Is Hezbollah losing the battle but winning the war? [Archive]

Productivity

07-31-2006, 03:07

Then whats the solution? The more Israel fights the more it helps Hezbollah.

I'm honestly not sure, I'd love to have all the answers but sadly that can't be the case.

I'd certainly have preffered from the onset of hostilities for the international community to as one, request that Israel stop and put a force into the South Lebanon area to keep peace (for both sides) as soon as possible. Letting attrocities go on like the recent building demolition and the rockets over the border is disgusting. In a situation where neither party is willing to act in a reasonable manner, maybe it's the responsibility of the international community to step up and do so.

It may not have worked, maybe even certainly wouldn't have worked, but at least an effort would have been made to prevent the crimes that are happening from both sides in that region.

Gawain of Orkeny

07-31-2006, 03:08

It did'nt happen to Hamas ? Of course it did they now have a government, let them build a professional army, then hit and see what happens

That was my point they didnt get anihilated.

If you really want peace (does anyone really want peace ?) then you have sit fdown with soem Arabs over a glass of Jack Ds, bring some ribs and give them something they want, or they will keep fighting for it. Elementary my dear Watson.

How when their sworn to genocide and its your country and race they want to eliminate?

Quietus

07-31-2006, 03:12

Well it seems to me looking at the polls from Lebanon that this indeed may prove to be the case. It seems that Hezbollah has picked up a lot of suport from the Lebanonse people. I think their misguided but I can see how. So in the end Hezbollah may wind up being the government and army of Lebanon. Then what? PM Siniora already thanked Nasrallah. I guess the guy got sick of begging for help and getting ignored.

As said on the other threads, Israeli is trying to inflict as much hurt to the Lebanese so they blame Hezbollah. Seems like it is backfiring because they are being hated a lot more and many are actually rallying behind Hezbollah. :oops:

Gawain of Orkeny

07-31-2006, 03:21

As said on the other threads, Israeli is trying to inflict as much hurt to the Lebanese so they blame Hezbollah

You cant be serious. You mean I missed this circus? You think Israel is trying to do as much damage as possible. :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4:

Seamus Fermanagh

07-31-2006, 03:28

They must all fight until no-one has strength or focus left to lift a stick, until all families mourn most of their family, and until the area is laid waste. Then, perhaps, they'll consider sitting down and hashing things through over coffee.

Quietus

07-31-2006, 03:38

You cant be serious. You mean I missed this circus? WB Gawain :balloon2: , I thought I saw a doppelganger of you in another forum ( nevermind....)

You think Israel is trying to do as much damage as possible. :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: Yes:
1) So to warn/check Hezbollah from doing anything provocative in the future.
2) So to turn Lebanese civilians against Hezbollah.

Their thinking is: Israel will respond very severely to any Hezbollah provocation, so the civilians will tie their suffering on Hezbollah.

But Israel basically killed too many civilians and destroyed too many infrastructures that the civilians and even the Prime Minister was rallying on the Hezbollah side.

Gawain of Orkeny

07-31-2006, 03:47

Yes:
1) So to warn/check Hezbollah from doing anything provocative in the future.
2) So to turn Lebanese civilians against Hezbollah.

You know as well as I do that they could infict a hell of a lot more damge than this if they wanted to. The only ones who gain by civilian deaths on either side is hezbollah.

Their thinking is: Israel will respond very severely to any Hezbollah provocation, so the civilians will tie their suffering on Hezbollah.

No hezbollah thinks that by hiding among civilans the civilians will blame the attackers and they seem to be correct. Do you really think the Israelis believe they can convince people their in the right by killing them? The Israelis lose with ever civilaian death. Its hezbollahs only hope.

Gawain of Orkeny

07-31-2006, 03:48

Shahed

07-31-2006, 03:54

That was my point they didnt get anihilated.

They did'nt get annihilated because the did NOT have a full fledged military/political infrastructure. They don't have it now either. Let them build it up and get comfy in it.

Next point about annihilation, it's a political power chip. They know vey well the can't annihilaite ISrael or the USA> They can be a pain in the ass, and that's where it ends. It's a bargaining chip.

Now I really did'nt expect you to ask that question Gawain. You are smarter than that. One always starts with the most difficult bargaining position since if you win you get it all, if you don;t you may get a lot anyway. The annihilation ideas are to play on domestic audience, primarily.

Never underestimate the enemy to be a fool.

Gawain of Orkeny

07-31-2006, 04:03

They did'nt get annihilated because the did NOT have a full fledged military/political infrastructure. They don't have it now either. Let them build it up and get comfy in it.

My point is that at the first terror attack Israel could have said it was by Hamas and declared war. Why let them build up? Isnt that why their fighting Hezbollah now?

Next point about annihilation, it's a political power chip. They know vey well the can't annihilaite ISrael or the USA> They can be a pain in the ass, and that's where it ends. It's a bargaining chip.

My point is Israel could anhilate them and if the shoe were on the other foot the Palestinians and hezbolah would.

Don Corleone

07-31-2006, 04:27

Shahed

07-31-2006, 04:30

1. Hezbollah had about 4 years of build up, with minimal interference. That's quite a bit of time yes, but I think it's too soon to intervene now. The more organised they are the more the become like our militaries, and then they cannot win, because they can never be as well trained, funded, fed, armed, disciplined etc. They only have religious fervor and indeed they have valor. They know what they fight for whereas most of ours don't know. That you cannot deny, going directly or indirectly against soldiers wearing the world's superpower uniform (or their croonies) requires valor. They are not all cowards as the Dane preacher thread would make up belive. It's foolish to look at them that way. By looking at them as weak you give them strength. Overconfidence is not required where there is confidence.

2. Israel is using the soldier capture as an opportunity to eliminate the Hezbollah as an entity. This is likely to fail, but there are chances it may succeed. However in the process of eliminating the Hezbollah other seeds are being sown. Another organisation will probably take it's place. Are you trying to justify eliminating the Hezbollah ? (rhetorical question). No justification is needed among like minds. An enemy has only one purpose of existence to you, when he is in your line of fire, to be the target that you destroy. Israel and the various extremist groups are enemies, what more justification is required ? (rhetorical) Now, if either side could, the would eliminate the other, given the opportunity. But that opportunity is extremely far away for the extremist groups, it is somewhat closer today than in 2000 for Israel, but it is very elusive. In any case even if the operation fails, lessons will be learnt and it will produce more veterans, on both sides. It is possible that this time the operation succeeds but it's IMO unlikely. The Iranians would have told the Hezb to get their heads down and wait till inevitably Israel will withdraw, as usual, as it will have to. Why ? because their window of opportunity is limited as well. Soon enough the American adminitsratioin will start pressuiring them to wind it up. Everything Israel does reflects on America, in the Arab street, and as you may have gathered it's best not to antagonise entire populations too much as the mapower and resources needed for an occupation are vast and draining.

Incongruous

07-31-2006, 05:05

The international community (read the UN) should really have sent in a millitary force (leave out Britain, France, US) to help the incapacitated Lebanese govt. route out Hezbollah.

Seamus Fermanagh

07-31-2006, 05:09

The international community (read the UN) should really have sent in a millitary force (leave out Britain, France, US) to help the incapacitated Lebanese govt. route out Hezbollah.

Where would they have found the needed 50k -- willing to bleed and die for Lebanon -- without the 5 permanent sec council members?

The UN has rarely opted to send its soldiers to bleed and die to right some wrong -- they prefer buffering and observation missions where the casualties are infrequent -- and I can't recall one ever that didn't involve the 5 vetoers.

Fragony

07-31-2006, 07:58

Hezbollah simply can't lose. If they win(which is unlikely) they are heroes, and if they lose they are martyrs, I think that the more beaten up Hezbollah is the more dangerous they are. The only way Israel can win is by taking the higher moral ground, and their behaviour (wether it was a mistake or not does not matter, the world already made up their mind) this weekend makes that kinda hard.

Husar

07-31-2006, 09:37

No hezbollah thinks that by hiding among civilans the civilians will blame the attackers and they seem to be correct. Do you really think the Israelis believe they can convince people their in the right by killing them? The Israelis lose with ever civilaian death. Its hezbollahs only hope.
Hezbollah is right there and the civilians are as well. Killing 20 civilians to get one Hezbollah fighter is simply wrong. There is no need to fire into cities to get them. I doubt there are many civilians around those rocket pods and bombing them would eliminate the thread on Israel. But bombing some city building, killing 3 Hezbollah guys who are currently no threat and 10 or more civilians is just a crime. Where are Israel´s elite sniper teams? Are they afraid? Why use explosives against small numbers of enemies in a city full of civilians?:no:

Ironside

07-31-2006, 09:46

Do you ever wonder if Israel is tired of playing the "enemy, but no state" game, and they knew Hezbollah would end up taking command in Lebanon out of all this... flush them out in the open, then go get them?

Do you honestly think that Hizbollah wouldn't maintain a large core that operates the same way as now, even if taking considerble power? And it's very bad for the Isrealis if Hizbollah ends up in power, as that means that the Libanese expects another Israeli invasion anyway.

A strong UN force guarding the border (preferbly with some very mobile Syrian units with non-Syrian command... :sneaky: ) or the destruction of Hizbollah (unlikely) is the only thing that can save this from a complete failure (preferbly both), continuing the violence there for a long time.

Pannonian

07-31-2006, 13:17

Hezbollah is right there and the civilians are as well. Killing 20 civilians to get one Hezbollah fighter is simply wrong. There is no need to fire into cities to get them. I doubt there are many civilians around those rocket pods and bombing them would eliminate the thread on Israel. But bombing some city building, killing 3 Hezbollah guys who are currently no threat and 10 or more civilians is just a crime. Where are Israel´s elite sniper teams? Are they afraid? Why use explosives against small numbers of enemies in a city full of civilians?:no:
Because Israel does not care about Lebanese casualties. They've built up a foundation myth of poor little Israel surrounded by a sea of enemies, meaning the people in neighbouring countries are by default enemies, and therefore it doesn't matter how many of them die to further the Israeli cause. Note that Israel has recently had second thoughts about this, not because of the 400+ Lebanese dead (mostly civilians), but because their offensive wasn't going as well as expected.

Geoffrey S

07-31-2006, 13:34

Then whats the solution? The more Israel fights the more it helps Hezbollah.
Ideally Lebanon would take care of Hezbollah itself, with strong UN (military) support. I'm hoping this is the goal the Israeli government is aiming for, because the Lebanese government needs to play some active part in taking down Hezbollah for any such action to have success. If only for the sake of appearances among the Lebanese people.

The government doesn't have that kind of military power, which is why the UN must get involved before Israel damages the region even more and public support turns against the Lebanese government.

Do you ever wonder if Israel is tired of playing the "enemy, but no state" game, and they knew Hezbollah would end up taking command in Lebanon out of all this... flush them out in the open, then go get them?
If so, I find the demolition of a promising sovereign state a remarkably distasteful method for the Israelis to use to destroy Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is right there and the civilians are as well. Killing 20 civilians to get one Hezbollah fighter is simply wrong. There is no need to fire into cities to get them. I doubt there are many civilians around those rocket pods and bombing them would eliminate the thread on Israel. But bombing some city building, killing 3 Hezbollah guys who are currently no threat and 10 or more civilians is just a crime. Where are Israel´s elite sniper teams? Are they afraid? Why use explosives against small numbers of enemies in a city full of civilians?
Hiding behind 20 civilians to protect one Hezbollah terrorist is better, then?

Your statement about bombing the rocket launchers is nonsense. If it were that easy, that clear-cut, do you really think the Israelis would be bombing appartment buildings?

Don Corleone

07-31-2006, 14:31

I think you missed my point, Ironside. Geoffrey got it. Until now, Hezbollah has been fleeting and darting, very difficult to pin down. With the power of being in charge comes the vulnerability of staying in one place. I didn't mean to say that being in charge would make Hezbollah more humane and abandon their tactics of firing rockets & mortars or letting off bombs in marketplaces. I meant that Israel wouldn't mind seeing Hezbollah taking over Lebanon, because then they would be a presence the Israelis could actually see and attack.

I'm not saying the Israelis are playing that game, I'm raising the possiblity and asking you all if you think that's a crazy idea or not. As Geoffrey says, if they are, they should be ashamed of themselves.

I'm finding the whole Qana bombing very difficult to stomach. I don't know what Israel wants out of the Lebanese non-Hezbollah folks. They keep distributing fliers saying "Get out", then they bomb highways and the refugee trains of cars trying to get out. But if you stay, they bomb you too. I understand Israel's desire to end Hezbollah, but they're going off the ranch even in my book. If you're an innocent Lebanese, there's not much you can do, you're damned if you leave and damned if you stay.

Don Corleone

07-31-2006, 14:34

Because Israel does not care about Lebanese casualties. They've built up a foundation myth of poor little Israel surrounded by a sea of enemies, meaning the people in neighbouring countries are by default enemies, and therefore it doesn't matter how many of them die to further the Israeli cause. Note that Israel has recently had second thoughts about this, not because of the 400+ Lebanese dead (mostly civilians), but because their offensive wasn't going as well as expected.

I don't think it's a myth, but it doesn't make what Israel is doing right in any case. There are 3 invasions and countless border skirmishes to suggest the theory of Israel extinction is more than a 'myth' as you put it. They are surrounded by a sea of people that will not be happy until they are all destroyed and Israel is just a chapter in a history book. That still doesn't give Israel the right to be so indiscriminate about civilian casualties. By the same token, Hezbollah is playing this perfectly, much like the Viet Cong. If you want your sniper/bomber to stay alive and safe, hide him in plain sight.... in a crowd of innocent civilians.

Geoffrey S

07-31-2006, 15:54

I'm finding the whole Qana bombing very difficult to stomach. I don't know what Israel wants out of the Lebanese non-Hezbollah folks. They keep distributing fliers saying "Get out", then they bomb highways and the refugee trains of cars trying to get out. But if you stay, they bomb you too. I understand Israel's desire to end Hezbollah, but they're going off the ranch even in my book. If you're an innocent Lebanese, there's not much you can do, you're damned if you leave and damned if you stay.
That pretty much sums up my views on the matter. Israel or Hezbollah, whatever the case it's pretty damn tough being a civilian in south Lebanon right now.

x-dANGEr

07-31-2006, 16:01

It won both.

Ironside

07-31-2006, 22:48

I think you missed my point, Ironside. Geoffrey got it. Until now, Hezbollah has been fleeting and darting, very difficult to pin down. With the power of being in charge comes the vulnerability of staying in one place. I didn't mean to say that being in charge would make Hezbollah more humane and abandon their tactics of firing rockets & mortars or letting off bombs in marketplaces. I meant that Israel wouldn't mind seeing Hezbollah taking over Lebanon, because then they would be a presence the Israelis could actually see and attack.

Like Hamas? And they're still much "easier" to take out than a Hizbollah governing Libanon... Sure after 20 years or something of leaving them more or less alone, it's starting to get effective.

The current command structure of Hizbollah and Hamas is quite flexible and the leaders is also very good at hiding, making it impossible to cripple the entire organisation in one blow without exellent intel. And most likely will most of the military wing stay out of official posts. As long as there's a pressure or a very real threat it will stay that way.

My point is that it's a poor idea even from a Machiavellian perspective, althuogh appearently I didn't formulate myself good enough earlier.

Lemur

07-31-2006, 22:55

Here's a letter (http://judeoscope.ca/article.php3?id_article=0429) from a Lebanese Shia about the subject of this thread. Very calculated, very hard to fight against. (Nice to see you back, Gawain. It's just not the Backroom without ya.)

I lived until 2002 in a small southern village near Mardshajund that is inhabited by a majority of Shias like me. After Israel left Lebanon, it did not take long for Hezbollah to take have its say in other towns. Received as successful resistance fighters and armed to the teeth, they stored rockets in bunkers in our town as well. The social work of the Party of God consisted in building a school and a residence over these bunkers! A local sheikh explained to me laughing that the Jews would lose in any event because the rockets would either be fired at them or if they attacked the rockets depots, they would be condemned by world opinion on account of the dead civilians. These people do not care about the Lebanese population, they use them as shields, and, once dead, as propaganda. As long as they continue existing there, there will be no tranquility and peace.

Geoffrey S

07-31-2006, 23:52

Which again confirms that the side that loses is always the Lebanese population.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

08-01-2006, 00:04

Very lucid, and since everything is in blast proof bunkers anyway bombing is having 0% military effect.

Since we knew about the bunkers presumably the IDF did as well, so are they stupid or do they just not care?

Quietus

08-01-2006, 06:05

You know as well as I do that they could infict a hell of a lot more damge than this if they wanted to. But a Nuclear Bomb is not practically and politically possible.

The only ones who gain by civilian deaths on either side is hezbollah I agree, but most of the civilian deaths are caused by Israel's military. By that logic, Israel is actively helping out Hezbollah. No, their strategy was to inflict as much pain as possible so Lebanese will hate Hezbollah. It simply backfired since the majority of Lebanese are now rallying for Hezbollah.

Last I've read, Lebanese authorities peg civilian deaths to about 750. If I = 1 civilian, then:

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No hezbollah thinks that by hiding among civilans the civilians will blame the attackers and they seem to be correct. Do you really think the Israelis believe they can convince people their in the right by killing them? The Israelis lose with ever civilaian death. Its hezbollahs only hope.
1) If the Hezbollah are inside Israel and hiding in an Israeli building with Israeli citizens, I doubt the Israeli military will simply bomb the building just like what happened in Qana.

2) Yet they continue to blast indescriminately both civilians and infrastructure. Why not minimize civilian casualties then?

Gawain of Orkeny

08-01-2006, 07:12

But a Nuclear Bomb is not practically and politically possible

Or needed. Do you have a point?

I agree, but most of the civilian deaths are caused by Israel's military. By that logic, Israel is actively helping out Hezbollah. No, their strategy was to inflict as much pain as possible so Lebanese will hate Hezbollah. It simply backfired since the majority of Lebanese are now rallying for Hezbollah.

Thats a pretty stupid plan. Lets kill them and blame hezbollah. Hezbollah knew from the start that this would happen. The Israelis could have killed a hell of a lot more civilians if that was their goal. You do realise that hezbollah is commiting war crimes by using civilians as human shields .

If the Hezbollah are inside Israel and hiding in an Israeli building with Israeli citizens, I doubt the Israeli military will simply bomb the building just like what happened in Qana.

So its your position they knew the civilians were there?

Yet they continue to blast indescriminately both civilians and infrastructure. Why not minimize civilian casualties then?

This is propaganda. Its certainly not indiscriminate or again many more would be dead. Their doing their best to avoid civilian casualties. I know 600 sounds like a lot of people but its really a realitively low number considering the fire power Israel has. Again Hezbollah killed 241 marines with one bomb and its only regret is they didnt kill more.

Franconicus

08-01-2006, 09:33

Excellent Thread, Gawain! :2thumbsup:

Sad topic, though.

Who will win and who will loose?

Hisbollah:
Win; They have casualties, but they will stay. The support from the people in Lebanon increases, same with the other Shiit countries. Israel and the US will be weakened. If there will be a neutralized zone - what a nice target for Hisbollah.

Israel:
Looses! Again civilians are dying and the numbers of rocket attack is not decreasing. Furthermore the Israelian army demonstrates once more that it might be the best of the world but that it fails if it has to fight against terrorists or demonstrants. This obvious helplessness of the Israelians will encourage the terrorists and there is little hope for another peace plan.

Palestinians:
Looses, as far as they are not obsessed by destroying Israel. There is no hope for a peace.

Libanon:
Looses; getting unstable, Hisbollah and Syria will get more influence.

UN:
Disaster; Israel can attack a UN patrol without a consequnce. It demonstrates once more that the UN is helpless as a newborn child if the US wants them to be.

US:
Disaster; Bush cannot influence Israel anymore. I think he sees that the operatiojs lead to nothing but he cannot say this because Israel does exactly the same as the US; furthermore, Israel demonstrates that the US approach of fighting terror with bombs does not work.
I think that most of the Shiits see the US as enemy, much more than before. This could also increase the problems in Iraq.
Maybe the Shiits in general identify the US and Israel as enemy. Think what will happen if the US sends troops to southern Libanon to ensure peace!

Syria:
Winner; did nothing; to get an agreement with Hisbollah the US and Israel will have to negotiate with Syria. Furthermore, the weaker the Libanon, the bigger the influence of Syria.

Iraq:
The Shiits will be more polarized and will be more anti-Israel and maybe anti-US. This could increase the terror; however, this could lead to anti-Israel politics of the Iraqi government. What will the US do then?

EU:
Is the only neutral force and can help the negotiation.

Tribesman

08-01-2006, 09:57

This is propaganda. Its certainly not indiscriminate or again many more would be dead.
yes its certainly not indiscriminate , 4 tank rounds at short range into a UN post is not indisriminate , a wire guided missile into a mini-bus of women and kids is not indiscriminate , laser guided bombs onto an army barracks is not indiscriminate , precision weaponry obliterating a civil defence headquarters is not indiscriminate .........it just goes on and on .......ambulances , UN convoys .......
You defend the indefensible gawain , as usual .

Quietus

08-02-2006, 07:10

Or needed. Nuclear bomb is physically possible but not politically or practically possible, sure they can do a lot more damage as you said (but only physically).

Qana's obviously the threshold they are trying to avoid, since it was Rice who pressured Olmert on that 48-hour ceasefire after the incident.

Do you have a point? In the greater scheme of things concerning the whole universe, no, nothing that I'm aware of.

Thats a pretty stupid plan. Lets kill them and blame hezbollah. Hezbollah knew from the start that this would happen. The Israelis could have killed a hell of a lot more civilians if that was their goal. I said they intend to inflict as much collective pain as (Politically and Practicallly) possible so the Lebanese blame Hezbollah.

They blast everything wrecklessly and call any resultant civilian deaths as "collateral damage". For example, they bomb out bridges and roads. How are civilians supposed to escape when the bombs are falling and paths are wrecked and mangled?

You do realise that hezbollah is commiting war crimes by using civilians as human shields. If Hezbollah commits war crimes by using Israelis as human shields, would the Israeli military keep firing away? No.

So its your position they knew the civilians were there? They didn't check whether there's civilians inside, so the Israeli military's knowledge whether there's civilians inside is moot.

As an analogy, it's like throwing a grenade in the bathroom without checking if someone is inside. You're saying is it my position that they knew someone is in the bathroom? 1) They didn't check 2) They threw the grenade anyway. 3) They say didn't know there were people inside.

Also the casualties came mostly from aerial bombardments. The UN peacekeepers (who were bombed) for example phoned their Israeli counterparts 10 times, that the bombardments are perilously close to their well-known and well-marked building/position.

This is propaganda. Its certainly not indiscriminate or again many more would be dead. Their doing their best to avoid civilian casualties. I know 600 sounds like a lot of people but its really a realitively low number considering the fire power Israel has. It is 750 at least. A lot are trapped inside rubbles. They just pulled out another 50 or so. It is NOT relatively low, since in 21 days or so of fighting, the Hezbollah are still standing firm.

Again Hezbollah killed 241 marines with one bomb and its only regret is they didnt kill more. Hezbollah's not civilian.