Seamus Fermanagh
05-23-2006, 21:52
A few points to consider:
1. Traditionally, the party holding the White House loses seats in Congress and the Senate during the "mid-term" election of a second term Presidency.
2. Republicans have held control of the House of Representatives since 1994, and the electorate may be in the mood for a change. A measurable percentage of the US electorate votes for a change just because the party in power has been there for a while (a silly reason perhaps, but demonstrably present).
3. Conservative elements of the Republican majority are incensed over illegal aliens, under-whelmed by Bush's pre-Alito court nominee, disgruntled with the length of time the Iraq rebuilding effort is taking, and thoroughly disgusted over No Child Left Behind, Medicare Drug Benefits, little substantive change on the tax system, and the failure to make headway in reforming social security. Many may well be annoyed enough to stay home, even if they can't bring themselves to vote for a Dem.
4. A noticeable number of GOP legislators appear to have been every bit as prone to corruption as the "bad old democrats" they ousted in '94. This leaves many voters decidedly "non-plussed" -- even with a few Dem examples as counter-weights.
On the other hand, I read a political cartoon that summed up the troubles for the Dems. Two frames: Good news for Democrats in #1, Bad News in #2:
Good News: Bush's approval rating slips to 30%!
Bad News: None-of-the above approval rating reaches 70%!
The Dems are heading into the election using, essentially, the same exact strategy that has failed them in the last 4 or 5 go-arounds. They could hammer the GOP silly this November if they shifted their efforts -- but not just by putting lipstick on the same old pig.
Apologies in advance to any swine who feel offended by that last bit.
Thoughts?
1. Traditionally, the party holding the White House loses seats in Congress and the Senate during the "mid-term" election of a second term Presidency.
2. Republicans have held control of the House of Representatives since 1994, and the electorate may be in the mood for a change. A measurable percentage of the US electorate votes for a change just because the party in power has been there for a while (a silly reason perhaps, but demonstrably present).
3. Conservative elements of the Republican majority are incensed over illegal aliens, under-whelmed by Bush's pre-Alito court nominee, disgruntled with the length of time the Iraq rebuilding effort is taking, and thoroughly disgusted over No Child Left Behind, Medicare Drug Benefits, little substantive change on the tax system, and the failure to make headway in reforming social security. Many may well be annoyed enough to stay home, even if they can't bring themselves to vote for a Dem.
4. A noticeable number of GOP legislators appear to have been every bit as prone to corruption as the "bad old democrats" they ousted in '94. This leaves many voters decidedly "non-plussed" -- even with a few Dem examples as counter-weights.
On the other hand, I read a political cartoon that summed up the troubles for the Dems. Two frames: Good news for Democrats in #1, Bad News in #2:
Good News: Bush's approval rating slips to 30%!
Bad News: None-of-the above approval rating reaches 70%!
The Dems are heading into the election using, essentially, the same exact strategy that has failed them in the last 4 or 5 go-arounds. They could hammer the GOP silly this November if they shifted their efforts -- but not just by putting lipstick on the same old pig.
Apologies in advance to any swine who feel offended by that last bit.
Thoughts?