Taliban Advisor: "Your enemy is running like a whipped dog."

[Papewaio]

This happened during the Backroom Xmas Truce.

NATO leaving Afghanistan whilst trying to maintain face that it was successful. Nothing says complete military failure like holding a mission ending ceremony in secret because you are afraid of being attacked by the enemy you have supposedly beaten.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-29/nato-formally-ends-afghan-mission-after-13-years/5990788

[Husar]

Thanks, Obama!

How many translators and cooks have they flown out yet?
Our government still thinks it's their own fault that they helped us or something along those lines.

[Fragony]

They got a point.

[Hooahguy]

Anyone want to place bets on how long it will take for the Afghan government to crumble? Maybe a little longer than Iraq because NATO still has troops in Afghanistan, even though the combat role is finished.

[Kralizec]

When the USA withdrew, Iraq was left with a government that was already alienating itself from the Sunni Arabs and the Kurds. ISIS' succes was in large part due to Maliki's government consistently favouring the Shia over everybody else. Demanding his resignation before offering military help was wise, but by then the damage was already done.

I haven't followed the news around Afghanistan well enough to make a prediction. If I had to guess, I'd say that things will get worse before they get better. Well, at least Karzai is gone.

[Kadagar_AV]

The whole Afghanistan war was a mess, from the beginning till the end.

I give it a year, tops, till it explodes...

If by Jan 01 2016 Afghanistan isn't in a full on civil war, I'll eat my hat.

[Hooahguy]

The whole Afghanistan war was a mess, from the beginning till the end.

I give it a year, tops, till it explodes...

If by Jan 01 2016 Afghanistan isn't in a full on civil war, I'll eat my hat.
Can I hold you to this? Ive always wanted to see someone eat a hat.

[Kadagar_AV]

Can I hold you to this? Ive always wanted to see someone eat a hat.

Only if you eat one, if I'm right ;)

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I shall witness this bet - we shall want video proof.

More seriously, I think Afghanistan has more chance of succeeding than Iraq as a country. Outside the major cities it's basically a different country - we're talking pre-Classical Greek situation here, relatively calm stable and peaceful urban centres in a see of traditional and much more chaotic tribal culture.

Afghanistan never industrialised but the cities Westernised which increased the cultural urban-rural divide.

What I'm saying is that things in Afghanistan aren't good but there's now specific reason they will get worse and unlike Iraq it has been a "nation" in for centuries.

It might hold together, more or less.

[Kralizec]

I read an extremely depressing article about Afghanistan the other day. It was about the mental health of the general populace, and the shortage of qualified therapists. The general gist was: the vast majority of Afghans have experienced or witnessed violence during their life, in degrees from domestic violence to murder or outright massacres. The percentage of PTSD sufferers is generally estimated to be in double digits. Because of this (according to the article) the current generation of terrorists/insurgents/rebels is far, far more cruel and remorseless than their fathers' generation which fought against the Soviets or in the previous civil war.

...which doesn't lend itself well for optimistic predictions, obviously. I'll see if I can find an English article.

[Kadagar_AV]

I read an extremely depressing article about Afghanistan the other day. It was about the mental health of the general populace, and the shortage of people qualified therapists. The general gist was: the vast majority of Afghans have experienced or witnessed violence during their life, in degrees from domestic violence to murder or outright massacres. PTSD sufferers are generally estimated to be in double digits. Because of this (according to the article) the current generation of terrorists/insurgents/rebels is far, far more cruel and remorseless than their fathers' generation which fought against the Soviets or in the previous civil war.

...which doesn't lend itself well for optimistic predictions, obviously. I'll see if I can find an English article.

As to the bolded part... You mean they have like 12 people with PTSD?

I think you might have forgotten to say it is in percentage of the population...

[FormerlyACubeNowRetired]

This happened during the Backroom Xmas Truce.

NATO leaving Afghanistan whilst trying to maintain face that it was successful. Nothing says complete military failure like holding a mission ending ceremony in secret because you are afraid of being attacked by the enemy you have supposedly beaten.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-29/nato-formally-ends-afghan-mission-after-13-years/5990788

Fuck the Taliban.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Normally don't like vulgarity, but the pithiness of the preceding simply must be applauded.

[Papewaio]

Fuck the Taliban.

"NATO has formally ended its 13-year combat mission in Afghanistan, but the Kabul ceremony marking the milestone had to be arranged in secret because of the continuing threat of Taliban attacks." - my emphasis.

We tried, and based on the above outcome, we were effective long term as a Chihuahua dry humping its owner's leg.

=][=

For clarity I'm not against us going into Afghanistan. I am against political double speak of having a ceremony in secret because of threats of the enemy one has supposedly already defeated.

'"For more than 13 years, ever since nearly 3,000 innocent lives were taken from us on 9/11, our nation has been at war in Afghanistan," the president said in a statement.

"Now, thanks to the extraordinary sacrifices of our men and women in uniform, our combat mission in Afghanistan is ending, and the longest war in American history is coming to a responsible conclusion."'

1) Reason to fight: Defeat the Taliban because the killed 3000 people. Check
2) Reason to stop fighting: Taliban defeated, Mission achieved. Check
3) Reason to hold it in secret: Taliban not defeated. Check.

Either 2) or 3) is true but not both.

The other part of the doublespeak is "coming to a responsible conclusion" What does that even mean? It's a good time to get out of dodge? or that the mission was accomplished? Not very conclusive, just very wishy washy. Sounds like something I would see in a corporate annual report describing charitable donations. Hardly the direct and stirring stuff of military legend such as "Veni, vidi, vici".

The best lines that could be came up with for the longest war in US history was "coming to a responsible conclusion". Meh

[Seamus Fermanagh]

On target Pappy, as you very often are.

A mostly free, mostly stable Afghanistan will happen when one power (internal or external) imposes its will at the point of a gun and then willingly pays the blood price to put down insurrection after insurrection for 40-50 years until cultural changes favoring a truly stable democratic republic take hold. On the bright side, the casualties should decrease after about 25 years as the newer generations start to supplant the old.

Know any democratically-inclined power willing to pay that price?


Our last best hope was an internal power taking up that role. Unfortunately, the one person who might -- I stress might -- have had the barakah to actually pull it off without the NATO mission was the fellow who was heading up the Northern Alliance in early 2002. Unfortunately, the AQ/Taliban folks used the Stalin rule about problem solving.

No internal power that favors real democracy appears to be present and none of the Western powers are willing to bleed for two+ generations to accomplish it.

[Papewaio]

Installing democracy may of been a way of converting the Taliban to a more peaceful way of dealing with others. However I think the idea of installing democracy in Afghanistan was a sales pitch to garner support for the invasion.

Now given the events of 9/11 I don't think we needed to add this as a necessary outcome. It would have been a nice bonus and one way of long term defeating the violence. However the main objective should have been to remove AQ. Make it unpalatable for Taliban to go down the terrorist support side and focus on wiping out AQ (which in itself is a mighty difficult proposition).

I would like to see an audit of the Afghanistan War to see what was actually effective.

I see it as a quagmire that along with the war in Iraq has left more battle hardened enemy fighters and support for AQ and its variations. ISIS is now a much bigger danger then AQ ever was. Will we see the same occur in the power vacuum left in Afghanistan? The Taliban have been hitting harder then ever in Pakistan, so much so that the attack on the Pakistan military school was disowned by the Afghanistan Taliban.

It was the longest war in US history. Why was there so much outsourcing to contractors? Contracting is normally done to shore up a short term engagement not a 13 year epic.

Have all the bases, heavy equipment (earth movers), electronics, bunkers, rifles, ammunition etc been removed or destroyed? Or is there essentially a massive amount of resources now for whoever to utilise?

I'd put this in the same column as Korea. Not a win, not a loss and still ongoing for all intents and purposes. But there must be some lessons learnt from all this blood.