Central Powers Victory

[Stefan the Berserker]

I posted a similar thread some time ago, but my Information has after more reasearch prooven to be mostly false.

States Involved ->

Central Powers:

- Germany
- Austria-Hungary
- Ottoman Empire
- Bulgaria

Starting Entente:

- Britain
- France
- Russia
- Belgium

Later Joiners of Entente:

- Japan**
- USA***
- Italy*
- Spain
- Greece
- Romania

Possible Joiners of the Central Powers:

- Italy*
- Persia
- Japan**
- Arabic Nationalists in Algeria, Tunesia and Morroco

* Italy was part of Bismarck's Triple Alliance but broke it by declaring neutrality in 1914 and totally spoof it by joining the Entente in 1915.

** Japan claimed the City Tsingtao of Germany in WW1 and did only join the War to expand, not because of interesst in European Affairs. In Case the Central Powers would have been more attractive by beeing 'stronger' they could also try to feed their expansion wishes from British and French property (what they tried in WW2).

*** USA joined Entente only with the german navy sinking an american civilian vessel, which caused that they felt provoked. No Provokation, no USA.

Any Information on that topic is recommed.

Warresult and Wargoals depend strongly on the conditions how they were made, by major Victory or Diplomacy.

The most realistical Scenario for a Victory of the Central Powers is the Goodluck-Italy-NoUSA-Diplomatic Variant:

1. Italy keeps the Alliance and joins the War
-> French forces tied in Savoy and Grenobile
-> Italian, Austrian and Ottoman Navy blockade the Mediterrainian Sea
-> More Austrian Forces free
2. Schlieffenplan succseeds
-> Through French Forces tied in the South, the Germans take Paris
-> Russian Mobilisation not completed
3. France surrenders
-> British evacuate from the Continent, Victory on the Western Front
4. Eastern Front & North Africa
-> Almost complete German Army and complete Austrian Army advance
-> Bulgaria joins
-> Serbia collapses
-> Russians take certain defeats
-> Italians from Lybia and the Ottomans treat Egypt
5. Britain and Russia ask for Peace
-> Peacetreaty signed

Resulting mild Conditions for Britain, horrible for France and average for Russia.

Possible Changes after historical Wargoals + Expected for Italy:

Germany

-> Annex Belgium
-> Annex the Top Banana Colonies of France
-> Urgently want Morocco and Gibraltar
-> 'Liberate' Finnland, the Baltikum, Poland and the Ukraine

Austria-Hungary

-> Annex Serbia
-> Annex Lesser Important Colonies of France (what Germany dislikes, possibly Algeria)
-> Recive the Belgian Colonies from Germany
-> Release Krakow, Galicia and Lodomeria to Poland and Ukraine
-> Internal Reforms to Federalise after Franz-Ferdinands Plans

Ottoman Empire

-> Urgently wanting Egypt, but maybe fail because of no support by Germany
-> Annexing the minor states of the Arab Peninsula
-> Establish a Monopoly on Oildrilling for a Sultan-owned Company

Italy

-> Annex Savoy
-> Urgently wanting Tunesia, maybe also getting Algeria

Bulgaria

-> Degrade Serbia, support Austria's Claims on it
-> Annex the Regions Pristina and Nis (Macedonia) from Serbia

Britain

-> Germany would try to force that Dominions become fully independant
-> Germany would also attempt to force an Irish Free-State
-> Prior two thing would certailnly fail because of the Diplomatic Warend

France

-> Beeing the great looser because the Central Powers occupied it

[discovery1]

> Release Krakow, Galicia and Lodomeria to Poland and Ukraine

I find this extremely unlikely. Seems like it would stir up nationalist sentiment across the empire.


> Urgently wanting Egypt, but maybe fail because of no support by Germany

Why wouldn't germany support this? It puts the suez canal inthe power of Germany's friends.

And Germany would probably take indochina, although Japan just might grab it.

I would argue that the best chace for German victory would be staying on the defensive in the west while turning russia to pulp. Let the frogs beat themselves against the fortified, and rather short, border. After Russia is beaten, and France exhausted, Germany comes smashing into France. GB doesn't have a reason to go to war if Belgium isn't threatend. Thus germany avoids a blockaid. Also I don't think Japan gets involved since they were allied to GB. If GB doesn't enter the war, neither does Japan.

If gb enters the war, then even a quick win in the west won't save the allies(not entente). GB ets up a blockaid, sends expiditionary forces to russia and waits. The turks would probably crumble under the lion's full strength.

[nokhor]

one of the odd things of WWI was that the central powers won a total victory on the east front and then suffered a total defeat in the west.

[Stefan the Berserker]

Why wouldn't germany support this? It puts the suez canal in the power of Germany's friends.

The Ottomans were not Germany's 'Friends', the Ottomans just allied with Germany for savety. In WW1 they used that Alliance by believing Germany would win and they could make conquests.

Germany would have gave a s_hit on the Ottomans claims if it would have blocked peace with Britain, and the British would have really wanted to keep the Suez Chanal.

If Britain would have released Egypt to the Ottomans, Germany of course wouldn't mind. However, that would have re-created most of the Ottomans old strength. As already mentioned the gouvermental Monopoly on Oildrilling in whole Arabia, the far more larger Population and control of the Suezchannel would have boosted their power.



I find this extremely unlikely. Seems like it would stir up nationalist sentiment across the empire.


Maybe, but the reason to do it was the Wall of Muppetstates to be risen against Russia. With the creation of Independant Poland and Ukraine just from Russian Parts, the Austrian half would have very strong national unrest.

Remember that Austria may annex Serbia and colonial areas, which compense the lost Territory in a way its a very good exchange.

[BalkanTourist]

Bulgaria joined the Central Powers because they promised her the region of Macedonia which was unjustly grabbed by the Greeks and the Serbs. The Balkan wars were closely related to WW1. In the first Balkan war an alliance was formed: Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece and Montenegro (Romania stayed out of it) vs. The Ottoman Empire. Bulgaria carried the haviest toll since it battled the Empire's best armies on the Eastern front. Bulgaria entered that war with one goal: to liberate South and East Thrace and Macedonia, which had mostly Bulgarian population. The "allies" battled irregulars and pockets of regular Turkish forces that were isolated from the main Turkish army deep to the west in Macedonia. Bulgaria foolishly sent only one detachment trusting that after the war the borders would be drawn according to the ethnicity of the population. Second mistake was not accepting the cease fire offer from the Turks after capturing Odrin (Edirne). Bulgarian politicians got greedy after the smashing success of the Army against the hugely favorite Turks with their German trained army and supperior artilery, they wanted now Istanbul. The Rila regiment achieved success as well on the Western Front but failed short of capturing Solun (Thesalonika). When the Bulgarian army came, the local Turkish official ordered the garrison to defend the city, so the Bulgarians started their artillery attack which lasted several days. The Greek army came from the south and the Turks surrendered to them. Macedonia was devided mostly between Serbia and Greece. Bulgaria did gain Thrace, but the Bulgarian people felt betrayed by the "Allies" and the Macedon Problem was not resolved. It was now worse, since the Greeks and the Serbs started ethnic cleansing so that Bulgaria could not have claims. Many fled to Bulgaria causing huge problems and tensions because there was not enough to support so many immigrants. In that situation, considering the huge success of the Bulgarian millitary power, the Kniaz ordered an attack on Serbian and Greek positions in Macedonia. The Second Balkan war was the First National Catastrophy for the new Bulgarian state. Turkey joined from the east and finally Romania from the north. Bulgaria was surrounded and defeated. Remembering that and looking for a revenge they entered on the side of the Germans and the Austrians and against the Serbs and the treacherous Romanians. Both Romania and Serbia were defeated only a couple of years later in WW1. Greece was only saved by the intervention of Britain and France. The Ottomans were allies now so that freed the army protecting that border. Bulgaria lost the war without losing a single battle. After that was the Second National Catastrophy. Bulgaria lost the rest of Macedonia and many people lost their lives in vain.

[discovery1]

If Britain would have released Egypt to the Ottomans, Germany of course wouldn't mind. However, that would have re-created most of the Ottomans old strength. As already mentioned the gouvermental Monopoly on Oildrilling in whole Arabia, the far more larger Population and control of the Suezchannel would have boosted their power.

And why is this counter to Germany's interest(not that you said it did)? It would seem to be greatly in Germany's interest to have a strong ally that controls large oil stockpiles. That way Germany doesn't need to worry about sending exp forces to keep its oil safe, and with Bulgaria and AH on their side they have a secure overland route.


Also, I don't think that the Turks had control over the Arabian penensula, aside from some strips along the coasts. They did control Iraq and in the event of a victory would likely have taken Armenia and Azerbijan from the Russians. If Gb enters the war and the Allies win(unlikely imo) then the Turks get Kuwait, Egypt, and like have more influence in Persia, GBs main source of oil at the time.


Maybe, but the reason to do it was the Wall of Muppetstates to be risen against Russia. With the creation of Independant Poland and Ukraine just from Russian Parts, the Austrian half would have very strong national unrest.

Maybe, but why won't this be in the more distant future(at least 10 years away)? It seems likely that in the near term the Poles and Ukranians will likely be too distracted by the independence parties to worry about giving Germany or AH the title of head oppressor of the Poles(formerly held by the Russians). Besides, even of nationalist sentiment flairs up in Polish areas, wouln't it be easier to just garrison those areas than the entire empire?



Remember that Austria may annex Serbia and colonial areas, which compense the lost Territory in a way its a very good exchange.

Colonial areas? Why would AH want overseas colonies? Their hands are full as it is. They probably wouldn't want the addition burden of paying of overseas colonies. Germany would likely take the most profitable colonies. After all, they would do most of the fighting against France. Italy had colonies, but they weren't exactly prime realistate.

[Petrus]

A victory of the central powers was very possible.

The main condition to this was to forget the schlieffen plan and it's absurd consideration about the supposed inability of Germany to fight on two fronts and the necessity of the invasion of belgium, the cassus belli that permited England to shift from friendly neutrality to active allied of France.

This plan was Germany's doom in WWI, causing this country to choose the worst possible solution to benefit from a short-term and very relative advantage.

[discovery1]

I don't think it doomed the Allies, at least not in the way it was initially concieved. What killed it was von Molke's weakening of the right wing, which is where the decision was made, to strengthen the border defenses and the Prussian salient. While any move through Belgium would have brought GB into the war, does it mattter if France is crumbling?

[ShadesPanther]

and Russia mobilised quicker than expected so they were able to invade sooner than they thought (after victory in west)

[discovery1]

And? The German armies in the east were enough to defeat the Russian in real life. And I'm fairly certain that most of the forces taken from the right wing went to defend the French-German border, not Prussia, at least not before the war started. And even if the the Russians do overcome the defenders of Prussia, I don't think that Germany will sue for peace with the Fall of Paris a near certainty. Perhaps even the fall of Berlin would not be enough. After all, with the defeat of France, large numbers of German troops will be sent east to beat back the bear.

[metatron]

The United States didn't enter the war because of the German naval strategy, we entered because of the Zimmerman telegram, which basically told Mexico if they joined the Central Powers, Germany would support the annexation of the Southwest for Mexico.

[Petrus]

>discovery1 wrote :
>I don't think it doomed the Allies, at least not in the way it was initially concieved. >What killed it was von Molke's weakening of the right wing, which is where the >decision was made, to strengthen the border defenses and the Prussian salient. >While any move through Belgium would have brought GB into the war, does it mattter >if France is crumbling?


Yes, but the conditions for this plan to work properly where extreme and their combinaison was almost hazardous.

The plan failed mainly due to the fact that the kraut's left wing did not play it's role, wich was to attract and block as many french forces as possible to permit to the right wind to go far to the south while the french army was occupied in the north east.

This did not work, first because the french army was able to engage and maintain a retreat of several weeks but also because it supposed what could be interpreted as a defeat of the left wing.

In very short and limited terms :

On a map during a kriegspiel between high headquarters officers, this does not pose any problem.

During a war into wich the whole country is engaged, this is extremely important.

The plan was not stupid by itself, but the circonstances of a war made of it's application a great danger in case of failure and there was many reasons of failure.

Moreover, it was the result of twenty years of work of the german high command and as such it was the only strategy that was usable in 1914, watever the political and diplomatical circonstances.

I think that this is the main reason for wich it was germany's doom, causing this empire to act in a way that was not adapted to the circonstances and that closed many options into this conflict for germany.

War is the continuation of politics by other means, in the case of germany, war has been the confiscation of all politics by the military headquarters and ths schlieffen plan was the first act of this confiscation.

[Stefan the Berserker]

As for my Way to fight the War, limited through I wouldn't have gone to War as I was the Emperor, I would have fully concentrated on Russia.

The Conflict with France ment trenching, through Germany had Fortifactions in Alsace-Lorraine equal to those in Verdun. So I had ordered the West to dig-in and hold the Border, knowing France doesn't have the Power to break through very deep exept by extensive usage of Manpower.

The War on Russia from my Role would be in Propaganda made a "War for Liberty" with exessive usage of Radioprogrammes and Flyers to make the Minorities upset against the Tzar. I would have started an conjoined offense with 3/4 of the German Army and full Austro-Hungarian Force with the Goal to reach Warsaw as early as possible.

In Warsaw I had started the Polish Muppet State during the War, with making the King of Saxony in Personal Union King of Poland (The Russian Part of Poland) and inscenating the Free Poland declares War on Russia. Together with that "proof of my good ambition" and many more Propaganda Pics of 'free' Polish weaving Flags it would have fully put the Nationalist movements inside the Empire on my Side. Also it had negative impact on the Panslavic Movement.

A very important part of this Propaganda had been the Polish "Volunteer Legion" fighting on the Front, prepared with German Actors wearing Polish Uniforms for Cinemas in Germany and of Course for the Polish. The presented Jingoism-Horraypatriotism, Liberated People fight evil Russians, would heavly boost the Effect I hope for.

Also, pics of Ukrainians giving Flowers to German Soldiers is nice to show the Worldpublic who is the 'Goodguy'. ~:)

After Russia is defeated, France would have had to accept its defeat.

Of Course, my Stategy is dangerous for Austria-Hungary. But if it is part of this "War for Indepandance" victoriously and passes some liberal reforms after the War this might be the necessary Horray-Event to hold the POP's together which Austria was missing.

[discovery1]

@ Beserker:
ALL of AH's troops attacking Russia? Don't they at least need enough to keep Serbia contained? Otherwise, you're probably right.

@Petrus
BUt if the German's don't have as many troops on the border with France, then the circumstances change, perhaps in such a way that victory is possible for Germany, at least against France.

[Watchman]

Let's keep in mind that when the whole crap started, nobody had *any* clue of what was coming. Everyone expected the war to be one of quick maneuver, breakthrough and encirclement, and soon over - "home by Christmas", as it were.

There's a lot of perfectly sensible reasons as to why the military planners were so off-key, but the blunt fact is that none of them actually appreciated the sheer impassability of the linear trench defense and every army was woefully under-equipped for it. In 1914 nobody simply could fathom the West Front bogging down like it did, and it took altogether too long a time (and *way* too many lives) for the tactics and strategy to adapt to it.

As for the Schlieffen Plan, it had the minor problem of being over-engineered and a little on the optimistic side. It didn't account for the logistical difficulties of marching entire armies of conscripts of varying fitness to the front, the inevitable traffic jams this led into, or the minor detail the French and the Brits didn't entirely move as they were supposed to.

You ask me, victory by attrition in the West would've gone to the army who realized the general futility of attacking the opposing trench line and concentrated on merely defending its own. Would've saved a lot of troops and other resources to be spent elsewhere. None of them did, though.

[Stefan the Berserker]

Am main Mistake all Nations was that hey didn't realise the potential of motorised advance and mechanic Warfare.

The Schielffenplan could have militaryically worked if Germany had realised its advantage of having the largest and most developed Carproduction.

Useing motorised Infantry Devisions with armored Cars and Trucks would have been very well, but only realistically if they had been risen Pre-War.

Back to me beeing Emperor, I would in this Timeframe have no clue that this could be this way. Through born before Automobiles were invented at all, how should I or anybody else come to the Idea...

However, the Schlieffenplan was stupid.

---------

Okay, some Austrians had to fight Serbia. But that's not really a problem for a common massive Invasion of the Tzardom.

Hmmm... But if the Central Powers had their Trucks and armored Cars developed Pre-War and used my Strategy together with motorised advance...

I doubt Russia could counter it at all.

[Watchman]

No, it wasn't stupid. The basic idea was pretty sound. The problem, as usual, came in the practical execution, and in the way the commanders stuck to it too closely at some places and too loosely at others. Well, German communications and intel were as limited as everyone elses'...

Given that old man Schlieffen had drawn up his plan for an entirely different kind of war than was eventually fought, the thing actually worked surprisingly well. Of course, the French had their own set of "kunnin' planz" too and those (although not well known) actually worked pretty decently too, as did the Brits.

But one thing everyone fell equally foul of was the fact that all those grand strategies and field tactics and training and mentality and pretty much everything else down to the bloody uniforms (à la the crimson-and-blue French field uniform or the Germans' shiny pickelhaube leather helmet) was designed for the previous major European war - which had been over forty years earlier. If there's ever been a war that was fought with "the weapons of the next war and the tactics of the previous", as the proverb puts it, it was the Great War.