Time For Some Predictions

[Gregoshi]

During the first month after release, what are your predictions for the Expansion with regards to the following questions:

1) Which of the new units do you think will be most popular in online play?

2) Which of the new units to you think will receive the most complaints about being too powerful and unbalancing the game?

3) Which unit, new or old, will win the title of "most worthless unit"?

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Gregoshi
A Member of Clan Doragon

[Dark Phoenix]

I have prediction for you Greg. Its that you will lose your first 10 games with the expansion. http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/biggrin.gif

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DoragonPhoenix of the Clan Doragon (http://clandragon2.homestead.com/Dragon01.html)

[Fatboy]

I predict that the often talked about (but few details known) multiplayer strategy game is never released!

[SlyClone2k]

I predict that some of the oldest strategists, some of the original old guard may return from the mists.
The shall return with the realisation that Shogun Total War is probably the greatest game ever made having played several others in their long absence.
They shall take to the battle fields with fresh joy and marvel at the wonderful work that Creative Assembly have provided and laugh in the face of those who still have nothing better to do than winge.

[Magyar Khan]

ha here u got ur first message http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/smile.gif

[Catiline]

Well Ashi crossbows sound good but i suspect they'll be useless.

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Unless the Persians fly away like birds, hide in the earth like mice, or leap into a lake like frogs, they will never see their homes again, but will die under our arrows

[Shiro]

1) Which of the new units do you think will be most popular in online play?

Mongol Heavy Cav for sure.

2) Which of the new units to you think will receive the most complaints about being too powerful and unbalancing the game?

Mongol Heavy Cav for sure.

3) Which unit, new or old, will win the title of "most worthless unit?

Battlefield Ninja.

Of course this is all gut feeling.

[Obake]

Gonna have to disagree with you Shiro! I'm thinking that the most versatile unit in the bunch is the Mongol Cav archers. Ranged fire as well as the ability to effectively engage in HTH combat is going to make them the most widely used of the new units.

Too powerful and unbalancing? I'll agree with you there. It may very well be that the Mongol Heavy Cav will earn this "award". It'll all depend on how they stack up to the Yari units. I have no problem with an H2 Mongol Hvy Cav unit taking out an H2 YS or Ashi unit, but the same Mongol Cav unit should not be taking out an H4 YS unit or an H6 Ashi. We'll have to wait and see.

As to the most worthless unit, I'm thinking it will have to be the Kensai. I just can't see spending the koku he's going to cost on a 1 man unit that can be taken out by ranged troops. Just not worth the risk. Sure he may kick butt in hth, but you have to get him there first. He may be more useful to a defender where he can be kept to the rear until you know where you want him.

[Vanya]

I think the Kensai will be the most useless unit (barring a bridge battle, of course). But with Mongol HC, they are hoof dirt.

I think the funniest unit will be the sanda boma, especially if what they say is true -- that they are erratic and can bomb themselves! I would roll laughing if I saw some sap bomb his own line and send them fleeing in terror even when I had not fired a single arrow or unsheathed a single blade!

HEHE You'd probably never find sanda bomas behind your front lines! HAHAHA

Or perhaps the Korean Skirmishers will win 'Most Useless Unit' awards...



[This message has been edited by Vanya (edited 06-06-2001).]

[Shiro]

I don't about question 1 Obake. I've seen some screens which show the Mongol Heavy Cav dominating.

http://pcmedia.ign.com/media/previews/image/shogunWE05-29013.jpg

[Obake]

Agreed Shiro, but we don't know what they were up against either. It is very possible that a large portion of those kills were against units like the Ashi x-bows or something similar. How well they'll stack up against strong units of Yari Sams remains to be seen!

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Obake

I warned you, but did you listen? Ohh, no...it's just a harmless little bunny, isn't it?

[Shiro]

And we don't know how much anything costs! http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/frown.gif

[Kelvar_Mongol]

I donno about Korean Skimishers...in AOK they were used as a Anti-Archer unit.
My be they will balanced the fact that Mongols don;t have a low cost foot archer unit. If it was to be a counter unit... I can see Big red "Cannon Fodder"s all over their Mons. Do they also have sheilds??than there is strong possiblilty that they are Counters and Thus a nice Useful addition...

Ok, Predictions:
1) I will invent the Warp Drive in 2067 and there will be a big Statue of me in Iowa.

2)Most Useful unit online and Campaign: Korean Guardsman, Potentially: head to head with Yari-Sam;Cheaper;Better armoured against Archers

3)Most Powerful and unbalanced: None, because no one strategy is dominating yet.

4)Most Worthless: Crossbow Ashigura: Utterly Useless in any situations(I couldn't think of one use that they are better(Cost Effective) at Something; Not even Historically accurate: Why Did They Bother?!

[solypsist]

the Mongol Cav is gonna be deadly. Notice inthe screenshot that some of the cav units are in wedge formation, which is a good sign of how the designers intend them to be used.
as for predictions, after so many months of speculation, im a bit worn out of guessing games.

[Gregoshi]

My predictions, but first some comments.

1) My thought behind this was to channel some unspend energy towards some creative thinking.
2) I specified "the first month" because tactics and perceptions will evolve as time goes on.

On to my predictions:

1)Most popular: Mongol Heavy Cavalry simply because everyone will want to try them out to see what they can do. Battlefield Ninja was a close second in my mind.

2) Too powerful/unbalancing: Battlefield Ninja. Simply their existence will impact tactics, whether they are really on the battlefield (and hiding) or not. I can see people taking only 14-15 units in a battle just to give the opponent the perception that BF ninja maybe "out there".

3) Most worthless: Korean Skirmishers. I see them as SA with fewer missiles, worse morale, and no HTH. I've got to be missing some key information on this unit because I can't believe a unit could be this weak.

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Gregoshi
A Member of Clan Doragon

[Magyar Khan]

the mongol rules http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/redface.gif)

i offer free insight of the mongol army by joining a game online. ask for it when i am online!

[Anssi Hakkinen]

IMHO, based on what we currently know, the MHC must get beaten by YS. They must. Otherwise, the entire paper-scissors-stone system is wrecked. And I can't think of any reason whatsoever why the devs would do it.

However, they *should* be able to beat NC, and possibly WM. That would be the ideal alternative. But, as always, we'll see.

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"6. Melyo: honor and glory."

[Vanya]

Quote Originally posted by Kelvar_Mongol:
4)Most Worthless: Crossbow Ashigura: Utterly Useless in any situations(I couldn't think of one use that they are better(Cost Effective) at Something; Not even Historically accurate: Why Did They Bother?! [/QUOTE]

I bet the crossbows are there to provide extra killing power against armored units. Thus, they will be deadly against any heavy cav -- Mongol or Jap, Naginata and guardsmen. I expect their range to be like that of the current arquebus (which is the shortest). This same concept has been used to balance out other games, so there is no reason to think it wont be the same here. So, expect these cheap bastids to dismount your mounted tin men!

[ShadeWraith]

I see the kensai as being a very useful unit to keep in reserve. Once hth combat has commenced, they can be deployed to plug gaps or prop up wavering units. It will be interesting to see if the ac can shoot through its own units like musks can at present, I dont expect them too. Which should make deployment of ranged troops a little more skillful.

L8r, Wraith

[Vanya]

Quote Originally posted by ShadeWraith:
I see the kensai as being a very useful unit to keep in reserve. Once hth combat has commenced, they can be deployed to plug gaps or prop up wavering units. It will be interesting to see if the ac can shoot through its own units like musks can at present, I dont expect them too. Which should make deployment of ranged troops a little more skillful.

L8r, Wraith [/QUOTE]


LOL

A musket ball is a soft wad of metal, like lead. So, when it hits the body, it deforms and creates monstrous wounds, often lethal. But the little crossbow arrows have a sharp point, so this will not happen. SOOO, the crossbow arrows SHOULD be able to go THROUGH your own men and continue forward with enough momentum to strike an enemy with lethal force. Just be careful what part of your Ashigaru you are attempting to aim through... http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/smile.gif http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/smile.gif http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/smile.gif

[Kelvar_Mongol]

Crossbows Ashi have low firing rate AND short range... So it is like a one shot Deal??? And I also have to deal with Them being in the front and panick and Cause a general rout?! Also how many shoots can they cut loose before an YariSam unit force them back???
Utterly useless... Unless they can mow people down like using MG34s or they have some "Spell" that can freeze the other guy so they can take their shots at the pinCushions
Other than that, I believe they are utterly useless..... It can't even be a counter to anything!!!.

[KumaRatta Yamamoto]

Prediction:

Starting june 29th, a lot of regular patrons of this forum will not be heard of for a few days for unexplained reasons.


KumaRatta Yamamoto (Emissary for the Ratta clan) www.rattaclan.homestead.com (http://www.rattaclan.homestead.com)

[ShadeWraith]

Vanya, thanks for the ballistics lecture http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/smile.gifWhat I was actually referring to was the IMO bug in the game whereby musk units can fire through their own troops and hit the enemy.Apparently without causing casualties in their own troops. This doesnt happen when using archers as firing into melee you are as likely to kill your own men as the enemy.

L8r, Wraith

[Vanya]

Thats a bug? I thought gun units could 'sharp-shoot' through natural gaps between your own men to hit those beyond them! Kinda like

"Uh, dont move! Lemme shoot that bastid through your legs, over the next guy's head, and to the right of the next guy's arm..."

Sure its like shooting a marble through a 1-inch hole at 200 paces... but heck! they are sharpshooters, right?

(Vanya makes a note of the impending lecture on the accuracy of smoothbore weapons...)

[This message has been edited by Vanya (edited 06-08-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Vanya (edited 06-08-2001).]

[Lord Aeon]

I have to disagree about the crossbow ashis... i think a good use for them would be as a flanker, or a unit used to soften up charging samurai units - assuming they have decent speed. In fact, my guess is that they will permanently be in skirmish mode, and their speed better be good, because they'll be doing a LOT of running.

Plus, they'll be cheaper than samurai archers. Hopefully.

i think that all of the units will have good uses... but i'm a little skeptical about the battlefield ninja in that they will only be useful as sacrifice units in an ambush... imagine defending a provice from a hill and laying battlefield ninja in the only decent approach path... the ninja soften your foes up a bit... you then drop arrows from your perch... by the time your opponents reachthe foot of the hill, they'll be ready to rout.

However, in standalone combat, those ninja will probably be more like YA... easy to rout and fairly easy to catch.

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"You have offended my family, and you have offended a Shaolin temple."

[Teng Fuh]

1) Mongol light cav

2) MHC or Kensai

3) Korean target practice, errr...ahem skirmisher

I love the screenshot!

The Fuh http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/smile.gif

[Kraellin]

oh my...
oh my my my....

i can see that my kill ratio is going to go up quite a bit when the pack comes out. some of you have missed the most obvious tactic in the game when considering these new units....oh my my my. ;)

and those same folks dont even want to play me when the online camp game comes out ;)

oh, this is going to be fun!

K.

[Vanya]

Quote Originally posted by Kraellin:
...and those same folks dont even want to play me when the online camp game comes out http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/wink.gif[/QUOTE]

Now that almost sounds obscene! http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/wink.gif Tents ahoy! http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/biggrin.gif

[ShadeWraith]

Yes, can you imagine a whole army of samurai mincing in to the attack.........lol


L8r, Wraith

[Koga No Goshi]

Ashigaru crossbowmen will correlate to the 13th-cent equivalent of how muskets and arquebus are used currently. Since there were no directed gunpowder guns in this time period the crossbows will be used the way we use the musketeers now. Cheap expendable and flee-easy longrange pickers.



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Goshi of Koga

[evilc]

mongol hev cav must be vulnerable to spears, otherwise they wouldnt be in the game, so i see army contingent of yari samurai rising quite a lot in the future

[EasyCo]

The worthless...easy..Ashi Crossbow.The Ashi should be the Ashi Archers..Yes,thats right..Historcally should be the Ashi Archers.

EasyCo

[KumaRatta Yamamoto]

Originally posted by EasyCo:
The worthless...easy..Ashi Crossbow.The Ashi should be the Ashi Archers..Yes,thats right..Historcally should be the Ashi Archers.


Maybe EasyCo but i predict that we will use them like we use guns right now.

I'm curious to see the thunderbombers at work, they will be the first units used in STW that will have an area effect, like cannon fire....it does make you think that they are testing some possibilities for future totalwar games doesn't it?

[Kraellin]

kuma,

i'd say that was a pretty safe bet ;)

K.

[Yoko Kono]

1) Which of the new units do you think will be most popular in online play?

Mongal Heavy Cav for sure. Tho of all the old units i suspect yari sams will see a surging rise in popularity especially as there will be no monks

2) Which of the new units to you think will receive the most complaints about being too powerful and unbalancing the game?

I hope none. Monks unbalanced STW. I really cant see any units being unbalanced unless of course the mongal cav can defeat yari sam
3) Which unit, new or old, will win the title of "most worthless unit"?

IHNI
cossbowmen will be, i suspect, the direct replacments of guns with similar effectiveness minus the morale penalty
Skirmishers will possibly be great units, with their shields having the ability to cover and absorb arrow fire, keeping the cav safe
Thunder bombers will be super units that will be loved and hated due to the fact they may explode in ur mens arms, altho this will counter their effectiveness
I can only wonder about the wide range of cav units available in the game
with yari, cav arch, naginta and heavy cav on one side and more for the mongols surely some cav will be simply forgotten

[Brown Wolf]

The mongols will be interesting. I wonder if kubla khan will actually be in the game?


Well it seems soly is still here. I thought you had to leave? http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/biggrin.gif

http://www.geocities.com/iron_wolf81/lol.JPG


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"Now is not the time to be lazy"

[This message has been edited by Brown Wolf (edited 06-17-2001).]

[Vanya]

Hmmm...

Since sanda bomas are peasants... will there be those bright bulbs in their midst that light the fuse and throw the towel?

http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/biggrin.gif

[Kraellin]

vanya,

i seem to recall in another thread (or maybe it was earlier in this one) that the bomas would have a chance of blowing themselves up. the technology wasnt very exact, folks fumbling and dropping things, backfires and so on.

i'm just wondering if the things will roll downhill or if they can be lit and then set on the ground and walked away from ;)

K.

[Sengoku]

I'm just wondering what happened to the Chinese fire-lances and catapults.

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"Those who cling to life die, and those who defy death live." Uesugi Kenshin

[Vanya]

Quote Originally posted by Kraellin:
vanya,

i seem to recall in another thread (or maybe it was earlier in this one) that the bomas would have a chance of blowing themselves up. the technology wasnt very exact, folks fumbling and dropping things, backfires and so on.

i'm just wondering if the things will roll downhill or if they can be lit and then set on the ground and walked away from http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/wink.gif

K.[/QUOTE]

Well, Kraellin, my friend... *I* think the bomas will be hurled like grenades in a sling (from the pics at least, that is what it looks like they'll do). So it is conceivable they would let go of the towel -- and let the boma drop onto their Sputnik-sized heads while the towel travels through the air towards the enemy...

[Yoshikazu Hojo]

I think that there will be some risk involved with the bomers for sure. Last month I went to the Tokyo Edo Museum where they had an exhibition on the Mongol Invasion.
They had on show a replica of one of these bombs. It looked as if if was made out of a seramic material and was the size of a large sized grape fruit. Its shape was not round but what looked like a fat 3D star fish with about 5 thick studs molded around the sides. So if it was thrown there was no way that it would roll. Mind you with the gunpowder inside it would have been pretty heavy, probably thrown at a guess of nothing more than 10 - 12 meters. Personally I think they will be fun to use but how effective they will be will remain to be seen.

[Vanya]

Hmm... next time I lose my head, I must make sure I dont pick up an unexploded boma by accident to replace my pumpkin. Not that it would do anything other than sear my nice black satin cape...

[PSYCHO]

oh oh ..is it too late !?

hmmm ... http://www.totalwar.org/ubb/smile.gif oh yer ..I predict that our orphaned children's Father's children's children of their father's who were the children orphaned (due to the Father's innability to cope without absolutes) ..will LOVE !!! Shogun Mk II ...then commit septuku whilst awaiting Mk III.

Spring, Summer, Winter, Fall, 20th, 30th, 1st, May, June, July, August ..or maybe August, May, June, July ....Ah ! ..2002 !?

"Trusty blade do your work" !

Sinanarra ..or whatever



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PSYCHO HOJO / PSYCHO SO