Malaysian Airline 777 Shot Down over Ukraine

[Seamus Fermanagh]

This thread may eventually be combined with the Ukraine thread. For the moment however, it is being reported that a 777 airliner was shot down over Eastern Ukriaine, killing all 295 on board.

I would like to offer my condolences and prayers for those who were killed and their families. As the flight was a direct from Sciphool to Kuala Lumpur, there are numerous families in the Netherlands, Malaysia, and as I understand it Australia who are now in the midst of a tragedy.

I would also note that Malaysia Airlines is having a horrifically bad year.

Source (http://www.myarklamiss.com/story/d/story/update-malaysia-airlines-passenger-jet-shot-down-o/42606/CyKE1HB1m06QVVwdCIq1dQ)

[rvg]

Perhaps this tragedy will once and for all put to rest the discussions over who are the villains in this conflict. Then again, maybe not. Selective perception tends to run wild.

Deepest condolences to the Dutchies and all other nations whose citizens had the misfortune of being on that plane.

[Beskar]

At first, I thought this was about the Flight 370, and was thinking of how surreal and crazy it was. Luckily, I noticed it was a Flight 17, thus a different plane.

A real shame that this occurred though.

[Kralizec]

A very sad event, if nothing else.

A friend of mine said some separatist Ukranian had tweeted something along of the lines "we've just downed a Ukranian Tupolev, hurray!" immediately after the crash. I wouldn't know, I don't think that following every internet article/rumor about the conflict will necessarily give a better view of the conflict - and I'd rather contract the plague than get involved with twitter.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Blame the Russians. That is a terrible government

[rickinator9]

I suspect the Seperatists and\or Russia have taken it down. The Seperatists likely do not have air power whatsoever and so would naturally shoot down any plane they see in the sky.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

NBC news reports suggest but cannot confirm that it was shot down by pro-Russian separatists or Russian volunteers fighting with them and that they were unaware of it's civilian status at the time of the attack. Again, that was reported by Brian Williams as a possibility, but not as confirmed information.

[Papewaio]

Considering there is only really two realistic possibilities for the missile attacks it isn't much of a statement.

It's either Ukraine or Russian. Given this is sophisticated equipment its not the type of stuff untrained militia are going to have.

[Papewaio]

Sorry when you get that level of equipment you are a state actor even if you are labeled a separatist for politics sake.

It's Ukraine or Russia/Russia supported trained and financed Separatist. Like saying it USA vs National Guard.

[Papewaio]

The issue is that this is sophisticated equipment so it is a miltary trained unit. Either way its not a normal shoulder launched missile so it limits the number of proable actors to two sets.

Ukraine or Russian/Russian Wannabe.

[Crandar]

The issue is that this is sophisticated equipment so it is a miltary trained unit. Either way its not a normal shoulder launched missile so it limits the number of proable actors to two sets.

Ukraine or Russian/Russian Wannabe.
Both factions had artillery sophisticated enough to shoot down the airplane, so, considering that currently our best sources are tweets originating from people impersonating either Ukrainian soldiers or pro-Russian rebels, we should wait before condemning any side.

Of course, such accidents happen unfortunately rather frequently, like the US vessels shooting down an Iranian airplane, during the Iran-Iraq War, so I wouldn't expect any serious loss of prestige for the actual perpetrator, whoever mhe might be.

However, in my opinion, the Malaysian Airlines are partially respnsible for this. Ignoring the danger a warzone poses for your passengers' safety, in order to avoid any augmentation of your flight's cost is a bit criminal, isn't it?

[Papewaio]

It is/was a designated international flight corridor in which a lot of airlines are traveling through.

To shot down an aircraft without warning is not the airlines fault. The only people who think like that also blame rape on the woman for wearing a short skirt.

As for it being Ukraine or Russia it is one or the other. Russia is quite happy to supply the separatists and to reap the rewards such as Crimea. So it is Russia's responsibility if the separatists shot down the plane. One cannot claim the benefits without the responsibilities.

Also whoever did it does not the sole villain make. It's quite possible to have two sets of villains in a conflict and not a just war.

[Crandar]

It is/was a designated international flight corridor in which a lot of airlines are traveling through.

To shot down an aircraft without warning is not the airlines fault. The only people who think like that also blame rape on the woman for wearing a short skirt.

As for it being Ukraine or Russia it is one or the other. Russia is quite happy to supply the separatists and to reap the rewards such as Crimea. So it is Russia's responsibility if the separatists shot down the plane. One cannot claim the benefits without the responsibilities.

Also whoever did it does not the sole villain make. It's quite possible to have two sets of villains in a conflict and not a just war.

Of course, the responsiblity mainly lies on the group that shot down the aircraft, but that's not a valid excuse for the Malaysian Airlines to disregard common sense.
Also, how do you know who shot down the airplane? As far as I know, no reliable source has mentioned the perpetrator.

[Fragony]

Pretty sour, more than 170 fellow Dutchies were on that plane, of who 108 were going to a conference about AIDS, among them a few highly respected researchers and activists. It was a mistake probably but we are kinda shocked here.

[Sarmatian]

Terrible tragedy. Whoever it was, I'm pretty sure it was a mistake. Nothing to gain for either side. That conflict really needs to stop, one way or the other. Too many lives lost for petty politics.

[Husar]

Sorry when you get that level of equipment you are a state actor even if you are labeled a separatist for politics sake.

It's Ukraine or Russia/Russia supported trained and financed Separatist. Like saying it USA vs National Guard.

Going by that argumentation, the USA supported ISIS because they use upgraded HMMWVs. The rebels have captured some equipment from the Ukrainian army and there was at least one case of Ukrainian soldiers switching sides including their heavy equipment. There are plenty of retired army people who could operate such systems even in the western world, why can't the separatists possibly have any without Russian help?

[Papewaio]

Going by that argumentation, the USA supported ISIS because they use upgraded HMMWVs. The rebels have captured some equipment from the Ukrainian army and there was at least one case of Ukrainian soldiers switching sides including their heavy equipment. There are plenty of retired army people who could operate such systems even in the western world, why can't the separatists possibly have any without Russian help?

I'm saying it is either Ukraine or Russian. Which one who knows.

Your strawman argument does not hold up. Is the US taking Syria as another state from the ground that IS has claimed? No so please try a more reasonable argument.

Russia has already accepted Crimea as spoils of what the separatists have done. They have supplied, augmented, vindicated, celebrated and taken the booty from the deeds of the separatists.

This is more akin to say the East India Company. It would not surprise me that a lot of regular army and/or special force observers from Russia are with the separatists either. But for the sake of argument how many separatists would it take to operate one of those batteries? And how are the figuring out the target was not a Russian plane unless they were told so? So that close to the Russian border they would have to be very careful not to shoot down one of their allies. So why chance it unless they have reliable intel.

Again it boils down to a state sponsored actor. Unless someone can show one of these batteries can be operated by one person who took a pot shot at the first target be it friend or foe.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Its very sad. The worst thing about war is that men can't go on just killing men forever. If they could, war wouldn't be that bad. The problem with war is that women, children and uninvolved males get caught in the crosshairs. I feel terrible for these poor families - but I blame Russia. I don't blame the separatists even if they were the ones operating the equipment.

Also, to fly over an active warzone with numerous reports of mid/high altitude surfaces to air missiles downing jets in the past week is criminal negligence. Malaysian might as well shut it's doors, everyone knows that they don't care about safety to an even minimal extent by now.

[Beskar]

The plane was apparently carrying top AIDS researchers (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-28352365), reported "dozens" who were on their way to an international conference meeting, including former president of the International Aids Society. A massive blow for R&D.

[Don Corleone]

Very sad tidings. Regardless of who did it or why, the loss of life, and the loss of human capital in the fight against AIDS is grievous. Praying for the souls of the victims and their family.

[Husar]

I'm saying it is either Ukraine or Russian. Which one who knows.

Your strawman argument does not hold up. Is the US taking Syria as another state from the ground that IS has claimed? No so please try a more reasonable argument.

Russia has already accepted Crimea as spoils of what the separatists have done. They have supplied, augmented, vindicated, celebrated and taken the booty from the deeds of the separatists.

This is more akin to say the East India Company. It would not surprise me that a lot of regular army and/or special force observers from Russia are with the separatists either. But for the sake of argument how many separatists would it take to operate one of those batteries? And how are the figuring out the target was not a Russian plane unless they were told so? So that close to the Russian border they would have to be very careful not to shoot down one of their allies. So why chance it unless they have reliable intel.

Again it boils down to a state sponsored actor. Unless someone can show one of these batteries can be operated by one person who took a pot shot at the first target be it friend or foe.

And why would Ukraine or Russia shoot down a civilian plane if they know exactly who is flying where? And noone said it takes just one separatist to operate a Buk... Please explain why exactly it boils down to a state sponsored actor as I see absolutely no reason why either of the two states involved would purposefully shoot down a civilian airplane.

The whole Crimea thing has already been debated over dozens of pages in the appropriate thread, majority opinion there was that it was taken by russian soldiers, not separatists who the Russians took advantage of.

[Don Corleone]

Originally, a Ukrainian separatist commander took credit for the downing with a statement saying "We warned you to stay out of our air-space". Once the fact that it was a 3rd party passenger jet was known, the post came down. Also, there are recorded conversations of the Ukrainian separatists telling their Russian military allies (in Russia) that they had downed a 3rd plane.

Putin is on record as stating "if you wouldn't fight against the separatists , this wouldn't have happened". Sounds like a CYA statement to me. Not in that he or his generals had anything to do with it.. but more like "oh crap, what did the side I'm backing do now... what can I point to besides them screwing up?".

Sadly, I suspect this is a gigantic "Oops". (Edit: Dropping the rest of this. I have no business speculating on others' unspoken viewpoints).

[Montmorency]

So, that international AIDS conference is going ahead, but it will be much emptier - I'm sure someone could extract a short-story's worth of poetic imagery out of that.

[Kagemusha]

Apparently the SAM system that destroyed the unfortunate civilian plane was a version of BUK missile system. Both Ukraine and Russia are using versions of it. Also both have large number of reservist who can operate the system as earliest versions of the system entered service 1979, so i dont think operating the system is in any way indication of the responsibility.

I agree with GC that this was most likely work of the separatist, who probably acted based on limited information concerning the planes flying at the area. Shooting down a civilian airliner would hardly benefit either Russia or Ukraine in any way.

In any case i am sad because of this tragic event and my condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims.

[Fragony]

Meh almost 200 fellow Dutchies by now, I know that isn't important in the end but it's just closer to me, not disregarding other vivtims. I don't care who did it, it's a mistake and those happen, nobody benefits from purposily shooting down civilians. (but why did they fly over a warzone, more important, pretty damn daft).

[Fragony]

This is odd, only seperatists are supposed to be there.

https://mobile.twitter.com/obk/status/490389952971030528/photo/1

You probably have seen the pic of seperatists holding a teddybear as if it is a trophy, big outrage here, but might possibly be seen in a different light. I don't think this was a terrorist attack but just a tragic mistake, but the internet is exploding.

[Beskar]

You probably have seen the pic of seperatists holding a teddybear as if it is a trophy, big outrage here, but might possibly be seen in a different light. I don't think this was a terrorist attack but just a tragic mistake, but the internet is exploding.

Yeah, I do think this is the case, but it is a very stupid mistake. I think the rebels genuinely believed it was Ukrainian troop transport and shot at it, then boasted about it on the internet/etc for that reason. Once it was discovered it was a civillian flight, they backtracked hard and pretended like they had nothing to do with it.

I think the rebels should have came clean. It doesn't stop the tragedy, but it shows they are actually honest and do all they can to try to resolve the mess with the international community. I think people can forgive mistakes better than lies, and instead of the rebels getting the brunt, it could be redirected to the air-line company and other areas that failed.

Internet is exploding because they are lying murderers and who won't own up.

[Husar]

If they own up to it it was still a horrible screw up and a decision they made without actually knowing what they shot at (quite obviously). All the people involved in this probably wish they could just disappear into the ground and if they have any conscience left it's probably waterboarding their brains right now. I've felt heavy regret for much, much, much smaller mistakes.

I know that war is confusing and all that but if you play around with toys that contain 70kg of explosives you should be sure what you are aiming them at before you push that button.

[Kagemusha]

If they own up to it it was still a horrible screw up and a decision they made without actually knowing what they shot at (quite obviously). All the people involved in this probably wish they could just disappear into the ground and if they have any conscience left it's probably waterboarding their brains right now. I've felt heavy regret for much, much, much smaller mistakes.

I know that war is confusing and all that but if you play around with toys that contain 70kg of explosives you should be sure what you are aiming them at before you push that button.

It could be that this horrible mistake is sign of desperation from the separatists. They got hold of an heavy SAM system and were anxious to use it.Too anxious.

If one compares the operations at Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. It seems that while at Crimea everything was Russian military coordinated and the operation for taking control Crimea was conducted like a clockwork. If one looks at the Eastern Crimea. It seems that Russia has little interest to achieve anything there. Their main concern in Eastern Ukraine seems to be keeping the conflict alive and destabilizing the current Ukrainian government. In order to do that Russia is mainly only supplying the rebels and using small unit special forces, but even the use of special forces seem to have halted after initial operations to support the start of the separatist movements.

Like some feared. This crisis have turned more or less as proxy war and bad thing with those is that many times they can get totally out of control as no one is in charge and anything can happen, like this tragedy we witnessed.

[ICantSpellDawg]

I think the rebels should have came clean. It doesn't stop the tragedy, but it shows they are actually honest and do all they can to try to resolve the mess with the international community..

Any Russian's that I have ever met or interacted with are infuriating, brutal, thieving liars.
Probably because I've worked in the Insurance industry

So good luck with that outcome, I'm sure that some of them are good people.

[Viking]

This is odd, only seperatists are supposed to be there.

https://mobile.twitter.com/obk/status/490389952971030528/photo/1

You probably have seen the pic of seperatists holding a teddybear as if it is a trophy, big outrage here, but might possibly be seen in a different light. I don't think this was a terrorist attack but just a tragic mistake, but the internet is exploding.

You can see him hold up the toy here at around 0:58:


http://youtu.be/xLdRBaL4-wU?t=55s


So the AIDS researchers figure was wrong; turns out there were only 6 people on the plane heading to the conference (at least that's the current (http://www.bbc.com/news/health-28352365) figure). I never saw the 100+ number confirmed anywhere, so I am not really surprised. But at least one prominent researcher was killed, though.

[Fragony]

If they own up to it it was still a horrible screw up and a decision they made without actually knowing what they shot at (quite obviously). All the people involved in this probably wish they could just disappear into the ground and if they have any conscience left it's probably waterboarding their brains right now. I've felt heavy regret for much, much, much smaller mistakes.

I know that war is confusing and all that but if you play around with toys that contain 70kg of explosives you should be sure what you are aiming them at before you push that button.

The biggest mistake was flying there, other airlines took a different route. I wouldn't want to be the guy that pushed the button. It's kinda scary, an other (dutch) site I post usually smart people don't even consider that nobody gains anything by shooting down a civilian plane. It's hard to swallow that so many fellow Dutchies died, especially now that the victims are getting a face, but ffs keep your cools

[Husar]

The biggest mistake was flying there, other airlines took a different route. I wouldn't want to be the guy that pushed the button. It's kinda scary, an other (dutch) site I post usually smart people don't even consider that nobody gains anything by shooting down a civilian plane. It's hard to swallow that so many fellow Dutchies died, especially now that the victims are getting a face, but ffs keep your cools

Err, no, only after the plane was shot down did Lufthansa and some other airlines announce that they would not fly there anymore and would consider alternative routes from now on. Which also means they did still fly over there before.

I'm not sure what you mean by cools, I just said if I had pulled the trigger and killed 300 innocent people due to my own mistake, I would possibly never be cool again in my life. But I wasn't that guy, so I'm cool. :dizzy2:

[Fragony]

Err, no, only after the plane was shot down did Lufthansa and some other airlines announce that they would not fly there anymore and would consider alternative routes from now on. Which also means they did still fly over there before.

I'm not sure what you mean by cools, I just said if I had pulled the trigger and killed 300 innocent people due to my own mistake, I would possibly never be cool again in my life. But I wasn't that guy, so I'm cool. :dizzy2:

Talking about my fellow countrymen who should keep their cools. There is a lot of anger flaoting around but nobody knows what happened yet. It's understandable of course, but also kinda scary.

[Fisherking]

Interesting.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10977082/Russian-government-edits-Wikipedia-on-flight-MH17.html

Though what was edited is not totally proven.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

It is hard to conceive of a non-terrorist purposefully targeting a civilian airliner of a non-involved nation. It was, most probably, a mistaken identification kill.

These have happened in the past, even with highly trained personnel. IR655 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655) KAL007 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007)

Warfare...and whatever other labels are attached to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine it must be considered that...makes for stressful decision making and sometimes for dreadful mistakes. We will learn, eventually, how much information they had when they pulled the trigger and with the luxury of time and distance that decision will be evaluated.

For me, it is only an explanation -- explanations do not make the horrific less horrible, cannot make senseless death sensible. I feel sorrow and pity more than rage.

Those responsible for the shootdown will bear the weight of this incident on their souls. It is not a burden I would seek to bear.

[Fragony]

I certainly wouldn't want to be the guy that is 'responsible'. Forgive and forget if you ask me. The dead are on their way so the family can bury them, that's the last I want to hear about this really. Shit happens.

[Fragony]

Yeah, I do think this is the case, but it is a very stupid mistake. I think the rebels genuinely believed it was Ukrainian troop transport and shot at it, then boasted about it on the internet/etc for that reason. Once it was discovered it was a civillian flight, they backtracked hard and pretended like they had nothing to do with it.

I think the rebels should have came clean. It doesn't stop the tragedy, but it shows they are actually honest and do all they can to try to resolve the mess with the international community. I think people can forgive mistakes better than lies, and instead of the rebels getting the brunt, it could be redirected to the air-line company and other areas that failed.

Internet is exploding because they are lying murderers and who won't own up.

Right on it. It's anominous but a seperatist admitted that it was them, and that it was all a mistake.

Armed forces arived because they expected paratroopers to drop. They were devastated when they arived and realised their mistake. Poetin had nothing to do with any of this.

Sour as it may be, humans make mistakes.

[Beskar]

So the Russians believe that the Dutch sent a zombie plane full of corpses over the rebel-held areas then shot it down.
Source (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/22/world/europe/malaysia-plane-crash-propaganda-war/index.html)



Right on it. It's anominous but a seperatist admitted that it was them, and that it was all a mistake.

Armed forces arived because they expected paratroopers to drop. They were devastated when they arived and realised their mistake. Poetin had nothing to do with any of this.

Sour as it may be, humans make mistakes.

I can completely buy that it was a terrible and unfortunate mistake. It makes no sense for the rebels to shoot down a civilian airline on purpose as it doesn't help them. I just dislike the fact they are trying to cover it up with lies.

They should simply accepted it, do an apology, accept international assistance in clearing up the mess. It would be rather humiliating but they get points for being honest and a victory for morality.

[Sarmatian]

So the Russians believe that the Dutch sent a zombie plane full of corpses over the rebel-held areas then shot it down.
Source (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/22/world/europe/malaysia-plane-crash-propaganda-war/index.html)


Actually, the article in Russian on which they base that conclusion mentions some "conspiracy theories" that are/were floating on the internet. It doesn't conclusively say anything. Furthermore, Strelkin didn't say that Dutch sent a zombie plane but that some reports mention that some bodies appeared to have died before that crash, but adds that everything is speculation until proper forensic investigation is concluded.

The pattern of over-inflating original Russian articles is, unfortunately, nothing new. Serious journalism has for a long time taken a back seat to sensationalism and cheer-leading. .

[Papewaio]

The pattern of over-inflating original Russian articles is, unfortunately, nothing new. Serious journalism has for a long time taken a back seat to sensationalism and cheer-leading. .

I think you will find that no matter the country of origin that journalism has slid into entertainment as that is where the money is.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Actually, the article in Russian on which they base that conclusion mentions some "conspiracy theories" that are/were floating on the internet. It doesn't conclusively say anything. Furthermore, Strelkin didn't say that Dutch sent a zombie plane but that some reports mention that some bodies appeared to have died before that crash, but adds that everything is speculation until proper forensic investigation is concluded.

The pattern of over-inflating original Russian articles is, unfortunately, nothing new. Serious journalism has for a long time taken a back seat to sensationalism and cheer-leading. .


Notably, Ukrainian sources posted what they claimed were intercepts from Russian Fighters who expressed scepticism at the idea that a civilian plane would be in the area so "it must by spies".

Given how paranoid you are about Western motives, I can only assume those backing Russia are an order of magnitude worse.

Also, I would note that my reading of post-Communist attitudes leads me to believe that the Seperatists would blame the pilots/airlines/passengers for being in the way rather than themselves for not confirming the target.

[Brenus]

“Ukrainian sources” Very safe sources, as we know. Did they intercepted these comments on Social Media? Did these comments were deleted shortly after? It seems to be a pattern in Ukrainian sources...

In the meantime, this morning : http://news.yahoo.com/us-no-evidence-direct-russian-plane-210210006--politics.html
The BBC told this morning that USA Agency confirmed that the plane may have shot down by mistake by the Rebels and has no evidence bla bla bla. If the Agency starts start to use conditional now….

[Sarmatian]

Notably, Ukrainian sources posted what they claimed were intercepts from Russian Fighters who expressed scepticism at the idea that a civilian plane would be in the area so "it must by spies".

Given how paranoid you are about Western motives, I can only assume those backing Russia are an order of magnitude worse.

Also, I would note that my reading of post-Communist attitudes leads me to believe that the Seperatists would blame the pilots/airlines/passengers for being in the way rather than themselves for not confirming the target.

And some paranoid people in the west thought that Russia purposefully downed a civilian airplane to blame it on the Ukrainians. Paranoia isn't anything new when it comes to tragedies. How many conspiracy theories were there about 9-11?

Anyway, the most likely scenario is that federalists simply made a mistake. The right thing to do would be to admit that mistake, apologize and take care of the families of the victims. It doesn't work that way in practice most of the time. When USS Vincennes shot down a civilian plane, it took several years until US admitted the guilt. By admitt, I mean pay reparations, because they refused to apologize and even gave a medal for exemplary conduct to the captain of Vincennes, so I'm not holding my breath here.

There will be many theories and investigations, and, after some time passes, hopefully someone will admit the mistake and apologize.

And I'm also sorry that you see anyone who is not a NATO cheerleader as a paranoid person, but that's not my problem.

[Husar]

Given how paranoid you are about Western motives, I can only assume those backing Russia are an order of magnitude worse.

Are you paranoid if someone is actually out to get you?

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/05/ukraine-lies-propaganda-west-age-20145384527678726.html

[Fisherking]

Yes

http://media.santabanta.com/images/picsms/2013/sms-2665.jpg

[Husar]

Oh yeah, Western motives:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/23/arms-export-licences-russia-pm-embargo-report

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Anyway, the most likely scenario is that federalists simply made a mistake.

What are Federalists now?

You mean the Separatists who want to be part of Russia?

The actual Ukrainian Federalists have either left the area or are keeping their heads well down.

I think you're paranoid because you think "the West" is out to get Russia, and Serbia, but you don't think Russia is out to annex Ukraine - despite Putin very clearly saying he wants to re-integrate at least Eastern Ukraine into Russia.

Anyway - the Rebels are the most likely culprits, the only ones who actually have to watch the skies exclusively from the ground and therefore the ones most likely to have itchy trigger fingers.

At present it appears they have already doctored the site and may have tampered with the Flight Recorders - which they removed from the wreckage and handed over to investigators only about 24 hours ago.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Are you paranoid if someone is actually out to get you?

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/05/ukraine-lies-propaganda-west-age-20145384527678726.html


Uh huh:


The second criticism of the standing Western narrative is that Putin is playing dirty. Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the EU's top diplomat Catherine Ashton have been at pains to call him out on this. But has the West not been doing the same? It all depends on the timeframe you use to judge the Ukraine crisis.


In 1990, the final leader of the dying Soviet Union was explicitly promised by then US Secretary of State James Baker that NATO would not take advantage of Russia's weakness and expand their influence eastward. In a speech which he gave in the Kremlin, Baker confirmed that there would be "no extension of NATO's jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east".
In an interview with Der Spiegel in 2009, Mikhail Gorbachev was gutted: The promise he had been made that day by Baker had proved a hollow deceit.


"One cannot depend on American politicians," he said.


He was joined by then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who confirmed the West's duplicity.


"None of the things that we were assured, namely that NATO would not expand endlessly eastwards, and our interests would be continuously taken into consideration," had happened.


Gorbachev and Medvedev were right to be angry. Despite Baker's promise, NATO had expanded into Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania. All of these countries were formerly within Russia's sphere of influence. And all of these countries were significantly more than "an inch to the east".


Maybe the guy didn't get the memo about how that list of countries are permitted self determination?

What did that promise even mean?

I would say that "no extension of jurisdiction" means that NATO will not extend itself outside its own territory - and indeed it has not, it has not intervened in Ukraine, but a US Secretary of State in 1990 had no power to bind the entire Alliance against accepting new members. If the Russians believed that when the Baltic or Balkan Republics asked for NATO protection, NATO would refuse and say "no, you belong to Russia" then that is, frankly, a problem with their mindset.

So - the West is not out to "get" Russia but nor will it support Russia in trying to suborn neighbouring countries.

All those countries the author list? They SCARED since Russia annexed Ukraine.

[Husar]

Maybe the guy didn't get the memo about how that list of countries are permitted self determination?

Does that mean ISIS can determine for themselves what they want to do with their country?

[Montmorency]

You do realize you just argued against Eastern-Ukrainian secession, right? Unless you actually believe ISIS should get to do whatever it wants as a radical armed minority...

[Papewaio]

Does that mean ISIS can determine for themselves what they want to do with their country?

Depends if you believe in the requirement to be a legitimate government is to have the consent of the governed.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Does that mean ISIS can determine for themselves what they want to do with their country?

Elected Government of Poland =/= ISIS.

Strawman to the max?

[Brenus]

“At present it appears they have already doctored the site and may have tampered with the Flight Recorders - which they removed from the wreckage and handed over to investigators only about 24 hours ago.” There you go propaganda, fresh news:
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-plane-crash/probe-finds-no-tampering-malaysia-airlines-black-box-n163111

[Fragony]

Sounds like we (Dutch and Ozzies) are foolishy dragged in a conflict that isn't ours. 'Police mission', where did we hear that before. Means special forces are flown in. I am sure Ukraine aproves.

How about no? We got the bodies what else is there to do.

[Husar]

You do realize you just argued against Eastern-Ukrainian secession, right? Unless you actually believe ISIS should get to do whatever it wants as a radical armed minority...

Why? Maybe the republic of Donezk or whatitscalled actually has a majority favoring independece. Or rather it did until the Ukrainian government startet a war over it and they started to think peace under the Ukrainian government is preferable after all. That means the Ukrainian government won through sheer terror.


Depends if you believe in the requirement to be a legitimate government is to have the consent of the governed.

Indeed, and quite obviously the Maidan government didn't have the consent of the people in the east. Not everybody in the east wanted an armed insurrection but that doesn't mean they liked the Maidan government. The last government that was voted for by all Ukrainians was Yanukovich, the next one was never voted for by the public and the current one was not voted for by a lot of people who would oppose it.

Of course that was thew one thing where Putin and the rebels shot themselves in the foot because annexing a strongly pro-russian island and not voting in a strongly pro-russian region could only result in a pro-western president if the results were always close before.


Elected Government of Poland =/= ISIS.

Strawman to the max?

Elected government of Egypt <> Elected government of Poland
Elected government of Ukraine <> Elected government of Donezk

Where does self determination end and where does it start?
How much self determination did the West foster under Pinochet, Mubarak, Gadaffi?

Can a village decide to have self determination if the country's policies will ruin that village in the long run? Why would self determination only work on a national level and is that really self determination or imposed on everyone? What happened to the great nation of Yugoslavia?

[Montmorency]

Where does self determination end and where does it start?
How much self determination did the West foster under Pinochet, Mubarak, Gadaffi?

Can a village decide to have self determination if the country's policies will ruin that village in the long run? Why would self determination only work on a national level and is that really self determination or imposed on everyone? What happened to the great nation of Yugoslavia?

I self-determine that l'etat c'est moi. Now what?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I self-determine that l'etat c'est moi. Now what?

Convince others to agree in sufficient number to avoid the "nasty, brutish, and short" bit.

[Greyblades]

Also make sure your last name isnt Stuart, de Bourbon, Bonaparte or Romanov.

[Brenus]

"l'etat c'est moi" that is the first step, then you build Versailles and the Canal du Midi.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

“At present it appears they have already doctored the site and may have tampered with the Flight Recorders - which they removed from the wreckage and handed over to investigators only about 24 hours ago.” There you go propaganda, fresh news:
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-plane-crash/probe-finds-no-tampering-malaysia-airlines-black-box-n163111

So they didn't doctor the Voice Recorder - ok.

I didn't say they had, merely that they "may have". Now please produce evidence that the site has not been doctored, wreckage moved and tampered with.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Elected government of Egypt <> Elected government of Poland
Elected government of Ukraine <> Elected government of Donezk

Where does self determination end and where does it start?
How much self determination did the West foster under Pinochet, Mubarak, Gadaffi?

Can a village decide to have self determination if the country's policies will ruin that village in the long run? Why would self determination only work on a national level and is that really self determination or imposed on everyone? What happened to the great nation of Yugoslavia?

There is no "Elected government of Donezk".

Aside from that, I was discussing the 1990's and why Russia's view of history, and their claims to have been deceived, are false.

[Husar]

There is no "Elected government of Donezk".

Indeed, but enough people decided to follow some dude to cause really big trouble for the Ukrainian army.

[Brenus]

"Now please produce evidence that the site has not been Now please produce evidence that the site has not been doctored, wreckage moved and tampered with.." :laugh4: Err, I think you are the one to come with proof they did, and well, without the usual proof by Social Media provided by the Ukrainian Intelligence. Because, apparently, on the ground, the OSCE monitors are not complaining about this. You know, the same ones who were taken in hostage few months (weeks?) ago, according to the Ukrainian Intelligence and media. Do you remember?

And after a little bit of thinking, can you explain:"the site has not been doctored, wreckage moved and tampered with"? Removing all bodies and parts of planes pretending the plane in fact was never shot down, or not here? Or adding clue(s) like a missile with clear Ukrainian flag on it to prove it was the Government that did it? Tempered with what exactly? Can you elaborate? What would be the advantage to move wreckage of few meters, or even to take it out of the scene?
Looking forwards of your answer...

[Fragony]

Ah, we send military-police. Unarmed.

Edit: could be worse, special forces will be armed, our Ozzy mates are opening up a can as well. Cheers mates!

[Husar]

Ah, we send military-police. Unarmed.

Edit: could be worse, special forces will be armed, our Ozzy mates are opening up a can as well. Cheers mates!

You should invade Russia together and get Putin, then give him some waterboarding, chinese thousand scratches torture and hang him openly in front of several classes of russian primary school kids to make a point. Finally you can declare that you won and brought freedom and democracy to Russia and return to what the fallout left of your homes.

On a related note, I read that Putin's daughter lives in the Netherlands and everybody is getting angry at her now. There's talk about demonstrations in front of her home and sending her back to Russia. I say get the pitchforks and the torches, then tar and feather her. Again, make sure that little children watch to teach them how their parents deal with problems.

[Sarmatian]

On a related note, I read that Putin's daughter lives in the Netherlands and everybody is getting angry at her now. There's talk about demonstrations in front of her home and sending her back to Russia. I say get the pitchforks and the torches, then tar and feather her. Again, make sure that little children watch to teach them how their parents deal with problems.

No revenge rape?

Pfft, mobs aren't what they used to be.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

No revenge rape?

Pfft, mobs aren't what they used to be.

Well, its the Netherlands for pete's sake, not the Balkans -- they simply don't have ya'll sense of historical "style."

[Seamus Fermanagh]

You should invade Russia together and get Putin, then give him some waterboarding, chinese thousand scratches torture and hang him openly in front of several classes of russian primary school kids to make a point. Finally you can declare that you won and brought freedom and democracy to Russia and return to what the fallout left of your homes.

On a related note, I read that Putin's daughter lives in the Netherlands and everybody is getting angry at her now. There's talk about demonstrations in front of her home and sending her back to Russia. I say get the pitchforks and the torches, then tar and feather her. Again, make sure that little children watch to teach them how their parents deal with problems.

Is there a point here? As near as I can tell your point boils down to 'you cannot do anything so sit back and enjoy the ride.' Hardly inspiring that...

[Fragony]

On a related note, I read that Putin's daughter lives in the Netherlands and everybody is getting angry at her now. There's talk about demonstrations in front of her home and sending her back to Russia. I say get the pitchforks and the torches, then tar and feather her. Again, make sure that little children watch to teach them how their parents deal with problems.

I didn't even know, try any website's comment section and google translate it to see what almost everybody thinks about that one. I have never seen a more pathetic attempt to profile yourself, she is welcome as far as just about everyone is concerned. The sad part is that she and her friend will probably have to leave because some idiot wanted to be in the papers. Of which he used to be the boss off, it's a disgrace that he felt like pulling her into this because of his narcistist attention-complex. She just isn't safe anymore as she is too big a price, and she should leave, so does her friend who also has nothing to do with it, she is a big price for abduction.

This is the idiot who thought it was a good idea to ruin these peoples life, I hope he will be remembered for it.

pieter broertjes http://static3.volkskrant.nl/static/photo/2013/6/12/7/20130202083658/media_xl_1509442.jpg

We are very much disgusted by this and I hope he steps down very soon. He didn't even apoligize, just said it was clumsy. To make sure everybody kmows where Putin's daughter lives, his daughter who never harmed us in any way. She just lives here. No Dutchie will ever want to harm her but it's an open border deal nowadays, others will absolutily want to hurt her to hurt Putin. Ever considered that.

Pieter Broertjes, Fuck You. You make us look so bad.

[Husar]

Is there a point here? As near as I can tell your point boils down to 'you cannot do anything so sit back and enjoy the ride.' Hardly inspiring that...

Well, I don't find the lynch mob mentality very inspiring either. The link between a plane getting shot down and Putin's daughter is also shady, like people are grabbing at the only thing they can get and use it/her as a valve for their anger. Now you can say the world isn't fair and the people on the plane were innocent as well but IMO the world is certainly not going to get any fairer if more people turn to mob mentality. How about we hunt jews in the streets because we don't like the way Israel treats Arabs?

Being Putin's daughter does not automatically make her responsible for what happened and I do not find it inspiring to blame her because she is an easy target. That does not mean that I support everything she and her dad do but punishing entire families for the fault of one family member seems very medieval.

In other words, was the way Norway dealt with the Breivik massacre uninspiring and lazy? Should they have done more? Should he have been publicly hanged without a trial or something like that?

[Fragony]

Well, I don't find the lynch mob mentality very inspiring either. The link between a plane getting shot down and Putin's daughter is also shady

They have absolutily nothing to fear from us. We are no idiots we know perfectly well that she doesn't has anything to do with it and we are kinda furious at the guy who made it public that she lives here. For some organisations she's a big price though, she's not safe anymore for all sorts of organisations. They never needed any security when buying groceries untill now. The idiot that just had to profile himself should take a sword an fall on it if there is any honour in his sorry existance.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Well, I don't find the lynch mob mentality very inspiring either. The link between a plane getting shot down and Putin's daughter is also shady, like people are grabbing at the only thing they can get and use it/her as a valve for their anger. Now you can say the world isn't fair and the people on the plane were innocent as well but IMO the world is certainly not going to get any fairer if more people turn to mob mentality. How about we hunt jews in the streets because we don't like the way Israel treats Arabs?

Being Putin's daughter does not automatically make her responsible for what happened and I do not find it inspiring to blame her because she is an easy target. That does not mean that I support everything she and her dad do but punishing entire families for the fault of one family member seems very medieval.

In other words, was the way Norway dealt with the Breivik massacre uninspiring and lazy? Should they have done more? Should he have been publicly hanged without a trial or something like that?

She is a symbol. As long as only symbolic action is aimed at her -- protests in front of her house, PNG'd and sent home to the Rodina -- then I do not know that there is anything evil afoot. Attempts to harm her would be anathema, but I think Frag's comment above makes it clear that most Nederlunders aren't going to allow that to happen.

As to the larger issue, I think that Putin is reminding all of Europe that finesse and cultured attitudes cannot substitute for willpower. How soon, I do not know, but it will come done to some nation or nations having to say "this far and no further" and then back up their words.

I will pray that I am wrong in this.

[Brenus]

"How soon, I do not know, but it will come done to some nation or nations having to say "this far and no further" and then back up their words." Err, like Putin did?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

"How soon, I do not know, but it will come done to some nation or nations having to say "this far and no further" and then back up their words." Err, like Putin did?

That being a prime component of the lesson referenced in the immediately previous sentence.

[Shaka_Khan]

Did the majority of the Dutch know about his daughter living in the Netherlands before this happened? She tends to stay away from media attention. I've seen only a couple of photos of her - one of her when she was a kid and another of her in her early 20s. (She is much taller than her father). Or was it all over the Dutch news that she married a Dutch man? It would've been a good idea to stay low especially when looking at how many enemies her father has.

[Fragony]

Did the majority of the Dutch know about his daughter living in the Netherlands before this happened? She tends to stay away from media attention. I've seen only a couple of photos of her - one of her when she was a kid and another of her in her early 20s. (She is much taller than her father). Or was it all over the Dutch news that she married a Dutch man? It would've been a good idea to stay low especially when looking at how many enemies her father has.

I had no idea, the guy who revealed it is an asshole. She fled, and I take it her husband as well, he has a company here, way to go. Aparently Putin regularily visited her, without anyone knowing it.

[HopAlongBunny]

There is precedent, and I think we can expect the same reaction: deny, deflect, dodge pretty much forever.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/shoot-down-of-commercial-airliner-precedent-rests-with-us-warship-vincennes/article19703260/

[a completely inoffensive name]

Are we still deluding ourselves with arguments that the other side is just filled with the other sides propaganda?

[Viking]

The frontlines appear to be approaching the crash site. I'd guess most of it is under Ukrainian control within two weeks; perhaps as early as within a day or two. It might be damaged in the process.


Black smoke above the #MH17 crash site. Ukrainian and rebels tanks on the site

https://twitter.com/PierreCrom/status/493320451176022016


Ukrainian Artillery anti aircraft and APC convoy few kilo meters from downed airliner site . At least 20 armed vehicles . #cbcnews #ukraine
https://twitter.com/OrmistonOnline/status/493320990571909120


#ukraine military roll closer to #MH17 crash site. We saw 20 artillery anti aircraft and APC's - #cbcnews

https://twitter.com/OrmistonOnline/status/493325796413833216

[Beskar]

Are we still deluding ourselves with arguments that the other side is just filled with the other sides propaganda?

I have to be honest, I wonder when Ukraine is back under control, what they will do about Crimea.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Yeah everybody seems to have completely forgotten about the fact that Crimea was annexed just like that, total war style! Maybe in fact the whole Eastern Ukraine conflict was a ploy by Putin to make people forget about Crimea. Because I don't see what he is aiming for with the sort of half-hearted support he has been giving the rebels there.

[Brenus]

I think that was all the point.
Putin was not interested in annexing Ukraine (one of the biggest problem in Europe, which will need billions just to up-grade, and I don't even think of the rebuilding the towns that the Ukrainian Army is actually shelling, buildings and minds...). Ukraine will have her victory, but Putin will keep Crimea.
Perhaps some real terrorism will appeared in the shelled areas, who know?
How long will the Eastern Parts be patrolled by armed vehicle and soldiers in arm? No one can know for sure, but having chosen the military option, Kiev will have to live wit it...

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I think that was all the point.
Putin was not interested in annexing Ukraine (one of the biggest problem in Europe, which will need billions just to up-grade, and I don't even think of the rebuilding the towns that the Ukrainian Army is actually shelling, buildings and minds...). Ukraine will have her victory, but Putin will keep Crimea.
Perhaps some real terrorism will appeared in the shelled areas, who know?
How long will the Eastern Parts be patrolled by armed vehicle and soldiers in arm? No one can know for sure, but having chosen the military option, Kiev will have to live wit it...

They could fight for the land or give it up....to most governments that doesn't really constitute a choice.

[Sarmatian]

They could fight for the land or give it up....to most governments that doesn't really constitute a choice.

I don't think giving it up was on the table. If Russia seriously wanted to have those eastern areas (and beyond), they would have done it after the referenda, and Kiev would have had to live with it.

The question was whether they wanted a centralised or a decentralised country. They opted for the former. Whoever ends up with the territory, it will remain a hot-spot. Moscow understood that, Kiev didn't.

The elephant in the room is the disastrous state of the country, in terms of politics and economy - when this conflict ends, one way or another, everything that's been swept under the rug will come out. I'm putting a tenner that there will be more than 1 prime minister a year for the next decade at least. Another tenner that there will be at least two Maidan like mass protests somewhere in the country within the same time frame.

Ukraine... Should have been one of the richest and most developed eastern European countries by now, ahead of Poland and Russia. What a freakin' shame.

[Husar]

They could fight for the land or give it up....to most governments that doesn't really constitute a choice.

There was a time shortly after the coup where talk may have changed things but it seemed like either the new government sent the wrong signals or didn't talk at all. And when the worries of the population in the east were not addressed for a certain time, some people picked up their guns...

[Papewaio]

Why? Maybe the republic of Donezk or whatitscalled actually has a majority favoring independece. Or rather it did until the Ukrainian government startet a war over it and they started to think peace under the Ukrainian government is preferable after all. That means the Ukrainian government won through sheer terror.



Indeed, and quite obviously the Maidan government didn't have the consent of the people in the east. Not everybody in the east wanted an armed insurrection but that doesn't mean they liked the Maidan government. The last government that was voted for by all Ukrainians was Yanukovich, the next one was never voted for by the public and the current one was not voted for by a lot of people who would oppose it.

Of course that was thew one thing where Putin and the rebels shot themselves in the foot because annexing a strongly pro-russian island and not voting in a strongly pro-russian region could only result in a pro-western president if the results were always close before.



Elected government of Egypt <> Elected government of Poland
Elected government of Ukraine <> Elected government of Donezk

Where does self determination end and where does it start?
How much self determination did the West foster under Pinochet, Mubarak, Gadaffi?

Can a village decide to have self determination if the country's policies will ruin that village in the long run? Why would self determination only work on a national level and is that really self determination or imposed on everyone? What happened to the great nation of Yugoslavia?

My reference to the will of the people is more along the lines of post soviet bloc countries not liking their former masters to the point of joining NATO. It is hardly a conspiracy against Russia if its former ruled people in relatively stable democracies would choose to go to the EU or NATO.

It does show that very few of those people saw USSR as a legitmate government of the people & it reinforces that the only way they maintain it is by force including attacking journalists, dissenters, dissidents and anyone who speaks out against the corruption.

If Russia was a benign country and USSR a legitmate government over the Eastern Bloc then why have so many of its former vassal states joined NATO? If they were so nice and ruled by the will of the people they would still be on good terms. The results speak for themselves.

Russia cannot complain that an independent state joins NATO. They are no longer client governments of the USSR so they can do as they wish and there was no Treaty at the fall of the USSR preventing it. It's all the crying of a bully now that the other kids have other options.

[Husar]

A lot of people from the former DDR would actually want those good old times back.

And with countries such as Poland and Czechoslovakia it is more complicated, the two even hate eachother. Poland also conquered Russia once and is very proud of having done so to this day.

Now Ukraine was apparently not a "relatively stable democracy" and a 180° turn in foreign policy was apparently not a great idea for that country. The interim government may have prevented the separatist movement by making sure that people in the east would know that noone was going to break ties with Russia.

[Rhyfelwyr]

If Russia was a benign country and USSR a legitmate government over the Eastern Bloc then why have so many of its former vassal states joined NATO? If they were so nice and ruled by the will of the people they would still be on good terms. The results speak for themselves.

Not necessarily... Scotland, Bavaria, Catalonia, Quebec etc have all had a pretty good time of it under legitimate governments, but they have strong elements within them that want them to go their own way. Their relationships with their 'masters' might not be as bad as those of the Eastern Bloc vassals with the USSR, but the principle stands.