Even China and Russia Knows that the US is a Stabalizing Factor in the Far East...

[Shaka_Khan]

I've been paying close attention to Asia for a long time. There are many border disputes over there. In the Far East, the US helps stabilize the regions such as Korea, the seas around Japan, the South China Sea, and the sea around Taiwan, whether directly through US military deployment or indirectly through just talks. This is leading to what's being seen as the growing rivalry between the two superpowers, the US and China.

On the other hand, there's something else that's not being mentioned by most people. What would happen if the US military left the Far East today? One thing is for certain is that there'd be a huge arms race between these Asian countries. We all know that China has the largest military in the world and China's military spending is growing. What's less known is that the neighboring countries around China also have large militaries when considering current world standards. http://www.globalfirepower.com/ And the military spending of the two countries, South Korea and Japan, are actually quite high in current world standards (contrary to them being percieved as free loaders on US tax payers). In fact, South Korea pays a huge amount each year for the US military over there. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/12/us-korea-us-defense-idUSBREA0B01S20140112 And South Korea's military size is quite high, too. Thus, it's clear that these countries have the incentive for more military spending if it becomes necessary. South Korea's main concern is North Korea, which has an even larger army. Japan has border issues with China and Russia and has been demanding the two South Korean islets. China and Vietnam have gone to war with each other https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War, (which may come to the surprise of many outsiders). Nowadays, China is trying to expand further to the South China Sea by building artificial islands over there. Now what will happen if the US leaves? Japan will certainly feel the need to raise military spending due to the rivalry with China. Would this be a good thing for China? How would Russia react to this?

Thus, I believe that deep down inside, China wants the US military to stay in the Far East because even China feels that the US military is a stabilizing factor. The North Korean government could be thinking the same despite what they've said for propaganda purposes.

[rajpoot]

I have to disagree there. If the USA leaves, I don't think Japan or other SE Asian nations will even be able to make any serious progress in stopping China in its misadventures in South China sea, let alone be able to catch up to China any time soon or pose a serious challenge to it.
And the fact that at the moment China is focusing its military development specifically on technologies that counter the USA and its navy (tactical warheads to take out an entire carrier groups in one shot) hardly makes it appear that deep down China has any hidden desire for the US to remain in the vicinity of its shores.
As to how Russia will react if things ever get serious (which they certainly won't) is something that I doubt anyone can say. Kremlin really seems to be throwing curve-balls these days.

[rory_20_uk]

China likes stability as they like long term strategy. Any change might be for the good, but it might of course be for the bad.

Currently, they are de facto annexing most of the South China Sea by making tiny atolls military base... fishing villages and scientific research centres. Suddenly there is a lot more territorial water and economic area that is China's. Reminds me of playing Civ 3!

I am sure that the 50/100 year plan in China is to become the master of the China seas. And rather the relative strength of America is eroded than they leave and a free for all develops - better a country which is based a long way away and hence has many competing priorities than one just off the coast that will never willingly give up: I'm sure China is thrilled Russia is wading into Syria since that is a loooong way away and politicians have a very short attention span.

~:smoking:

[Greyblades]

I miss the cold war.

[Shaka_Khan]

I think Japan has the capabilities to become a military power that China can't ignore. They have the technology, the manpower, and the economy to become a superpower. I'm not saying that Japan can beat China totally. I'm saying that Japan won't be an easy opponent for China. We don't think of Japan that way now because the majority of the Japanese prefer peace and the army isn't large when compared to China's and North Korea's. If the Americans leave, the Japanese will no doubt increase their military. I know some people from Japan. They say that Japan is being harrassed by neighboring countries like North Korea, China, and Russia because Japan's army is small. They say that Japan needs a larger defensive military. I understand especially when considering with North Korea. This is one of the reasons why China is upset with North Korea. North Korea's actions in the past made the region unstable. Also, Japan has a considerable navy. When considering the history between the two, Japan's war with China has always been a catastrophe for China, (albeit they had a peaceful relationship most of the time). Japanese pirates devestated the Chinese coasts centuries ago. In helping the Koreans defend against Toyotomi Hideyoshi's samurais, the Ming Dynasty's army became too weak to defend against another threat that came later, Nurhaci and his Jurchens in Manchuria. And the old generation remember WWII. This is why the Chinese have that psychological feeling of potential threat whenever the Japanese politicians honor their WWII war criminals and when the Japanese government makes the schools teach WWII in the wrong way.

We can say the same about South Korea's technology. The technology and the size of the military are already considerable. If the Americans leave, South Korea will spend even more on the technology and the size. What makes South Korea different from Japan's situation is that South Korea has a good relationship with China. They mostly share a common ground (and so does Japan although Japan doesn't feel the need to participate as much) on their policies on North Korea.

Both Japan and South Korea have the technology to make nuclear weapons.

Now China wants North Korea to remain because North Korea acts as a buffer zone against the US forces stationed in South Korea and Japan. On the other hand, North Korea's actions are making that region unstable in a way that makes China feel nervous.