News in the Far East

[Shaka_Khan]

I hope he recovers.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0lYkdA-Gtw

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/japan-shinzo-abe-shot-rcna37228

Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gravely injured in shooting

Abe, Japan?s longest-serving prime minister, was giving a speech in the city of Nara ahead of an election for the upper house of Parliament...

[Shaka_Khan]

I don't know who this podcaster is, but his video explains some interesting points on Japanese politics. I have a book (John Toland's The Rising Sun) that explains Japan's chaotic political situation before WWII. It's mentioned in this interview.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EozNixNWRiI

[Crandar]

Our mainstream TV channel reported that the assassin was a fan of Che Guevara. Apparently, they mistook the culprit with Hideo Kojima, the famous video-game developer.

[spmetla]

May he rest in peace.

[Montmorency]

While listening to a podcast detailing some of the far-right background we always heard about with Shinzo Abe - keyword "Nippon Kagi" - there was a telling factoid about Japanese sovereignty. According to the guest, Japanese military planes and helicopters are prohibited from flying low over Tokyo, yet American aviation does so regularly. Imagine UN black helicopters (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_helicopter) making routine overflight of the White House. Or, I guess similarly, Eurocopters (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurocopter_EC635#Operators) over London?

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIG8BxAMpfc

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFIQDIFXUb4


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NaF1BD8-ew

I think China is bluffing. Attacking her plane means war, and I doubt China wants that now.

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0OelHl_Ga8

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVJ6x5DtoNI


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LluYgTwbB4

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Je2VFDd2S8w


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5w5EpD6EiJc


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWbhojJ3tOI

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyJKpnFMpaI

[Shaka_Khan]

Taiwan's top defense official was associated with Taiwan's missile defense program:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeYLn2yMzxs

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/amid-china-taiwan-tensions-top-taiwanese-defence-official-found-dead-in-hotel-room-report/ar-AA10mO2R

Amid China-Taiwan tensions, top Taiwanese defence official found dead in hotel room

Sat, August 6, 2022

Ou Yang Li-hsing, deputy head of Taiwan defence ministry's research and development unit, was found dead on Saturday morning in a hotel room in southern Taiwan, according to the official Central News Agency (CNA). According to CNA, authorities are looking into the cause of his death.

Ou Yang had assumed his post as the deputy head of the military-owned National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology early this year to supervise various missile production projects and was on a business trip, said CNA.

His death comes amidst tension between China and Taiwan following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.....

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BRDTL-Qh44


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPRDLqggwQU

[spmetla]

I wish the protesters all the best, with a state control apparatus such as the PRC has the odds are against them unless the protests/crackdown generates increased support. The ability of the PRC to use facial recognition features, the fact that they can use the cell phones locations to determine who is there, not to mention the sheer quantity of enforcers, both uniformed and plains clothes makes it very dangerous to speak out against anything PRC.

1989 was crushed, brutally and Xi Jinping has not shown any qualms about using similar force if needed as his internal control mechanisms can get the same effect now without tanks on the streets.

Meanwhile many EU countries are determined to continue heavy trade with the PRC despite it being against their own longterm interests. Given the tremendous effects of the Ukraine war energy crisis plus the COVID effects there'll be little outside support for those protesters much as there was so little said or done when Hong Kong's status went away.

[Montmorency]

Frankly, it doesn't make sense to materially (as opposed to morally) support extranational protesters just because they agree with you on something. Moderate-sized protests on a variety of issues routinely roil Chinese towns without anyone noticing, and there have been multiple waves of large anti-quarantine protests during the pandemic that had similarly localized motivations and aspirations. There's just no true mass movement that unites the Chinese core. Looking for ways to sustain given protests would do nothing against the government while harming long-term relations, regardless of the situation in Ukraine.

Since you mention Hong Kong, that the US bloc did little of anything during calmer times over the repression of a clear majority of a peripheral part of China, should indicate the impossibility of salutary measures on behalf of an indeterminate subset of the mainland (who are nowhere near as put upon as Uighurs anyway).

(By the by, it doesn't escape my notice that every time unrest flares up in Iran, the usual suspects heartily support Iranian protesters transitioning to insurgency against the IRGC in between calling for brutal crackdowns on American protesters who aren't even within an order of magnitude in violence of action.)

As for Chinese economics, it relies on agglomeration economies, which make it hard not to do business in China for many types of manufacturing. Every supply and value chain runs in and through China, an efficiency multiplier the CCP has carefully cultivated over decades. The TPP and derivatives were meant to reduplicate that agglomeration across a politicized bloc, but without the political pressure of American membership the logic of markets will disinvest only slowly.

[spmetla]

Frankly, it doesn't make sense to materially (as opposed to morally) support extranational protesters just because they agree with you on something.

Agreed, it can also be counter-productive. Overt US support for Iranian or Chinese protests would probably feed into the current 'foreign instigated' line used by the state to crush these protests.


Since you mention Hong Kong, that the US bloc did little of anything during calmer times over the repression of a clear majority of a peripheral part of China, should indicate the impossibility of salutary measures on behalf of an indeterminate subset of the mainland (who are nowhere near as put upon as Uighurs anyway).

Measures certainly aren't impossible, just tie the response to protests to other things. Trump and Co. didn't do anything as he didn't want to upset his negotiating for a trade deal with China which certainly doesn't look worth having lost some of our moral support. Just as China adds less overt requirements when doing trade deals, negotiating factory/industry partnerships etc... those could be tied to the crack down.
For one I'd say the US and EU should at the very least look at these protests and say "we need to ensure that Chinese citizens abroad are safely able to express themselves" and then shut down and arrest/expel those overseas 'police stations' created by the PRC. Make it clear that Chinese investments in key industries will not be allowed or will be held up indefinitely pending 'concerns' over the treatment of protesters. Start doing the same with PRC athletes over concerns over their human rights, there's no shortage of ways to weigh in without meddling directly.

In short work to isolate the PRC abroad in the major economies at the same time they have domestic problems.


(By the by, it doesn't escape my notice that every time unrest flares up in Iran, the usual suspects heartily support Iranian protesters transitioning to insurgency against the IRGC in between calling for brutal crackdowns on American protesters who aren't even within an order of magnitude in violence of action.)
No shortage of hypocrites in the US. I don't support Iranian protests going fully violent as it'd more likely just lead to a draw out civil war Syrian style than a change in government.


As for Chinese economics, it relies on agglomeration economies, which make it hard not to do business in China for many types of manufacturing. Every supply and value chain runs in and through China, an efficiency multiplier the CCP has carefully cultivated over decades. The TPP and derivatives were meant to reduplicate that agglomeration across a politicized bloc, but without the political pressure of American membership the logic of markets will disinvest only slowly.
Well, yes and no. For the past three years due to COVID problems there's be endless supply chain problems due directly to overdependence on Chinese trade and manufacturing. China has proved to be an unreliable partner in trade, protection of intellectual property, and human rights.
Revisiting TPP should certainly be done by the US, unfortunately the Dems are just horrible at how to sell it domestically. It should be marketed to the US public as an anti-PRC policy not just a globalism/free-trade policy. The high-minded ideals are important, but the average-joe doesn't seem to care too much about that but does seem to have strong but poorly formed opinions on all our 'jobs' going to China.
A deliberate US policy to build trade ties to de-couple from China would take time, better to ramp up the efforts sooner than later, especially as tensions continue over Taiwan and the South China Sea. People will better support strong actions against China if it doesn't affect them too much in the supermarket or gas station.

[Montmorency]

We did just slap heavy sanctions on the pivotal Chinese semiconductor industry, heavy enough to lock us into future conflict arguably. But it was primarily about our long-term power struggle and maybe secondarily about low-key Chinese support for Russia; the feelings of Chinese citizens won't play a role in future such measures one way or another, I expect.

Those Chinese police stations... I have a strong suspicion that these ostentatious appendages in basically every single Western country were not at all under the radar, they were just part of a mutual accommodation within certain boundaries. The old 'gentlemen's agreements' are breaking down, right? The US has been charging (https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-citizen-and-four-chinese-intelligence-officers-charged-spying-prominent-dissidents-human) a lot of people - mostly Chinese citizens (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/24/doj-indicts-nearly-a-dozen-individuals-in-china-espionage-cases-00063176) - with espionage (https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-sentences-accused-chinese-spy-20-years-prison-2022-11-16/) on behalf of China in the past year, when in the past they might have been quietly deported. We should assume our own operatives in China, and Russia, have been having a rough time of it as well.


People will better support strong actions against China if it doesn't affect them too much in the supermarket or gas station.

Global, and American, popular hostility toward China is at an all-time high since the Cold War, but price shocks are baked in. Elevated inflation worldwide will be a side effect in any decoupling with China as long as that takes to culminate, if not longer.

What we ought to be doing is selling trade blocs built around rising environmental and labor standards, including populist intent to improve standards of living in aligned middle or low-income countries (which ultimately benefits American workers too anyway). The current group of left-leaning governments in Latin America might be especially open to a legitimate offer. But it's a very difficult sell to the American Congress and business "community." Trump's NAFTA 2.0 was almost toeing the line on this where it hit upon raised wage targets for some Mexican factory workers, one of the very few genuine improvements in the agreement. I think Mexican unions have gained some leverage recently by appealing to the USMCA Rapid Response Mechanism.

[Furunculus]

Japan now describing China as a 'systemic challenge', aligning its diplomatic language with the UK mere hours before Japan/UK/Italy due to announce their Project Tempest collaboration to create a 6th Gen long range fighter jet.

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUaYNhzEq_E

[spmetla]

That's sad to see, tragic to indoctrinate hate into kids.

[1980s]

That's sad to see, tragic to indoctrinate hate into kids.



Agreed, looks like China's changing its tune now though.

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpXxwnma89A


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UI_I84D4ry8

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Omcc81bXIc


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y8IDzWru34


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkD5pha2ezM


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sXI4bHxTxo

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toQ5LdpLzPk


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwvaKL2SniQ

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpI9Il-3pNw


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuuYR8Yu5lg

[Furunculus]

had some second news of a VC meeting with a chap deep in US defence tech. the guy said he was looking for things that would be ready in 2027, anything after that was "too late".

then i saw this vid:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T72DfPEBn0A

does make you wonder if china feels boxed into resolving taiwan in the 2020's...?

p.s. "hi, lovely to be back. happy new year"

[Shaka_Khan]

So far, Japan, Iran, South Korea, Uzbekistan, Australia, and Jordan qualified for the 2026 World Cup.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BsX9lUqmeA

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiheNJjEC5o

Also on the news: South Korea's new president is silent on North Korea's Nuclear Wastewater Discharge Suspicion,
but it's not being mentioned on most of the news outlets yet.

EDIT: They're starting to report it:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcVGQxNXSEE

It was first talked about on the non-mainstream media channels such as this one:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svPNPcIv9As

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5pXPyw-pT8


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWyPQguK0R0