Saddam's 'dirty bomb'

[Adrian II]

In the Sheehan thread there seems to be some confusion about Iraq's possession of yellow cake after 1991 as part of some sort of ongoing nuclear program. As evidence of this, members refer to the Duelfer report. However, the very first key finding (http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2004/isg-final-report/isg-final-report_vol2_nuclear_key-findings.htm) with regard to Iraq's nuclear program is this:


Saddam Husayn ended the nuclear program in 1991 following the Gulf war. ISG found no evidence to suggest concerted efforts to restart the program
Members can find more details in that chapter.


On the whole, the findings of Duelfer c.s. are a far cry from what the U.S. administration led us to believe. There is no way around that. Here is a passage from the September 2002 Senate testimony (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/congress/2002_hr/rumsfeld919.pdf) by Donald Rumsfeld:


His regime has an active program to acquire and develop nuclear weapons.
They have the knowledge of how to produce nuclear weapons, and
designs for at least two different nuclear devices.
They have a team of scientists, technicians and engineers in place, as
well as the infrastructure needed to build a weapon.
Very likely all they need to complete a weapon is fissile material—and
they are, at this moment, seeking that material—both from foreign
sources and the capability to produce it indigenously.
Those who would like summary of the main issues can find it in this Carnegie Endowment file (http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/Iraq3Table3.pdf) that lists all the significant yay’s and nay’s.


I believe the confusion about the yellow cake has arisen because U.S. bloggers have been blowing post-invasion reports out of all proportion in their desperate need to justify the invasion. Instead of taking Gawain’s and Redleg’s Yellow Cake Road, let us take a look at what the Duelfer report really says.

The Duelfer report’s paragraph on Iraq’s uranium holdings (http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2004/isg-final-report/isg-final-report_vol2_nuclear-03.htm) says that


‘during the 1970s and early 1980s, Iraq bought uranium in various forms from the international market. These materials included about 486 tons of yellowcake, 33,470 kg of “natural” uranium dioxide, 1,767 kg of “low-enriched” uranium dioxide (2.6 percent 235U), and 6,005 kg of “depleted” uranium dioxide from Portugal, Italy, Niger, and Brazil.’
Some of this material was converted by Iraq into highly enriched uranium (HEU) that could be used to make a weapon. This HEU was taken care of (http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Booklets/Iraq/event.html) in 1991 by the IAEA:


November 15, 1991. The first removal of highly enriched uranium from Iraq in compliance with resolution 687 took place. A UN cargo flight loaded with 42 fresh fuel elements from the IRT-5000 research reactor a Al Tuwaitha, containing a total of 6.6 kilograms of uranium-235. Baghdad for Moscow. An IAEA team supervised the shipment.
The airlift of the remaining quantities of non-irradiated highly enriched uranium was completed 17 November 1991. These materials had been under IAEA safeguards from the time they were imported by Iraq. The operation was arranged through a contract between the Ministry of Atomic Power and Industry of the former USSR and the IAEA. The highly enriched uranium will be processed at a facility in the former USSR and placed under IAEA custody after isotopic dilution.

The yellow cake and other materials mentioned have all been secured, sealed, destroyed, removed or rendered harmless during IAEA inspections btween 1991 and 1995. You can find the IAEA reports to the Security Council here (http://www.iaea.org/OurWork/SV/Invo/statements.html#semiannual) under the heading of ‘Reports to the Security Council on the implementation by the IAEA of the plan for the destruction, removal and rendering of harmless of items’.


The presence and nature of these materials was known as of 1991 and in some cases 1995 and stocks had been analysed and sealed. Any illicit use (for instance for terrorist purposes) would have been registered and traced to the Iraqi source.

As for the ‘dirty bomb scare’, just take a look at what the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/dirty-bombs.html) has to say about it:


Basically, the principal type of dirty bomb, or Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD), combines a conventional explosive, such as dynamite, with radioactive material. In most instances, the conventional explosive itself would have more immediate lethality than the radioactive material. At the levels created by most probable sources, not enough radiation would be present in a dirty bomb to kill people or cause severe illness. For example, most radioactive material employed in hospitals for diagnosis or treatment of cancer is sufficiently benign that about 100,000 patients a day are released with this material in their bodies.
However, certain other radioactive materials, dispersed in the air, could contaminate up to several city blocks, creating fear and possibly panic and requiring potentially costly cleanup. Prompt, accurate, non-emotional public information might prevent the panic sought by terrorists. A dirty bomb is in no way similar to a nuclear weapon. The presumed purpose of its use would be therefore not as a Weapon of Mass Destruction but rather as a Weapon of Mass Disruption.

[Aenlic]

Agreed. And I was thinking about it last night, in regards to using yellowcake or depleted uranium for dirty bomb material. It still wouldn't work. Uranium has a very low burn temperature, about 600ºF. This would make it entirely unsuitable for a dirty bomb because it would burn in the explosion rather than disperse as a powder. Dispersal of poisonous and radoiactive material is what makes a dirty bomb dangerous.

Plutonium is more likely for a dirty bomb because it is much more toxic than uranium. Just a small amount of plutonium, just one grain as an airborne particulate, can cause cancer. It is also much more radioactive than uranium and doesn't pass through the body as easily, being absorbed more readily into tissue.

If the point, or rather the raison d'jour, to justify the invasion/war in Iraq has become the presence of yellowcake as a possible dirty bomb making material, then we should immediately pack up and leave and invade the former Soviet "-stans" such as Kazakstan, and Arzamas east of Moscow; because that is where we'll find the world's largest quantities of poorly guarded and even unguarded and potentially terrorist-useful plutonium, enriched and unenriched. Another source of enriched plutonium would be the Yongbyon plutonium enrichment facility in North Korea.

So mount up, troops! It's time to bug out and head north and east; because that's where the real danger is! ~D

[Redleg]

Nice little reporting work there Adrian - however its taking my statement out of context - and here is what the Dueffler Report states - in the context I used it regarding the Nuclear Material and the Saddam Regimes deception.

Here is what I actually stated - so to avoid confusion


That arguement however does leave out the use of yellowcake uranium in the "dirty" bomb mode. The mere presence of yellowcake uranium in Iraq could be considered a violation of the United Nations Resolutions and a violation of the ceasefire agreements unless the documentation is shown that it was for a nuclear power plant for energy purposes

I realize that yellow cake uranium is not an effective Dirty Bomb - but it does posion the environment - and it will cause problems if used in a device.
As illustrated with this statement in that same paragraph


If you don't think Yellowcake Uranium wont kill you - your sadly mistaken - the openpit miners of Uranium from the 1940's and 1950's suffered a high rate of cancer based upon the radiation and breathing of Uranium laden dust. (I know this one from experience since my Grandfather - for a time was one of this open pit miners.)

and this one a little father down in the discussion


Yep the amount of damage done is slow - but still deadly in the long run. It took 15- 20 years for the cancer to be noticable in both my Grandparents. Most of it because the technology had to improve to detect the cancers in both - since it attacked their livers.


Now that the context of my statements are shown - lets get to discussing the issue about the Duefler Report - which if you read the same post you will find this statement by me.


What the Dueffler Report points out is that Iraq attempted to hide data and to provide an illusion. Some of that data - does indeed point a critical finger at the failure of the Weapons Inspection Program - and again in that same report some criticial failures of the United States Intelligence Service and the Adminstration are also seen. The Dueffler Report is a decent source material to look at - it provides some insight to way the Inspectors had such a hard time proving or disproving the complaince of the inspection programs by the Iraq Government.

and

Read the report - you will draw you own conclusion - but you should be able to see the dangerous game of duplicity that the Saddam Regime played concerning the Requirments of the United Nations Resolutions over the last 12 years




Then in the followup post - I made it completely clear why the issue of Yellowcake Uranium is important.


Was it the destruction being done sloppily or was it initially an attempt to hid the stocks from the inspectors - and then over the years just left to waste and left unaccounted for.

If it was a sloppily accounting system for the destruction of the material - then that is even more damning to the United States reasons for going to War again with Iraq.

However if it was initially hidden (for whatever reason by the Saddam Regime) then its a clear violation with intent to decieve by that Regime - even with the conditions of the materials when found being that the weapons were no longer usable. The Dueffler Report seems to say (at least last time I read it - the conclusion I drew from it) that there was an intentional deception by the Saddam Regime to confuse others on the status of their weapons programs. Again this is a clear violation of the United Nations Resolutions and the initial Ceasefire Agreement which halted Operation Desert Storm.

This is all a far cry from your attempt at (well I will remain polite for now) taking my words out of context with this sad little statement which shows nothing other then a polarization on your part.


I believe the confusion about the yellow cake has arisen because U.S. bloggers have been blowing post-invasion reports out of all proportion in their desperate need to justify the invasion. Instead of taking Gawain’s and Redleg’s Yellow Cake Road, let us take a look at what the Duelfer report really says.

I don't need to be desperate about justifing the invasion - it was justified the second it happend by the Hague Conventions of 1907 by Saddam's Regime failure to complie with the initial Ceasefire Agreement.

Now to the Duefler Report You will find the link to the actual report here

http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/iraq_wmd_2004/chap4.html


In the key findings - tHe next line down has a statement also - one you did not post it seems. There is a reason why all the key findings are listed on one page - its because in Duefler opinion they were all important - ie the use of the word key.


Nevertheless, after 1991, Saddam did express his intent to retain the intellectual capital developed during the Iraqi Nuclear Program. Senior Iraqis—several of them from the Regime’s inner circle—told ISG they assumed Saddam would restart a nuclear program once UN sanctions ended.

A little futher down in the Key findings page.



As with other WMD areas, Saddam’s ambitions in the nuclear area were secondary to his prime objective of ending UN sanctions.

Iraq, especially after the defection of Husayn Kamil in 1995, sought to persuade the IAEA that Iraq had met the UN’s disarmament requirements so sanctions would be lifted.

ISG found a limited number of post-1995 activities that would have aided the reconstitution of the nuclear weapons program once sanctions were lifted.

The activities of the Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission sustained some talent and limited research with potential relevance to a reconstituted nuclear program.

Specific projects, with significant development, such as the efforts to build a rail gun and a copper vapor laser could have been useful in a future effort to restart a nuclear weapons program, but ISG found no indications of such purpose. As funding for the MIC and the IAEC increased after the introduction of the Oil-for-Food program, there was some growth in programs that involved former nuclear weapons scientists and engineers.

The Regime prevented scientists from the former nuclear weapons program from leaving either their jobs or Iraq. Moreover, in the late 1990s, personnel from both MIC and the IAEC received significant pay raises in a bid to retain them, and the Regime undertook new investments in university research in a bid to ensure that Iraq retained technical knowledge.


Like I said in the Sheehan Thread - Saddam and his regime tried a game of deception and duplicity regarding its status concerning WMD - all in volation of the initial Cease Fire. The finding of unaccounted for Yellowcake and other materials - goes to that point.

[Adrian II]

The finding of unaccounted for Yellowcake and other materials - goes to that point.The yellow cake and other stuff were accounted for and were (rendered) harmless after 1991 by the IAEA. That is the whole point.

[Redleg]

The yellow cake and other stuff were accounted for and were (rendered) harmless after 1991 by the IAEA. That is the whole point.

Well it seems that I have drawn a different conclusion from the materials that I have seen both on mainstream media and other sources.

But it still seems that you wanted to take a out of context shot at those who have an opposing viewpoint. Why else the statement of:

I believe the confusion about the yellow cake has arisen because U.S. bloggers have been blowing post-invasion reports out of all proportion in their desperate need to justify the invasion. Instead of taking Gawain’s and Redleg’s Yellow Cake Road, let us take a look at what the Duelfer report really says.

Its all fine to say I am wrong - don't have a problem with that at all - but such statements like that show that your well just as baised in your view as your accusing other of. I gain information from what I read - some of it is from baised sources - and I have stated that several times when I refer to them. However like I have stated before:

Again the finding of unaccounted for material proves that Saddam's Regime violated the ceasefire agreement.

The not finding of the material that was suppose to be accounted for is another problem also - don't you think?

That Iraq violated the Ceasefire agreement over and over again seems to be a problem does it not? Even Hans Blix stated in 2003 that Iraq was not fulfilling its obligations under the agreement and the UN resolutions.

However it seems some would like to believe otherwise.

The complete report - not just the nuclear annex can be found here

http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/iraq_wmd_2004/index.html

But if you believe its all accounted for - well it seems the Duefler Report disagrees with you

http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/iraq_wmd_2004/chap4_annxE.html

notice the list of not found equipment in that annex

[Adrian II]

http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/iraq_wmd_2004/chap4_annxE.html

notice the list of not found equipment in that annexYeah. Items like a Biosafety Cabinet, Class II, Use: Vaccine production from egg embryos I can hear you say: that could be used to make an egg bomb!

The bomb is already on your face, man.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

Go to the Sheehan thread and see how wrong you are Adrian. ~;)

Here Ill give you one quote from there


Wilkes said that some of the other radioactive material - including cesium-137, colbalt-60 and strontium - could have been valuable to a terrorist seeking to fashion a radiological bomb.

[Redleg]

Yeah. Items like a Biosafety Cabinet, Class II, Use: Vaccine production from egg embryos I can hear you say: that could be used to make an egg bomb!

The bomb is already on your face, man.

Have I treated you that way in this discussion?

All items on that list - are according to the Duefler Report - associated with the production and research of nuclear energy and/or nuclear research for things that can be of dual purpose of both energy and weapons. Are some items on the list biological items of dual purpose also - well it would seem so. However did you happen to notice what tab of the report all these items fell under.

However if you feel the need to make yourself feel better with petty comments - by all means continue.

[Kagemusha]

Maybe Saddam was thinking of bulding "dirty bomb".But US is using all the time "dirty ammo" made from depleted Uranium.

[Redleg]

Maybe Saddam was thinking of bulding "dirty bomb".But US is using all the time "dirty ammo" made from depleted Uranium.

Off topic subject though isn't. I don't agree with the United States using depleted Uranium in our munitions either. For the same reasoning - Uranium is a slow posion be it weapons grade (much faster in posioning you) or not.

[Adrian II]

However if you feel the need to make yourself feel better with petty comments - by all means continue.Redleg, please lighten up. Why do you have to take everything so darn serious? I have made 2 teeny weeny little jokes about you and Gawain walking the Yellow Cake Road (as in the Wizard of Oz' Yellow Brick Road) and about an egg bomb landing on your face, that is all. Just respond in kind, buddy. We go back a year now. For this kind of forum that is a long time. Let's have some fun, it is not as if you and I have to eat those 500 tons of yellow cake before tomorrow morning.

I mean, we don't. Right?

Or do we? ~:eek:

[Redleg]

Redleg, please lighten up. Why do you have to take everything so darn serious? I have made 2 teeny weeny little jokes about you and Gawain walking the Yellow Cake Road (as in the Wizard of Oz' Yellow Brick Road) and about an egg bomb landing on your face, that is all. Just respond in kind, buddy. We go back a year now. For this kind of forum that is a long time. Let's have some fun, it is not as if you and I have to eat those 500 tons of yellow cake before tomorrow morning.

I mean, we don't. Right?

Or do we? ~:eek:

Well I take this conservation seriousily - (especially since lives were changed and ended because of Saddam's actions and failures - just as much as you can say because of Bush's actions and failures) .

That and my humor level today is way down. (why the hell did I type that I my humor - must need more sleep - the wife is in a bi-polar cycle if that helps you understand my lack of humor today - and my humor level will most likely be down for a couple of days. The manic phase was fairly quick this time - only about a week - hopefully the depression cycle is less. Understand that she is always depressed because of her condition - but that bi-polar individuals often go into a deeper depression after the manic phase)

Without the emoticon I have no other assumption to make concerning silly statements then that they were just petty comments. Especially given my mindset for this week.

[Aenlic]

Politics, like religion, is a very emotional topic. We all tend to get bent out of shape from time to time.

I could have taken Gawain's quote of the old "... people over 40 who aren't conservative..." as an insult. Maybe it was intended as an insult, maybe it wasn't. But there's no point in my responding with a return insult such as quoting John Stuart Mill on conservatives. It doesn't further the debate. Ser Clegane smacked me around a bit and made me see the light - even if it's through bruised and swollen-shut eyes (heh, sorry Ser Clegane, I just like the image).

So lighten up! Drink a cold one. Watch a good movie or read a good book and then come back and get into the hassle and tussle again!

[Redleg]

Politics, like religion, is a very emotional topic. We all tend to get bent out of shape from time to time.

I could have taken Gawain's quote of the old "... people over 40 who aren't conservative..." as an insult. Maybe it was intended as an insult, maybe it wasn't. But there's no point in my responding with a return insult such as quoting John Stuart Mill on conservatives. It doesn't further the debate. Ser Clegane smacked me around a bit and made me see the light - even if it's through bruised and swollen-shut eyes (heh, sorry Ser Clegane, I just like the image).

So lighten up! Drink a cold one. Watch a good movie or read a good book and then come back and get into the hassle and tussle again!

I wish it was that simple - you will have to read the edit above.

Living with Bi-Polar can bring you down even when you don't have the condition but a family member does. But she is the woman that I love with all my heart and soul so I stick with her and help her through the problems and emotions of the condition - but it does drain me for a while.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

I could have taken Gawain's quote of the old "... people over 40 who aren't conservative..." as an insult

Yes you could have but you know it was a joke. ~;)

[Aenlic]

Make sure she stays on her medication regularly. Avoid Tom Cruise like the plague (he's an ass anyway).

BPD affects everyone around, not just the person who has it. You have my sincere best wishes in that regard.

[Adrian II]

BPD affects everyone around, not just the person who has it. You have my sincere best wishes in that regard.And mine as well, Redleg. Sorry for my lousy timing.

[Redleg]

Make sure she stays on her medication regularly. Avoid Tom Cruise like the plague (he's an ass anyway).

Couldn't agree more - made up condition my rearend. Was good is my wife knows she has this condition and wants to be better - so she makes sure she remains on her meds and then sees the doctor when we determine the medication is not helping. It is sometimes hard to tell - since the medication doesn't make the condition go away - just helps to moderate it.



BPD affects everyone around, not just the person who has it. You have my sincere best wishes in that regard.

Yep and thanks

[Redleg]

And mine as well, Redleg. Sorry for my lousy timing.

Your timing wasn't off - its mine - just put an emoticon when your trying to get my goad so to speak.

[Reverend Joe]

Every time I hear about Yellowcake I get hungry.

[Aenlic]

You're obviously descended from the proud people of the former Soviet Republic of Nukehavistan, where the national food is actually yellowcake.

Wow, The Onion is turning out to be really topical today!

From last week's issue of The Onion, a story about Nukehavistan.

http://theonion.com/news/index.php?issue=4133&n=1

Here's the Nukehavistan at a glance fact sheet:

http://theonion.com/images/451/article3309.jpg