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View Full Version : Katrina now Category 5



Red Harvest
28/08/05, 16:11
This one is looking really, really bad. 175 mph winds and a pressure of about 907 millbars. Mandatory evacuations are underway. This is shaping up as the worst case scenario that New Orleans has feared for so long.

Crazed Rabbit
28/08/05, 17:39
I wouldn't want to be anywhere near New Orleans now.

Crazed Rabbit

Sjakihata
28/08/05, 18:03
Just saw in the news that Bush ordered the mayor, Ray Naigin (sp?), to evacuate.

I hope it will be as smooth as possible

ichi
28/08/05, 18:21
The last really bad hurricane that killed 70 some people in Louisiana was Betsy, in the 60's. It had a very similar path that just clipped the tip of Florida before smashing into New Orleans with 20+ foot surge.

Katrina looks to be worse. Some 100,000 people have no way to get out of a city that sits below sea level. So for them . . .


"When The Levee Breaks"

If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break,
If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break,
When The Levee Breaks I'll have no place to stay.

Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan,
Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan,
Got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home,
Oh, well, oh, well, oh, well.

Don't it make you feel bad
When you're tryin' to find your way home,
You don't know which way to go?
If you're goin' down South
They go no work to do,
If you don't know about Chicago.

Cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
Now, cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move.

All last night sat on the levee and moaned,
All last night sat on the levee and moaned,
Thinkin' about me baby and my happy home.
Going, going to Chicago... Going to Chicago... Sorry but I can't take you...
Going down... going down now... going down....

Good luck everybody in the path

ichi :bow:

IrishMike
28/08/05, 18:24
Looks like after it comes on land, its comming straight up at me. While not anything like the coast will experience, 1 week of straight rain can takes its toll.

Big_John
28/08/05, 18:27
is there any danger of the river control systems being compromised?

Fabolous
28/08/05, 18:27
We here in florida got lucky that it went so far west, otherwise it might have destroyed the florida panhandle, and we are losing enough lives and money without that.
This strom is crazy strong. I have a thing for hurricanes, I find them to be extremly interesting, espcially how they can do completly unexpected things.

IrishMike
28/08/05, 18:30
is there any danger of the river control systems being compromised?

In the low lying areas, at least up here in Kentucky, their is a serious danger of that. Most big cities around here are protected quite nicely with either earthen walls or concrete walls, but your small towns and farm land mostly remain dangeriously unprotected. With either small little walls or sometimes none at all.

Kagemusha
28/08/05, 18:36
I hope it wont hit your Country too hard.Good luck to everyone at New Orleans.

Seamus Fermanagh
28/08/05, 18:40
I've lived through a pair of "2's," Floyd and Isabel. Such storms are not a joke.

Though we are 8 miles inland from the Chesapeake Bay, and over 40 miles from the Atlantic coast, these storms were still staggering.

Floyd dumped 33" (C. 1M) of rain on us over the course of 26 hours. Despite a complete lack of storm surge in our area, we flooded like mad. One small town on the Southside had 80% of its downtown ruined.

Isabel had a bad surge only on the NC barrier islands, but had a blob of hurricane force winds more than 100 miles (150km) wide. It destroyed more trees than imaginable and gutted the power grid for a big chunk of the mid-atlantic region of the US East Coast.

Living through a "2" going over you is like living through a bad summer thunderstorm....that lasts for 6-12 hours. Trees drop, rooves rip, and minor destruction is widespread.

These were "2's." A "5" is not a natural disaster, a "5" is something people write epic poems about or the plot of a movie you go see and laugh at -- because you just can't believe it is possible.

A "5" striking an area with major urban buildup at -12' MSL (-3.6m) is even worse, something out of a Hellenic myth.

For the few who can't or won't leave, I ask those of you who do pray to send them your prayers -- they'll need them. To the non-prayers, think good thoughts.

Seamus

Red Harvest
28/08/05, 19:08
There is potential for it to take months to even pump the city out with the expected storm surge, because the surge is anticipated to be so high that the pump stations will be submerged as well.

I don't think Bush called for the evacuation. I believe the mayor made that call last night (or FEMA.)

Oil production has been cut by a third in the Gulf. There are a number of refineries in the path of this one. I'm not sure how much wind damage or levy damage can be anticipated. I'm not familiar enough with the elevations and levies in the area from the work I've done with them, nor with how the river and rain will respond. Wind damage alone could be pretty bad.

My only reasons for wishing the hit had come in Florida is that the storm would not have had as much opportunity to strengthen before making landfall and because it is not below sea level.

Let's just pray that things go much better than anticipated at the moment.

Ronin
28/08/05, 19:36
hope everyone that lives in that area can get out ok....

if you can´t/won´t leave....hang on to something..because it looks like kansas going bye-bye ~;)

Xiahou
28/08/05, 21:12
Here (http://www.wdsu.com/wxcam/1475332/detail.html) is a link to the New Orleans causeway bridge cam. Currently it's just after 3pm there and boy is it dark for that time of day- looks very ominous.

Aenlic
28/08/05, 21:41
More than 70% of the city of New Orleans is below sea level, an average of from 5 to 10 feet below. The city is protected by a series of levees which separate it from the Mississippi river which actually flows past above the city level. It's actually fun to watch ships pass by above eye level. That's on the west and south side of the city. To the north is Lake Ponchartrain. The city is slightly higher there and there are fewer levees.

Storm surge is expected to be 20+ feet, possibly more. That's well over the levee banks. The city has a pumping system to remove rainwater when it rains, but it becomes overwhelmed when the rain exceeds more than 3 inches an hour or so. This is far beyond that.

A few other statistics.

If Katrina maintains category 5 status, it will be only the 4th hurricane since they've kept records to have been a cat 5 when it reached the U.S. coast. The others were the Great Labors Day hurricane of 1935 in the Florida Keys (before they were named), Camille in 1969 and Andrew in 1992. Katrina is right now more powerful than the cat 5, 1969 hurricane Camille which had a 25 foot storm surge.

Adrian II
28/08/05, 23:09
Good luck to any and all .org members who live in that area. You guys probably have better things to do right now than lurking on this forum anyway. Hang in there, and if everything comes down around you, just think of the stories you will be telling your grandchildren one day.
:charge:

InsaneApache
29/08/05, 00:49
Amen to that.

PanzerJaeger
29/08/05, 06:08
The song is perfect Ichi. :bow:

If you're the praying type, nows the time if you have any sympathy for those still trapped in N'alens... :embarassed:

Papewaio
29/08/05, 06:42
Now repeat after me:

There is no such thing as global warming.

Sea levels will not rise.

The number and severity of storms will not rise.

Extremes of weather will not happen. Neither extra dry spells leading to massive forest fires nor large quantities of snow will land in some zones.

Cities will not be flooded by either: Raising sea levels, tsunamis or flooding rivers.

Even if the temperatures are rising they are not influenced by man nor does more heat input mean a rise in atmospheric water leading to more rain and snow.

:charge:

Adrian II
29/08/05, 07:24
EDIT
Forget my comments about global warming. By the looks of it, people are going to die in New Orleans today. So 'funny' remarks, academic points or political recriminations have no place in this thread.

dgfred
29/08/05, 16:15
Levies in N.O. are reported to have given way :sick: , this could get very
ugly.

Steppe Merc
29/08/05, 16:27
Good luck to everyone around that area...

drone
29/08/05, 16:52
CNN is reporting that parts of New Orleans are under 6 feet of water, some of the pumps have failed. Windspeeds are down to Cat 3 strength, ~125 mph. The roof of the Superdome is damaged, they have about 10,000 evacuees inside, but the structure should hold. Gulfport, Mississippi is under 10 feet of water, it's not looking good there.

Red Harvest
29/08/05, 23:02
I think the area was a bit fortunate in the end. It helped that the storm was making landfall around daybreak. They tend to be weakest then so it had dropped to Category 4.

It is very bad, but this one had the makings of being a whole lot worse.

Yes, global warming discussions per se should probably happen in a different thread. There is no arguing that warmer water temperatures drive more powerful storms. I've been able to observe some changes in water temp scuba diving in the Gulf and Caribbean over a decade or so. I can see the coral bleaching, I can feel the increased temps, and I can measure them...

Kaiser of Arabia
29/08/05, 23:36
This is bad.
Very bad.
God bless the South. For they need it now.

Strike For The South
29/08/05, 23:38
This is bad.
Very bad.
God bless the South. For they need it now.

They will be fine god always blesses the south and he will see them through ~:cheers: ~:cheers: ~:cheers:

Papewaio
30/08/05, 02:30
Yes, global warming discussions per se should probably happen in a different thread. There is no arguing that warmer water temperatures drive more powerful storms. I've been able to observe some changes in water temp scuba diving in the Gulf and Caribbean over a decade or so. I can see the coral bleaching, I can feel the increased temps, and I can measure them...

I disagree.

One of the first things with solving a problem is to admit to it.

Most doctors that have treated me in the past like to figure out the cause of an issue.

If people are going to die, it is not the time to be PC and ignore any of the lines of investigation into the potential causes of it.

It would be like seeing a horde of people dying of AIDS and ignoring the vectors of unsafe sex and dirty needles.

I'm not saying that this Hurricane is any more caused by global warming then a butterfly. Nor am I adding that humans are causing global warming. I just think it is far more wrong to be PC and have it as a potential vector being ignored.

Is Global Warming Fueling Katrina? (http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1099102,00.html?cnn=yes)


One especially sobering study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that hurricane wind speeds have increased about 50% in the past 50 years. And since warm oceans are such a critical ingredient in hurricane formation, anything that gets the water warming more could get the storms growing worse. Global warming, in theory at least, would be more than sufficient to do that.

Red Harvest
30/08/05, 03:11
I disagree.

One of the first things with solving a problem is to admit to it.?

As mod, you can go any way you like with this, but to me it makes more sense to start a separate thread about the global warming side of things. While I agree with the basic reasoning, I also recognize that no event can clearly be tied to a particular storm. It unfortunately starts sounding like blaming the event on global warming, and that is going to cause ill will immediately after a natural disaster.

Papewaio
30/08/05, 03:44
Well it was started in the Backroom... I wouldn't have gone down that track in the Frontroom.