Incompetent Assasins

[Cardinal]

I always start building assasins early in the game, so at the later stages I have some high ranking ones. On my most recent Campaign (hard) I kept churning them out, and I must have built 10-12 in a 20 year periode. Then I use my fresh assains to kill Emisaries (83% chance of success) to build their valour. So far, so good, but the sad thing is that hardly anyone made it past the first assain attempt. The few who did died on their second or third. I always make sure my assins work "at home" to avoid any of the enemy border forts (though I build them in all my provices).

Now here comes the tricky bit. I lost 9 assains on a row on their first attempt, kill probability 83% ie chance of failure 17%. Now I might have spent my stats classes asleep, but the probability of this happening is 17%/9 = 1.89% http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/eek.gif

Am I just unlucky or what? [B]

[Executor]

Actually, I believe the chance that all 9 assassins would fail would be: 0.17^9, or 0.00001185%.

[o_loompah_the_delayer]

I suspect that you are having bad luck. As regards the probability stuff all attempted murders are independent event I think, so you cant do .17^9 - its been a while since I did stats though so I maybe bullshitting http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

Try:
http://www.totalwar.org/cgi-bin....ssasin% (http://www.totalwar.org/cgi-bin/forum/ikonboard.cgi?act=ST;f=15;t=4399;hl=%assasin%)

and

http://www.totalwar.org/cgi-bin....ssasin% (http://www.totalwar.org/cgi-bin/forum/ikonboard.cgi?act=ST;f=15;t=4144;hl=%assasin%)

[Razor1952]

The problem in VI is that BF catch most assasins b4 they get a chance to do their work.

So spending a lot of time training assasins by killing emissaries can easily be undone by them getting caught by BF's just when you need them to do something good.

Personally I devote 1 province to just building agents and their increased valour buildings.

I'll scout the target province first with a bishop or simlar to make sure there is no BF, or if there is accept that I will loose my good assasins in droves , still I guess if it as too easy.........
Taking this approach I can usually kill off a faction who doesn't have too many heirs or is too many stars. I will only send good (+3 or more) assasins after them , I think about 3-4 is optimal, more just get caught.


BTW some faction leaders have gained +6 valour against assinins, making them invulnerable to assination

Also bear in mind that Syria builds +1 valour assasins from the start.Very useful if you can get Syria.

Also remember using a good spy some faction leaders are very vunerable to loose influence and then civil wars will break out, thats even better fun than killing them outright.

[Cardinal]

http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/rolleyes.gif

Yes, you are both right It is 0.17^9. I was asleep in stats class.

So I was unlucky, but I still believe the stats are lying, for to loose 9 assasins on a row.... you have more chances winning the lottery.

Thanks for your comments and hints though.

[gaelic cowboy]

Are you sure the assassination was was attempted in your own province the ai moves agents around as a defence against assassins. If there had been a BF in the province it was attempted in he probally got caught that way

[Cardinal]

Yup

[Vanya]

GAH

Vanya once sent 10 -- TEN -- assassins to kill an enemy monarch in a neigboring province with a border fort (the upgraded one, not the base one).

Vanya expected to lose many.

ALL TEN FAILED http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif

Vanya went to check the bastard enemy king... he was JUST "Nervous" about attempts on his life http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/joker.gif

Problem is enemy units "know" when they are targetted, so if you have a port, they run off to where the border agents will nip your killer. And trying to lure them inland is rather ineffective.

Vanya thinks the "83% success" numbers are mere marketing folklore used to inspire suckers to sign up. Nothing but a cheap marketing gimmick. And every single assassin fell for it. As these folks are clearly a tad slow on the uptake, it is no wonder they constantly get taken for a ride.

GAH

[Revenant69]

LOL then train assassins in Syria. You can get valor 5 assassins off the bat (assuming you upgraded the tavern). Then you will have 95% chance http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[Cardinal]

Quote[/b] (Vanya @ Sep. 12 2003,17:45)]Vanya thinks the "83% success" numbers are mere marketing folklore used to inspire suckers to sign up. Nothing but a cheap marketing gimmick.
Yep, my thoughts exactly. It looks like something we just have to live with, BUT.... if there are assasins icnluded in RTW, please try and display some real statistics and sdipsence with the phony marketing. http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/mad.gif

[Inigo Montoya]

Whoo-Hooooo

Statistics

Something that I love (and have taught).

So I'll post once again - refuting all the reports of my demise.

Independent events - if each assassination can be considered an IE, then the chances of multiple attempts being unsuccessful is (CU)^n where CU is the chance of "unsuccess" (1-chance of success) on a single trial and n is the number of attempts. Independence means that each trial is not affected by the outcome of any of the preceding trials - so if you miss 20 times in a row, you're just as likely to miss on the 21st as on any of the previous 20.

However, I would imagine that repeated assassination attempts are, at least to some extent, dependent events. This is because a failed attempt can make the target aware of the fact that someone is trying to kill him. So repeated failed attempts would theoretically reduce the chance of suceess.

[Captain Fishpants]

A failed assassination does indeed make the target more likely to 'check those corners' and not sit with his back to an open door. http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[Daveybaby]

Hmmm... so, how long does the target stay cautious for? Just that one turn? Or several? Or forever?

I've always assumed (even going back to shogun days) that the 'chance of success' is only a 1-on-1 statistic, i.e. the assassin vs the target, and completely ignores 'local' effects like Border Forts and spies/counter-spies within the province where the assassination attempt takes place.

Thus if you want to perform assassinations with the the same chance of success that is stated you *have* to make sure that the attempt takes place in your own territory. The chances of meeting a defending BF or spy is just too great otherwise. How to make sure? One word : micromanagement.

(1) ONLY attack targets that are inside your territory. Ideally the turn immediately after the unit moves in (it will probably move out again the next turn).

(2) If the target moves out of your territory on the following turn, you must cancel the assasination mission immediately, or your assassin will attempt to follow the target, and will likely be killed at a BF.

(3) Sometimes your assassin will be successful, and will end up in the province that the target was attempting to move to. Move him back to your territory immediately.

(4) Match your assassins to their targets. Rookie assassins for zero valour emissaries (so that they have a greater chance of success and thus to improve their skill), High valour assassins for higher valour target (killing a higher valour target will result in a larger increase in valour at higher skill levels). But - never attack a non-critical target with a high valour assassin unless you have a good chance of success. Otherwise you will just waste the high level assassins that you have spent half the game training up.

Of course, using this approach makes it effectively impossible to take out military generals and kings, but you can eliminate religious units with ease, virtually eliminating relgious unrest within your empire. Also, you will be more likely to build up a large number of highly skilled assassins, so that if you *really* need to take out an enemy general in his own territory, you have a much greater chance of success, and a much greater chance that some of your assassins will survive the attempt.

[The_Emperor]

Quote[/b] (Revenant69 @ Sep. 13 2003,00:24)]LOL then train assassins in Syria. You can get valor 5 assassins off the bat (assuming you upgraded the tavern). Then you will have 95% chance http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif
I wonder if the valor would stack if Guy of Gisbourne was trained in Syria? Imagine that http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[Vanya]

GAH

Vanya knows what is going on here. The problem is actually very simple.

People you want to give a nice dirt bath to are often aristocrats and religious patriarchs. The pinnacle of society.

The assassins, on the other hand, are typicall ignorant fools recruited from a "tavern". They clearly are busy wasting their pathetic lives away with cheap booze and loose womens (not that there is anything wrong with that&#33http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/wink.gif. There is not a refined drop of blood or bile in these chaps

How can youz truly expect these bottom-dwellers to approach a snobby, well-groomed aristocrat? NO WAY They will spot the scum and element from a mile away

And to make matters WORSE... these serfs typically eat poor quality foods that yield high incidences of nuclear indigestion that often results in frequent release of toxic fumes into the atmosphere. Its like a giant odoriferous smoke signal telling all around "Hey I'm here". And when the air is saturated with moisture, the mixture of the sulfur-laden gases will create brown clouds that hang low over the cityscape and can shower the folks bellow with acid rain, thus making their presence visually identifiable as well

And these folks never bathe either So, their BO alone will spook any unfortunate souls that draw to within a 100 feet of them

It is thus no wonder that assassins are doomed to fail

What can you do about it? Not much, just hope the poor sap you gave the silver coins to is "lucky" enough to squeak by and do the deed. Just don't count on anything but your assassin getting some tete-a-tete time with Buddha...

GAH

[o_loompah_the_delayer]

Quote[/b] (Daveybaby @ Sep. 17 2003,05:59)]Hmmm... so, how long does the target stay cautious for? Just that one turn? Or several? Or forever?
They get a V&V i think its nervous +2 against assasins, but not sure.

Also with spies if the spy fails to find a vice, the target gets 'informants' V&V.