Nagashino-An Oda victory without the Arquebuisers?

[NagatsukaShumi]

There is the question guys, would Oda Nogunaga have conceived a victory against Takeda Shigen at the battle of Nagashino without the 3000 or so Arquebusiers? For those that have no clue what Nagashino was, it was a battle between the Takeda and the Oda in which the famous Takeda Cavalry was slaughtered by the many guns used by the Oda. That is just a breif overview of the happening within this huge battle, which made a turning point in Japanese warfare.

Since this battle, the way of the Samurai slowly disappeared as the guns were brought in. However, for the Daimyo, the loss of the way of life was of little importance now they had the key to gaining the title of shogun for their own. After the slaughter at Nagashino the nation woke up and realised, guns were the way, and infact, the way to expand their armies. What many overlook is the fact, Ashigaru's were commonly used, but poorly trained, because obviously, real skill needed to be learned over time, were as they were just poorly skilled and used the weapons to the best of their knowledge. Guns were, however, powerful but easy to use weapons, which meant Ashigaru became much more vital to their campaign as now they neeeded their people more than ever, to use these awesome weapons, and use them over a vast amount of troops.

But back to Nagashino. What if Oda had no guns, would he have been able to stand against the might of a Takeda Cavalry charge? Or would he have met his end? It is interesting to think how exactally the war would have turned out if Oda had not the gun power he did. Now it's time for you to discuss you views, would they have still become victorious? Or would Japan have no Oda shogunate?

[Vanya]

He could have won... with 3000 super Ashigaru instead of guns... Horse-kabob anyone?

[Wavesword]

I don't think it was THE Shingen , or it wasn't in that film Kagemusha. I remember the Oda general sipping wine and commenting "ah the wine, it is red like blood. Shoot the horses!" I suppose it could have been possible with Crossbows (which don't require remarkable skill either), they were charging across a swamp after all! The terrain was quite as important, as was the discipline instilled in order to utilise guns properly, in a constant stream rather than all firing in a disorganised fashion. I think cannon were quite as important in reducing the importance of the (non-paper!) castles, but the importance of guns is clearly shown in the samuri's desire to get rid of them once they realised the peasants could use them against samuri- a la the Pope outlawing the use of crossbow because it could hurt an armoured knight. Ah, chivalry where did you go?

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"On a rock hill you must take an earthy site; on an earth hill, a rocky site. Where it is confined take an open place, where it is open, take a confined space. On a prominence take the flat; where it is flat take the prominent. Where strong comes, take weak; where weak comes, take strong. Where there are many hills, take water; where there is much water, take hills.."

Extract from a Chinese feng shui manual

[BSM_Skkzarg]

Could he have won? Depends - are we giving him replacements for these teppo he loses? Is he allotted a balance of spear and ranged combatants? Or is this a hypothetical poof! 3k men are gone can he still pull off a victory?

If your question gives him a balance of forces in return, then with some luck and some excellent use of terrain then MAYBE he can win, but its doubtful....

On the other hand, if your just yanking 3k men out from his army, with not substitution - the answer is no.

Recall, without the teppo, there was little to stop the cavalry from doing what it does best, tearing into and through infantry. Oda did not have enough spears to hold his flanks and center, he needed the guns to even the score. Without them, or a serious manpower boost in anti-cav troops - Oda would be in a serious bad way.

Q!

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BSM_Skkzarg
"ARG when I'm Happy, ARG when I'm Sad, ARG when I'm good or bad. ARG!"
"ARG to port! ARG to starboard! Arg from stem to stern! ARG!"

[Krasturak]

Krast happens to have this reference here:

"They have not more than 500 matchlock-men, and if you reckon on them all hitting at the first volley, and also at the second, for after that men shoot wildly, we shall not lose more than a thousand killed and wounded, and that is nothing much."

Gen. Atobe Oinosuke's advice to his lord, Takeda Katsuyori, before the battle of Nagashino, 1575.

But Tokugawa Ieyasu and Oda Nobunaga had together 10,000 arquibusiers, not 500.
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Drawn from G. DYER, WAR, 1985, p 56-7.
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So the more interesting question might be ... what if the Takeda did know about and plan properly for the enemy guns? What then?

[Nelson]

This topic is touched on here:

http://www.angelfire.com/realm/kitsuno01/katsuyori.html

Note the BY LINE at the bottom also. Well known dojo vet FWSeal.

[oZoNeLaYeR]

Oda and Tokugawa were coward...(but they're smart) =D just a thought... Katsuyori was kinda dumb dumb too... oh well everything had happened...

[This message has been edited by oZoNeLaYeR (edited 04-16-2002).]

[Vanya]

A common misperception of this battle is that there were holes in the palisade where spear troops could sally forth to engage Takeda.

In reality, it was arquebusiers in wedgie formation that sallied forth to sweep the field of the Takeda cavalry... not 'spear samurais'...

Lets not forget that.

[TheLastEuropean]

From what I have read, it was not the prescence of Oda's guns that were the single decisive factor - the ground was broken plus there was rainfall previous to the start of the battle. Both these factors make it extremely difficult for cavalry to operate effectively.

[shingenmitch2]

It was not Takeda Shingen... it was Takeda Katsuyori his heir... Shingen had already died by stray musket fire years earlier.

See the Deadly Shingen site "clan section" for full details of this and any other history of the Takeda at
http://www.rit.edu/~mlc8826

[This message has been edited by shingenmitch2 (edited 04-17-2002).]