Fighting erupts in Nagorno-Karabakh, dozens of casualties reported

[Lizardo]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-nagorno-karabakh-fighting-idUKKCN0WZ07T

I suggest you TW.ogrers have a glance at a timeline of the conflict in question to base yourself in.

Ok this is purely speculation, as you may know Turkey and Azerbaijan both share a common Turkic identity, heritage and language. The increasing Turkish sphere of influence in the caucases is at odds with Russia's as a staunch ally of Armenia, Russia has recently increased the number of Russian troops along the turkish border to 7,000 and has secured a joint Air defence system (http://www.pravdareport.com/news/russia/23-12-2015/132941-antiaircraft_warfare-0/). Russia did also have a Military prescence in Azerbaijan at Gabala Radar Station (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabala_Radar_Station#Strategic_Importance_of_Gabal ahttp://) but the contract lasted until 2012 and Azerbaijan refused further negotiations.

(even more specualtion) This maybe Erdogan's first move to embroil Armenia in a war with Azerbaijan, therefore weakening Armenias military slightly offsetting the power balance in the region and giving Erdogan the premise to increase influence over Azerbaijan aswell as Military support for it. EDIT: this may lead to Russian involvement embroiling them in yet another conflict they may or may not afford, This depends on the further escalation. And I believe this could be premeditated instigation by NATO and Turkey and Azerbaijan knowing that Russia is preoccupied with Syria and Ukraine this would be a great oppurunity to strike as Russia will be hesitant.

I have few theories of what this could mean and how it might play out but worse case scenario is you see an Armenian incursion to form a corridor linking the Nargono-Karabakh exclave with Armenia proper or an Armenian retaliation in to the Azeri exclave known as Nakchevan bordering itself and Iran.

I'm also assuming most know about the ethnic displacements during Communism, the Ottoman empire and the Soviet Dissolution and Independence wars thereafter. The international Community does not recognise the Armenian Nagorno-Karabkh Republic and believes it is Sovereign Azerbaijani territory however the Azerbaijani exclave bordering Iran and Armenia called Nackihevan is recognized as Azerbaijani.

Whatever happens I believe Turkey and Russia will be involved and watching vehemently. And most likely a premise for extended Turkish influence in the Caucases through Georgia and Azerbaijan and perhaps finally have a foreign Military base in Azerbaijan.

Would be great if there was a Rome II style Strategic overview set to Political mode to distinguish hostilities. I do know the border between Azerbaijan and Russia is a no go zone.

Russian Military Bases in the Southern Caucases:
17853
17854
17855
Azerbaijani Military vs Armenian Military
17852

And some extras if you're interested.

https://newcoldwar.org/russia-boosts-military-presence-in-armenia-near-turkish-border/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/turkey-lobbyists-armenia_us_56fd85a6e4b0a06d58054b16

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/europe/2016/02/03/azerbaijan-warns-potential-action-against-armenia/79661416/

http://www.pravdareport.com/news/russia/25-02-2016/133640-armenia-0/

https://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/nagorno-karabakh-dispute-then-and-now

Death toll: 36+

Who knows there maybe Oil in dem hills boy! (The one's Azerbaijan just captured)

[Husar]

It is usually advisable to open a thread with a bit more than just a link, something like your own opinion on the matter, or the aspect you would like to discuss.

Just a general hint, I'm not very knowledgeable on the subject so I'm not sure what to think about it and lean towards dead people due to stupidity on both sides, like many other border conflicts.

[Lizardo]

Ok I have edited in my speculations about the matter. And i will try and continue to find more info and edit it in the OP.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBZVyPxTW-U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRScjpWXq-M

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/erdogan-seeks-revenge-karabakh/ri13738

[Gilrandir]

This maybe Erdogan's first move to embroil Armenia in a war with Azerbaijan, therefore weakening Armenias military slightly offsetting the power balance in the region and giving Erdogan the premise to increase influence over Azerbaijan aswell as Military support for it.


This speculation may be considered plausible if it was Azerbaijan who started the shooting. But the reports on the starter are contradictory with either side blaming the opposite. If it was Armenia we might as well speculate on Putin trying to increase his local influence and offset that of Turkey after he got Syria off his hands (if he even did).




The international Community does not recognise the Armenian Nagorno-Karabkh Republic and believes it is Sovereign Azerbaijani territory however the Azerbaijani exclave bordering Iran and Armenia called Nackihevan is recognized as Azerbaijani.



I may be mistaken, but I think the international community recognizes the borders of the ex-Soviet states if they coincide with their administrative borders within the USSR. Thus Transdnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea and Donbas are not recognized (either as separate states or as having changed hands). Before the collapse of the USSR Nagorny Karabakh was an autonomous region within Azerbaijan as well as Nakhichevan (which had a higher status as an autonomous republic). That is why (I assume) both are internationally considered parts of Azerbaijan now.

[Fragony]

2016 sure is going to be a year we remember

[Lizardo]

This speculation may be considered plausible if it was Azerbaijan who started the shooting. But the reports on the starter are contradictory with either side blaming the opposite. If it was Armenia we might as well speculate on Putin trying to increase his local influence and offset that of Turkey after he got Syria off his hands (if he even did).

Well they might have shot first but did you note the offensive Azerbaijan had undertaken to capture those towns and Hills, not a normal Caucasus border clash to me. Also in the previous months Azerbaijan had been threatening to retake the nagorno karabakh. Attack Helicopters were involved and Armenian shot down one.



I may be mistaken, but I think the international community recognizes the borders of the ex-Soviet states if they coincide with their administrative borders within the USSR. Thus Transdnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea and Donbas are not recognized (either as separate states or as having changed hands). Before the collapse of the USSR Nagorny Karabakh was an autonomous region within Azerbaijan as well as Nakhichevan (which had a higher status as an autonomous republic). That is why (I assume) both are internationally considered parts of Azerbaijan now.

Yes however Nagorno Karabakh is predominately ethnically armenian, and to prevent more ethnic bloodshed Armenia invaded and secured the territory. I believe this may lead to Russian involvement embroiling them in yet another conflict they can or can not afford or stomach, This depends on the further escalation. And I believe this could be a premeditated instigation by NATO, Turkey and Azerbaijan knowing that Russia is preoccupied with Syria and Ukraine this would be a great opportunity to strike as Russia will be hesitant.

[Gilrandir]

Also in the previous months Azerbaijan had been threatening to retake the nagorno karabakh.


Such threats are often heard when two conflicting sides are involved. I set not much store by them - just usual saber rattling. If you were planning an attack, would your ring a bell to announce it?



Yes however Nagorno Karabakh is predominately ethnically armenian, and to prevent more ethnic bloodshed Armenia invaded and secured the territory.

This is how Putin justified invading and annexing the Crimea.



I believe this may lead to Russian involvement embroiling them in yet another conflict they can or can not afford or stomach, This depends on the further escalation. And I believe this could be a premeditated instigation by NATO, Turkey and Azerbaijan knowing that Russia is preoccupied with Syria and Ukraine this would be a great opportunity to strike as Russia will be hesitant.

I don't believe the conflict will grow into anything serious. After all, such exchanges of blows (if not so bloody) are symptomatic of that conflict.