Population of regions in 300 BCE

[CanOmer]

I research population of 300 BCE. I have a book; McEvedy, C., Jones, R. - Atlas of World Population History - 1978
According to it, population of 300 BCE in regions below:

http://fs2.directupload.net/images/150904/nqjmvqme.png

I want to know your evaluation on the accuracy of this book.

[Lysandros]

At the moment I can't comment on the book specifically, but here's some general information and hints:

I guess you are aware that ancient population figures are a field of debate and uncertainty. One word you will soon learn then is "guesstimate", I think it is evident what it means and underlines the matter's vague nature. There are hardly any Hellenistic population figures reliably preserved (or from other ancient periods). For Hellenistic times, exceptions are the census of Athens under the tyrant Demetrios of Phaleron (census was held about 308 BC?) and the Roman census figures (mainly preserved by Livy, but also others). In case of the Roman census figures, one has to deal with the fact they are open to interpretation, namely whom exactly do they represent (and whom not): Roman male citizens, alle free males, both male and female citizens sui iuris, for example. In case of Rome, the debate has come up with a low count, a high count and a middle count model (resulting in population figures of 5,2 - 14 million inhabitants of Italy, Lo Cascio even suggested up to 16 or 18 in Augustan times if I remember correctly). In addition, the number of slaves is very hard to estimate.

Other methods of determining population levels are archaeological surveys (extrapolating population numbers from quality and quantity of sites) and comparisons with pre-industrial census figures of the according regions (e. g. medieval France or 17th century Norway, though I'm not sure if these are actually valid examples). Of course, there are specific problems as well when using these methods.

When examining ancient population figures, one still cannot ignore Julius Beloch's "Die Bevölkerung der griechisch-römischen Welt", even though it was published already in 1886, as it extensively collects preserved numbers and hints on population. Beloch surely was adept at estimating population levels of the whole Mediterranean world and bordering regions, but of course science has made progress since then. Authors having recently written about middle to late Republican Rome's population levels are (among others) Elio Lo Cascio, Saskia Hin, Walter Scheidel, Alessandro Launaro, Luuk de Ligt. For the Seleucids, G. G. Aperghis: The Seleukid Royal Economy (2004) contains estimates of population figures for each region of the Seleucid empire and the supposed development of each (e. g. Syria is supposed to have experienced a major growth). Interestingly, Aperghis not only used surveys and ancient sources about fertility levels, but also Persian tribute figures of the satrapies preserved by Herodotos, thus having introduced another method of determining population size.

Sorry, I'm in a hurry, but I hope this might be of help to you.

Edit: I'm mentioning the following publications because with those authors' figures you will have covered a large part of the area in question during Hellenistic times by recent scientific literature (from archaeologists' and ancient historians' view, that is), thus allowing you to see for yourself how believeable these numbers are (for Italy, McEvedy and Jones obviously took the low count approach which is questioned now with good reason).

Now here are some works which usually also consider archaeological methods. Apart from Alcock, I am sure they also give concrete numbers. If able, you should have a look at Alcock nevertheless as she evaluates general population developments by consulting a lot of surveys and other sources, and her article is short and understandable (at least I think so) and even though surveys have intensified since 1994:

1. ALCOCK, Susan, Breaking up the Hellenistic World. Survey and society, in: MORRIS, Ian (Ed.), Classical
Greece. Ancient histories and modern archaeologies, Cambridge 1994, 171-190.
2. APERGHIS, Gerassimos G., The Seleucid Royal Economy. The Finances and Financial Administration of the
Seleukid Empire, Cambridge 2004. (Good to read and accessible even for non-scholars): https://books.google.it/books?id=39aLI4nkDqUC&pg=PA350&lpg=PA347&focus=viewport&dq=aperghis+seleucid&hl=de#v=onepage&q=aperghis%20seleucid&f=false
3. Julius BELOCH, Die Bevölkerung der griechisch-römischen Welt, Leipzig 1886. https://archive.org/details/diebevlkerungde00belogoog
4. Peter A. BRUNT, Italian Manpower 225 B.C.–A.D. 14, Oxford 1987².
5. Alessandro LAUNARO, Peasants and Slaves. The Rural Population of Roman Italy (200 BC–AD 100), Cambridge Classical Studies, Cambridge 2011. https://books.google.de/books?id=Uukt6U7ROE4C&printsec=frontcover&hl=de#v=onepage&q&f=false
6. Elio LO CASCIO, The size of the Roman population and the meaning of the Roman census figures, Journal of Roman Studies 84 (1994), 23-40.
7. Saskia HIN, Counting Romans, in: Luuk de LIGT/Simon NORTHWOOD (Ed.), People, Land, and Politics. Demographic developments and the transformation of Roman Italy 300 BC-AD 14, Leiden 2008.
8. Longer and more elaborated version (based on her doctoral thesis, I think): Saskia HIN, The Demography of Roman Italy. Population Dynamics in an Ancient Conquest Society 201 BCE–14 CE, Cambridge 2013. https://books.google.it/books?id=jZN7AAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&hl=de
9. CLARYSSE, Willy - THOMPSON, Dorothy J., Counting the people in Hellenistic Egypt, Cambridge 2006.
https://books.google.de/books?id=53PED9gNMTgC&printsec=frontcover&dq=clarysse&hl=de&sa=X&ved=0CCEQ6AEwAGoVChMIzP2Dur_fxwIVhL4UCh3j2woH#v=onepage&q=clarysse&f=false
10. FISCHER-BOVET, Christelle, Counting the Greeks in Egypt. Immigration in the first century of Ptolemaic rule, in: HOLLERAN, Claire - PUDSEY, April (Ed.), Demography and the Graeco-Roman world, Cambridge 2011, 135-154.
11. Luuk DE LIGT, Peasants, Citizens and Soldiers. Studies in the Demographic History of Roman Italy 225 BC - 100 AD, Cambridge 2012. https://books.google.de/books?id=OdMgAwAAQBAJ&pg=PR4&dq=luuk+de+ligt&hl=de&sa=X&ved=0CD4Q6AEwA2oVChMI54Sk4r7fxwIVgZwUCh3qQALR#v=onepage&q=luuk%20de%20ligt&f=false

The following are important, too, but here I'm not sure whether they actually present numbers (I guess they do, but if you need to focus you may perhaps ignore them for the moment):

12. John W. RICH, The Supposed Roman Manpower Shortage of the Later Second Century B.C., Historia 32 (1983), 287-331.
13. Nathan ROSENSTEIN, Rome at War. Farms, Families, and Death in the Middle Republic, Chapel Hill (NC) - London, 2004.
14. Peter TURCHIN/Walter SCHEIDEL, Coin hoards speak of population declines in Ancient Rome, PNAS 106 (2009), 17276-17279. To be found here: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2762679/

NOTE: I guess many will more likely follow a link than go to a library and compare scholars' written opinions, but what Scheidel and Turchin say is far from uncontested and I personally think the mathematic formulas and graphs distract a lot from the rather shaky nature of their methodologic approach, but see for yourself. At least you'll find there a summary of the high/low count debate, though they might ignore Hin's middle count (don't remember right now).

Perhaps also have a look at works of CASANA, Jesse, WILKINSON, Tony J. and BINTLIFF, John, but I don't remember which of their publications had any population figures.

A last hint: instead of consulting all books in depth you may find it helpful to read reviews which often summarise the most important facts (or tell you where Clarysse hid the actual population number he calculated). Many you will find here: http://bmcr.brynmawr.edu/

[CanOmer]

I am doing this research for an ancient era mod for Europa Universalis IV. I use population to determine base_tax, base_production and base_manpower values in the game.

It would be very helpful if you correct (or estimate or simply giving thoughts) the numbers on the map if it needs correction.

[joshmahurin]

Just judging by his comments purely on Italy I would say instead of a x1000 multiplier you might use a 2-3000 multiplier to get more accurate. I wouldn't be surprised if that holds true for most of that map as that looks like fairly low numbers to me.

[Ca Putt]

In the process of investigating the Athenian grain import I came across M.H. Hansens "The Shotgun Method" in which he estimates a minimum of 7,5(rather 8-15) million Greeks at the time of Alexander.

HANSEN, M.H.: The Shotgun Method. The Demography of the Ancient Greek City-
State Culture (Columbia 2006)

[Lysandros]

In the process of investigating the Athenian grain import I came across M.H. Hansens "The Shotgun Method" in which he estimates a minimum of 7,5(rather 8-15) million Greeks at the time of Alexander.

HANSEN, M.H.: The Shotgun Method. The Demography of the Ancient Greek City-
State Culture (Columbia 2006)

I had a look into that book, as far as I remember it was interesting, but concentrated on the time of the Peloponnesian War (or at least Classic period), but not Hellenistic Times. But I could be well wrong with that, it's been a year by now. EDit: he actually deals with Hellenistic times.

[CanOmer]

In the process of investigating the Athenian grain import I came across M.H. Hansens "The Shotgun Method" in which he estimates a minimum of 7,5(rather 8-15) million Greeks at the time of Alexander.

HANSEN, M.H.: The Shotgun Method. The Demography of the Ancient Greek City-
State Culture (Columbia 2006)Is it total Greek population in the world?

Edit:
Actually I need to know proportion between regions. For example if a source says Anatolia was 5 million and Italy was 6 million while another source says Anatolia was 10 million and Italy was 12 million, they are both equal to my requirement.

[Ca Putt]

I actually don't know but I assume that was the case, the book is back at a libary I don't have regular access to :/ - I essencially only needed numbers for Athens.

[Lysandros]

Saskia Hin has just published an article with lots of bibliography about Ancient Demography. Have a look:
https://www.academia.edu/17304747/Ancient_Demography