New Orleans: Long term

[Red Harvest]

I'm going to go through some guesses here on what I think will happen. (Can't say that I'm all that familiar with New Orleans personally, only been through there a few times for work.)

Evacuation/rescue = 2+ weeks after storm

Search for the dead = 2 months after rescue ends

Fix dikes, pump out water = 3-4 months after storm

Clean up basic filth and debris so that roads are usable inside/outside town = 4-5 months after storm

Repair roads/bridges enough for sufficient movement etc = 2 months (??? purely guessing assuming most modular parts were meant to be easily replaced)

Get gas, power and water back on to reasonable portions of not so heavily damaged sections: 2 months?

Longer term:

Starting over from a city planning standpoint, retaining a few things, but redefining much of the city.

I expect much of the public housing and submerged private residences will be condemned and bull dozed, without anyone ever being allowed to come back in. All public assistance residents will be moved to other cities/states.

I expect large sections of the city to be condemned and areas rebuilt after building up the ground level. Means all new utilities. Will take years.

New pump system able to operate with heavy flooding, will take years.

French Quarter and historic districts to be maintained.

Superdome, condemned, and rebuilt with higher elevation.

Large population in temporary housing, and temporary education for at least a year. Emergency payments to the dislocated until they can find work and/or relocate.

Total rebuild time: At least 2 years, perhaps 5.

[Lord Hammerschmidt]

Don't forget that a large portion of the electrical infrustracture will have been ruined by the saltwater. That'll all have to be replaced. And as bad as the flooding will be, a large majority of wood-frame buildings will likely have to be demolished. The cleanup will be simply massive, larger than anything most of us have ever witnessed.

EDIT: I should read more closely when inebriated. You mentioned most of the stuff I did. Didn't want to seem critical, anything I repeated was entirely my fault.

And while not as emotionally devastating, the economic impact of this is likely going to be larger than that of 9/11. I mean, gasoline went from $2.55 to $3.20 in my area in about 16 hours. This is going to have large, nationwide impact.

[Redleg]

I think you might be off on the road network - a lot of bridges were damaged - a good model to make an assumption on would be the I-40 collaspe near Sallisaw, Oklahoma.

I believe that span was shut down for over 3 monthes and it was only two spans and one support column. THe pictures I have seen of the bridges over the lake are far worse then that.


I think your about right for the rest of it - the total repair time will be close to your 5 year estimate - primarily because of the road network.

Not sure how long a permant repair of the levy will take. Also I think the city will need to make some regulations about how close buildings will be allowed to the levy. To minimize how much effect future construction would have on the levy.

[Red Harvest]

I think you might be off on the road network - a lot of bridges were damaged - a good model to make an assumption on would be the I-40 collaspe near Sallisaw, Oklahoma.

I believe that span was shut down for over 3 monthes and it was only two spans and one support column. THe pictures I have seen of the bridges over the lake are far worse then that.


The images I saw led me to believe that the supports were intact, if not then it is going to take a lot more time. Haven't seen any close ups. I'm also assuming that the design would be for the supports to survive while the roadway itself detached...have no basis for that other than figuring that it is straightforward to replace the road deck, but not place new supports.

Getting the road network and basic utilities, up to the entrance of the city appear critical path to me for clean up, not to mention demolition and reconstruction.

I don't think much of anyone will be living there (as families) for at least 6 months.

I don't think I even mentioned the water and sewer system...that will be a headache of mammoth proportions.

It is "easier" if they bulldoze and rebuild on the existing positions instead without trying to address the problems, but I don't think that will be allowed.

[Redleg]

The images I saw led me to believe that the supports were intact, if not then it is going to take a lot more time. Haven't seen any close ups. I'm also assuming that the design would be for the supports to survive while the roadway itself detached...have no basis for that other than figuring that it is straightforward to replace the road deck, but not place new supports.

My father builds road and bridges - from what I know of it from talking to him in the past - if a bridge shifts like that - the supports are weakened also. However like you am making an assumption - that the bridges are built very similiar to the ones my dad has built or repaired.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Well summarized.

A Roman city that got whomped like this would be rebuilt -- miles away on a site chosen to opt out of those difficulties.


Red: Houston might be a little angry with you for condemning their mostly un-used stadium. ~;)

Seamus

[Strike For The South]

Well summarized.

A Roman city that got whomped like this would be rebuilt -- miles away on a site chosen to opt out of those difficulties.


Red: Houston might be a little angry with you for condemning their mostly un-used stadium. ~;)

Seamus

People wont go quietly the love NaLens

[Red Harvest]

Red: Houston might be a little angry with you for condemning their mostly un-used stadium. ~;)

Seamus

Fixed it. :embarassed: I've been interchanging them all day since they started the busing.

[Red Harvest]

My father builds road and bridges - from what I know of it from talking to him in the past - if a bridge shifts like that - the supports are weakened also. However like you am making an assumption - that the bridges are built very similiar to the ones my dad has built or repaired.

Yeah, I have seen the footage in awhile. I wasn't sure if they had shifted or not. I saw the road slabs had slid, but where the slabs were missing the support column lines looked even.

It is the tall span that concerns me. I don't recall if the columns appeared to have moved.

[Redleg]

Yeah, I have seen the footage in awhile. I wasn't sure if they had shifted or not. I saw the road slabs had slid, but where the slabs were missing the support column lines looked even.

Well the Corps of Engineers will have to verify the bridges are sound before they allow them to be crossed by civilian traffic. They might do a fast repair to allow emergancy and necessary traffic at a controlled rate to allow for cleanup and rebuild.

When Dad repaired a bridge in New Mexico - on Interstate 40 he had not only all the state regulations to meet - but he told me the Corps of Engineers came out and verified that the bridge was repaired to weight classifications,

Its an interesting process nevertheless



It is the tall span that concerns me. I don't recall if the columns appeared to have moved.

Yep it will most likely be checked extensivily before they rule it as sound.

[ichi]

Seems to me like most cost-conscious corporations will look at the possible liabilities before rebuidling their NO operations. Only those who have a need for a physical presence (shipping, oil, fishing) will rebuild, the rest will relocate elsewhere.

A lot of people will leave rather than live with the potential of a reoccurence, some will be too frightened or too impatient or unable to deal with the delays.

It'll be months before the infrastructure will allow people to return to normal, I wonder how many will start a new life elsewhere?

Then there's the cost of rebuidling, the cost of improving the coastal defenses.

Seems like a very long road indeed.

My sympathies for those who are affected.

ichi :bow:

[Red Harvest]

Seems to me like most cost-conscious corporations will look at the possible liabilities before rebuidling their NO operations. Only those who have a need for a physical presence (shipping, oil, fishing) will rebuild, the rest will relocate elsewhere.

My understanding is that the poor will unlikely be unable to return. The various agencies won't be rebuilding that type of housing withing a zone like New Orleans. You can guarrantee it will all be condemned so they will need other long term housing. It will probably reduce the population that is hardest to evacuate greatly.

I'm not sure about others "urban creep" comments in another thread IIRC. New Orleans was only about 450,000 before Katrina, while it was 130,000 or so back in 1860. It looks to me like it was already rather bottled up within the levee.

[Redleg]

My understanding is that the poor will unlikely be unable to return. The various agencies won't be rebuilding that type of housing withing a zone like New Orleans. You can guarrantee it will all be condemned so they will need other long term housing. It will probably reduce the population that is hardest to evacuate greatly.

Yep that would be my guess also - I do image though the Federal Government will attempt to build some type of housing for them - but only a small portion of what is needed.



I'm not sure about others "urban creep" comments in another thread IIRC. New Orleans was only about 450,000 before Katrina, while it was 130,000 or so back in 1860. It looks to me like it was already rather bottled up within the levee.

I think that was my comment - and I was refering to the fact that the city grew into the levy system (up onto it at some parts if my memory of New Orleans serves me correctly)- and I was postulating wether building up to the levy might have weakened portions of it.

[Red Harvest]

Yep that would be my guess also - I do image though the Federal Government will attempt to build some type of housing for them - but only a small portion of what is needed.


I think the regs specifically prohibit such new assisted housing within potential surge zones. (My wife is the expert on that stuff, not me.) That would go along way toward alleviating some of the problems in the New Orleans population density and evacuation difficutly. As such they will be looking at govt. relocation instead...when FEMA figures out what they want to do.

[Idaho]

It will be interesting to see what political and ideological approach is needed in rebuilding and fixing the place. I can't see that anything other than massive state intervention and old fashioned Keynsian economics are going to work.

I wouldn't imagine there are many libertarian solutions to the problem.

[Ja'chyra]

If I remember right isn't most of New Orleans below the water level of Lake Ponchartrain and the Mississippi, and some of it below sea level, wouldn't it make more sense if the vast majority of the city is destroyed to rebuild somewhere where there is less chance of flooding?

[el_slapper]

If I remember right isn't most of New Orleans below the water level of Lake Ponchartrain and the Mississippi, and some of it below sea level, wouldn't it make more sense if the vast majority of the city is destroyed to rebuild somewhere where there is less chance of flooding?
I've been overlapped. The french quarter & its immediate neighbourhood sounds being built at a civilized height. The rest..... Well, The devastated area is big as 1/2 of France & France has more than 60M inhabitants, so there must be some other places to put peolpe & activities in the vicinity, no?

[lars573]

I've been overlapped. The french quarter & its immediate neighbourhood sounds being built at a civilized height. The rest..... Well, The devastated area is big as 1/2 of France & France has more than 60M inhabitants, so there must be some other places to put peolpe & activities in the vicinity, no?
No, Louisana is mostly swamp. In fact that is why the city is mostly below sea level and the Mississippi. The city sank over time. What you have in New Orleans is a case like Venice, where a city was built on a swampy river delta. And now the buildings are sinking into the mud.

[Lord Hammerschmidt]

Just as a note, the New York Times (http://nytimes.org) had a very informative feature with various maps, showing the elevation of various parts of the city, as well as a map showing what areas had been flooded and which areas were dry. For those unsure of the whole situation, that might be worth checking out.


EDIT:
Here's the link directly to the feature: NY Times Katrina Graphic (http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/national/2005_HURRICANEKATRINA_GRAPHIC/index_02.html)

Hopefully that works for everyone -- it has a nice map of the levees, and the elevation of the city.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

ASKING THE QUESTION

Yesterday, House Speaker Dennis Hastert dared to ask the question of whether or not it was a good idea to rebuild New Orleans back to the way it was. You would have thought he proposed bulldozing the city with all of the people still in it, the way some responded.

The governor of Louisiana whined about being kicked while they were down. But the question is a good one: should billions and billions of federal funds be used to put the city back in the same condition? What would be the point? There New Orleans would be...a sitting duck for the next hurricane. It would still be below sea level. Sure, the American taxpayers are going to step forward .. but should they step forward to rebuild a New Orleans below sea level again? It could be time to do something different.

Perhaps the answer is to bring the city to higher ground. But to simply fix the levees and rebuild the city would be an irresponsible act. It's time for better urban planning to ensure that another Hurricane Katrina doesn't come along and have the same effect.

People may want to shoot the messenger on this one, but given the sums of money involved, it's worth a look.




Hastert questions rebuilding of N.O.


Illinois Republican clarifies, says he meant effort should ensure safety of city's residents

The Associated Press



Hastert


WASHINGTON — It makes no sense to spend billions to rebuild a city that's seven feet under sea level, House Speaker Dennis Hastert said of federal assistance for hurricane-devastated New Orleans.

Democratic lawmakers from Louisiana were quick to disagree Thursday and Hastert sought to clarify the comment during the day.

"It looks like a lot of that place could be bulldozed," the Illinois Republican said in an interview about New Orleans Wednesday with the Daily Herald of Arlington Heights, Ill.
Louisiana Rep. Charlie Melancon called the comments irresponsible and Sen. Mary L. Landrieu urged Hastert to focus on the crisis at hand.

Hastert, in a transcript supplied by the suburban Chicago newspaper, said there was no question that the people of New Orleans would rebuild their city, but noted that federal insurance and other federal aid was involved. "We ought to take a second look at it. But you know we build Los Angeles and San Francisco on top of earthquake fissures and they rebuild too. Stubbornness."

There are "some real tough questions to ask," Hastert said in the interview. "How do you go about rebuilding this city? What precautions do you take?"

Asked in the interview whether it made sense to spend billions rebuilding a city that lies below sea level, he replied, "I don't know. That doesn't make sense to me."

Hastert later issued a statement saying he was not "advocating that the city be abandoned or relocated."

"My comments about rebuilding the city were intended to reflect my sincere concern with how the city is rebuilt to ensure the future protection of its citizens and not to suggest that this great and historic city should not be rebuilt," the statement said.

Still, an angry Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco demanded an immediate apology from Hastert.

"To kick us when we're down and destroy hope, when hope is the only thing we have left, is absolutely unthinkable for a leader in his position," Blanco said in a Thursday night news conference.

Landrieu issued a statement saying Hastert's question on how to rebuild can be debated later but that right now the focus must be on stabilizing the situation in the state.

Hastert announced Thursday that the House, currently at the end of its summer break, would return for an emergency session Friday to approve some $10 billion in federal aid for hurricane victims.


.

I think it would be a crime to just rebuild it. Also I think many will choose not to return.

[Adrian II]

Also I think many will choose not to return.What EA said. Their homes will be bulldozed for good ridd... health and safety reasons.

[Aenlic]

Hastert is an ass. I don't recall anyone in Louisiana calling for the bulldozing of homes along the Mississippi when it flooded in 1993. Quincy, Illinois received federal aid then, along with many other towns along the Illinois side of the river. The same for the Ohio when it has flooded. People still live there today. Just because Hastert is an undereducated, mouthy moron from a landlocked Illinois district doesn't give him the right to make pronouncements about things he knows nothing about. Maybe Hastert should close his mouth and engage his brain and go have a little chat with some other members of the Illinois Congressional delegation, like Jerry Costello of the 12th Congressional District, which borders on the Mississippi.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

Hastert is an ass. I don't recall anyone in Louisiana calling for the bulldozing of homes along the Mississippi when it flooded in 1993. Quincy, Illinois received federal aid then, along with many other towns along the Illinois side of the river. The same for the Ohio when it has flooded. People still live there today. Just because Hastert is an undereducated, mouthy moron from a landlocked Illinois district doesn't give him the right to make pronouncements about things he knows nothing about.

As a memeber of congress im sure he is far better informed on the situtation there than you are.


Maybe Hastert should close his mouth and engage his brain

Maybe the same should apply to you. ~D

[Aenlic]

Like I said, he should have a little chat with some of the Republican members of Congress who asked for federal aid when the Mississippi flooded in 1993, and whose constituents still live in the same flood plain - at this very moment.

Nice how you clipped out the relevant portions of my post though. Way to ignore the important parts and concentrate on the rest.

Look at what can be done with a little clever snippage, Gawain.

Your last post - using your techniques:


im

far better informed on the situtation

than you are.

Interesting technique. Shall we begin using it more often?

[Gawain of Orkeny]

Nice how you clipped out the relevant portions of my post though. Way to ignore the important parts and concentrate on the rest.

I had no problem with the rest of your post. Its the name calling and attitude displayed in the part that I quoted that I do have a problem with. He didnt say they should bulldoze all of NO. He made a statement of fact that much of the area indeed will have to be bulldozed. The question is do you make the same mistake twice. Do you rebuild it just for the sake of rebuilding it. NO should be the oil capital of the US but I believe Huston or some other city in Texas took over. Much of its reason for being it seems was already being lost.

AS for this part


Quote:
im



Quote:
far better informed on the situtation



Quote:
than you are.


Dont worry . I wont hold it over your head ~D

[Aenlic]

I'm pissed at Hastert for jumping on the screw the people of New Orleans bandwagon, which is essentially what he did. He was playing to the emotions of the moment, as can be seen by the fact that he later had to backpedal and "clarify" his statements. He quickly retreated from his initial point which was to imply that perhaps most (his word was most) of New Orleans shouldn't be rebuilt in a flood plain with federal dollars. That's a dimwitted statement; but safe for him because of the makeup of New Orleans politically and racially. He should be very careful making such insipid comments; because it isn't just New Orleans. The rich, white Republicans living in million dollar homes all along the Atlantic coast are also living in flood plains subject to massive hurricanes. I'll stop calling him an ass when he starts advocating bulldozing those homes as well. ~D

[Red Harvest]

Hastert is an ass. I don't recall anyone in Louisiana calling for the bulldozing of homes along the Mississippi when it flooded in 1993. Quincy, Illinois received federal aid then, along with many other towns along the Illinois side of the river. The same for the Ohio when it has flooded. People still live there today. Just because Hastert is an undereducated, mouthy moron from a landlocked Illinois district doesn't give him the right to make pronouncements about things he knows nothing about. Maybe Hastert should close his mouth and engage his brain and go have a little chat with some other members of the Illinois Congressional delegation, like Jerry Costello of the 12th Congressional District, which borders on the Mississippi.

Good summary of Hastert there.

[Del Arroyo]

While I don't think New Orleans should be relocated, there are an awful lot of people in smaller communities along the Mississippi more up towards St. Louis who have been flooded out not ONLY in '93, but in previous and subsequent years as well, and keep getting federal funds to rebuild. Some of these free-loaders have rebuilt their homes FOUR or FIVE TIMES.

I think there arrives a point where you've got to say "Ok, it was kind of muddy anyway, maybe I'll move...", but as long as we keep handing out $$$ so liberally that'll never happen.

DA

[yesdachi]

While I don't think New Orleans should be relocated, there are an awful lot of people in smaller communities along the Mississippi more up towards St. Louis who have been flooded out not ONLY in '93, but in previous and subsequent years as well, and keep getting federal funds to rebuild. Some of these free-loaders have rebuilt their homes FOUR or FIVE TIMES.

I think there arrives a point where you've got to say "Ok, it was kind of muddy anyway, maybe I'll move...", but as long as we keep handing out $$$ so liberally that'll never happen.

DA
perhaps we shouldent send money, we should send suitcases. ~;)

[Aenlic]

Some interesting things found on the web.

Pre-hurricane web site of the Mississippi Gulf Coast combined Chamber of Commerce (a sort of conglomerate of the various Chambers from Pass Christian to Pascagoula, including Gulfport and Biloxi) http://www.mscoastchamber.com/ and http://www.mscoast.org/:


The Biloxi-Gulfport-Pascagoula MSA
"The South's Top Mid-Sized Market"


Overview

• MS Coast economy driven by 5 key growth areas - gaming/tourism, manufacturing/distribution, military/federal installations, retail trade, and transportation.

• MS Coast is home to over 12,000 businesses, with 7,000 concentrated in Harrison County.
• Listed in 2000 Forbes’ “Top 100 Places to Do Business” and Money magazine’s "Best Places to Live" surveys.
• Biloxi-Gulfport area was named one of the "Best Places to Start a Business" by Dun & Bradtreet & Entrepreneur.com (2001).
Over the last decade, the Mississippi Gulf Coast has skyrocketed into the national headlines with its story of economic prosperity. In fact, this region (Harrison, Hancock, and Jackson counties) has been called the economic engine that is driving the "Mississippi Miracle" for its diverse economic base, made up of five or six growth industries...

Analysts predict that the Coast's strong economy and future job growth is sufficient to bring the MSA to nearly 400,000 by the year 2005.

Love those little snippets from Dun & Bradstreet, Entrepreneur.com, Forbes, and Money magazine.

Nothing on the web site mentions hurricanes. There is, however, an entire section devoted to the various tax-incentives given to businesses which move there. ~:)