View Full Version : Report: North Korea Conducts Nuke Test
Proletariat
10-09-2006, 04:27
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=2543503
SEOUL, South Korea Oct 8, 2006 (AP)— South Korean government officials said North Korea performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test Monday, the South's Yonhap news agency reported.
South Korean officials could not immediately confirm the report.
South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun convened an urgent meeting of security advisers over the issue, Yonhap reported.
The North said last week it would conduct a nuclear test as part of its deterrent against a possible U.S. invasion.
Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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Now what?
discovery1
10-09-2006, 04:29
We wait for the siesmic test results.
The North said last week it would conduct a nuclear test as part of its deterrent against a possible U.S. invasion
Wouldn't that make it more likely for the U.S. to invade?
Proletariat
10-09-2006, 04:37
We wait for the siesmic test results.
South Korea's intelligence agency has detected a 3.58-magnitude seismic tremor, a foreign ministry spokesman said.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20548721-2703,00.html
Divinus Arma
10-09-2006, 04:56
Now what; indeed.
Wonder how long before the increased sanctions take place. Also curious as to what the reaction in Beijing and Moscoq will be. If NK is really being their rebellious little brother I hope for strong language and action from these two powers.
Something tells me China would've known about this. I don't think ole Kim can take a leak without approval from the PRC.
DemonArchangel
10-09-2006, 05:31
Apparently China had 20 minutes advance warning from the North Koreans (they promptly told the Japanese and Americans).
Samurai Waki
10-09-2006, 06:04
China isn't quite in cohesion with North Korea anymore. So I think they are trying to distance themselves a bit, it shows a good sign that China told the US and Japan promptly that they want nothing to do with this, especially if they were only given a 20 minute heads up as well.
Devastatin Dave
10-09-2006, 06:05
Call Kofi Annan, he's out only hope!!!:laugh4:
We wait for the siesmic test results.
South korea has confirmed it there was a large tremor at the time that north korea said it happened http://www.comcast.net/news/index.jsp?cat=GENERAL&fn=/2006/10/09/494716.html . An invasion is unlikely, as even conservative estimates are that 1 million people will die within the first 24 hours of a war. War with North Korea would bring death tolls that could come close to WWII figures. Whats more likely are sanctions and if neccessary you could always cut off their food imports, cruel but better then any war. The real question is how long will it take for Japan and South Korea to go nuclear now......... The world has certainly changed in just a few short hours.
________________
Speak softly and carry tactical nukes.
BigTex
Ridicolus
"Hilary Clinton is the devil"
~Texas proverb
Devastatin Dave
10-09-2006, 06:11
http://michellemalkin.com/archives/images/maddykim.jpg
Samurai Waki
10-09-2006, 06:18
Call Kofi Annan, he's out only hope!!!:laugh4:
https://i39.photobucket.com/albums/e177/Wakizashi1985/kofiun.jpg
KOFI AWAAAAAAYYYYY!!!!
BigTex: It seems unlikely that Japan or SK would need to go nuclear, seeing as that both countries have a strong American Presence. If Japan and SK are attacked with Nukes, its almost 100% Assured, that they'll have a Response from us, the strongest Nuclear Nation in the world.
discovery1
10-09-2006, 06:24
Japan already has vast nuclear capability. They could probably put one together a month or two, and have a very good missile ready within a year. Indeed, I would not be surprised if they could put one together in secret.
https://i39.photobucket.com/albums/e177/Wakizashi1985/kofiun.jpg
KOFI AWAAAAAAYYYYY!!!!
BigTex: It seems unlikely that Japan or SK would need to go nuclear, seeing as that both countries have a strong American Presence. If Japan and SK are attacked with Nukes, its almost 100% Assured, that they'll have a Response from us, the strongest Nuclear Nation in the world.
Japan has already said they would put together a bomb if North Korea went nuclear. A strong US presence is nothing, a drop in the bucket. North Korea has the 4th largest army in the world, we only have 100,000 troops in South Korea, and very few marines in Japan. A Nuclear North Korea will cause alot of proliforation. While we may have the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons ever assembled. While we have some ICBM's that carry 32 seperately targetable warheads each fully capable of reducing a modern city to rubble. While we have enough bombers with nuclear weapons to carpet bomb the Korean peninsula several times over. It doesnt change the fact that it only takes a push of a button and 10 minutes later hundreds of thousands of South Koreans or Japanese would vanish from existance. Japan and South Korea will go nuclear, its just a matter of when.
____________
Speak softly and carry tactical nukes.
BigTex
Ridicolus
"Hilary Clinton is the devil"
~Texas proverb
So are you guys envisioning Japan getting rid of Article 9 in its constitution and then creating a true military instead of the self defense force? So long as Japan has naval and air superiority over NK they are safe.
As for them going nuclear, is there a legal way for them to do it? I'd rather the US not have to choose between sanctions on Japan or again having a double standard with nuclear weapons for our buddies but not for anyone else.
Oh no. This is very bad indeed.
Now what indeed.
Will there be a war?
America Confirms Seismic Tremors (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061009/ap_on_re_as/us_nkorea)
*GULP*
I just realized that if North Korea fixes the problems with it's ICBMs then my sunny Honolulu is well within range:furious3:
discovery1
10-09-2006, 07:30
Hmmm
Sanctions will follow, surely.
I bet most of our nukes are pointed at N Korea and will be while it is still a force. Should war break out the N Koreans would have to be destroyed within the first few minutes
Yes, spmelta Japan may well change its constitution. It may even not, and simply build nukes in secret. Actually, I beat they could get away with openly having nukes. Just use them in the kill vehicles of a missile defense system.
Geoffrey S
10-09-2006, 07:39
Sanctions and bomb the crap out of the place; don't bother with the occupying part. If confirmed as a true nuclear test, this is at the very least one step too far and should not be tolerated in any way.
I doubt sanctions will hjave much effect though, NK seems detirmined to go nuclear, and sanctions just make them more detirmined - the answer is that no country should have nuclear weapons, but thats never going to happen :2thumbsup:
Well, this is a most interesting development. It may give weight to NK in the diplomatic sphere, though it has likely pissed a lot of people off, possibly including their only remaining ally, China.
Either way, they've made a tactical error in not doing the test properly, that is notifying people well in advance and making them watch.
Sanctions and bomb the crap out of the place; don't bother with the occupying part. If confirmed as a true nuclear test, this is at the very least one step too far and should not be tolerated in any way.
And sacrifice hundreds of thousands, even millions of South Koreans and Japanese, as their cities are turned to glass because of your campaign?
Americans, when will you learn to think about consequences for a change?
discovery1
10-09-2006, 08:00
If the North Koreans attack us then I say go all out immediately. Barring that force is not an option any rational person would consider.
Geoffrey S
10-09-2006, 08:00
And sacrifice hundreds of thousands, even millions of South Koreans and Japanese, as their cities are turned to glass because of your campaign?
Americans, when will you learn to think about consequences for a change?
Hate to break it to you, but I'm not American. Stereotypes giving you trouble, are they?
Right now North Korea has the bomb. It doesn't yet have longrange missiles equiped with said weapon; there is still time to decisively strike the nation before Japan and South Korea can be held hostage. But whatever happens, North Korea should not be allowed to get away with this under any circumstances whatsoever. You talk of consequences, what do you think those will be of North Korea keeping its neighbours under the barrel of a gun all the time? No, in this case there must be action and it must be now.
Sanctions and bomb the crap out of the place; don't bother with the occupying part. If confirmed as a true nuclear test, this is at the very least one step too far and should not be tolerated in any way.
Thats insane, thats simply crazy. You can't bomb North Korea, it will result in total war. This isnt Iraq either a build up of force would mean invasion by Nk also. At this present time quite honestly there's nothing really holding the North Koreans at bay, a war with North Korea would mean the south is steamrolled by the north korean army. If there was a war, it isnt just a bombing campaign its about crushing the north and reunifing the korean peninsula, because after the millions are dead, after the once beautiful dmz is destroyed, after the entire peninsula is reduced to a burning war zone. The least we could do is this time finish what started 50 years ago and unify it.
Americans, when will you learn to think about consequences for a change?
You may want to note the person you quoted is from Holland. Which would be why the person isnt thinking hard about the consequences of a war. Europe shouldn't be alloud much of a voice in what happens quite honestly, unless they also will commit a a few hundred thousand troops to defend the dmz. Also keba south korea is a beautiful example of what the consequences are of US intervention, a thriving democratic country.
________________
Speak softly and carry tactical nukes.
BigTex
Ridicolus
"Hilary Clinton is the devil"
~Texas proverb
Avicenna
10-09-2006, 08:24
Uh-oh.
Falling stock, possible falling out, and all the while I'm in striking distance.
Uh, sorry about that comment, I've seen a large number from Americans and assumed incorrectly. Sorry, again.
Intervention, yes, however, it's a lose-lose situation. Anyone attacks, the losses would be massive, add to that that the chances of victory are exceptionally low, the NK have been preparing for that kind of event for decades.
Now, how do you think they will respond to an attack on that scale? First, they let the troops into their country, fighting as they do, and thereby disabling enemy nuclear capabilies, then unleashing their own, either on cities of Japan and South Korea or on the troops, depends on what their mood is. In either case, millions die, countries are reduced to glass, and successful democracies dissapear as they are atomized, along with their populations. NK will lose, but, in the end, they have victory.
Europe will never get involved. Individual countries may become involved, but most just won't risk it. Unlike the US populace, the European isn't as easily motivated. My country's population objected to sending a unit to train soldiers in Afghanistan. Most in Europe see no point in sending troops there, for the simple reason that it doesn't concern them, it is far away, and NK will anyway be in a shouting (possibly shooting) match with the US and China. If the three destroy each other, then so much the better. Europe will not get involved.
Any attack on NK will result in failure, and worse, will result in massive civilian casualties. Air strikes would be pointless, anyone with half of a brain would know that an air strike might come, so they're likely keeping their missiles buried so deep that no bomb can make it. There is little else to traget, the sancions have seen to that.
South Korea was successful for different reasons. It wasn't ravaged by war, the populace was liberated, and it saw itself as liberated from Japanese oppression. The liberators were welcomed, and their ways were emulated. However, had there not been that element of liberation there would be no real effect. I'm not sure how the NK feel.
No-ones fining no goddam nukes at nobody! Stop freaking out.
After dissing his biggest friend(China), the sanctions will kick in, Kim will agree to something, blah blah blah. Japan and S.Korea don't need nukes and building them will only lead to a SE Asian style Cold war/Cuban Missile Crisis paranoia.
:hippie:
Shaka_Khan
10-09-2006, 10:23
...South Korea was successful for different reasons. It wasn't ravaged by war, the populace was liberated, and it saw itself as liberated from Japanese oppression. The liberators were welcomed, and their ways were emulated. However, had there not been that element of liberation there would be no real effect. I'm not sure how the NK feel.
Actually, South Korea was heavily ravaged by the Korean War.
I actually meant prior to the Korean war. By that time, it was already a thriving democracy.
lanky316
10-09-2006, 10:53
With the occasional threats and being a part of "the axis of evil" NK are perfectily entitled to try and defend themselves. The key to being a nuclear power is that it does act as a deterent to possible warmongers and that just the threat should be enough to maintain peace. Everyone knows if you use them the repercussions on you will be VERY severe since I can't see any nation using nuclear weapons being received well.
Let's not get too far to a "we're allowed them but you're not" mentallity.
Proletariat
10-09-2006, 11:01
Unless a country's government is amenable to it's people, I'd rather them not have a sling shot for 'national defense'
Major Robert Dump
10-09-2006, 11:14
Hey, maybe I'll be seeing some of you on the Korean Peninsula. I'll bring some cookies.
I actually meant prior to the Korean war. By that time, it was already a thriving democracy.
Study some history of both Korea's before making certain statements.
Where do they get the money from, apparently they don't need the aid that south korea gives them. Hunger is a much more effective weapon of mass destruction, no need for military intervention. Starve some sense into them, eat nuke.
With the occasional threats and being a part of "the axis of evil" NK are perfectily entitled to try and defend themselves. The key to being a nuclear power is that it does act as a deterent to possible warmongers and that just the threat should be enough to maintain peace. Everyone knows if you use them the repercussions on you will be VERY severe since I can't see any nation using nuclear weapons being received well.
Let's not get too far to a "we're allowed them but you're not" mentallity.
This is precisely why countries such as NK, Iran and possibly even Iraq (if they had had the opportunity) want to obtain nuclear arms. Basically as a deterrent to any US led invasion. I'm no expert on this but I am sure that if the Ba'athists had posessed such weapons, up to the standard of i.e. India or Pakistan perhaps, before the invasion of Iraq, then the US would not have invaded. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not a member of the Kim Jong-il fan club, and I can see why the US would be concerned about enemies/potential enemies gaining such weapons.
now what?
now nothing. boths sides probably don't want to escalate. n. korea doesn't want to be nuke by the u.s so they won't attack and the u.s. won't attack n. korea because it's already involved in two regional wars and can't afford a third in terms of manpower or international reputation. the u.s. has coexisted with much stronger enemies having the bomb [ussr, china] and being a threat to the u.s. and its allies, it will coexist with the n. koreans. that is unless either side does something foolish.
the u.s. made a diplomatic threat and it wasn't credible. we threatened sanctions on a country where millions suffer and have died for the whims of the dictatorn and threatened to make them an international pariah when they already are one. we threatened military action when they know our hands our tied elsewhere, where chinese action is the big unknown, and where they knew there wasn't a huge public outcry for any type of military action against them domestically or internationally. the u.s. diplomatic threat was never credible and they called the bluff.
so we fold and move away. i'm sure we'll add more sanctions and there will be strong diplomatic protests by the rest of the world but nothing will change. except that the global perception of american power will change. and iran will almost certainly not give up its nuclear research now, and that every two bit, tin pot dictator and terrorist group will conclude that the n. koreans stood up to the u.s. and won and so why should they try it too.
Big King Sanctaphrax
10-09-2006, 13:24
Most in Europe see no point in sending troops there, for the simple reason that it doesn't concern them, it is far away, and NK will anyway be in a shouting (possibly shooting) match with the US and China. If the three destroy each other, then so much the better.
Yep, we're all Machiavellian robots down here in Europe. I'm sitting here right now salivating over the thought of a massive nuclear conflict. Hell, I might buy a high-def TV just so I can see those Korean cities get toasted in more detail.
If you seriously believe that the majority of Europeans don't care about what is going on, then you need to alter your perspective. If we don't get involved in any military intervention in the area (which there isn't going to be anyway, for the reasons outlined above), it won't be out of some crazy desire to see China, N. Korea and The US take each other out.
Aren't you polish Keba? That a popular opinion there in the east? Just curious.
With the occasional threats and being a part of "the axis of evil" NK are perfectily entitled to try and defend themselves. The key to being a nuclear power is that it does act as a deterent to possible warmongers and that just the threat should be enough to maintain peace. Everyone knows if you use them the repercussions on you will be VERY severe since I can't see any nation using nuclear weapons being received well.
Let's not get too far to a "we're allowed them but you're not" mentallity.
Care to guess what the stated goal of North Korea is regarding South Korea? Don't be so sure that North Korea's aim is only for defense or a deterent.
Yep, we're all Machiavellian robots down here in Europe. I'm sitting here right now salivating over the thought of a massive nuclear conflict. Hell, I might buy a high-def TV just so I can see those Korean cities get toasted in more detail.
If you seriously believe that the majority of Europeans don't care about what is going on, then you need to alter your perspective. If we don't get involved in any military intervention in the area (which there isn't going to be anyway, for the reasons outlined above), it won't be out of some crazy desire to see China, N. Korea and The US take each other out.
I merely speak from experience ... most people here just don't care. And those that do, well ... their stances are best left unsaid (I actually did say them, as in let them kill each other). It's far away and doesn't concern them.
As to the Machiavellian attitude, hey, that's politics for you. I personally fall into the first category. The NK development of nukes means nothing, and changes nothing. Time solves all problems, and NK will collapse eventually.
Study some history of both Korea's before making certain statements.
I was refering to South Korea, and IIRC, that country was formed in 1948, two years prior to the war, as a democratic republic, done under the supervision of the US, in accordance to the treaties signed with the Soviets, according to which the Soviets got the north part of the former state of Korea.
What exactly do you refer to? The excessive power in an elected official? Well, all states have this when faced with extreme circumstances. All other changes happened after the Korean War. He still was an elected official, though somewhat disputed. So what, my country had one like that as well.
EDIT: As a comment, I'm Croatian, that would be the area of former Yugoslavia, and the Balkans, rather than Eastern Europe. Local beliefs are explained above.
I was refering to South Korea, and IIRC, that country was formed in 1948, two years prior to the war, as a democratic republic, done under the supervision of the US, in accordance to the treaties signed with the Soviets, according to which the Soviets got the north part of the former state of Korea.
That is the text book answer - now what about the history of Korea before that. You claimed that it was untouched by war before the 1950 conflict - care to look into the actual history of Korea?
What exactly do you refer to? The excessive power in an elected official? Well, all states have this when faced with extreme circumstances. All other changes happened after the Korean War. He still was an elected official, though somewhat disputed. So what, my country had one like that as well.
See above - when you discover what the Japanese did to Korea come back to the discussion.
Care to take a wild guess what the stated aims of North Korea is in relation to South Korea? Would you like to take a swinging wild ass guess to how much violence is done along the DMZ each year by infliration by North Korean special forces into South Korea each year. Then there is the 40 shots fired just this weekend at a North Korean party in the DMZ.
Then try to figure out how many tunnels are under the DMZ built by the North Koreans?
lanky316
10-09-2006, 14:15
I'm intrigued... All this is going on and you're perfectly aware of this, yet the South Koreans have got no idea and aren't even TRYING to prevent these things, sounds absurd to me. Surely the sourtherners aren't stupid enough to leave things undefended and not spend in these areas?
NK have been a wee bit subtle about this nuclear power thingy up until today. I'm yet to have heard a single word about it until this test! [/sarcasm] If SK haven't been spending some money researching anti-missile defences and preparing for this possibility then there are some very naive people at the top.
KukriKhan
10-09-2006, 15:05
Now what?
Up to Seoul, in my opinion. They're the most directly impacted by this development. No need for the US to take the lead - in fact, US leadership is probably counter-productive in this case. Let the most interested parties decide.
edit: Our only message to NK should be: "If some terrorist pops a nuke anywhere, we'll know who's door to come knocking on. You'll have 48 hours to prove it wasn't you."
Don Corleone
10-09-2006, 16:04
I think Kukri-sama raises a good point regarding the distribution to rogue terrorist organizations, but whether the DRK themselves launch a nuclear missile, or they hand one off to Hizbollah is immaterial. The core problem is lack of resolve at the global level.
Has it occurred to anyone, other than me, that PRC may have known long in advance of the 20 minutes they claim? That the 20 minute ruse was orchestrated sometime back when Kim Jong-Il received permission to proceed with the test (most likely within days of the failed missile tests).
Personally, I'm more interested in what's going on in Fujian province right now. This is the province on the mainland directly across the sea from the island of Taiwan. I don't know what actually is/has gone on there in the past few days, but when I get those answers, I think they'll be very telling whether Pyongyang is acting in concert with Beijing or if they really and truly are thumbing their nose at their patrons (a theory I have a hard time swallowing).
There's also scant information on Russian activities in Vladivostock and other Pacific strategic centers.
My point? Everyone keeps assuming that China and Russia are as surprised as anyone, based simply on their word. If they really were secretly working with DRK, does anybody think they would announce it to the world?
Why has the DRK been able to develop nuclear weapons? Because of a lack of resolve from the global community, particularly the Security Council. Who has talked tough, but balked at any real sanctions or any other real penalties that might slow the DRK's nuclear developments? China and Russia.
Personally, I believe we're being tested. The next step is a very small nuclear strike by DRK into a relatively uninhabited portion of ROK. It will be described as an accident.
Don't forget folks, as Redleg pointed out, the DRK doesn't believe in the existence of the ROK. They view the South as a rogue state and worse, a front for Western imperialists. They always have. They have always called for a unification of the Korean peninsula under a communist government centered in Pyongyang, by any means necessary. In 1994, when announcing their plans for nuclear armament, they declared their desire to turn Seoul into a sea of fire. That doesn't sound like protection from the US to me.
They hate the Japanese and would be perfectly happy to kill every last Japanese they could. They believe they enjoy the sponsorship and protection of the PRC and Russia.... maybe they really do.
One thing's for sure, we'll all know more in the next 4 days. Plans like this don't table for long...
Immaterial, any launch targeting South Korean soil will provoke full retaliation. There is no way of knowing where it will hit in the short time the people with shiny red buttons will have.
If NK does make the launch you talk about, then it is likely they will trigger a nuclear war, possibly a limited one, but again, possibly not. If it is limited, then you'll get the US West Coast, China, and possibly all of the Far East gone. If it isn't a limited one ... then we're screwed.
NK's stance on SK is much like Iran's stance on Israel. They may talk the talk, as you have a habit of saying, but they don't have the power, and they don't dare to make the move. Decadent western democracies still pack a punch, a big and painful one.
They believe they enjoy the sponsorship and protection of the PRC and Russia.... maybe they really do.
More then a maybe, but think of it. China looks like a fool now, I doubt they like that position, being 'informed' at the last minute. China itselve is rapidly becomming a major power, buying foreign property (especially american) and that sort of thing, which means nothing more then that they will have to play it our way, a western collapse is just as bad for them as it is for us because of their foreign properties. Every chinese progress comes with new disadvantages globally, North Korea is more of a burden for them really, it's a real rogue state.
Don Corleone
10-09-2006, 16:19
More then a maybe, but think of it. China looks like a fool now, I doubt they like that position, being 'informed' at the last minute. China itselve is rapidly becomming a major power, buying foreign property (especially american) and that sort of thing, which means nothing more then that they will have to play it our way, a western collapse is just as bad for them as it is for us because of their foreign properties. Every chinese progress comes with new disadvantages globally, North Korea is more of a burden for them really, it's a real rogue state.
If Beijing itself views it's role and their goal as to limit the DRK's nuclear ambitions, yes, I agree they do look foolish and are probably enraged. But when has China ever shown restraint when they are truly angry about something? There are plenty of actions they could take to make it very clear to Pyongyang just how displeased they are. Until now, tough talk has been the extent of it. Announcing a halt on all foreign aid, a cessation of joint training and maneuvers, an arms embargo... China could have done any of these things in the past few years and has steadfastly refused to do so. This forces me to conclude that limiting DRK's nuclear ambitions is not really the goal of Beijing, and therefore, from where they sit, there is no egg on their face.
There are plenty of actions they could take to make it very clear to Pyongyang just how displeased they are. Until now, tough talk has been the extent of it.
Used to be brothers in arms ~;) China is still a communist country (well not really of course), this is all a rather unfortunate position for our yellow dragon, you could compare it to a muslim nation giving the finger to the palestines. China isn't pleased at all, I am sure of that, they look like complete fools.
KukriKhan
10-09-2006, 16:35
A grim scenario our Honorable Don Corleone paints. But then, every new entrant to the nuke "club" pushes us all closer to the day when nuclear devastation reigns and rains.
All the more reason, imo, to keep our (US) rhetoric simple and direct. Forget the "this is unacceptable" equivocating. The days of treating NK like a spoiled child are over. They have adult tools now, and are determined to be taken seriously. We should do so.
Let the UN do the hand-wringing and bluster it's famous for. I'm sure it will all be laid at our doorstep as being our fault, anyway.
again the answer is either everyone has nukes, or no-one, if other countries see the US and others with them, they want to have them too! but thats never going to happen, so meh :2thumbsup:
Immaterial, any launch targeting South Korean soil will provoke full retaliation. There is no way of knowing where it will hit in the short time the people with shiny red buttons will have.
If NK does make the launch you talk about, then it is likely they will trigger a nuclear war, possibly a limited one, but again, possibly not. If it is limited, then you'll get the US West Coast, China, and possibly all of the Far East gone. If it isn't a limited one ... then we're screwed.
NK's stance on SK is much like Iran's stance on Israel. They may talk the talk, as you have a habit of saying, but they don't have the power, and they don't dare to make the move. Decadent western democracies still pack a punch, a big and painful one.
North Korea's stance on South Korea is not like Iran's stance on Israel. North Korea does not want the destruction of South Korea it wants re-unification by force if necessary. There is active campaigns by both countries to re-unit under one nation.
Now what?
Up to Seoul, in my opinion. They're the most directly impacted by this development. No need for the US to take the lead - in fact, US leadership is probably counter-productive in this case. Let the most interested parties decide.
edit: Our only message to NK should be: "If some terrorist pops a nuke anywhere, we'll know who's door to come knocking on. You'll have 48 hours to prove it wasn't you."
Well it seems the South Korean's are approaching it from multiple fronts
http://www.korea.net/News/News/NewsView.asp?serial_no=20061009047&part=102
President Roh warns Pyongyang that Seoul may jettison ’sunshine policy’
Date: October 10, 2006
President Roh Moo-hyun said Monday (Oct. 9) that the South Korean government will face increasing difficulties in pushing ahead with its engagement policy towards North Korea due to North Korea’s announcement of a nuclear bomb test earlier in the day.
The president said his government is losing its momentum for continued dialogue with North Korea in the face of hard-line international calls for sanctions and pressures against the communist state.
"Under these new circumstances, the government will increasingly find it difficult to stick to its engagement policy towards North Korea," Roh said in a news conference held at his office Cheong Wa Dae shortly after his summit talks with visiting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
"South Korea may not ultimately abandon its engagement with North Korea, but objective circumstances are changing. We’ll not give up our desire for peaceful and dialogue-based settlements. Unlike in the past, we may not continue to be patient and yield to North Korea’s demands," the president said.
The president said the contents of the new "common and broad approach" towards North Korea, agreed upon during his summit with U.S. President George W. Bush last month, will inevitably be changed.
"North Korea’s (claim to have conducted a) nuclear weapon test is a grave threat to the peace and stability in Northeast Asia and on the Korean Peninsula. It also frustrated the expectations of the Korean people and the international society for a nuclear-free peninsula."
"The government will sternly and cool-headedly cope (with the situation) through close consultations with domestic political leaders and international society. The government will actively take measures to minimize the negative economic impact from North Korea’s possible nuclear-bomb test," the president said, urging the public to continue their regular lifestyles.
Roh said he will meet with domestic ruling and opposition party leaders and former South Korean presidents on Tuesday to discuss specific countermeasures against North Korea’s latest provocation.
Turning to his two-hour-long summit with Abe, Roh said he and the visiting Japanese prime minister agreed to work for future-oriented bilateral relations.
The president also said he will visit Japan at an appropriate time and continue to persuade Abe not to visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, which honors Japan’s war criminals.
"My government will continue to persuade the Japanese leader through dialogue not to visit the Yasukuni Shrine. Prime Minister Abe may find it difficult to abruptly change his political position," Roh said.
"My understanding is that Prime Minister Abe will not visit Yasukuni Shrine. Any visit he makes there could again strain bilateral relations."
The president also noted that Japan’s nuclear armament does not appear imminent, despite North Korea’s claim to have successfully test-launched a nuclear bomb.
And other news
http://www.korea.net/News/News/NewsView.asp?serial_no=20061009028&part=102
Seoul to back U.N. action on Pyongyang
Date: October 10, 2006
South Korea condemned North Korea's announcement of its first-ever nuclear test on Monday (Oct. 9), saying Seoul supports international efforts to discuss the issue immediately at the United Nations Security Council.
The presidential office of Cheong Wa Dae said that it would never tolerate a nuclear-armed North Korea, which trampled on the hopes of the international community to keep the Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons.
“It is an unacceptable provocation,” presidential spokesman Yoon Tai-young said in a statement after a National Security Council meeting. “We will cope with the situation sternly guided by firm principle.”
President Roh Moo-hyun had a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe earlier in the day. Roh is also set to meet Chinese President Hu Jintao in Beijing on Friday.
Earlier in the morning, South Korean authorities, including intelligence officers and seismologists, said that an explosion had been detected in the northeastern part of North Korea, sending out a shockwave measuring 3.5 on the Richter scale at around 10:35 a.m. (KST).
Roh called an emergency meeting of the National Security Council with security-related Cabinet ministers and top intelligence officers after North Korea made an official statement that it had carried out its first-ever test of a nuclear weapon.
The South Korean military said it was maintaining a watertight defense posture along with the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) and is considering raising its alert level to WATCHCON II (watch condition II).
The following is the full text of the statement by the South Korean government.
Statement of the Government of the Republic of Korea on the North Korean Nuclear Test
On October 9, the Korean Government detected signs suspected of a nuclear test in the Hamgyongbuk-do (province) region in North Korea, and the President presided over an emergency meeting of the security related ministers in the morning. While the meeting was going on, North Korea announced that it had successfully conducted a nuclear test, and the meeting was turned into a National Security Council meeting accordingly. The Government has decided to make public its official stance as follows.
1. Despite the repeated warnings from the ROK Government and the international community, North Korea announced that it conducted a nuclear test today. The Government will resolutely respond to the situation in accordance with the principle that it will not tolerate North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons.
2. This action taken by North Korea poses a grave threat that undermines stability and peace on the Korean Peninsula as well as in Northeast Asia. It is also an act of trampling on the hope of the international community to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue peacefully through dialogue in its quest for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
3. North Korea's conduct also constitutes a failure to meet its obligations under the September 19, 2005 Joint Statement, on which all parties of the Six-Party Talks concurred, and is in outright defiance of the UN Security Council Resolution 1695 adopted earlier on July 15. This is a provocative act that can never be condoned.
4. At the same time, through this act, North Korea has unilaterally breached and annulled the Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula that it signed with the Republic of Korea in 1991. We hereby make it clear once again that North Korea is solely responsible for any consequences arising from this situation, including the impact on inter-Korea relations.
5. We urge North Korea to immediately abandon any nuclear weapons and related programs, to return to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) system, and to faithfully comply with international norms as a responsible member of the international community.
6. Based on the ROK-U.S. alliance, our Armed Forces are fully prepared and equipped to thwart any provocation from North Korea. We warn the North to have a forthright recognition of this fact and refrain from making a misjudgment under any circumstances.
7. The Government is closely consulting with the international community concerning this matter and supports, in particular, the immediate discussion of this issue by the UN Security Council. At the same time, the Government will seek broad views on the situation from the leaders of the ruling and opposition parties as well as the opinion leaders. It will continue to coordinate countermeasures domestically and internationally and take actions in cool-headed and resolute manner.
South Korea is still dependent upon the United States for part of its defense. Seoul will be asking Washington for advice and support.
Edit: Be very careful on assuming that I think the United States should do anything immediately about North Korea having tested a nuclear weapon. As with anything on Korea - it has always been my belief that South Korea has to take the lead and the United States puts its full power in support of South Korea on any issue dealing with North Korea. But what I can not stand is the distortion of history as protrayed by some that Korea did not suffer from the effects of war. Both Korea's were brutalized by Japan for over 40 years, its men used as forced labor and slaves to the Japanese. Its women forced into slavery as sex slaves for the Japanese. The country side turned into a waste land as the Japanese stripped Korea of its natural resources. Then some forget that armed struggle that went on against the Japanese throughout the occupation of Korea by Japan.
Pannonian
10-09-2006, 17:48
If Beijing itself views it's role and their goal as to limit the DRK's nuclear ambitions, yes, I agree they do look foolish and are probably enraged. But when has China ever shown restraint when they are truly angry about something? There are plenty of actions they could take to make it very clear to Pyongyang just how displeased they are. Until now, tough talk has been the extent of it. Announcing a halt on all foreign aid, a cessation of joint training and maneuvers, an arms embargo... China could have done any of these things in the past few years and has steadfastly refused to do so. This forces me to conclude that limiting DRK's nuclear ambitions is not really the goal of Beijing, and therefore, from where they sit, there is no egg on their face.
The North Korean threat to China is the one the Chinese used to confront the west with - if the west/China do something that China/North Korea doesn't like, they'll open the borders and let the neighbours deal with the influx. Looking at Chinese preparations in Fujian to invade Taiwan is silly, since the consistent line taken by Beijing over the last decade is to avoid unrest at almost all costs, since it's bad for business. The only thing that can rile them is Taiwanese independence, since it will probably encourage non-Chinese regions like Tibet and Xinjiang to seek independence too. Barring that, the current standoff between Beijing and Taipei is acceptable to the PRC, who take the view that they can wait it out and sooner or later Taiwan will voluntarily return to the fold.
Let Seoul deal with this, but let them know that the west will back whatever they settle on, with all the resources at our disposal. Keep our noses out of it until they say we're wanted.
Don Corleone
10-09-2006, 18:00
I agree with those who say South Korea should take point on this. At the end of the day, they are the most directly affected. What I am trying to point out is the international community seems to be willing to limit South Korea's ability and will to act, in order to placate the PRC who is assumed to be a partner in limiting DRK nuclear ambitions. My point is that there is plenty of evidence that they are no such thing and we should not be telling Seoul to hold off based on what Beijing thinks any longer.
As for my statements regarding Fujian, call them foolish if you like. But if the PLA (People's Liberation Army, in many ways an autonomous body separate from the Central Committee) began new deployments there in the past few days, I would say it would discredit China's assertion that they themselves only learned 20 minutes before the test. It is entirely possible that the party officials in Beijing only learned 20 minutes before, but I cannot and do not believe that Kim Jong Il or anyone else with a say in the DRK would wipe their nose if they thought the PLA would take issue with it, let alone test a nuclear device. It is reasonable to theorize that if the PLA knew that the DRK was about to detonate a device, and that the test may lead to agressions and hostility, they would move to position themselves to start a 2nd front, to ease their Korean ally's pressure. Such troop movements earlier than 20 minutes prior to the test would indicate the top PLA brass did in fact know earlier in the cycle of events.
Banquo's Ghost
10-09-2006, 18:11
I don't know what everyone is getting wound up about.
There is no Liberal Elite in North Korea and there's no pernicious and treasonous media. I was under the impression that these were the Greatest Threat to Our Way of Life.
Just to pop in some interesting news, the French military atomic energy agency has noted that they calculate the blast to have been less than half a kiloton. If confirmed, this is so small that the test may well have been a failure - or even non-nuclear.
Before we all run around with the headless chickens screaming the end is nigh, it might be worth considering that NK is pulling a rather fast one. (I wonder if we can think of another dictator of recent times that allowed us to believe that he had what he did not....)
:idea2:
I dunno, I go away for a holiday and the world goes titsup. Can't I let you guys get on with anything without supervision?
:bounce:
Major Robert Dump
10-09-2006, 18:23
maybe they just demolished that massive derelict of a skyscraper they never finished, which so eloquently highlighted their failure as a communist military isolationist machine :laugh4: :laugh4:
ChewieTobbacca
10-09-2006, 18:30
The issue of China and Taiwan is one that many outsiders have interest in, but being a person with many family ties on both sides, I can tell you that the tension between the countries is FAR from what N.Korea/S.Korea deal with. More than 1 million of Taiwan's citizens now reside in China, doing business and what not. Increasingly, Taiwan's economic well being is tied with China. Fewer and fewer people in Taiwan are willing to fight China. Instead, in Taiwan (at least the Northern half, which consists of more educated people and thus with more ties with the Mainland), the status quo is preferred with "eventual" reunification. China sees it the same way - why attack Taiwan, when you want reunification. Why not let your political and economic clout basically lure them back in the fold?
There isn't a whole great deal of ill will between China and Taiwan, especially lately (and I was personally on both sides last month) and can tell you it isn't as big of a deal.
That being said, the N. Korea issue is a lot more tricky. I don't think China likes N. Korea having nukes, but having said that, China would prefer a N. Korea that is stable with nukes nearby than a de-stabilized N.Korea. And if any action is taken by the west or S.Korea or Japan on N. Korea, China would be more than willing to force N. Korea, in one way or another, to capitulate to Beijing's demands. The way China sees it is that a buffer zone between S. Korea and China is preferrable to a reunified Korea friendly to the west and/or Japan.
More Breaking news
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/15190745/?GT1=8618
Ser Clegane
10-09-2006, 19:37
As for my statements regarding Fujian, call them foolish if you like. But if the PLA (People's Liberation Army, in many ways an autonomous body separate from the Central Committee) began new deployments there in the past few days, I would say it would discredit China's assertion that they themselves only learned 20 minutes before the test.
Since North Korea has been talking about the planned tests for several days now and since it has been all over the press there was certainly plenty of time to move troops.
I assume that the 20 minutes advance notice for China were only about the exact timing when the test would happen.
Don Corleone
10-09-2006, 19:45
Since North Korea has been talking about the planned tests for several days now and since it has been all over the press there was certainly plenty of time to move troops.
I assume that the 20 minutes advance notice for China were only about the exact timing when the test would happen.
Well, that's a fair point, except that the North Koreans were putting the timeline at within the next month, not a couple of days.
Is it your contention that China has done anything let alone enough to curb the DRK's nuclear amibitions?
The way I see it, China is a patron, and in many ways, North Korea is a satellite state of China. Either 1) China privately allowed this test while publicly playing along with the international community or 2) they have absolutely no influence, despite their claims to having a relationship with Pyongyang.
I suspsect that it's 1. As they've actually not done anything to slow North Korea down, and have done quite a bit over the years in terms of vetoing and blocking penalties, China bears the bulk of the responsibility of a nuclear armed North Korea, even if the correct answer is 2).
Regardless of whether China wanted North Korea nuclearly armed or not, their behavior over the past decade has all but guaranteed it.
Has it occurred to anyone, other than me, that PRC may have known long in advance of the 20 minutes they claim? That the 20 minute ruse was orchestrated sometime back when Kim Jong-Il received permission to proceed with the test (most likely within days of the failed missile tests).
I totally agree. North Korea is dependant on China to prop up it's economy and military- I seriously doubt that DPRK would do anything like this without having China's approval well in advance.
Don Corleone
10-09-2006, 19:58
Thank you for the correction Xiahou, I thought it was the Democratic Republic of Korea, not the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
I will say, again, it's entirely possible for the Chinese government itself, strictly speaking, to have been ignorant of this. The Army (the PLA) operates autonomous of the People's Assembly and doesn't answer to them. While I could believe the PRC government itself may not have known in advance and endorsed North Korea's test, I cannot believe that North Korea did this without the expressed consent of the PLA brass. It just wouldn't happen.
Ser Clegane
10-09-2006, 20:08
Is it your contention that China has done anything let alone enough to curb the DRK's nuclear amibitions?
Not at all - I agree that China could have done much more, however I do not necessarily sahre the notion that China is particularly happy with what is happening now (at least not all the political leadership in China - I think it would be quite a mistake that the leadership in China - politicians as well as military leaders - share a common view regarding how North Korea should be treated).
The Chinese leadership probably was quite fond of the barking little dog that served as a neat little buffer between China and the US-ally South Korea and that from time to time gave China the opportunity to act as a mediator to calm down the barker.
I somewhat doubt that they are equally fond of having yet another neighbour that actually has nuclear weapons and that might be as esay to control anymore.
It is interesting though that China is a key player with regard to solutions to the two current nuclear threats - North Korea and Iran.
Who knows - perhaps they indeed plan to to cash in on two huge bargaining chips...
I don't understand these people who build new nuclear weapons. While most of the world is disarming itself of nuclear missiles and bombs other countries are producing them. Believe me by March next year British and American troops will be in North Korea under the orders of Bush. Or Korea/Iran will have launched missiles at Japan, South Korea and China so that they can start to build an empire in Asia. Now Japan tried to do that in WWII, perhaps WWIII isn't as far off as we would like to think.
That may sound over the top, but the North Korean governent is just a pure evil group of communists that would kill millions of people to get what they want (no offence to anybody living in North Korea).
Avicenna
10-09-2006, 20:59
Sorry to have to be the one to point it out, but your post was certainly over the top, if anything.
Sorry to have to be the one to point it out, but your post was certainly over the top, if anything.
I know. It's just showing what could happen if this issue gets out of control.
Avicenna
10-09-2006, 21:19
No, that can't happen. They wouldn't want empires anyway. Firstly, it is impossible for NK to forge one due to the extent of their military and other countries. Secondly, empires aren't profitable. Thirdly, if they did try, they'd just get obliterated.
Don Corleone
10-09-2006, 21:19
Well, the official answer from China is just do nothing and hope it gets better. Doing anything else might upset the North Koreans. And we all know how rationally they've been behaving up until now...
Are we being played, here? (http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/10/09/D8KL7AOO1.html)
Well, that's a fair point, except that the North Koreans were putting the timeline at within the next month, not a couple of days.
Is it your contention that China has done anything let alone enough to curb the DRK's nuclear amibitions?
The way I see it, China is a patron, and in many ways, North Korea is a satellite state of China. Either 1) China privately allowed this test while publicly playing along with the international community or 2) they have absolutely no influence, despite their claims to having a relationship with Pyongyang.
I suspsect that it's 1. As they've actually not done anything to slow North Korea down, and have done quite a bit over the years in terms of vetoing and blocking penalties, China bears the bulk of the responsibility of a nuclear armed North Korea, even if the correct answer is 2).
Regardless of whether China wanted North Korea nuclearly armed or not, their behavior over the past decade has all but guaranteed it.
China is in a bit a jam. It gives NK most of it's food, oil, and other various supplies that allows it to survive. The way I see it China has three options:
1. Discontinue a Supply of Resources to NK: This would cause NK to either put less money into it's military or force the current NK government to collapse.
2. China could remove the current NK leadership and replace it.
3. China could continue its shipments to NK.
1 and 2 will most likely cause a massive wave of NKs into China as their would be government turmoil. This will overpopulate China's northern regions causing trouble for the people currently living there.
3 would continue to destablize the reasons resulting in various things such as: poor relations with the West or Japan/SK starting their own nuclear program.
As you see, China is in a real jam. It should be interesting to see which course of action they chose to persue.
Devastatin Dave
10-09-2006, 21:31
Sorry to have to be the one to point it out, but your post was certainly over the top, if anything.
How is his post over the top? You realise that this is a dictator that has already starved MILLIONS of his own people. He wouldn't give two farts in the wind nuking millions more. I was there for a year (South Korea) and understand the threat just on the conventional sense. Now he has N U K E S. At this point, Matthius Julius point could be at the minimum of what could happen. I know it makes everyone feel better to talk and have warm fuzzies and pretend that North korea is no threat (see Clinton Administration, UN, EU, etc) but now we've buried our collective heads so far up our asses that we will atleast have the ability to give them a long sentious kiss goodbye. We're ####ed period. This is gonna get very bloody and if you want to weep for the innocent people who die because of the nature of warfare, there is not enough water in the ocean to be shed for the loss that is about to happen...
Now, would you like to dismiss my opinion as well as over the top?:no:
Now what? War. If we let them get away with this, we've effectively said to the world that we carry no real clout. And you can bet your ass Iran will try to repeat what North Korea has done.
you might want to get a confy chair to sit and wait on if you think the US is gonna start a war over this.....specially not now where they´re already streched thin with 2 other wars.
Seamus Fermanagh
10-09-2006, 21:34
I don't understand these people who build new nuclear weapons. While most of the world is disarming itself of nuclear missiles and bombs other countries are producing them. Believe me by March next year British and American troops will be in North Korea under the orders of Bush. Or Korea/Iran will have launched missiles at Japan, South Korea and China so that they can start to build an empire in Asia. Now Japan tried to do that in WWII, perhaps WWII isn't as far off as we would like to think.
Acquiring nuke weapons is a fundamentally rational decision on their part. All countries that have openly confirmed their possession of a nuclear arsenal are either major powers or treated with a different level of respect/fear because of the deterent value of these weapons. NK is simply trying to acquire this measure of "self defense." Do I believe they'll imolate Tokyo or Pusan anytime soon? No. But they sure want to let the USA know that they can do so if sanctions or whatever push them too far. Far cheaper and safer to dictatorial power to pursue this kind of leverage than to rebuild and open up the economy and culture.
I am more concerned about their track record of allowing sales to non-national actors who desire weapons. I do not relish the prospect of used reactor fuel being sprinkled onto a conventional explosion to add "half-life" to the party.
I would not bet your mortgage on the deployment of troops in NK on that timetable. Still, its your money to wager....
That may sound over the top, but the North Korean governent is just a pure evil group of communists that would kill millions of people to get what they want (no offence to anybody living in North Korea).
Yes, but they are not gibbering psychotics -- at least as far as I can find/read about. So are they evil enough to do such a thing? I agree that they are. Would they do such a thing unless they thought it had a large chance of success? I think not. As long as Kim Jong-Il is as sane as Daughazvili (not exactly a high benchmark I submit), I'm not overly concerned about a full up nuclear attack in/near Korea -- at least not given the current data.
Don C:
I don't think China runs NK as a puppet state, though they clearly have the most leverage there. I suspect that the PRC has had NK riddled with agents for decades -- unless their bureaucracy has addled their ability to do the obvious. Any PRC reactions/preparation for this event may well be the result of good intelligence and not necessarily a sign that they own PyongYang.
I agree that China has the power to call Kim-J onto the carpet if they really want to. They are central to this dispute. I suspect that they aren't pulling too hard on the leash because it suits their long-term interests to have the USA on edge and distracted by this crisis du jour while they continue to consolidate their influence in East Africa and their ecnomic influence throughout the Pacific Rim.
I suspect they will torpedo UN sanctions on a humanitarian basis in order to keep up the pressure on the USA, but impose whatever level of pressure they feel is necessary to keep Kim-J from threatening their own interests. An NK with a very small nuclear arsenal is, in many ways, useful to them. NK will not acquire an arsenal sufficient enough to threaten the PRC, since before it completed such a project it would cease to be.
Geoffrey S
10-09-2006, 21:47
North Korea may not use their nuclear capabiltity, but the very fact that they can hold the leverage and in the near future will add to that nuclear missiles is enough reason for firm action. As has been stated, they're part of the big boys now and cannot be treated as anything but; I'd rather see strong action sooner than later, when they will be a real threat. Strict sanctions are start, but probably not enough.
Kanamori
10-09-2006, 21:48
W/o Chinese aid, how long could North Korea sustain an assualt and occupation anywhere? If the Chinese do not cut aid if North Korea invades anywhere, then I think that we will have more and bigger problems... I have the impression that a very large percent of our enlisted troops are either serving in Iraq or Afghanistan, how many troops could we commit to South Korean aid if they invaded? Probably not be enough. It was folly to put off a draft and to have overextended our military as we have. Also, it seems that the continuation of Chinese economic growth is dependent largely on outside investors, and I don't think that they would want to risk the ire of their economic base too much. Of course, it would be foolish to pretend to know what the Chinese would do if North Korea went any farther than this. I think that this is probably a North Korean move for diplomatic power, but I'm certainly not about to rule out the possibility of a North Korean invasion.
How is his post over the top? You realise that this is a dictator that has already starved MILLIONS of his own people. He wouldn't give two farts in the wind nuking millions more. I was there for a year (South Korea) and understand the threat just on the conventional sense. Now he has N U K E S. At this point, Matthius Julius point could be at the minimum of what could happen. I know it makes everyone feel better to talk and have warm fuzzies and pretend that North korea is no threat (see Clinton Administration, UN, EU, etc) but now we've buried our collective heads so far up our asses that we will atleast have the ability to give them a long sentious kiss goodbye. We're ####ed period. This is gonna get very bloody and if you want to weep for the innocent people who die because of the nature of warfare, there is not enough water in the ocean to be shed for the loss that is about to happen...
Now, would you like to dismiss my opinion as well as over the top?:no:
The problem with NK getting nukes is a massive increase in tension. How long till a small incurssion by the NK forces sparks a retalitory incursion. While a nuked armed NK is not favorable to China, neither is a large contingent of US soldiers siting on their doorstep. The problem is China continues to prop the crazy lil Ping Pong up. IMO not only should we impose trade sanctions on NK but impose an embargo of all food exports from any country to the NK. Force China to supply more and more of the food for NK. If China wants them to stay let them starve next to them. We also need to get very tough with them, if they use nukes at any point we need to make them absolutely aware they will be turned into a pile of radioactive sand.
Yes a major problem with NK getting nukes is their open handed attitude towards terrorists and other crazies. We also need to let them know if a dirty bomb goes off somewere they wont have a very long time to prove their innocence.
______________
Speak softly and carry tactical nukes.
BigTex
Ridicolus
"Hilary Clinton is the devil"
~Texas proverb
Pannonian
10-09-2006, 22:17
The problem with NK getting nukes is a massive increase in tension. How long till a small incurssion by the NK forces sparks a retalitory incursion. While a nuked armed NK is not favorable to China, neither is a large contingent of US soldiers siting on their doorstep. The problem is China continues to prop the crazy lil Ping Pong up. IMO not only should we impose trade sanctions on NK but impose an embargo of all food exports from any country to the NK. Force China to supply more and more of the food for NK.
LOL. You're not going to be able to force China to do anything. China is a big boy, same as you, and big boys don't have the ability to force each other to do anything against their will. If you enforce sanctions against North Korea except those let through by China, China will simply allocate a certain amount of their own food to North Korea, then buy in the equivalent amount from the US for their own markets. Or they might avoid even this subterfuge and buy stuff from the US and repackage it for North Korean use. Will US farmers be able to resist Chinese green? Or European farmers, for that matter?
Major Robert Dump
10-09-2006, 22:22
The administration picked Iraq because they fool-heartedly thought it was an easy win and made sense on the cost/benefit spectrum. This administration and previous ones avoided military confrontation with N. Korea because of what it would cost us in money and lives, and instead played sanction hokey pokey which obviously accomplshed nothing, much like we did with Iraq post-gulf I.
Just out of curiousity, if Clinton had, say, launched a full scale military invasion of N. Korea in 1998, would the Republican Congress have rallied behind him or would they have said that it was unprovoked? After Liberating Iraq the first time, should the coalition and Herbert Bush have taken that big, already-mobilized army and headed on over to NK rather than starting the great military purge, which continued under Clinton?
Also, does this mean the price of RAM will increase? Dang! I need a new computer!!111
LOL. You're not going to be able to force China to do anything. China is a big boy, same as you, and big boys don't have the ability to force each other to do anything against their will. If you enforce sanctions against North Korea except those let through by China, China will simply allocate a certain amount of their own food to North Korea, then buy in the equivalent amount from the US for their own markets. Or they might avoid even this subterfuge and buy stuff from the US and repackage it for North Korean use. Will US farmers be able to resist Chinese green? Or European farmers, for that matter?
Um yes China can be forced. China is not a self reliant big boy. It lives off others to continue. We can allways increase the tariff on Chinese imported goods to get what we want. That would also have the added benefit of giving us some more green. China is not as big as the biggest kid on the block always keep that in mind.
______________
Speak softly and carry tactical nukes.
BigTex
Ridicolus
"Hilary Clinton is the devil"
~Texas proverb
Reenk Roink
10-09-2006, 22:43
Um yes China can be forced. China is not a self reliant big boy. It lives off others to continue. We can allways increase the tariff on Chinese imported goods to get what we want. That would also have the added benefit of giving us some more green. China is not as big as the biggest kid on the block always keep that in mind.
China may not be the "biggest kid", but it's big enough that the "biggest kid" can't force it's hand by any strech.
Also, the economic dependency between the two "biggest kids" is mutual...
Don Corleone
10-09-2006, 22:43
Um yes China can be forced. China is not a self reliant big boy. It lives off others to continue. We can allways increase the tariff on Chinese imported goods to get what we want. That would also have the added benefit of giving us some more green. China is not as big as the biggest kid on the block always keep that in mind.
We won't do that, because it would cause an inflationary spike that would seriously damage our economy. We should, but our leaders have no resolve, no fortitude. CNN is right, our bluff has been called and we're going to fold. We said we would not tolerate a nuclearly armed DPRK. But at the end of the day, we lack the will to do anything meaningful to ensure that it doesn't happen, and in this regard, we are no better than the Chinese. In many ways, we're every bit as to blame for a nuclear Kim Jong Il as they are, as we haven't taken any real measures to see that it didn't happen.
We won't do that, because it would cause an inflationary spike that would seriously damage our economy. We should, but our leaders have no resolve, no fortitude. CNN is right, our bluff has been called and we're going to fold. We said we would not tolerate a nuclearly armed DPRK. But at the end of the day, we lack the will to do anything meaningful to ensure that it doesn't happen, and in this regard, we are no better than the Chinese. In many ways, we're every bit as to blame for a nuclear Kim Jong Il as they are, as we haven't taken any real measures to see that it didn't happen.
I gives you pause doesnt it? History repeating itself, yada yada. :shame:
China may not be the "biggest kid", but it's big enough that the "biggest kid" can't force it's hand by any strech.
Also, the economic dependency between the two "biggest kids" is mutual...
I wouldn't say mutual. Without China, we could produce the goods here that were produced in China. I would be more expensive, but could be done.
We also import a ton of Chinese products. Good luck finding someone else to take our place.
Kanamori
10-09-2006, 23:34
But at the end of the day, we lack the will to do anything meaningful to ensure that it doesn't happen, and in this regard, we are no better than the Chinese.
Well, not really. Although other things could have been done, I don't necessarily agree that they should have, we are certainly not the ones propping up the crazy man...
ChewieTobbacca
10-09-2006, 23:40
Well we've certainly had our share of crazy men propped up ;)
Anyways, as far as forcing China to do anything - it's not going to happen because we have too many business interests (as well as many other countries in China now) and basically China is now on the big boy level, and as we've seen time and time again, this administration is not willing to challenge China over economics. Look at all the talk of currency re-evaluation - all we've said is "please think about it" and they've said "okay we'll think about it" and that's pretty much been the last couple years on that topic. Nobody is going to force a country to do anything with that economy. If we simply abandon manufacturing in China, other companies from Europe, Japan, etc. will jump in and we'll end up paying more for products, something the American consumer has shown it does not want.
Papewaio
10-09-2006, 23:54
A lot of the manufacturing plants in China are partnerships... so if you want a slice of the manufacturing profit pie you have to be friendly with China.
Australia is one of the few nations with a trade surplus to China. New Zealand has a 'special' relationship with China... dates back to the communist uprising and a Kiwi being part of the Gung Ho initiative.
Australia supplies lots of iron ore to China, it has signed a trade agreement for LPG and it will be suppling Uranium to China. The US is a place to sell goods to, but it isn't the only place. Much like Australia has many more clients who want to buy their goods.
If the US decides to not buy Chinese goods then they will be restriciting their market... the rest of the market will then hike up the prices to the US knowing that they won't have to compete with China... guess what, the best manufacturing partner for the US would be probably Mexico :laugh4:
AntiochusIII
10-10-2006, 00:05
the best manufacturing partner for the US would be probably Mexico :laugh4:Now that's a brilliant idea there!
:idea2:
Lots of hands, little jobs = cheap wages. Near the border, within the US sphere of influence = easy transportation, easier diplomatic/political control, less cultural barriers (not that they are a problem). Not a big boy = not as dangerous a partner. Illegal immigration problem = solved. The Mexicans = happy to have US dollars. Democracy = good for the moralists.
Hmm...
KukriKhan
10-10-2006, 00:33
rofl.
Maybe we should award that 700-mile border fence contract to Sicartsa (http://www.villacero.com/english/negocios_sid_sicartsa.html) . At $1.50 per hour premium pay for a Mexican steel worker (unionized, no less) and much less for the actual fence-builders, it sounds like a win-win for US & Mexico. Brilliant. :laugh4:
Papewaio
10-10-2006, 00:35
It already is being done... a lot of electronics that we get here that used to be supplied by our Vendor from San Jose is now coming from Mexico... and it is generally better quality too. :laugh4:
Strike For The South
10-10-2006, 02:28
No. We should ignore it.
KukriKhan
10-10-2006, 02:35
War? Anybody? Am I alone in thinking we should drop some bombs on Pyongyang over this?
Not today, Son. Maybe tomorrow. Let's see what happens next.
War? Anybody? Am I alone in thinking we should drop some bombs on Pyongyang over this?
Not yet. I'm getting to that point though.
I'd support cutting all trade ties and freebies (food) with North Korea and perhaps keeping a carrier in the Sea of Japan for while or something. Just to do something. Going to war over this would screw things up big time, if we weren't in Iraq or Afghanistan maybe it'd be useful but as Redleg has pointed out the North Koreas have freaking mountain bunkers and underground railroads.
DPRK has said previously said that they'd consider sanctions an act of war. I guess we might get to see whether they're bluffing or not- that's if we can actually agree on sanctions. It seems like the Russians and Chinese are planning on continuing the "let's negotiate more" obfuscation that they've used so well previously.
Papewaio
10-10-2006, 05:19
Well NK is the madman at their doorstep not just on South Koreas. So they have the largest vested interest in not getting Nuked out of the five permanent UN security members.
Also if a war was fought against NK, we would want China on our side... they would have a far easier approach then the rest of the world going through South Korea. It would also mean that NK would be fighting on two land fronts, plus the possibility of amphibous assault (much easier if we have China on our side) from both sides of the pennisula...
Samurai Waki
10-10-2006, 05:30
China sees no benefit in a Nuclear North Korea. It weakens their position in the Pacific, if all of their economic, and military adversaries go nuclear as well. If North Korea thinks China and Russia is on their side, they are sadly mistaken. A Nuclear South Korea, Japan, Philippines, and Possibly Taiwan is not good news for China. That is why China is telling everyone to hold back, and try to negotiate some sort of deal, don't think for even a second that China is doing anything because the US and China are good friends. They want this, because if everyone starts going nuclear, China can say goodbye to any hope of Dominating the Western Pacific.
Avicenna
10-10-2006, 08:02
How is his post over the top? You realise that this is a dictator that has already starved MILLIONS of his own people. He wouldn't give two farts in the wind nuking millions more. I was there for a year (South Korea) and understand the threat just on the conventional sense. Now he has N U K E S. At this point, Matthius Julius point could be at the minimum of what could happen. I know it makes everyone feel better to talk and have warm fuzzies and pretend that North korea is no threat (see Clinton Administration, UN, EU, etc) but now we've buried our collective heads so far up our asses that we will atleast have the ability to give them a long sentious kiss goodbye. We're ####ed period. This is gonna get very bloody and if you want to weep for the innocent people who die because of the nature of warfare, there is not enough water in the ocean to be shed for the loss that is about to happen...
Now, would you like to dismiss my opinion as well as over the top?:no:
You think that North Korea would try to build an empire by attacking China? Because that's part of the post I said was OTT.
Wakizashi: nuclear Taiwan and Phillippines? How?
Despite what anybody may say North Korea wants an empire. North Korea may thing as China as an ally (after all they are both communist), but China's loyalty lies with the UN and the US. If North Korea nukes another nearby country China will have no choice but to act against them through invasion and cutting off supplies.
Don Corleone
10-10-2006, 11:58
Well, it would appear that those who felt that North Korea was pursuing nuclear weapons to protect itself from a pre-emptive US strike were wrong. They want the US to allow it to continue to forge American currency (what got it US sanctions in the first place), and if we don't, they're going to start launching nuclear tipped missiles...
North Korea wastes no time in showing the true purpose behind nuclear program.... blackmail! (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,219121,00.html)
Banquo's Ghost
10-10-2006, 12:12
Well, it would appear that those who felt that North Korea was pursuing nuclear weapons to protect itself from a pre-emptive US strike were wrong. They want the US to allow it to continue to forge American currency (what got it US sanctions in the first place), and if we don't, they're going to start launching nuclear tipped missiles...
S'funny, my dyslexia must be getting worse. I read the article you posted even though it was from Fox.news, and couldn't see where it said anything of the sort. Just more bluster from the NK.
And I would really wait until we actually know what happened in that coal mine. It's not just the French, but now US officials noting that the blast was so small it may have been a failure or even a conventional explosive. Let's face it, their missile tests went really well.
Uncertainty (http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/1010/korea.html).
A US official said it could take several days for intelligence analysts to determine whether the event in an area near North Korea's border with China was an unsuccessful nuclear test, a small nuclear device or a non-nuclear explosion.
It has been suggested that while the conventional explosives used to trigger a chain reaction detonated properly, there may have been no subsequent nuclear explosion.
Officials in Japan and South Korea reported no changes in radiation levels since Pyongyang's announcement.
(My emphasis). :shrug:
R'as al Ghul
10-10-2006, 12:12
No offense Don, but wake me if some other news agency apart from FOX reports serious threats.
Reuters say:
HONG KONG (Reuters) - A day after North Korea said it tested a nuclear device and seismic sensors worldwide registered tremors consistent with a small test, the question remains: What exactly happened at that mountain site near the Chinese border?
Many scientists and most governments concerned have yet to definitively conclude whether it was a small nuclear device, a dud test of what might have been a much larger device or even a non-nuclear explosion.
So we can't even be sure it's nuclear? Yawn!!
And even if, they can't win anything by shooting one. Sure diplomacy will be more complicated but I seriously doubt any of us is threatened.
NK surely has strenghtened its position, if it's true, but nothing more, nothin less.
R'as
P.S.: Cross posted with Banquo....
Banquo's Ghost
10-10-2006, 12:23
Post removed because I caused unwitting offence. My apologies. :bow:
Don Corleone
10-10-2006, 13:28
Don't worry R'as, we're just proving that the Liberal Elite Borg Collective Treasonous Hive Mind has been activated to hunt down hapless conservatives.
:wink3:
Now when did I say any such thing? You're entitled to see things differently, and I don't remember prattling about a liberal elite, tratiorous liberals, but hey, if that's how the two of you want to misrepresent my arguments, fine.
Oh, one last thing, BG. Last I checked, the North Koreans demanding single-party talks with the US is North Korean code for "drop all sanctions against us". The sanctions got placed there in the first place due to North Korea's extensive US currency forgery schemes.
But hey, the two of you know more than anybody... there's no real threat in North Korea. It's all a big game, just like the two of you say.
R'as al Ghul
10-10-2006, 13:44
but hey, if that's how the two of you want to misrepresent my arguments, fine.
But hey, the two of you know more than anybody... there's no real threat in North Korea. It's all a big game, just like the two of you say.
I certainly didn't mean to misrepresent anything, Don and I'm quite sure it wasn't BG's intention, either.
I certainly don't know more than anybody who follows the news but we're all entitled to own opinion, aren't we?
What I'm saying is that we can't be certain what caused the seismic activities yet. Now some media agencies seem to jump to conclusion. Why is that? Does it increase sales numbers or viewer count when you report such things that instill fear? Certainly.
I find it sad that you jump at one of the first of these reports, you should know better.
Even if NK does have, let's say a dozen nukes that can reach LA, so what?
I mean, seriously, what do you expect to happen?
If they fire as much as a fart in any direction there are gonna be more than enough nukes from more than enough countries to bomb them into limbo.
(I hear the Russians would love to get rid of some nukes that are prone to contaminate their country side in a few years.)
My opinion is that the only goal of NK is to strenghten its diplomatic position.
There won't be a nuclear war in the near future if nobody overreacts but peacetalks are going to more interesting, to say the least.
I might add that I don't welcome the prospect of NK having Nuke missiles.
R'as
Ser Clegane
10-10-2006, 14:26
Actually I would be less concerned about NK directly using the nukes but rather about them further spreading the technology to
a) get cash
b) deliver a somewhat less open blow to its "enemies"
In the past NK has already shown that it does not exactly shun comitting/supporting acts of terrorism.
Of course there is the argument that if some terrorists use a kind of dirty mini-nuke, NK could be held responsible for it - but isn't the same argument altready used for Iran?
If you have aat least two possible culprits I highly doubt that we would see harsh relatiation that is often mentioned unless there is abolute 100% proof that points at source of the nuclear material
Banquo's Ghost
10-10-2006, 15:10
Now when did I say any such thing? You're entitled to see things differently, and I don't remember prattling about a liberal elite, tratiorous liberals, but hey, if that's how the two of you want to misrepresent my arguments, fine.
Oh, one last thing, BG. Last I checked, the North Koreans demanding single-party talks with the US is North Korean code for "drop all sanctions against us". The sanctions got placed there in the first place due to North Korea's extensive US currency forgery schemes.
But hey, the two of you know more than anybody... there's no real threat in North Korea. It's all a big game, just like the two of you say.
I should apologise Don. I was being flippant, in response to some posters' (not you, which is why my poor humour was misplaced) constant prattling that anyone who disagrees with the Bush administration is part of a liberal conspiracy. Sorry again. :bow:
I understood the idea that sanctions were imposed partly because the NK regime props itself up by forging dollars, but certainly not exclusively due to this. They are very naughty in a number of ways. Seeking to get sanctions lifted is not an unrealistic foreign policy aim for Kim and having people think he has the bomb makes it more likely that he will get a seat at the table. If he has, in fact, a set of damp firecrackers, no-one would be interested, and he would not get half the aid he does. Megalomaniacs get themselves into trouble over this - Saddam, against all logic, having got rid of all his WMD still postured that he might have some so he would be taken seriously. Got himself taken rather too seriously, as perhaps Kim may do.
It's certainly not a game, but if it were, it would be poker. Kim has a really weak hand, but is adept at convincing people he's got all the aces. My wider point is that people here are arguing for quite inconceivable levels of military action, developing conspiracy theories that everyone from the Chinese to the Martians are behind Kim's plans and that we all about to be murdered in our beds when in reality:
1. We don't know if the NK actually succeeded in testing a viable device.
2. They have no realistic delivery mechanism as yet.
3. They have been known to bluff us into mistakes before.
Just urging some caution on the extrapolations, that's all.
If anyone wants to think about more than paranoia, perhaps it would be wise to reflect, not on the 'Axis of Evil' but on the real danger (http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article1826286.ece) in that part of the world - which is a key 'ally' of ours.
Not only is Pakistan supplying countries with covert nuclear technology and providing safe havens for the Taleban their Secret Service is practically a fully paid up member of al-Q'eda. If islamic terrorists get a bomb, I'm pretty sure it won't be from Kim Jung-il but will have been paid for by US aid to Pakistan.
i think the u.s. has been conducting it's diplomacy the wrong way. n. korea won't listen to america. sanctions are meaningless when their only real trading partner is china, and a conventional war by the u.s. right now is out of the question and they know it. their only economic and ideological partner is china and that's where the u.s. should apply it's diplomacy. i think the reasons for the failure of chinese involvement up to the present time, is simply because the chinese don't care. so what if america throws a hissy fit over n. korea. as long as american troops aren't getting uncomfortably close to the chinese border, and as long as n. korea isn't undergoing a regime change from a communist to an ideologically more unfriendly political system, i don't think there is an incentive for the chinese to care. so we have to make them care.
the u.s. can't threaten china directly because a) they're both nuclear powers and b) are serious trading partners. but the u.s. can threaten china indirectly by promising that japan will have it's own nuclear weapons real soon. and that the chinese will have a hissy fit over because most of the senior chinese leadership lived during and suffered under the japanese occupation of the last century. as it is still a very big deal every year when the japanese PM visits the war shrine, how much more of a big deal will it be, when the world's second largest economy scraps its pacifistic constitution and develops nuclear weapons? so we can make the chinese have a vested interest in this. and all they have to do to prevent it is at the minimum 1) trade embargo of n. korea so that it implodes of its own accord or at the maximum 2) maintain neutrality in any kind of conflict between the world and n. korea with the understanding that at the resolution of the conflict, kim and his cronies will be removed, but the basic political system will remain unchanged and no foreign troops except for maybe chinese troops will stay in there after a short occupation.
Don Corleone
10-10-2006, 16:16
Well, you have a point R'as. The Washington Times (not Post) has an article this morning questioning the validity of the test. Not example a card-carrying ACLU endorsed member of the MSM conspiracy... Not such a big bang after all (http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20061009-115158-2477r.htm)
Now, while I'll agree FoxNews has a pretty strident editorial policy you may not happen to agree with, R'as, I think it's a bit far fetched to accuse them of outright fabricating stories. I have little doubt an unnamed DPRK official did in fact make such a veiled threat. The real question is on their ability to deliver, a belief in which I'm becoming increasingly skeptical.
That being said, regardless of whether North Korea actually test detonated a nuclear device this past weekend, I think we can all agree it's only a matter of (fairly short) time until they possess the capability.
As for Pakistan, I don't know that you even need to look that far. Aren't Russia and some of the other former Soviet Republics missing large amounts of fissable material? Would we ever be able to pinpoint the source of the material for a nuclear bomb? It's not anthrax... there's no way to trace it's origin, right?
As for Pakistan, I don't know that you even need to look that far. Aren't Russia and some of the other former Soviet Republics missing large amounts of fissable material? Would we ever be able to pinpoint the source of the material for a nuclear bomb? It's not anthrax... there's no way to trace it's origin, right?
My understanding is that material can be isolated by the trace elements present, which can then be used to determine which reactors and enrichment facilities the material came from. I won't post a link, I don't need my boss wondering why I'm searching Google for nuclear fallout fingerprinting. :oops:
Banquo's Ghost
10-10-2006, 16:42
As for Pakistan, I don't know that you even need to look that far. Aren't Russia and some of the other former Soviet Republics missing large amounts of fissable material? Would we ever be able to pinpoint the source of the material for a nuclear bomb? It's not anthrax... there's no way to trace it's origin, right?
Russia is certainly missing some. A while back several border soldiers were found dead with a serious lump of radioactive material (strontium, IIRC) in a carrier bag. :oops: At the official level though, any actual warheads are controlled. Fissile material alone does not a bomb make. Dirty bombs could be made with hospital waste, they don't need plutonium (which begs the question, if terrorists are so dangerous, why haven't they set off a simple dirty bomb in a city centre? No need for anything more than a bit of radioactive material and a fertiliser bomb in a car boot. Think of the panic).
In contrast, there are senior intelligence officials in Pakistan who are actively supporting al-Q'aeda and who could easily facilitate the transfer of actual materiel, if not warheads.
Yet we seem to be sanguine about Musharraf's ability (and desire) to curb these people, whilst panicking about North Korea and Iran.
ChewieTobbacca
10-10-2006, 18:10
i think the u.s. has been conducting it's diplomacy the wrong way. n. korea won't listen to america. sanctions are meaningless when their only real trading partner is china, and a conventional war by the u.s. right now is out of the question and they know it. their only economic and ideological partner is china and that's where the u.s. should apply it's diplomacy. i think the reasons for the failure of chinese involvement up to the present time, is simply because the chinese don't care. so what if america throws a hissy fit over n. korea. as long as american troops aren't getting uncomfortably close to the chinese border, and as long as n. korea isn't undergoing a regime change from a communist to an ideologically more unfriendly political system, i don't think there is an incentive for the chinese to care. so we have to make them care.
the u.s. can't threaten china directly because a) they're both nuclear powers and b) are serious trading partners. but the u.s. can threaten china indirectly by promising that japan will have it's own nuclear weapons real soon. and that the chinese will have a hissy fit over because most of the senior chinese leadership lived during and suffered under the japanese occupation of the last century. as it is still a very big deal every year when the japanese PM visits the war shrine, how much more of a big deal will it be, when the world's second largest economy scraps its pacifistic constitution and develops nuclear weapons? so we can make the chinese have a vested interest in this. and all they have to do to prevent it is at the minimum 1) trade embargo of n. korea so that it implodes of its own accord or at the maximum 2) maintain neutrality in any kind of conflict between the world and n. korea with the understanding that at the resolution of the conflict, kim and his cronies will be removed, but the basic political system will remain unchanged and no foreign troops except for maybe chinese troops will stay in there after a short occupation.
This is one move that could actually make sense. As a 3rd option, have China remove Kim himself if they so wanted to. I highly doubt that China has no connections within the DPRK that have people friendly to China that want to be in power themselves....
Europe will never get involved. Individual countries may become involved, but most just won't risk it.QUOTE]
That’s true Europe wont get involved because Europe can’t get involved.
We don’t have a unified foreign policy because some idiots decided there should be a referendum about the constitution ,remember?
[QUOTE] Unlike the US populace, the European isn't as easily motivated.
I would rephrase that in having a bit more pro human concerns and more analysis about our government’s measures.
My country's population objected to sending a unit to train soldiers in Afghanistan.
Yes and we can all see this is completely the same thing.
Most in Europe see no point in sending troops there, for the simple reason that it doesn't concern them, it is far away,
If you choose to say ludicrous things like this pls don’t generalize.
Most people here give a whole lot about foreign affairs.
A unified foreign policy doesn't need a Constitution. All it need is agreeance among the individual nations ... something you would be hard pressed to get even with the Constitution.
That Constitution is a joke, a good idea, but bad work on it. The people were right to reject it.
I would rephrase that in having a bit more pro human concerns and more analysis about our government’s measures.
I wouldn't say that. I mean that motivating Euros for any sort of war is difficult at best if it isn't of direct concern for them.
Yes and we can all see this is completely the same thing.
I merely used that to illustrate a point ... the population objects to sending a hundred policemen because they come under risk. Do you truly think those same people will send tens of thousands to certain death?
If you choose to say ludicrous things like this pls don’t generalize.
Most people here give a whole lot about foreign affairs.
Here at the .org (or do you mean Europe, hell, I'm from Europe and none of the people I've talked to care), people care. In general, from what I've heard, most simply don't care. They look on it as China's and America's problem, and that's about the extent of the care.
This is as far as I will detract this admittedly rather fascinating thread.
Just to add my two cents.
According to the Russian military, the supposedly detonated nuke, if it was, in fact a nuke, was a device between 5 and 15 kilotons ... the Hiroshima version had 12. With that, only the Russians confirm it to be greater than half a kiloton.
In other news, China has agreed to sanctions (or, at least, punitive measures), but opposes any sort of military action.
In the past NK has already shown that it does not exactly shun comitting/supporting acts of terrorism.
One other reason to stop them: NK could give the nukes to terrorists so that they can target the USA. However it could be worse: they could give them to Iran to target the USA and the UK! I can see the end of the world as we know it. For some reason the words "welcome to the planet Skaro" come to mind.
For those who don't know Skaro is the nuclear wasteland of a planet that is the home of the Daleks (evil mutants that think of nothing but extermination) in Doctor Who. I am not saying that this will happen, but it could if NK and Iran's nuclear programs go unchecked.
Pannonian
10-10-2006, 19:31
One other reason to stop them: NK could give the nukes to terrorists so that they can target the USA. However it could be worse: they could give them to Iran to target the USA and the UK! I can see the end of the world as we know it. For some reason the words "welcome to the planet Skaro" come to mind.
For those who don't know Skaro is the nuclear wasteland of a planet that is the home of the Daleks (evil mutants that think of nothing but extermination) in Doctor Who. I am not saying that this will happen, but it could if NK and Iran's nuclear programs go unchecked.
Wouldn't it be easier to get the stuff from the Pakistanis, many of whose military and scientists are closet Islamists themselves?
One other reason to stop them: NK could give the nukes to terrorists so that they can target the USA. However it could be worse: they could give them to Iran
Quite possible.
to target the USA and the UK! I can see the end of the world as we know it. For some reason the words "welcome to the planet Skaro" come to mind.
Not possible. Iran doesn't have the technology to fire a missile that would hit the UK or the US. If you mean detonating it inside our boarders, then I suppose that is possible.
Silver Rusher
10-10-2006, 19:49
Wouldn't that make it more likely for the U.S. to invade?
And have several major cities nuked? :inquisitive: :inquisitive: :inquisitive:
If you mean detonating it inside our boarders, then I suppose that is possible.
Yes that is what I mean. It would be easy, however, to research the tech so that they could be able launch their missiles at us, and of course they could easily build themselves an airforce which has the capability to drop fusion bombs. These nuclear issues need solving now before the evil and extreme countries of the world develop the tech to send out nuclear missiles to the the west. At current these countries are no real threat (they don't have the tech to send out nuclear missiles), but if they are not stopped now then within two years they will be!
Conqueror
10-10-2006, 21:19
Why do you assume that these states' leaders have a death wish?
yesdachi
10-10-2006, 21:48
NK will do whatever China tells them to do. I don’t think that NK is a lapdog or a front for China but I do think that when China says jump, NK will ask grudgingly “how high”. The thing is, NK’s antics draw attention away from other BIGGER issues we have in the area (like the trade deficit) and I don’t think China minds. China knows that the minute they pull the choke chain and say heal that NK will, but until they have to, why not let Kim play his little games and distract the US. It also gives China an opportunity to step in and handle the situation (once it becomes a situation) when the US couldn’t.
If the US is to be involved in any action it should be after, as previously noted, it is taken by SK or Japan and only when the US is asked. I do realize the US is linked to SK, especially since we have 30,000 to 100,000 troops already there, but SK has to be the ones to make the call.
:2cents:
CountArach
10-10-2006, 22:02
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=150226
The Plot thickens...
To summarise, North Korea has warned it could fire a missile with a nuclear warhead unless the United States acts to resolve its standoff with the world's newest nuclear power.
Reenk Roink
10-11-2006, 01:21
Apparently, this was a very weak "nuke"... (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061009/ap_on_sc/detecting_nuclear_tests)
CountArach
10-11-2006, 01:41
Apparently, this was a very weak "nuke"... (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061009/ap_on_sc/detecting_nuclear_tests)
The only problem with that is that they probably didn't use a great deal of their Nuclear Material in order to conserve it for something bigger.
The North Koreans aren't really known for being conservative with their resources. If they were they wouldn't have a problem feeding their population. Also, seeing as this was supposed to show how tough they are I think if anything they'd go for a larger blast.
It'd be interesting if evidence turns out that it was a fake or a failure. Would certainly make them look like reckless buffoons. Also if it turns out to be a fake or failure all it will have done is make the world hate North Korea more.
Did anyone else catch that the Russians were told 2 hours prior to the blast? They're also the only ones reporting it to be 5-15kilotons. Perhaps there was more Russo-NK parternship than Chinese assistance. Maybe the Russians reported what the bomb was supposed to be. It'd be a good reason for the Chinese to be even more pissed at the North Koreans. Just speculation though.
I'm also glad to see a lot of support especially from the Chinese for harsh action. I'm opposed to military action myself but I'm glad that with an Article 7 sanction it's still an option so it would still put additional pressure on North Korea.
I'm also glad to see a lot of support especially from the Chinese for harsh action. I'm opposed to military action myself but I'm glad that with an Article 7 sanction it's still an option so it would still put additional pressure on North Korea.
Right now the Chinese support is limited to tough talk. When they actually vote for some punitive measure maybe I'll be convinced. Til then, they could be just as easily feigning ignorance and outrage, imo.
KukriKhan
10-11-2006, 03:42
Since we have a bit of a lull in the action, while the experts decide whether that big boom was really a nuke, and the poli's try to figure out how to spank Kimmy for saying he'd soiled his own backyard,
I thought I'd try contesting the prevailing wisdom cited often in this thread that "the US is over-extended and won't invade NK", a canard gaining credence by repetition.
It might prove to be true. BUT: I don't think the powers that be in DC believe it. Especially not the civilian powers-that-be.
There are thousands of troops still state-side and in non-combat zones overseas; the country has not been war-mobilized yet; hundreds of perfectly good bombers carrying perfectly good ordnance still merely sit in their hangers and aboard aircraft carriers awaiting the call to action.
If I'm a civilian leader assessing the overall situation, I might be drooling at the prospect of trading in 2 long-term, slow-to-win insurgency ops, for one magnificent conventional, relatively quick-win war.
"Dear Iraq & Afghy: It's been good. It's been fun. But it hasn't been good fun. We gotta book; there's another wingnut in Asia to deal with. Drop us a postcard when whoever wins, wins. All the best, Rummy.
p.s. the Brits and Euro's might be here for a bit longer, but don't count on it."
Now there's plenty of military reasons to approach an NK invasion with extreme caution, and don't for a nanosecond believe that I advocate it. I'm just saying: Don't count that card out of play in this particular little poker game.
Devastatin Dave
10-11-2006, 04:52
If we go to war with North Korea, I'm going to go see the recruiter again and get back into the fight. No way am I sitting this one out, too many people I love are still there. I owe to the people of South Korea for the year of hospitality and love they showed me while I was away from my family and country. :furious3:
Samurai Waki
10-11-2006, 05:52
EDIT: Black Humour Taken out of Context. Sorry.
Papewaio
10-11-2006, 06:31
Mass murder on anyone, immigrants legal or not is not even close to funny. I suggest that you change your post before I get an email complaining about the content or a maximum of 24 hours has passed at which point I will lavish you with attention in the form of warning points.
I am only being leniant given that my assumption is that it was a black humoured joke that missed the mark.
If they are now threatening to launch missiles and other nuclear weapon then I would believe them. They may have imported the technology to be able to launch missiles over long distances, but if they have not by now then it will be impossible for anything hi-tech to get in as their cargo is been checked. However they may have developed the tech to fire over short distances. If I was living in South Korea I would evacuate and immigrate now! I think an attack on South Korea (and later on the USA and the UK) is imminent even if the USA does give in to their wishes. These dictators care little for human life (or diplomacy) and this problem is about to blow out of all proportion unless an army invades soon....
As much as it seemed a waste of money a short while ago I'm glad to have a missile defense system even as primitive as ours. I think we need to get more testing done with it pronto and deploy them all over Japan, South Korea, Alaska, and my lovely Hawaii.
Reenk Roink
10-11-2006, 14:38
It is very interesting how weak this explosion was. I do want to see if this was a nuke at all, or if it was just a bunch of conventional explosives...
Sjakihata
10-11-2006, 15:17
Japan bans (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4251110.html) import from NK
Japan bans (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4251110.html) import from NK
North Kora actually exports something?:inquisitive:
You learn something new every day. :book:
North Korea actually exports something?:inquisitive:
You learn something new every day. :book:
Nuclear technology, forged dollars, illegal drugs, special forces units, and footage of the great leader, apparently.
Seamus Fermanagh
10-12-2006, 14:40
...and footage of the great leader, apparently.
I just want a few dozen lessons with Kim's golf pro. I would LOVE to be able to card an 18 for a round of golf too.....
ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88
10-12-2006, 15:08
Nuclear technology, forged dollars, illegal drugs, special forces units, and footage of the great leader, apparently.
Nuclear Tech, of course. forged dollars, I would like some. Illegal drugs, of course. Spcial forces units, didn't know that and footage lol.
anyone would want to pay money for forged dollars or Footage is crazy. but I guess that how they do make their Money. Whatever works I guess..
Kralizec
10-12-2006, 15:31
It is very interesting how weak this explosion was. I do want to see if this was a nuke at all, or if it was just a bunch of conventional explosives...
Yup, the explosion didn't even reach 1 kiloton apparently, pointing to failure. An alternative explanation is that it's a simple uranium bomb, but that requires so much enriched uranium that it's not very likely.
I guess there are three possible options here.
1. The bomb fizzled (went nuclear but failed to sustain the chain reaction).
2. The bomb was a nuclear dud (shock wave from the explosive triggers, which failed to generate critical mass).
3. The "bomb" was in reality a conventional device.
Option 1 means that they are close, but just wasted some enriched material. Option 2 means they are further away, have some design flaws, and just wasted some enriched material. In both these cases, I wouldn't want to be a lead engineer for the program, I'm sure the Illustrious Leader will not be happy with the failure, embarassment, and political repurcussions. If lead scientists are punished/executed for failure, then the program is set back even further.
Option 3 is interesting. It could mean that the scientists have been lying to His Magnificent Hairness about their progress (something that apparently happened to Saddam), and were forced to gin up a big bang quickly when the order to test came. Heads will probably roll here if this is the case. Or it could mean that the program is just window dressing, and this was just an attempt to blackmail more aid.
Reenk Roink
10-13-2006, 01:56
We all know that at most, North Korea has tested a very weak/not too successful nuke.
Now, the kiloton measures have been all over the place. Russia says 5-15 k/TNT, other go for the much lower 1-2 k/TNT.
Some say that the data points to a "subcritical explosion that failed to achieve a sustained fission reaction."
The only way to completely confirm a fake is for radionuclides not to be detected near the test site.
Here's to hoping for just that...
But why piss the world off whit a bogus nuke or incomplete technology?
Just doesn’t make any sense.
What’s behind all this then?
Banquo's Ghost
10-13-2006, 09:58
But why piss the world off whit a bogus nuke or incomplete technology?
Just doesn’t make any sense.
What’s behind all this then?
Bluster and dick-measuring. As I noted in another thread, dictators need to think they are big men. Despite the inevitability of an invasion, and the consequent guarantee of his downfall and death, Saddam continued to give the impression he had WMD when in fact he had not. Why? If he had just sat in his box and allowed the inspectors free reign, he would still be in power. Earlier, he was one of the USA's bestest buddies, yet he invaded Kuwait and wrecked everything for himself. Why?
Because dictators surrounded by yes men soon believe their own mythology.
I'm pretty sure no-one has had the cojones to tell Kim the bomb fizzled. I wouldn't be surprised to learn later that the chief scientists faked the bomb because they had been told that the Dear Leader required a nuke by October. Saying it might be ready by Christmas, or that actually they had no refined uranium or appropriate tech would be a one-way ticket to 'professional disgrace'.
And he won't believe the doubts expressed in the western capitalist running dog lackey media, will he?
Seamus Fermanagh
10-13-2006, 13:17
Bluster and dick-measuring. As I noted in another thread, dictators need to think they are big men. Despite the inevitability of an invasion, and the consequent guarantee of his downfall and death, Saddam continued to give the impression he had WMD when in fact he had not. Why? If he had just sat in his box and allowed the inspectors free reign, he would still be in power. Earlier, he was one of the USA's bestest buddies, yet he invaded Kuwait and wrecked everything for himself. Why?
Because dictators surrounded by yes men soon believe their own mythology.
Good points here. "Bestest buddy" might be stretching it, but there was a time we were willing to work with him, true enough. I also find it fascinating that his own scientents and generals may well have been lying to Saddam about the WMD's -- whacky scenario.
I'm pretty sure no-one has had the cojones to tell Kim the bomb fizzled. I wouldn't be surprised to learn later that the chief scientists faked the bomb because they had been told that the Dear Leader required a nuke by October. Saying it might be ready by Christmas, or that actually they had no refined uranium or appropriate tech would be a one-way ticket to 'professional disgrace'.
"Professional disgrace" is still expiated with a 9mm temporal cranial injection over there, isn't it? Charming R&D conditions.....
Preliminary intelligence sampling shows no sign of radiation from the test.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/10/13/nkorea.test.sample/index.html
yesdachi
10-13-2006, 20:39
Oh my! This is worse than I thought; they have made nukes that don’t produce radiation. :shocked:
Pull my finger, I have a way to make people pay attention to (and dislike) me too. ~D
sharrukin
10-13-2006, 22:14
http://www.llnl.gov/str/Walter.html
http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/India/IndiaRealYields.html
http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Library/Effects/UndergroundEffects.html
From these sites it seems that determining the yield is not a simple formula. The richter scale does not clearly give us an indication of the kiloton yield of a nuclear test. We do have much more information on the tests carried out by India and Pakistan and are still unable to accurately detrmine the yield of several tests. A variable factor of two or sometimes three exists for these tests. We have no knowledge of the conditions under which the North Korean test took place, or even if a nuclear event did take place. The soil condition, the size of the detonation chamber, chamber venting, detonation depth, etc are unknown. Yield estimates are based on typically designed American underground tests.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061009/ap_on_re_mi_ea/koreas_nuclear_text
official North Korean announcement:
“The field of scientific research in the DPRK successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, 2006, at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation.
“It has been confirmed that there was no such danger as radioactive emission in the course of the nuclear test as it was carried out under scientific consideration and careful calculation.
“The nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology 100 percent. It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability.
“It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it.”
This sounds like they know there isn't going to be any radiation, which would make me suspect it very well could be a fake.
"Some experts say the yield might have been far higher than 1 kt as tremors are observed in an abated state as they pass through obstacles such as rock. Prof. Hong Tae-kyung of Yonsei University said the tremors were observed by seismological observatories here after passing through seabeds in the East Sea, which cushion them more than continents."
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2006/10/11/publiceye/entry2081187.shtml
One problematic element of the story, said Martin, arises in estimating the yield of the blast.
“No one is sure it was nuclear, but that’s the working assumption,” he said. However, he explained, determining the full yield of the blast is based on readings from a seismograph, the same method used in measuring an earthquake. “The catch is that to know what that number means on a Richter scale and how it translates into the power of a weapon, you have to know the geology of the earth,” said Martin. An underground blast measuring 4.2 on the Richter scale would mean two different things if the ground was made of sand versus granite.
“We have lousy information on the geology,” said Martin, which limits everyone’s understanding of the impact of the blast. “You saw it on the first day. The Russians were saying it could have been anywhere from 5-15 kilotons, roughly the range of the bomb of Hiroshima. But U.S. intelligence was saying it was less than 1 kiloton. South Korea’s estimates were in between.”
In his story for the “Evening News” last night (you can watch it here) Martin reported the U.S.’s estimates on the yield of the blast – less than a kiloton. He went with the U.S. estimate “not because it’s more accurate than the others, but because that’s the information that the people who are making decisions are using.”
Blodrast
10-14-2006, 07:48
Actually, it seems that it was indeed a nuke:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061014/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_nkorea;_ylt=Asv57A.xd2F__hZxOG0Jqpas0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--
WASHINGTON - An air sampling taken after
North Korea's claimed nuclear test detected radioactive debris consistent with an atomic explosion, Bush administration and congressional officials said Friday night. They said no final determination had been made about the nature of last weekend's mystery-shrouded blast.
ADVERTISEMENT
One U.S. government official said intelligence officials assigned an 80 percent probability that the North Korean explosion was a nuclear detonation, based on the air sample collected Wednesday. The official said it appeared highly unlikely that the sample of radioactive material was produced by any other source, including a nuclear power reactor.
Samurai Waki
10-14-2006, 07:59
I can see why China, Russia, and Korea might be edgy about joining an American-Japanese led embargo on North Korea, as it stands, the USA doesn't have the best running record in Diplomatic actions, and hasn't really impressed much of the world when we've flexed our muscles. I think, in order to to bring the North Korean situation to heel, we're going to have to change from a Semi-War Economy, to a Total War Economy.
God I love that phrase.
Reenk Roink
10-17-2006, 02:35
Looks like it's a real nuke... (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6056370.stm)
Blodrast
10-17-2006, 19:39
Looks like it's a real nuke... (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6056370.stm)
Just as I pointed out two posts above, Reenk Roink. Take me off your ignore list~;p
Anyway, there is little difference, imo, if they have the real thing (even if a tiny one), or they are very close to it.
Either way, they are close to getting big toys now.
This was probably inevitable, and this stands for every country in the world. Sooner or later, they will all get nukes. At least the reasonably developed ones, or the ones with decent technology. It's impossible to prevent that from happening, indefinitely. The question is how to deal with the new members of the nuke club...
Furious Mental
10-18-2006, 07:23
I know how not to deal with them- the current "non-proliferation regime". The NPT simply has zero credibility with many countries now for the simple reason that the vast majority of states signed it believing that the five "recognised" nuclear weapons states would actually make good on their promises to disarm. Decades later they show no sign of doing that and unsurprisingly India, Pakistan and Israel show no sign of ever acceding to the treaty, and the continued existence of nuclear technology in existing nuclear weapons states helps drive proliferation elsewhere. North Korea creates deterrent against the US, Iran creates deterrent against Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia create deterrent against Iran and Israel, etc. Technology from Pakistan goes to North Korea, technology from North Korea and China goes Iran, and so on.
However if one simply accepts it as a given that nuclear deterrents are going to proliferate, I'd say the most important thing to do is
(1) avoid stupid confrontational policies which actually risk the use of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons states need to have embassis in each other's capitals and hotlines between each other's leaders, and they need to use them, so that crises don't escalate because neither side is willing or able to communicate to the other except through crude "shows of force" and other dangerous gestures.
(2) make sure that nuclear technology is monitored by an international body so that it doesn't fall into the hands of genuine maniacs. Which really means that the current nonsensical treaty system needs to be chucked out the window.
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