Boiling oil again.......

[Hakonarson]

Someone noted in the Boiling Oil thread that's now in the Table of Contents that at 3% hit the oil is just as lethal as peasants.

that poster didn't notice that the 3% is PER SECOND PER MAN in the hit zone - and the oil pours for 9 seconds.

Theoretically EACH man has a 24% chance of being hit if he's in that zone for all 9 seconds. So yuo'd normally expect about 1/4 casualties from the troops clutered around a gatehouse from EACH pouring of oil.

I use peasants and fanatics to attack gate houses now http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[Gregoshi]

Good point Hackonarson. I had a similar thought, but my brain was not up to calculating the hit percentage of 9 3%s per man (as you said). It sounds like a good deal of damage to me.

[Hakonarson]

lol - I had to think about it twice myself - but it's fairly simple - the chances of NOT being hit in any 1 second are 97%, or 0.97 (100%-3%, or 1-0.03).

So the chances of not being hit over 9 seconds are 0.97^9 (0.97 to the ninth power), or about 0.76, leaving 24% as the chance of getting hit at least once.

[Balamir]

Hey, hold on. There's something I didnt understand.

if the hit chance per sec per man is 3 percent, then when you multiply it with nine, shoulndt it be 27 percent?

3+3+3+3+3+3+3+3+3=27 http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/confused.gif

So which one of us is getting too old for this world?its either me or you http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif

Cheers

[Ryttare]

i think it should be 1,03^9, which is 30%

[Westland]

Hakonarson is right.
Ryttare, 1,03^9 is not 30% but 130%. The number of men is decreasing not increasing because of the oil.
Balamir, it's 24% because the number of men in the unit is decreasing after every second. Example with a unit of 100 men: 1st second, 3% of 100 die => 3 men => 97 left
2nd second, 3% of 97 die => 2,91 (on average)=> 94,09 left
etcetera.

[KukriKhan]

Kukri breaks out his trusty, dusty slide rule, and...

his eyes glaze over http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

So: boiling oil is a really, really bad thing; use cheap troops against it. Check. http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/wink.gif

[A.Saturnus]

Balamir , lets say you throw a dice. Your chance to throw one eye is 1/6 or 16,66%. If you throw the dice ten times, is your chance to get at least one time one eye then 166,6% ? http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

Take it easy, m8 http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/pat.gif

[The_Emperor]

Boiling oil is mainly for me a general/king killer... its very good in that respect.

Beware your 9 star generals are not safe http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[Mount Suribachi]

Its still not very good IMO. As it only has 5 shots it quickly runs out. Last night 60 Viking Huscarles assaulted my Castle. Going through 2 gates with boiling oil cost them only 32 casualties. Nowhere near enough Knocking down a gate by hand with boiling oil pouring from above should be enough to wipe a unit out. Who needs to bother with siege weapons when a few peasants can do the trick? This needs to be patched or (much more likely) modded.

[The_Emperor]

Boiling oil should have more shots (Unlimited?) to reflect the difficulty of smashing in a gatehouse...

Still what we have now is better than no oil at all

[Balamir]

Quote[/b] (A.Saturnus @ June 05 2003,08:57)]Balamir , lets say you throw a dice. Your chance to throw one eye is 1/6 or 16,66%. If you throw the dice ten times, is your chance to get at least one time one eye then 166,6% ? http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

Take it easy, m8 http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/pat.gif
http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif

Okay okay, was just an idea

*goes in to a shadowy place hoping to hide himself from the shame*

http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif