Failed Rita Evacuation

[Red Harvest]

Well, we tried to give it another go, making use of what appeared to an easy HOV entrance into the contra flow, even managed to scrounge more fuel for a two car exit...then saw some coverage that showed another Houston parking lot of I-45. So we unloaded the vehicles and gave up on the effort.

I've been watching all those folks trapped, without gas, abandoning their cars. This was a botched evacuation. The main problem was the failure to control and meter access to keep the vehicles MOVING. This led to a chain of events: much higher fuel consumption, much lower traffic movement than theoretical 1800 cars/hr per lane maximum, overheating, shear exhaustion. Many, many folks simply turned around and went home before they ran out of fuel.

There has been another problem. No gasoline in Texas... The hell you say? That's right, the State authorities were responsible for staging gasoline availability along the route as part of the evacuation plan. Apparently, several individuals all thought another was taking care of it. (Somebody made sure Rick Perry's hair looked good throughout though.) Result? No gas, until it was too late. I and/or my family could have gotten out despite the long wait, IF I/we knew fuel was coming or available *somewhere.* With traffic as bad as it was effective range of a vehicle was less than 100 miles. So this comes down to a case of "better the devil you know" (a prepared house) vs. a vehicle stranded on a freeway.

The refills were critical considering the congestion. The lack of refills then made the congestion worse. Don't misunderstand, the refills should not have been so critical, it was the congestion that made them so. When people are moving 1 to 4 mph (far slower than Rita) then fuel is a problem. Proper control of the evacuation routes would have fixed this problem.

Contra flow didn't work to even a quarter of its potential. Why? Apparently TexDOT had not really tested it, and lacked sufficient detail in their plans. They wasted quite a few hours trying to work out the details on the fly. It simply took too long. This is not the sort of thing that you can just make up as you go along. They seem to have been reluctant to remove traffic barriers to open up the system fully. Throughout there were too many bottlenecks in the early stages.

Two days without sleep, time for some shut eye. I won't be getting any sleep tomorrow night.

[Strike For The South]

RH batten down the hatches stay safe and my prayers are with god-speed

[Papewaio]

Good Luck.

Prioritise, Prioritise, Prioritise.

Wrap up anything important in plastic bags.

If you have an interior room without windows use it.

Have a window on the opposite side to the wind have it open... helps mitigate pressure differences that can pull the roof off.

[Divinus Arma]

Wow.

I have not the words...



Aside from: Dear God what if it were man made and continuous? Internally we are pussycats. ~:eek:

[discovery1]

Stay safe Red Harvest.

[Sjakihata]

Oh man

Good luck weathering off that storm. I hope you stay safe, and I can only stress pape's excellent advices. Also, make sure the PC is safe.

[Idaho]

So are your whole family going to have to tough it out in the path of the storm?

Take good care or yourselves and make safe choices.

[GonZ]

Best of luck to you and yours... and everyone else in the situation.

[UglyandHasty]

Good luck Red

I was watching evacuation reports on CNN, with the roads going north full. Why didnt they close 2 or 3 lane going south to redirect traffic north ? That sure would have help.

[Redleg]

What has happened is that the State of Texas Government has shown that Louisiana was not the only State government that has failed to rehearse and prepare for the possible evacuation of one of its major cities.

Shame on them - they might of decided to plan on a rehearsal after Katrina - but even then they were to late in deciding what the process is.

This should be a wake up call for all the States with Major cities along the Coast.

Good Look Red -


On a side note - on the news today the travelers from Houston are now delayed for many hours just south of Dallas. It seems a bus carring some citizens from Houston caught fire - they got everyone off the bus it seems - and then exploded when the fuel ignited. That was reported at 6:30 local time and they estimated at least 2-4 hours before Interstate 45 would reopen.

[The_Emperor]

A real poor show by the powers that be.

Goodluck Red weathering this storm. When its over be sure to put a weed up government's ass!

[Proletariat]

On a side note - on the news today the travelers from Houston are now delayed for many hours just south of Dallas. It seems a bus carring some citizens from Houston caught fire - they got everyone off the bus it seems - and then exploded when the fuel ignited. That was reported at 6:30 local time and they estimated at least 2-4 hours before Interstate 45 would reopen.

24 dead. :embarassed: Sounds like it was carrying senior citizens and an oxygen tank was mishandled causing it to explode.

Edit: Apparently the oxygen tanks only exacerbated the problem. I hope all the rubberneckers I see on the news strolling past the wreck run out of gas and get stranded.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Godspeed, and good luck.

Crazed Rabbit

[yesdachi]

Have you made note of good houses in the area for looting ~;) ? Just kidding, Stay safe!

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Keep them safe Red, and save your butt too if you can.


By the way, authorities in TX are hinting (Fox broadcast) that part of the problem was their expectation that folks would pack a minimum of clothing and supplies into one car and jet out of town. They did not expect folks to try to save 2-3 cars and as much personal gear as those cars could haul. So the evac planning managed to ignore human nature....again.

Seamus

[Xiahou]

I don't know that it's ignoring human nature so much. I mean, if the 4th largest city in the counrty and all surrounding areas, along with all coastal towns all try to leave the area using the Interstate systems and take all of their vehicles with them.... well, it's just not possible. The roadways aren't built with the planned capacity of every vehicle owned by everyone all at once, nor do I think it would be feasible to do so. I'm not sure that this shows a lack of preparedness so much as the impossibility of totally evacuating such large metropolitan area in a short time.

Of course, I do think they took too long to open all lanes outbound- but even that wouldn't have cleared up the traffic snarls.

[ah_dut]

Good luck, godspeed and seriously, remember to slap the state officials for not having the preparations necessary in the richest country on earth (not that it wouldn't be worse in england but the hurricaine risk here is very low)

[Red Harvest]

The snarls were the result of poor planning. Those could have been prevented. Those are what prevented the evacuation, not the volume of vehicles. They'll try to dress it up, but they should have been controlling access to the roads heading out...farther inland. The south eastern side of the city couldn't empty, because the west and north were packing out. Part of this is the Mayor's fault. He was encouraging people to leave who lived in areas less effected. Nobody did anything to make sure those of us in between had a route out. Only the early Galveston type evacuees and those in the worst areas had that.

Some neighbors left early on Wed, didn't put any effort into preparing their homes, they just fled. Many went to other parts of Houston where they felt they would have better shelter. There are still quite a few folks around though.

If the folks in charge didn't plan for multi vehicle evac, then they had their heads up their asses. Most families here are two wage earner. And in a number of cases the wife and kids etc were sent out before the husband could get away from work etc. Houston is a working city, people don't live here because they love the ambiance.

Lack of fuel around the state was a major screw up. It meant that vehicles were stacking up at the limits of their range, further snarling traffic. It wasn't just one mistake, there were many, each feeding on one another.

Frankly, they need someone without their head up there ass to do this sort of evaluation and planning. There were intersections with cycling lights on some "minor" parallel escape roads...they were cutting flow to about 10% of what it should have been on those lanes. This is like a big fluid flow/hydraulic problem. The controlling limits are in some ways better defined, and the bottlenecks should be obvious to those with proper understanding of piping network analysis, a map, and a knowledge of the intersections. The bottlenecks are at detail level.

[Ianofsmeg16]

Best of luck mate, from everyone here on the Isle of Man. Stay safe and report back as soon as it's over.

My prayers are with you.

P.S Did your wife get out?

[Big_John]

looks like the storm is weakening. that's good news. let's hope it doesn't decide to re-strengthen before landfall.

[Azi Tohak]

What a dreadful summer. I think we all look forward to hearing from you Red, as soon as you can.

Azi

[Kraxis]

So how have you planned it now? I expect you to be prepared for any eventuality. No I demand that you be prepared! I want to see you back here when the wind dies down again.

[Red Harvest]

The storm has weakened quite a bit, and shifted so far that it has been extremely mild compared to what I expected. I still have power for instance although the worst is not expected for another 6 hours. It has been so hot and dry (for Houston) that Rita seems to be having trouble even raining on us. It helps to be on this side of the eye, but even so, the hot dry air seems to be weakening the storm on this side. The wind is gusting up to about 40 mph on my checks outside, but I was expecting far worse at this point.

If things hold, Houston will have gotten lucky. I can't give the city or state much credit for dumb luck though. This luck comes with a cost, it means folks in Beaumont/Port Arthur and Louisiana will have taken a drubbing--and they most likely had less chance to seriously prepare on an individual level.

Thanks for all the kind words and prayers.

[Kraxis]

Good to hear... Or rather, not-as-bad-as-feared to hear

[RabidGibbon]

Really dont know what to say except best of luck, and check in here as soon as you can. :bow:

[Red Harvest]

We dodged a bullet in Houston. It is fortunate, as the evacuation was probably less effective than New Orleans. (Note: be prepared for bogus evacautions stats, they consider getting out of Houston proper "evacauation" even if you were stuck in a car in the path of the storm. Some of the people evacuated from Galveston spent 3 days on a bus only to end up in a shelter in Humble) Like me, my neighbors who tried to get out didn't make it far--most were still in Houston. All of my neighbors were back by this afternoon, they had not made it far at all.

For us the storm peaked about 2 AM. We never lost power although I heard 1 or 2 transformers pop and we had some flickers. Oddly, many other parts of Houston are without power. The rain total was low and the worst winds probably weren't much over 50 mph here. They knocked down a few fences, signs, and tore up part of my neighbors poorly constructed "greenhouse" throwing scraps into my yard.

I'll close with this: my neighbors and I agree that the New Orleans evacuation was more successful. If I had to evacuate a place, Houston would be near the bottom of my list (well below New Orleans.) Fortunately for Houston, it didn't get hit badly.

[Strike For The South]

3 cheers for RH ~:cheers: ~:cheers: ~:cheers:

[Kagemusha]

Red Harvest,nice to hear it ended up pretty well after all. ~:)

[Ianofsmeg16]

Nice to here from you mate, i saw the pics of Galveston on the news and i thought....oh **** this is gonna be bad...
whats the damage to your house?

[Red Harvest]

Nice to here from you mate, i saw the pics of Galveston on the news and i thought....oh **** this is gonna be bad...
whats the damage to your house?

No damage to my place, and we have the yard litter cleaned up now. The storm hit in one of the least populated areas along the coast (and the "dirty side"--the East was relatively less populated.) It will take about a week to put the house back in order since we moved everything higher in anticipation of flooding.

Two of the local grocers opened today, jam packed. In the store we were swapping stories, only 1 of the people I talked to got out and she came back because the path shifted to where she had evacuated.) The rest sat in traffic for many hours before turning around. The concensus was that evacuation would not be possible from this end of town.

We're ALL getting a bit p***** off about the mayor and outsiders patting themselves on the back about the evacuation. There is a lot of spin going on about how successful the evacuation was--don't believe it, it is 100% grade A bull.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

We're ALL getting a bit p***** off about the mayor and outsiders patting themselves on the back about the evacuation. There is a lot of spin going on about how successful the evacuation was--don't believe it, it is 100% grade A bull.

Galveston's seemed to have worked, whereas Houston and Beaumont were obviously "successful" only in comparison to NO (and I admit Red, that defining success in those terms isn't exactly setting the bar very high). What did Galveston do well that the others malfed?

Very glad you and yours were spared the worst of things. Good luck normalizing again.

Seamus

[Zharakov]

My news called the evacuation close to a success...

Of corse we don't really get news here...

[OlafTheBrave]

I wonder how succesfull they would be considered if the track of Rita had been different.

[Red Harvest]

Galveston's seemed to have worked, whereas Houston and Beaumont were obviously "successful" only in comparison to NO (and I admit Red, that defining success in those terms isn't exactly setting the bar very high). What did Galveston do well that the others malfed?

Very glad you and yours were spared the worst of things. Good luck normalizing again.

Seamus

Galveston had a key advantage of not waiting at all: they ordered evacuation almost immediately and on Wed. it was made mandatory. Galveston had to evacuate through the same route as this section of Houston. They had some cooperation as Houston held off (as they should have) letting Galveston get under way. A similar thing was done for Pasadena, etc. It was later when Houston's mayor made more general comments that he effectively trapped the rest of us. His comments led many other Houston area residents to also flee--even though they were not in regions that were expected to have surge problems, etc. The genius gave us an evacuation notice on Thursday afternoon...when it was already 24 hours too late to escape. (There were 60,000 in Galveston, probably several times that many in this quadrant of Houston.)

Those in Galveston did not fare as well as many have been led to believe. I know of a busload who spent THREE DAYS on a bus, going to Huntsville where they had been scheduled to shelter, only to be turned away because Houstonians had already packed that shelter. They bounced around and ended up back in makeshift independent shelter in Humble...which is how far my wife made it in her 10 hours of driving.

I'm telling you flat out, New Orleans had a more successful evacaution than we did. People who had transport made it out of New Orleans, that did not happen in the Southeast quadrant of Houston. If Houston had been hit by a heavy surge like the one that hit Biloxi and Mobile, we would have ended up looking very much like New Orleans (except the water would have receded here.) If our evacuation rate in this sector was over 50% I would be astonished. Folks fled to other parts of Houston, but the farthest anyone I've spoken to made it was Conroe. There were plenty of poor in Houston who couldn't get out and I've seen reports on them. Sure, buses got some, particularly in Galveston.

The State is going to have to figure out how to handle the traffic flow. It must be done throughout the routes, not just a short radius. You do not want folks trying to enter the stream even 100 or 150 miles out, as it bottlenecks from the end back if you are not very careful. It needs to be a staged evacuation, and it needs to provide better instructions to those in areas that are in less need of evacuation (stay put, board up.) Poor handling of the flow cut the capacity to a fraction of what it should have been. We had a mass rush for the exits.

Nationally, we need to work out a municipal and voluntary shelter network that can handle several million from any region within 48 hours. That way, the buses can have clear outward radiating destinations, as can individuals. Otherwise, the ends of the routes will block on you, and you create a giant parking lot for a large radius around any effected metropolitan area.

The evacuation of Houston was an example of how not to do it. Call it a lucky learning excercise (except for the 30+ unfortunate souls that I've heard of dying in the evacuation so far.)

[Redleg]

Damn it seems that the point of rehearse, rehearse, and rehearse has been lost to civilian leadership on what to do with any plan to find its shortcomings.

For the State of Texas that Rita turned into a real-life rehearsal more then the diaster that it could of been. However there were still many tradgic events during the evacuation process and the State needs to be held accountable for its failure to plan, rehearse and execute the plan.

Glad to hear it all worked out for you Red Harvest since its obvious to me that the state government did not execute the evacuation plan like it was planned. I hope Houston does not re-elect this mayor.

[Kraxis]

Urrhhh... It simply churns my stomach to hear this.

I'm just happy that it didn't turn out to be too bad, and that you and your family is safe, even your property is intact. But I'm still disgusted by this. But I guess if the politicians can't relocate the blame, like some poor refugee, then they will simply downplay it, even ignore it. In this case it seems like a combination of the latter.