Hurricane Harvey & Irma

[Strike For The South]

And we are being led by Governor hot wheels and The Donald.

[Montmorency]

Oh, right. (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/900802642779267077)

GL GL

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Dang. Models predicting more than a meter of rain over the next 4 days in Corpus. The region floods at 10cm.

[Strike For The South]

Dang. Models predicting more than a meter of rain over the next 4 days in Corpus. The region floods at 10cm.


My parents are harboring Corpus/barrier island residents. Everything boarded up and off the floor. We got a live one boys.

Also, on a serious note, the hill country is prone to disastrous flash floods. I was caught out as a child in 98 because I was playing in a creek bed, after I was told not to lol. Know your water table, don't drive on roads you can't see, your job is not worth your life.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

My parents are harboring Corpus/barrier island residents. Everything boarded up and off the floor. We got a live one boys.

Also, on a serious note, the hill country is prone to disastrous flash floods. I was caught out as a child in 98 because I was playing in a creek bed, after I was told not to lol. Know your water table, don't drive on roads you can't see, your job is not worth your life.

I remember that from when I moved to Austin in 89. The preceding summer a kid was playing in the concrete and tile lined culvert in a neighborhood a little North of Hyde Park. The found him in the lake 3+ miles away. The culvert went from dry to 3 foot wall of water in seconds.

[drone]

My sister is in the Austin highlands, she says she should be good to go. Aunt/Uncle out by Lake Travis, hopefully they don't get washed off the hillside. Strike, how do you think the River Tunnel will hold up?

[Csargo]

Stay safe friends.

[HopAlongBunny]

She's a beauty!

http://www.weather.gov/crp/

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/harvey-atlantic-ocean

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

Stay safe

[Brenus]

US French speakers from Louisiana...

Let the wind blow...

https://youtu.be/XSfFDl5AQkA

[a completely inoffensive name]

This hurricane is taking away from the great news that Joe Arpaio was pardoned.

[Gilrandir]

Dang. Models predicting more than a meter of rain over the next 4 days in Corpus. The region floods at 10cm.

Do you think these metric system models would make any sense to most Americans?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

US French speakers from Louisiana...

Let the wind blow...

https://youtu.be/XSfFDl5AQkA

Brenus, thanks. I have heard more than a few Cajun complain that homeland French won't acknowledge Cajun as being the same language.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Do you think these metric system models would make any sense to most Americans?

I can rely on most readers on this site having a passable education. Besides, you can be more persuasive if you tell her "10-and-a-half" with a hint of pride in your voice if you are the only one who knows it's a centimetric reference.

[Montmorency]

Brenus, thanks. I have heard more than a few Cajun complain that homeland French won't acknowledge Cajun as being the same language.

The song's seemingly about defiance to the authority of law enforcement; meanwhile, Trump pardoned Joe Arpaio last night.


The Sheriff came
To warn us
He said a hurricane
Was coming soon.

I don’t give a damn
What the lawman said
I am going to stay
Stay right here

Let the storm wind blow

Ooh, poetic.

[Brenus]

Brenus, thanks. I have heard more than a few Cajun complain that homeland French won't acknowledge Cajun as being the same language.

Oh.. There was a "Alliance Française" in Louisiana when I travelled long time ago in the USA. To be true, French are more aware of the Quebec than Louisiana, probably because it was sold.
The French Canadians have a bitter history to remember and their culture shows it.
In fact, I remember watching a documentary about the deportation of the French rebels (those who refused the swear the oath to the GB) and it was said that along the coast of the US you have small French speakers minorities when some boats loaded with the deported (we would say ethnically cleansed nowadays) never made it to the New Orleans. To be fair, for some of the witnesses, if I did recognised it was French, I couldn't understand what they were saying without the sub-title...:yes:
But no, French do have sympathy and acknowledge the Cajuns or Accadians/Cadians as "cousins".
When I travelled there, I was in a strange mood. In one hand, they spoke the language of our common past and because "americanised" they were a probable future. as one said, we speak the same language but I am american... Strange feeling...
They are parts of two cultures:
https://youtu.be/WKxm9q3sKfw
https://youtu.be/qpY-SKIjReI

In the south of Louisianna, in the woods of Attakapas
Where the river joins the embankment
Planted in the baie is an old green oak tree
On the shores of lake Bijou

In its foliage, where the branches make their hooks
The swallows retourn each spring.
They take refuge in this green oak tree
On the shores of lake Bijou

chorus:
Turn, turn in my arms
Hold me tight once more
Stay with me under this green oak
On the shores of lake Bijou

It was the year, in '57
the first time that I saw them.
Both of them together, building a nest.
On the shores of lake Bijou.

They came back when winter was over
I called them Peter and Mary.
One tall gentleman, black as the night...
His maiden with him.

Chorus

During Lent, this last month of april
I saw them one last time
One bird alone, posed on his branch
On the shores of lake Bijou

He stayed calm; his heart breaking
Waiting from the morning to the night
Until sunday, he left, too
From the shores of lake Bijou.

Chorus

Compared with a french Canadian song: You will feel the difference (same singer)
Réveil: Wake-up (the English are coming to burn the village and to loot the cattle...)
https://youtu.be/3_AescSs6GA

One of my favourites
https://youtu.be/yYywdxUg-nQ

[Gilrandir]

I can rely on most readers on this site having a passable education. Besides, you can be more persuasive if you tell her "10-and-a-half" with a hint of pride in your voice if you are the only one who knows it's a centimetric reference.

When I was in the USA on a student exchange program, one of the locals took fancy to a girl from our group. He was very tall and she asked him what was his height and he gave her feet and inches but she didn't understand it. Next day (apparently after some strenuous calculations) he announced to her that he had converted his height into metric system. According to him he was 3.5 meters high.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

When I was in the USA on a student exchange program, one of the locals took fancy to a girl from our group. He was very tall and she asked him what was his height and he gave her feet and inches but she didn't understand it. Next day (apparently after some strenuous calculations) he announced to her that he had converted his height into metric system. According to him he was 3.5 meters high.

There are many old jokes here about women being poor at geometry only because their boyfriends have told that that a....certain length...is nine inches.

[HopAlongBunny]

https://youtu.be/wVjdMLAMbM0

[Strike For The South]

My sister is in the Austin highlands, she says she should be good to go. Aunt/Uncle out by Lake Travis, hopefully they don't get washed off the hillside. Strike, how do you think the River Tunnel will hold up?

The Tunnel is great for protecting the downtown area and augmenting the damn. In the event of an actual flood? I am not sure how useful it is for the whole city. The real issue here is the plateau ends in the city between 10 and 35 and beyond that you have the confluence of a bunch watersheds. Between those two things just happens to be the rest of city and trillions of dollars in military hardware.

We were very fortunate to dodge a bullet here. Austin and the 35 corridor was drenched.

Houston basically suffers from the same problem as New Orleans, city on a bayou. Couple that with a total disregard for zoning over the past 3 decades and you end up with this. This problem is compounded by the fact it is literally impossible to evacuate the whole county. There are simply too many people.

I had some time this morning and have just been going through pictures and settling into an nice malaise. This kind of thing is going to keep happening. I am not sure what can be done to counteract that. The city is already built and hemmed in.

[HopAlongBunny]

A good article on hurricane dynamics and how Harvey is affected.
Quick overview: two high pressure systems have it locked in place; enough of the land is soaked that moisture from the ground is sufficient to feed the storm; water seeking to drain to the Gulf is meeting the storm surge (think rush hour pile up)

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/hurricane-harvey-why-is-it-so-extreme/

[HopAlongBunny]

For inspiration its hard to top the "Cajun Navy" :yes:
Boats from Louisiana to Texas? No problem:

https://wonkette.com/622245/texas-boat-heroes-just-being-heroes-in-boats :2thumbsup:

[Csargo]

26" of rain yesterday alone, 40-50" over the last few days. It's still raining but not nearly as bad. Flooding is pretty extensive around my area, so it's pretty bad over here in SE Texas. Some of the refineries have taken on water as well, and are shutting down.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIb6SFcVwAAns0-.jpg:large

This is I-10 between Winnie and Beaumont. A large amount of the highways are flooded. This is the worst I've ever seen it, such a devastating event.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

This is likely to be the most expensive storm repair in US history. In good part because we don't have enough refinery capacity in the first place. Shutting them down (needful if flooding threatens even more damage) is gonna get costly.

[Csargo]

This is likely to be the most expensive storm repair in US history. In good part because we don't have enough refinery capacity in the first place. Shutting them down (needful if flooding threatens even more damage) is gonna get costly.

This is Motiva in Port Arthur:

https://twitter.com/LeahDurain/status/902705836451131394/video/1

[Montmorency]

I imagine most residential or commercial property subject to more than a couple of feet of flooding, as well as most of this submerged public infrastructure and industry, will need to be completely dismantled and rebuilt once the water recedes: towers, highways, bridges, chemical plants... that's more than an insurance problem.

Photos (https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-leaves-houston-under-water/538215/)
https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/photo/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-leaves-houston-und/h16_AP17240471259318/main_1500.jpg?1503935250

[Sarmatian]

Not a praying man, but I can hope that diligence and skill of those involved in helping will minimize the suffering.

It appears nature does like to remind us periodically that we exist at its whim.

[Beskar]

These things are a consequence of changes in the environment making them more intense. But with a President who disavows climate and ecological agendas, the buck will be further delayed.

[HopAlongBunny]

Not just this President.
Houston probably highlights the problems with expanding the urban footprint.
Wetlands...useless and wet; residential development = permit sales =>housing =>taxpayers; all this goodness PLUS removing a breeding ground for vermin.
Not just wetlands, any sort of "waste" property ie: undeveloped
The consequences are not built into the costs, nor the taxation; when disaster strikes...

[Montmorency]

Berlin Sponge Architecture (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWjGGvY65jk) is designed for natural water flow and ecological sustainability.

...but it turns out Berlin is also seeing record rainfall this summer.

Berlin streets underwater after 6 inches of rain in 24 hours (http://floodlist.com/europe/germany-berlin-flood-june-2017), rain for everybody! Husar, do you know if these architectural and urban development innovations are proving to be just the ticket for mitigating the consequences of this kind of weather event?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Relying on the most recent bad storm as a proof of global warming is a bit haphazard. Strong storms have been down of late overall despite the generally warmer average water temperature.

Besides, most of the GOP (aside from the loons) accept that Global Warming is a fact. Thermometers are rather bad liars. They dispute the anthropomorphic-centered thinking they hear referenced as THE source of this climate change. And it is hard to get at. You cannot type in a search for climate change without a bajillion political hits but few good research pieces that are accessible in full (and just hearing their conclusions is not enough to judge research quality of course).

[Csargo]

The storm basically got stuck between two high pressure systems basically dumping trillions of gallons of water over these areas that are seeing major flooding, plus with a city like Houston the entire surrounding area has been developed extensively, like HopAlongBunny said, so all of that water didn't have anywhere to go and it started rising. When it was over Houston and my area it was a Tropical Storm I'm pretty sure, but it was moving so slowly that it just dumped massive amounts of rain. It dumped 26" in 24 hours over my area on Tuesday, and the previous few days there were heavy thunderstorms over that time period.

[Husar]

Relying on the most recent bad storm as a proof of global warming is a bit haphazard. Strong storms have been down of late overall despite the generally warmer average water temperature.

Besides, most of the GOP (aside from the loons) accept that Global Warming is a fact. Thermometers are rather bad liars. They dispute the anthropomorphic-centered thinking they hear referenced as THE source of this climate change. And it is hard to get at. You cannot type in a search for climate change without a bajillion political hits but few good research pieces that are accessible in full (and just hearing their conclusions is not enough to judge research quality of course).

You're right about the one strom thing, but the anthropomorphic denial is just crazy, and of course it comes from the side that constantly talks about "personal responsibility" and "being the master of your destiny" etc. as long as it doesn't come to changing its pet habits or hurting the income of its pet billionaires...
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Pure coincidence that the burning of every fossil fuel we can find happened just when the curve went crazy I guess.

https://skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-global-warming.htm

It's just when you deny half the science that you can deny human impact. At some point of course, human impact becomes meaningless and the planet heats up further and further regardless of what we do. Maybe the plan is to deny our impact until it actually does become meaningless? Also funny that the same people tend to dislike refugees, wait until all the equatorial areas become uninhabitable...

[rory_20_uk]

Does anyone find it odd that Texas, the key player in the "small state" concept are asking for $120 BILLION in Federal aid? Where is the God and self achievement in this?

~:smoking:

[HopAlongBunny]

Where is the God and self achievement in this?
~:smoking:

It's different in this case...

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Does anyone find it odd that Texas, the key player in the "small state" concept are asking for $120 BILLION in Federal aid? Where is the God and self achievement in this?

~:smoking:

Both sides do that sort of crap, it is true.

Take flood insurance. Government underwrites most of it...thus encouraging people to rebuild homes that will be flooded in less than a generation. Market forces would force them to move when they were wiped out and not insured.

[Montmorency]

Take flood insurance. Government underwrites most of it...thus encouraging people to rebuild homes that will be flooded in less than a generation. Market forces would force them to move when they were wiped out and not insured.

I think market fetishization here runs into incoherence.

The market is what has pushed settlement and development of all these vulnerable areas, cyclically. Which areas globally - land categorized as flood risk - probably support the life of the majority of the human population and cannot be abandoned. Heck, look at Florida.

We can't all live in Nebraska, and the government won't fund it either without a Titan or kaiju threat.

[rory_20_uk]

I think market fetishization here runs into incoherence.

The market is what has pushed settlement and development of all these vulnerable areas, cyclically. Which areas globally - land categorized as flood risk - probably support the life of the majority of the human population and cannot be abandoned. Heck, look at Florida.

We can't all live in Nebraska, and the government won't fund it either without a Titan or kaiju threat.

Humans can build dwellings that can survive in outer space, on the moon and yes, even on flood plans. They've been doing so for thousands of years (often the trick is piles that rise above the flood water - of course these days doors and windows can be waterproofed and even one way valves can be fitted in waste pipes). The difference is that developers are greedy, government ineffective and customers ignorant / desperate that houses that are not fit for purpose get built.

~:smoking:

[HopAlongBunny]

I think market fetishization here runs into incoherence.

A look at the "market" usually involves a very selective view.
The developers view: "people will buy these houses near the water; and at a very nice premium for the view and ambience"
Insurers: "Several times burned and honestly you can forget flood insurance if you build there"
Government: "Unforseen disasters shouldn't ruin people": becoming: "We will do what industry won't, to preserve jobs"

The market system subsidizes building in high risk areas; largely at the urging of the markets' biggest players.
What was Doonesburys' line : My country tis of thee; Sweet land of subsidy"

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/01/547992600/early-data-from-harvey-shows-epic-flooding

https://californiawaterblog.com/2017/09/01/preliminary-analysis-of-hurricane-harvey-flooding-in-harris-county-texas/

[Montmorency]

Maybe it's true.

With climate shifts, some urban concentrations have become unsustainable.

The new norm is the old one, destruction and renewal - and we aren't merely refurbishing log cabins anymore.

We don't have the money, or superseding money, we don't have the resources.

It can't be done. Not over and over.

So what can we do? The logical answer seems to be selective de-habitation and consolidation of populations. The only entity that can provision this for the public at all, let alone on a meaningful timescale, is the state. Population transfer is the oldest and most fundamental function of the state, but today these states will need new powers and insulated institutional incentives - and everything in attendance.

How many will die before we accede to empowering governments in selective sacrifice of citizens ? Will it be easier if we know subtextually who it is, who is going to be first overboard in almost any case?

But not all can be saved, and once we agree on that then there is no one else to entrust.

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KhJOZBKhyM

[Husar]

Regulations for more safety currently blocked by the Trump administration. :2thumbsup:

Perhaps this is by design? As robots replace workers and unemployed workers get unhappy, why not let them slowly die off? Solves the unrest problems by distracting everyone, too.
Trump already said he wants to send people back to the coal mines, where they will work too hard to bother with politics in the evening and die early anyway. Maybe that explains all the Trump measures, they're meant to kill off poor/weak people who "aren't needed" anymore... Welcome to Sparta. :sweatdrop:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I think market fetishization here runs into incoherence.

The market is what has pushed settlement and development of all these vulnerable areas, cyclically. Which areas globally - land categorized as flood risk - probably support the life of the majority of the human population and cannot be abandoned. Heck, look at Florida.

We can't all live in Nebraska, and the government won't fund it either without a Titan or kaiju threat.

I don't disagree. What is problematic for our republic is that, over the course of the 20th especially, the federal government has become the "guarantor of all things." Republics don't do that well, which trends towards some form of bureaucratic semi-autarchy.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Regulations for more safety currently blocked by the Trump administration. :2thumbsup:

Perhaps this is by design? As robots replace workers and unemployed workers get unhappy, why not let them slowly die off? Solves the unrest problems by distracting everyone, too.
Trump already said he wants to send people back to the coal mines, where they will work too hard to bother with politics in the evening and die early anyway. Maybe that explains all the Trump measures, they're meant to kill off poor/weak people who "aren't needed" anymore... Welcome to Sparta. :sweatdrop:

Over-simplification much? No 'cradle to grave' protection from life = Sparta? I suppose we'll have to find Helots to murder to prove our worth then....

You went a little to swiftian with this response, Husar.

[Husar]

Over-simplification much? No 'cradle to grave' protection from life = Sparta? I suppose we'll have to find Helots to murder to prove our worth then....

You went a little to swiftian with this response, Husar.

You're interpreting what I said wrong.

I meant they kill off the weak and losers on purpose. But since death squads and gas chambers are politically incorrect, they just risk more accidents and catastrophes and then pretend they couldn't save everyone. If they're really lucky, NK nukes the liberal West Coast. :sweatdrop:

[Beskar]

Relying on the most recent bad storm as a proof of global warming is a bit haphazard.

I have been talking about examples across a decade, and Harvey is an example that just occur again. This is happening internationally as there are very evident changes in the landscape and local ecosystems. Even my grandmother went on a rant the other day about how the weather was never like it was when she was a little girl during the world war years which surprised me.

But 'head in sand' brigade won't be changing their tune regardless.

[Shaka_Khan]

I have been talking about examples across a decade, and Harvey is an example that just occur again. This is happening internationally as there are very evident changes in the landscape and local ecosystems. Even my grandmother went on a rant the other day about how the weather was never like it was when she was a little girl during the world war years which surprised me.

But 'head in sand' brigade won't be changing their tune regardless.
My grandfather said a similar thing. He said that a river near our home used to get frozen during the winter when he was young.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

My grandfather said a similar thing. He said that a river near our home used to get frozen during the winter when he was young.

Any number of examples like this have been noted. St. Lawrence used to freeze etc.

It is a certainty that the Earth has been warming. We have been part of a warming trend for some time following a classic interglaciation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interglacial)pattern. How much of the current spike is human-fostered v 'normal' heating might be arguable. Far more important is the consideration of how we will adapt to this warming trend, which is probably not at its peak (and which we may well be exacerbating as a majority of our scientists assert).

[HopAlongBunny]

Next up: Florida?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hurricane-irma-caribbean-florida-1.4275126

Maybe, maybe not; Puerto Rico is certainly a likely target.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#irma
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/150131.shtml?tswind120#contents

Stay safe

[drone]

The only good news is that Trump will not be stealing our tax money with a trip to Mar-a-lago this weekend. ~:rolleyes:

[spmetla]

The only good news is that Trump will not be stealing our tax money with a trip to Mar-a-lago this weekend. ~:rolleyes:

We'll have to keep our eyes on any relief money and make sure no undue amounts are spent fixing his hard hit business.

[Beskar]

Hurricane Irma is out to destroy almost everything in its warpath. :no:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

We are at the peak of the season. Harvey drowned Eastern Texas. Irma has smacked the Antilles (we will find that most of the dead are Haitian as usual when the storm is past), will hammer the Turks, Caicos, and Bahamas, and then pound South Florida. Jose is tracking after Irma for round 2 for St. Maarten and the VI. Katia is whacking Vera Cruz.

Irma was a Cat 5 for 3 days. Almost unheard of.

[Shaka_Khan]

My cousin lives in Fort Walton Beach, Florida. He bought a lot of snacks and water. He and his gf didn't evacuate yet for some reason. Maybe the traffic jam makes it pointless to evacuate. There seems to be a lot of people ignoring the evacuation announcement. And there are some reporters staying there. There are two major Air Force bases in Fort Walton Beach. They might be evacuating, too.

[Fragony]

Sint Maarten is in a bad spot, it's all debris atm and infrastructure is badly damaged. The much weaker Jose might be a much bigger problem. Where is the Queen Mary when you need it, total evacuation is best

[Beskar]

Now Hurricane Jose looks like it is going to hit category 5 (currently top-end 4) and follow in Irma's path.

Jeez, this is getting super serious this season. Katrina was the wake-up call in 2005, but this is the kick in the teeth. Worse time ever for USA to have such a irresponsible president on environment and climate change.

But I guess doing nothing, sticking head in sand, and constantly changing the goal posts from "don't exist" to "it might not be manmade" prevents any real action being done whilst people die and things deteriorate even further. How many more decades of excuses.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

My cousin lives in Fort Walton Beach, Florida. He bought a lot of snacks and water. He and his gf didn't evacuate yet for some reason. Maybe the traffic jam makes it pointless to evacuate. There seems to be a lot of people ignoring the evacuation announcement. And there are some reporters staying there. There are two major Air Force bases in Fort Walton Beach. They might be evacuating, too.

FWB is well up in the panhandle area and the storm cannot reach that area until Monday. It will probably be a small 1 or a large TS by then. Unless they are on the barrier island itself, they are likely making the right choice.

[Fragony]

Now Hurricane Jose looks like it is going to hit category 5 (currently top-end 4) and follow in Irma's path.

Jeez, this is getting super serious this season. Katrina was the wake-up call in 2005, but this is the kick in the teeth. Worse time ever for USA to have such a irresponsible president on environment and climate change.

But I guess doing nothing, sticking head in sand, and constantly changing the goal posts from "don't exist" to "it might not be manmade" prevents any real action being done whilst people die and things deteriorate even further. How many more decades of excuses.

This is rather exceptional, (global) conditions aren't any different than last year, and the year before that and that and that etc.

Hurricanes just suck you can do nothing about them

[HopAlongBunny]

Three scenarios with somewhat different consequences:

East coast: hurricane travels up east coast, Miami takes a direct hit from wind and storm surge
Up the middle: winds basically devastate all of Florida but storm surge less pronounced on the E/W coast_dissipation as surge hits wetlands as well
West coast: Key West and Tampa take it on the chin; hurricane force winds over entire peninsula

http://www.thedailybeast.com/three-possible-scenarios-for-hurricane-irmas-landfall-in-florida-none-of-them-are-good
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Irma

It now looks like the West coast scenario will be the case

[Hooahguy]

My city is in the path of the hurricane, though it will likely only be a tropical storm when it reaches us. I know its awful to say this, but I really hope my university closes school on Monday since I have an exam that day.

:book:

[Shaka_Khan]

FWB is well up in the panhandle area and the storm cannot reach that area until Monday. It will probably be a small 1 or a large TS by then. Unless they are on the barrier island itself, they are likely making the right choice.
Thanks. Now I see why they didn't looked concerned when they took a selfie.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The coverage is hyped to the extreme. Is it gonna suck for the Keys, yes. Will all of Florida sink? Not hardly. As it moves North up the peninsula it will lose strength. Here in Orlando we are expecting no worse than a large cat one level storm here. Bad, yes. But catastrophic 30 miles inland? Not hardly.

For those of you following from afar, check the sustained winds and the mb of pressure. Note the predictions for those as it advances. This will give you a more realistic feel for the problem then the hyperbolic coverage. A large TS/Cat one hurricane windblast is not much different in strength than the gust front of a good sized thunderstorm. It does last a lot longer, but unless you get caught in one of the infrequent tornadoes that spin off the storm, you are pretty well off.

[HopAlongBunny]

Update on expected storm surge:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/092121.shtml

Update on storm/path
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

[Fragony]

Keep safe, hammertime

[HopAlongBunny]

Oh it's on:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/its-official-irma-is-the-most-intense-hurricane-to-hit-us-since-katrina

It looks and sounds bad. Storm surge where none was predicted and general mayhem everywhere.
Repeating a caution: even after the storm has seemed to have passed, stay out of evacuated areas until officials give "All Clear"

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The storm slipped west before landfall, losing some power to the Cuban Mountains but only a little. The eye passed just east of Key West, so it is likely that the storm's departure will show great damage throughout the Florida keys. Storm surge during the day was modest, a meter or so below feared levels in places like Miami. However, the communities on the SW edge are now getting hit with surge a meter higher than originally predicted as the reversed winds of the SW quadrant keep pushing water inland.

Currently Orlando area is experiencing heavy rain and Cat One winds. Lots of minor damage throughout the area. The worst of the winds will be past us around dawn.

[Hooahguy]

They cancelled my classes for Monday and Tuesday, which seems a little weird because the predicted path of the hurricane no longer takes it directly to where I am.

[CrossLOPER]

They cancelled my classes for Monday and Tuesday, which seems a little weird because the predicted path of the hurricane no longer takes it directly to where I am.

You get to play video games for another day instead of studying. wtf m8

[Hooahguy]

You get to play video games for another day instead of studying. wtf m8
Oh I wish, it really will be mostly paper and cover letter writing. Assuming we dont lose power.

[HopAlongBunny]

~6.5 million without power
water water everywhere
The damage total could well make Texas look like a spring shower (my opinion)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41234292

[Fragony]

Could have been much worse

[CrossLOPER]

Could have been much worse

That's what you say when you get a B+ on a tough exam, not have two states lacking at least 50% power. That, on top of several islands finding themselves in a barely habitable state.

[Hooahguy]

My internet and phone service has been down for the past 30 hours due to the storm taking down power lines so this has been pretty bad. Of course, its all relative.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Without power for a day and a half. Annoying, but no crisis really. Dear friends lost a driveway to a 5 foot washout, but not their home or anything truly important. Could have been much worse. In the Keys, it certainly was.

But I don't think anything will match the cost of having those refineries shut down for that long. Still, with the keys and the problems in Miami this one will mount up.

[Montmorency]

Apparently a late shift in direction, caused by bracing against an atmospheric feature above the Bahamas, weakened Irma enough before states-fall to avert damage in the 12 figures.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/-150-billion-misfire-how-forecasters-got-irma-damage-so-wrong

[Montmorency]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-11-16/the-u-s-flooded-one-of-houston-s-richest-neighborhoods-to-save-everyone-else

Rich Texans want to sue the federal government because their properties were developed on a dam's flood plain, and this flood plain happened to be... flooded during the hurricane.


This situation, though, has two key differences. In New Orleans, economically disadvantaged communities, some of them historically black, bore the brunt of the loss, with hundreds, perhaps thousands, of deaths. The victims in West Houston include white, wealthy, Republican-voting energy executives.


The West Houston cases are unlike the Katrina cases in another way, too: Rather than make a legal argument about official neglect, they speak to what happened when the federal government intentionally flooded one of the richest areas of a city to save everyone else.


“Hell yeah, I’m pissed,” he spits. He says he’s still deciding whether to sue. “This was not an act of God, this was an act of man. They pushed us onto a grenade to save the rest of the city.” He crushes a beer can in one hand and tosses it aside, then picks up a sledgehammer and brings it down, hard, on a ruined cabinet.


Buzbee waves off such caution. “If you have your case on file and have litigated your case, you will always have better standing than someone who is sitting on the sidelines,” he says.
His approach to the West Houston suits is based on a fascinating legal argument, one that taps at a core Texan belief: The government should leave you the hell alone and pay you back if it doesn’t. The takings clause of the U.S. Constitution’s Fifth Amendment forbids the federal government from seizing citizens’ property without paying for it: “[N]or shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation.” Attendant case law holds that when a government “takes” property for the public good without going through eminent domain proceedings, the owner can claim that an “inverse condemnation” has taken place, arguing that property was unfairly taken, damaged, or destroyed, and that payment is due.

Until 2012 the government successfully argued that it wasn’t legally responsible for decisions made in response to temporary flooding. That year the Supreme Court laid out a new multifactor test that could establish government liability in such cases. The majority opinion, written by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, held, for example, that the government should compensate a property owner for a taking if it has interfered with a “reasonable, investment-backed expectation.” That is, if it was reasonable to expect that a home you invested in wouldn’t flood, but it does, and a court finds the government responsible, then compensation could be due.


In some cities, developers are prohibited from building in these areas, but in Houston there are no such restrictions. Many homeowners west of the Barker dam claim they didn’t know they were in a flood pool, that they hadn’t spotted the fine print on the bottom of some of their subdivision maps. (“Who looks at a subdivision map?” one resident asks.)


Blais isn’t sure that even the 500-year flood plain homeowners will be able to make their case in court. “If you are close to the coast in hurricane country, and you build a house downstream from a reservoir and near a bayou, and everything around you is called ‘bayou’-something, what are your reasonable expectations of being flooded?” she asks. “You probably should have thought of that.”


There are also concerns that, if the cases succeed, they could create a daunting precedent for the government. Ginsburg’s 2012 opinion tried to assuage fears that a broader takings standard would lead to a “deluge” of claims, but Echeverria and Meltz write that this could be exactly what happens. The takings clause could, they say, become “a kind of social insurance program for risk associated with climate change.” The notion of “historic flooding” inscribed in the 500-year flood plain standard won’t mean much if climate change scrambles that math. What’s more, they write, “successful takings litigation may actually impede initiative to take steps to avoid the worst effects of climate change.” Why build a dam, after all, if operating it could cost you billions of dollars in lawsuit payouts?

It's unfortunate they lost homes and possessions (though they have security), and I'd rather blame unscrupulous developers over buyers, but I don't see how they can sue for beyond the normal federal disaster relief - and honestly these people have relatively little need for federal relief. I hope this fails in court.


“I’m 100 percent certain Robert died because of the dam releases,” Kyle says. “It was because of their irresponsibility that they didn’t force people to get out before they released the water. I think they should have busted doors down and said, ‘The reservoir’s going, you gotta get out now.’ ”

I am in full agreement that pre-emptive mandatory and compelled evacuation in such circumstances is appropriate. Unfortunately, I'm unsure that many Texans agree.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I once attended a county board meeting in Virginia. One of the items of business was a pair of neighbors complaining about the noise and heavy truck traffic from a local quarry impinging on their enjoyment of their properties, despite the decorative berm put in by the quarry at its own expense to mitigate sightlines and sound pollution.

Both homes had been built, then purchased by these homeowners more than 15 years AFTER the quarry had begun operations. The county board ruled against them.

They attempted to jointly sue the county and the quarry.


So, if the dam was constructed AFTER the development of the property in question and over the written objections of that owner, then MAYBE they are owed some compensation. Absent that, go pound sand.

[Gilrandir]

So, if the dam was constructed AFTER the development of the property in question and over the written objections of that owner, then MAYBE they are owed some compensation. Absent that, go pound sand.

I wouldn't be so sure. Remembering the lawsuit against some restaurant concerning burns caused by hot coffee one might suppose they would claim no one EXPLICITLY told them that they MIGHT get flooded when they had bought the estates. And the court will rule in their favor.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I wouldn't be so sure. Remembering the lawsuit against some restaurant concerning burns caused by hot coffee one might suppose they would claim no one EXPLICITLY told them that they MIGHT get flooded when they had bought the estates. And the court will rule in their favor.

The appeals judge in that now infamous case lowered the award dramatically. If I recall correctly, the judge didn't set aside the award entirely only because it was not allowed at the appellate level.

[Montmorency]

I wouldn't be so sure. Remembering the lawsuit against some restaurant concerning burns caused by hot coffee one might suppose they would claim no one EXPLICITLY told them that they MIGHT get flooded when they had bought the estates. And the court will rule in their favor.

The facts and claims of the coffee lawsuit don't seem to have any relevance to the legal aspects of this case, and the coffee case was perfectly sensible and worthwhile. Usually in our legal system negligence, if evident, produces liability (http://injury.findlaw.com/product-liability/what-is-product-liability.html) The burns in the coffee case (http://corporate.findlaw.com/litigation-disputes/products-liability-law-explaining-the-mcdonald-s-coffee-case.html) were directly associated with very high serving temperatures and flimsy containers:


The jury in this case decided that the coffee was a defective product and that McDonald's had breached implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. The jury also decided that the lady did bear some responsibility for what had happened. The jury said that she was twenty percent at fault and that McDonald's was eighty percent at fault for the injury.

What you have to distinguish between is whether the hazard of hot liquid is obvious, and whether the hot liquid product is served, packaged, or conveyed in a risky manner. The second point is independent of the first.

McDonalds and other establishments serving coffee accounted for this ruling by improving the quality of the containers and lowering the serving temperature (sometimes): a good outcome.

Also I should note that in any legal system precedent (used broadly) is important, and one element of the coffee case only briefly hinted at in the link is that McDonalds was found to have settled out of court hundreds of similar coffee cases prior to this one, which went to trial because plaintiff and defendant could not agree on a settlement. The prior settlements helped to establish that McDonalds was conscious of potential liability and defect in the products yet did not act to amend this.

[Gilrandir]

The facts and claims of the coffee lawsuit don't seem to have any relevance to the legal aspects of this case, and the coffee case was perfectly sensible and worthwhile. Usually in our legal system negligence, if evident, produces liability (http://injury.findlaw.com/product-liability/what-is-product-liability.html) The burns in the coffee case (http://corporate.findlaw.com/litigation-disputes/products-liability-law-explaining-the-mcdonald-s-coffee-case.html) were directly associated with very high serving temperatures and flimsy containers:



What you have to distinguish between is whether the hazard of hot liquid is obvious, and whether the hot liquid product is served, packaged, or conveyed in a risky manner. The second point is independent of the first.

McDonalds and other establishments serving coffee accounted for this ruling by improving the quality of the containers and lowering the serving temperature (sometimes): a good outcome.

Also I should note that in any legal system precedent (used broadly) is important, and one element of the coffee case only briefly hinted at in the link is that McDonalds was found to have settled out of court hundreds of similar coffee cases prior to this one, which went to trial because plaintiff and defendant could not agree on a settlement. The prior settlements helped to establish that McDonalds was conscious of potential liability and defect in the products yet did not act to amend this.

I wasn't talking about legal aspect or serving potentially dangerous wares to the customers. EVERYTHING may eventually hurt people.

What I had in mind is that such weird charges and lawsuits lead to manufacturers growing attempts to "warn" the customers they may get hurt by their products if they are mishahdled or misused. Consequently, some of these warnings seem as weird as the abovementioned charges. For instance I heard that chainsaws have a warning not to touch the mechanism when it is on. Like a person in sober senses may do the opposite!

So, what I'm driving at: if the house owners who suffered from the flood complain that they were not EXPLICITLY warned of the danger (which is crystal clear to everybody when FLOOD PLAIN is mentioned) they may still win the case. They would say that the danger of flood wasn't mentioned in the ownership documents (don't know the correct name for them) and no boards with respective warnings had been spotted near the houses for sale.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I always love the little desiccant packets with their "do not eat" label.

[Montmorency]

I wasn't talking about legal aspect or serving potentially dangerous wares to the customers. EVERYTHING may eventually hurt people.

What I had in mind is that such weird charges and lawsuits lead to manufacturers growing attempts to "warn" the customers they may get hurt by their products if they are mishahdled or misused. Consequently, some of these warnings seem as weird as the abovementioned charges. For instance I heard that chainsaws have a warning not to touch the mechanism when it is on. Like a person in sober senses may do the opposite!

So, what I'm driving at: if the house owners who suffered from the flood complain that they were not EXPLICITLY warned of the danger (which is crystal clear to everybody when FLOOD PLAIN is mentioned) they may still win the case. They would say that the danger of flood wasn't mentioned in the ownership documents (don't know the correct name for them) and no boards with respective warnings had been spotted near the houses for sale.

Not really. What you seized upon was that both cases involve liability, but so do most legal matters, and there are many different forms of liability. Lessons drawn from one case may not apply to another.

The one you invoked involved corporate business liability with respect to consumer goods and purchases. The Texas flooding suit involves, among other things, the liability of the federal government in its use, seizure, or destruction of private land and property (as a Constitutional issue).

These are just different cases and different kinds of law.

[Gilrandir]

Not really. What you seized upon was that both cases involve liability, but so do most legal matters, and there are many different forms of liability. Lessons drawn from one case may not apply to another.

The one you invoked involved corporate business liability with respect to consumer goods and purchases. The Texas flooding suit involves, among other things, the liability of the federal government in its use, seizure, or destruction of private land and property (as a Constitutional issue).

These are just different cases and different kinds of law.

Probably. I am no lawyer. But it seems to me this "we weren't explicitly told" may be used by the suitors.