View Full Version : Qa'ida's plans for Iraq...
A letter from al Qa'ida:
Babylon the great shall raise again and destroy the people of God... (http://www.dni.gov/release_letter_101105.html)
(sorry for the pun)
It seems al Qa'ida has plans for Iraq...
Adrian II
10-12-2005, 14:08
A letter from al Qa'ida:
Babylon the great shall raise again and destroy the people of God... (http://www.dni.gov/release_letter_101105.html)
(sorry for the pun)
It seems al Qa'ida has plans for Iraq...Of course they have. What strikes me in the letter is al-Zawahiri's clear criticism of al-Zarqawi's tactics with regard to the Shiites, the media image of 'slaughter' (which is not conducive to popularity) and even his own credentials as a 'foreigner' to be leading al-Qaida in Iraq. Interesting stuff.
He certainly is a bright fellow. He knows the dynamics of popular support. "Yeah you are right, but it will have to wait. We must win over the mases first."
No more video-killings, no more attacks on regular Shia and their mosques.
But I think he has misunderstood the situation. Those attacks are taking place because they are easy, and easy targets are used when you can't attack the stronger targets.
Adrian II
10-12-2005, 15:13
He certainly is a bright fellow. He knows the dynamics of popular support. "Yeah you are right, but it will have to wait. We must win over the mases first."
No more video-killings, no more attacks on regular Shia and their mosques.
But I think he has misunderstood the situation. Those attacks are taking place because they are easy, and easy targets are used when you can't attack the stronger targets.Blowing up the head of the Iraqi anti-terrorism unit, as happened a couple of months ago, is a pretty good result for an insurgent movement. Of course we do not know who did it, but it was certainly not a soft target. Heaven knows how deep they have infiltrated security operations. It seems insurgents are now using roadside bombs that pierce heavy armour as well; and they are killing more Iraqi soldiers and policemen than ever before.
Tribesman
10-12-2005, 19:41
Soft targets ???
How many attacks on the "heavily fortified" Green Zone in the capital city in the past fortnight ?
How many attacks on the police and military in the same time , both in fixed positions and mobile patrols ?
The soft targets are just an indication of the variety and differences in intelligence , co-ordination and expertise amongst the wide variety of groups and individuals who make up this "insurgency"
Devastatin Dave
10-12-2005, 19:50
Well, this should make liberals and leftists happy everywhere. As I've heard a lib on the Daily Show say once, "There is always hope Iraq will fail".
Adrian II
10-12-2005, 21:20
Well, this should make liberals and leftists happy everywhere. As I've heard a lib on the Daily Show say once, "There is always hope Iraq will fail".There is always hope that people will want to know exactly who the enemy is, and what he is thinking of at this very moment.
Kanamori
10-12-2005, 21:48
Stop conservative bashing Adrian.
Adrian II
10-12-2005, 21:54
Stop conservative bashing Adrian.So sorry. ~;)
Kagemusha
10-12-2005, 21:59
The whole Iraq situation is just turning worse every day.~:mecry:
Tribesman
10-12-2005, 22:20
The whole Iraq situation is just turning worse every day.
Hey come on , there is some good news .
The Iraqi bomb plot against the NY transit system turned out to be a pile of crap from an informant who has an atrocious record for supplying reliable information .
More international groups are feeling that security has improved so much that they can now operate in Iraq , well HizB'allah has opened offices in SCIRIs Basra headquarters .
Britain has agreed to pay for the damage it caused when it drove some AFVs through a police station .
See , just be positive ~D
But seriously , further amendments have been made to the proposed constitution to try and get Sunni Arab backing for this weekends vote. hmmmm....pity they already distributed those earlier versions to the voters , lets hope that they can spread the news of the amendments quick enough so they know what they are voting on eh .
Kagemusha
10-12-2005, 22:25
And that suppose to make me feel better about the situation?~D
The whole Iraq situation is just turning worse every day.~:mecry:
This letter is good news, if anything. It speaks of funding problems and difficulty avoiding the Pakastani forces in the Afghanistan border region. It also speaks to how many of Zarqawi's peers think that his tactics are counter-productive. Lastly, it confirms that withdrawal from Iraq would be exactly the wrong thing to do- it's phase 1 of the Al Qaeda victory plan.
DUBAI (Reuters) - Al Qaeda's wing in Iraq on Thursday rejected as a fabrication a letter by top group leader Ayman al-Zawahri which was issued by U.S. officials this week, according to an Internet posting.
"We in Al Qaeda Organization announce that there is no truth to these claims, which are only based on the imagination of the politicians of the Black (White) House and their slaves," the group said in a statement posted on an Islamist Web site.
According to the letter, released this week by U.S. intelligence officials, al Qaeda's second in command Zawahri urged the group's leader in Iraq to prepare for an Islamic government to take over the country when U.S. forces leave. He said brutal tactics risked alienating Muslims.
"This is proof of the obvious bankruptcy plaguing the infidels' camp," said the statement signed by the group's spokesman in Iraq.
"All of this is in a letter attributed to our Mujahid sheikh...and naturally we do not know how and where this letter is to have been found," it added.
U.S. officials said the July 9 letter, addressed to Iraq's al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was obtained during counter-terrorism operations in Iraq.
The letter, which appeared to show divisions between Zarqawi and al Qaeda's top leaders, was released days before Iraqis were to vote in a referendum on a new constitution in which U.S. authorities hope for a large turnout among Sunni Muslim Arabs.
Many Sunni Arabs oppose Saturday's referendum, however, and some experts believe Zarqawi declared war on Iraq's majority Shi'ite population last month to curry favor among the disaffected.
The Zawahri letter warned Zarqawi the killing of Shi'ite civilians and hostages risked alienating Sunnis at a time when al Qaeda in Iraq should be seeking popular support for a new religious state.
Hmm...
Adrian II
10-13-2005, 21:37
Hmm...Well, what is your take on it? I have seen some experts question the timing of the letter's release because it coincided with a last-ditch effort to rally Sunnis behind the new Constitution. On the other hand, none of them questioned its authenticity. The style seems to me to be undeniably that of Al-Zawahiri, but I am not an Arab speaker.
Well, what is your take on it? I have seen some experts question the timing of the letter's release because it coincided with a last-ditch effort to rally Sunnis behind the new Constitution. On the other hand, none of them questioned its authenticity. The style seems to me to be undeniably that of Al-Zawahiri, but I am not an Arab speaker. I spoke to a man in Jenin a while back. The man, an ardent supporter of the Hamas, was outraged by the, at the time, recent beheading videos. But he was outraged because he believed that the videos were American propaganda. “they’re trying to sully the cause of the freedom fighters” he argued. I subsequently found this to be a common belief, and not just in Palestine. Allegedly, this conviction is just as common in Iraq.
Another popular conspiracy theory is that the Americans are the ones behind the terror campaign against the Shia. That they’re trying to pit one side against the other, apparently a tactic employed by the Ba'th Party and the former British colonial rulers, so not uncommon to Iraqis.
With that in mind, a letter from al-Zawahiri himself, addressed directly to the alleged leader of the Al-Qaeda in Iraq, al-Zarqawi, which seems to indicate that the horrible acts are indeed perpetrated by the Al-Qaeda, would be a vital public relations weapon.
But who knows? Neither American intelligence nor the Al-Qaeda seem very credible to me.
Kaiser of Arabia
10-13-2005, 22:42
The letter from al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi
Wow...they're not the same guy? Are you sure?
~D
Wow...they're not the same guy? Are you sure?
~D ~:mujahidclonetrooper:
Leet Eriksson
10-13-2005, 23:02
I read the arabic script, seems like the noose is tightening on their necks.
Although i have the feeling that both organisations are not actually 1 entity, as Al Zawahiri seemed more like butt kissing him than ordering him around.
I still haven't read the entire arabic letter, but he seems to repeat some stuff from time to time. Like establishing an islamic state, and whatnot.
If it was a creation of US Inteligence would it not have Zawahiri say that Zarqawi should continue with the bloody attacks on regular Shiites? That would be much more of a "look, they are attacking you" effect. At least intended.
We all know that Zawahiri is a very bright and intelligent man. This fits quite well with the media war he has initiated (I doubt that bin Laden is very good at that).
Yo me the letter and its way of wording fits quite well with his appearance. If it ia fake, then it is a very good job, and in my eyes a case of putting the right words into another's mouth.
Adrian II
10-14-2005, 10:10
I read the arabic script, seems like the noose is tightening on their necks.I wonder what passages exactly give you that idea. Is it the mention that Zarqawi should send Zawahiri a hundred grand to tie him over until he has opened up new channels?
There is really no way of knowing, no baseline for comparison. Except that two years ago they had no operatives in Iraq that we know of, whereas nowadays they are estimated to make up 10% of the insurgent forces. Not bad for a non-territorial, diffuse outfit like Al Qaida.
My impression was rather that they are losing the initiative to the Iraqi locals and that Zawahiri is afraid they will be locked out of any power sharing deals after the Americans leave.
As for the backside-kissing, I believe Zawahiri's remark that Zarqawi, being a foreigner, is probably not the right Al Qaida leader in Iraq is rather harsh and certainly not complimentary. Zawahiri is hammering on the 'lessons learned' from Afghanistan, one of which is that the Taliban and Al Qaida were regarded as aloof and that they isolated themselves too much from the locals.
It ties in with a lot of what I know or read about them.
Tribesman
10-14-2005, 11:12
Except that two years ago they had no operatives in Iraq that we know of,
Thats a lie Adrian , we know Al-Zarqawi was there recieving treatment after losing his leg , the treatment was so successful that the leg grew back~;)
Oh and there was that Al-Qaida linked terrorist group (hey they are all Al-Qaida linked aren't they) operating under the protection of the US and British air forces .
See we know , and thats a ....errr... a ...."fact" ~D ~D ~D
Oh and there was that Al-Qaida linked terrorist group (hey they are all Al-Qaida linked aren't they) operating under the protection of the US and British air forces .
See we know , and thats a ....errr... a ...."fact" ~D ~D ~D
~:confused:
What? Would you care to elaborate for me?
Leet Eriksson
10-14-2005, 15:26
I wonder what passages exactly give you that idea. Is it the mention that Zarqawi should send Zawahiri a hundred grand to tie him over until he has opened up new channels?
Its a bit hard to explain really, the way its written in arabic gave me that impression.
Tribesman
10-14-2005, 17:39
What? Would you care to elaborate for me?
Ansar al-Islam , who established themselves in the Kurdish region of Iraq covered under the No-Fly zone .
Ahh... Yes those. Yeah they were pretty much protected from airattack, but not groundattack, and the Kurds showed how easily they were dealt with so I wouldn't go about saying they gained too much from that umbrella.
But what should the US have done? Tell the rest of the world "screw you, let Saddam bomb his 'own' people", or should they have begun a serious bombingcampaign of their own. Neither would have been a good choice.
One could say that the invasion was the only way to deal with that issue... Ofcourse it is bad, but hardly worse than using that group as a doublestandard.
I love how we always seem to know what Al-Quaida is thinking, doing, and what freedom-hating christiain-crucifying evil they're up to next, yet still can't find Osama.
~:handball:
Hehe... Yeah... But remember we are not in control. We would nopt only find him and his cronies within a month but we would wipe out world poverty (including hunger) and invent a viable substitute for gasoline.
Alexanderofmacedon
10-14-2005, 22:37
Well, this should make liberals and leftists happy everywhere. As I've heard a lib on the Daily Show say once, "There is always hope Iraq will fail".
Those are not lefties. Those are lunatics who say they are liberal.
Tribesman
10-15-2005, 00:24
Ofcourse it is bad, but hardly worse than using that group as a doublestandard.
Well no Kraxis , the doublestandard I was thinking of was the fact that a wave of UK or US planes protecting the region from air attack would be recalled to their bases to free up the airspace so that another country could launch its own air attack on the people the US and UK said they were protecting from air attack .
It doesn't really come in any more of a double standard than that does it ?
Well no Kraxis , the doublestandard I was thinking of was the fact that a wave of UK or US planes protecting the region from air attack would be recalled to their bases to free up the airspace so that another country could launch its own air attack on the people the US and UK said they were protecting from air attack .
It doesn't really come in any more of a double standard than that does it ?
Are you saying that the UK and US did exactly as I said wold have been bad? Didn't know that. Or am I getting something extremely wrong here...
Tribesman
10-15-2005, 02:05
Well thats what is so confusing , the group I mentioned first is a religeous group , so would have been opposed to a secular state like Iraq , yet the aircover provided meant that Iraq could not attack them .
But the aircover was supposed to be protecting ethnic groups from Saddam , but was repeatedly withdrawn to allow the Turks to bomb the same ethnicity that the US and UK were supposed to be protecting .
That is the double standard .
And as for launching an invasion of the North from Turkey to protect the Kurds from Saddam , how would that square with the Turks invading to attack the Kurds ?
Well thats what is so confusing , the group I mentioned first is a religeous group , so would have been opposed to a secular state like Iraq , yet the aircover provided meant that Iraq could not attack them .
But the aircover was supposed to be protecting ethnic groups from Saddam , but was repeatedly withdrawn to allow the Turks to bomb the same ethnicity that the US and UK were supposed to be protecting .
That is the double standard .
And as for launching an invasion of the North from Turkey to protect the Kurds from Saddam , how would that square with the Turks invading to attack the Kurds ?
Ahhh now I get it...
Well, the Turkish attacks were meant to be aimed at PKK, recognized as a terrorist organisation even before the events in the US. Meanwhile Saddam was wellknown to have made any excuse to attack civilians. Yes it is a doublestandard, but at least they had some semblance of correctness. Besides I haven't heard much about the Turkish airforces bombing the Kurds in Iraq. All the footage I saw was of tanks and infantry, something even Saddam was allowed to use. It was after all 'only' a no-fly zone, not a demilitarized zone.
Adrian II
10-15-2005, 21:15
But who knows? Neither American intelligence nor the Al-Qaeda seem very credible to me.It seems that serious doubts (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051014/ts_nm/iraq_usa_letter_dc) about the letter's authenticity have arisen since. Slate discovered an inconsistency toward the end of the letter which Negroponte and his staff can not explain. Other experts have pointed out that some of the content is improbable. I guess I will stick with your view for now: who knows?
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