Threat of Attack

[Maltz]

Curious about the "Threat of Attack" message (screenshot now included) we receive at the beginning of a turn. From my limited experience:

(1) The subject of the threat ALWAYS declares war on the next turn. I have read people successfully delay this attack by drastically improving the relationship with the subject, though.
(2) My border province with the subject of the threat is undefended at the time, although I could reinforce it in a turn.
(3) The subject's invasion army is within my clan's view (by trade route, ninja, etc.)
(4) I only receive "threat of attack" at most once per campaign. Sometimes not at all.

What's your experience with threat of attack?

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=4588&d=1331596314

[Fagar]

O.K Wow..I have played approximately a dozen campaigns now and NEVER received this message...
Now I want to though!!!:yes:

[Jacobin]

I get it at least once every campaign - don't know if its more likely at Legendary though.

Current campaign as Chokosabe it was the Myoshi who went from very friendly allies to indifferent and I was able to bribe them to not attack for several turns until I'd reinforced my garrisons in Tosa and Sanuki.

Also had it from the Sagara who were just friendly and non-allied and again they didn't attack for several more turns even though I don't think I did anything diplomatically.

In a previous campaign IIRC I paid a clan with this message back to friendly again and they didn't attack until Realm Divide

In neither case did I leave any neighbouring province unoccupied so the trigger is a mystery.

[Jarmam]

O.K Wow..I have played approximately a dozen campaigns now and NEVER received this message...
Now I want to though!!!:yes:

I also feel left out. I did a threat of attack once, got the sick diplomacy penalty and forgot all about it as I have yet to be threatened myself. And now I want to :( Maybe it requires a very specific condition to be met?

[Maltz]

Hm I never linked this message to the diplomatic "threaten", thinking this is just the game being user friendly (to give us a warning). But now it makes some sense. Some clans will threaten you then attack - although they have no request at all. Some clans will simply attack.

[Jacobin]

Well 'threat of attack' certainly shows up as a hefty (something like -35 IIRC?) penalty to your relationship with that clan so I presume its actually a random (?) event rather than just a signifier of a generally worsening relationship.

And even before RD I've been attacked by formerly friendly clans with no threat warning at all.

I am pretty sure its not caused by leaving a neighbouring province undefended though - I got it as the Oda from the Kitabatake and from bitter experience I never leave Owari defended by less than half a stack.

[Jarmam]

Ah, I think it's me confusing two things. You were referring to the "we have recieved disturbing news, my lord, clan x intends to exploit our current weakness and declare war"? In that case I've gotten it plenty of times and I've always linked it to a big presence of agents in the enemy lands or lands bordering them (Metsuke in my own provinces or Ninja in theirs). But I have no idea if thats the case or not.

The "threaten"-diplomacy tool I have only used once and only recieved once so it is indeed different than the helpful message.

[easytarget]

I've seen it from time to time. I've thrown money at it to make it go away when I'm flush with cash, which as it happens is quite often. And amusingly, the last time I had it come up I simply ignored it, and kept particular vigilance to the seas on each side (because with Nanban you can crush anything stupid enough to take you on) and intercepted a full stack floating my way and sank it. Events like that amuse me no end.

Cracked me up that a clan with no physical connection to where I was at the time province wise on the map was peeved enough to come at me, but then again, not all that surprised because even with the tech tree research that improves clan attitude towards you, no one on the map much likes Christians, and even less so when I'm inciting half the island and recreating the map in the image of one huge rebel army ripe for abuse.

[HopAlongBunny]

I've had that a cpl of times.

One example: Imagawa declared on me when I was playing Shimazu. I had no connection and it was early enough in the game I had no contact with them. Many turns later a fleet with a stack appeared off my southern coast. Doh!

Whoops! I went back and read the initial post; different situation entirely. Yes, I have had that as well. It seems to be triggered by weakness and/or a steadily declining relationship. I wouldn't be surprised if it is influenced by alliances or agreements with other parties. I wonder if the AI is sufficiently motivated to have one pay another to attack you.