, because I do not hold to notions prevalent in other societies that encourage a greater personal sacrifice for the community good. There is nothing wrong with a society taking that view, but it ain't mine and it ain't British. We have never been a social-democracy in the continental sense, and much as some people in Britain might wish it otherwise there have never been enough of them to change society as a whole. As i noted back on page 16:

the laffer curve is as relevant today as the day it was invented, but importantly, it is merely a bell-curve and not a cliff-edge and therefore it is up to society to determine at which point along the bell-curve they want to sit, with all the attendant benefits and problems that brings.

p.s. i ran the graph from the eighteenth because they 'cunningly' announced the stress tests after the markets closed on the 15th.............. a friday.

[Sarmatian]

Somehere safe hopefully

@ teh paddie, what if we keep the euro as a coin to pay for a bread, and reintroduce the Deutsche Mark or the Dutch guilder for business in the Northen regions. Either would be solid trustwise, euro would probably drop, making export from the south worth the trouble again. We'll have a north and south without anyone getting all that hurt no?

disclaimer: I am economically challenged. or generally really

Unfortunately, this crisis isn't about the euro and it wouldn't simply disappear even if manage to magically make an instant and perfect transition to old national currencies.

Let's say Greece reintroduces the drachma, what would happen? Total economic collapse. Greece isn't an exporting nation and cheaper Greek products abroad wouldn't help Greek economy to balance it out. At the same time, rampant inflation would make it impossible to make any long-term plans. Who would invest drachmas in Greek bonds with drachmas losing worth daily? You bought bonds worth a 1000 euros and two weeks later your bonds are worth 200 euros.

Also, the notion that crisis in the southern Europe wouldn't affect northern Europe if national currencies still existed runs contrary to logic. European economies are so interconnected that slowing down of Italian and Spanish economies would certainly be felt, pesetas and liras or euros.

Another thing thrown around here is that you can not have single currency if you don't have same level of development -> bollox. Do you think that GDP of American states are equal? California 2 trillion and Wyoming 38 billion. GDP per capita varies between around 70.000 (Delaware) and 35.000 (South Carolina), if we discount District of Columbia which has 170.000. Tax levels are also not the same across the United States. By contrast, difference for GDP per capita between EU states is 32.000 (Netherlands) and 11.000 (Romania (which isn't even in the EMU)), if we discount Luxembourg which has 70.000. Not such a big difference compared to US, is it? And if use only EMU countries, the difference is even smaller.

So, Euro is not the problem and it never was. The story is used now by Eurosceptics looking for a cheap argument because it's easier to blame the Euro than to explain what's happening to the electorate. Why should Germans and French spend their money to bail out Greece? Because it is their investment. They hold most of the debt - if Greece defaults, that deficit moves from Greek to their economies.

[Furunculus]

Another thing thrown around here is that you can not have single currency if you don't have same level of development -> bollox. Do you think that GDP of American states are equal? California 2 trillion and Wyoming 38 billion. GDP per capita varies between around 70.000 (Delaware) and 35.000 (South Carolina), if we discount District of Columbia which has 170.000. Tax levels are also not the same across the United States. By contrast, difference for GDP per capita between EU states is 32.000 (Netherlands) and 11.000 (Romania (which isn't even in the EMU)), if we discount Luxembourg which has 70.000. Not such a big difference compared to US, is it? And if use only EMU countries, the difference is even smaller.

you rather miss the point re the disparity in development/wealth.

of course you can have different levels, but only provided you increase the wealth transfer from rich to poor in an attempt to iron out the inequalities in relative wealth. this novel concept is called a transfer-union, and is the fundamental characteristic of every responsible nation-state in existence today; the rich helping to advance the condition of the poor.

now, there is no reason why the EU could not be the same as part of a grand federal union............................ but you do have to be pretty sure that one 'region' has a sufficiently close sense of familial kinship with another 'region' that subsidizing their lifestyle on an ongoing basis is acceptable.

if it isn't, then you will be marching towards exactly the kind of the civic strife that the EU was supposed to banish.

the german's know all about the principle of openly and visibly subsidizing a group of people on an enduring basis, because ever since reunification west germans have paid 10 billion euros's a year in a solidarity tax to speed the development of the former GDR. but that is ok, they are germans so all is good in the world.

where things get a little sticky is when it come to the eurozone crisis however.

one way out of the crisis is eurobonds, however a german economic think-tank has calculated that german government borrowing will cost up to 40 billion euro's a year more under this regime because euro-bonds mean accepting the default risk of southern europe averaged out against that of out thrifty teutons, and that is four times the amount of the solidarity tax, every year, indefinitely.

now my question is this; just how close a sense of familial kinship does Herman Von-Deepockets feel with Miguel Loadzawonga?

If there isn't enough, then you can't have your economic and political union............... at least not in a representative democracy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_democracy#Elections_in_the_USSR).

Is is that simple!

[gaelic cowboy]

Unfortunately, this crisis isn't about the euro and it wouldn't simply disappear even if manage to magically make an instant and perfect transition to old national currencies.

Actually it is about the Euro, just listen to the Europhiles like Trichet et al from a distance "We will defend the Euro" "Contagion must be stopped" and on and on and on.


Let's say Greece reintroduces the drachma, what would happen? Total economic collapse. Greece isn't an exporting nation and cheaper Greek products abroad wouldn't help Greek economy to balance it out. At the same time, rampant inflation would make it impossible to make any long-term plans. Who would invest drachmas in Greek bonds with drachmas losing worth daily? You bought bonds worth a 1000 euros and two weeks later your bonds are worth 200 euros.

It is not a given that inflation is bad for a country just because Germany had a spot of hyperinflation, that episode didn't even keep Germany down in the end did it. Inflation is a favorite of central bankers chiefly due to it's affect on asset values (generally held by other bankers) effectively it is an attempt to ensure your investment s value into the future.

In fact many people believe that obsession with inflation has led to more economic problems not less.


Also, the notion that crisis in the southern Europe wouldn't affect northern Europe if national currencies still existed runs contrary to logic. European economies are so interconnected that slowing down of Italian and Spanish economies would certainly be felt, pesetas and liras or euros.

This ignores the fact that the essential problem was an interbank problem caused by the Euro, sure it would still have happened but the solution to the problem is not doable under the present Euro. (nor the one France and Germany are talking of now)



Another thing thrown around here is that you can not have single currency if you don't have same level of development -> bollox. Do you think that GDP of American states are equal? California 2 trillion and Wyoming 38 billion. GDP per capita varies between around 70.000 (Delaware) and 35.000 (South Carolina), if we discount District of Columbia which has 170.000. Tax levels are also not the same across the United States. By contrast, difference for GDP per capita between EU states is 32.000 (Netherlands) and 11.000 (Romania (which isn't even in the EMU)), if we discount Luxembourg which has 70.000. Not such a big difference compared to US, is it? And if use only EMU countries, the difference is even smaller.

Furunculus has answered this one perfectly


So, Euro is not the problem and it never was. The story is used now by Eurosceptics looking for a cheap argument because it's easier to blame the Euro than to explain what's happening to the electorate. Why should Germans and French spend their money to bail out Greece? Because it is their investment. They hold most of the debt - if Greece defaults, that deficit moves from Greek to their economies.

It is the problem because it is not fit for it's present purpose, hence the championing of Eurobonds, deeper economic governance or talk of Germany seceding.

Of course Germany and France hold the debt and they will continue to champion (secretly of course)any move to bailout Ireland, Portugal and Greece to get there money back.(hoping it frightens Spain and Italy enough)

The problem is bankers are not popular anywhere right now eh, France and Germany will have a tough time convincing people to continue secretly bailing out busted banks.

[Fragony]

@Samartatarian, not talkinig about Greeks returning to the drachme, let the north give up the euro so it will be the next drachme.Right now we let the banks steal their country it's not right, it's plundering

[Adrian II]

It is telling that Euro media is not even putting it out,our financial minister Jutta Urpilainen put it out on tuesday like i di..The question is why is this not in bbc or deutchewelle, nor le monde

It was too late for me yesterday to call a Helsinki spokesperson, but a Dutch parliamentarian has spoken to a Finnish government minister and the minister confirmed that Finland has indeed signed the deal with Greece.

Like I said, our PM and Finance Minister have **** for brains. They have another parliamentary debate coming and I wouldn't be surprised if it proved to be their undoing. About time.

AII

[Fragony]

It was too late for me yesterday to call a Helsinki spokesperson, but a Dutch parliamentarian has spoken to a Finnish government minister and the minister confirmed that Finland has indeed signed the deal with Greece.

Like I said, our PM and Finance Minister have **** for brains. They have another parliamentary debate coming and I wouldn't be surprised if it proved to be their undoing. About time.

AII

ouch, but what then. We are soooooooo low on capable people in the country of reversed gravity they all fall up and stay there. It's ok that JK la B came out but he's supposed the one who gets it ad rectum not me

[Brenus]

“The problem is bankers are not popular anywhere right now eh, France and Germany will have a tough time convincing people to continue secretly bailing out busted banks.”
Yeap, especially when all the alleged solutions are failing. Greece is worse now than before after the IMF ECB and EU “bail out”. The debts increase because the politicians allowed the banskers to plunder the country.
But now, unlike when it was Argentina, it is known that these “solutions” don’t work. Well, easy enough to understand: You fire a lot of people hence you cut the activity so the taxes don’t come in the state’s coffers. So the banksters, the same that imposed to you the cut, declare that because you have less incomes, you are a risk, so they increase the rate of your interests, So when you have sold every things, that you population is massively unemployed and the rate of poverty drastically increase, you realise that the country is near to unrest and riots.
But for ideological reasons, the Triad can’t change politic. So the Triumvirate now try to avoid a total collapse in breaking the same treaty it imposed on the European Populations in issuing Eurobonds and allowing countries to borrow money at the same rates than the banksters. That would have halted all attacks on Greece if it would have been done before. But the fraudsters can’t do it openly as they only protection against jail and to get their bonuses is to pretend to still stick to the Lisbon Treaty.
The Rich are now facing a dilemma: To be taxed or to lose everything in next crash. But, we have people who explained as that to tax the Rich is not the solution…
What to do, what to do?

Tax the capital at the same rate than the work? The Rich will go somewhere else, we were told… So have a good journey…

“Que se vayan todos”

[Fragony]

'Yeap, especially when all the alleged solutions are failing. Greece is worse now than before after the IMF ECB and EU ?bail out?. The debts increase because the politicians allowed the banskers to plunder the country.'

Yeah it's not right, I got enough already I don't need anything from the Greeks. I am really sorry for them it wasn't me. I think I'm turning into a born-again leftie. Banks are rotten they destroy

[Adrian II]

Daniel Cohn-Bendit put it well in Le Monde yesterday: 'The real problem of the eurozone is that the word of its leaders has triple Zero rating. Merkel and Sarkozy refuse to bail out Greece and then they go and bail her out anyway. They want to stimulate growth but they preach austerity. They want to have their cake and eat it. The markets sense this and speculate on their next mistakes.'

AII

[Fragony]

Daniel Cohn-Bendit put it well in Le Monde yesterday: 'The real problem of the eurozone is that the word of its leaders has triple Zero rating. Merkel and Sarkozy refuse to bail out Greece and then they go and bail her out anyway. They want to stimulate growth but they preach austerity. They want to have their cake and eat it. The markets sense this and speculate on their next mistakes.'

AII

The market just reacts, that is just what it does. I think we should invest in cloning the Finish, starting with Kamagusha

[Kralizec]

Unfortunately, this crisis isn't about the euro and it wouldn't simply disappear even if manage to magically make an instant and perfect transition to old national currencies.

Let's say Greece reintroduces the drachma, what would happen? Total economic collapse. Greece isn't an exporting nation and cheaper Greek products abroad wouldn't help Greek economy to balance it out. At the same time, rampant inflation would make it impossible to make any long-term plans. Who would invest drachmas in Greek bonds with drachmas losing worth daily? You bought bonds worth a 1000 euros and two weeks later your bonds are worth 200 euros.

Also, the notion that crisis in the southern Europe wouldn't affect northern Europe if national currencies still existed runs contrary to logic. European economies are so interconnected that slowing down of Italian and Spanish economies would certainly be felt, pesetas and liras or euros.

Another thing thrown around here is that you can not have single currency if you don't have same level of development -> bollox. Do you think that GDP of American states are equal? California 2 trillion and Wyoming 38 billion. GDP per capita varies between around 70.000 (Delaware) and 35.000 (South Carolina), if we discount District of Columbia which has 170.000. Tax levels are also not the same across the United States. By contrast, difference for GDP per capita between EU states is 32.000 (Netherlands) and 11.000 (Romania (which isn't even in the EMU)), if we discount Luxembourg which has 70.000. Not such a big difference compared to US, is it? And if use only EMU countries, the difference is even smaller.

So, Euro is not the problem and it never was. The story is used now by Eurosceptics looking for a cheap argument because it's easier to blame the Euro than to explain what's happening to the electorate. Why should Germans and French spend their money to bail out Greece? Because it is their investment. They hold most of the debt - if Greece defaults, that deficit moves from Greek to their economies.

Also even if Greece reverts to the drachme, their creditors for existing debts will still demand payment in Euro currency. It's true that Greece suffers from the inability to devaluate their own debt through devaluation (bond buyers wouldn't appreciate that, as you noted) but introducing their own currency at this point is useless. It would make an unilateral default on the bulk of their debt inevitable.

I take the blame-the-euro noise here on the forum with a grain of salt, most of it is given in by Schadenfreude and "told you so" euphoria, coupled with the usual EU = USSR comparisons.

:coffeenews:

[Sarmatian]

It is not a given that inflation is bad for a country just because Germany had a spot of hyperinflation, that episode didn't even keep Germany down in the end did it. Inflation is a favorite of central bankers chiefly due to it's affect on asset values (generally held by other bankers) effectively it is an attempt to ensure your investment s value into the future.

In fact many people believe that obsession with inflation has led to more economic problems not less.

At the same time, Germany was receiving billions in investments, credits and help, not a good example. Yugoslavian hyperinflation was worse than German one. Receiving your salary every day at three o'clock and having to exchange it for hard currency (usually German mark) by 4h because at 5h isn't worth squat isn't good for the economy, period. Greek inflation would be much more akin to that than 20% a year. Argentinian hyperinflation also wasn't particularly fun. It leads to companies of 10,000 employes being closed overnight.

Yes, inflation is good, if were talking about few percents a year, but that's not the deal here.



This ignores the fact that the essential problem was an interbank problem caused by the Euro, sure it would still have happened but the solution to the problem is not doable under the present Euro. (nor the one France and Germany are talking of now)


It is very much doable. It involves severe measures, like increasing revenues and cutting expenses, financed by the taxpayers of course.


Furunculus has answered this one perfectly

If it would came that Texans had to give up a huge percent of their wealth to keep the revenues of people in Arkansas at the same level, you'd hear the same moaning like in Europe. Unlike in Europe, Americans pay federal tax already, so in a way, that decision isn't left to Texans but to federal government.



It is the problem because it is not fit for it's present purpose, hence the championing of Eurobonds, deeper economic governance or talk of Germany seceding.

Of course Germany and France hold the debt and they will continue to champion (secretly of course)any move to bailout Ireland, Portugal and Greece to get there money back.(hoping it frightens Spain and Italy enough)

The problem is bankers are not popular anywhere right now eh, France and Germany will have a tough time convincing people to continue secretly bailing out busted banks.

Tough time, maybe, but it's gonna happen. Alternatives are too scary to even contemplate. The problem isn't the euro, or the EU, it is the reluctance of the national governments to take hard steps that need to be taken. If anything, all this would be easier if EU was (more) federal.

[Furunculus]

If it would came that Texans had to give up a huge percent of their wealth to keep the revenues of people in Arkansas at the same level, you'd hear the same moaning like in Europe. Unlike in Europe, Americans pay federal tax already, so in a way, that decision isn't left to Texans but to federal government.

your answer is to create a european federal tax?

good luck with that.

[Sarmatian]

your answer is to create a european federal tax?

good luck with that.

It's not gonna happen anytime soon, naturally, but I believe it eventually will.

[Furunculus]

It's not gonna happen anytime soon, naturally, but I believe it eventually will.

it is possible i guess, but don't forget my question: "just how close a sense of familial kinship does Herman Von-Deepockets feel with Miguel Loadzawonga?"

[Adrian II]

it is possible i guess, but don't forget my question: "just how close a sense of familial kinship does Herman Von-Deepockets feel with Miguel Loadzawonga?"

Attachment to kinship caused two world wars, both starting in Europe. Thanks to European integration ze bomps are no longer flying and we can even support third world countries such as Malta and Britain.

AII

[Furunculus]

Attachment to kinship caused two world wars, both starting in Europe. Thanks to European integration ze bomps are no longer flying and we can even support third world countries such as Malta and Britain.
AII
i'm afraid that pretending people do not willingly associate and identify with others they deem compatible, because you deem it inherently evil, will not make it any more likely that old herman will be happy to subsidise Miguel.

if merkel thought she could swing eurobonds past her electorate she would have in a shot, but she can't.

[Papewaio]

Sure families are a vital building block within society. But most city states are far more diverse then any one family group. The variation within genes between ethnic groups is less then variation with a group. And the biggest variation between any two groups is not black, white, north, south, red head or brunette... it's man and woman. That little X vs Y is the biggest genetic variation.

So unless someone is adocating a lesbian colony of clones, we will have to put up with genetic variation.

Any state is formed from more then one family is going to be based on something beyond kinship. Tribes and clans only grow so far. It's the breaking of tribalism and the ability to form groups based on things like profession that have allowed cities to evolve.

#####

I remember standing outside a dressing room whilst my wife tried on garments. Two guys were sitting nearby, one a young skinny Indian in dress pants and shirt, the other a fat old ocker Aussie in sandels, shorts and singlet... both sitting looking bored, arms crossed, waiting for their wives to try on clothes... to me that summed up the difference ain't race it's men and women... personally I can put up with differences of that kind as they make life interesting.

[Sarmatian]

it is possible i guess, but don't forget my question: "just how close a sense of familial kinship does Herman Von-Deepockets feel with Miguel Loadzawonga?"

Ol' Herman was subsidizing signor Miguel well before Wilhelm decided that Tanganyika would be a good place for a sausage factory.

[InsaneApache]

So unless someone is advocating a lesbian colony of clones, we will have to put up with genetic variation.

Bring it on! :yes:

[Papewaio]

hmm well maybe we'll just make it a Club Med with web cams...

[Furunculus]

Sure families are a vital building block within society. But most city states are far more diverse then any one family group. The variation within genes between ethnic groups is less then variation with a group. And the biggest variation between any two groups is not black, white, north, south, red head or brunette... it's man and woman. That little X vs Y is the biggest genetic variation.


you a taking what i say too literally. :p

familial sentiment = social/group identity.


Ol' Herman was subsidizing signor Miguel well before Wilhelm decided that Tanganyika would be a good place for a sausage factory.

you say that, but the tortured grimace on Merkel's face tells an entirely different story.

-----------------------

perhaps there is a solution:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100011670/angela-merkel-is-right-eurobonds-are-indeed-the-wrong-answer/

[Papewaio]

you a taking what i say too literally. :p

familial sentiment = social/group identity.



Hard not to in written word of the net, the tone is all lost and banter takes hours. Familial is normally used for family as in ones relations.

Familial level societies were generally hunter-gatherer bands. Once we got over that level we entered Tribal societies... which a lot of these gangs in one form or another are reverting back to the hunter-gatherer groups.

I think most people in a modern nation state can identify them as a member of a family and still have loyalty to a nation. It's pretty easy to look at a large nation and see groups within it that one readily identifies with and others one doesn't. A nation is a composite of many many groups, after all a modern nation relies on modern economics which includes specialisation... and lots of people hang out in groups of like specialists be it doctors, engineers or gamers online.

[Adrian II]

Buddy of mine has always been all-out against the euro, period. Over the years we had quite a few debates. I always thought that a limited euro for the fiscally disciplined, exporting economies like Germany and The Netherlands only (colloquially known as the 'deuro') would be viable. I was probably wrong.

Anyway, today he has a column (http://www.volkskrant.nl/vk/nl/6484/Rene-Cuperus/article/detail/2858451/2011/08/22/De-euro-is-de-zelfmoordpil-van-Europa.dhtml) out in which he calls the euro 'the EU's suicide pill' and advocates its dissolution. So here's what we are debating now: supposing that there would be enough political will to consciously dissolve the euro in a controlled manner, how do we go about it? What strategy would be best?

What do you guys think?

AII

[Furunculus]

I think most people in a modern nation state can identify them as a member of a family and still have loyalty to a nation. It's pretty easy to look at a large nation and see groups within it that one readily identifies with and others one doesn't.
that's kind of the point, there is a nation onto which the state can adhere, does that sentiment (familial i.e. my family) exist at a european level?

[Kralizec]

Buddy of mine has always been all-out against the euro, period. Over the years we had quite a few debates. I always thought that a limited euro for the fiscally disciplined, exporting economies like Germany and The Netherlands only (colloquially known as the 'deuro') would be viable. I was probably wrong.

Anyway, today he has a column (http://www.volkskrant.nl/vk/nl/6484/Rene-Cuperus/article/detail/2858451/2011/08/22/De-euro-is-de-zelfmoordpil-van-Europa.dhtml) out in which he calls the euro 'the EU's suicide pill' and advocates its dissolution. So here's what we are debating now: supposing that there would be enough political will to consciously dissolve the euro in a controlled manner, how do we go about it? What strategy would be best?

What do you guys think?

AII

I think it's ironic that he first compares the EU to Hitler, and then a few paragraphs later complains that you can't oppose centralisation without being called a populist or a nationalist. The article in NRC he refers to was infinetely better and more informative in every respect.

Anyway, I suppose the hypothetical return to national currencies (which I oppose) would be the mirror image of the introduction of the Euro: exchange rates for the nascent currencies are set, followed 1-2 years later by the introduction of actual printed money. Then a year or so where you can pay in both Euro's and the nations respective currency before the former is entirely abolished.
Next: the Netherlands pegs the guilder to the German mark, again waiving any pretentions of monetary policy, and a decade of whining of how Henk & Ingrid got financially screwed by the transition to the guilder.

[Beskar]

Why are they so bloody greedy? Europe is huge. If they want an successful integration.Why not start with smaller regional Unions? Such might actually get even some democratic support. The leaders are constantly trying to bite more they can chew and Louis fear of Chinese i doubt is enough to drive Europeans into integration frenzy.:laugh4:

Because of the current make-up of Europe where the elites have their own vested interests opposed to the vested interest of successful integration.

[Adrian II]

I think it's ironic that he first compares the EU to Hitler, and then a few paragraphs later complains that you can't oppose centralisation without being called a populist or a nationalist.

I think he is right that the Merkozy plan will go the way of the failed authoritarian grand projects of the past. And you misrepresent his statement about populism. Anyway, a transition doesn't seem as simple as that. For instance, what should happen to all debts nominated in euros? I suppose The Netherlands could kiss most of their 150 billion euro loans to Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal goodbye. Our 40 billion export to these countries would possibly be halved because of their much cheaper new currencies. And that's only us. I would predict humongous instability throughout Europe. So what would be the proper mechanisms to more or less control such seismic movements?

AII

[Sarmatian]

I think it's ironic that he first compares the EU to Hitler, and then a few paragraphs later complains that you can't oppose centralisation without being called a populist or a nationalist. The article in NRC he refers to was infinetely better and more informative in every respect.

Anyway, I suppose the hypothetical return to national currencies (which I oppose) would be the mirror image of the introduction of the Euro: exchange rates for the nascent currencies are set, followed 1-2 years later by the introduction of actual printed money. Then a year or so where you can pay in both Euro's and the nations respective currency before the former is entirely abolished.
Next: the Netherlands pegs the guilder to the German mark, again waiving any pretentions of monetary policy, and a decade of whining of how Henk & Ingrid got financially screwed by the transition to the guilder.

It's actually quite more complicated than that - who's going to exchange their euros for drachmas? I certainly wouldn't. In theory you could trace all euros to the country that issued them, but then there would be a problem with a Finn going to the bank with 10,000 euros and getting markkas, marks, liras, pesetas and drachmas in return.

[Papewaio]

What do you guys think?
AII

It would also cause 'brand' damage similar to that of the US Congress bickering.

Considering the basis of the EU is first and foremost economic and you can't even get that right iff you give up on the Euro.

It would effectively dissolve any future ambitions of being a united Europe.

External nations including Russia, China and the US will be wondering how trustworthy the word of any European nation is if they cannot even look after their own EU members.

What treaty will be worth the paper it is printed on if the modern EU at the first pressure buckles and can't work out it's differences without having temper tantrums more beffiting a nusery "it's my currency not yours", "but I want all the benefit's and none of the hardwork", "I want your cheap labour but I don't want to support the country that makes it possible"

Talk about waving the white flag of surrender and truly putting Europe on the trash heap of the has beens. Do you have anything of value like the Marbles that some up and coming states can buy off you in the next hundred years or so? Maybe reposition your new fractured currencies around your ankles in an attempt to out compete Vietnamese labour for manufacturing outsourced from China.

Chose your long term trajectory now. Either deal yourselves in to the future with the Americans and Chinese or stop bitching about how great you were and will never be again. A united Europe has a future, a fractured one will just prove to the rest of the world that two world wars wasn't enough to knock some sense into such a tribal society.

You're on a cusp where Europe can still be something meaningful in the world. Or it can just be a stop over pit stop for the world shakers. A charming destination for tourist's looking for the charming and kitch "Oh look dear the Orient Express is going through Old Europe, do you remember A ma saying that they used to be world leaders until they started looking inwards and collapsed like the China and Japan of old." :coffeenews:

Mind you I live in the world's largest quarry. So what the fudge do I understand about real politik.

[Furunculus]

I think he is right that the Merkozy plan will go the way of the failed authoritarian grand projects of the past. And you misrepresent his statement about populism. Anyway, a transition doesn't seem as simple as that. For instance, what should happen to all debts nominated in euros? I suppose The Netherlands could kiss most of their 150 billion euro loans to Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal goodbye. Our 40 billion export to these countries would possibly be halved because of their much cheaper new currencies. And that's only us. I would predict humongous instability throughout Europe. So what would be the proper mechanisms to more or less control such seismic movements?

AII

i think you are on the money.

[Beskar]

your answer is to create a european federal tax?

good luck with that.

I have heard it would be cheaper for us to do that then the current system of giving the money to Europe straight from our existing taxes. Plus, if it was a straight tax, there would be far more resistance to it ever increasing, and thus European budget could not especially raise it like they do by demanding more money from the nations (which keeps it between politicians and not the tax payer and Europe).

As for Kinship, I feel more kinship with the Scanians of Sweden then I do with the Londoners in the South. Europe Federal Union is something I would encourage and not oppose.

[Adrian II]

Considering the basis of the EU is first and foremost economic and you can't even get that right if you give up on the Euro.

Uhh, hit me :laugh4:

Well, I don't think the EU is first and foremost about economics. And it certainly isn't first and foremost about a common currency. Remember we got along well without one for 50 years. Most of the present eurozone economies would be much more competitive without the euro; the weaker ones would be able to devaluate and the stronger wouldn't have to bail out the weaker ones in the midst of a recession.

Most importantly, each country would retain (or regain) its sovereignty. Further centralisation according to the Merkozy plan would mean putting half a dozen member states under guardianship of an outside agent, i.e. the ESFS or so-called 'future European IMF'. It would spell the end of democracy for these countries since the richer member states would propose to them a deal akin to the one Athens proposed to the Melians.


It would effectively dissolve any future ambitions of being a united Europe.

I think it might enable Europe to re-unite. It is deeply devided now, if you hadn't noticed, and Merkozy is stretching it to breaking point. Any more of this and we will be looking at encampadas throughout the continent. And as much as I hate camping, I'll be joining them.

AII

[Kralizec]

It's actually quite more complicated than that - who's going to exchange their euros for drachmas? I certainly wouldn't. In theory you could trace all euros to the country that issued them, but then there would be a problem with a Finn going to the bank with 10,000 euros and getting markkas, marks, liras, pesetas and drachmas in return.

I think he is right that the Merkozy plan will go the way of the failed authoritarian grand projects of the past. And you misrepresent his statement about populism. Anyway, a transition doesn't seem as simple as that. For instance, what should happen to all debts nominated in euros? I suppose The Netherlands could kiss most of their 150 billion euro loans to Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal goodbye. Our 40 billion export to these countries would possibly be halved because of their much cheaper new currencies. And that's only us. I would predict humongous instability throughout Europe. So what would be the proper mechanisms to more or less control such seismic movements?

I imagine (allthough I'm not exactly well-versed in this sort of thing) that there'd be a long interim period in which national, new currencies exist on paper and pegged to the Euro. This will give time for a lot of government bonds to reach maturity; for those that do not mature in the interim, they'll be "partitioned" into multiple bonds notated in all the different currencies of the former Eurozone. Wether anyone would want to buy new bonds in Drachme or Lira is of course the problem of Greece and Italy, and noone elses. Or at least directly.
For private debts; I imagine that many will renegotiate and pick a relatively stable currency as a bench mark: say, at this point the debt is worth 100.000 Japenese Yen, and when payment is due we expect payment in [French Francs, Liras, Pesetas etc.] worth the same amount in Yen.

As I said before though, I'm not in favour of disbanding the Euro currency. I imagine the resulting situation will be a lot worse then during or before the Euro.

[Kralizec]

Uhh, hit me :laugh4:

Well, I don't think the EU is first and foremost about economics. And it certainly isn't first and foremost about a common currency. Remember we got along well without one for 50 years. Most of the present eurozone economies would be much more competitive without the euro; the weaker ones would be able to devaluate and the stronger wouldn't have to bail out the weaker ones in the midst of a recession.

Most importantly, each country would retain (or regain) its sovereignty. Further centralisation according to the Merkozy plan would mean putting half a dozen member states under guardianship of an outside agent, i.e. the ESFS or so-called 'future European IMF'. It would spell the end of democracy for these countries since the richer member states would propose to them a deal akin to the one Athens proposed to the Melians.



I think it might enable Europe to re-unite. It is deeply devided now, if you hadn't noticed, and Merkozy is stretching it to breaking point. Any more of this and we will be looking at encampadas throughout the continent. And as much as I hate camping, I'll be joining them.

AII

Is the EMU currency itself the problem, or the half-assed institutions that surround it?

Arguably, the current problems would have been a lot smaller if we had a Stability & Growth pact that contained more realistic criteria and was properly enforced.

The EU government structures need to be rebuilt, in my opinion in the likeness of the German government. A Bundestag composed of European parliamentarians and a Bundesrat composed of representatives of the national governments. A proper government who answers to, and can be sacked by the Bundestag. A clearly defined group of tasks in which the EU is competent, the rest being the domain of the national governments.

[Adrian II]

Good ideas, Kralizec, both on the transition away from the euro and on possible future institutions. Only in the present climate there is no room and no political will for a complete institutional rehash. Without this bloody euro mistake we might have been able to progress politically and get our house in Brussels in order, for which a Bundestag/Bundesrat (or US Congress/Senate) model might be suitable - and by that I mean workable as well as equitable. I just don't see it happening now.

AII

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It would also cause 'brand' damage similar to that of the US Congress bickering.

Considering the basis of the EU is first and foremost economic and you can't even get that right iff you give up on the Euro.

It would effectively dissolve any future ambitions of being a united Europe.

External nations including Russia, China and the US will be wondering how trustworthy the word of any European nation is if they cannot even look after their own EU members.

What treaty will be worth the paper it is printed on if the modern EU at the first pressure buckles and can't work out it's differences without having temper tantrums more beffiting a nusery "it's my currency not yours", "but I want all the benefit's and none of the hardwork", "I want your cheap labour but I don't want to support the country that makes it possible"

Talk about waving the white flag of surrender and truly putting Europe on the trash heap of the has beens. Do you have anything of value like the Marbles that some up and coming states can buy off you in the next hundred years or so? Maybe reposition your new fractured currencies around your ankles in an attempt to out compete Vietnamese labour for manufacturing outsourced from China.

Chose your long term trajectory now. Either deal yourselves in to the future with the Americans and Chinese or stop bitching about how great you were and will never be again. A united Europe has a future, a fractured one will just prove to the rest of the world that two world wars wasn't enough to knock some sense into such a tribal society.

You're on a cusp where Europe can still be something meaningful in the world. Or it can just be a stop over pit stop for the world shakers. A charming destination for tourist's looking for the charming and kitch "Oh look dear the Orient Express is going through Old Europe, do you remember A ma saying that they used to be world leaders until they started looking inwards and collapsed like the China and Japan of old." :coffeenews:

Mind you I live in the world's largest quarry. So what the fudge do I understand about real politik.

All this has already happened, "Merkozy" is now aknowledged as the only actual entity capable of providing a solution, and our stock markets are in a dive because those two won't bite the bullet, every dat the dissultion of the Euro becomes more likely and more desirable. I think we have already passed the point of no return, there isn't time for a new treaty to be drawn up, haggled over and voted through in referenda in order to create actual democratic institutions, and even if there was "Merkozy" would not relinquish their power to an elected European government.

The Euro is toast.

On the up side, the US, China and Russia are also in at least as much trouble. China was never going to rule the world, any more than the Soviets, the US is just past it's sell by date (and what a short date) and Russia is totally dependant on it's Tzar for good governence.


I have heard it would be cheaper for us to do that then the current system of giving the money to Europe straight from our existing taxes. Plus, if it was a straight tax, there would be far more resistance to it ever increasing, and thus European budget could not especially raise it like they do by demanding more money from the nations (which keeps it between politicians and not the tax payer and Europe).

As for Kinship, I feel more kinship with the Scanians of Sweden then I do with the Londoners in the South. Europe Federal Union is something I would encourage and not oppose.

I heard that was a lie. It would just result in more taxation, money would still come from the individual states and the EU would just become more beurocratic. The very idea they should be allowed tax-raising powers when their accountants will not sign the account book as legit is insulting.

as to Kinship, Scandanavians are the Cousins of the English, as are the Irish - it's no wonder you feel kinship - that doesn't mean you should be politically yoked to the Greeks and Italians as well.


Good ideas, Kralizec, both on the transition away from the euro and on possible future institutions. Only in the present climate there is no room and no political will for a complete institutional rehash. Without this bloody euro mistake we might have been able to progress politically and get our house in Brussels in order, for which a Bundestag/Bundesrat (or US Congress/Senate) model might be suitable - and by that I mean workable as well as equitable. I just don't see it happening now.

AII

Maybe, but increasingly I have come to believe that the EU has always been a mirrage, success has been more to do with war-fatigue and the threat of the Soviets and their nukes than any actual inherrent worth in the EU project.

[Papewaio]

Uhh, hit me :laugh4:

Well, I don't think the EU is first and foremost about economics. And it certainly isn't first and foremost about a common currency. Remember we got along well without one for 50 years. Most of the present eurozone economies would be much more competitive without the euro; the weaker ones would be able to devaluate and the stronger wouldn't have to bail out the weaker ones in the midst of a recession.

Most importantly, each country would retain (or regain) its sovereignty. Further centralisation according to the Merkozy plan would mean putting half a dozen member states under guardianship of an outside agent, i.e. the ESFS or so-called 'future European IMF'. It would spell the end of democracy for these countries since the richer member states would propose to them a deal akin to the one Athens proposed to the Melians.

EU formed out of the EEU, not out of a revolution, it didn't have anything like the Enlightened Independence statements of the US. It isn't a Federation of nations like Australia. It was formed out of an Economic Union, who once it dropped the Economic part out of the EEU created the Euro.

From the outside it has looked first and foremost about the money. It's not about representation for the people, they can't directly vote for EU officials. The only thing they get is travel, trade and the ability to spend money... hmm tourism and trade seems pretty much economic to me. And once things start getting tough something as benign in the long term as a common currency is looking at getting dropped. Forgive me if it doesn't tarnish the capabilities of the EU... after all it ain't a military superpower... it's supposed to be an economic one.

[Louis VI the Fat]

On the up side, the US, China and Russia are also in at least as much trouble. China was never going to rule the world, any more than the Soviets, the US is just past it's sell by date (and what a short date) and Russia is totally dependant on it's Tzar for good governence.Let's assume this is all true.

Power, however, is relative. Who then, do you think, would rule the world if not Europe, the US, Russia and China? Liechtenstein?



the EU would just become more beurocratic.That's racist!!1! Fear of Eurabia!

WHAT IS YOUR OPINION OF YOUTH CAMPS




Louis - the face of France is no longer the beret but the beurette.

[Furunculus]

EU formed out of the EEU, not out of a revolution, it didn't have anything like the Enlightened Independence statements of the US. It isn't a Federation of nations like Australia. It was formed out of an Economic Union, who once it dropped the Economic part out of the EEU created the Euro.

From the outside it has looked first and foremost about the money. It's not about representation for the people, they can't directly vote for EU officials. The only thing they get is travel, trade and the ability to spend money... hmm tourism and trade seems pretty much economic to me. And once things start getting tough something as benign in the long term as a common currency is looking at getting dropped. Forgive me if it doesn't tarnish the capabilities of the EU... after all it ain't a military superpower... it's supposed to be an economic one.

the eu formed out of the iron and steel community:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Coal_and_Steel_Community


The ECSC was first proposed by French foreign minister Robert Schuman on 9 May 1950 as a way to prevent further war between France and Germany. He declared his aim was to "make war not only unthinkable but materially impossible." The means to do so, Europe's first supranational community, was formally established by the Treaty of Paris (1951), signed not only by France and West Germany, but also by Italy and the three Benelux states: Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

It was political.

Its purpose was to prevent germany walking over europe again, for the french to avoid be walked over again, for the benelux countries to avoid be treated as a gateway to said walking. The germans were embarrassed, the french nervous, and the benelux countries weary.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Let's assume this is all true.

Power, however, is relative. Who then, do you think, would rule the world if not Europe, the US, Russia and China? Liechtenstein?

South America, look at Brazil: developing and largely stable democracy, growing population, largely quite young, and large untapped natural reserves.

The US, by contrast, is largely tapped out on the resource front, has an aging population, and overburdened state and a falling birth rate.

China has a powerful economy, but not per capita, a large democratic deficit and a demographic time bomb that will hit when all those young men realise there are no women fro them to marry and procreate with. Like the US it is also largely tapped out on the resource front, which is which is it why imports massive materials.

Russia shares a border with China, had limited natural resources remaining, a large democratic deficit and a growning and decrepit infastructure whose modernisation is hampered by rampant corruption and cronyism.

Europe, seperately or as the EU, has all the problems of the US (including rising religious fundamentalism) and a democratic deficit.

Whatever the shape of the future, it won't be what we are expecting, but if Europe wants to be powerful again then she will have to go to war and take something from someone else. As you said, power is relative - it is also zero sum.

[Papewaio]

It's still an economic solution. It wasn't formed out of warfare, their isn't a Euro Foreign Legion, it wasn't formed to give more representation to the people, it wasn't formed as a supranation. It was formed over economic ties, and now with no cold war looming over them to unite behind... The EU is having trouble to handle the current economic crisis.

Since that is supposed to be the EUs strong suit one should start looking at the fundamentals and understand why theist fifty years have been successful.

For starters no war in Europe means that there has been more prosperity for all. But why hasn't there been a war? Maybe because of the nuclear arms race by the US and the USSR... A prosperity in Europe paid for outside of the EU.

Financial services are supposed to be Europes strong point... Why the the GFC... Surely Europes vaunted vaults should have had been more robust... So if economics and financial services aren't enough to unite Europe what is?

Remaining individual sovereign states is fine. Just don't expect to have as much world political clout when both China & India have middle class populations greater then the size of Europe. After all their networks and economic clout will each rival the entire EU.

[Papewaio]

Power is not a zero sum game otherwise the cavemen would have the same power as modern man. Europe is on the right track, real long term prosperity can be found more readily through economic entanglement not resource pillaging.

[Adrian II]

From the outside it has looked first and foremost about the money. It's not about representation for the people, they can't directly vote for EU officials.

Of course the EU represents the member nations and we want to keep it that way. What's happening with the bail-outs is already democratically questionable. Here's what the Bundesbank said in its latest report, as translated for our English speaking friends by The Telegraph:


The Bundesbank is questioning the legality of the EU bail-outs, warning that the eurozone is drifting towards a debt union without "democratic legitimacy": "The latest agreements mean that far-reaching extra risks will be shifted to those countries providing help and to their taxpayers, and entail a large step towards a pooling of risks from particular EMU states with unsound public finances. Unless there is a fundamental change of regime involving a far-reaching surrender of national fiscal sovereignty, it is imperative that the 'no bail-out' rule – still enshrined in the treaties – should be strengthened by market discipline, rather than fatally weakened."

Since practically no member state will accept 'a far-reaching surrender of national fiscal sovereignty' any attempted move in that direction as per Merkozy is stilborn. And enforcing 'market discipline' under the standing arrangements is nonsense, too. Just today we have heard that Greece's economy is shrinking at an alarming rate. The only way forward is for certain nations to leave the eurozone.

AII

[Louis VI the Fat]

if Europe wants to be powerful again then she will have to go to war and take something from someone else.Excellent. I propose you take Australia and we take the Sahara. Each ten million square kilometers of desert with a narrow strip of habitable land near the coast.

If the Germans want in too we'll keep 'em down together. We'll overcome any Yank objection by dazzling them with our culture, to which they in the end secretly desire. They'll be in our camp.

But does China sleep this time?



Louis - Gah! I'm so good at plotting global domination! Why oh why wasn't I born in my beloved nineteenth century?

[gaelic cowboy]

Countries have left currency unions before I see no reason it cant be done again.

Ireland left a currency union properly in 1928 but it was still pegged, about 1961 it properly issued a currency cos up to that point all Irish money was redeemable in London (even though it was printed in Dublin)

I dont see why it's not possible to go back, just because it's hard does not mean it impossible it would probably take maybe 20-30 years at least.(plenty time to sort it)

[gaelic cowboy]

But does China sleep this time?

Sleep they will indeed do Louis sure there in a massive ponzi scheme, when looked at from Ireland all the hallmarks are there it's pretty obvious really.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Power is not a zero sum game otherwise the cavemen would have the same power as modern man. Europe is on the right track, real long term prosperity can be found more readily through economic entanglement not resource pillaging.

Of course it's a zero sum game, because (as Louis said) it is relative, if I become more powerful your power diminishes relative to mine, and therefore relative to everyone else.

[Papewaio]

On a ranking system yes.

On a system that measures quality of life factors: no.

My nation increasing it's inhabitants length of life, reducing disease, reducing infant mortality, increasing literacy, increasing freedoms and choice makes my nation more powerful. And doing the same for another nation only increases my nations security and power.

Zero sum would not have allowed us to go beyond the groups of Chimps. Game theory neatly explains a lot of this particularly the need to factor in future interactions.

Zero sum can only exist in a static environment.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

On a ranking system yes.

On a system that measures quality of life factors: no.

My nation increasing it's inhabitants length of life, reducing disease, reducing infant mortality, increasing literacy, increasing freedoms and choice makes my nation more powerful. And doing the same for another nation only increases my nations security and power.

Zero sum would not have allowed us to go beyond the groups of Chimps. Game theory neatly explains a lot of this particularly the need to factor in future interactions.

Zero sum can only exist in a static environment.

"Quality of life" is not particularly relevent to political power, which doesn't mean I dissagree with your statement, I still don't see it as relevent, however.

[Papewaio]

Because if you are basing a government on the theory of consent: "The will of the people shall be the basis of the authority of government."

Then the power of a government increases with the quality of life of its people.

[phonicsmonkey]

Consent is a key issue here.

European monetary union is founded on a false premise - that a group of countries can share a common currency without a common fiscal policy. The current crisis amply demonstrates the folly of this premise.

Indeed, it is not too hard to imagine that the original architects of the monetary union knew this full well and simply pushed ahead without due regard for the ultimate consequences. For the whole project was always political and not economic as has already been noted.

To my mind there are these possible long-term outcomes to the current situation:

- The union survives with full fiscal union. This is highly unlikely as it would effectively also be political union. If a government has no control over its revenue and expenses it cannot be said to be politically sovereign in any meaningful sense. I don't think either the political class or the voting public in any european country is ready for this. Just look at the abject failure of the last round of referenda. This is where the issue of consent comes in.

- The union dissolves. Highly unlikely as the political desire for monetary union is still strong enough in some sigificant quarters and the fear of how the markets would react to a break-up of the monetary union is even stronger. In practical terms this needn't be difficult - as noted above, currency unions have dissolved before and there are metrics available on which to base the exchange rates for a transition back to domestic currencies. As to Euro-denominated debt it is not hard to envisage a series of swap deals whereby it could be exchanged for the equivalent debt denominated in the local currency of the country of the issuer.

- The union survives with very limited fiscal union. Such as Euro-denominated bond issuances backed by the full faith and credit of some or all EU members who are also in the monetary union, to replace or stand behind the questionable debt of those peripheral countries currently targeted by the markets. This is tantamount to a sticking plaster on an open wound. It will succeed in 'kicking the can down the road' as the Americans would say but will not solve the inherent problem of discordant fiscal policy among member states. Lack of 'harmonization' if you will. And another crisis will one day result. Nonetheless I see this as the most likely outcome as it involves the path of least resistance for policy-makers, market participants and the public.

[Brenus]

“the beurette”: The biscuit?

The problem with the so-called “bail out" is that they are not bail out. They are just prolonging the agony of the populations for the profit of the banksters. As viruses, these debts killed the bodies they infected, but in order to gain(survive) more (longer), they successfully transfer the burden of the payment (reinforce the bodies)to the citizens of each country and have to jump to another one when the "host" is dead (valid for viruses and banksters).
The best example of this transfer is England where Private Loses of the Banks were transfer in Public Debt thanks to Brown. It worked for the UK, increasing the debuts thus justifying the cuts.
I thought economy was simple: Consuming can’t exist without income that can’t exist without jobs. With not consumption, not taxes, no income for the states. No income for states means debts can’t be paid.

[Sarmatian]

Consent is a key issue here.

European monetary union is founded on a false premise - that a group of countries can share a common currency without a common fiscal policy. The current crisis amply demonstrates the folly of this premise.



And yet, United States use the dollar for a few centuries and they don't have a common fiscal policy, ie. level of taxation varies between states.

Someone has gotten that idea out and I'm surprised people actually bought it without thinking about it.

[Centurion1]

'Yeap, especially when all the alleged solutions are failing. Greece is worse now than before after the IMF ECB and EU ?bail out?. The debts increase because the politicians allowed the banskers to plunder the country.'

Yeah it's not right, I got enough already I don't need anything from the Greeks. I am really sorry for them it wasn't me. I think I'm turning into a born-again leftie. Banks are rotten they destroy

Lol use your head, fiscal conservatives (true fiscal conservatives) do not bail anyone out. Any conservative who does betrays their purported ideals.

[Centurion1]

And yet, United States use the dollar for a few centuries and they don't have a common fiscal policy, ie. level of taxation varies between states.

There are federal taxes. The state collects things like property and retail taxes.

[Sarmatian]

There are federal taxes. The state collects things like property and retail taxes.

I know, but at the end of the day, you as an individual pay different total amount depending in which state you live. Corporations likewise.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I know, but at the end of the day, you as an individual pay different total amount depending in which state you live. Corporations likewise.

Yes, but the Federal Government still collects large revenues, including income tax. The US also has a transfer union, so the Federal Government moves money from richer states to poorer ones. Just because noy all taxes are harmonised does not mean there is no fiscal union, there is.

Local taxes are not fully harmonised in the UK either, but we still have a fiscal union.

[Sarmatian]

Yes, but the Federal Government still collects large revenues, including income tax. The US also has a transfer union, so the Federal Government moves money from richer states to poorer ones. Just because noy all taxes are harmonised does not mean there is no fiscal union, there is.

Local taxes are not fully harmonised in the UK either, but we still have a fiscal union.

Of course, but the opposition to euro emphasized different tax levels as a reason why it won't succeed, not the inability of Brussels to collect taxes across the EMU.

[Furunculus]

my problem is that there is no legitimacy for a transfer union.

no taxation without representation and all that jazz.

given that the eu is neither accountable or representative, and remains disinclined to ask its various peoples whether they will accede to a federal union, i don't see this situation improving.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Of course, but the opposition to euro emphasized different tax levels as a reason why it won't succeed, not the inability of Brussels to collect taxes across the EMU.

Brussels doesn't collect taxes though, and member states won't let it. That is why a currency union was, and is, lunatic.

[Vladimir]

Louis - the face of France is no longer the beret but the beurette.

Don't do a Google image search of beurette at work. :no:

[Kralizec]

Brussels doesn't collect taxes though, and member states won't let it. That is why a currency union was, and is, lunatic.

This argument doesn't fly. The reason why the currency is in (perceived) trouble isn't because member states collect different amounts of taxes, but because some countries vastly outspent their taxation's income and accumulated a pile of debt. In theory they could have been disciplined a long time ago per existing EU criteria, but this has largely been an empty threat precisely because of the sovereignty-fetishists.

The EU doesn't need a permanent transfer union. Just because some American states can't be bothered to become financially self-sufficient doesn't mean we should accept the same from certain countries. At this moment helping out the PIGS countries may be necessary but it must never take permanent form. Their current problems will have to be solved one way or another, and in the future countries will have to be disciplined at the first sign of slacking off on their budgets.

[Adrian II]

In theory they could have been disciplined a long time ago per existing EU criteria, but this has largely been an empty threat precisely because of the sovereignty-fetishists.

No, because of precedent. Both Germany and France ignored the Stability and Growth Pact and got away with it. Now everybody else ignores it and gets away with it.

The Pact wasn't tenable anyway, given both its anticyclical nature and the divergence of the economies concerned. But heaping lawlessnes upon stupidity hasn't exactly produced superior results, has it? And I refuse to accept your logic that we can resolve this mess by adding blindness to the equation.

AII

[gaelic cowboy]

This argument doesn't fly. The reason why the currency is in (perceived) trouble isn't because member states collect different amounts of taxes, but because some countries vastly outspent their taxation's income and accumulated a pile of debt. In theory they could have been disciplined a long time ago per existing EU criteria, but this has largely been an empty threat precisely because of the sovereignty-fetishists.

The EU doesn't need a permanent transfer union. Just because some American states can't be bothered to become financially self-sufficient doesn't mean we should accept the same from certain countries. At this moment helping out the PIGS countries may be necessary but it must never take permanent form. Their current problems will have to be solved one way or another, and in the future countries will have to be disciplined at the first sign of slacking off on their budgets.

Explain Ireland so???? we never broke the GDP debt ratio till the banks went under.

PVC is right

[Tellos Athenaios]

In theory they could have been disciplined a long time ago per existing EU criteria, but this has largely been an empty threat precisely because of the sovereignty-fetishists. And because the largest players were the ones who consistently flouted these criteria to begin with...


The EU doesn't need a permanent transfer union.
Nah, the EU doesn't need a permanent bail-out union. But a long term transfer union is likely. In a healthy one the net recipients change from time to time as the economy fluctuates, where the money is then used to get out of the net recipient bracket and into the net payer one (which is preferable on the whole, because it implies a far healthier economy). The challenge for these countries is to expand their service sector beyond their internal markets. Portugal and Spain have some success with that in terms of IT & health care.

[Tellos Athenaios]

Explain Ireland so???? we never broke the GDP debt ratio till the banks went under.
Of course not. And everyone, from time to time will do it. The challenge is here not to let this be done out of lazy habit, because you can get away with it (once, or twice or thrice...).

Ireland is a classic example of what happens when a small country guarantees an entire tanking sector, one which represents an economic value that is simply far larger than what the country ordinarily deals with on its balance sheet. So the punch hits home much harder. That can't really be helped, you can't simply conjure such funds when you simply don't have it. :shrug:

[Kralizec]

No, because of precedent. Both Germany and France ignored the Stability and Growth Pact and got away with it. Now everybody else ignores it and gets away with it.

The Pact wasn't tenable anyway, given both its anticyclical nature and the divergence of the economies concerned. But heaping lawlessnes upon stupidity hasn't exactly produced superior results, has it? And I refuse to accept your logic that we can resolve this mess by adding blindness to the equation.

AII

The criteria themselves (3% deficit and 60% government debt) are somewhat arbitrary, and usually exceeded anyway in a period of recession when governments resort to deficit spending (what's wrong with anticyclical spending anyway?)
These criteria have however, never been intended as an instant justification for sanctions but as a prerequisite, as evidenced by the fact that the council can, but doesn't have to impose sanctions in the case of a breech. Wich brings me to the second point...

Germany and France getting away with their budgetary vices is a symptom of the toothlessness of the pact, not the cause of it. Even if they had behaved themselves on those occasions it's extremely questionable wether anybody else would have been punished for infractions. It was decided in the early days that the ability to impose sanctions should lie with the council (i.e. the national leaders and potential culprits) instead of a supranational body like the European Commission, or some other EU institution. The reason? The fear of losing sovereignty, or the appearance of giving away sovereignty in front of voters.


Explain Ireland so???? we never broke the GDP debt ratio till the banks went under.

PVC is right

I stand corrected, in regards to Ireland. What I said still stands for Greece, Italy and some others though.
I still haven't seen anybody put forward a coherent argument why overarching taxes are necessary for a monetary union.


But a long term transfer union is likely. In a healthy one the net recipients change from time to time as the economy fluctuates, where the money is then used to get out of the net recipient bracket and into the net payer one (which is preferable on the whole, because it implies a far healthier economy). The challenge for these countries is to expand their service sector beyond their internal markets. Portugal and Spain have some success with that in terms of IT & health care.

I don't have much agains the system you describe if it's meant for emergencies or unusual situations. As a general procedure, it smells of moral hazard.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The criteria themselves (3% deficit and 60% government debt) are somewhat arbitrary, and usually exceeded anyway in a period of recession when governments resort to deficit spending (what's wrong with anticyclical spending anyway?)
These criteria have however, never been intended as an instant justification for sanctions but as a prerequisite, as evidenced by the fact that the council can, but doesn't have to impose sanctions in the case of a breech. Wich brings me to the second point...

Germany and France getting away with their budgetary vices is a symptom of the toothlessness of the pact, not the cause of it. Even if they had behaved themselves on those occasions it's extremely questionable wether anybody else would have been punished for infractions. It was decided in the early days that the ability to impose sanctions should lie with the council (i.e. the national leaders and potential culprits) instead of a supranational body like the European Commission, or some other EU institution. The reason? The fear of losing sovereignty, or the appearance of giving away sovereignty in front of voters.



I stand corrected, in regards to Ireland. What I said still stands for Greece, Italy and some others though.
I still haven't seen anybody put forward a coherent argument why overarching taxes are necessary for a monetary union.



I don't have much agains the system you describe if it's meant for emergencies or unusual situations. As a general procedure, it smells of moral hazard.

You sound like the German politics student I lived with. It's simple:

Try to "dicipline" Greece after the recession and they will give you the finger, because the Greek government is elected by the Greeks and you cannot make demands of a soverign country. If you have a mechanism for successfully diciplining Greece then you will have persuaded her, and the rest of the Eurozone to surrender fiscal soverignty.

That. won't. happen.

Such a change MUST be approved by plebicite, unless you want to trigger serious civil unrest, the sort of thing that makes the recent Greek protests look like mild complaint.

Fiscal diciple takes you down the same road as a transfer union, and that is Political Union.

The failure to accept these basic facts is what got you lot into this mess, burying your head in the sand at this point is not only irresponsible, it is bordering on insane. Either bit the bullet or bite the head of the Hydra.

[Furunculus]

In theory they could have been disciplined a long time ago per existing EU criteria, but this has largely been an empty threat precisely because of the sovereignty-fetishists.

what happens when the large majority are "sovereignty fetishists" as you so choicely described it?

i tell you what happens; it becomes your problem (the supranational fetishists), not ours.

you are advocating solutions that can only be implemented in an unrepresentative democracy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_democracy#Elections_in_the_USSR)!

[Adrian II]

(what's wrong with anticyclical spending anyway?)



Oh snap! :laugh4:

Fortunately you already knew what was meant: the pact discourages meaningful anticyclical policies. :bow:

P.S. Oh dear, Furunculus is doing a Farrage.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Oh snap! :laugh4:

Fortunately you already knew what was meant: the pact discourages meaningful anticyclical policies. :bow:

P.S. Oh dear, Furunculus is doing a Farrage.

Yeah? Did you not see the video I posted earlier, Farragw was the prophet of the Eurozone crisis.

[Beskar]

my problem is that there is no legitimacy for a transfer union.

no taxation without representation and all that jazz.

given that the eu is neither accountable or representative, and remains disinclined to ask its various peoples whether they will accede to a federal union, i don't see this situation improving.

You know I am pro-representation and you know my views on what a Federal Europe should become. In the same breath, you don't want my vision of Europe to ever occur because full well your arguments of "no representation" "lack of democracy" "stupid bureaucracy" would no longer be valid, so the world you have shaped in your vision would be ney impossible to create.

It is one of those situations where the arguments being used against a structure so you have legitimacy to say "Let's pull right out of Europe and stuff it", however solutions to the issues such as representation amongst other things is something you seriously do not want as your goal is to pull out of Europe and the idea of a European Federation, not because of the lack of representation itself.

This manifests itself in European politics as the political battles are fought over Europe. There are a great many people advocating for reform, to usher in a era of a stable and democratic Europe, but these are strongly opposed by those who want to pull out of Europe altogether and those who have their fingers in the pie of cronyism. The pro-Europeans have the fight the united forces of Cronyism and European Skepticism made worse by the fact the Cronyism feign to bat for both sides in order to strengthen their own position within Europe at expense of the pro-Europeans and the anti-Europeans.

[Vladimir]

Oh snap! :laugh4:

Fortunately you already knew what was meant: the pact discourages meaningful anticyclical policies. :bow:

P.S. Oh dear, Furunculus is doing a Farrage.

Do you mean the Furunculus Maneuver?

[Adrian II]

Yeah? Did you not see the video I posted earlier, Farragw was the prophet of the Eurozone crisis.

I know. Furunculus just compared the EU to the USSR just like Farrage did.

Hence my remark that he was doing a Farrage. :yes:

AII

[Furunculus]

P.S. Oh dear, Furunculus is doing a Farrage.

what's a "farage"


You know I am pro-representation and you know my views on what a Federal Europe should become. In the same breath, you don't want my vision of Europe to ever occur because full well your arguments of "no representation" "lack of democracy" "stupid bureaucracy" would no longer be valid, so the world you have shaped in your vision would be ney impossible to create.

that's because i don't recognise 'europe' to be a valid demos whereby i can have a reasonable amount of confidence that a broad majority view shares my aims and expectations, thus reassuring me that when bad things happen that the response will be predictable and conform to my desires.


I know. Furunculus just compared the EU to the USSR just like Farrage did.
Hence my remark that he was doing a Farrage. :yes:
AII

aha, i understand, but presuming you are referring to the soviet-elections hyperlink that was predicated on the EU creating this transfer union without the a mandate from its 'people', which would be an excellent parallel to the old soviet lark of giving everyone a vote which makes no tangible difference to their governance.

There are a great many people advocating for reform, to usher in a era of a stable and democratic Europe

i'm one of them, i want to return europe to a solid principle of intergovernmental rule whereby sovereign nations beholden to their electorates via legitimate ties founded in representation and accountability.

[Papewaio]

So if the ability to move around the EU zone both people and capital already exist... Why not evolve into a Federation with the ability to vote at local council, state and EU level?

What is lost if Joe Citizen can have the same mobility of self as C-level executives?

It seems to me that the most adaptable wins. At the moment corporations trump the nations in the EU because the corps and their key staff are already supranational.

You've gone from cities, to city states to nations. Why not create a federated model?

[Furunculus]

So if the ability to move around the EU zone both people and capital already exist... Why not evolve into a Federation with the ability to vote at local council, state and EU level?

What is lost if Joe Citizen can have the same mobility of self as C-level executives?

It seems to me that the most adaptable wins. At the moment corporations trump the nations in the EU because the corps and their key staff are already supranational.

You've gone from cities, to city states to nations. Why not create a federated model?

we already have a free movement of labour, which is great, but as noted previously:


because i don't recognise 'europe' to be a valid demos whereby i can have a reasonable amount of confidence that a broad majority view shares my aims and expectations, thus reassuring me that when bad things happen that the response will be predictable and conform to my desires.

for example, as a person that gets his kicks out of geopolitics i am quite content that my nation should retain nukes (and nuclear) alongside a (sensibly) interventionist foreign policy. i do not recognise as valid or legitimate german decisions to dodge afghanistan and libya or to reject nuclear and nukes, but that is fine because they are a different demos that is free to do their own thing, so the idea that britain might constrain its ambitions to fit the consensus of our continental cousins is absurd.

the answer is obvious; the european economic area, or EEC, where sovereign nation states of europe cooperate and collaborate on shared interests.

why seek more when it will only lead to the very strife that our federasts believe they are helping us to avoid?

[Papewaio]

So can Britain then fully devolve into the UUK... The Un-United Kingdoms of England, Northern Island, Scotland, Wales & The Manx.

Surely given your argument it would be best if Leeds and Manchestor form their own city states to look after their own demo...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

So can Britain then fully devolve into the UUK... The Un-United Kingdoms of England, Northern Island, Scotland, Wales & The Manx.

Surely given your argument it would be best if Leeds and Manchestor form their own city states to look after their own demo...

Well, no, because we would use force to restore order, the EU cannot do the same.

German Leopads will not roll into Athens to enforce austerityy.

[Furunculus]

So can Britain then fully devolve into the UUK... The Un-United Kingdoms of England, Northern Island, Scotland, Wales & The Manx.

Surely given your argument it would be best if Leeds and Manchestor form their own city states to look after their own demo...

a fine example of reductio-ad-absurdum.

think on this; indirect democracy only works because you have sufficient confidence that your peers will act in a sufficiently predictable and acceptable manner, that you are willing to be bound by their collective decisions and share in responsibility for acts taken in your name. if you are unwilling to give of your authority that others may act in your name it is because you do not perceive government as legitimate, most probably because it is neither accountable nor representative of your interests.

i have this confidence in britain; as Louis has on occasion noted we are a boisterous and warlike bunch still, with an apparent love of exactly the kind of adversarial politics, and the same hate of arbitrary interference in personal life.

it works for me, i am content.

as for scotland et-al, they are fee to do as they wish. if they want independence they can have it, i would believe them to be idiots as we have achieved our greatest acts united, but it would be evidence of precisely that lack of shared familial sentiment that is necessary for healthy majoritarian governance to exists. rather than compel them to adhere to the united kingdom, and invent torturous proportional systems of governance to ameliorate their ill-feeling i would rather let them walk away.

[Furunculus]

those plucky finns are demonstrating the results of precisely that lack of shared familial sentiment:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8719095/Finland-threatens-to-withdraw-Greek-bailout-support.html

it's all very well to put your time and effort into helping out the families persistently drunk uncle, but would you put the same time and effort into getting someone else's drunk uncle back on the wagon?

[Fragony]

Go Finland, how very populist of you to look after your own interests instead of the EUSSR's. Why is there doubt? In your heart

heh timberrrrr

[gaelic cowboy]

This has a familiar pattern to it by now, politicians fail to get ahead of the story and announce austerity plans.


France set to announce austerity measures (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0824/france.html)

We can expect that some bit down the road a new crisis will occur, my bet is low or no french growth.

Thats bad for Ireland as we just recorded a huge trade surplus, any stop to world or euro recovery hit those surpluses were using to pay the bailout with.

dairy sales help lift Ireland to record trade surplus (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/dairy-sales-help-lift-ireland-to-record-trade-surplus-2856021.html)


Yea I knew it was too good to be true, I bet ye 10 euro in paddy power we record a trade deficit at the end of the year even with the massive surplus in first half.
Fear deepens for eurozone's economy as growth stalls (http://www.independent.ie/business/european/fear-deepens-for-eurozones-economy-as-growth-stalls-2855989.html)

[Papewaio]

think on this; indirect democracy only works because you have sufficient confidence that your peers will act in a sufficiently predictable and acceptable manner, that you are willing to be bound by their collective decisions and share in responsibility for acts taken in your name. if you are unwilling to give of your authority that others may act in your name it is because you do not perceive government as legitimate, most probably because it is neither accountable nor representative of your interests.


I don't expect my fellow citizens to vote the same way as me, or to have the same desires. I do believe that democracy is a very good way to moderate a government and with the proper tools of transparency and checks and balances.

What I do think is that the EU got its economic game on before it got its political one. It should have allowed voting at the EU level by the people. I find it strange that the EU formed, made monetary policy yet left off the ability to vote for those who make such decisions.

To me it shows either lack of foresight or power mungering by the politicians... greed and stupidity is an attribute found throughout humanity.

[Kagemusha]

To me it is only responsible politics from Finnish leadership. They are following the democratic will of Finnish people, which is not to throw money down to the well. Yesterday German Chancellor Merkel rejected the idea of bilateral guarantees between individual Euro Nations. Is Merkel rejecting the souverinity of Finland?

Now i want to be perfectly clear about this. EU is not a federal state and Merkel is not the Chancellor of EU. There might be certain wish for that, but that is not a fact and unless democratically decided so, EU member nations retain their souverinity. Ive said many weeks a go already that if we want to keep having Euro, which we have to, those not meeting the EMU criteria has to be kicked out. Thus i agreed to the earlier buffer trust for emergencies like we are in right now.

Still the problem is that the financial injections do not seem to have the effect that was hoped for them, thus further injections towards Greece are just money waisted. This creates a problem for any responsible Government, which right now i am not counting Germany and France among. If they have an vague idea of federal Europe in the future, that is fine and dandy, but they cant base the current politics for that vision. Even more so, when i am not sure there is democratic majority in any of the EU countries for Federal State right now. Thus they are being irresponsible in their efforts of holding the Union as tight as possible, when the function of EU is not right now, anything akin to their future vision.

Personally i dont think that the monetary crisis right now is derived from political problems of EU, but a global problem in both market economy and economical mis thinking when it comes to foundations of economical model for Nations. The current economical thought that there is no need to base currencies in actual wealth like for example Gold, creates an enviroment, where the value itself has no value other then theoretical and the best way to make profit is to manipulate currency values, by injecting and withdrawing "money" to the FX market. Meanwhile the basic thought of economical growth is that the best growth, no matter if it is a independent business or a Nation state can be achieved by living on a debt, which is not intended entirely never to be paid back, as the future profits are thought to make the actual debt profitable.So the debt is not anymore there for expansion of profitable efforts, but thought as profit in itself.

This kind of model is just not sustainable. We need something real to base our economies into.

[Fragony]

If you get this of my back I'm going to order a random fin a pizza. Time for a proper Euro project 'pizza's for Finnish'

[Louis VI the Fat]

What I do think is that the EU got its economic game on before it got its political one. It should have allowed voting at the EU level by the people. I find it strange that the EU formed, made monetary policy yet left off the ability to vote for those who make such decisions.

To me it shows either lack of foresight or power mungering by the politicians... Ah...Internet is a bad place for info about the EU, Pape.

The EU would love love love to have directly elected EU politicians. The EU would love nothing more than to be directly accountable to the voters. It is the electorates which have always rejected it.

[Kagemusha]

If you get this of my back I'm going to order a random fin a pizza. Time for a proper Euro project 'pizza's for Finnish'

Id rather have you to go and buy a gyros from your local Greek restaurant, as they are propably sending lot of their earnings back home any way.

[Furunculus]

I don't expect my fellow citizens to vote the same way as me, or to have the same desires. I do believe that democracy is a very good way to moderate a government and with the proper tools of transparency and checks and balances.

What I do think is that the EU got its economic game on before it got its political one. It should have allowed voting at the EU level by the people. I find it strange that the EU formed, made monetary policy yet left off the ability to vote for those who make such decisions.

To me it shows either lack of foresight or power mungering by the politicians... greed and stupidity is an attribute found throughout humanity.

you keep missing the point; identity!

no-one gives a hoot about european elections, or their european identity.

Nor. Is. Necessary. To. Invent. One.

What is wrong with a return to a europe built on the principle of intergovernmental rule whereby sovereign nations beholden to their electorates via legitimate ties founded in representation and accountability?

I really fail to understand this continual push to ever deeper union when it is:
1. not needed
2. not wanted
3. positively antagonistic to the continued good relations between european nations?

why? tell me why? please make me understand............... WHY?

[Fragony]

Id rather have you to go and buy a gyros from your local Greek restaurant, as they are propably sending lot of their earnings back home any way.

If you don't take this of my back I'm going to order the most expensive menu at the local Greek and leave without paying. Think of the children

Our local Greek doesn't quite need it by the way http://www.pallasathene.nl/fotoboek.php?kroegnummer=10729&wat=showfoto&nummer=911778&onderwerp=20096

[Kralizec]

Try to "dicipline" Greece after the recession and they will give you the finger, because the Greek government is elected by the Greeks and you cannot make demands of a soverign country. If you have a mechanism for successfully diciplining Greece then you will have persuaded her, and the rest of the Eurozone to surrender fiscal soverignty.

It has been realized from the beginning, allthough some seem to have forgotten meanwhile, that a common currency required certain norms regarding government debts and deficit spending. The Stability & Growth pact, as flawed as it was, could have been enough if the Council had ever acted on it to punish the worst offenders.
More realistic criteria is required, as well as the will to act upon them - by a supranational body if necessary, because an intergovernmental body like the Council has so far proven to be useless in this capacity. Sadly I don't expect anything of the sort will happen, and I don't think that the French-German proposal to enshrine debt limits in national constitutions will be uniformly applied either (Spain has apparently agreed, but I fear that Italian and Greek politicians won't have the courage to defend austerity to their electorates)

If there's to be a plebscite, it would have to be between:
A) a EU budget authority, or some other mechanism to effectively name&shame or fine the drunken spenders.
B) leaving the monetary union for that respective country.

"Fiscal sovereignty", as the fetishists call it, isn't completely lost under option A. Member states are still largely free in how they tax and how they spend; they're just not free to accumulate debt until a point where it threatens the larger EMU economy.
Despite the increased euroscepticism these past years, I would be surprised if option B would prevail in multiple countries. Bashing the Euro was very popular in Italy a couple of years back; now they crave the stability that it provides.

[Adrian II]

I fear that Italian and Greek politicians won't have the courage to defend austerity to their electorates

My friend, have you been to Greece recently? Have you any idea of the level of austerity that has already been imposed by its government? It seems to me that you are disconnected from reality, living in a cocoon of illusions and bureaucratic language that has no relation to facts of any sort.

Greek leaders should finally have the nerve to call it a day, leave the eurozone and restructure their debt to a sustainable level in view of the fact that that their economy is shrinking this year. That is the only reasonable course for Greece.

[Husar]

Greek leaders should finally have the balls to call it a day, leave the eurozone and restructure their debt to a sustainable level in view of the fact that that their economy is shrinking this year. That is the only reasonable course for Greece.

This.
And I wish german and french leaders had the fortitude to tell them that instead of sinking even more money or guarantees(also money in the end) into the mess...

[Kralizec]

Never been to Greece. Maybe what you say is inevitable for Greece, but don't expect me to be impressed by their "austerity".

So they stopped the practice of letting droves of people retire in their early 50'ies. They froze public service salaries, after they'd already risen by over 30% since 2006. I could go on, but you get the idea.
If the Greek government decides to leave the EMU, fine by me, but it won't be because of their testicular fortitude- something that Greek politicians have consistently lacked. Greece prides itself on having invented "democracy", yet is incapable of electing goverments that will do the right thing. Till now, instead of having leaders that take tough decisions and defend these measures in front of their voters, they had politicians that live in perpetual fear of riots and civil disobedience- and I'm not talking about the last 2 years alone.

[Beskar]

Greece is pretty backwards compared to Western standards and they have a big distrust of banks. This was evident when they went to change currency into the Euro and millions of people came into the banks with suitcases full of money to get it changed. They pay for everything in case so they can evade taxes and they were happy in their own little world doing whatever.

When the Euro came, it changed everything for the Greeks. They were no longer some random small corner and felt the need to improve themselves and they were brought dragging and kicking into the 20th Century from like the 18th overnight and they need lots of work doing still today.

[Sarmatian]

Never been to Greece. Maybe what you say is inevitable for Greece, but don't expect me to be impressed by their "austerity".

So they stopped the practice of letting droves of people retire in their early 50'ies. They froze public service salaries, after they'd already risen by over 30% since 2006. I could go on, but you get the idea.


Exactly. Severe austerity measures in Greece are five workdays in Germany.

Leaving the eurozone is not the solution. Being in EMU is what keeps Greek economy together at the moment. I'm really fascinated with the idea of Greece leaving euro and defaulting. It's basically saying, hey, have your economy crush and burn, let your GDP drop three times, have growth after ten years and proclaim victory but don't tell anyone that you need another 30 years of that growth to reach 2010 level of GDP. Brilliant indeed. In the meantime, enjoy being kicked out from just about any international financial institution and good luck with lawsuits.

Meanwhile, in the north, Germans are still angry because they still have to cover that loss. Even more French understand them completely.

[Kagemusha]

Exactly. Severe austerity measures in Greece are five workdays in Germany.

Leaving the eurozone is not the solution. Being in EMU is what keeps Greek economy together at the moment. I'm really fascinated with the idea of Greece leaving euro and defaulting. It's basically saying, hey, have your economy crush and burn, let your GDP drop three times, have growth after ten years and proclaim victory but don't tell anyone that you need another 30 years of that growth to reach 2010 level of GDP. Brilliant indeed. In the meantime, enjoy being kicked out from just about any international financial institution and good luck with lawsuits.

Meanwhile, in the north, Germans are still angry because they still have to cover that loss. Even more French understand them completely.

So essentially you are saying that these are not even protective measures towards Greek economy, but the rest of the EU is somehow entitled to essentially providing for Greece. Why next to Spain and then for Italy. I am starting to feel like that the Central and Northern Europe is somehow a slot machine for Southern Europe. The difference being that you get a prize each time from this one.

[Centurion1]

^ all he said was that the greeks measures of austerity are pathetic because in functioning nations like germany they are the same way. All of greece's changes brought them from the ridiculous level they were at and put them at a responsible level. And that if a nations economy starts collapsing and their gdp is shrinking them kick them out.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Ah...Internet is a bad place for info about the EU, Pape.

The EU would love love love to have directly elected EU politicians. The EU would love nothing more than to be directly accountable to the voters. It is the electorates which have always rejected it.

If this is true then why was the Lisbon Treaty enacted after its first incarnation, the Constitution, was voted down by referenda, and why did the Irish vote twice?

The voting down of the Constitution was an opertunity for the European architechts to take a step back, look at their direction and adjust accordingly, instead they ducked and carried on in the same direction as they were already going.

If the EU is going to work then it HAS to make itself directly accountable, and that means a referendum in each country every time the Commission changed a treaty, if those changes keep getting voted down then that simply demonstrates that the EU lacks popular backing, and is therefore not going anywhere.

[Kagemusha]

^ all he said was that the greeks measures of austerity are pathetic because in functioning nations like germany they are the same way. All of greece's changes brought them from the ridiculous level they were at and put them at a responsible level. And that if a nations economy starts collapsing and their gdp is shrinking them kick them out.

Greek economy started collapsing long a go before the changes.The changes were forced on them in order for the first support pack to go through.Greek ridiculous public spending, utter disrespect of EMU guidelines and irresponsible debt taking collapsed their economy. Now because of the Global economical situation , the massive amounts fellow EMU countries have supported the Greek economy is not providing a result it was aimed for. And still others should continue throwing money away at that direction?

Sorry, but no.Not atleast without clear guarantees for it.

[Centurion1]

Greek economy started collapsing long a go before the changes.The changes were forced on them in order for the first support pack to go through.Greek ridiculous public spending, utter disrespect of EMU guidelines and irresponsible debt taking collapsed their economy. Now because of the Global economical situation , the massive amounts fellow EMU countries have supported the Greek economy is not providing a result it was aimed for. And still others should continue throwing money away at that direction?

Sorry, but no.Not atleast without clear guarantees for it.

Okay now you are just pissing me off. Why don't you read instead of knee jerking.

[Vladimir]

Whoa. Easy there dude.

[Furunculus]

and now we enter the real end-game:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8720792/Germany-fires-cannon-shot-across-Europes-bows.html

I give you the German President Christian Wulff:


““I regard the huge buy-up of bonds of individual states by the ECB as legally and politically questionable. Solidarity is the core of the European Idea, but it is a misunderstanding to measure solidarity in terms of willingness to act as guarantor or to incur shared debts. With whom would you be willing to take out a joint loan, or stand as guarantor? For your own children? Hopefully yes. For more distant relations it gets a bit more difficult,”

remember me wittering on about that "shared familial sentiment", yes, yes, a trifling irrelevance against the importance of dry technocratic governance, i see that now.

lol!

[gaelic cowboy]

and now we enter the real end-game:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8720792/Germany-fires-cannon-shot-across-Europes-bows.html

I give you the German President Christian Wulff:



remember me wittering on about that "shared familial sentiment", yes, yes, a trifling irrelevance against the importance of dry technocratic governance, i see that now.

lol!

hmm

I assume the German President is a largely ceremonial position just like the Irish President or the Queen in the UK???

The fact he commented on a current political situation is news enough really, usually ceremonial heads of state stay out of the mudpit.

[Louis VI the Fat]

hmm

I assume the German President is a largely ceremonial position just like the Irish President or the Queen in the UK???

The fact he commented on a current political situation is news enough really, usually ceremonial heads of state stay out of the mudpit.The president commonly stays out of the mudpit, therefore his words carry not inconsiderable moral weight when he does express a political concern.
There is obviously great unease in Germany, a sense of being robbed, 'why should we pay for the mess of others, we're not Europe's ATM'.

Not that I blame them. But gah! In the old days all you had to do at this point was a little improvised sketch, a John Cleesesque 'don't mention the war...oops likes like I just did'. Doesn't work anymore. Ever since the reconquista of Eastern Germany the Teutons have been restless in their oak forests.
ARE THEY CALLING THpsE NEW BUNDESLANDS MIDDLE GERMANY YET?


Personally, I wouldn't mind paying...if it meant helping the Greek poor, or safeguarding the purchasing power of Portuguese and Irish pensions. But who are we bailing out, exactly, French and German and Dutch banks, and an unworkable political project?



Louis - life was so much more fun back when there was just a grand European project and sceptics were just spiteful little fascists on the worng side of history

[Furunculus]

Louis - life was so much more fun back when there was just a grand European project and sceptics were just spiteful little fascists on the wrong side of history

Life is rich and full of novel experience, just waiting to inhaled! :laugh4:

[Papewaio]

remember me wittering on about that "shared familial sentiment", yes, yes, a trifling irrelevance against the importance of dry technocratic governance, i see that now.

lol!

Yes and as I've stated if Europe wants to evolve to another level of statehood and get past the small scale nation state into a federation of nations then it either:
a) Wipes out most different people until they are 90% the same ethnic group (apparently it has been tried but was rather unsuccessful).
b) Go the Norman way and intergrate and become multicultural and hence be able to grow beyond the current borders.

I understand familial tendences are there, I just see it as an immense cultural failing when nations can't get beyond that point. The same failing that is responsible for 2 world wars.

Type (a) China, India and a lesser extent Indonesia... mind you not many people think they are a huge success per citizen... so maybe type (a) states aren't the best solution

Type (b) USA has already proved it is possible to create a larger state of diverse people.
Australia is much smaller but its economy and stability also prove this. Brazil is an up and coming world economy.

Singapore stradles a few crossroads... it is far more multicultural then its neighbours Malaysia and Indonesia but it is a very benign dictatorship. It is however very successful. Malaysia is probably less racist then Indonesia and as such Malaysia is more successful.

So to go from hunter gatherers, to tribes, to city states, to nations all require increasing ability in handling numbers (social network size), recipriocal arrangements (longer time, further distance, and enhanced by inventions such as money, banks, stocks etc) and the ability to handle change (diverse work, home and culutural environments) as modern economies rely on more and more diversity (specialisation) to succeed.

This is of course iff the people want to form an EU. And if that is the case the first step should have been representation... particularly if their taxes are being spent. Form the political core first, including voting on EU senators/commissioners/referees or whatever name people what to use. Factor in several things: votes by nation, by population and somewhat by GDP

(In aus we have x number of senators per state and a fraction of that for territories... territories have far more federal oversight as they are not A class economies or population numbers... so in a Federated EU model the PIGS would be territories until they got their economies sorted... in short everyone would get representation... but if you aren't economically viable the number of representatives drop... which is a great incentive for politicians to pull their fingers out... look after the economy or lose your job)

If they don't want a political union then unwind the economic parts that require the people to act as fundraisers for foreign entities. Ultimately a modern nation should have representation by voting by the people... every rule has an exception, Singapore already has dibs on that, so either become a modern democratically elected EU are devolve... either way let the people decide.

[Kagemusha]

Okay now you are just pissing me off. Why don't you read instead of knee jerking.

Huh? Did i not address your points or did i?

[Furunculus]

Yes and as I've stated if Europe wants to evolve to another level of statehood and get past the small scale nation state into a federation of nations then it either:
a) Wipes out most different people until they are 90% the same ethnic group (apparently it has been tried but was rather unsuccessful).
b) Go the Norman way and intergrate and become multicultural and hence be able to grow beyond the current borders

Type (a) China, India and a lesser extent Indonesia... mind you not many people think they are a huge success per citizen... so maybe type (a) states aren't the best solution

Type (b) USA has already proved it is possible to create a larger state of diverse people.
Australia is much smaller but its economy and stability also prove this. Brazil is an up and coming world economy.

Singapore stradles a few crossroads... it is far more multicultural then its neighbours Malaysia and Indonesia but it is a very benign dictatorship. It is however very successful. Malaysia is probably less racist then Indonesia and as such Malaysia is more successful.

So to go from hunter gatherers, to tribes, to city states, to nations all require increasing ability in handling numbers (social network size), recipriocal arrangements (longer time, further distance, and enhanced by inventions such as money, banks, stocks etc) and the ability to handle change (diverse work, home and culutural environments) as modern economies rely on more and more diversity (specialisation) to succeed.

This is of course iff the people want to form an EU. And if that is the case the first step should have been representation... particularly if their taxes are being spent. Form the political core first, including voting on EU senators/commissioners/referees or whatever name people what to use. Factor in several things: votes by nation, by population and somewhat by GDP

(In aus we have x number of senators per state and a fraction of that for territories... territories have far more federal oversight as they are not A class economies or population numbers... so in a Federated EU model the PIGS would be territories until they got their economies sorted... in short everyone would get representation... but if you aren't economically viable the number of representatives drop... which is a great incentive for politicians to pull their fingers out... look after the economy or lose your job)

If they don't want a political union then unwind the economic parts that require the people to act as fundraisers for foreign entities. Ultimately a modern nation should have representation by voting by the people... every rule has an exception, Singapore already has dibs on that, so either become a modern democratically elected EU are devolve... either way let the people decide.

agreed with the thrust of what you're saying, merely noting that continental europe is getting the worst of both worlds here; federal europe without the consent of the people, therefore percieved to be unaccountable and unrepresentative.



I understand familial tendences are there, I just see it as an immense cultural failing when nations can't get beyond that point. The same failing that is responsible for 2 world wars.

i think we can admit that life is a little more complex than that bland statement, and that europe has got on just fine as a collection of cooperating and collaborating sovereign nation states as the EEC and EC.

i could equally point out that poorly integrated federal states, where the population don't feel they own the identity and cannot relate to government acts supposedly taken in their name, can lead to brutal civil war such as occurred in the former Yugoslavia.

and that point about world wars completely ignores the fact that political governance is always most appropriate at the smallest level efficiency can allow, because variations in societal expectations will always lead to tension. the nation states of europe are already a very effective form of governance, and no-one has ever demonstrated to me that a federal europe will give a better result.

[Papewaio]

I know a lot of my post are barbed tongue in cheek... I just find it annoying when states fail at things that they should be good at and that others have managed to get their head around.

I think variations in social expectations does create tension, but not always bad. If society allows social mobility and the tension is not too great it can energise a nation and allow it to grow.

Both China and Japan tried to cut themselves off from the rest of the world only to have their nations fall backwards compared with the hustle and bustle of the trading European and American nations.

One wants to maintain a gentle simmer however and minimise the boil overs.

=][=
One of the reasons touted in getting rid of the Euro is the ability of nations to manage their debt by inflation... just remember it might be currency speculators doing the managing and the damaging instead.

I think governments need to look into more ways to cool off or warm up an economy instead of very broad measures like currency devaluation or increasing interest rates... what those tools could be well I'm not an economist... but it would be nicer to see some scapel instruments used rather then sledgehammers... I'm also against the manner in which interest rates are changed based on changes in the CPI due to increases in non-discretionary parts of the economy... raise petrol, CPI goes up therefore interest goes up because CPI rose... that and banks at least here raise and lower there interest rates based on the world economy not the local one.

[Furunculus]

Both China and Japan tried to cut themselves off from the rest of the world only to have their nations fall backwards compared with the hustle and bustle of the trading European and American nations.


you're conflating not wanting to be part of a federal entity with being insular and isolationist.

that is rather absurd, as we are one of the most open economies in the world, and already have free movement of people and goods within the european common market. britain isn't going to join the federal party, but many of the eurozone might if the currency is to survive, so it's about time that their governments sought mandate from their peoples don't you think?



One of the reasons touted in getting rid of the Euro is the ability of nations to manage their debt by inflation... just remember it might be currency speculators doing the managing and the damaging instead.


and to set an interest rate appropriate to that economies stage in its economic cycle. interests rates in the eurozone have been set to german preferences, i.e. too low for the rest, hence rampant borrowing from the olive nations that realised they'd never had it so good!

[Papewaio]

you're conflating not wanting to be part of a federal entity with being insular and isolationist.

that is rather absurd, as we are one of the most open economies in the world, and already have free movement of people and goods within the european common market. britain isn't going to join the federal party, but many of the eurozone might if the currency is to survive, so it's about time that their governments sought mandate from their peoples don't you think?


No what I'm worried about is too much "me-ism" and a potential backlash/over correction caused by over eager politicians who aren't the most subtle at times particularly when trying to read the murky crystal ball of opinion polls. The federated version I was thinking of was soverign nations check, with the EU politicans elected directly by the people. Allow a lot of autonomy for defence, eductation and hospitals, just try and unite the economy (but allow the people who are deciding this to be directly voted upon).

I think a mandate from their peoples should have been sought first and foremost before they let other countries meddle with their economic policies... which obviously effect their quality of life... not sure if I would be a fan of diminished soverignty for soverigns.

[Furunculus]

The federated version I was thinking of was soverign nations check, with the EU politicans elected directly by the people.

Small problem; no-one wants it.*



* other than beskar and six other people.

[Kralizec]

olive nations

I'm writing that one down.

Your Telegraph article is pretty selective in translating bits of Wullf's words. His full speech:
http://www.bundespraesident.de/SharedDocs/Reden/DE/Christian-Wulff/Reden/2011/08/110824-Wirtschaftsnobelpreistraeger.html

Was wird da eigentlich verlangt? Mit wem würden Sie persönlich einen gemeinsamen Kredit aufnehmen? Auf wen soll Ihre Bonität zu Ihren Lasten ausgedehnt werden? Für wen würden Sie persönlich bürgen? Und warum? Für die eigenen Kinder – hoffentlich ja! Für die Verwandtschaft – da wird es schon schwieriger. Vielleicht würden wir bürgen, wenn nur so der andere die Chance bekommt, wieder auf die eigenen Füße zu kommen. Sonst doch nur dann, wenn wir wüssten, dass wir uns nicht übernehmen und die Bürgschaft in unserem, dessen und dem gemeinsamen Interesse ist. Auch der Bürge kann sich unmoralisch verhalten, wenn er die Insolvenz nur hinauszögert.

Paraphrased:
Would you put forward garantues for your children? Hopefully yes! For other relatives this question is more difficult. Perhaps we will lend garantues, when this is the only way to help the other get back on his feet. But only if it's in ours, theirs and the common interest. Even the garantuer can act unethically, when all he does is postpone insolvency.

Erst recht, wenn die obersten Währungshüter dafür auch noch weit über ihr Mandat hinausgehen und massiv Staatsanleihen - derzeit im Volumen von über 110 Milliarden Euro - aufkaufen. Dies kann auf Dauer nicht gut gehen und kann allenfalls übergangsweise toleriert werden. Auch die Währungshüter müssen schnell zu den vereinbarten Grundsätzen zurückkehren.

...the "currency guardian" (ECB) goes far beyond it's mandate by buying massive amounts of government bonds - exceeding 110 billion EURo. This can't go well in the long run and can only be tolerated as a transitional measure. The [ECB], too, must soon return to the agreed/established principles.

Und einen weiteren Befund finde ich bemerkenswert: Für die europäischen Länder ist ein enger Zusammenhang zwischen der Lebenszufriedenheit und dem Vertrauen in die Mitmenschen gemessen worden. Einander Vertrauen zu schenken, ehrlich miteinander zu sein, ist die Grundlage für menschliches Wohlbefinden, für Kooperation und Zusammenhalt. Gerade hier schließt sich der Kreis zur monetären Wirtschaft. Einander Kredit gewähren ist die Grundlage für eine funktionierende Marktwirtschaft und solides Wachstum. Auf Vertrauen kommt es an. Wir müssen ehrlich miteinander und mit uns selbst sein.

One other conclusion I find worth mentioning: for the European countries there is a narrow correlation between satisfaction in life and trust in the fellow man. To trust one another, to be honest with eachother, is the foundation of human welfare, for cooperation and cohesion. This is the exact point where the economic circle closes. To give eachother credit is the foundation of a functioning market economy and a solid growth rate. It depends on trust. We must be honest with eachother and ourselves.

....

That's just a few bits, of course. I've read the entire speech, and while it does contain criticism, it seems to me that the Telegraph has misrepresented it.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I think a mandate from their peoples should have been sought first and foremost before they let other countries meddle with their economic policies... which obviously effect their quality of life... not sure if I would be a fan of diminished soverignty for soverigns.

This has been the British gripe for about 20 years, it's not EU integration per se Brits don't like, it's the fact that no one asked us.

[gaelic cowboy]

The federated version I was thinking of was soverign nations check, with the EU politicans elected directly by the people.


I can guarantee you that no one wants that here at all.

1921 for dominion status and 1948 for the declaration of the republic, it not long enough ago to be complacent about it, people are still very twitchy about having our own government. (hence all the NO votes and the crises that went with them)

No will be NO the next time just wait and see.

[Papewaio]

Free trade does not require the EU. Freedom of movement... well that is just a reciprocal visa arrangement... no need for an EU.

National budgets are what I elect my government to handle. I don't agree with the idea of having another nation decide my countries budget or a group of indirectly elected individuals doing so either.

I can understand loans between nations requiring it to be traded in a certain currency or bullion.

Having a bunch of rules that even the best economies don't follow either means the rules are stupid or there is no intention of following the rules. With no way or will to enforce rules, it seems stupid to create them in the first place. So it looks like all the worst attributes of government have been created. A bureaucracy for the pure sake of itself to make rules to keep itself in power that are of little to no benefit to anyone, with the political echelon selected by themselves... at least Napoleon and Hitler had pretty uniforms.

[Furunculus]

Free trade does not require the EU. Freedom of movement... well that is just a reciprocal visa arrangement... no need for an EU.

National budgets are what I elect my government to handle. I don't agree with the idea of having another nation decide my countries budget or a group of indirectly elected individuals doing so either.

I can understand loans between nations requiring it to be traded in a certain currency or bullion.

Having a bunch of rules that even the best economies don't follow either means the rules are stupid or there is no intention of following the rules. With no way or will to enforce rules, it seems stupid to create them in the first place. So it looks like all the worst attributes of government have been created. A bureaucracy for the pure sake of itself to make rules to keep itself in power that are of little to no benefit to anyone, with the political echelon selected by themselves... at least Napoleon and Hitler had pretty uniforms.

quite, i was perfectly content with the European Economic Community, precursor to the European Community, which itself was the precursor of today's EU.

[Fragony]

Finland says screw you to that Flemish ferret and his band. Extra cheese?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

So it looks like all the worst attributes of government have been created. A bureaucracy for the pure sake of itself to make rules to keep itself in power that are of little to no benefit to anyone, with the political echelon selected by themselves... at least Napoleon and Hitler had pretty uniforms.

There you go, welcome to our world.

[Centurion1]

Huh? Did i not address your points or did i?

All i did was further explain what Sarmatian was stating. Which is directly in agreement with you. All you are demonstrating is that you do not read other peoples posts.

[Kagemusha]

All i did was further explain what Sarmatian was stating. Which is directly in agreement with you. All you are demonstrating is that you do not read other peoples posts.

The problem is that i dont agree with Sarmatian. He thinks that Greece should not leave Euro, while i have been advocating kicking out all the Southern European countries who are not following EMU guidelines for a very long time. Here is what he said:


Leaving the eurozone is not the solution. Being in EMU is what keeps Greek economy together at the moment. I'm really fascinated with the idea of Greece leaving euro and defaulting. It's basically saying, hey, have your economy crush and burn, let your GDP drop three times, have growth after ten years and proclaim victory but don't tell anyone that you need another 30 years of that growth to reach 2010 level of GDP. Brilliant indeed. In the meantime, enjoy being kicked out from just about any international financial institution and good luck with lawsuits.

Meanwhile, in the north, Germans are still angry because they still have to cover that loss. Even more French understand them completely.

So i find it rather hard to think that we agree on the matter.

[Centurion1]

I'm really fascinated with the idea of Greece leaving euro and defaulting. It's basically saying, hey, have your economy crush and burn, let your GDP drop three times, have growth after ten years and proclaim victory but don't tell anyone that you need another 30 years of that growth to reach 2010 level of GDP. Brilliant indeed. In the meantime, enjoy being kicked out from just about any international financial institution and good luck with lawsuits.

especially the last line..... I am not sure what sarmatian is proposing to be honest.

[Tellos Athenaios]

He says it's very stupid for Greece to leave the Euro and take 30 years to recover from the resulting backlash, instead of grin and bear it now. He is therefore in disagreement with Kagemusha who feels the other way: Greece is being torn apart by the market forces, the internal disagreements and the obligations towards the EU agreed to in exchange for a wasted money. So he thinks it better for all parties involved to cut their losses, and go their own ways.

[Adrian II]

He says it's very stupid for Greece to leave the Euro and take 30 years to recover from the resulting backlash, instead of grin and bear it now.

Thirty years? Where on earth did you get that idea?

Like I said before in the thread, Greece could and probably should do as Argentina did. The Wiki provides a good summary of the way Buenos Aires mastered the 2001 default by restructuring its $132 billion of sovereign debt and devaluing the peso.


Eduardo Duhalde finally managed to stabilise the situation to a certain extent, and called for elections. On May 25, 2003 President Néstor Kirchner took charge. Kirchner kept Duhalde's Minister of Economy, Roberto Lavagna, in his post. Lavagna, a respected economist with centrist views, showed a considerable aptitude at managing the crisis, with the help of heterodox measures.

The economic outlook was completely different from that of the 1990s; the devalued peso made Argentine exports cheap and competitive abroad, while discouraging imports. In addition, the high price of soy in the international market produced an injection of massive amounts of foreign currency (with China becoming a major buyer of Argentina's soy products).

The government encouraged import substitution and accessible credit for businesses, staged an aggressive plan to improve tax collection, and set aside large amounts of money for social welfare, while controlling expenditure in other fields.[citation needed]

As a result of the administration's productive model and controlling measures (selling reserve dollars in the public market), the peso slowly revalued, reaching a 3-to-1 rate to the dollar. Agricultural exports grew and tourism returned.

AII

[Tellos Athenaios]

Thirty years? Where on earth did you get that idea?

When I explained what I think Sarmatian meant based on what Sarmation wrote, I suppose I got that 30 from here:

but don't tell anyone that you need another 30 years of that growth to reach 2010 level of GDP.

Though, as I was just informed in another thread, I am wrong on the Internet. ~;)

[Papewaio]

What is Greece's export commodities?

Tourism alone could be a boon if it was cheap enough to go to...

But that kind of relies on other nations having enough citizens with cash to spend there.

If they don't have commodities then it will be a longer haul as they will need to create a reliable and competitive service industry... A Greek solar powered data centre perhaps

[Adrian II]

What is Greece's export commodities?

Textiles, pharmaceuticals and farm products mainly.

AII

[rory_20_uk]

What is Greece's export commodities?

Tourism alone could be a boon if it was cheap enough to go to...

But that kind of relies on other nations having enough citizens with cash to spend there.

If they don't have commodities then it will be a longer haul as they will need to create a reliable and competitive service industry... A Greek solar powered data centre perhaps

They need to sort out their ossified laws in the first instance, and then their decrepit infrastructure in the second. Solar power? Possibly - but can their powerlines take it?

~:smoking:

[Adrian II]

They need to sort out their ossified laws in the first instance, and then their decrepit infrastructure in the second. Solar power? Possibly - but can their powerlines take it?

~:smoking:

Their laws are up to par. The problem is that they have a parallel society mired in corruption, including a black market that is estimated at 25% of the whole economy.

AII

[rory_20_uk]

No they're not. They still have monopolies that restrict access to several industries.

And I would argue that if the laws are not able to prevent the corruption and black market then the legal system is not up to par - if they're not being enforced they're not really laws.

~:smoking:

[InsaneApache]

What is Greece's export commodities?

Tourism alone could be a boon if it was cheap enough to go to...

But that kind of relies on other nations having enough citizens with cash to spend there.

If they don't have commodities then it will be a longer haul as they will need to create a reliable and competitive service industry... A Greek solar powered data centre perhaps

I'm sorry to say this as I like the Greeks but a lot of them are idiots in the original definition. As footfall dropped as the recession started to bite, what do you think the traders did? Well you'd expect them to stimulate demand by discounting and special deals, wouldn't you?

Nope not the Greeks, they put the prices up.

Not big and not clever Costas.

[gaelic cowboy]

I'm sorry to say this as I like the Greeks but a lot of them are idiots in the original definition. As footfall dropped as the recession started to bite, what do you think the traders did? Well you'd expect them to stimulate demand by discounting and special deals, wouldn't you?

Nope not the Greeks, they put the prices up.

Not big and not clever Costas.

Yea cept sometimes that's not about business but about codding the examiner or receiver who comes in to sort out a failing business and pay off creditors.

They claim larger rents or costs etc etc and suddenly were all getting 20cent in the euro for what were owed.

[InsaneApache]

I wish I could find that post I made a year back when I replied to Louis that Greece was a basket case.

[gaelic cowboy]

I wish I could find that post I made a year back when I replied to Louis that Greece was a basket case.

technically Greece has a bigger economy than about 15 other EU members including Finland (at least last year it did)

[Louis VI the Fat]

I wish I could find that post I made a year back when I replied to Louis that Greece was a basket case.I remember the post well.


It was one of those incoherent rants by you naysayers. Something about Greece being an economic basket case, living on borrowed time, with neither proper government oversight nor private discipline. Or some such fascism.

Fortunately I was around to explain in a simple English that even you foolish Eurosceptics can understand that the Greek standard of living by purchasing power was high, that the EU had been instrumental in creating a stable and sound Greece, and that all of this was owing in no small part to the Euro having stabilised the Greek economy.



Louis - just you wait, once I've seized control of the EUSSR, you will all come to regret your openly debated scepticism.

[Montmorency]

Comrade Louis, I have dedicated a poem to you. I hope it fits the aesthetic of our new European republic.

It goes, "Louis is the fist in our breast, the beating heart..."

:)

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Louis - just you wait, once I've seized control of the EUSSR, you will all come to regret your openly debated scepticism.

You may not get that chance at this rate.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8728628/Euro-bail-out-in-doubt-as-hysteria-sweeps-Germany.html


BOOM

[Adrian II]

You may not get that chance at this rate.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8728628/Euro-bail-out-in-doubt-as-hysteria-sweeps-Germany.html


BOOM

As usual it's the Torygraph that's going hysterical, not Germany. The issue isn't even a topic in the political columns of the German papers. Of course as we all know the stiff upper lip has long crossed the Channel and now resides in Germany...

AII

[Furunculus]

As usual it's the Torygraph that's going hysterical, not Germany. The issue isn't even a topic in the political columns of the German papers. Of course as we all know the stiff upper lip has long crossed the Channel and now resides in Germany...

AII

of course it isn't discussed, germany has an acute embarrassment about expressing any kind of right-wing/euroscetpic viewpoint, i once posted a der spiegel article talking about the former.

it is considered uncouth even to admit to such thoughts, as they betray the adopted social-democratic creed that is a public demonstration of their fitness to be among civilised society.

doesn't mean they don't harbour eurosceptic thoughts however!

i am finding my time in poland amusing as well as pleasant, for while as a guest i am far too polite to talk about religion or politics my status as an outsider makes it tempting for people i have never met to discuss both even when they are not normally known to do so.

i have some bad news for those touting a euro identity; it doesn't exist in Poland, the fierce manner in which the statement "i am polish!" is driven home is quite astonishing.

i realise i am often branded a hyper-nationalist autarkic fruit-cake, but the level of my passion is positivley anodyne compared to theirs, but maybe that is because their identity is something so much more keenly felt given neighbours and history.

maybe we brits are an island race after all............

enjoy, i'm certainly having a giggle watching the dreams-of-man crumble to dust from a nation that has just shelved its euro ambitions.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

As usual it's the Torygraph that's going hysterical, not Germany. The issue isn't even a topic in the political columns of the German papers. Of course as we all know the stiff upper lip has long crossed the Channel and now resides in Germany...

AII

I'm just enjoying myself, it's that or cry.

The mathematics are no longer there, the bailout machinery cannot be forced through, it must be adopted by treaty and at least the German Constitutional Court will require a democratic sanction.

I may actually see the death of the Eurocrats in my lifetime and their replacement by politicians.

[Kralizec]

German courts, including the Bundesverfassungsgericht, have a history of taking political expediency and the foreign policy interests of Germany into account. Take it from somebody who is familiar with their constitutional law (or used to be, anyway) and can actually read their language, including legal jargon.

Or form your opinions by taking everything the Telegraph writes at face value, whatever. I'll just wait and see.

[Kagemusha]

That piece of news is not death of Euro or EU. It is just that if there is wish for either to remain, or possibly further integrate.The whole system has to be overhauled and this time thinking should be done first before decisions are made. If there is wish for European integration. It has to be done first on smaller level, where it is more easy for people to adjust in any kind of integration. For example i would not have anything against an Nordic Union. Similarly the economical integration has to first happen more locally and so that the economies participating are rather similar.
The whole problematic with EU is that several European leaders have been too shortsighted and greedy to achieve something historical in too short of time, so it could be said: It was they who drove home the integration of Europe into a Federal state. It is simply not going to happen like that.

[Furunculus]

German courts, including the Bundesverfassungsgericht, have a history of taking political expediency and the foreign policy interests of Germany into account. Take it from somebody who is familiar with their constitutional law (or used to be, anyway) and can actually read their language, including legal jargon.

Or form your opinions by taking everything the Telegraph writes at face value, whatever. I'll just wait and see.

so you are willing to bet that the judgement on the 7th, and the following vote later in september in the bundestag, will be sufficiently unequivocal in support of economic union that the fundamental disintegration of the dream held by european transnational progressives can be halted, and normal service resumed towards ever-deeper-union...........?

That is a bold bet!

[Kralizec]

I rarely engage in bets, and would never do so on the internet.

Let me rephrase your question: is it likely that the constitutional court will rule that the EFSF violates the constitution?

Answer: no.

[Adrian II]

of course it isn't discussed, germany has an acute embarrassment about expressing any kind of right-wing/euroscetpic viewpoint, i once posted a der spiegel article talking about the former.

it is considered uncouth even to admit to such thoughts, as they betray the adopted social-democratic creed that is a public demonstration of their fitness to be among civilised society.

LOL. Do you speak or read German? Watch German tv on a weekly basis? Have you even been to Germany, ever?

AII

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

LOL. Do you speak or read German? Watch German tv on a weekly basis? Have you even been to Germany, ever?

AII

No, we only meet the Germans who flee the persecution of the Europhiliacs to Blighty, last bastion of Sanity and Freedom.

[Adrian II]

No, we only meet the Germans who flee the persecution of the Europhiliacs to Blighty, last bastion of Sanity and Freedom.

Wait till they see your trains and drop dead laughing.

AII

[Fisherking]

Wait till they see your trains and drop dead laughing.

AII


Or the Royal Mail! Is that a real mail service or is it just to annoy people?

[Furunculus]

That piece of news is not death of Euro or EU. It is just that if there is wish for either to remain, or possibly further integrate.The whole system has to be overhauled and this time thinking should be done first before decisions are made. If there is wish for European integration. It has to be done first on smaller level, where it is more easy for people to adjust in any kind of integration. For example i would not have anything against an Nordic Union. Similarly the economical integration has to first happen more locally and so that the economies participating are rather similar.

no problem with this.


The whole problematic with EU is that several European leaders have been too shortsighted and greedy to achieve something historical in too short of time, so it could be said: It was they who drove home the integration of Europe into a Federal state. It is simply not going to happen like that.

no, where the problem lies is in confusing means with ends, because of the threat of WW3.

the end was supposed to be peace-in-our-time, the means to get there was european integration.

now we get ever-deeper-union regardless of the fact that it is creating more cross cultural tension, not less.

[Furunculus]

LOL. Do you speak or read German? Watch German tv on a weekly basis?

AII

nope, but i read der-spiegel daily, and have done for five years now including their frequent reviews of other papers editorials, which is where i found the article on the polite silence of the mainstream conservative/right. it is linked somewhere in this forum, but cannot find it now, do you dispute it veracity or its conclusions?

your point?


Have you even been to Germany, ever?

AII

frequently, for business and pleasure, in fact i am off to nuremberg for four days in novemeber again. i will probably be back in hannover in march 2012 too.

your point?

[Kagemusha]

no problem with this.



no, where the problem lies is in confusing means with ends, because of the threat of WW3.

the end was supposed to be peace-in-our-time, the means to get there was european integration.

now we get ever-deeper-union regardless of the fact that it is creating more cross cultural tension, not less.

Sorry, but i am not buying the idea that France and Germany are driving the deeper integration, because of mutual fear of each other. Preventing war between European powers might have been one of the original ideas of EU, but its outdated by now.

[Furunculus]

Sorry, but i am not buying the idea that France and Germany are driving the deeper integration, because of mutual fear of each other. Preventing war between European powers might have been one of the original ideas of EU, but its outdated by now.

it should be outdated, in that i agree, but if so what other explanation is there for the fact that emotion has trumped logic in pushing ever-deeper-union when it's is now running counter to the original purpose of the union in the first place?

why is a federal union even wanted? let alone necessary!

[Kagemusha]

it should be outdated, in that i agree, but if so what other explanation is there for the fact that emotion has trumped logic in pushing ever-deeper-union when it's is now running counter to the original purpose of the union in the first place?

why is a federal union even wanted? let alone necessary!

Im afraid there is quite primitive human behavior behind it. The word is power. The dream of united powerful European federal state. A superpower both economically and militaritically. The wish that we would be important and strong and others would have to take us seriously. I am afraid that self pity, hunger of power and influence might be the key things behind the any means necessary take on integration. The thing is that i dont believe it is not Nations like Germany and France that grave for such, as the political support is not there, but individuals.In other words politicians who want to rule a super power. no matter what. I doubt any of them would admit it, maybe even to themselves, but that is my opinion about it.
Another simple reason might be that this could be issue to some, which they just cant admit failure.It is impossible for them.Such a grand vision, just cant fail.And that my friend, is the main failure in itself.

[Furunculus]

Im afraid there is quite primitive human behavior behind it. The word is power. The dream of united powerful European federal state. A superpower both economically and militaritically. The wish that we would be important and strong and others would have to take us seriously. I am afraid that self pity, hunger of power and influence might be the key things behind the any means necessary take on integration. The thing is that i dont believe it is not Nations like Germany and France that grave for such, as the political support is not there, but individuals.In other words politicians who want to rule a super power. no matter what. I doubt any of them would admit it, maybe even to themselves, but that is my opinion about it.

but our systems of representative democracy are complex beasts, deliberately so with many checks and balances to prevent just such powerhungry individual from grasping untrammelled power, or wielding unconstrained influence, surely it cannot be so simple? i smell ideology at work; the misanthropic fear of the transnational progressives for whom humanity is but a morass of base creatures subject to primitive animal instincts, and thus in need of a complex architecture to hold those dark urges in place.


Another simple reason might be that this could be issue to some, which they just cant admit failure.It is impossible for them.Such a grand vision, just cant fail.And that my friend, is the main failure in itself.

on that i agree!

[Montmorency]

humanity is but a base creature subject to animal instincts



"Base" is merely a mechanism of control, but otherwise this is true.


, and thus in need of a complex architecture to hold those urges in place.

Won't help.

[Kagemusha]

but our systems of representative democracy are complex beasts, deliberately so with many checks and balances to prevent just such powerhungry individual from grasping untrammelled power, or wielding unconstrained influence, surely it cannot be so simple? i smell ideology at work; the misanthropic fear of the transnational progressives for whom humanity is but a morass of base creatures subject to primitive animal instincts, and thus in need of a complex architecture to hold those dark urges in place.

Now i did not talk anything concerning the motivation for gaining more power. The aims to use that power for migh be good ones, or bad ones.That is impossible to say, but the need for more power seems evident. Power in itself has no moral.It is a tool, but wish to gain that power no matter of the consequences speaks ill about those who long for it so much.

[Adrian II]

your point?

I speak to Germans in German regularly and they have no trouble expressing their doubts about the euro or EU policies. It's a myth that Germans aren't Euroskeptiker, says this study (http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/03609.pdf) based on opinion polls. The FDP is quite agressively euroskeptic these days, if you haven't noticed- and you should have since you speak to German businessmen regularly.

AII

[Furunculus]

I speak to Germans in German regularly and they have no trouble expressing their doubts about the euro or EU policies. It's a myth that Germans aren't Euroskeptiker, says this study (http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/03609.pdf) based on opinion polls. The FDP is quite agressively euroskeptic these days, if you haven't noticed- and you should have since you speak to German businessmen regularly.

AII

perhaps there is something in what kagemusha says about there being a divide between what it is acceptable to say publicly in politics, and what can be said in private, in which case euroskepticism is somewhat removed from conservative/right topics, but it should be noted that this transition is recent, particularly so in the FDP.

[Adrian II]

perhaps there is something in what kagemusha says about there being a divide between what it is acceptable to say publicly in politics, and what can be said in private, in which case euroskepticism is somewhat removed from conservative/right topics, but it should be noted that this transition is recent, particularly so in the FDP.

The Greens have long been euroskeptical, even when they were in government, and they were quite open about it. They practically 'owned' euroskepticism. The German Social Democrats were always among the leading proponents of 'Europe'. The German conservatives have long been concerned with the issue of the future reunification of their country for which they 'needed Europe'. Since 1991 this motif is irrelevant and Euroskepticism is on the rise on the right.

AII

[Furunculus]

cheers. :)

dan hannan reckons eurobonds are further up the policy agenda than is being admitted to righ now......... as is usual with euro-politics:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100102420/eurobonds-are-on-the-way-whatever-mrs-merkel-says/

[Adrian II]

cheers. :)

dan hannan reckons eurobonds are further up the policy agenda than is being admitted to righ now......... as is usual with euro-politics:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100102420/eurobonds-are-on-the-way-whatever-mrs-merkel-says/

God, Dan Hannan and his private crusade again...

AII

[Furunculus]

probably the only decent politician in brussels. ;)

[Kagemusha]

The Greens have long been euroskeptical, even when they were in government, and they were quite open about it. They practically 'owned' euroskepticism. The German Social Democrats were always among the leading proponents of 'Europe'. The German conservatives have long been concerned with the issue of the future reunification of their country for which they 'needed Europe'. Since 1991 this motif is irrelevant and Euroskepticism is on the rise on the right.

AII

Maybe here in Finland we are very strange compared to mainland Europe. Here both social democrats and moderate, central party, have been not outright sceptic, but rather cautious about EU, while the Liberal right wing Kokoomus has been the strongest advocate of the Union. the populist conservative right party "true Finns" is on the other hand more then sceptic, rather outright hostile towards EU.

Also to the matter.The former CEO of German BDE Hans Olaf Henkel advocated today on interview for Financial times that the Euro should be broken up in two. He had a good idea of splitting the monetary Union into two, so the the stronger economies could keep a stronger currency and the ones that are in poor condition would benefit from weaker currency.That would be a solution i would accept.

[Furunculus]

bundesbank next in line to take a pop at the euro:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8736194/EU-law-gutted-by-bail-outs-growls-Bundesbank.html

[phonicsmonkey]

Also to the matter.The former CEO of German BDE Hans Olaf Henkel advocated today on interview for Financial times that the Euro should be broken up in two. He had a good idea of splitting the monetary Union into two, so the the stronger economies could keep a stronger currency and the ones that are in poor condition would benefit from weaker currency.That would be a solution i would accept.

This will only work so long as the relativity within the economies of the two sets of countries remains constant, which of course it will not. As soon is there is divergence (eg. like that between Germany and Greece in the past cycle) there will be another set of fiscal problems within the shared currency, whichever one it is.

[Furunculus]

roger bootle on the legal nonsense about it being impossible to exit the euro:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/8740551/When-it-comes-to-the-crunch-with-the-euro-economics-will-trump-law.html

[Kagemusha]

Most experts think that it will take less then two weeks for Greece to go bancrupt.It is kind of interesting how during the last couple weeks, both politics and media have just started to get silent and look somewhere else rather then about the whole affair.

[Furunculus]

it might be quicker; greece is beginning to realise to that the bailout 2.0 serves no other purpose than to persuade the IMF to keep paying out on bailout 1.0 (no money will EVER be received from part-deux), and that any money received serves no other purpose than to be recycled back into northern european banks (to make sure they survive greece's fall).

[Louis VI the Fat]

Most experts think that it will take less then two weeks for Greece to go bancrupt.It is kind of interesting how during the last couple weeks, both politics and media have just started to get silent and look somewhere else rather then about the whole affair.Europe is getting fed up with Greece.

Ireland and Portugal are going through very rough times. But they do what is necessary. They deserve our support.

Not Greece. In Greece, Europe is still dealing with the same lying statisticians. The same corrupt, self-serving politicians. They don't want to be bailed out.
Also, ever since day one of its membership, Greece has played the same game of milking Europe for what it's worth. They have come to think, based on actual experience, that the patience and stupidity of Europe is infinite. Add in the costs of a Greek bankryptcy for Europe, and it is clear why the Greeks think they can use this crisis to steal even more money from Europe than before.


Autists.

There is no electoral support anywhere for support for Greeks. It is against any electoral instinct that politicians throughout Europe are still trying to do the responsible thing and keep Greece - an entire European country - afloat. This sense of responsibility is not infinite, there comes a time when one realises that the last effort has been made. There is nobody in Greece to work with. The Greeks have neither the will, nor even the capacity to change their ways. (Capable civil servants, non-politicised semi-governmental agencies, at least some rationally functioning non-corrupt segments of state)

[Fragony]

But we aren't really helping out Greece are we, we are bailing out the banks, again. Feel sorry for the ordinary Greeks as it ain't their fault, they work more hours than us and especially more than you strikehappy Frenchies, they just get the bill. As we do here in the swamp

EUSSR, kill it with fire

[rory_20_uk]

But we aren't really helping out Greece are we, we are bailing out the banks, again. Feel sorry for the ordinary Greeks as it ain't their fault, they work more hours than us and especially more than you strikehappy Frenchies, they just get the bill. As we do here in the swamp

EUSSR, kill it with fire

No, Greeks retire earlier than anyone else in Europe, possibly the world. They get a 90% pension.
They avoid taxes wherever possible
Their elected leaders lied to get into the EU in the first place. Upon entering they went on a massive spending spree, including the Olympics. There was a distinct lack of protest during the good times.

~:smoking:

[InsaneApache]

Pater's seen and had enough. He's coming back to blighty in March.

[gaelic cowboy]

Europe is getting fed up with Greece.

Ireland and Portugal are going through very rough times. But they do what is necessary. They deserve our support.

Not Greece. In Greece, Europe is still dealing with the same lying statisticians. The same corrupt, self-serving politicians. They don't want to be bailed out.
Also, ever since day one of its membership, Greece has played the same game of milking Europe for what it's worth. They have come to think, based on actual experience, that the patience and stupidity of Europe is infinite. Add in the costs of a Greek bankryptcy for Europe, and it is clear why the Greeks think they can use this crisis to steal even more money from Europe than before.


Autists.

There is no electoral support anywhere for support for Greeks. It is against any electoral instinct that politicians throughout Europe are still trying to do the responsible thing and keep Greece - an entire European country - afloat. This sense of responsibility is not infinite, there comes a time when one realises that the last effort has been made. There is nobody in Greece to work with. The Greeks have neither the will, nor even the capacity to change their ways. (Capable civil servants, non-politicised semi-governmental agencies, at least some rationally functioning non-corrupt segments of state)

To be honest you have to admire the :daisy: on them fellas holding the entire EU (and the world) to ransom like they are. I cannot see them paying anything back at all at all, sure Greece only exports about maybe a tenth that Ireland does.

If you took every single non-agricultural export and burned them on the docks in Dublin there would still be about 7-8 billion in agri products to export which is half the total Greek exports.

[phonicsmonkey]

This is a controversial viewpoint but all the anti-Greek rhetoric here and elsewhere ignores the basic economic and political facts of the matter.

Inviting (beseeching!) the Greeks into monetary union in the clear knowledge that their economy was not homogenous with those of the larger European nations like (eg) Germany was a political decision and one which German politicians of the time were falling over themselves to make in the cause of the feted "European project" which was to end all war, grant kittens to every citizen, teach esperanto to everyone etc etc.

The direct economic impact of this was that Greece, its banks and citizens could suddenly borrow money at interest rates substantially lower than was appropriate to their economy. In practical effect, the EU rapidly and dramatically increased the money supply to Greece and kept the fire hydrant on for many years. It is a basic principle of economics that if the money supply is high and the capacity of the economy to absorb this money in productive investment is low, asset bubbles will be created, in this case a gigantic bubble in Greek credit.

Yes, there is a cultural issue around corruption and non-payment of taxes but blaming individual Greeks for this is at best wilfully ignorant and at worst politically-motivated fabrication. It is a failure of governments and political leadership across Europe (including, of course, in Greece) that is to blame for the current issues in Greece and elsewhere.

As a rather more controversial addendum I would like to suggest it is unreasonable for Germans to be self-righteous about the issue of bailing out Greece when in effect Germany itself was bailed out after the Second World War when its war debts were forgiven by the victorious allies. This freed up the German economy to restructure and invest for the future, the fruits of which have been enjoyed for the past couple of decades. Compare the German situation with that of the UK, whose war debts were certainly not forgiven, resulting in a loss of economic stature and global influence on a grand scale.

[Papewaio]

So USA had there zero doc home loans and the EU Greece.

These banks that are getting government welfare... Are their execs and senior staff still getting bonuses?