Who is to bame for Katrina.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

Many here have been assigning blame to this person or that or this agency ot that myself included. Hers an article that I think pretty much sums it up. And its by a real neo con.


Assigning blame
Charles Krauthammer (archive)


September 9, 2005

WASHINGTON -- In less enlightened times, there was no catastrophe independent of human agency. When the plague or some other natural disaster struck, witches were burned, Jews were massacred and all felt better (except the witches and Jews).

A few centuries later, our progressive thinkers have progressed not an inch. No fall of a sparrow on this planet is not attributed to sin and human perfidy. The three current favorites are: (1) global warming, (2) the war in Iraq and (3) tax cuts. Katrina hits and the unholy trinity is immediately invoked to damn sinner-in-chief George W. Bush.

This kind of stupidity merits no attention whatsoever, but I'll give it a paragraph. There is no relationship between global warming and the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes. Period. The problem with the evacuation of New Orleans is not that National Guardsmen in Iraq could not get to New Orleans, but that National Guardsmen in Louisiana did not get to New Orleans. As for the Bush tax cuts, administration budget requests for New Orleans flood control during the five Bush years exceed that of the five preceding Clinton years. The notion that the allegedly missing revenues would have been spent wisely by Congress, targeted precisely to the levees of New Orleans, and reconstruction would have been completed in time, is a threefold fallacy. The argument ends when you realize that, as The Washington Post notes, ``the levees that failed were already completed projects."

Let's be clear. The author of this calamity was, first and foremost, Nature (or if you prefer, Nature's God). The suffering was augmented, aided and abetted in descending order of culpability by the following:

1. The mayor of New Orleans. He knows the city. He knows the danger. He knows that during Hurricane Georges in 1998, the use of the Superdome was a disaster and fully two-thirds of the residents never got out of the city. Nothing was done. He declared a mandatory evacuation only 24 hours before Hurricane Katrina hit. He did not even declare a voluntary evacuation until the day before that, at 5 p.m. At that time, he explained that he needed to study his legal authority to call a mandatory evacuation and was hesitating to do so lest the city be sued by hotels and other businesses.

2. The Louisiana governor. It's her job to call up the National Guard and get it to where it has to go. Where the Guard was in the first few days is a mystery. Indeed, she issued an authorization for the National Guard to commandeer school buses to evacuate people on Wednesday afternoon -- more than two days after the hurricane hit and after much of the fleet had already drowned in its parking lots.

3. The head of FEMA. Late, slow and in way over his head. On Thursday he says on national television that he didn't even know there were people in the Convention Center, when anybody watching television could see them there destitute and desperate. Maybe in his vast bureaucracy he can assign three 20-year-olds to watch cable news and give him updates every hour on what in hell is going on.

4. The president. Late, slow and simply out of tune with the urgency and magnitude of the disaster. The second he heard that the levees had been breached in New Orleans, he should have canceled his schedule and addressed the country on national television to mobilize it both emotionally and physically to assist in the disaster. His flyover on the way to Washington was the worst possible symbolism. And his Friday visit was so tone-deaf and politically disastrous that he had to fly back three days later.

5. Congress. Now as always playing holier-than-thou. Perhaps it might ask itself who created the Department of Homeland Security in the first place. The congressional response to all crises is the same -- rearrange the bureaucratic boxes, but be sure to add one extra layer. The last four years of DHS have been spent principally on bureaucratic reorganization (and real estate) instead of, say, a workable plan for as predictable a disaster as a Gulf Coast hurricane.

6. The American people. They have made it impossible for any politician to make any responsible energy policy over the last 30 years -- but that is a column for another day. Now is not the time for constructive suggestions. Now is the time for blame, recriminations and sheer astonishment. Mayor Nagin has announced that, as bodies are still being found and as a public health catastrophe descends upon the city, he is sending 60 percent of his cops on city funds for a little R&R, mostly to Vegas hotels. Asked if it was appropriate to party in these circumstances, he responded: ``New Orleans is a party town. Get over it.''




I dont believe that last part OMG.

[Don Corleone]

Let's just admit the white man is responsible, open our checkbooks and be done. We all know New Orleans was a black city, so white Washington decided to kill a bunch of black folks. We all know white America, out there in the suburbs hates black people and wants them to drown so they're secretly cheering. We all need to vote for the white men in the Democratic party to put an end to the white men in the Republican party.

Oops, I'm sorry. I had my Howard Dean live-feed on...

[Proletariat]

Don't worry, this 'Mother Nature' character will be taken down swiftly by the VRWC and the Liberal Media in the '06 election bout. What does she think she is, anyway?

[Don Corleone]

You're just a self-hating woman, Prole. Everyone knows the hurricane itself was a Republican led effort to make Louisiana a more Republican leaning state. I mean, after all, it's the only southern state with 2 Democratic senators. It suffered the worst brunt of the hurricane. Coincidence? I think not....

[Strike For The South]

This disaster has brought out the wrost in america ugh :dizzy2:

[Proletariat]

Oh dear.


Farewell and adieu to you, Spanish ladies,
Farewell and adieu to you, ladies of Spain;
For we have received orders to sail to old England,
But we hope in a short time to see you again

[Don Corleone]

Oy. Need I put the sarcasm tags up each time?

Anyway, I read an arcitle the other day on National Review that I've been trying to find independent confirmation on. Apparently, Louisiana has HAD the money to fix the levee system since the mid-70's, but graft and corruption have seen to it that the money went to it's intended uses...

I think everyone sucked on this effort. I think Bush laid a big stinking turd out there for everyone to see. And he's about number 17 on my list to bitchslap over the debacle. Fact is, we all knew New Orleans had trouble brewing, between it's location and it's local government policies.

Something that simultaneously envigorated me and saddened me was a blip I heard on NPR today... relief efforts from none other than that great "kill the middle class and poor" machine, Wal-Mart, beat all other relief efforts by a full 3 days. Bully on them, but I'm pretty pissed and afraid that the Army needs 3 days to catch up.

[Red Harvest]

Krauthammer did a fairly good job of assessing the blame in the response--but only if you ignore his "order" which is totally FUBAR. There are some errors/distortions in his comments (particularly about Nagin and the police) but I'll accept it as a reasonable starting point.

I'll start with this. Nagin did a better job than anyone lese in the operation early on, with the exception of the Coast Guard. Did he make mistakes? You bet, but he fulfilled his primary role. He lacked outside support both from the state and from FEMA. Kraut neglects to mention that 80% of New Orleans got out this time...and that about 10% were in shelters so they didn't have to be rescued from their homes. (Compare that with only 33% getting out in the previous response.) Problem was the outside help was way friggin' late and the Superdome and Convention Center could not be evacuated as anticipated. Put any of the others mentioned in Nagin's place, and you might have been looking at evacuating 2/3 of the population instead of 1/5th.

Hell, the country can't even come to grips with the concept of "mandatory evacuation" even NOW. And Nagin was supposed to do this in 24 hours or so? What sort of weed are folks smokin' these days?

The truth is, this nation is STILL not prepared to evacuate the poor population on short notice. We do need to develop a system for this. And you still can count on about 10% of folks staying unless they have a gun to their heads...that's just the way people in the U.S. are. You won't have time and manpower to forcibly move them, and the nation doesn't have the stomach for it even if the time and manpower was there.

I think the governor deserves a fair bit of blame, but the Guard forces at her disposal were a small fraction of what was needed, and I seriously doubt they had the equipment to handle the job. This is one reason I want an investigation.

Let's not forget Mississippi in all this. Contrary to popular belief, they have been as slow getting aid in a number of areas as New Orleans was. Hmmm...who gets the blame for that?

[Proletariat]

Couldn't have put it any better. I'm no Wal-Mart fan, but I heard the same on the Nipper today. Pretty disheartening.

Buckley has been introducing the nail to the hammer on NRO quite a few times recently. (pretty sure neither of those are the NRO articles you mentioned)

Other than our very own A2 (well, Xiahou too), I haven't seen any intellectual honesty on this matter here.

[Proletariat]

Here we go...

*sigh*

[Xiahou]

5. Congress. Now as always playing holier-than-thou. Perhaps it might ask itself who created the Department of Homeland Security in the first place. The congressional response to all crises is the same -- rearrange the bureaucratic boxes, but be sure to add one extra layer. The last four years of DHS have been spent principally on bureaucratic reorganization (and real estate) instead of, say, a workable plan for as predictable a disaster as a Gulf Coast hurricane.Wow, I really think he nailed that one. Before any of them point fingers elsewhere they better think long and hard about what they've done in their tenures to make a difference. I suspect for the vast majority of them- it was very little.

[Don Corleone]

Krauthammer did a fairly good job of assessing the blame in the response--but only if you ignore his "order" which is totally FUBAR. There are some errors/distortions in his comments (particularly about Nagin and the police) but I'll accept it as a reasonable starting point.

I'll start with this. Nagin did a better job than anyone lese in the operation early on, with the exception of the Coast Guard. Did he make mistakes? You bet, but he fulfilled his primary role. He lacked outside support both from the state and from FEMA. Kraut neglects to mention that 80% of New Orleans got out this time...and that about 10% were in shelters so they didn't have to be rescued from their homes. (Compare that with only 33% getting out in the previous response.) Problem was the outside help was way friggin' late and the Superdome and Convention Center could not be evacuated as anticipated. Put any of the others mentioned in Nagin's place, and you might have been looking at evacuating 2/3 of the population instead of 1/5th.

Hell, the country can't even come to grips with the concept of "mandatory evacuation" even NOW. And Nagin was supposed to do this in 24 hours or so? What sort of weed are folks smokin' these days?

The truth is, this nation is STILL not prepared to evacuate the poor population on short notice. We do need to develop a system for this. And you still can count on about 10% of folks staying unless they have a gun to their heads...that's just the way people in the U.S. are. You won't have time and manpower to forcibly move them, and the nation doesn't have the stomach for it even if the time and manpower was there.

I think the governor deserves a fair bit of blame, but the Guard forces at her disposal were a small fraction of what was needed, and I seriously doubt they had the equipment to handle the job. This is one reason I want an investigation.

Let's not forget Mississippi in all this. Contrary to popular belief, they have been as slow getting aid in a number of areas as New Orleans was. Hmmm...who gets the blame for that?

Geez, I dunno, but let's start with the Governor of Mississippi? I thought the whole news story was New Orleans was a black city, so Bush and Cheney made sure the hurricane damage was extra bad and the relief effort was extra scarce there. Which is it?

Red, I'm sorry man, I'm having a hard time pinning you down on anything other than a 'let's get Bush gloryfest here'.... First, FEMA and the White House were to blame because the poor people weren't evacuated. When it came to light that Mayor Nagin let a couple of hundred busses collect rust rather than use them, you all start with this campaign of "the poor should have been protected, not dragged away". Other than "let's get Bush", what are you trying to say?

I will grant you that the federal response on this disaster was pathetic. But despite your claims to the contrary, you make a lot of statements that indicate you seem to think it begins and ends with another Bush/Cheney get-rich-quick scheme. Dude, you're a smart man. You gotta let the anger go and understand...not everything is George W Bush's fault. Christ, I feel like Leon Paneta in 1997.

Bush, Chertoff and Brown did a terrible job on this. But the point is, they (and a boatload of administrations before them) had already sent money and plans to the State of Louisiana to deal with the crisis. The fact that Lousiana politics ranks up there the 5 families in terms of honesty and legality isn't Bush's fault. When a dam breaks in my town, I don't blame the White House, I blame first my city, then my county, then my state. Criminy, man, do you really want FEMA kicking your doors in and evacuating you the next time you have a tornado watch?

[Zalmoxis]

Why can't we just all say it happened because it did, and finish these discussions? Please?

[Aenlic]

Because we love to place blame, and it's a political creature from the outset simply because the blame goes to the politicians.

Even Colin Powell weighed in on the blaming today, taking the egalitarian stance that we all agree with in part or in whole that every level of government dropped the ball. He called for an investigation to find the reasons at each level. But when you have the area commander of the Army Corps of Engineers saying that they did a cost-benefit analysis and determined that protecting for a level 3 was the best option; then it's pretty clear that the final culprit is going to be money. Whether that money wasn't spent, wasn't appropriated, didn't get to the right people, whatever, is perhaps a cause for investigation; but in the end it's going to be money as the root cause. And that's really sad; because the final cost of this disaster is going to be orders of magnitude higher than the initial cost would have been for prevention. Not just in the short term; but in the long term. The CBO just recently said that this disaster could possible reduce the GDP by as much as a full percent, maybe more. The toxic sludge we're pumping, with unarguable necessity, into the local waters is going to devastate fishing and shrimping and the oyster industry of the area for decades, maybe destroy them entirely. There will be enough blame to go around.

[Aenlic]

And local. And it runs across many different agencies at all levels as well, including the military. Even though blaming the military for anything these days gets one immediately branded a traitor. ~:)

[PanzerJaeger]

Charles Krauthammer is a pretty smart guy. I usually always agree with him, although thats probably not the best endorsment. ~;)

I agree with the basics of his blame assessment, even the part about the American people. I hope he does write that article he was saving for another day - im interested.

[bmolsson]

I guess only God can be blamed for the hurricane itself, many can be blamed for not doing what they where supposed to do after the event, just to read their job description.....

[Tribesman]

Who is to blame ?
The Iranians , invade now .
They have a secret program , in violation of all the treaties , to develop Windfans of Massive Destruction , we know they have these windfans , we have evidence , we know where they are , and that is a...eh...um...FACT . ~:cheers:

[Red Harvest]

Red, I'm sorry man, I'm having a hard time pinning you down on anything other than a 'let's get Bush gloryfest here'.... First, FEMA and the White House were to blame because the poor people weren't evacuated. When it came to light that Mayor Nagin let a couple of hundred busses collect rust rather than use them, you all start with this campaign of "the poor should have been protected, not dragged away". Other than "let's get Bush", what are you trying to say?


Don,

I don't think any of you wanting to pin this on the locals have really tried to work through the timeline on this in an honest fashion. This has a "friction of battle" aspect to it, and an emergency force completely overwhelmed for 24 hours.

First, I've not heard a clear story on the buses. A couple hundred were not sufficient to do the task, so it is a red herring anyway. I did see a number of buses leaving on the causeway cam (~2 in each snapshot), so those who think buses weren't used appear to have been incorrect. There was really only enough time for a one way trip out. Two hundred buses is only about 10% of what was needed. Plus they needed destinations...and they needed some organized pick up. The whole damned system was non-existent on several levels and you want it made up in 24 hours? Ain't gonna happen. That's where the "national no response plan" falls apart. The shelter of last resort was a bit of stopgap and it would have worked passably if buses or airlift had been used after the storm. Instead, the baton was not picked up by Federal or State when it was learned New Orleans would need complete evacuation after the storm.

More importantly, had this been a completely unanticipated event, we showed that it would take over 5 days for the Feds to respond. How in the hell can we expect locals to respond in 24 hours, and Feds/State to take 5 days??? Blaming it on the system doesn't work. Sure, it slows things down, but 5 days???

Bush has completely failed in his supposed goal to make this country safer. In fact, right now we look more vulnerable than before 9/11, because enemies now know we have no plan for responding to a big disaster. You can argue about whose fault this is, but it needs to be fixed, pronto. Why am I so angry? Because the key plank of the GOP is that "we can protect the country and the other guys can't." That has been the primary reason given for electing/re-electing them. Yet when it comes time to deliver, they can't do it, or even come close. The excuse? Blame it on the locals.

That is why we need a full independent investigation. All levels of the response need to be evaluated. More importantly as a nation we need to get serious about doing things like this right. There is a lot of work needed to developing a true response plan, not just a couple of lines saying "this is what we'll do" but of working out how you do it, and how you do it in a short period of time.

[Adrian II]

Why can't we just all say it happened because it did, and finish these discussions? Please?Because 'it' meant death for hundreds of people, partly as the result of human and political failure. Mistakes were made at all levels, that has become obvious. Alas, I have seen few contributions that do anything more than hand out blame, re-apportion the blame and then re-apportion it some more.

One thing that surprises me is nobody picked up on recent examples of successful evacuations which I mentioned in several threads: China and Cuba for instance. Both of them have 'big government', a phenomenon that is usually associated with horrible inefficiency and a blatant disregard for human life. Strangely, in both cases these big governments were able to evacuate more than a million people within 24 hours and do so practically without any loss of life except in areas where the very worst part of the hurricanes struck.

It is not enough to point to that 'other' disaster, namely 9/11, as proof that American emergency management is up the its tasks. New York's apparent preparedness on 9/11 and the city's courageous and adequate reaction to the Twin Tower attacks were possible because all emergency management infrastructure was untouched; law enforcement and emergency services were left intact; their staff still had homes and families to fall back on; their offices were fully functioning; their equipment was lined up for them like it always used to; their means of communication were fine, etcetera.

What would have happened to New York if this enormous governmental and pphysical infrastructure had been severely damaged on 9/11? Would the people of New York have been able to rely on themselves, their neighbours and friends to do all the things that their professional services were unable to do for them? Would three be any human infrastructure to fall back on? Clearly, in New Orleans this human infrastructure was lacking.

The fact of the matter is that it is not such a big deal to organise people in cities or in the countryside for emergencies and to rehearse various drills geared to different kinds of emergencies. All it takes is time and money on the part of the government and a minimal sense of purpose and responsibility on the part of the population. One would not be possible without the other. Both are lacking more and more in our type of society. Why is that?

[Don Corleone]

Okay Red, you tell me... below you will see the central bus depot for the school board for the City of New Orleans on September 1, 2005. Does it look to you that local and state officials did everything they could do? If this is Bush's fault, what are you blaming him for, not driving the buses himself?

I know how badly you want this to be about Bush. And as I've said repeatedly, the federal government's response to the crisis was woefully inadequate and showed a frightening lack of preparedness. But they are not the chief culprits. They should have been a safety net, not the primary responders.

https://img.photobucket.com/albums/v334/tharris00/bus.jpg

[Red Harvest]

Okay Red, you tell me... below you will see the central bus depot for the school board for the City of New Orleans on September 1, 2005. Does it look to you that local and state officials did everything they could do? If this is Bush's fault, what are you blaming him for, not driving the buses himself?

I know how badly you want this to be about Bush. And as I've said repeatedly, the federal government's response to the crisis was woefully inadequate and showed a frightening lack of preparedness. But they are not the chief culprits. They should have been a safety net, not the primary responders.

https://img.photobucket.com/albums/v334/tharris00/bus.jpg

No, the truth is that too many folks want to give Dubya's administration a pass for being asleep behind the wheel. For once in his pampered life he should have to take responsibility for his actions.

WE HAVE NO SAFETY NET! DON'T YOU GET IT??? :wall: The safety net isn't there. A lot of bluster and talk, but no net. This from those who have most capitalized on 9/11. Damn right I'm mad, this is the sort of thing that I thought they were supposed to be preparing for. This is not how a national response should work. Obviously, nobody in the leadership chain learned their lessons. :whip:

Count those buses...looks like a lot, but not nearly enough when you work out the math. Why are they parked? I don't know, that is something I want to know as well. Why weren't they used? Who can authorize the drivers and call them up? Is there a clear way to do that? Someone from the school board I presume once they get a request? How many of the drivers would have still been available by the time they were called up (not having already left?) Again I don't know.

If you want to put primary blame on New Orleans for the mess you are hitting far wide of the mark. People in Mississippi and other parts of Louisiana are also not getting help. They've been left on their own as well.

New Orleans did the primary job of keeping most of its citizens alive through the storm hit. Like it or not, that is the truth. Could they have done better? Almost certainly, but 100% evacuation wasn't going to happen no matter how good their plan and support from outside, probably 90% was the most realistic target. Blaming New Orleans is like blaming the seat belts for an ambulance not showing up until 4 days after an accident.

[Adrian II]

WE HAVE NO SAFETY NET! DON'T YOU GET IT??? :wall: The safety net isn't there. A lot of bluster and talk, but no net.Hear hear! This is exactly what is worrying me about The Netherlands and our reaction to a possible major disaster, be it natural or terrorist or accidental in origin. We have all sorts of local networks to guard dykes, to douse fires, to sandbag villages and towns, to take care of victims, to transport necessary materials. But what if those very networks are destroyed in the way they were detroyed in NO by Katrina? Where is the national safety net, where are the competent professionals? It seems that supreme control will be in the hands of a newly-formed national emergency board of 12 civil servants, who will supposedly be headed by the Minister of the Interior during an emergency. Most of these 12 represent different ministries and services.

That equals twelve FEMA's, if you ask me... ~:handball:

[Redleg]

Hear hear! This is exactly what is worrying me about The Netherlands and our reaction to a possible major disaster, be it natural or terrorist or accidental in origin. We have all sorts of local networks to guard dykes, to douse fires, to sandbag villages and towns, to take care of victims, to transport necessary materials. But what if those very networks are destroyed in the way they were detroyed in NO by Katrina? Where is the national safety net, where are the competent professionals? It seems that supreme control will be in the hands of a newly-formed national emergency board of 12 civil servants, who will supposedly be headed by the Minister of the Interior during an emergency. Most of these 12 represent different ministries and services.

That equals twelve FEMA's, if you ask me... ~:handball:

Sounds like The Netherlands needs to learn from the mistakes the United States has made in the planning, preparation, and recovery process of an emergency diaster that overwelms the local authority.

[Don Corleone]

WE HAVE NO SAFETY NET! DON'T YOU GET IT??? :wall: The safety net isn't there. A lot of bluster and talk, but no net. This from those who have most capitalized on 9/11. Damn right I'm mad, this is the sort of thing that I thought they were supposed to be preparing for. This is not how a national response should work. Obviously, nobody in the leadership chain learned their lessons. :whip:



I DO get it. I said SHOULD have functioned as a safety net. They failed, IMHO. But a safety net is a backup plan. Yes, I'm pissed that the backup plan failed. But what about the plan itself? Did the State of Louisiana and the city of New Orleans really have no culpability? They continued to zone residences 8 feet below sea level on the flood delta for the largest river in North America, and somehow that's Bush's fault? They decided to let hundreds of busses sit unused and get their own sorry asses out instead of looking to their people, and that's Bush's fault? Yes, plenty of other areas were hit and devestated, but as far as I know, the rap against Bush is that aid took too long to reach New Orleans afterwards. If you're holding him accountable for the storm itself (which did hit other areas) then we've got a whole other debate on.

Honestly Red, is any statement other than "Every last death was 100% Bush's fault", going to satisfy you? I said he did a terrible job. I said Chertoff and Brown did too. I said they were in no way shape or form prepared. But it wasn't their primary responsbility and I hold those who it was to task first. If somebody breaks into your house, and they never catch the guy who did it, is that Bush's fault or your local police chief's? It's actually a fit analogy... Bush could have done more on the macro-scale to prevent crime nationwide, but is it his fault that your TV is missing?

[Proletariat]

Count those buses...looks like a lot, but not nearly enough when you work out the math.

Refuted.

http://static.flickr.com/26/40217123_8eb7949afa_o.jpg


Thanks to Tom for spotting these buses. I count 146 of them at that facility, which is on Canal Street and less than a mile from the Superdome.

Figure these buses have 60 or so seats on them. That adds up to an additional 9,000 or so passengers who could have ridden them out of New Orleans ahead of the storm and the flood in one trip. If Ebbert had followed the plan.

http://static.flickr.com/22/40217124_cb60ec509e_o.jpg


It's just a couple of blocks from the Ray Nagin Memorial Motor Pool. It could have been emptied after the flood, though that seems unlikely. If it was emptied before the flood, why wasn't the other one? They're not far apart. Here's a link (http://maps.google.com/maps?q=New+Orleans,+LA&ll=30.000594,-90.033131&spn=0.005190,0.007145&t=k&hl=en) to a wide shot that shows both facilities. The Nagin Memorial Pool is in the lower left, if Google Earth's links are working right. They've been a bit screwy.

http://junkyardblog.net/archives/week_2005_08_28.html#004757

[Adrian II]

Sounds like The Netherlands needs to learn from the mistakes the United States has made in the planning, preparation, and recovery process of an emergency diaster that overwelms the local authority.Man, we can learn a lot more than that. You guys have emergencies all the time, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, forest fires, it is all in a days work for mother nature in the U.S. and the whole neighbourhood. Over here we haven't had a major emergency since 1953, so everything that went right during Katrina is just as much a lesson to Dutchies. I bet none of those will be taken to heart. Nah we're all safe, just like we thought we were in 1953...

[Zharakov]

How could your government have forseen the hurricaine?

Are they able to see the future? No...


So why blame them?

[Strike For The South]

How could your government have forseen the hurricaine?

Are they able to see the future? No...


So why blame them?

Our govermnet can see the future the just failed to respond because of the zionist conspiracy to get rid of all the blacks and have the oil companies profit geez simple really ~D

[AntiochusIII]

So why blame them?Blame not the mother nature...

Anyway, people here are not blaming the gov for the hurricane itself, they're angered by the horrid response it - on all levels - provided.

Just to clarify...

[Red Harvest]

Refuted.


How exactly is that "refuted?" Those buses still would only carry a small percentage of those left behind, which is what I said in the first place. Yes, they could have helped, but they weren't early enough.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

There were over 400 buses and they were less than 2 miles from the superdome. They could have carried 25000 people in one trip. In other words they could have emptied the place.

[Lemur]

Where did this 400 number come from? Doesn't jibe with anything I've read anywhere. Source, please.

[Redleg]

Where did this 400 number come from? Doesn't jibe with anything I've read anywhere. Source, please.

Here is one I found - however I question its validity since if one carefully reads some of the conclusions its trying to make politicial points verus informing us of the facts

http://www.blogsforbush.com/downloads/kat_other_side.pdf#search='400%20buses%20in%20New%20Orleans%20not%20used'

You will have to cut and past the link it seems. It is a PDF link and for some reason I can not get it to link correctly.

But it seems from reading the source there it says 200 buses were available when the plan called for 400. The short of it seems to be though (in my opinion) that the evacuation plan for New Orleans was not followed by the city - most likely because they really never rehearsed it. And that would be the fault of the Mayor and the City of New Orleans government.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

Where did this 400 number come from? Doesn't jibe with anything I've read anywhere. Source, please.

Well I cant find my original source but I did manage to dig up this.


A Picture of Incompetence
Submitted by Bat One on Sat, 09/03/2005 - 23:38.
( categories: Analysis/Commentary )
There are some rather interesting pictures posted over at Junkyard Blog (http://junkyardblog.net/archives/week_2005_08_28.html#004752). NOAA aerials of New Orleans. Recent ones. Of buses. Nearly 400 of them. And those buses are just sitting there. All 400 of them. Just like they have been since before the hurricane struck.

The buses are assorted municipal and school buses. And if you assume 60 persons per bus, that’s nearly 25,000 people that should have been evacuated from the City of New Orleans… and weren’t. And that assumes only one trip each.



LINK (http://www.pennywit.com/drupal/node/3202)

My original was much better.


And how about the city buses. Instead of getting people out they were used to bring them to shelters.

And how about this?


After that, take a look at at the photos of over 250 school buses that were left parked in a New Orleans lot and not deployed to evacuate more people before the hurricane hit, despite the "mandatory evacuation" orders.

Oh yeah, and if you scroll up in the prior link, you'll see a satellite photo of an additional 146 New Orleans Rapid Transit Authority buses that were also parked, unused, about one mile from the Superdome. From just those two lots, nearly 400 buses that could have been used to evacuate thousands and thousands of persons with no other means of escape remained: idle.

Finally, take a moment to examine the State of Louisiana disaster plan, page 13, paragraph 5, dated January 2000, where it is stated: "The primary means of hurricane evacuation will be personal vehicles. School and municipal buses, government-owned vehicles and vehicles provided by volunteer agencies may be used to provide transportation for individuals who lack transportation and require assistance in evacuating."
LINK (http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0906macpherson0906katrina.html)

[econ21]

I'm not sure why everyone is focussing so much on the failure of the evacuation prior to the hurricane, which I agree was the primary responsibility of the city administration. Yes, it was woefully inadequate - failing to evacuate some hospitals and many nursing homes beggars belief. But to me, the incomplete evacuation is understandable - many plans and administrations may fail when faced with the risk of such a terrible catastrophe. People assume, maybe just subconsciously, that the worst will not happen and can be caught unawares.

What strikes me more about Katrina are two other failures that are harder to understand and point to a wider circle of blame, as the original article in this thread indicated.

First, the failure to protect NO against flooding. As I understand it, the levees etc of NO were designed to withstand a class 3 hurricane, not a class 4 or class 5 one. However, it seems that experts anticipated that hurricanes beyond class 3 were genuine risks. Since the funding for flood defence was probably going to be a mix of local and federal, I suspect the blame for this is spread.

Second, the slow and under-resourced rescue and recovery operation in the first week. Again, since all levels of government were supposed to play some role in this, I would spread the blame around them all. However, here, I'd be tempted to exempt the city from some of blame as it had lost much of its resources. Personally, I'd see a disaster of this magnitude as something that required a federal response, with FEMA or some other such body in the lead role, rather than just supporting local or state efforts. However, FEMA appears to have been working on the opposite assumption and it is understandable that this philosophy would not be ditched while everyone struggled to manage the crisis.

However, the blame game is largely besides the point. As the original article says, the blame seems widely spread and often it appears that the key failures were ones of plans, procedures and coordination, rather than individual people. The key is to identify what reforms would best avoid a repetition of something similar in the future. Trying to lay the fault at the feet of specific individuals will probably hinder the open minded inquiry and consensus needed to identify and implement those reforms.

[Franconicus]

Hear hear! This is exactly what is worrying me about The Netherlands and our reaction to a possible major disaster, be it natural or terrorist or accidental in origin. We have all sorts of local networks to guard dykes, to douse fires, to sandbag villages and towns, to take care of victims, to transport necessary materials. But what if those very networks are destroyed in the way they were detroyed in NO by Katrina? Where is the national safety net, where are the competent professionals? It seems that supreme control will be in the hands of a newly-formed national emergency board of 12 civil servants, who will supposedly be headed by the Minister of the Interior during an emergency. Most of these 12 represent different ministries and services.

That equals twelve FEMA's, if you ask me... ~:handball:
Adrian,
I really think that the EU will react much better than the US did. I know that Germany for example has almost everything you need, technical specialists and equipment, mobile hospitals and camps, military ... . And we have enough experience with floods.

[Adrian II]

Adrian,
I really think that the EU will react much better than the US did. I know that Germany for example has almost everything you need, technical specialists and equipment, mobile hospitals and camps, military ... . And we have enough experience with floods.I know that if the Dutch would ever need buses, one phone call to the Rhineland would be enough to have 2000 German buses on the spot within 24 hours. No doubt about it. But that is disaster control. On security matters EU-wide cooperation is far from ideal.

[Red Harvest]

Ok, let's break this down again on the local level.

1. Why didn't New Orleans start mandatory evacuation sooner? Good question. I felt they should have at the time, yet if you look at typical response you will see some reasons why New Orleans was slow to the punch.

The earlier track had New Orleans on the western periphery. Cities East of them had more warning that they were in the path. Yes, this changed, but it created uncertainty that slowed the necessary response.
New Orleans had a levee system which created a false sense of security. Many other cities that reacted sooner did not--they had fewer options. Again, this slowed the reaction to a serious and immediate threat.
Local officials were worried about the consequences of taking what would have been extraordinary action in a city this size. Again, this slowed the response.
This is not unusual for hurricane response. Action should be taken as soon as possible, 12 or 24 hours of "think time" is not acceptable, yet it is common. While people want to castigate the locals, look at how the Feds and States reacted. They are still largely paralyzed two weeks later. When you make the comparison local response was 10 times faster.

2. Those buses and the evacuation plan. The inadequacy of the evacuation plan was a known issue. The Feds in their Pam scenario (which was not adequately funded and was not completed) had expected even fewer to be evacuated than actually were. The evacuation plan was probably undone by time as well as by lack of preparation. A proper evacuation would have required state assistance. 400 buses would only handle 1/4th the number needed. This leaves us with a large population left in the city, still waiting on Federal/state evacuation that was not coming. You not only have to have the buses, and drivers (many who would already have self evacuated), but you also would have to have a plan for coordinating them, picking people up, and a destination. This is not a simple task, and it would have had to have been completed in about 12 hours with the time left on hand. Yes, not having drivers was an issue. They have apparently charged the kid who took one of the buses and got to the Astrodome before the rest in the aftermath. This is why you have to have this planned ahead of time. To make this sort of evacuation work, you need a rehearsed plan and more time to implement it.

3. The backup plan, shelter in place. Like it or not, this more or less succeeded in getting people out of immediate harm's way and as assembly points for evacuation. Pre-evacuation would have been preferable. Where did shelter-in-place fail? No support from outside: State and Feds.

For anyone thinking those buses were adequate...evacuation numbers were suggesting something over 70,000 were removed after the flooding. Even if all those buses had been filled, that still comes up short. Fed/State evacuation was still a NECESSITY. People were not going to the collection points after the storm (dome and convention center, etc.) because they could see there was no evacuation occurring. What I remember the reporters saying is that when supplies and evacuation actually got underway the following weekend, folks were coming out of the woodwork and continuing to fill the transport.

About "mandatory evacuation." Nobody in this country even agrees what that means. We lack the national will to even accept it or try to enforce it. This puts local and law enforcement officials in a serious bind. For those of you thinking mandatory evacuation and adequate transport would alleviate the need for rescue of thousands or tens of thousands in any scenario like this, I submit that you are dreaming. People don't get out when they should know better.

[Geoffrey S]

One person who's going to get the majority of the blame:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4239364.stm
Not to say he should escape all blame, but the responsibility for mismanagement goes further than Brown, both stateside and nationally. And with all these accusations flying around I've yet to see any definite attempts at improving the disaster response problems which are clearly evident.

AdrianII: you've caused me to look at the disaster control system in Holland more in-depth; it sure is more worrying than many think. And it's a most excellent subject for an upcoming essay at school.

[Taffy_is_a_Taff]

Bush because he has the secret African-American (and Cajun and good old boy) detecting super-weather-destructor-machine.

[Redleg]

About "mandatory evacuation." Nobody in this country even agrees what that means. We lack the national will to even accept it or try to enforce it. This puts local and law enforcement officials in a serious bind. For those of you thinking mandatory evacuation and adequate transport would alleviate the need for rescue of thousands or tens of thousands in any scenario like this, I submit that you are dreaming. People don't get out when they should know better.

Hince we must add one additional level in the blame for the diaster which is the evacuation and emergency assistance to New Orleans. Not in any order other then top to bottom. I am not blaming the poor who could not evacuate when the order came - but the ones who decided to remain when they had the opporunity to evacuate or leave under the assistance of the authority.

Federal
State
City
Individual

It actually gets uglier and uglier the more I sit down and think about it. A major failure in responsiblity and accountablity for many people and levels of government.

Makes me want to become dictator for the day and institute Redleg's investigation and hanging of all the criminal neglience that I have seen reported so far involving New Orleans.

[Adrian II]

One person who's going to get the majority of the blame:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4239364.stm
Not to say he should escape all blame, but the responsibility for mismanagement goes further than Brown, both stateside and nationally.Here is what Knight-Ridder reported (http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/12605339.htm) last Friday:


The Bush administration has filled FEMA's top jobs with political patronage appointees with no emergency-management experience, cut disaster-preparedness budgets and marginalized the agency by merging it with the new anti-terrorism bureaucracy, according to those experts, which include four former senior FEMA officials. The number of career disaster-management professionals in senior FEMA jobs has been cut by more than 50 percent since 2000, federal personnel records show.
...
In 2000, 40 percent of the top FEMA jobs were held by career workers who rose through the ranks of the agency, including chief of staff. By 2004, that figure was down to less than 19 percent, and the deputy director/chief of staff job is held by a former TV anchor turned political operative.
A TV anchor? I mean, a JOURNALIST!!??
(..) you've caused me to look at the disaster control system in Holland more in-depth; it sure is more worrying than many think. And it's a most excellent subject for an upcoming essay at school.I am looking into it right now. Seems that over here it is not a problem of incompetent political appointees, but of incompetent civil servants (seniority, paper qualifications) and absent emergency command structures. Communication by phone, yeah right. One power-outage and we're sitting ducks... ~:handball:

[Redleg]

I am looking into it right now. Seems that over here it is not a problem of incompetent political appointees, but of incompetent civil servants (seniority, paper qualifications) and absent emergency command structures. Communication by phone, yeah right. One power-outage and we're sitting ducks... ~:handball:

That should be fairily quick to actually fix if the government is willing to do the necessary steps right now. It seems a rehearsal would be necessary to really force your government to wake up and see that the potential of diaster of the magitude of New Orleans is possible there. (Minus some of the violence I would hope.)

[Adrian II]

That should be fairily quick to actually fix if the government is willing to do the necessary steps right now. It seems a rehearsal would be necessary to really force your government to wake up and see that the potential of diaster of the magitude of New Orleans is possible there.Because we are such a consensus oriented society, every last civil service team want their piece of the aciton. You think you have seen turf wars? Come to The Hague, my friend, I will show you 100-year-old bureaucratic turf wars that can make a grown Yankee cry. It works in peace time. Not in times of crisis. Sure, we have had rehearsals, but with advance warnings to most of the services involved, no power outages, no essential personnel missing because they have to do their daily jogging rounds/save their marriage/finish that chicken coop in the backyard...

[Redleg]

Because we are such a consensus oriented society, every last civil service team want their piece of the aciton. You think you have seen turf wars? Come to The Hague, my friend, I will show you 100-year-old bureaucratic turf wars that can make a grown Yankee cry. It works in peace time. Not in times of crisis. Sure, we have had rehearsals, but with advance warnings to most of the services involved, no power outages, no essential personnel missing because they have to do their daily jogging rounds/save their marriage/finish that chicken coop in the backyard...

Uh-ho you have a crisis in the making then. Well maybe New Orleans will wake the bureaucrats in your nation wake up. They can learn some major lessons from us on this - to the betterment (not sure if that is really a word) of your nation's response.

[Geoffrey S]

Blaming bureaucracy is the cliche of demagogues around here, but there is an element of truth to such rhetoric. Far as I can tell among civil servants there's no real chain of command, an awful lot of committee forming, and a general tendency to collectively stick their heads in the sand and pretend it's all going to be fine. At the moment we can survive this kind of attitude, but as soon as anything starts going wrong (either economically or in the case of a physical disaster) politicians will be more busy blaming each other than doing anything constructive; not really sure how the public would react, but the general apathy and disrespect towards the current generation of politicians doesn't look too promising.

[Redleg]

Deleted because I misunderstood someone's comments - my apology.

[Adrian II]

Redleg, I think with 'around here' he meant The Netherlands, not the .org. And regarding The Netherlands, he is right.

[Redleg]

Redleg, I think with 'around here' he meant The Netherlands, not the .org. And regarding The Netherlands, he is right.

Ah then I misunderstood what around here means.

Won't be the first time I misunderstand what someone states. If I am completely wrong with what he meant - then I will retract most of the statement.

[Geoffrey S]

Yeah, I meant in the Netherlands. Sorry, should have been a little clearer, no offense intended. :embarassed:

[Devastatin Dave]

Whitey. ~D