Socialist Revolution in Canada

[HopAlongBunny]

After 70 some years of right-wing governments (44 with the Progressive Conservatives) the NDP won a landslide victory last night:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-election-2015-ndp-win-a-different-kind-of-miracle-on-the-prairies-1.3062279

Trickle down economics just wasn't enough to save the PC's; after 44 years in power people asked: "where is the money?" "where are the services?"
As stewards of the public purse the PC's managed to leave the oil rich province with a (est) 5 billion dollar deficit, a health care system in crisis and an education system facing increasing enrollments and a declining budget. Will socialism save us all? Stay tuned! Unfortunately, the NDP record of leading a provincial economy from crisis to turn around is not stellar, still there is reason to be optimistic.

I suppose I should clarify: the NDP (New Democratic Party) is Canada's "socialist alternative". It's history dates back to the Great Depression and while it has not wielded power nationally, it is largely responsible for our system of social supports. Having lived in Alberta all my life, these are interesting times indeed :)

[Gilrandir]

I suppose I should clarify: the NDP (New Democratic Party) is Canada's "socialist alternative". It's history dates back to the Great Depression and while it has not wielded power nationally, it is largely responsible for our system of social supports. Having lived in Alberta all my life, these are interesting times indeed :)
Move to Quebec. They make their times even more interesrting now and then by holding referenda.

[HopAlongBunny]

Actually I respect Quebec's approach to the political class.
They have shown the ability to switch parties at the drop of a hat; good for accountability and tracking where the money goes.
The political landscape in Quebec is quite complicated; a characteristic Alberta may come to share as the population splits over the new political realities.

[Fisherking]

I am wondering how the socialist party is expected to reign in spending where the other party didn’t. Or, was the fight over not enough social welfare in the money spent?

[HopAlongBunny]

Oddly enough, people expect the socialist to be better managers of spending. The PC attempt to blame the electorate for their failure to manage spending was likely the last straw.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/mirrors-and-miscalculations-five-alberta-election-moments-to-remember/article24254881/

http://thinkpol.ca/2015/05/03/pc-royalty-miscalculation-robs-alberta-of-13-5-billion/

This does not touch on mismanagement of health care and education; policy planks the NDP pushed to great effect.

[lars573]

I am wondering how the socialist party is expected to reign in spending where the other party didn’t. Or, was the fight over not enough social welfare in the money spent?
View from the outside to follow: Alberta's problem is more collection of revenue and not just fiscal mismanagement (although they did have that re: Alison Redford and "forgot to carry the 1" on royalty calculations). Their financial solvency was based on spending all the oil monies as it rolled in. And every time oil prices took a dip for long enough pants got bricked in the Premier's office. Alberta has the lowest personal income and corporate taxes in Canada, and has no provincial VAT. Taking away huge chunks of oil money laid bare problems that had been building for decades. And the NDP will have to have powerful sorcerers indeed to get the finances in order and not raise taxes. But since they don't tax hikes are about the only way.


And I was reading that the TSE dropped 1 point the day after the NDP's win results were in. And oil companies threatening to take their ball and go home in the NDP won.

[Papewaio]

Western Australia is in a similar situation with the iron ore prices plummeting. Seems they were spending all the income and not saving or investing in different revenue streams.

At least in says it is one income tax and GST (VAT) system across Australia.

[HopAlongBunny]

Their financial solvency was based on spending all the oil monies as it rolled in.

That about sums it up. As you noted, much of that was spent, was spent by simply not collecting it; very good for some, not so good for others.
Yes the oil companies will whine and moan (they always do) but as long as there is money to be made I think they will stick around.
Slower growth might be a good thing; the labor market has been strained for a long time, a huge increase in immigration does not seem to be on anyones radar

[lars573]

And that misery will get spread around. What with a fair chunk of oil workers being temporary. Only working and acutally living, well, here. So it'll NS/NFLD/NB social safety net that get strained too by lower oil prices.


Western Australia is in a similar situation with the iron ore prices plummeting. Seems they were spending all the income and not saving or investing in different revenue streams.
Really shows putting all your economic bets on something a potentially volatile as commodities is stupid and short sighted.


At least in says it is one income tax and GST (VAT) system across Australia.
Oh we got one of those too. But it's relatively small (5%), and the provincial ones are double (or more) that on average. And Federal taxes are actually more significant that provincial ones.

[HopAlongBunny]

The NDP will get to wear the downturn.
Albertans will want improved services w/o an increase in taxes; the infrastructure that couldn't keep up during the boom, will not get built because we are in a downturn; We will learn (at the very least) whether Albertans understand that services cost money that they will have to pay for.

[HopAlongBunny]

A reasonably clear-headed look at the challenge the NDP faces.
The cupboards are bare, and a downturn certain; they will be the face of our disaster...even though the train wreck started years ago :)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/ndp-will-take-the-blame-but-albertas-fiscal-future-was-already-written/article24495372/