View Full Version : Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)
So upcoming Sunday, Germany, country where the sun always goes down, will have its federal elections, where Angela Merkel is challenged by...absolutely noone.
The last polls I saw had her party at 37% of the vote, followed by the SPD at a mere 20%.
Running behind them are the:
AfD at 12%
FDP at 9.5%
Die Linke at 9%
and the Greens at I forgot percent (I think around 7%).
Here's a nice video where a friendly American explains some differences to the US election and some other basics about our election:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFO3vUFi11I
If you're somewhat informed, you may see several things:
1. The refugee crisis has not hurt Merkel AT ALL. In fact she is even stronger now relative to the other parties. It's as though the AfD (anti-immigrants) drew all of its strength from her political opponents (and current allies in government, the SPD) and weakened them a lot. This is why she is also known as the Teflon-chancellor, none of the criticism seems to stick on her.
2. A whole lot of people seem to be content with current politics despite the seemingly high criticism. The people who are not seem to seek the solution on the right side of the political spectrum. Both the AfD and the FDP (between democrats and libertarians in the US) gained a lot of votes.
3. Social justice is overrated, has been made unbelievable or is not really wanted, let's indulge in more neoliberal corporatism instead. Or maybe it's just that the Left suck up to Russia too much or that they're called populists similar to Sanders in the US. The SPD is basically seen as having betrayed its voters in recent years/decades by cutting social programs etc. The AfD only pretends to be social but actually seems to be pro-corporate, much like their heroes from the thirties.
4. Perceptions and memories seem really weird, hypocrisy and strangeness is everywhere. The AfD is German-national and pro-family (anti-homosexual) and their candidate for chancellor is an attractive woman who lives with her partner, another woman, in Switzerland. :dizzy2: Merkel failed terribly to address the Diesel scandal, her incompetent minister arranged for corporations to introduce some half-baked improvements to Diesel cars and even the corporatist FDP leader claims the corporations should have paid much more and potentially not even made a profit for a while to pay for fixing the cars properly. The Greens are in control of the state that owns large parts of VW and the state's prime minister, a Green party guy, was defending VW. *insert facepalm* Obviously all the parties have flexible morals when it comes to money and winning elections. Only Merkel will win anyway thanks to her teflon abilities.
And the Left? They hate Capitalism and the US so much that they would rather cuddle with Putin (the AfD also believes we should cuddle more with him btw.). While I personally think they have some good points on social justice and stopping arms exports that only facilitate more wars in third world countries, they also have their share of annoying ideas, oh and they are also not fond of the EU.
And the Greens? A recent study found their voters want all kinds of change, but they only want other people to change and not change themselves, and they're mostly above average wage earners, too. :dizzy2:
Needless to say that I feel that despite the relatively large number of parties, I feel it's hard to find one that actually somewhat represents me. I guess I will go with more social justice though, even though it seems relatively fruitless with the CDU having almost twice the percentage of votes as the runner up. The two possible coalitions at the moment are CDU + SPD as it currently is or CDU + FDP + Greens, which would mean more neoliberalism and pro-corporate politics most likely.
Here's also our age structure, evil people may draw their conclusions: http://www.indexmundi.com/germany/age_structure.html
What I really don't get either is how small business owners continue to vote for liberal parties promising lower taxes when these measures only ever help the big corporations that are the ones suffocating the small businesses (economies of scale etc.) in the first place? They place all the blame on the government suffocating them with taxes and then vote for the parties that historically only lower the taxes for big business regardless of their promises. It's not even surprising considering the biggest donors to political parties are rich people and corporations, as can be seen here(all donations over 50k€, since those have to be made public): https://www.bundestag.de/parlament/praesidium/parteienfinanzierung/fundstellen50000/2017/2017-inhalt/488236
What's also "funny" on that list is that the Danish culture ministerium is giving money to a very small minority party in northern Germany. I guess if V. Putin were on that list giving money to The Left and the AfD, there'd be a poopstorm all over the internet, but I didn't even know about this until I checked the list yesterday. I know it's small and seemingly insignificant, but it's a foreign government funding/influencing politics here.
Eh, I'm done, opinions and apologies welcome. :creep:
Gilrandir
09-18-2017, 15:21
Eh, I'm done, opinions and apologies welcome. :creep:
No, you are not. You will be when the sun goes down on Sunday. And who will you vote for (if such direct questions are allowed)?
No, you are not. You will be when the sun goes down on Sunday. And who will you vote for (if such direct questions are allowed)?
I meant that I was done bringing up somewhat random points about our politics.
Of course it is allowed to ask who I will vote for, it's just not allowed to force me to provide an answer.
I forgot to mention that some say an unusually large amount of voters are still undecided.
For myself, I think it's a mix of smallest evil, preferences, general directions and voting tactics and then I'm "left" with...The Left.
They're not perfect, but the only ones with a somewhat believable socialist program that doesn't rely on more privatization and other evils that have increased wealth and income inequality for the past few decades.
Kralizec
09-18-2017, 18:47
I meant that I was done bringing up somewhat random points about our politics.
Of course it is allowed to ask who I will vote for, it's just not allowed to force me to provide an answer.
I forgot to mention that some say an unusually large amount of voters are still undecided.
For myself, I think it's a mix of smallest evil, preferences, general directions and voting tactics and then I'm "left" with...The Left.
They're not perfect, but the only ones with a somewhat believable socialist program that doesn't rely on more privatization and other evils that have increased wealth and income inequality for the past few decades.
I don't know. I'm obviously not a German (I actually like Sigmar Gabriel) but I would personally never vote for a party that so closely associates itself with the old DDR. These guys walked out of parliament because the former president (a noted DDR dissident and critic) was going to give a speech, and a large chunk of the members from the East were actual Stasi informers at one point in their life.
I know that the DDR isn't controversial for many people who actually lived in it and I don't begrudge them their right to have themselves represented, but I certainly would never join them :shrug:
I don't know. I'm obviously not a German (I actually like Sigmar Gabriel) but I would personally never vote for a party that so closely associates itself with the old DDR. These guys walked out of parliament because the former president (a noted DDR dissident and critic) was going to give a speech, and a large chunk of the members from the East were actual Stasi informers at one point in their life.
I know that the DDR isn't controversial for many people who actually lived in it and I don't begrudge them their right to have themselves represented, but I certainly would never join them :shrug:
Well, they're only half a former DDR party, the other half was a new party (forgot the name) that merged with them into the left. I can't find the incident right now, but from what I read they blamed Gauck for having been too friendly with the DDR, not for being too critical. Or maybe that was just the side of their party that's less crazy. It is my impression that the party has largely moved on or at least enough that I'd rather vote for them than any of the other crazies. It's not a love at first sight, more like the lesser evil. Or call it a tactical choice. There's a small chance that I would try the SPD, but as I said they lost a lot of trustworthiness. Every other major party is basically on the more capitalism hypetrain and will basically end up lowering taxes for some while raising the costs of everything people need. Obviously this tends to hit those the most, who earn so little that they barely pay any taxes anyway. How that could be a more moral choice I do not see.
Ideally I would like a party that is pro-EU (in general, not necessarily exactly the way it works now), aligns with our Western allies mostly, but is open to other countries, supports a return to a more social form of capitalism, stops and perhaps reverts some aspects of privatization of basic commodities, supports more market transparency, better education, higher infrastructure investments and measures to stop the wealth gap from growing and poverty from increasing. I could to some degree support a later retirement age and other things to make up for the costs. In a very ideal case, the party would also have a decent vision for how to solve the issues of growing mechanization and replacement of workers with capital/machines. While not quite there (mass replacement) yet, I can see us reacting to that trend way too late.
Montmorency
09-18-2017, 20:23
Some say Germany has once again forgotten how to be democratic under Merkelreich, but on the other hand she's more left-wing than most possible German governments.
The prophecy declares that if she can outlast Putin in office Germany absorbs Russia.
What's also "funny" on that list is that the Danish culture ministerium is giving money to a very small minority party in northern Germany. I guess if V. Putin were on that list giving money to The Left and the AfD, there'd be a poopstorm all over the internet, but I didn't even know about this until I checked the list yesterday. I know it's small and seemingly insignificant, but it's a foreign government funding/influencing politics here.
Isn't that about Denmark and Schleswig-Holstein wanting more Danish-cultural education because they're still sore over annexation?
Some say Germany has once again forgotten how to be democratic under Merkelreich, but on the other hand she's more left-wing than most possible German governments.
Some say she moved left to destroy the SPD. The problem is that leaves no big party that has actual social democratic agenda since the SPD seemingly abandoned theirs when they enacted the Hartz IV reforms (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartz_concept). Ever since the SPD allied with Merkel, they lost even more popularity. Martin Schulz is trying to reform this, or seemingly trying, but people, including myself, are not sure he can be trusted it seems. There's a chance that I will support him and the SPD after all, but voting for the left might show them that more social democracy is really wanted. The Left would also likely have to become an ally if they even get a chance to beat the CDU.
On a sidenote, I edited my last post with what I would like to see in a party. The SPD would have a lot of that if they didn't happen to appear like they were just talking about social justice only to betray it once elected.
The prophecy declares that if she can outlast Putin in office Germany absorbs Russia.
:laugh4:
Isn't that about Denmark and Schleswig-Holstein wanting more Danish-cultural education because they're still sore over annexation?
I really have no idea what that is about, it's a somewhat more local issue but also an oddity I didn't want to leave out in case anyone would actually look at the list of donations and wonder why there are strange Danish words in between all the strange German ones. I would actually hope our countries are friendly now and that the EU superstate would end all border quibbles anyway before some multinational tobacco cartel forces us all to give our babies cigarettes for breakfast. :creep:
Rather boring, going to be that plumb childless muti anyway, dispite her disastrous birdcall I wonder how AfD wil do after the rather odd things they recently said, not the club I hoped they would be.
Gilrandir
09-19-2017, 19:46
The prophecy declares that if she can outlast Putin in office Germany absorbs Russia.
... only to be later absorbed by North Korea.
rory_20_uk
09-20-2017, 21:44
Most of us are hanging on to Merkel as a symbol of sane, stable leadership. Please, don't take Merkel from me...
~:smoking:
Most of us are hanging on to Merkel as a symbol of sane, stable leadership. Please, don't take Merkel from me...
~:smoking:
Your opinion might matter if it wasn't for Brexit... ~;p
Greyblades
09-21-2017, 11:46
Most of us are hanging on to Merkel as a symbol of sane, stable leadership. Please, don't take Merkel from me...
~:smoking: Merkel a symbol of sane and stable leadership to you?
Christ you guys have really gone off the deep end since my hiatus
Merkel a symbol of sane and stable leadership to you?
Christ you guys have really gone off the deep end since my hiatus
That's what she is though, to everyone who isn't scared of the black man.
And I'm pretty sure it's just you being so high now that makes it seem like we fell down the deep end...matter of perspective...
That's what she is though, to everyone who isn't scared of the black man.
Oh please... that spell has a negative perk youknow, it gets less powerfull every time when cast against realismus
Oh please... that spell has a negative perk youknow, it gets less powerfull every time when cast against realismus
People inside the bubble of the realismus spell like to think so, that doesn't make it true however. Could just be the negative side effects of that spell bubble they're in.
Greyblades
09-21-2017, 14:50
And you think I am the high one here?
That's what she is though, to everyone who isn't scared of the black man.
And I'm pretty sure it's just you being so high now that makes it seem like we fell down the deep end...matter of perspective...
Husar in your perspective the americans are run by hitler 2.821.d and the british are 37% brain dead. I am not even sure the degree at which I am exagerrating there, but when the greatest comparitors are abject failures the medocre looks masterful and to see it this way is typical of a sound human mind.
However to think the woman, that has fostered the most destructive mass migration into europe since the thirteenth century ,can be graded as highly as merely medeocre is not sound.
People inside the bubble of the realismus spell like to think so, that doesn't make it true however. Could just be the negative side effects of that spell bubble they're in.
Awwwww common, everybody know Merkel's little children cause major problems, ask your own police how things work in the real world
Husar in your perspective the americans are run by hitler 2.821.d and the british are 37% brain dead. I am not even sure the degree at which I am exagerrating there, but when the greatest comparitors are abject failures the medocre looks masterful and to see it this way is typical of a sound human mind.
However to think the woman, that has fostered the most destructive mass migration into europe since the thirteenth century ,can be graded as highly as merely medeocre is not sound.
Outside of alt-right bubbles, there was no "most destructive mass migration". And if the rest of that seriously represents how you interprete my opinion as given in this very thread (or even just what rory said), then you may need to come down from that high to regain a working reading comprehension. In my world, sane and stable does not equal masterful in any way.
What you and Fragony may want to ask yourselves, is why Merkel's CDU is now seen as the go-to party for internal security when they were the ones who caused the problems by lowering police budgets and supposedly also by letting all those people in.
Damage has already been done and there is no alternative except the AfD who has become shady, that doesn't mean the Gernans are appy with her, big dispite
Montmorency
09-21-2017, 23:39
Damage has already been done and there is no alternative except the AfD who has become shady, that doesn't mean the Gernans are appy with her, big dispite
What do you mean by "shady"?
Husar English version of this (https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/kultur/artikel/842355/lessings-nathan-humanitaet-bleibt-ohne-chance#gallery&61798&3&842355) por favor?
Husar English version of this (https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/kultur/artikel/842355/lessings-nathan-humanitaet-bleibt-ohne-chance#gallery&61798&3&842355) por favor?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_the_Wise
Apparently this theatric version doesn't end well though, noone listens to reason and they all shout "God is great!" at the end. Don't think I can find a local newspaper article in English if that is what you're after.
Seamus Fermanagh
09-22-2017, 02:00
Skin color is a silly reason to fear anybody.
Are their concerns with assimilation of refugees and immigrants? Cultural values that clash and which may tend to radicalize a higher percentage of these immigrants than from previous immigrant groups? Certainly.
Even so, the bulk of those immigrating or living as refugees are more or less decent people just trying to better their lot in life. You need to deal with the problem ones without unfairly stereotyping the group at large.
To give Merkel a dash of credit, Germany has allowed in more refugees per capita than many other polities in Europe, while having no more -- and arguably compared to France and Sweden notably less -- of the problems associated with these groups than the rest in the EU.
Montmorency
09-22-2017, 03:12
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_the_Wise
Apparently this theatric version doesn't end well though, noone listens to reason and they all shout "God is great!" at the end. Don't think I can find a local newspaper article in English if that is what you're after.
I read the original play in English translation, I meant this new version - English text or video with subtitles. Probably not to be found.
To give Merkel a dash of credit, Germany has allowed in more refugees per capita than many other polities in Europe, while having no more -- and arguably compared to France and Sweden notably less -- of the problems associated with these groups than the rest in the EU.
The recent wave of refugees and attendant difficulties is notably separate from any problems Germany and France and have had with long-established Turkish or North African demographics, respectively.
The most serious impediments to cultural harmony in Europe today are largely a factor of nativist right-wing hostility and intransigence. One precondition to flourishing is the rejection of both the European and Muslim reactionary elements.
It's sad that Eastern Europeans are among the worst offenders, because with their commitment their countries' depopulated rural zones could be revitalized through refugee resettlement and investment.
If you want another moonbat lefty humanist work of theater, set a play where Syrians arrive in the Bulgarian mountains, a lonely babushka finds meaning in her life by becoming engaged in the upbringing of the newcomers' children, everyone learns the value of community, everyone is sad when the seniors pass away, but are left optimistic with an eye to the future. THE END :knuddel:
What do you mean by "shady"?
They kinda freak me out since Frauke left, the reliance on bringing up the nazi-past and the constant framing of people who have very good reasons to be against mass-immigration is backfiring, a lot of Germans had enough of of that, a bit too much it seems at least
The most serious impediments to cultural harmony in Europe today are largely a factor of nativist right-wing hostility and intransigence. One precondition to flourishing is the rejection of both the European and Muslim reactionary elements.
No, the problems happen when you have large amounts of working-class immigrants of certain origins concentrating in specific places. It is the common denominator of France and Sweden, and is an outcome that becomes more probable the higher the relevant immigration rates are - naturally.
What rightwing-hostility by the way? Violence is exclusive to the black hoodies, anti-facists lol@that
Ah well, it's good for the economy, organs got a lot cheaper
What rightwing-hostility by the way? Violence is exclusive to the black hoodies, anti-facists lol@that
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-222-refugee-homes-burned-or-attacked-arrests-a6763506.html
http://www.deutschlandfunk.de/hetzjagd-auf-fluechtlinge-aberhunderte-attacken-auf.694.de.html?dram:article_id=342199
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MU5u9DxZyYs
http://www.fluchschrift.net/archiv/swansea.htm
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/06/germany-failing-to-tackle-rise-in-hate-crime/
http://atlantablackstar.com/2014/01/08/8-worst-countries-black-people-travel/
https://www.thelocal.de/20160111/racist-attacks-ratchet-up-tension-in-cologne
That's disgusting but Ii can totally understand that people don'twant them near them, immigrant criime, especially sexual, is swept under the rug by the socalled institutionally racist police, that is a wellknown practise. These few racist attacks are incidents before becommig a trend, a shame they happen. Sexual violence is a trend.
Should have said 'almost exclusively'
That's disgusting but Ii can totally understand that people don'twant them near them, immigrant criime, especially sexual, is swept under the rug by the socalled institutionally racist police, that is a wellknown practise. These few racist attacks are incidents before becommig a trend, a shame they happen. Sexual violence is a trend.
Should have said 'almost exclusively'
Sounds like they sweep everything under the rug then: From the first link:
The country, which has led the humanitarian response to the refugee crisis, has recorded 222 attacks on homes but only a five-per-cent conviction rate.
[...]
Because attackers were targeting homes at night - often throwing Molotov cocktails from moving cars or heavy stones at windows - police say they are difficult to catch.
But a lack of police officers, particularly in eastern parts of Germany, has also been blamed.
Police really don't seem to catch anyone anymore...
Perhaps it really isn't so much an issue of whether police are way too racist or way too PC but just that politicians don't care and just lowered the budgets further and further. I think the CDU promised 15k more policemen. Makes me wonder whether that is even sufficient.
There were some other, more general reports about how many German cities had lost their medical examiners to budget cuts and the remaining ones are overworked, which slows down the police investigations etc.
Combine also with the reports about how Germany is the favourite retirement home for mafia bosses and killers as well as being a major hub for human trafficking and maybe the major issue is just that somehow our politicians seem to do absolutely nothing against criminals anymore as long as it's not an easily visible crime making the national headlines. And even then a lot of what they do may be completely unsuitable to solve or deter further crimes.
That's not to say it's terrible here, but if we continue to cripple the police force, maybe it will be. One of the articles mentions that security has been largely privatized, so private security is often guarding the refugee homes, and many of the guards are racists themselves. In other words, it might just be neoliberalism at work once again... Privatize the hell out of everything and then blame it on something else and hope people forget before you actually have to do something about it. Given Merkel's approval rating it appears to be a viable tactic...
Seamus Fermanagh
09-22-2017, 18:49
I read the original play in English translation, I meant this new version - English text or video with subtitles. Probably not to be found.
The recent wave of refugees and attendant difficulties is notably separate from any problems Germany and France and have had with long-established Turkish or North African demographics, respectively.
The most serious impediments to cultural harmony in Europe today are largely a factor of nativist right-wing hostility and intransigence. One precondition to flourishing is the rejection of both the European and Muslim reactionary elements.
It's sad that Eastern Europeans are among the worst offenders, because with their commitment their countries' depopulated rural zones could be revitalized through refugee resettlement and investment.
If you want another moonbat lefty humanist work of theater, set a play where Syrians arrive in the Bulgarian mountains, a lonely babushka finds meaning in her life by becoming engaged in the upbringing of the newcomers' children, everyone learns the value of community, everyone is sad when the seniors pass away, but are left optimistic with an eye to the future. THE END :knuddel:
Scored with Smetana's Ma Vlast
HopAlongBunny
09-23-2017, 12:14
If the actual American experience (as opposed to Trump's bugbear in the closet) is anything to go by, immigrants are responsible for less crime/capita than natural born citizens.
Problems with the data aside, this would suggest a viable way to reduce the crime rate is increased immigration
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/illegal-immigrants-and-crime-how-big-a-problem-is-crime-committed-by-immigrants/
Seamus Fermanagh
09-23-2017, 16:36
If the actual American experience (as opposed to Trump's bugbear in the closet) is anything to go by, immigrants are responsible for less crime/capita than natural born citizens.
Problems with the data aside, this would suggest a viable way to reduce the crime rate is increased immigration
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/illegal-immigrants-and-crime-how-big-a-problem-is-crime-committed-by-immigrants/
This is wonderfully ironic, in that the non-diploma'd male population who bothered to vote at all voted overwhelmingly for Trump. And the study suggests that, setting aside illegal entry to the USA as moot, the non-diploma'd male subset is 8 times more likely to engage in criminal behaviors than male illegals of a similar age.
Gilrandir
09-24-2017, 04:50
Damage has already been done and there is no alternative except the AfD who has become shady, that doesn't mean the Gernans are appy with her, big dispite
Come on Fragony, admit it: however critical you might have been about her ability to handle the situation, sie hat das geschaffen.
Come on Fragony, admit it: however critical you might have been about her ability to handle the situation, sie hat das geschaffen.
She hasn't. She might schaff das but there are major problems. All succes-stories come from the first arivals, 3% of German's new neighbours. The rest are horny young single males who get a bit confused when they see these lovely frauleins. If it doesn't look that bad it is because it's kept out of the statistics, artificial succes, or better, a lie. Germans have to be figurants in a play, it will go the same as in Sweden if it doesn't already
Gilrandir
09-24-2017, 12:48
She hasn't. She might schaff das but there are major problems. All succes-stories come from the first arivals, 3% of German's new neighbours. The rest are horny young single males who get a bit confused when they see these lovely frauleins. If it doesn't look that bad it is because it's kept out of the statistics, artificial succes, or better, a lie. Germans have to be figurants in a play, it will go the same as in Sweden if it doesn't already
I have an impression that she has. The influx of immigrants (on such a scale as it used to be) has ceased, I don't hear any news of major troubles with those who are already there. Ultimately, the German voters will decide whether she hat das geschaffen or not.
I have an impression that she has. The influx of immigrants (on such a scale as it used to be) has ceased, I don't hear any news of major troubles with those who are already there. Ultimately, the German voters will decide whether she hat das geschaffen or not.
Hungary has closed the Balkan-route, and Austria the meditenarian, only bebause of the Visegrad-zone Merkel can relax a bit. She knows she screwed up as she says that it must never happen again. What she got she wants the European community to fix for her but they aren't very eager to schaff das for her. Especially the visegrad-countries tell her to schaff das herself, they don't want them. The Childless mutti is stuck witb a million horny young males of which many are hobby genealogists
Hungary has closed the Balkan-route, and Austria the meditenarian, only bebause of the Visegrad-zone Merkel can relax a bit. She knows she screwed up as she says that it must never happen again. What she got she wants the European community to fix for her but they aren't very eager to schaff das for her. Especially the visegrad-countries tell her to schaff das herself, they don't want them. The Childless mutti is stuck witb a million horny young males of which many are hobby genealogists
Funny how that works, they didn't build any fences when their workers came here to undercut our wages, pay no taxes and rob our cars and homes. But God forbid there's an EU system that they think they don't only benefit from. Then the fences go up within days. How about we build a wall and throw all the eastern euro workers out who "stole our jobs"? If they want to play that game, we should do it, too.
Funny how it works works indeed. And when you crave for a problem on top of that it should be even funnier It isn't sadly
edit, how surprising, ex'-stasi and queen of the flood Merkel wins, I wish this was only bad for Germany but Germany is basicly boss of the EU
Funny how that works, they didn't build any fences when their workers came here to undercut our wages, pay no taxes and rob our cars and homes. But God forbid there's an EU system that they think they don't only benefit from. Then the fences go up within days. How about we build a wall and throw all the eastern euro workers out who "stole our jobs"? If they want to play that game, we should do it, too.
That would probably have gone over well in the mid-90s after the initial 'high' of the Mauerfall passed. Fact is though that East Europeans are culturally more similar to Germans and less likely to end up of forming cultural enclave ghettos due to easier transition into the overall society to include upward mobility. I know I've seen enough sketch comedy from Britain about all the Polish and Hungarian workers that took British jobs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd8oX5NJt84
While open borders sounds good there always needs to be a limit, if the whole of Afghanistan or Nigeria wanted to move to Germany would that be okay? Just because someone wants to move to country X doesn't mean they have a right to. Closed borders and purely ethnic criteria are equally wrong, no need to go back to the Nazi or Communist periods. It is possible to restrict the immigration of non-EU migrants without being racists. The refugee crisis does need fixing but allowing all to enter and forcing the member states to accommodate a quota of refugees isn't the answer.
Unfortunately the solution would require Germany/EU to engage in a active foreign policy in Libya and Syria which includes the possibility of military occupation/peacekeeping until security is well enough established for local governance to be effective and responsive. Leaving the security and stability of Europe's periphery to the US and Russia is obviously not working for the EU which is directly impacted.
As for the election, it will be interesting to see the SPD and AfD as the 'opposition' seeing as the SPD opted out of a Grand Coalition. I don't envision them working together much if at all but seeing German politics with less consensus and more debate will be interesting to say the least.
That would probably have gone over well in the mid-90s after the initial 'high' of the Mauerfall passed. Fact is though that East Europeans are culturally more similar to Germans and less likely to end up of forming cultural enclave ghettos due to easier transition into the overall society to include upward mobility. I know I've seen enough sketch comedy from Britain about all the Polish and Hungarian workers that took British jobs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd8oX5NJt84
While open borders sounds good there always needs to be a limit, if the whole of Afghanistan or Nigeria wanted to move to Germany would that be okay? Just because someone wants to move to country X doesn't mean they have a right to. Closed borders and purely ethnic criteria are equally wrong, no need to go back to the Nazi or Communist periods. It is possible to restrict the immigration of non-EU migrants without being racists. The refugee crisis does need fixing but allowing all to enter and forcing the member states to accommodate a quota of refugees isn't the answer.
Unfortunately the solution would require Germany/EU to engage in a active foreign policy in Libya and Syria which includes the possibility of military occupation/peacekeeping until security is well enough established for local governance to be effective and responsive. Leaving the security and stability of Europe's periphery to the US and Russia is obviously not working for the EU which is directly impacted.
As for the election, it will be interesting to see the SPD and AfD as the 'opposition' seeing as the SPD opted out of a Grand Coalition. I don't envision them working together much if at all but seeing German politics with less consensus and more debate will be interesting to say the least.
It's not just about accommodating them all, it's also about helping Italy and Greece who get "flooded" with refugees regardless of fences.
I get that we can't just invite all of Africa and the ME to come here, the problem is that if the refugees get processedby a few countries which are overwhelmed. The fence option also came a bit late once a huge number of people were already there. They had to be helped and processed by someone. And of course the xenophobic approach always "works", the more you openly hate foreigners, the easier it becomes to claim they hate you back.
It's all just more "Me, me, me, me!"
Spain also gets overrun sometimes and they resort toillegally sending people back sometimes. What would we do if we did set up refugee centers in the affected regions? Would Poland let Italy, Greece and Spain do it alone again or would they also send money and personnel? Why are they not doing it now already if they have so much better ideas?
Also the forecasts show the CDU did lose quite a few percent, AfD is third strongest.
The SPD already excluded another "big coalition" with the CDU. That leaves the so-called Jamaica-coalition of CDU, FDP and Greens as the most likely new government. If they can't reach an agreement it might get even more interesting.
https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/912041456927469570/photo/1
edit: slightly different forecast plus article in English: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-election-merkel-wins-and-afd-wins-seats-in-parliament-a-1169587.html
The processing bit is the problem, they should be sent back right to the country they departed from. If they tried to crossed over from Libya to Italy send them right back to Libya, don't even let them step foot in Italy. This would dump them in the lap of the 'smugglers' that profit from the current arrangement and kill that business line for them. The current system where they are 'rescued' just off the Libyan coast and then brought into Italy is a farce. Same goes for Morocco which tolerates the 'invasion' of the Spanish enclaves for political reasons. You don't see this problem happening in Algeria because Algeria does not tolerate it.
The bigger problem is how to stabilize Libya which needs the EU to probably invade, occupy, and then transition to self government again with all the problems of war, neo-colonialism, and violence that would entail.
The little countries are being selfish, yes, but that is their right too. Italy, Greece, and Spain shouldn't have to deal with it alone and those little countries should be contributing to a much larger and more effective FRONTEX which sends these illegal migrants right back to Turkey, Libya, and Morocco. The current solution of allowing them all in and then 'processing' them is essentially an open door because the 'processed' migrants are already let in and if deportation is determined for the individual one can only hope that they don't just go to another EU country to try again. Remember this is THE issue that essentially caused the Brexit. No migrant open door by Merkel and the Brits would more likely have elected to remain within. Understandably that's why Germany and France seek to punish the UK to discourage their recent EU joinees from leaving thereby draining it of it's cheaper Eastern Bloc labor pool.
The xenophobic approach is a reaction to poor policy. At least the political system in Germany allows a party like the AfD to do its thing. It'd be far worse if those elements high-jacked an existing party and changed it like the tea party faction did to the Republicans in the US giving us a President Trump.
Sarmatian
09-24-2017, 22:30
Even if she persuades Greens and FDP, Merkel is looking at a very fragile government.
Montmorency
09-25-2017, 00:07
The processing bit is the problem, they should be sent back right to the country they departed from. If they tried to crossed over from Libya to Italy send them right back to Libya, don't even let them step foot in Italy. This would dump them in the lap of the 'smugglers' that profit from the current arrangement and kill that business line for them. The current system where they are 'rescued' just off the Libyan coast and then brought into Italy is a farce. Same goes for Morocco which tolerates the 'invasion' of the Spanish enclaves for political reasons. You don't see this problem happening in Algeria because Algeria does not tolerate it.
The bigger problem is how to stabilize Libya which needs the EU to probably invade, occupy, and then transition to self government again with all the problems of war, neo-colonialism, and violence that would entail.
The little countries are being selfish, yes, but that is their right too. Italy, Greece, and Spain shouldn't have to deal with it alone and those little countries should be contributing to a much larger and more effective FRONTEX which sends these illegal migrants right back to Turkey, Libya, and Morocco. The current solution of allowing them all in and then 'processing' them is essentially an open door because the 'processed' migrants are already let in and if deportation is determined for the individual one can only hope that they don't just go to another EU country to try again. Remember this is THE issue that essentially caused the Brexit. No migrant open door by Merkel and the Brits would more likely have elected to remain within. Understandably that's why Germany and France seek to punish the UK to discourage their recent EU joinees from leaving thereby draining it of it's cheaper Eastern Bloc labor pool.
The xenophobic approach is a reaction to poor policy. At least the political system in Germany allows a party like the AfD to do its thing. It'd be far worse if those elements high-jacked an existing party and changed it like the tea party faction did to the Republicans in the US giving us a President Trump.
Under the Refugee conventions I believe processing is obligated if they are found within the territory of the country. I think if they implemented your disposition, it would only remove a few thousand from the pool, since most migrant seacraft do not experience distress or land without being intercepted.
One of the problems of occupying Libya now - besides all the other ones - is that you would seem to need a UN-sponsored mission that backs one of the factions, presumably the already UN-sponsored GNA. Also, both factions are currently being played off each other by Putin's Russia. Or if you don't have one side, even no sides, then how do you secure the Libyan coasts and ports?
I think a coordinated EU response in the Mediterranean and the North Med coast is more approachable than investing heavily into a Libyan occupation, which doesn't even get at the source of most refugees down that channel.
It is wrong to assume that the EU leadership wants to "punish" Britain in order to prevent members from leaving. Those members currently don't want to leave; the point is to prevent those members from trying to leverage special treatment and exemptions the way the UK did.
Even if she persuades Greens and FDP, Merkel is looking at a very fragile government.
This DW tool (http://www.dw.com/en/top-stories/german-election/s-100649) for the election results is handy. There doesn't seem to be any possible coalition to eject the CSU/CDU if AfD don't participate, unless it's a coalition of all 'not-CSU/CDU', which won't happen. So doesn't Merkel have the upper hand in forming a minority government if she chooses to?
Aside from AfD the clear winner is the FDP. Default conservative fallback?
Under the Refugee conventions I believe processing is obligated if they are found within the territory of the country. I think if they implemented your disposition, it would only remove a few thousand from the pool, since most migrant seacraft do not experience distress or land without being intercepted.
Most migrants are not refugees as defined by the UN but migrating for economic purposes, I believe the number that came out in the summer was 70% of the migrants crossing the med are not definition refugees fleeing war or violence.
I will stay out of this thread regarding this topic after this so I don't completely derail this when there's already a thread for migrants/refugees.
I was using the same DW tool for the results, it is a good tool. I also liked their guide on the different 'color options' for coalitions. It will be a very trying time for Merkel, she's said she doesn't want to form a minority government so she'll have to give some strong concessions I imagine like happened in Britain.
German election: Can the Greens and FDP join Angela Merkel in a coalition?
The Greens and the Free Democrats have traditionally been bitter rivals in Germany. But will these two smaller parties put aside their differences for a chance at a coalition with the conservatives and a share in power?
http://www.dw.com/en/german-election-can-the-greens-and-fdp-join-angela-merkel-in-a-coalition/a-40507075
FDP and the Greens? That would be a laugh. Only constant so far is that nobody wants to work with AFD, which is understandable, too many questionabe folks, too unstable internally. Minority government an option in Germany? That's how christian-democrats and liberals could form a government with support from the PVV as long as they didn't piss Wilders of too much (didn't work)
Gilrandir
09-25-2017, 14:09
I wonder why Brenus says nothing about 94 parliamentary seats taken by neo nazis.
FDP and the Greens? That would be a laugh. Only constant so far is that nobody wants to work with AFD, which is understandable, too many questionabe folks, too unstable internally. Minority government an option in Germany? That's how christian-democrats and liberals could form a government with support from the PVV as long as they didn't piss Wilders of too much (didn't work)
Well, the Greens are pretty much "bored rich kids" as you would call them I think. Their voters are mostly from the upper income strata and don't adhere to the change they advocate. Going by how the Green government in Baden-Württemberg handled the Diesel scandal, even the environmental protection can be debated with them...
A minority government without CDU and AfD would have to include both FDP and Greens as well, except then you'd have to somehow get The Left and the FDP to agree on anything. :laugh4:
I got bord rich kids reserved for leftist activists
Sarmatian
09-25-2017, 21:48
This DW tool (http://www.dw.com/en/top-stories/german-election/s-100649) for the election results is handy. There doesn't seem to be any possible coalition to eject the CSU/CDU if AfD don't participate, unless it's a coalition of all 'not-CSU/CDU', which won't happen. So doesn't Merkel have the upper hand in forming a minority government if she chooses to?
Aside from AfD the clear winner is the FDP. Default conservative fallback?
She does, but FDP and Greens together is going to be weird.
With such a weird electoral system, I'm not sure who "owns" the seat in the end, party or the individual member. If it is the latter, having just over 50% can be a bit of a problem when pushing legislation.
She does, but FDP and Greens together is going to be weird.
With such a weird electoral system, I'm not sure who "owns" the seat in the end, party or the individual member. If it is the latter, having just over 50% can be a bit of a problem when pushing legislation.
Depends on what you mean by own. Technically the members of the parliament cannot be forced to vote along party lines, but in most cases they do. The party also cannot take away their mandate once it is given (so I guess you would say the members "own the seat"). It does not seem to matter whether they were directly elected or placed by being on a party list. I just found cases where parliamentarians switched party affiliation but kept their seat. That's a loss for their former party and a gain for their new party. Alternatively they can become independent. Of course such an action may make it less likely for them to get another mandate in the next election.
The cases I found were mostly on state level though, I'd think a coalition between the three parties could work. As I told Fragony, the Greens can be flexible with their morals and neither the CDU nor the FDP are strictly against environmental protection. I'm pretty sure they all believe in man-made global warming etc. The biggest debate topics I would expect around how far the FDP can go with corporate cronyism, how high the student loans can be that the FDP cronies can give to poorer families to suck them dry even more and how many more public services and infrastructure we should privatize... :wall:
Montmorency
09-26-2017, 19:27
Can we fold other elections and electoral events going on right now into this thread?
Iraqi Kurdistan seems set to choose independence (https://www.iraqinews.com/baghdad-politics/initial-results-show-93-voters-support-kurdistan-independence/) in a vote rejected by pretty much the whole world, and Spain is going jackboots (https://www.iraqinews.com/baghdad-politics/initial-results-show-93-voters-support-kurdistan-independence/) on Catalonia over the impending referendum.
Can we fold other elections and electoral events going on right now into this thread?
Iraqi Kurdistan seems set to choose independence (https://www.iraqinews.com/baghdad-politics/initial-results-show-93-voters-support-kurdistan-independence/) in a vote rejected by pretty much the whole world, and Spain is going jackboots (https://www.iraqinews.com/baghdad-politics/initial-results-show-93-voters-support-kurdistan-independence/) on Catalonia over the impending referendum.
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152845-New-Topic-Posting-Guideline-(Please-Read)
After some discussion, staff believes that large catch-all threads aren't the most conducive to open discussion. For example, rather than putting all posts relating to anything about President Trump in one thread, more targeted threads about the individual issues should make for easier reading and discussion.
:whip:
KukriKhan
10-03-2017, 21:20
:creep:
The childless Mutti can't form a government it seems, Germany has never been this unstable (and yeah I know but that was then we can't hold that against them, talking post WW2 Germany). Will she das Schulzen or not, interesting.
I think unstable is a bit of a dramatization. I fully understand why the SPD does not want a coalition with Merkel again, they can only lose in the end. The same people who now pressure them to do it may not vote for them later if they do...
A new election would be interesting. Make Politics Exciting Again!
Just saw that the SPD wants to negotiate now (because the president begged them to find a solution without a new election), but if they come to any agreement, they want their members to vote on it. Perhaps they have a very strong position now for the negotiations, but last time they got a lot of their ideas done but somehow Merkel got a lot of the credit and the SPD still lost votes, so it's a strange situation IMO. :dizzy2:
Schultz is going to be schafted by his own party I t think, maybe it's waterloo for the childless mutti as well. For German voters it makes sense that there will be a government with the christian-democrats and social-democrats but these two ego's will have to go Lord of the Flies on eachother somewhere else I reckon. Because it's Germany it's going to be boring but effective
Schultz is a pretty nice guy by the way, shared a coffee with him and his wife, they just decided they could share a table with us. Gave her some fruit and cheese I bought at bio-market, I hope he disliked it
Gilrandir
11-26-2017, 06:51
A new election would be interesting. Make Politics Exciting Again!
What if the new one yields the same (or almost the same) results?
Seamus Fermanagh
11-26-2017, 19:11
What if the new one yields the same (or almost the same) results?
Then its 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss."
What if the new one yields the same (or almost the same) results?
Then the excitement intensifies! ~;)
Gilrandir
11-27-2017, 13:45
Then its 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss."
But the old new boss doesn't seem capable of creating a government under the existing conditions. Is there any hope the electors' preferences will change in so short a time?
But the old new boss doesn't seem capable of creating a government under the existing conditions. Is there any hope the electors' preferences will change in so short a time?
It's Germany, no. Merkel will win because she represents stability. But there will be no new elections
But the old new boss doesn't seem capable of creating a government under the existing conditions. Is there any hope the electors' preferences will change in so short a time?
That would depend partially on whether the AfD losing a whole lot of opportunistic MGPs within such a short time would influence the decision of their voters. A lot of the protest voters would apparently vote for them again, but maybe those who thought of them as an alternative in more than just the name might change their votes. Then again that could be a minority among their voters. :laugh4:
Other influences could come from the failed negotiations and the coalition behavior of the parties. The SPD is still struggling with the coalition after signalling some willingness to negotiate now. The FDP made the coalition fail by pulling out, some like it, some don't. The Greens were willing to make heavy concessions during the negotiations, which could hurt their standing with their voters. The CSU made no or nearly no concessions, which might appeal to some of the voters they lost but made everyone outside Bavaria hate them (could hurt the CDU since they come as a package nationally). Merkel could be seen as having failed, etc.
As for going on now:
Kenia has been brought up (Black, Red, Green, basically adding the Greens to a big coalition government even though their seats would not be required, just to add flavor and aid the SPD).
Others would prefer a minority government with shifting alliances as that would cause more debate again. Others find that questionable because Merkel could then not make any promises to other countries without asking parliament first every time to see if she can keep them.
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