Why the Videogames Industry is Headed for a Crash

[Lemur]

Wasn't sure where to post this one, so I'll drop it in the backroom for lack of a better place. Interested to see what the Org has to say about it.


Life After the Video Game Crash (http://www.pointlesswasteoftime.com/games/crash.html)

Who am I? I am the creator of a certain video game console. I don't want to toot my own horn, but let's just say that profits from this machine were four billion dollars higher than the Microsoft XBox.

My console consisted of a plastic milk crate with a kitten placed inside. The controller was a wooden rod that could be used to poke the kitten. I sold zero of these consoles, which cost me zero to manufacture. Therefore my profits were zero. The XBox, however, LOST four billion dollars (http://www.joystiq.com/2005/09/26/forbes-xbox-lost-microsoft-4-billion-and-counting/). Click the red words if you don't believe me. I'll wait.

{article continues} (http://www.pointlesswasteoftime.com/games/crash.html)

[Kanamori]

Meh, he tries too hard to be like Maddox. I will say though that I have found that video games, generally speaking, have become much more boring. There simply are very few new ideas out there; it seems to just be pretty graphics with the same old gameplay. I have hopes that they'll make some new titles for PS3, but I'm not holding my breath. The exception to this being WoW, or maybe not I've not played the other MMO's, where they've managed to create a new market; leave it to a mediocre gaming company like Blizzard. I'm just looking for something new like Baldur's Gate was new, and the such, maybe it's better that they're less interesting, anyway. Of course, though, I'm no expert.

[Xiahou]

I think, at best, he's only made the case that the Wii is in position to be a fantastic success. The author does though mix fact, opinion and generalizations in a manner that would make Michael Moore proud I think. :wink:

[_Martyr_]

I agree, not the best article or argument ive ever read. He does make a good point about the lack of substance in a lot of modern games though.

[master of the puppets]

a poorly written artical and the facts seem almost as scewwed as the ones about accidental gun deaths, but i see there point, as so many more video games come out there is that huge demand for the newest, which is always the most expensive. thats why i still play steams Day of Defeat(not source), tetris and halo 1.

way to many kids want to get into video game design its gotta bite society in the ass, in 30 years were going to have video game designers begging for food on the street, mechanics on every corner, and not so good archetect wannabes everywhere, but at least there will still be a lack of doctors and teachers.

[Lemur]

I thought it was funny. It made me giggle. Especially the videogame the author had designed, which made much more money than the Xbox. I don't think it's a serious argument, however, nor is it intended to be.

[doc_bean]

Well I stopped playing games for a few years until about two years ago. Simply because I had seen it all before, and I'm not that much of a graphics junkie anyway, and it's expensive, and I don't have a lot of time anyway...

I think I still spend more time reading about games (or god forbid, even discussing them here on the Org) than actually playing them.

Part of the problem with games is that they aren't 'quick', it requires effort and time to get satisfaction out of a game, two things i'm all too often not willing to spend after a day's work...

That said, movies have become crap too, and that industry is actually in trouble.

[A.Saturnus]

A crucial flaw of his argument is that in the last crash 1983, people did not stop gaming. They just stopped to use the established consoles. From this article, you could think that no one plays games on the PC, while in fact the majority of gamers do. Let's not forget that 1983 may have been a bad year for Atari, it was a good year for Commodore. And that's not unrelated:


Commodore explicitly targeted video game consoles in its advertising, offered trade-ins toward the purchase of a Commodore 64, and suggested that college-bound children would need to own computers, not video games. Research by Atari and Mattel confirmed that these television ads badly damaged both their machines’ images and sales.

But even if the crash of 1983 had been related to reduced interest in gaming, I do not believe that that could happen today. In the 80ties, gaming was still in a way "underground". It was not something the majority of people was involved in or even knew about. Until recently, when you played games, you were necessarily a geek. That's not the case anymore. Granted, a lot of gamers are still geeks, but not all. The most successful game in the history of gaming is now The Sims. The majority of customers of that game are? Female and young.
Gaming is becoming normal. It is slowly becoming a part of our culture. And that's why it will stay.

[Avicenna]

A lack of doctors? In my house at my school, almost all the other Chinese people want to be doctors.

[Kongamato]

I don't think it's heading for a true crash, but more of a stagnation period. I think that the marketing is reaching out for more types of people, but I don't think the games go out of their way to attract new audiences. As long as the innovative games keep killing the companies that develop them, the tried-and-true standard games will dominate the market, which will remain in a primarily young adult-adolescent age group.

Personally, the combination of increased responsiblity and lack of interest in new games has significantly reduced the time I spend playing. I've no interest in storming the hedgerows of Normandy for the 26,000th time, and after MTW and STW, I don't think my standards for tactical games can be easily met in the future. I avoid playing online because I'm tired of the same crap. Cheating, whining, immaturity and bugs to name a few.

I think the market is headed for a steady-state existence. The teens come in, play the currenly available generic games, and then lose interest after nothing truly new comes around, as they are replaced by the next set of teens. This should happen on some level, I feel like there are more people than me who think they are outgrowing video games.

[Alexander the Pretty Good]

Phew. I thought my career choice was in deep trouble when I read the thread title.

:oops:

[Alexanderofmacedon]

Why the Videogames Industry is Headed for a Crash

Because everyone is more worried about graphics than a good game.:wall:

[Papewaio]

But each event in that game is still carefully scripted. Run up to the busted-out brick wall. Truck pulls up. Six enemy troops spill out. Shoot them. Run down the hallway... get killed. Start over. Run up to the busted-out brick wall again. Again wait for the truck to pull out. Kill the six enemy troops. Run down the hallway. Pick up the First Aid Kit...

AI, or at least more random ability... I think game designers need a bit more game theory and why animals sometimes appear to act in random manners (which means they are less predictable and hense survive longer).

Also Spore (http://www.spore.com/) and in particular the designer of it (Sim city and Sims) is showing yet again that the current pretty graphics way is not the way forward.

TW series started off with a decent AI compared to graphics, yet the AI has not kept up with the graphics by any means. After all the suicide generals are back! TW has a huge replay-ability due to it not being so pre-scripted.

It would be nice if the AI for the generals was chosen from a menu based on number of stars, army compostion and then the traits weight the choices and even then it was a random selection for which battle plan. That the battle plan had at least 3 sequences to it... beginning formation and move, main battle and how it fights the last sequence.

For long term playability I think any game needs a random element to it (tetris blocks falling) and not to be heavily scripted. The eye-candy is second to content.

[Soulforged]

Meh, he tries too hard to be like Maddox. I will say though that I have found that video games, generally speaking, have become much more boring. There simply are very few new ideas out there; it seems to just be pretty graphics with the same old gameplay.You don't happen to know the innovation of Half-Life 2 with the Havoc Engine or the pretty sense of freedom tha Oblivion gives the player right? Why not the Total War Series, they're revolutionary by themselves...Perhaps you've heard of a new game called "Assassin's Creed", that's still a project for the PS3, wich will allow total freedom of movement and interaction with the enviorament.
The truth is that everything happening between the circuits is virtual, as such there's no limit to what you want to portray in an actual game. Innovation will always come as long as we've our brains.

About the article. I only can assume that, if true, this only means a crash for Xbox, not the entire game industry. Playstation has become folklore lately.

[GoreBag]

He doesn't seem too off-base to me. It's a well established fact that every game on the Xbox sucks and I'm still buying games for the NES. The used game, recycling industry is booming. NES classics like Battletoads and Castlevania 2 are going for 20 bucks each. When my friends come over, we play Blitz 2000 and Mortal Kombat II all day. We have no interest in the carp coming out these days. I think a crash would do the video game industry some good, and we can all go back to the glory days when blockbuster games were developed by four people in sweat-smelling closet.

[Divinus Arma]

That was a good article with some realistic insight into the gaming industry. Thanks for posting that.

[Zalmoxis]

Good article, but now I just want to play with the console he made...

[Incongruous]

Meh I loved the XBOX, and am going to get a 360 when Halo three comes out.