if the mongols...

[Lord_PH]

what would 2day be like IF the mongols' leader genghis khan did not die, and western europe was conquered: on its knees, begging for salvation, but the mongols spat at that and stormed every major city...what would the world turn out to be TODAY

i believe that it will be the EAST that conqueres the WEST, not vice versa that we have today.

your thoughts?

[71-hour Ahmed]

Nope. Mongols had no staying power - eventually they were assimilated in every location or destroyed. So Europe would get rid of them and rebuild, as would Islam (also damaged or conquered probably if all Europe fell). The new world would be left undiscovered for longer, possibly allowing a forward looking civ to develop there.

It gets really hard to guess beyond that though. India, arabia, europe and china would be on equal footing instead of christian civilisation finding the americas and freeing itself from its resource limits. So the situation would be very different worldwide. As for east conquering west, I think it would be more balanced and not one or the other, but a mix.


Plus I doubt the mongols had the ability to take western europe - castles and walled cities would deny them access, their forces out of Russia would lack staying power in the long run.

[Cebei]

I guess they could make it to Spain or England. But I agree that they would be assimilated.

[Lord_PH]

hmm...quite right, but the mongols did have chinese engineers to operate seiges...so they wouldn't have been stopped by walls...besides, they would just starve the defenders to death or surrender.

the assimiliation i agree on, but, what i was thinking is that since the mongols leave a path of destruction in its wake, and they did conquer germany, france, spain, italy and england, the great cities would fall and great architectual feats and recorded documents of advanced technology would be well...destroyed...or somehow they could have left them intact...

i came up with this idea when i was reading the synopsis of a book that described the East conquering and dominating over the West...the black plague, civil war, the mongols...etc.

[DojoRat]

Oh oh I smell an alternate reality novel.

Seriously, how was China changed by the Mongol conquest? How different would China be today if it had not occurred or failed? I dunno but it seems like a good place to start.

I doubt the Mongols would've wanted to occupy the west. Not enough loot to make traversing the mountains and forests worthwhile. I see a Khan based in Constantinople ravishing Italy and shattering the western princes in a battle somewhere in the south of France but after that collecting tribute for thew most part.

[Hakonarson]

Let's see - the European Renaissance didn't start until the 1400's - possibly due to Byzantine refuges from the Turkish Conquest.

Had the Mongols conquered much of eastern Europe before then perhaps such a renaissance might have started earlier?

Could the Mongols have marched as far as Western Europe? I think it's doubtful - the Golden Horde, for example, was never much of a threat to western Europe, or even msot of Eastern Europe, despite having mroe military resources than the original invaders.

Campaigns such as those vs the Mamlukes show the limits of Mongol power - they simply could not sustain large military forces a long way from their bases.

[Orda Khan]

With each fresh conquest you become more diluted.

As for the Golden Horde ( who were a mixture but predominantly Turkic )....allied to Egyptian Mamluks, at war with Ilkhanate....
The Ilkhanate....at war with Muslim nations of the middle east, Golden Horde and a watchful eye on Re-emergeance of Chagatai house.
China/Mongolia.....Civil war

Chinese seigecraft was improved with the addition of Muslim counter weight trebuchets...The Mongols were well equiped for seige warfare and were able to carry out such in very precarious terrain as they proved when they defeated both the Assassins and the Sung.

As for sustaining large forces away from a base...Which base? Karakorum? Sarai? Steppe warfare was not employed in southern China so perhaps the need for thousands of ponies throughout Europe may not have been so great.
As things stood, just two generations after Chingis Khan, the empire was already fragmenting. Had it been united, who knows? personally, I think it would be expecting quite a lot

........Orda

[Hakonarson]

Indeed Mongol armies made it as far as Burma - which is definitely notthe steppes

but I believe they did so on the back of a Chinese civilisation that could supply them, and as the Yuan dynasty of China, rather than as "pure" Mongols.

the ethnicity of the Golden horde is, IMO, irrelevant. Mongols absorbed all the other horse-peoples they conquered and incorporated them into their touman.

[Orda Khan]

Quote[/b] (Hakonarson @ Oct. 30 2003,23:52)]I believe they did so on the back of a Chinese civilisation that could supply them, and as the Yuan dynasty of China, rather than as "pure" Mongols.

the ethnicity of the Golden horde is, IMO, irrelevant. Mongols absorbed all the other horse-peoples they conquered and incorporated them into their touman.
On the contrary, it is indeed very relevant. Conquered peoples incorporated into the Toumens at the time of the so called 'Golden Horde' actually outnumbered their Mongol counterparts. Turkish replaced Mongolian on coins as early as 1280. It stands to reason then that there is no surprise at absorbtion. When Berke withdrew his Toumens from Hulegu's invasion force, a great deal of them actually returned to Mamluk territories as they were, to all intents, the same race.
Similarly, the Yuan Empire were Chinese as were the vast majority of its troops ( Korean also )

As a ruling power it is necessary to adopt some of that which you rule, can you imagine how great a task it would be to impose strict Mongol Custom over all the peoples they governed? It could be argued I suppose, that the Mongol tolerance of all religious belief may have helped speed up the process. I still think, realistically, it was just too big an area to turn 'Mongol' and internicine disputes went a long way towards alienating one Khanate from another

.....Orda

[Hakonarson]

Sorry - I don't see how this issue ofrace/ethnicity is relevant to whether the Mongols couldhave conquered the whole of Western Europe or not.

The other steppe nomads that were assimilated by the Mongols (in various guises) fought in the Mongol manner, used Mongol tactics and logistics, and were (perhaps surprisingly) quite loyal to the Mongols.

Militarily a Mongol army made up of Mongols and other steppe nomads was the same as a Mongol army of Mongols alone IMO.

[Orda Khan]

Quote[/b] (71-hour Ahmed @ Oct. 28 2003,18:23)]Nope. Mongols had no staying power - eventually they were assimilated in every location or destroyed.
.........Because it was in answer to this

....Orda

[Leet Eriksson]

well you 2 went completly off-topic,he said "WHAT IF",so we could go on and say WHAT IF the mongols took over europe and were intent to stay in it.what would happen?

[The_Emperor]

The Mongols could have gone further than they did if circumstances had not stopped their conquests. They had a great ability to adapt their tactics to the situation and environment.

Think about the variety of territory they had fought in, they had braved Russian Winters, The Heat of the Syrian Deserts, the Mountains of Afghanistan... and the Jungles of what is Modern Day Vietnam and Cambodia

Compared to those environments most of Western Europe would have been easy going for them

Of course the problem with the Mongols is that they became too settled and localised, and soon they were assimilated into the cultures of their respective territories, to the point where they were only interested in local loyalties and personal power rather than anything greater.

Had the Mongols gone further, they would have delayed history as it stands but their Empire would have no staying power.

[Pindar]

I don't believe the Mongols actually ever attempted a conquest of Europe. Eastern Europe's encounter with the Horde was an expedition in force rather than an actual attempt at conquest. Seven Toumans (70,000 men) the force that entered Europe, would not have been enough to subdue Western Europe. Even so, had the Mongols gathered sufficient numbers, say the 250,000 to 300,000 troops Hulegu mustered for the invasion of Persia and the Middle East, things may have been quite different.

But, the assumption is a successful conquest. It is impossible to guess the impact on a 21st Century Europe. I think one can guess on some more immediate effects however:

Military- Western Europe's proprietary style of warfare would have ended. Any successful response to an established Mongol Khanate would most probably have involved the development of a more meritorious military system, and with a sucessful repulsion, the establishment of a strong centralized state.

A strong centralized political system would have been required to harness the necessary force to drive the Horde into the East. My guess is that such a system would have used rheoric something akin to establishing a new "Holy" Roman Emperor.

The Italian city states: Venice, Genoa etc. would have ceased to function as the independant merchant cities they were. Flights to Med. based Islands would not have been able to sustain the same degree of merchant fleets given the loss of material resources and economic drain.

The Crusaders States would have collapsed much sooner given the Life line to Western Europe would have been cut.

It is possible that with a unifed Mongol super state (which seems to be the assumption) that Islam would have suffered attack from both Eastern and Western Theaters. Many Christians in Europe may have joined such a "holy war" under Mongol suzerainty.

Religous- The introduction of Nestorian Christianity to Europe. Any religious sect given political patronage typically grows in influence. There was a small but significant Nestorian presence within Mongol court life.

The Pope would lose an independant political/religious status. Catholic, Orthodox and Nestorian forms of Christianity would be unified under a single Political body. Given Mongol tendancies for religous tolerance it is conceivable that a new Ecumenical Council would have been called to resolve sectarian divisons. A new Christianity may have developed. It is also possible one of the three sects may have grown to a dominant position with Court favor.

Cultural - Western Europe would have seen the influx of large numbers of Turkic peoples. This mingling of ethnicities may have impacted Europe's cultural development. It is uncertain whether Europe would have been able to show the resiliance of China in surviving a Mongol regime intact.

The seeds of a European Renaissance had already taken root prior to the Mongols arrival as seen in the Sack of the Great Library of Toledo in 1086 and Saracen influence in Sicily and Southern Italy. Philosophical inquiry would have continued to rediscover Aristotle. In addition, depending on the degree of inter-Khanate cooperation, Western Europe would have had access to Eastern Trade and other influence to a hightened degree.

The real question is the lengh of time and degree of control a Mongol polity would have been able to hold Europe. It is arguable that to the degree Europe remained beholden to a single political body, (whether Mongol or not) to that same degree, the necessary element of interstate competition would have been supressed: and with it, the key element that ultimately led to Europe becoming distinct from the other great civilizations that stagnated under a single central authority

[The Wizard]

About the castle problem... look at the Mongols tearing apart intricate Chinese fortifications, Baghdad and Kiev... they most certainly had the ability. And it wouldn't be much of a problem to destroy European land armies, but in the mountains such as the Alps and Scottish Highlands I think they would get trouble. If they even got onto the British isles, Mongols were notoriously bad seafarers... also in Scandinavia they would probably fare as well as they did in Japan. http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/rolleyes.gif

[Pindar]

Quote[/b] ]also in Scandinavia they would probably fare as well as they did in Japan.

Outside of Denmark, it is unclear whether a European Khanate would have bothered with Scandinavia. It appears Mongol expansion focused on areas of potential political rivalry and economic centers. Scandinavia's golden era had past and aside from simple argession from the North, It is possible the Horde may have ignored the land of the fjords save for perhaps some symbolic demand for tribute.

England would most probably have suffered a different fate. England would have been drawn into conflict with any Western Mongol push across the Rhine by attempting to maintain their French holdings. This would have brought the Horde across the Channel to extinguish the impertinence.

[spmetla]

It would have allowed an opportunity to put that stupid british longbow vs. mongol composite bow argument to rest though.

[Orda Khan]

Quote[/b] (Pindar @ Nov. 03 2003,06:15)]I don't believe the Mongols actually ever attempted a conquest of Europe. Eastern Europe's encounter with the Horde was an expedition in force rather than an actual attempt at conquest. Seven Toumans (70,000 men) the force that entered Europe, would not have been enough to subdue Western Europe. Even so, had the Mongols gathered sufficient numbers, say the 250,000 to 300,000 troops Hulegu mustered for the invasion of Persia and the Middle East, things may have been quite different.
The army under Hulegu was very large and powerful.......it contained Toumens from both China and the Golden Horde. Eastern Europe/Europe was to a large degree spared due to the fact that newly trained men from Golden Horde territories were sent to Hulegu. The onset of Civil War and the consequences, ie internicine strife did the rest

...Orda

[Pindar]

Quote[/b] ]The army under Hulegu was very large and powerful.......it contained Toumens from both China and the Golden Horde. Eastern Europe/Europe was to a large degree spared due to the fact that newly trained men from Golden Horde territories were sent to Hulegu. The onset of Civil War and the consequences, ie internicine strife did the rest


Hulegu's forces did recieve contingents from other Khanates. However, the initial drive into Eastern Europe by Batu's forces was Twenty years earlier. The interim period between the Mongols push into Eastern Europe and Hulegu's attack on the Muslim Middle East seem to indicate Batu was more interested in inter-court politics in the East, rather than any renewed attack on the princelings of Western Europe. Had Batu desired to reoccupy the Hungarian plain or push farther West, he had ample opporutnity to do so.

[Orda Khan]

Batu had no option but to consolidate his position. With Ogedei dead there followed four years of political wrangling before Guyuk was elected Khan. Not a time to be off campaigning in Europe. Two years later and Guyuk died.....while on his way to meet Batu, either to accept his submission, or more likely in an attempt to put down his old rival. This was probably a time when Batu was making plans regarding a defensive stance against the Khan. Guyuk died en route and there followed a supression of the heirs of Ogedei and Chagatai, carried out by Batu and his nominee for Khan, Mangku. Mangku was elected Khan in 1251. By 1255 Batu was dead........
There was too much uncertainty for a serious full campaign against the rest of Europe. As I said before, I think it was always going to be just out of reach even if the Empire was united

.......Orda

[Pindar]

I agree that the political situation after Ogedei's death was such that any further drive into Europe, while logistically possible, would have been ill advised from Batu's position.

[Galestrum]

the answer to the what if question is.....whatever you want it to be http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/tongue.gif

to actually "make-up" the answer would require you to rewrite the entire history of the world - thus with so many lands, peoples and time etc you could come up with any number of viable outcomes.

I think the only reasonable things you can do is ask i specific "what if" and hypothesize the direct adn indirect effects that would have occurred as a result of the event for a relatively small period of time http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/dizzy.gif if that makes sense

What if - the turks lost Manzikert?
What if - the fourth crusade had been repulsed?
What if - Richard had stayed longer in the third crusade and fought on past the time Saladin died (he died shortly after richard left)
What if - The byzantines annihilated the 7th century islamic invasions when islam was in its birth?
What if - Harold defeated william at hastings?

with a question like this you can prby make some reasonable assumptions about what would have directly happened for the next 20 years or so - but anything long term is just too much like science fiction http://www.totalwar.org/forum/non-cgi/emoticons/shock.gif

[gaelic cowboy]

A mongol invasion would have just resultd in assimilation of them into european culture most likely conversion to the catholic religion creating three mongol groups the one absorbed by islam and the other by christainity and the one absorbed into china. Possibly the ethnic groups at the far periphery ie the celtic nordic groups would have used to collapse to expand but probally england would gain most as it was an island with the ability to call on fierce warriors in it's own backyard who fought for pay anywhere anyplace anytime Gallowglasses anyone. By the way why are the not buildable in scotland orat least the isles isnt that where they came from.