Lemur
12-13-2005, 20:10
Well, here's some encouraging news: (http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-rosen13dec13,0,2433223.story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions)
Military setbacks are the least of the radicals' worries, however. Despite their continuing appeal to a segment of Arab opinion — think of young men shouting "Allahu Akbar!" as they watch endless iterations of beheadings on the Internet — Zarqawi and his followers have lost considerable ground in the struggle for Arab "hearts and minds." Their indiscriminate brutality in striking at Shiites and at Sunni "collaborators" has turned much of Iraq, including elements of the insurgency, against them, and their early November bombings of Western hotels in Amman, Jordan, sparked outrage across the Arab world. Even Ayman Zawahiri, Bin Laden's top lieutenant, felt compelled to rebuke Zarqawi, instructing him (in a recently intercepted letter) to cease actions that "the masses do not understand or approve."
I don't remember who said it originally, but the theory goes that an insurgency needs 5% active support and 90% passive support from the population. I wonder what tangible effects we might see as the Jihadis lose their base? Any guesses? How will we know if they're really losing steam? I got all worked up when Cheney told me that the insurgency was in its "last throes," so I don't want to fall into premature giddiness again.
Military setbacks are the least of the radicals' worries, however. Despite their continuing appeal to a segment of Arab opinion — think of young men shouting "Allahu Akbar!" as they watch endless iterations of beheadings on the Internet — Zarqawi and his followers have lost considerable ground in the struggle for Arab "hearts and minds." Their indiscriminate brutality in striking at Shiites and at Sunni "collaborators" has turned much of Iraq, including elements of the insurgency, against them, and their early November bombings of Western hotels in Amman, Jordan, sparked outrage across the Arab world. Even Ayman Zawahiri, Bin Laden's top lieutenant, felt compelled to rebuke Zarqawi, instructing him (in a recently intercepted letter) to cease actions that "the masses do not understand or approve."
I don't remember who said it originally, but the theory goes that an insurgency needs 5% active support and 90% passive support from the population. I wonder what tangible effects we might see as the Jihadis lose their base? Any guesses? How will we know if they're really losing steam? I got all worked up when Cheney told me that the insurgency was in its "last throes," so I don't want to fall into premature giddiness again.