View Full Version : Mafia V: The Family Strikes Back [Concluded]
Crazed Rabbit
12-09-2006, 08:02
Vote: Seamus.
Of course, now that noone suspects me, I'll die next round. Such is my fate, I suppose.
Crazed Rabbit
Reenk Roink
12-09-2006, 15:23
Let me phone the Wanax and congratulate him! :2thumbsup: :balloon2: :balloon: :balloon3: :balloon2: :balloon: :balloon3: :balloon2: :balloon: :balloon3: :balloon2: :balloon: :balloon3:
Reenk Roink
12-09-2006, 15:27
Of course, now that noone suspects me,
No, you're still suspicious that you said that. Plus the fact that you and Xiahou have voted synonymously at least 3 rounds and maybe more... Eh? Wanax...
EDIT: Eureka! I got it. After giving ambiguous and cryptic messages because I felt that I could trust no one, I think I've found our one-two team.
CR and Xiahou have the backgrounds to be the bible killer and the Wanax (who posted a book called "Discourse to an Infidel Mathematician") in their kills.
Look at the other votes guys: Dutch_guy and Craterus are retaliation voting essentially, same with Don and Seamus. But CR and Xiahou are voting together, extremely odd in the dog eat last rounds of the Game. You know what to do villagers!
Craterus
12-09-2006, 16:21
I think he's onto something...
Unvote: Dutch_guy
Vote: Xiahou
They've both kept quiet and evaded suspicion for most of the game.
Dutch_guy
12-09-2006, 16:27
Plus, come to think of it, those bible messages do fit the profile(s). So yes, I'm unvoting Craterus, and voting Xiahou. Let's see what for reaction we get then.
Vote Xiahou
:balloon2:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-09-2006, 16:33
Fascinating :book:
Reenk Roink
12-09-2006, 17:56
Well fellow villagers, I have closely examined the thread and the evidence is even more damning! CR and Xiahou are like siamese twins. Aside from the three rounds already mentioned, here is the other stuff:
Round 2: CR abstained, while Xiahou didn't vote
Both didn't vote in the tiebreaker.
They were probably wanting to lay low after the first round where I called them out.
Round 3: CR and Xiahou both voted for Zal. In what would be a recurring pattern, their posts were very close together, deliberations being one after another...
Round 4: Xiahou voted for Csar, in his long attempt to get him lynched. CR layed low again, taking an on again off again approach.
Round 5: CR voted disco. Separated by only one post, Xiahou voted for Csar again (in his attempt to get him lynched since last round) but get this, he said: "disco seems like a reasonable choice".
And you know Round 6 and 7.
Coincidence? I think not...
******************************************
Now, if you'll remember villagers, the 4 people I named innocent were killed withing 2 rounds. CR apparently put a lot on this pattern.
He said "Of course, now that noone suspects me, I'll die next round. Such is my fate, I suppose"
Now, this is a pretty good strategy, claiming innocent like that and saying that he would die next round. Good to draw attention away after getting rid of any possibility of losing.
******************************************
Now, I have been in correspondence with Kommo, though I wasn't exactly sure he trusted me, so I also held back from him, and gave him ambiguous and odd statements.
He wanted me to investigate Igno and Seamus in that order, but I was lynched.
He also thought Dutch_guy a suspect.
After he went on Seamus, he told me that Igno had dropped from his list, and Seamus was the prime suspect. I concurred for his reasons, but now I see this turn of events, and I must reevaluate everything.
My suspect list:
Primes: (CR & Xiahou)
Possibles: (Seamus, Igno)
Innocents: (Dg, Craterus)
Enigma: (Don C)
We MUST lynch one or the other of this team NOW!
If I am right, and there is quite a possibility that I am, then leaving both alive this round seals the deal. However, we still have a chance to lynch Seamus (also suspicious) next round.
The call is yours, and you know what is the best choice...
I'm not creative enough to be the Wanax and I certainly wouldn't look up bible passages to post with my kills. CR as mafia? Maybe, but he came up looking pretty solid after Sasaki attempted flushing him out.
I'd suggest we stick to Seamus- his normally analytical behavior has been lacking this game. Certainly lynching me would be a wasted round that we can ill afford at this point- I for one, would like to see the town win this game. If you lynch me you'd better hope we previously lynched a mafioso- if not, they're going to walk away with it.
Reenk Roink
12-09-2006, 21:13
I'd suggest we stick to Seamus- his normally analytical behavior has been lacking this game. Certainly lynching me would be a wasted round that we can ill afford at this point- I for one, would like to see the town win this game. If you lynch me you'd better hope we previously lynched a mafioso- if not, they're going to walk away with it.
Oh, I never said anything about letting Seamus off the hook. He is definitely with you two in the top 3 suspect list.
This is our scenario:
There is some pretty convincing evidence that you two are a tandem mafia.
There is some pretty convincing evidence that Seamus is a mafia.
Now, both cases are plausible. I would think that the connection between you and CR is stronger than the change in Seamus's behavior, but it really doesn't matter.
The fact is, the villagers have two options:
1) Kill Seamus.
If he is a mafia, he dies, and unless his partner is still alive (and super sneaky) the villagers win!
If you and CR are the mafia, the villagers automatically lose, having 1 lynch to deal with two mafia.
2) Kill Xiahou or CR.
If you are mafia, well, that's one down and one to go for the villagers win!
If you are not mafia, then the villagers have one more round to lynch Seamus or whoever else they find is mafia.
The better option is clear.
I'm not creative enough to be the Wanax and I certainly wouldn't look up bible passages to post with my kills. CR as mafia? Maybe, but he came up looking pretty solid after Sasaki attempted flushing him out.
This is the kind of stuff that goes against ya...
Sasaki Kojiro
12-09-2006, 21:24
Oh, I never said anything about letting Seamus off the hook. He is definitely with you two in the top 3 suspect list.
This is our scenario:
There is some pretty convincing evidence that you two are a tandem mafia.
There is some pretty convincing evidence that Seamus is a mafia.
Now, both cases are plausible. I would think that the connection between you and CR is stronger than the change in Seamus's behavior, but it really doesn't matter.
Acting together doesn't seem a plausible mafia strategy to me. I've partnered with Xiahou and we made sure not to partner too much, and Crazed didn't work in tandem with Kage in mini-mafia.
Also if you want tandem, Seamus and Xiahou both went after lurkers in a pretty big way. All three voted for you.
The fact is, the villagers have two options:
1) Kill Seamus.
If he is a mafia, he dies, and unless his partner is still alive (and super sneaky) the villagers win!
If you and CR are the mafia, the villagers automatically lose, having 1 lynch to deal with two mafia.
2) Kill Xiahou or CR.
If you are mafia, well, that's one down and one to go for the villagers win!
If you are not mafia, then the villagers have one more round to lynch Seamus or whoever else they find is mafia.
The better option is clear.
You've got this all wrong
1) Lynch Seamus
a) He was mafia, other mafia already lynched, town wins
b) He isn't mafia, one mafia already lynched, one more try
c) He was mafia, other mafia still alive, one more try
d) He isn't mafia, two mafia alive, town loses
2) Lynch Xiahou or CR
a) They are mafia. One two lynch
b) They aren't mafia, two other mafia alive, town loses
c) They aren't mafia, one other mafia alive, one two lynch town loses
This is the kind of stuff that goes against ya...
You didn't find CR's response genuine?
Reenk Roink
12-09-2006, 21:42
Acting together doesn't seem a plausible mafia strategy to me. I've partnered with Xiahou and we made sure not to partner too much, and Crazed didn't work in tandem with Kage in mini-mafia.
Also if you want tandem, Seamus and Xiahou both went after lurkers in a pretty big way. All three voted for you.
Um, exactly why it's popped up only recently, although there has been tacit support between both of them in the middle. It's ingenious, play it low at the start and middle, and then come out together in the end. The fact that Seamus is getting owned by this tandem is what is suspicious.
You've got this all wrong
1) Lynch Seamus
a) He was mafia, other mafia already lynched, town wins
b) He isn't mafia, one mafia already lynched, one more try
c) He was mafia, other mafia still alive, one more try
d) He isn't mafia, two mafia alive, town loses
2) Lynch Xiahou or CR
a) They are mafia. One two lynch
b) They aren't mafia, two other mafia alive, town loses
c) They aren't mafia, one other mafia alive, one two lynch town loses
Yes Sasaki, I didn't put every possible situation up there, only the plausible ones. By the way, you forgot: Seamus is actually the host, never play Mafia again and Crazed Rabbit is the detective... :rolleyes:
Fact is, it is much more likely that CR and Xiahou are the mafia than Seamus, and we don't have a partner for Seamus anyway...
Therefore, we lynch one of them now, and decide on the other or Seamus next round...
You didn't find CR's response genuine?
No. The fact that you do says a lot...
Seamus Fermanagh
12-09-2006, 22:21
CR/X-man: what up? I wrote off Don's vote as an anomaly with all the dead whispering, but sheesh guys!
Well, I am certain I shouldn't be the target, so though I suspect Xiahou less than I do Don C, I'll
Unvote: Don C
Vote: Xiahou.
I freely acknowledge that this is partly to try to survive a mafia game. I've been killed in every one so far otherwise.
The "case" against me, so far, rests on a lot of subjective interpretation. I have supposedly deviated from my normal posting style. My analysis has been said to lack a "punch line." The Voting Records are supposedly crafted to "prove my innocence."
I have heard this in every game so far!
Sasaki took me to task in GF2 for not posting long posts in the early game. His baseline for comparison, my first game (CN) in which I was a silly townie until being promoted to detective later in the game. As the detective, I dumped a lot of stuff in the water in order to prepare my reveal -- and then more to defend that reveal from the town doctor who preferred me as bait instead of a live detective.
I've been told that all the voting records are crafted to make me look good. Unlike George Will, I don't edit them down to make a point. The votes are a tool to look back and match up with current trends for comparison. Where I fit the bill of "suspect" you'll see my name listed along with the others who fit those criteria.
I've had a few insightful comments, mostly picking up on the musings of others and turning them a bit for a different angle. I lacked insight with all but one or two -- out of many tries, across 4 games now. Usually, their insightfulness is only discernible during the wrap-up anyway.
If you take the time to go back across all of my games, you'll find that it's the same bloke doing the postings and the variations wouldn't get past 1 SD.
Okay Sasaki, you've poked at CR and now you've poked at me. Look for the next one on your hit parade!:beam:
I think we've done for one mafioso and that unwrapping an "enigma" will cure the second. Self defense sends me in another direction, alas.
Reenk Roink
12-09-2006, 22:42
The "case" against me, so far, rests on a lot of subjective interpretation. I have supposedly deviated from my normal posting style. My analysis has been said to lack a "punch line." The Voting Records are supposedly crafted to "prove my innocence."
The case against you is still there though... :rolleyes:
Don't think you've gotten away yet. I'm a keeping my eye on you as well. You're just less of a threat than the duo, and we must act against them now, so we can deliberate at leisure who is the real mafia and be victorious!
Sasaki Kojiro
12-09-2006, 22:43
Um, exactly why it's popped up only recently, although there has been tacit support between both of them in the middle. It's ingenious, play it low at the start and middle, and then come out together in the end. The fact that Seamus is getting owned by this tandem is what is suspicious.
Look, there are 7 people left. 2 people voting together is what we call a coincidence. I notice you haven't jumped all over Dutch_guy and Craterus.
Yes Sasaki, I didn't put every possible situation up there, only the plausible ones. By the way, you forgot: Seamus is actually the host, never play Mafia again and Crazed Rabbit is the detective... :rolleyes:
Why were yours the most plausible?
Fact is, it is much more likely that CR and Xiahou are the mafia than Seamus, and we don't have a partner for Seamus anyway...
No, there probably innocent. And I do have a partner for Seamus.
No. The fact that you do says a lot...
Apparently you're the only one who doesn't then. Anyone can stick bible references in a kill, assuming the mafia are even writing that kill.
Seamus Fermanagh
12-09-2006, 22:47
No, there probably innocent. And I do have a partner for Seamus.
Since I don't have one, that'll be a fun surprise!:laugh4:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-09-2006, 22:51
[QUOTE]The "case" against me, so far, rests on a lot of subjective interpretation. I have supposedly deviated from my normal posting style. My analysis has been said to lack a "punch line." The Voting Records are supposedly crafted to "prove my innocence."
Mine always do. This is the same subjective interpretation you've been putting your trust in, remember?
Also, Kommodus's method is Objective. Numerical.
I have heard this in every game so far!
Sasaki took me to task in GF2 for not posting long posts in the early game.
Was for lurking.
I've been told that all the voting records are crafted to make me look good. Unlike George Will, I don't edit them down to make a point. The votes are a tool to look back and match up with current trends for comparison. Where I fit the bill of "suspect" you'll see my name listed along with the others who fit those criteria.
You evoked them in defense of your innocence, it was pointed out that they showed no such thing.
Okay Sasaki, you've poked at CR and now you've poked at me. Look for the next one on your hit parade!:beam:
The fact that it took you this long to think of this possibility points to your guilt.
Reenk Roink
12-09-2006, 22:54
Look, there are 7 people left. 2 people voting together is what we call a coincidence. I notice you haven't jumped all over Dutch_guy and Craterus.
Voting together consistently the whole game is what we in this part of the country call a "pretty big coincidence". Just like how it was just a pretty big coincidence that OSU's coach decided not to vote in the final BCS vote... :rolleyes:
As for Dg and Craterus, considering they were at each other's throats for half the game and it took some PM mediation to patch up their differences and face the common threat, yeah, I'm not too suspicious.
Why were yours the most plausible?
Read the thread...
No, there probably innocent. And I do have a partner for Seamus.
:rolleyes4: :laugh4:
It's amazing how your caprice is...
Who is Seamus' partner though? He is a prime suspect, and we need to know...
Apparently you're the only one who doesn't then. Anyone can stick bible references in a kill, assuming the mafia are even writing that kill.
If your notion of everyone is you and CR and Xiahou and me, then yes...
By the way, you sure assumed I wrote the kills when you went hysterical on me... :rolleyes:
Reenk Roink
12-09-2006, 22:57
The fact that it took you this long to think of this possibility points to your guilt.
You just ruined an above average (for you on your scale of course) cross with this. How on earth does that follow? What new axioms allow you to proceed with that line of argument?! :dizzy2:
Voting together consistently the whole game is what we in this part of the country call a "pretty big coincidence". Just like how it was just a pretty big coincidence that OSU's coach decided not to vote in the final BCS vote... :rolleyes:
As for Dg and Craterus, considering they were at each other's throats for half the game and it took some PM mediation to patch up their differences and face the common threat, yeah, I'm not too suspicious.
Read the thread...
:rolleyes4: :laugh4:
It's amazing how your caprice is...
Who is Seamus' partner though? He is a prime suspect, and we need to know...
If your notion of everyone is you and CR and Xiahou and me, then yes...
By the way, you sure assumed I wrote the kills when you went hysterical on me... :rolleyes:
I'm pretty sure he's talking about you.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-09-2006, 23:10
You just ruined an above average (for you on your scale of course) cross with this. How on earth does that follow? What new axioms allow you to proceed with that line of argument?! :dizzy2:
It certainly would have instantly occured to me had I been in that situation and innocent. Sigurd and I jump on Crazed with no evidence to see his reaction, and then Kommodus and I jump on Seamus with little evidence. You'd think he'd think of it sooner.
:rolleyes4: :laugh4:
It's amazing how your caprice is...
Who is Seamus' partner though? He is a prime suspect, and we need to know...
I'll tell you some other time.
By the way, you sure assumed I wrote the kills when you went hysterical on me... :rolleyes:
Aw, man, are you still upset about that? It was far too important to just let you slide by. Of course I went after you full throttle. Sure it's obvious now that you were the detective, but it would have been bade gameplay to leave you alive. At the time I gave you 50/50. I'm sure you've learned your lesson though. For what it's worth I apologize. Learn from Banquo though, he took it with a sense of humor.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-09-2006, 23:15
CR/X-man: what up? I wrote off Don's vote as an anomaly with all the dead whispering, but sheesh guys!
Well, I am certain I shouldn't be the target, so though I suspect Xiahou less than I do Don C, I'll
Unvote: Don C
Vote: Xiahou.
BTW, Seamus, if you really thought Don was guilty then his vote wouldn't be an anomaly now would it? It would be trying to start a wagon to get you lynched.
If you were innocent you would be just as interested in finding the mafia as you would in saving your own skin, because lynching one innocent is the same as lynching another. But you don't try to convince us of Don's guilt, you just defend yourself.
Also, did you forget this little thing from that pm a while ago?
Actually, I'm surprised that Don C hasn't got whacked. I never posted about it -- let sleeping dogs lie -- but his absence pretty well confirms he's neither mafia nor a detective. Thought he'd be dead by now.
GeneralHankerchief
12-09-2006, 23:17
I'm on briefly, so I'll make this short.
Obviously there is a tie vote. We need that tie to be broken (either by Ignoramus or one of this six).
I don't want to do a dead vote yet. If it's not broken I'll think of something else...
EDIT: Woot, this now has more posts than Mafia III. :medievalcheers:
Crazed Rabbit
12-09-2006, 23:22
Reenk, did you not admit after one game that you were playing a 'bad villager'? It seems you just want to get back at those who voted to lynch you.
As for you 'evidence' of me and Xiahou's conniving - we voted on the same person once. Is that conclusive of anything? And is that every different from comparisons of everyone else's voting records?
Why Seamus - he's come up with no suspects after all this time - very similar to when Kommodus, who shares his analytical approach, was Mafia in mafia III. His defense does not seem to be very townie-esque.
Crazed Rabbit
Sasaki Kojiro
12-09-2006, 23:25
I'm on briefly, so I'll make this short.
Obviously there is a tie vote. We need that tie to be broken (either by Ignoramus or one of this six).
I don't want to do a dead vote yet. If it's not broken I'll think of something else...
EDIT: Woot, this now has more posts than Mafia III. :medievalcheers:
Congrats GH. Would be more but I opted to send a ton of pm's instead.
~:cheers:
Reenk Roink
12-09-2006, 23:34
It certainly would have instantly occured to me had I been in that situation and innocent. Sigurd and I jump on Crazed with no evidence to see his reaction, and then Kommodus and I jump on Seamus with little evidence. You'd think he'd think of it sooner.
Sasaki, the argument you are making here is stretching the use of a syllogism... This is how I'm seeing it:
1) It took "long" (i.e an undefined period of time) for Seamus to think of possibility X.
2) One would think that a person would think of possibility X sooner than the "long" (undefined period of time) while he did.
C) Seamus is guilty.
Not only is premise 2 extremely weak itself (the person could be stupid, slow, or thought of the possibility and not post it), but even if we accept it (which I don't), the conclusion simply does not follow.
I'll tell you some other time.
PM me and Kommodus. Give good reasons too...
Aw, man, are you still upset about that? It was far too important to just let you slide by. Of course I went after you full throttle. Sure it's obvious now that you were the detective, but it would have been bade gameplay to leave you alive. At the time I gave you 50/50. I'm sure you've learned your lesson though. For what it's worth I apologize. Learn from Banquo though, he took it with a sense of humor.
Sasaki, I am not upset about you pushing to lynch me (I'm more upset with CR, Seamus, and Xiahou for that). That should be clear with my joke "permaexclusalisted" status. What I am upset with is the way you go about interrogating people with terrible reasons. You start bandwagons, cause divisiveness, and all in all, hamper the villagers. Now, I'm not saying that you never get it right, but your getting it right is more due to the fact that you go after so many people and have better chances...
Reenk Roink
12-09-2006, 23:39
Reenk, did you not admit after one game that you were playing a 'bad villager'? It seems you just want to get back at those who voted to lynch you.
Um.. yes Mafia III, and I made sure to drop that... :rolleyes:
As for you 'evidence' of me and Xiahou's conniving - we voted on the same person once. Is that conclusive of anything? And is that every different from comparisons of everyone else's voting records?
You voted on the same person 4 times. Please look at an earlier post for the "coincidence" of your votes and give me an example of a pair with voting records as similar as yours.
Why Seamus - he's come up with no suspects after all this time - very similar to when Kommodus, who shares his analytical approach, was Mafia in mafia III. His defense does not seem to be very townie-esque.
Crazed Rabbit
This really means nothing. You use labels like "townie-esque" without defining them clearly. This argument is as good as "abstaining courteously is the perfect cover for the Mafia". We simply don't know what you mean...
Now please listen, I certainly have my suspicions on Seamus, but the fact is, that we have one more round to get Seamus, but must act this round to get your tandem.
I tell ya what, Vote: Xiahou, and you will have a bit more credibility in my eyes...
Sasaki Kojiro
12-09-2006, 23:50
Sasaki, the argument you are making here is stretching the use of a syllogism... This is how I'm seeing it:
1) It took "long" (i.e an undefined period of time) for Seamus to think of possibility X.
2) One would think that a person would think of possibility X sooner than the "long" (undefined period of time) while he did.
C) Seamus is guilty.
Not only is premise 2 extremely weak itself (the person could be stupid, slow, or thought of the possibility and not post it), but even if we accept it (which I don't), the conclusion simply does not follow.
Of course it doesn't follow, I'm not concluding he's mafia from that. I'm concluding it from lot's of things.
PM me and Kommodus. Give good reasons too...
Kommodus knows all about it :p
Sasaki, I am not upset about you pushing to lynch me (I'm more upset with CR, Seamus, and Xiahou for that). That should be clear with my joke "permaexclusalisted" status. What I am upset with is the way you go about interrogating people with terrible reasons. You start bandwagons, cause divisiveness, and all in all, hamper the villagers. Now, I'm not saying that you never get it right, but your getting it right is more due to the fact that you go after so many people and have better chances...
Ah ok. Well that's my method in a nutshell. Most of my wagons have terrible reasons and I'm not ashamed to admit it ("CR is mafia. Lynch him" anyone? :D ). But it works and I'm a firm believer in it. Consider this: The mafia won all 4 of my games, as well as Mafia I where I was not playing. Now I admit my wildness causes mass confusion, I confuse myself all the time, but from confusion comes knowledge. And yeah, I'm wrong as often as I'm right, but at least I'm right eh?
Glad to here that was a joke I thought I'd actually upset you :bow:
Reenk Roink
12-10-2006, 00:07
Ah ok. Well that's my method in a nutshell. Most of my wagons have terrible reasons and I'm not ashamed to admit it ("CR is mafia. Lynch him" anyone? :D ). But it works and I'm a firm believer in it. Consider this: The mafia won all 4 of my games, as well as Mafia I where I was not playing. Now I admit my wildness causes mass confusion, I confuse myself all the time, but from confusion comes knowledge. And yeah, I'm wrong as often as I'm right, but at least I'm right eh?
Well, that's certainly an...interesting...strategy. Still, I just want to point out that GH's Mafia games are the toughest for the Mafia to win, because of the setup. No special roles besides the Mafia and the Detective make it much simpler. The only one that the Mafia won was the first one (with the least people and no detectives). The fact that the Mafia actually got this far with 31 people is quite amazing, but I'm resolved to steal their thunder. :yes:
Glad to here that was a joke I thought I'd actually upset you :bow:
:bow:
Crazed Rabbit
12-10-2006, 00:23
You voted on the same person 4 times. Please look at an earlier post for the "coincidence" of your votes and give me an example of a pair with voting records as similar as yours.
Four times? Are you counting abstaining as voting for the same person?
Well fellow villagers, I have closely examined the thread and the evidence is even more damning! CR and Xiahou are like siamese twins. Aside from the three rounds already mentioned, here is the other stuff:
Round 2: CR abstained, while Xiahou didn't vote
Both didn't vote in the tiebreaker.
They were probably wanting to lay low after the first round where I called them out.
Round 3: CR and Xiahou both voted for Zal. In what would be a recurring pattern, their posts were very close together, deliberations being one after another...
Round 4: Xiahou voted for Csar, in his long attempt to get him lynched. CR layed low again, taking an on again off again approach.
Round 5: CR voted disco. Separated by only one post, Xiahou voted for Csar again (in his attempt to get him lynched since last round) but get this, he said: "disco seems like a reasonable choice".
And you know Round 6 and 7.
You insult my intelligence if you think I would play so foolishly. You cite a few rare instances of us posting near the same time as guilt. Do you think I'm some noob who would post so near to a mafia partner?
Now please listen, I certainly have my suspicions on Seamus, but the fact is, that we have one more round to get Seamus, but must act this round to get your tandem.
If seamus is one of two mafia left and we don't kill him, we lose. We don't really have one more round to get him if we lynch Xiahou - you insist he and I are a team and will urge my lynching if Xiahou gets lynched and I'm still alive. With your plan the town loses. It's pretty clear both Seamus and Xiahou aren't mafia, so lynching both of them gives mafia the win.
I tell ya what, Vote: Xiahou, and you will have a bit more credibility in my eyes...
Maybe he's mafia, but I think Seamus is more likely to be mafia, and I'm sticking with that.
Crazed Rabbit
Reenk Roink
12-10-2006, 01:09
Four times? Are you counting abstaining as voting for the same person?
The voting records' there...
You insult my intelligence if you think I would play so foolishly. You cite a few rare instances of us posting near the same time as guilt. Do you think I'm some noob who would post so near to a mafia partner?
It's not my intention to insult intelligence. It's my intention to snuff out Mafia. There is a clear pattern here.
If seamus is one of two mafia left and we don't kill him, we lose. We don't really have one more round to get him if we lynch Xiahou - you insist he and I are a team and will urge my lynching if Xiahou gets lynched and I'm still alive. With your plan the town loses. It's pretty clear both Seamus and Xiahou aren't mafia, so lynching both of them gives mafia the win.
One, I have no evidence of Seamus' partner. If Seamus is mafia, his partner is:
1) Dead
2) Alive
2 is a tough one, because there is no lead as to who it could be. The partner has done an excellent job of not being noticed with Seamus, and at this stage of the game, that's unlikely.
It's pretty clear both Seamus and Xiahou aren't mafia, so lynching both of them gives mafia the win.
Here's the problem, I think Seamus or CR/Xiahou are the Mafia. I happen to think that latter is more likely, and their situation is more dangerous. It's odd that you would maintain your vote on Seamus while not thinking that he is a Mafia though... :inquisitive:
Kommodus
12-10-2006, 01:48
Awesome! The late-game explosion of discussion has arrived. :idea2:
Anyway, with regards to Sasaki's strategy, it may be a bit annoying but it does work. By posting and accusing a lot, Sasaki creates discussion, which ample proof has shown to be beneficial to the town. Sure, he's wrong a lot, and he's started more than his share of witch-hunts, but what counts in the end is whether or not the mafia were caught, not how many innocents were lynched in the process.
So Reenk and Sasaki, I think you guys should back off from each other bit. Reenk, if you're really the detective, that would mean you guys are on the same team. You may have different tactics but you're working for the same goal. Eh?
Regarding Crazed Rabbit and Xiahou... hm. I've gotta admit, I'm disinclined to believe that the two mafiosi would work together in such a blatant fashion (though it is true that no one brought it up until now). It's a tough choice for sure, but I'm not going for it. Maybe I've been fooled, to my great shame and embarrassment (:shame: ), but that's my decision.
Reenk Roink
12-10-2006, 01:53
Nobody ever listened to me about anything in this game. I always had the best intentions, truly reflected on my conclusions, but I was always ignored. :no: :shame: :disappointed:
It's lonely work, this private eye stuff...
:flybye:
Kagemusha
12-10-2006, 02:00
Nobody ever listened to me about anything in this game. I always had the best intentions, truly reflected on my conclusions, but I was always ignored. :no: :shame: :disappointed:
It's lonely work, this private eye stuff...
:flybye:
Dont take it so seriously Reenk.~:) This game is all about arguing about theories.Theories,not people.:smash:
Crazed Rabbit
12-10-2006, 02:05
Here's the problem, I think Seamus or CR/Xiahou are the Mafia. I happen to think that latter is more likely, and their situation is more dangerous. It's odd that you would maintain your vote on Seamus while not thinking that he is a Mafia though...
I meant they are not both mafia, at the same time. Either one may be, but I believe Seamus to be more likely.
It's not my intention to insult intelligence. It's my intention to snuff out Mafia. There is a clear pattern here.
If I were mafia, I would do everything possible not to associate myself with the other mafioso - like I did in Mini-mafia, were noone suspected a link between me and Kage. I think the pattern you see is just a result of your bitterness that I voted to lynch you.
Crazed Rabbit
Seamus Fermanagh
12-10-2006, 06:35
This is past arguing.
Lines of opposition have solidified and the dead scream for me to join them, certain of my guilt.
Nothing I can say/post/refer to will alter that stance, all will be reinterpreted to trumpet my guilt.
All I can say is, go back over it from the start and read it through -- I don't think my message is inconsistent, but then again, I am the one writing it, so what do I know.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-10-2006, 17:30
^^cop out
Ignoramus Ignoramus where are yoouuuu??
Reenk Roink
12-10-2006, 18:50
Someone email Ignoramus.
Suspicious Reasons for voting:
1) Seamus has had a behavior change from past games.
2) Crazed Rabbit and Xiahou have been voting extremely similarly.
The defenses:
Both weak.
Who should be lynched this round:
Since we don't have a name for Seamus' partner yet (Sasaki and Kommodus are holding back on their suspect), it is more plausible that he is dead rather than alive, as in this late stage of the game, a partner would certainly surface (as in the Crazed Rabbit/Xiahou case). Thus, with two lynches left, it would certainly be more prudent to lynch Xiahou, and deliberate on Seamus/Crazed Rabbit next round.
I think the pattern you see is just a result of your bitterness that I voted to lynch you.
:rolleyes:
Don't even begin to flatter yourself.
If you can show me that patterns like the one between you and Xiahou are common, that'll be enough to convince me. Problem is, you cannot...
Sasaki Kojiro
12-10-2006, 19:02
I just realized: Kagemusha was killed last night. This means that this round will be the mafia's undoing.
You can't escape it Seamus IT'S THE CURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRSE!!!! ~:eek:
Craterus
12-10-2006, 19:31
Would the mafia seriously leave killing Kage till the end for fear of the curse?
How long has this curse been around?
GeneralHankerchief
12-10-2006, 19:40
Would the mafia seriously leave killing Kage till the end for fear of the curse?
How long has this curse been around?
Ever since Kage (as a mafioso) won Mafia I, whenever he has been killed in subsequent mafia games (my games only, oddly enough), things have started to go terribly wrong for the mafia.
I noticed this after Mafia IV when Kage was executed in the first round and the next two people executed were both mafiosi.
Craterus
12-10-2006, 19:42
Hmm. And this should bother a mafioso enough not to kill them until the end?
Did Seamus play in Mafia III and IV? What about Xiahou?
I'm guessing Crazed Rabbit did. I think I remember him in the first 2 mafia games.
GeneralHankerchief
12-10-2006, 19:47
Seamus and Xiahou did not. Rabbit did.
Crazed Rabbit
12-10-2006, 19:55
Here's my reasoning Craterus:
I know I am innocent, and so there cannot be a CR/Xiahou mafia. That means if Xiahou is mafia he is the only one. Whereas if Seamus is mafia, he probably has his partner left. So if Seamus is mafia, then we need to kill him this round and his partner next round. But if Xiahou is mafia, then we can execute Seamus this round and Xiahou the next and still win.
Crazed Rabbit
Craterus
12-10-2006, 20:19
Why is that directed at me? I'm not leading the case against you. ~:confused: (My vendetta is against Dutch_guy. ~;p)
And, at the moment, my vote is for Xiahou.
EDIT6: Let's assume the Mafia are aware of the curse. By killing Kage, complacency has clearly set in. I thought this game was beyond the town's reach, and clearly so does the Mafia.
Don't think this actually adds anything to the discussion though.:embarassed:
Reenk Roink
12-10-2006, 20:44
Crazed Rabbit's argument is modeled after mine, but there is stretching of the syllogism present in his version.
You see, my premise is that if Seamus is the mafia, it is more likely that he is alone than not (the partner is dead). To support this premise, I pointed to the fact that we do not have any clue as to who his partner could be*, and that is odd, because in the endgame, if his partner was alive, we would likely have seen a connection (like in Xiahou and Crazed Rabbit).
Crazed Rabbit is holding that Seamus' partner is probably left. He however, gives no reason as to why that is, and the premise is weak.
*One of my sources has recently told me of a possible partner of Seamus. I hold that while certainly possible, it is not plausible, and I have been given no reasons as the why this partner was named yet.
Another thing about Crazed Rabbit's argument, is that his premises are much more dogmatic than mine. He oddly claims that if Xiahou is the mafia, then he is the only one (again, no reason given). I claimed that if Seamus was the mafia, it is more likely that Seamus is alone than not (giving reasons as to why this is).
My argument on the whole is much more believable.
By the way, I'm sure Seamus knows he's innocent as well... :rolleyes:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-10-2006, 20:48
Craterus, I doubt the mafia took the curse into consideration when choosing to kill Kage. They killed him because he was one of Reenk's named innocents.
You can break the tie Craterus...vote for Seamus.
Crazed Rabbit
12-10-2006, 21:10
Why is that directed at me? I'm not leading the case against you. ~:confused: (My vendetta is against Dutch_guy. ~;p)
Because...
And, at the moment, my vote is for Xiahou.
Another thing about Crazed Rabbit's argument, is that his premises are much more dogmatic than mine. He oddly claims that if Xiahou is the mafia, then he is the only one (again, no reason given). I claimed that if Seamus was the mafia, it is more likely that Seamus is alone than not (giving reasons as to why this is).
If Xiahou is mafia, then either me or don are his fellow associates or noone at all. I know I am innocent and I'm pretty sure right now that don is. Simple logic. I'm not sure about Seamus's supporters (those voting for Xiahou or not voting).
Your whole case rests on some percieved pattern between me and Xiahou that is primarily a figment of your imagination.
Crazed Rabbit
Sasaki Kojiro
12-10-2006, 21:13
Also, Reenk, when Crazed Rabbit was the Serial Killer in my game, he was attacked quite strongly but did not swear he was innocent, even though he got lynched. Conversely, everytime he has sworn he was innocent, he has been innocent.
GeneralHankerchief
12-10-2006, 21:37
Okay, I've made my decision.
Voting will continue until the tie is broken.
Who should be lynched this round:
Since we don't have a name for Seamus' partner yet (Sasaki and Kommodus are holding back on their suspect), it is more plausible that he is dead rather than alive, as in this late stage of the game, a partner would certainly surface (as in the Crazed Rabbit/Xiahou case). Thus, with two lynches left, it would certainly be more prudent to lynch Xiahou, and deliberate on Seamus/Crazed Rabbit next round.
*sigh*
That's loonacy. You're arguing that since Seamus doesnt have a clear associate, which would be the way to play as mafia- not be associated with your partner- that his partner would have to be dead. OTOH, you're arguing that because CR and I have supposedly been voting similarly (that's never been made clear to me), we must both be mafia- even though acting in such a fashion would be very stupid for mafia to do.
Heres some thoughts:
1) If Reenk was mafia and is just trying to save his partners skin, you can afford to be "safe" and lynch me this round- just don't let him talk you into lynching CR next round.
2) If Reenk is just plain wrong and not deliberately misleading, we may still have Seamus and another mafioso left. In that case, being "safe" and lynching me will lose the game.
His suggested course of action makes no sense at all though- lynching me this round still leaves the town in the same position... You still have to accept the CR and Xiahou slate or the Seamus and unknown slate (Reenk maybe?). If the town thinks it's CR and myself, they still have no choice but to lynch CR next round or loose regardless. If you think it's Seamus, you should lynch him this round and hopefully end the game- but if he still has a living partner, you still have another round to find him.
My prediction is that if I'm lynched, Reenk will make the above argument and push to see CR lynched, defending Seamus yet again.
Craterus
12-10-2006, 22:04
Craterus, I doubt the mafia took the curse into consideration when choosing to kill Kage. They killed him because he was one of Reenk's named innocents.
You can break the tie Craterus...vote for Seamus.
Quick summary of why I should vote for Seamus please.
Reenk Roink
12-10-2006, 22:41
Your whole case rests on some percieved pattern between me and Xiahou that is primarily a figment of your imagination.
Figment of my imagination?
This is a figment of my imagination?
Well fellow villagers, I have closely examined the thread and the evidence is even more damning! CR and Xiahou are like siamese twins. Aside from the three rounds already mentioned, here is the other stuff:
Round 2: CR abstained, while Xiahou didn't vote
Both didn't vote in the tiebreaker.
They were probably wanting to lay low after the first round where I called them out.
Round 3: CR and Xiahou both voted for Zal. In what would be a recurring pattern, their posts were very close together, deliberations being one after another...
Round 4: Xiahou voted for Csar, in his long attempt to get him lynched. CR layed low again, taking an on again off again approach.
Round 5: CR voted disco. Separated by only one post, Xiahou voted for Csar again (in his attempt to get him lynched since last round) but get this, he said: "disco seems like a reasonable choice".
And you know Round 6 and 7.
Denying this connection is futile. Better that you give me examples of other people having this kind of voting pattern so I can see it as a not so rare occurrence or tell me a good alternative reason to why you both were voting so closely?
*sigh*
That's loonacy. You're arguing that since Seamus doesnt have a clear associate, which would be the way to play as mafia- not be associated with your partner- that his partner would have to be dead. OTOH, you're arguing that because CR and I have supposedly been voting similarly (that's never been made clear to me), we must both be mafia- even though acting in such a fashion would be very stupid for mafia to do.
Heres some thoughts:
1) If Reenk was mafia and is just trying to save his partners skin, you can afford to be "safe" and lynch me this round- just don't let him talk you into lynching CR next round.
2) If Reenk is just plain wrong and not deliberately misleading, we may still have Seamus and another mafioso left. In that case, being "safe" and lynching me will lose the game.
His suggested course of action makes no sense at all though- lynching me this round still leaves the town in the same position... You still have to accept the CR and Xiahou slate or the Seamus and unknown slate (Reenk maybe?). If the town thinks it's CR and myself, they still have no choice but to lynch CR next round or loose regardless. If you think it's Seamus, you should lynch him this round and hopefully end the game- but if he still has a living partner, you still have another round to find him.
My prediction is that if I'm lynched, Reenk will make the above argument and push to see CR lynched, defending Seamus yet again.
Interesting theory. Now, it's odd that I'm being called into question for being a Mafia now, but it's better than the other responses.
I suppose you know how I pushed for Seamus to be lynched right until I realized that there was such an uncanny pattern between you two? Like I said, Kommodus' argument against Seamus is decent, but I just feel that my argument against you guys is better.
Now, my sources have sent me reasons as to why the previously named partner of Seamus could be guilty, and I will reflect on them, but for now, I remain convinced that you guys are more likely than Seamus to be guilty, and all things equal, it's safer to lynch one of you first. My reasoning is more than well documented above.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-10-2006, 23:37
Quick summary of why I should vote for Seamus please.
Ok. Problematic because you haven't played the last few games, but Seamus has been acting different than in past games (Xiahou has been acting the same as last game. I partnered with him as mafia, I think I could recognize if he were mafia again).
I also don't know if you were around for the last couple times Kommodus used his numerical methods. He ID'd Lemur in Mafia II and Masy in Mafia IV. His current system is obviously accurate since it found out the detective (someone will act differently if they are detective just like they will if they are mafia). It's a fairly safe assumption that if he method points at Seamus this game then Seamus is mafia.
Here's Kommodus's post for reference: https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=1338306&postcount=716
Note that Duck and doc_bean both said they found Seamus strange too, and they are usually quite savvy.
Here's my post where I bring some arguments against Seamus: https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=1338603&postcount=719
And another of Kommodus's: https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=1338889&postcount=723
Also, look at the lynching of Reenk. It's obvious now that he was the detective. If you look, you can see Seamus put the lynch vote on Reenk. Then Xiahou put the third vote on. Now, if Seamus were mafia he would be eager to lynch Reenk, as would Xiahou. But there was no need for Xiahou to put that third vote on. He could have waited to see if Reenk remained in the lead. I think if he was mafia he would be cautious about voting for the detective if he didn't have to--he got caught in Cosa Nuova because of his vote for Kagemusha which Sigurd later picked up on.
This round he cast a vote for Don which didn't make much sense. Then he follows it up with this:
CR/X-man: what up? I wrote off Don's vote as an anomaly with all the dead whispering, but sheesh guys!
Well, I am certain I shouldn't be the target, so though I suspect Xiahou less than I do Don C, I'll
Unvote: Don C
Vote: Xiahou.
If he thought Don was guilty then his post wouldn't be an anomaly. It would be Don trying to get Seamus lynched. He slipped up here and revealed he didn't actually find Don suspicious.
Reenk Roink
12-10-2006, 23:44
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfvXem__AxQ&mode=related&search=
GH, can we just kill them both?
Seamus Fermanagh
12-11-2006, 01:29
Basic disconnect here, Sasaki.
I am as close to certain that Reenk's detective reveal was bogus as it is possible to be without the benefit of having been his mafia partner. He threw out stuff that was piecemeal, defensive, and incomplete. With Reenk gone there is one mafia left. My thoughts lean towards CR or Don C, and CR's innocent claim -- and you're correct that he's so far avoided outright lies -- seemed stronger. Xiahou is only on my vote list as a defense.
Yet you are buying Reenk as a detective!?!??!:no:
If I had to bet, I'd guess that Guru was being absolutely honest when he claimed to be a detective -- not that it helped him.
Others are trying to claim that I am Reenk's mafia partner :shame: -- at least that would suggest that I was TRYING to play the game on a more subtle level. You've got me "pegged" as a mafia based on a dumb-bunny move (nothing personal CR).
Doesn't connect folks....
Sasaki Kojiro
12-11-2006, 01:39
If I had to bet, I'd guess that Guru was being absolutely honest when he claimed to be a detective -- not that it helped him.
Hahahahaha that was why you killed him then? You actually believed him? :laugh4:
With Reenk gone there is one mafia left. My thoughts lean towards CR or Don C
Why on earth would your thoughts lean towards CR when Reenk has been trying to get us to lynch him for the last 3 pages? Does not connect :p
AggonyDuck
12-11-2006, 02:32
What if we're barking at the completely wrong tree here? Why can't the likes of Craterus and Dutch_guy be guilty?
Anyway I believe one of the mafioso's has some degree of multiplayer experience. I base this on the assumption that the Aggony clan isn't really that well known outside the MP group and the killer knew that I'm a member of this lovely clan. (although he might have just taken a look at my profile and checked the link)
Anyway I believe Seamus is innocent. He seems to be mainly a SP player, while on the other hand Crazed Rabbit has a pretty extensive MP career in MTW/VI. ~;)
EDIT: (I believe Sasaki might be correct with it being a red herring) ~:(
Sasaki Kojiro
12-11-2006, 02:43
If Craterus and Dutch Guy were both guilty one of them could have switched to Seamus and ended it. Either Seamus or Xiahou are mafia, that's undeniable.
I think it's pretty clear that the multiplayer bit was a red herring. Why else would they include it? The mafia doesn't just give away clues like that. They've done an excellent job confusing the town though.
AggonyDuck
12-11-2006, 02:48
Maybe you're right about it being a red herring.
Reenk Roink
12-11-2006, 03:10
when Reenk has been trying to get us to lynch him for the last 3 pages?
Well, I was trying to get Seamus lynched earlier. I just happened to stumble upon the connection afterwards...
You're right though, one of these is a Mafia. I still hold my case for CR/Xiahou, but the best thing would be to lynch both... :2thumbsup:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-11-2006, 03:12
Well, I was trying to get Seamus lynched earlier. I just happened to stumble upon the connection afterwards...
You're right though, one of these is a Mafia. I still hold my case for CR/Xiahou, but the best thing would be to lynch both... :2thumbsup:
If there both mafia then why would they be voting for each other...
Reenk Roink
12-11-2006, 03:24
If there both mafia then why would they be voting for each other...
Um... lynch both because we can't agree on who is the mafia, because killing both would allow for a smaller selection pool, etc...
The advantages are numerous... :rolleyes:
Nothing said about them both being mafia Sasaki*...you just assumed that... :wink:
*although that would be an excellent confounder...
Sasaki Kojiro
12-11-2006, 03:43
Oh I see. Yes if we could lynch both in one round that would be cool, but we're not allowed to do that. I also don't think it makes a difference if they both have a partner left, we'd still have to choose.
Kommodus
12-11-2006, 17:48
Sheesh, would someone show up and break the tie already?!
My recommendation is still to vote for Seamus. *knocks on wood*
Craterus
12-11-2006, 17:49
Voting not closed yet?
Unvote: Xiahou
Vote: Seamus
Sorry. I'm easily swayed on these matters. I don't think I'll play again; I'm not particularly useful to the town.
EDIT: Pretty quick response to Kommodus' plea. I bet he's impressed.
Sheesh, would someone show up and break the tie already?!Yeah really, if I thought it wouldn't be tantamount to throwing the game I would've changed my vote by now just to break the logjam..
The frightening thought, however, is that Seamus may not be the only mafioso left alive. If so, needlessly lynching me would lose the game... I would prefer that be on someone else's head- not mine.
Edit:
Voting not closed yet?
Unvote: Xiahou
Vote: SeamusHooray! :2thumbsup:
Seamus Fermanagh
12-11-2006, 17:59
Craterus, you make me sad.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-11-2006, 18:06
Sweet. Now we just have to lynch the 2nd mafioso tomorrow.
I wonder if Ig will be WoG'd.
Kage, your curse abilities combined with your "investigate mafia round 1 when detective" abilities are nothing short of astounding.
Don Corleone
12-11-2006, 18:07
What is the tie right now? 3-3 Seamus/Xiahou, with Ignoramus not voting?
Sad, I spent the past hour reading in depth and I don't suspect either of them anymore. If I change my vote though, Xiahou is lynched. :no:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-11-2006, 18:09
What is the tie right now? 3-3 Seamus/Xiahou, with Ignoramus not voting?
Vote Count:
Seamus 4 (Don, Crazed, Xiahou, Craterus)
Xiahou 2 (Seamus, Dutch_guy)
Kommodus
12-11-2006, 18:09
EDIT: Pretty quick response to Kommodus' plea. I bet he's impressed.
Very quick response indeed, my friend. I am impressed. I'll be even more impressed if we turn out to be right... :sweatdrop:
Reenk Roink
12-11-2006, 18:09
It's 4-2 Seamus...
To keep the tie, you should unvote: Seamus and vote: Xiahou since you don't suspect them anymore.
I actually don't suspect Seamus much at all anymore, and my case vs. Xiahou/CR is not as convincing to me either.
Either way, at least we can move on... :shrug:
EDIT: I am worried about the recent dogmatism in Kommodus and the heightened one in Sasaki...
Kagemusha
12-11-2006, 18:22
Sweet. Now we just have to lynch the 2nd mafioso tomorrow.
I wonder if Ig will be WoG'd.
Kage, your curse abilities combined with your "investigate mafia round 1 when detective" abilities are nothing short of astounding.
At your service.:bow: Lets hope the curse havent lost its power.:smash:
Kommodus
12-11-2006, 18:40
Banquo's Ghost had been chosen to get the chainsaw in the runoff vote. Somewhat reluctantly, Beirut called him up to the execution platform. Banquo groaned and deliberately did everything very slowly. After about a minute of this dawdling, he was finally pushed up to the platform by some angry villagers, led by Sasaki Kojiro.
"Banquo's Ghost, you have hereby been found guilty of murder and conspiracy to commit murder by the good people of the Frontroom. Your fate is sealed, but have you anything to say before you are executed?"
A sad look crossed Banquo's face. "No," he said simply.
Wow. The crowd certainly wasn't expecting that. He struck most of the villagers as the type to launch into a soliloquy at this time, but Banquo was done talking.
Beirut whispered something into his ear, and Banquo just shrugged. Sighing, the Chief of Police addressed the crowd once again.
"Here we execute another member of the Frontroom. Let's hope for all our sakes that he was a mafioso." Beirut looked like he wanted to say more, but didn't. Instead, he took out the chainsaw and quickly decapitated the condemned.
This continues to be on my mind. I really think there's a clue in there - it looks very much like Banquo's Ghost was special to the game in some way - like he had a special role of some kind. Detective, maybe???
It could be that BG just requested to go out this way, but usually GH just allows some last words - not a complete narration including Beirut's behavior.
I mean, Reenk's claim to be detective certainly sounded solid, but, I gotta admit, I still harbor some small traces of doubt.
EDIT: I am worried about the recent dogmatism in Kommodus and the heightened one in Sasaki...
Dogmatism? What are you talking about? I am by no means sure about Seamus's guilt. It's just, well, after everything I still think he's the best choice. Your arguments against CR and Xiahou had some merit, but I have to respectfully disagree.
My rather low level of certainty doesn't justify dogmatism. I could be wrong; for all I know, I've just condemned the village. But I wanted the game to move on, and felt I should at least voice my opinion.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-11-2006, 18:54
I think the extra bit in the execution is more likely a result of my persistant persecution of Banquo. If he was detective he would have claimed I think.
When the game isn't over after this execution it will have been proven that we got one mafioso. This CR/Xiahou pairing will have been debunked. I don't think you can make much of a case for any of the previous lynches at this point, Seamus is clearly the most likely.
Reenk Roink
12-11-2006, 19:11
Dogmatism? What are you talking about? I am by no means sure about Seamus's guilt. It's just, well, after everything I still think he's the best choice. Your arguments against CR and Xiahou had some merit, but I have to respectfully disagree.
My rather low level of certainty doesn't justify dogmatism. I could be wrong; for all I know, I've just condemned the village. But I wanted the game to move on, and felt I should at least voice my opinion.
What I meant is that you have went from recommendations to "look more closely" (as in my case, which was the most justified as I always register a behavior change in every game [I try a new act :wink:] and in this game, I have certainly been more distinguishable than my other versions [though this has happened after my execution, where I could freely PM people, reflect, and look for patterns] to an actual recommendation to lynch someone (Seamus). You yourself have noted that I was the one who registered the most apparent behavior change (no argument here) on your system.
I just feel that your recommendations are beginning to carry less weight than they used to (remember, when you first suspected me, I personally affirmed that it would be the best course of action to lynch me, essentially because of the accuracy of your system). Now I am beginning to have doubts about your system. I still feel that the uncanny connection between Xiahou and Crazed Rabbit is a stronger case than Seamus' behavior change.
You may turn out to be right Kommodus, but I still won't think of your system or your recommendation as I used to (no offense of course, just playing the game :shakehands:)...
Edit: I forgot to mention that "dogmatism" was the wrong word to use in retrospect. I suspect your eagerness to take a stronger position is due to the heightend desperation of the situation. :bow:
Kommodus
12-11-2006, 19:38
I just feel that your recommendations are beginning to carry less weight than they used to (remember, when you first suspected me, I personally affirmed that it would be the best course of action to lynch me, essentially because of the accuracy of your system). Now I am beginning to have doubts about your system. I still feel that the uncanny connection between Xiahou and Crazed Rabbit is a stronger case than Seamus' behavior change.
You may turn out to be right Kommodus, but I still won't think of your system or your recommendation as I used to (no offense of course, just playing the game :shakehands:)...
Your doubts about my current system are entirely justified. As I've said before, it's not the same system. It's actually my third numerical method in a series, and it is based on principles that are untested, unproven, and entirely different from those used by the first two. It is more complex than they are, with more possible ways to go wrong, and it needs significant refinement before even I can trust its predictions.
That's why the current case against Seamus isn't built primarily on the predictions of my method (though that's what originally called my attention to him). It's built more on the psychological, subjective methods that I've come to distrust so much (grr). I still recommended Seamus for lynching because, well, sometimes you just have to make a choice.
Anyway, each method I use should be judged independently of the others. In Mafia II, when my spreadsheet identified Lemur, I had significant doubts, and felt supremely vindicated to have been right. My second method in Mafia IV was dead on with Masy, and I was supremely confident of his guilt - but that method can never be used again. With my current method, I'm more doubtful than ever, but I also believe that with some refinements, it will become my best method yet. The outcome of this game should go a long way toward telling me what I need to change.
I can't wait to see what that outcome will be. :yes:
GeneralHankerchief
12-11-2006, 21:06
Voting over.
The execution will be up in a few hours; I have a few other things to do.
Seamus Fermanagh
12-11-2006, 21:13
That's why the current case against Seamus isn't built primarily on the predictions of my method (though that's what originally called my attention to him). It's built more on the psychological, subjective methods that I've come to distrust so much (grr). I still recommended Seamus for lynching because, well, sometimes you just have to make a choice.
Don't dismiss qualitative analysis as a tool, Kommo, the key to using it effectively is rigorous attention to self explanation and a clear delineation of the observer's biases, etc. This allows the reader to make reasonable assessments of the validity of the observations and inferences made. Remember, a great deal of what is thought of as "hard" science still involves some measure of interpretation. The key to effective analysis is the rigor of you efforts to ensure validity and reliability as a basis for making solid inferences.
Assuming my death does not win the game for the town:juggle2: , it'll be down to:
3-1 odds, one mafia is dead but if you miss the other he wins.
2-2 odds, in which case my lynch loses it for everyone.
I don't like them apples:no: , though Sasaki is confident....take that as you will.
Reenk Roink
12-11-2006, 21:17
The fine sleuthing of theRTWguru is lived up to!
I have a feeling this game is over
Craterus
12-11-2006, 23:29
Mmm. Me too. But I didn't think we had a chance for quite a while. :sorry:
GeneralHankerchief
12-12-2006, 00:53
Chief of Police Beirut was quite proud of his house. It had been in his family for several generations, spanning wars, famines, and previous attacks by the mafia. History was made in that house. He and his family had been raised in that wonderful, beautiful house.
The house now was home of the third voting spot, after the town square and his office had been meteored thanks to the Wrath of God. It was by far the most comfortable of the three locations, but still a little bit cramped.
"Okay gentlemen," the Chief of Police announced to everyone in his sitting room, "the votes have been tallied and by a count of 4-2, Seamus Fermanagh is sentenced to death."
He began speaking much faster. "Seamus, before you are hit with a bluntobject doyouhaveanylastwords?"
"Pardon?"
Beirut groaned. "DoYouHaveAnyLastWords?"
"Yes, actually, I do. Well, this has been a rather terrible time for the Frontroom, has it not? The numbers have dwindled so much, that this poor village is near extinction. And now, since you have executed yet another innocent, there will be two more killings tomorrow, bringing our numbers down to four. That is, only if God/General Hankerchief decides, in his everlasting mercy, not to kill anybody else himself, for if he does then our number will be down even further, to three. Now, since I am definitely not a mafioso, our only hope is that you have already executed one mafioso, for if you have not then they will outnumber the villagers and almost certainly vote in a bloc... I wish the best of-"
"Shut up! Everybody out!" Beirut cut Seamus off in midsentence, looking up oddly at the sky. He ran out of the house, and after a second everybody followed.
It was just in time too, for as soon as the last villager exited, another fiery meteor descended, completely obliterating what used to be the glorious house of the Chief of Police.
Beirut was livid. "Ignoramus, you didn't vote! You owe me a new house!" Before he could stop himself, he took out his gun and fired it six times at Iggy, who went down. Beirut stood there, looking at the giant crater that used to be his home for a few minutes.
"Uh, sir...? What about Seamus?"
"Oh, right." Beirut reloaded his gun and fired it once at Seamus. It hit him in the head, killing him instantly.
He seemed totally lost. He stared at his house for a few more minutes, finally screaming at the sky. "WHY ME, GOD? ALL I'M TRYING TO DO IS TO SAVE THE TOWN HERE! WHY MUST YOU BE PUNISHING ME? IF I'M THE NEW JOB JUST TELL ME!!!"
The five remaining villagers took this as their cue to exit.
Here is the voting total for Round 7:
Seamus Fermanagh: 4 (Don Corleone, Xiahou, Crazed Rabbit, Craterus) :skull:
Xiahou: 2 (Dutch_guy, Seamus Fermanagh)
Didn't vote: 1 (Ignoramus)
~~~~~~~
Still alive: (5)
Craterus
Xiahou
Don Corleone
Crazed Rabbit
Dutch_guy
Wrath of God/Committed seppuku:
Divine Wind
Drisos
God's Grace
Masy
Silver Rusher
Ignoramus
Killed:
UltraWar
Sir Moody
Pannonian
Evil_Maniac From Mars
Sasaki Kojiro
theRTWGuru
Kommodus
Proletariat
AggonyDuck
doc_bean
Csar
Sigurd Fafnesbane
Kagemusha
Destroyer of Hope
Executed:
Hepcat
Banquo's Ghost
Zalmoxis
Husar
discovery1
Reenk Roink
Seamus Fermanagh
Kommodus
12-12-2006, 02:55
Well, this is it. If Reenk was right, and two mafiosi remain, then it's game over - total mafia victory. I'd be embarrased, of course, but not too disheartened, as I still have other ideas to try for the next game - whatever that may be.
If there's only one mafioso left, then the town still has one more shot. But we'll find out quite soon whether or not that's true. :sweatdrop:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-12-2006, 08:58
hmm, bible reference in the execution.
Looks like there will be 3 people tomorrow, going completely randomly that's a 25% chance of winning for town. Good thing it won't be random lol.
Don Corleone
12-12-2006, 14:15
I think we're pretty much done for. Sasaki has accused so many people so many times so vehemently, I'm not even sure if I'm mafia or I'm not. (For the record, I'm not). That's one thing I really don't like about these games. People say so many things, most of which they themselves don't even believe, it's impossible to actually sort out fact from fiction. Any true clues get drowned out in a sea of noise.
Reenk Roink
12-12-2006, 16:06
Good thing it won't be random lol.
Hope you're right about Dutch_guy... :worried:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-12-2006, 16:15
I think we're pretty much done for. Sasaki has accused so many people so many times so vehemently, I'm not even sure if I'm mafia or I'm not. (For the record, I'm not). That's one thing I really don't like about these games. People say so many things, most of which they themselves don't even believe, it's impossible to actually sort out fact from fiction. Any true clues get drowned out in a sea of noise.
Well here's the thing Don. I may appear vehement all the time but I'm not really.
Banquo: Pretty serious, but only because it was early on. If he was still alive now I wouldn't lynch him for that.
Reenk: Pretty serious, but he had to be lynched for other reasons.
Seamus: Serious
Tomorrow's target: Serious.
The rest of the people I went after I was just checking out to be sure.
Dutch_guy
12-12-2006, 16:51
Hope you're right about Dutch_guy... :worried:
Have I missed something ?
:balloon2:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-12-2006, 17:24
Have I missed something ?
:balloon2:
Oh, what was that! :stare:
Dutch_guy
12-12-2006, 18:31
Oh, what was that! :stare:
A question ...
:balloon2:
Reenk Roink
12-12-2006, 19:18
A question ...
:balloon2:
Kommodus had suspected you, and Sasaki named you as the probable partner of Seamus. I don't know why Sasaki wanted to keep it on the down low (probably because it was such a bad case that it would weaken the already weak case against Seamus), but now that Seamus is dead, I don't see why I shouldn't publicize this. :shrug:
Just to note, I don't think you're guilty.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-12-2006, 19:51
Good thing it won't be random lol.
Hope you're right about Dutch_guy...
Have I missed something ?
:balloon3:
I wasn't going to bring it up until tomorrow because I didn't want to derail the Seamus discussion. But it's quite strange that you would find Reenks statement odd after I explicitly told you you were mafia in a couple pm's a day or two ago.
I'll make a full post when I have time.
Dutch_guy
12-12-2006, 20:12
I wasn't going to bring it up until tomorrow because I didn't want to derail the Seamus discussion. But it's quite strange that you would find Reenks statement odd after I explicitly told you you were mafia in a couple pm's a day or two ago.
I'll make a full post when I have time.
Oh I didn't know you had forwarded our PM's to Reenk*, that's why I found it quite odd. As I couldn't have possibilly known what may, or may not, have gone on around my back, hence the statement.
Had the conversation, which you quoted, gone the other way around I wouldn't have found it curious at all - simply because we exchanged PM's...
So, had that statement come from you I wouldn't have been surprised, at all. However, it came from someone who later stated he didn't think me guilty - a thing he's absolutely right in.
* which is what I gathered from Reenks Hope you're right about Dutch_guy, now I don't quite remember you accusing me / stating your suspicion of me, in this thread. Which then lead me to believe you may have exchanged thoughts over PM, maybe even using those PM's we sent eachother as a point of reference.
:balloon2:
Seamus Fermanagh
12-12-2006, 21:07
I wasn't going to bring it up until tomorrow because I didn't want to derail the Seamus discussion.
I rather wish you had. Unfortunately, I cannot seem to survive a mafia game. Other people have survived as a townie before, I've HEARD it's possible -- but my own experience has been depressingly consistent. :wall:
CN = murdered (as revealed detective WITH an active doctor no less)
GF2 = lynched in end-game as suspected mafia
RotM = murdered (without even an interesting note as to how:shame: )
M5 = lynched in end-game as suspected mafia
The only game I survived was Iggy's medieval attempt -- and probably only because it ended without conclusion.
Crazed Rabbit
12-12-2006, 21:15
I rather wish you had. Unfortunately, I cannot seem to survive a mafia game. Other people have survived as a townie before, I've HEARD it's possible -- but my own experience has been depressingly consistent.
You think you've got it bad? I've been playing since Mafia I and I've never survived until the end except for Mafia IV. I fear that streak will continue.
CR
Sasaki Kojiro
12-12-2006, 21:23
You think you've got it bad? I've been playing since Mafia I and I've never survived until the end except for Mafia IV. I fear that streak will continue.
CR
Meh, only if you're killed tonight.
Most people die. The only full game I've survived as townie was Mafia IV.
GeneralHankerchief
12-12-2006, 22:52
Day breaks in the Frontroom. All is quiet.
*ring ring*
"Hello?"
"This is Chief of Police Beirut. I have an idea. Everyone meet in the grassy field just outside of town. Sooner rather than later, please."
Beirut made this call five times, one each to the five remaining villagers of the former Frontroom. This would be part of his last-ditch plan to survive the mafia attacks. He gathered them in one place, and if anyone tried to assault, then they would all take that person down as a team. Strength in numbers.
When the five villagers met in the field, they were all silent. Nobody trusted anybody. Nobody dared to ask for weapons, either. This would be one brutally long day.
The hours passed. The sun rose higher into the sky. The only sound was the wind blowing. Finally, at around 1:00 in the afternoon (13:00 for you military time people), Beirut brought out some food. "Lunch, anyone?" he asked. The townspeople eagerly rustled over to the food, let down their guard, and began to eat.
The moment of truth had arrived.
A booming voice, different from God's but still alarming, sounded. A figure ran out into the open, carrying a machine gun. Even from a distance, the villagers could see a black void where the face was supposed to be and a wide-brimmed hat with grapes set upon the top.
The Wanax had arrived to finish the town off.
"FOOLS! YOU HAVE SET YOURSELF UP IN THE PERFECT POSITION TO DEFEND FROM AN INTERNAL ATTACK, BUT YOU HAVE NOT WEIGHED ALL OF THE FACTORS!"
Oh, great. The Wanax was about to kill them all and still spout words of wisdom.
"IN YOUR MISGUIDED CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE LOCATION OF YOUR ATTACKER, YOU HAVE FAILED TO ACCOUNT FOR ONE VARIABLE - THAT YOUR ATTACKER COULD COME FROM THE OUTSIDE!"
"How?" asked one villager. "We have everyone accounted for."
"FOOLISH MORTAL," boomed The Wanax, coming ever closer to the villagers but still not firing, "I AM THE WANAX - I AM UNFATHOMABLE! I AM INVINCIBLE! I HAVE UNLIMITED POWERS!"
"You have let your guard down," said Beirut, grinning, and he fired two shots with his pistol where The Wanax's eyes would normally be. The mighty, invincible, unfathomable Wanax went down. Yelling in triumph, the villagers ran over to the body of their fallen enemy.
Upon further investigation, the villagers found out that the black void was just a mask!
"Wow," Beirut said to himself, "Banquo's Ghost would have never expected this." Out loud, he proclaimed: "Let's go and unmask this sucker."
They all did it together, but gasped when they saw what was beneath...
...
...
...
...it was the face of a robot! A robot with flashing red eyes and a clearly evil look on its face, not to mention.
"HELP HELP, OH ME OH MY I AM BLINDED, ERROR! ALERT! CODE SEVEN! THIS IS WANAX-BOT UNDER ATTACK! MY VISION IS NO LONGER FUNCTIONAL AND THE THREAT OF ATTACK IS IMMINENT!" Wanax-Bot boomed out, in an even louder voice than before. Most of the townspeople put their hands over their ears, but not Beirut.
"Wanax-Bot," he said, "who created and programmed you?"
There was only the sound of gears turning for a few seconds, and then:
"Erm... *wheep* Crazed Rabbit and Xiahou."
"You're lying. Who created and programmed you?"
"Do you confirm the question, O Chief of Police?"
"I do."
"Very well then." Wanax-Bot's voice grew unmistakably smarmy. "Password required. Incorrect password results in self-destruction, annihilating everything within a 2-mile radius. Please answer in 10... 9... 8..."
"Any ideas?" Beirut mouthed.
"7... 6... 5..."
"Anybody?"
"4... 3... 2... 1..."
"Nineteen," came a voice from the heavens, "for it's always nineteen." General Hankerchief had decided to be nice for once and decided to save the village! Talk about a deus ex machina!
"Correct password," said Wanax-Bot grudgingly. "Repeat question please."
"Who created and programmed you?"
"I was created and programmed in the image of my master, Reenk Roink. He was the true Wanax."
Reenk Roink the Wanax! The villagers murmered this to each other in shock.
"Reenk Roink gave me instructions to continue the killing if he and his partner, Seamus Fermanagh, were to be killed in action. I have failed in my mission."
"Indeed you have, Wanax-Bot," said Beirut triumphantly. "I am giving you one final order - to shut down permanently. Comply."
"THIS IS WANAX-BOT, COMPLYING WITH FINAL ORDER TO SHUT DOWWWWNNNN-*" He, or it rather, was gone.
"Back to the village, everyone! For the mafia have been defeated, and the Frontroom is saved! It's time to PARTY!"
The celebration lasted long into the night. There was much rejoicing. For the mafia were no more.
Here is the final status list. Congratulations to all of those who survived.
Survived: (5)
Craterus
Xiahou
Don Corleone
Crazed Rabbit
Dutch_guy
Wrath of God/Committed seppuku:
Divine Wind
Drisos
God's Grace
Masy
Silver Rusher
Ignoramus
Killed:
UltraWar
Sir Moody
Pannonian
Evil_Maniac From Mars
Sasaki Kojiro
theRTWGuru
Kommodus
Proletariat
AggonyDuck
doc_bean
Csar
Sigurd Fafnesbane
Kagemusha
Destroyer of Hope
Executed:
Hepcat
Banquo's Ghost
Zalmoxis
Husar
discovery1
Reenk Roink
Seamus Fermanagh
Result:
TOWNSPEOPLE VICTORY! :medievalcheers:
Congrats to the villagers and thanks for another great game, everyone! Look for the commentary soon.
Seamus Fermanagh
12-12-2006, 23:27
Thanks for a fun go, General.
And to the rest of you as well. Ya'll got me good.:embarassed: Congrats.
I'll toss out commentary later as appropriate. Right now its off to confession.
Wooooooooo
Townspeople VICTORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sasaki Kojiro
12-12-2006, 23:29
hahahaha whaaaat!
NICE job Reenk. You reveal was off but you had me entirely convinced with all the effort you put into looking for mafia and how insulted you seemed. You even seemed to lose confidence in CR/X's guilt, ingenious.
Oh and Banquo, feel free to throw any rotten fruit my way :p
Sasaki Kojiro
12-12-2006, 23:42
Anyway! Seamus! Why did you put the lynch vote on Reenk.
Sure backfired when he convinced me he was detective, I thought that was you making sure he kicked the bucket :laugh4:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-12-2006, 23:49
And Dutch_guy why did you act so suspicious.
And Reenk what WAS in those screenshots you deleted?
Crazed Rabbit
12-12-2006, 23:56
BOOOOOO-YAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!!!!!
Oh man, what a great ending. Is everyone glad I voted for Reenk now? Huh? Huh? BOO-YAH!!!
I survived! Yes!! Now it's time to party!
Thanks a lot for an excellent game, GH. Good job fooling Sasaki into believing you Reenk. And Seamus - I only suspected you slightly over the rest - but it worked out well for the town.
Crazed Rabbit
PS - Looks like the ideological make up of the village might have shifted, huh? :beam:
Kagemusha
12-13-2006, 00:09
And the curse holds its power.~;) Personally i was completely out there in this game i must admit,completely off target.:charge:
Ha! I knew Reenk was in on it. :2thumbsup:
Good work on the Wanax btw....
Reenk Roink
12-13-2006, 00:32
Wait, so I was The Wanax? :huh:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 00:35
Wait, so I was The Wanax? :huh:
Yes you were you wanaxing wanax you. I said my kill write up was you all over.
Now what were those screenshots I'm wicked curious.
Sir Moody
12-13-2006, 00:38
Well now this over i better start my game soon (RTWGuru is next but i havent seen him around much lately) watch this space for my game (probably open it for signups noon tomorrow)
Reenk Roink
12-13-2006, 00:46
Yes you were you wanaxing wanax you. I said my kill write up was you all over.
I was a Mafia. Not The Wanax...
Only for a brief time though. GH sent me a PM halfway into the game saying one of the Mafia couldn't play anymore and so I would replace him. I killed AggonyDuck and then was lynched...
I never wrote a Wanax kill...
:huh:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 00:50
Wait, what?
Who was the first mafioso GH?
*confused*
also, those pm screenshots?
Reenk Roink
12-13-2006, 01:10
also, those pm screenshots?
Those were just regular detective screenshots. I used the three messages verbatim for my fake screens, although GH has given me the "innocent, sorry" message more than once.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 01:22
Those were just regular detective screenshots. I used the three messages verbatim for my fake screens, although GH has given me the "innocent, sorry" message more than once.
Hah, I thought so! I didn't think so for very long, but I thought so!
Reenk Roink
12-13-2006, 01:26
Hah, I thought so! I didn't think so for very long, but I thought so!
Well, I have another bombshell to drop: I actually am The Wanax.
I just wanted to play with your head a little more... :laugh4:
My write up will be posted shortly... :2thumbsup:
Wait, what?
Who was the first mafioso GH?
*confused*
also, those pm screenshots?
Masy probably.
Reenk Roink
12-13-2006, 01:29
Masy probably.
:laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4:
I can't believe people are still falling for my deceit... :2thumbsup: :beam: ~;p
:laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4:
I can't believe people are still falling for my deceit... :2thumbsup: :beam: ~;p
I didn't read your post before that. You dirty, dirty mafioso:beam:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 01:36
Well, I have another bombshell to drop: I actually am The Wanax.
I just wanted to play with your head a little more... :laugh4:
My write up will be posted shortly... :2thumbsup:
********
Reenk Roink
12-13-2006, 01:55
I hate having the last post...
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 01:58
Vote: The Evil Donut
Who is this evil donut and why are you voting him?
Reenk Roink
12-13-2006, 01:59
First of all this explains everything... (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKU81hc1aYI)
Well, this was my first time being Mafia, and I wanted to make it count. I quickly developed a persona which I always wanted to do, and christened him “The Wanax” This was to add a bit of “Reenkness” to the game, while at the same time, obfuscating and confounding a lot of things. I actually hoped for people to bicker about The Wanax and they did; they even lynched a guy for it! :grin: I added a few things about him (grape hat) to build his character, but none of these things would have ever even remotely pointed to me. While I was implicated as a “historian” for EB (just a beta tester) and my posts in the Monastery previously before (in Mafia III), this “Wanax” thing was a very obscure reference in the first place, and I didn’t expect it to bring problems for me later.
“Wanax” is the title of Mycenaean high king who is either semi-divine or has a connection with the divine. They lorded over their fortified citadels and palaces. Now the word “Wanax” went out of use for kings after the end of the Mycenaean period (it was still used in Homer to denote Zeus as the high king of the gods) and the word basileus or chieftain became the new word for the tribal chiefs. Even the prominent basileus of the Dark Age societies was just called that. The story of The Wanax wanting to reclaim his lands means just that, he wants to bring back the former glory of his palace citadel which has denigrated into this farming village.
One important aspect about my character is that I gave him a European theme. I used common British spellings by adding “u” after “o” and making my “z” an “s”, as well as using European diction like “flat” for “house”.
I also changed how I used quotes and my writing style.
My partner, Seamus Fermanagh, and I got into contact quickly, and we had the ideal amount of communication. We both planned our kills, and informed the other of them beforehand, and proceeded to let the game’s progression determine our kills. I think our communication was perfect as could be. Seamus was a great partner! :2thumbsup:
We had two main worries which we began to address before the game started:
1) The end of game worries… (weren’t we right? ~;p)
2) The detective…
Of course, Sasaki Kojiro and Kommodus became troublesome later, but that was essentially unpreventable.
First round was essentially random. I killed UltraWar because he was the first on the list… Of course, people started nagging me about abstaining, courteously, and I very nearly made an early exit. I resolved to never do that again (the novelty was getting old too) and luckily survived. I was worried about all the attention I received due to that incident, but also took comfort in the fact that people who nearly get lynched early on are usually forgotten about.
I was worried about Pannonian’s behavior by the second round. He seemed like a detective with his analyzing behavior, and so I evilly decided to kill my benefactor. :evil: Seamus got rid of Evil_Maniac From Mars for the same reason (suspecting a detective). This round, it was Banquo’s Ghost who took the heat for my “Wanax” thing, and everything was going to plan. I also began planning a possible detective alibi at this time, and was going to see how it panned out in the crucial endgame.
Round three saw more of the same style. theRTWguru had revealed before, and he quickly became an enigma to me. We decided to be cautious and take him out then; Seamus got the honors. As for me, I took aim at Sasaki. People have criticized me for this, but I was certain that I was doing the right thing then, and even in retrospect with all the trouble Sasaki caused, I stand behind my decision (particularity because I don’t think anything would have changed if I didn’t kill Sasaki). Frankly, I savored that kill. It also started the streak of a particularly creative and outrageous stretch of kills (sabotaged camera, Swedish cocktail, strangulation by mouse cord, and cannibalism by Trix-crazed children). Seamus also began his Bible themed kills, thus edifying his own persona. Of course, oddly enough, I was named the “bible-thumper”. :rolleyes:
I decided to finish off Kommodus at round four. This would get him on my tail later, but frankly, I knew he was going to be more active as the game progressed in the critical end stage anyway, and so I really don’t regret killing him. A Kommodus without a vote is better than a Kommodus with a vote, and most people actually get less active once they’re killed. My reasoning was solid and I stand behind my decision (though I wish Kommodus would have kept playing M2:TW).
For round five, I decided to employ a stratagem to further compound the situation. I let The Wanax rest for awhile and knocked off AggonyDuck. Of course, I gave him a death concerning MP. :wink:
It was the period between round five and six where the entire game exploded into a deliciously juicy web or manipulation, deceit, and all around playing everyone. I feel so villainous and yet it was tremendous fun. :grin: I actually preferred this kind of loss to the alternative of winning without having been able to do all the things I did (of course, winning while doing all the things I did would be the best, but you can’t always get everything you want). Kommodus named me as a likely Wanax. Clever guy he was, but Reenkmaistro did have tricks up his sleeve. I quickly used my reveal as a detective. By this time, I was all but sure that the real detective was theRTWguru, so I did this confidently. I put forth my “investigations”, showed my “PM’s”, and argued my case passionately. Surprisingly, I convinced Kommodus enough for him to PM me. He for the most part, believed me and my deceit. He also began to argue on my behalf! :laugh4:
Of course, there was also Sasaki. :laugh4: Like a “rabid dog” he attacked me, giving all sorts of reasons as to why I was guilty. I argued back, and hoped that by pushing a sort of vendetta, I would entertain the others with the display and prevent them from concentrating on important issues. Of course, his case was weak against mine, and I knew I had a good chance to survive a lynching. Crazed Rabbit and Xiahou would naturally be against me, but that is only two. Others like Kagemusha, Craterus, and, Don Corleone believed me and my spin around.
However, I decided that it would be best for me to die this round. Why? Well, I knew that death would give me more validity, and also allow me unhampered opportunity to manipulate and deceive people. I sent a PM to Seamus, telling him to cast the crucial vote. What an ironic way to leave the game, having your own partner kill you. It was a sacrifice, but it was necessary.
I also played the martyr part, knowing that my reputation would be important when I was dead.
One thing remained very dangerous though: Kommodus. He had sent me a PM saying that Ignoramus and Seamus were his prime suspects in that order, and they were who I should investigate. The fact that Kommodus had Seamus on his targets worried me, and the possibility of Ignoramus being a test (someone who Kommodus thought innocent, but wanted to see if I would implicate him) added to my decision of allowing myself to be lynched (so as to keep Kommodus thinking I was detective without having to take his test).
In fact, though at the time, given the circumstances, I was certain I had chosen the right course of action, in retrospect, this would have been a decision that I would take back (with the gift of foresight)… :shrug:
The lynch came, and Seamus was sent another Wanax kill (The Wanax can never die, only the actors who play him :laugh4:). Round seven was just crazy. I have never lied so copiously or convincingly in my life. I used emotional manipulation as well, with sappy sob posts and PM’s that “nobody ever listened to me”, other posts emphasizing my martyr status, and of course, the detective appeal. I had basically all the villagers behind me at this point, and even Sasaki became convinced of my detectivehood. We all know how Kommodus fingered Seamus, and he was about to die. Initially, I supported the death as well (to sever all connection between me and Seamus). Then, after Crazed Rabbit and Xiahou had cast their votes, I brought my final stratagem: the CR-Xiahou tandem. Actually, it really was uncanny how closely together they voted, but yes, I had been planning this since round six. I vehemently posted against them, sending PM’s to everyone to change their votes. I told Dutch_guy and Craterus to “stop fighting and unite against a common enemy”. It initially worked, and in quick succession, it went from 3-0 to 3-3, but two things didn’t happen. One Ignoramus never responded. This was fatal as I was sure he would join my side. Two, Don Corleone didn’t buy it. I didn’t expect him to, because of Seamus voting for him in the first place, but I tried anyway (he was my only hope).
Well, you basically know the rest… :shrug:
We couldn’t pull it off in the end, and the incredible difficulty of General Hankercheif’s game remains. It is a great challenge though, and probably the most fun for Mafia to play.
I’d like to:
1) Thank GH for hosting yet another great game.
2) Thank Seamus for being such a great partner
3) Apologize for my deceit and manipulation, and if I was ever terse with anyone. It was just The Wanax talking.
Who is this evil donut and why are you voting him?
Sasaki=Evil Donut
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 02:09
Sasaki=Evil Donut
Noooo I don't even like donuts.
Great write up Reenk. It seems so obvious now...gah!
Kommodus
12-13-2006, 02:10
...
...
...
...I'm still waiting for the real ending to all of this.
You know, the one where we've all been had by another great GeneralHankerchief jest, and the mafia have actually pulled off a victory!?
...
...hm.
Ok, allowing myself some cautious optimism, look at what else, besides the curse of Kagemusha, held true in this game...
Kommodus and his Amazing Numerical Methods!
Now, to be sure, I did the wrong thing plenty of times. Reenk Roink, that was one heck of a fake reveal. While not completely convinced, I was convinced enough to attempt to save your life for one more round - even after my numerical analysis had picked you out. Fortunately, good 'ol Sasaki had my back, and bolstered the case where my confidence faltered. He did the same in the case of Seamus when I was forced, repeatedly, to admit how shaky my conclusions were.
BTW, my PM to you, in which I asked you to investigate Iggy and Seamus, were partially an attempt to see how you would respond. You were right to suspect that I didn't completely trust you.
Great game, everyone! Reenk Roink and Seamus Fermanagh, I think you both did a tremendous job as mafiosi. It is a really difficult job, I know.
Thanks again to GeneralHankerchief for another splendid installment! As I've said before, no matter how many mafia games there may be, and how cleverly they are planned and narrated, the original will always be the best. I always welcome this challenging test of my analytical skills.
The method I used in this game, as I've said before, was completely new, and based on entirely different principles than the ones before. I really wasn't sure whether or not it would work, and still feel that I got a bit lucky. When I first had something worth revealing, Reenk Roink, Ignoramus, and Seamus Fermanagh were my top suspects. Later on, Ignoramus fell off this list, leaving the two mafiosi.
I have further enhancements planned to this method, which will hopefully improve its speed accuracy. My first method (vote indexing) was too unreliable for continued use, and my second method was partially dependent on being able to see activity in the profiles of players, rendering it slightly unfair (and susceptible to invisible mode).
This method, however, relies only on information publicly available in the thread, so it is both fair and powerful. Unlike in Mafia IV, where I promised never to use the method again, I will use this again. It is defeatable, so to the future mafia I say: bring it on! :duel:
Again, thanks for the game everyone! Congratulations to the successful village!
Kommodus
12-13-2006, 02:29
I decided to finish off Kommodus at round four. This would get him on my tail later, but frankly, I knew he was going to be more active as the game progressed in the critical end stage anyway, and so I really don’t regret killing him. A Kommodus without a vote is better than a Kommodus with a vote, and most people actually get less active once they’re killed. My reasoning was solid and I stand behind my decision (though I wish Kommodus would have kept playing M2:TW).
Your reasoning was solid, Reenk - it's true that I have lost interest in some games after getting killed. However, this time there were a couple of things going against you:
1. I had just been killed in Csar's game, and to die so quickly in both games, well, it kind of irked me. I had hoped to be active in one game.
2. I had a partially completed system - one I originally hoped to use in GF2, but hadn't finished.
Basically, I really had been all caught up with M2:TW before you killed me. However, after reading of my untimely death at work, when I went home that evening I proceeed straight to my computer without delay and proceeded to finish writing the program.
BTW, I actually really liked the way my death was written about. While my real philosophy doesn't actually correspond with the one I "expressed" in the story, I liked the idea of dying a "clever" death.
So... thanks for a great death! And again, great game - as I said, you did have me mostly convinced. I was sure my methods had at last gone wrong. Ah well - maybe next time! :2thumbsup:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 02:30
I admit your Numerical methods baffle me Kommodus. They're deadly accurate. It's funny you should say that, you bolstered my confidence in my methods quite a bit...I didn't think I had enough of a case to go after him until you named him with your method.
Presumably they could be beaten by someone who acts like a townie...which they should be doing anyway. If I'm mafia again I hope I can pretend that well :sweatdrop:
Reenk Roink
12-13-2006, 02:33
Thanks for the complements. :bow:
I hope everyone liked their kills. I wanted to go all philosophical and yet absurd. My last kill was written up actually. It had some dialogue about Hume (last of the three British empiricists: Locke (Kommodus), Berkeley (Csar), Hume (didn't get a chance :sad:). The kill method was just silly. ~;p
Kommodus
12-13-2006, 02:45
I admit your Numerical methods baffle me Kommodus. They're deadly accurate. It's funny you should say that, you bolstered my confidence in my methods quite a bit...I didn't think I had enough of a case to go after him until you named him with your method.
Presumably they could be beaten by someone who acts like a townie...which they should be doing anyway. If I'm mafia again I hope I can pretend that well :sweatdrop:
Actually, I plan to soon write up a summary of all three methods, with some explanation - though not quite enough to give the mafia the information they need to avoid detection.
This third method will probably be my last truly "new" method, as it has lots of room for tweaking and adjustment. It is probably the most difficult for the mafia to avoid. Methods #1 and #2 had relatively straightforward ways of being defeated. This one, on the other hand, sets a trap that the mafia fall into unconsciously, without realizing what they are doing. They could be caught by it even if they knew precisely what it was.:rifle:
Seamus Fermanagh
12-13-2006, 02:50
Here's my game "diary" for your review.
From the perspective of Seamus
First Night
Got the nod from Hanky tonight and learned of my partnership with Reenk. A couple of brief PM’s later and we’d decided to just tap a couple of victims – no real rhyme or reason. Had my daughter (aged 4) pick a number from 1 to 10 and another from 1 to 3. She picked 7 and 3, which worked out to the 7th of the 3rd decade (27) so Moody got the chop from me. Nothing personal, just business.
Started scheming about a counter reveal or other dodge should it be necessary. I’ll swat up an idea or three and run ‘em past RR and GH.
First Day
Sigurd opened up the discussion and got a bandwagon going on himself – at least a small one – though a lot of folks abstained. Reenk abstained courteously as per usual, and I sniped at it – as per usual. EMFM, in abstaining, phrased it “an innocent” – possible detective. Barring better info or a lead from Reek, he’ll buy my next offing.
Idea for “false flag” – setting up a false PM for me as a “secret” doctor and staging a false murder on Reenk later in the game. Have to run it past GH.
Oh well, GH says I can’t do a fake failed murder – back to scheming.
Meanwhile, Hepcat lost the vote and will exit stage left. Earlier commentaries were correct, you really do spend the first round or two hoping its anybody but a mafioso. I think we’re in trouble with Reenk. Xiahou went after him purely for the abstain thing at first, and Duck just for kicks – but Reenk’s voting response got X-man’s wires fuzzed, and he’s not the type to give ground easily. Tough one to ponder.
Second Night
Sent my kill orders off to Hanky. Goodnight EMFM – your phrasing did get you selected for my attention. Reenk has noted that Pannonian will not be feeling at all well soon. Reenk too is hunting detective. We shall see.
Day Two
Now wondering if I should take Guru’s confession seriously. It’s not orthodox, but constantly posting investigation results would have an effect of its own. I’ll check, but he may need silencing. Banquo is getting wagoned – not quite sure how the wanax is killing him but it is. Okay, it’s a little later in this long round and now DivWind and BG are tied at 3. So far, Reenk seems back under the radar – but X-man has yet to weigh in.
The Tie is fine with us, of course, as no Mafiosi are on the list. I let Sasaki convince me to vote Banquo. This is unlikely to deter Sasaki from trying to lynch me if he starts to believe I’m hinky, but maybe I can delay that threat just a touch.
Night Three
Reenk PM’d to say he was going to do for Sasaki. As far as I can tell, this won’t have any posting impact – unlike myself or Kommo or Iggy, his own demise won’t slow Sasaki much, just deprive him of a vote and confirm his innocence. Still, we have to get him anyway, and relatively early might throw a bit of red herring around. I’d already told Reenk that I’d planned to take Guru down.
Why Guru? Well, his “confession” wasn’t likely to be true, but he seemed so interested in ending up dead that it was hard to deny him that (especially as I had no idea who was more likely to be a detective than he) – plus, it let me throw some stuff in the game with the quotation from John. John 16:24 “Hitherto you have not asked anything in my name. Ask, and you shall receive, that your joy may be full.” Since he asked to be murdered, he received.
Still worried about the end-game. With numbers narrowing, suspicion must trend my way. How to defuse/delay it? Reenk seems in the clear – because Xiahou was off eating turkey? If so, we’ll take it.
Day Three
Man, I was just doing a little “Pulp Fiction” style Bible quotation. Guru asked, and he did receive. Folks are reading a lot into it. Probably have to add one to the next kill – more work. The unblinking eye symbol was and is the logo of the Pinkerton DETECTIVE agency – no more to it than saying I’m hunting detectives. Didn’t mean to cause confusion with that. Still, the goal is to be as close to un-patterned as I can get with the kills, Guru fit for that. If we fall into a rut, then the pack will be on us quickly.
Sasaki now taps Reenk for jumping in quick – dang he is sharp. RR has jumped in quicker than usual for him twice now, and Sasaki has his antennae out and functioning. I’ll follow on with Sasaki’s peck at Zalmoxis. He’s giving me a nice lead in for my vote that I don’t have to overplay. If that’s bait for a trap, I still think I can side-step that one.
Night Four
RR said Kommodus was next. Might be a useful kill since Kommo is bright and has, so far, participated less posthumously. Hopefully more payoff than with Sasaki on that score. I picked one of the more frequent contributors based on post count who had yet to draw any real suspicion – Prole. Since the Bible quote was such a hit, I thought I’d add another, but Prole hadn’t done anything silly like Guru so I just picked one of the lady authors to make the female connection thing (weak, I know). Picked Judith over Esther since it’s apocryphal to some and might stir things up more. Judith 13:10 “And she struck twice upon his neck, and cut off his head, and took off his canopy from the pillars, and rolled away his headless body.”
Day Four
Wow! Husar opens discussion and draws a wagon! I’ll sit back on this one and vote off-target. Town’s doing our work here. Weak wagon at the end, but enough with all the non-voters to kill him.
Night #5:
Doc Bean draws my attention tonight. He’s been active this game and I can hammer the discussion down a bit with his death, since his participation usually drops off. Used the physician heal thyself line for a quotation – just playing off the “handle.” Reenk took out the Duck (I’d stayed clear of that, figuring Reenk would like the chance to do for Aggony, based on earlier comments).
Day #5:
The killings made little splash, but then the debate started with Csar accusing Iggy. Others were suspicious of Disco. I just played this straight – ignoring that I’m the bad guy, and just voted for the lurker I’d have gone after as a townie after backing off of the hit on Csar. I scanned things just before bed and leaping catfish Kommo has named Reenk. No preamble no explanation, just here’s what my research shows. Whatever technique he uses – research, stats, or frimping tarot – he’s got some tool there. My style has been WAY different then Reenk, so I guess we’ll see how soon I’m tumbled. Sheesh – I think the townies will have this one. We needed both of us AND a little Wog action to close things up with the best hope of success. Others will follow this lead hard.
Hmm. Ended up with a tie-breaker that killed Disco. Reenk is fighting hard for his life, using the classic “I’m really the detective” ploy. The very fact that he did it piecemeal should torpedo him, but he has verve and cran both, perhaps he will pull it off. Every round he can keep alive is one longer for me to dodge trouble – and so far they haven’t twigged me yet.
Night #6
Crapola. Was going to take Don C. out – using a GF reference – but Reenk wants me to kill Sigurd. He thinks he can get Don C. lynched and possibly play up the detective role for a while, since Kommo can’t pin down his discrepancies exactly. I’ll play along, he’s been a reliable partner thus far and my exposure is minimal. Sigurd;s handle lets me find my quotation quickly – I’ll use the older name for Revelation to frustrate – with a dragon being cast down. Now let’s see if Reenk can do it.
Day #6
Wow! So far Reenk has picked up votes only from the unvoting dead. The one’s who should be stringing him up are either taking out after Don on casting about on their own. What an impressive display of brinksmanship on Reenk’s part. I will probably vote for his death to ally suspicion a bit, I just have to work it in less than obviously. Went for the analytical hammer on him – my usual approach anyway – and it helps the analysis to know he really is mafia.
Night #7
Reenk bought the farm like a trooper. We set it up so that I was the hammer – might as well get the most mileage from the inevitable. Reenk was not going to get past CR or X-man. I’ll execute the remaining pair he declared innocent (Kage & DoH), using a forwarded wanax death for Kage (thanks Reenk!) and my own usual for Destro. His quotation will be “Against you I will send destroyers, each with his axe: they shall cut down your choice cedars, and cast them into the fire” from Jeremiah. Hopefully, this will buy a round or two at other’s expense. Still think I’m gonna fall one short:
These kills make 7; One lynch makes 6; Two more kills = 4; One more lynch = 3
Gotta get by both of these next lynches to win. Tough.
Day #7
Doesn’t appear to me that I’ll make it through. Kommo is correctly characterizing me as off-norm (not by a bunch, but I’m sure the discrepancies exist). Sasaki is, therefore, at me like a terrier – he’s happiest on the attack (and he’s good at parsing meaning drat him!). In an interesting irony, my vote to condemn Reenk on the round we felt he was a goner is now coming up as ammo against me since I lynched the “detective.” Too funny. Under this level of scrutiny, I can be 98% on track and still get the axe. Reenk is playing his end of it for all its worth, but I am sort of hamstrung. If I defend myself too strongly it proves my guilt. If I defend myself inconsistently at all, I’m guilty. This is even tougher because I am, of course, the evil mafia scum. Vexing times at the end-game.
Note to self – this is why detectives get lynched so readily. It is extremely difficult to be perfectly consistent in all of your responses without being openly honest and completely forthright from the outset (which gets you murdered quickly). Catch-22.
Reenk’s work and my defense (mixed as it was) has been enough to create a tie. Unfortunately, I think Iggy will vote with me (I have some small chance here) but any other vote change – with the possible exception of Don C -- will come against me. If the votes are opened to the dead, the votes will CASCADE against me. I therefore suspect that the jig is up.
Reenk is a staunch fellow to work with. I’m kicking myself for the inconsistencies in my own effort. Need to be scrupulously attentive to post count, post brevity, percentage analytical v bantering posts, number of active votes and the content of all PM’s. All must be consistent or you will be twigged and gaffed. In the end-game its you versus everyone and the everyone only have to keep track of 4/5 names. Tough odds.
Afterwards:
Mafia wins are going to be sparse for some time. Kommo’s method is not flawless, but give him 3 or 4 rounds of data and he’s likely to nab you. As the field narrows, you have a very great difficulty staying out of the line of fire. False detective reveals seem to be a useful tool, but I suspect the tolerance for those is waning. Mafiosi need to work on a few dodges to get better at it.
This was fun, and challenging, and frustrating. A good game win or lose. Thanks to the General for hosting it. Thanks to Reek for his wanaxing support. Thanks to all of you for an enjoyable if insurmountable challenge….insurmountable this time.
I look forward to Hanky's write-up of this. He should have some good points for us to integrate as well as some strong commentary from his GM perspective. Thanks again all!
Seamus Fermanagh
12-13-2006, 02:57
Actually, I plan to soon write up a summary of all three methods, with some explanation - though not quite enough to give the mafia the information they need to avoid detection.
This third method will probably be my last truly "new" method, as it has lots of room for tweaking and adjustment. It is probably the most difficult for the mafia to avoid. Methods #1 and #2 had relatively straightforward ways of being defeated. This one, on the other hand, sets a trap that the mafia fall into unconsciously, without realizing what they are doing. They could be caught by it even if they knew precisely what it was.:rifle:
I think you're right about the challenge to the mafia. As near as I can figure it, you would have to have your own posting style:
counted by overall number, general category, word count overall and by category, and the number of times checking the thread per day
so that you could be less than one SD off your "norm" regardless of role, and all of that IN ADDITION to the specific content of your posts which would have to be:
consistent with past style, wording, and mechanics, AND
not accidently including "revealer" tag words/phrases that signal your role.
Strangely enough, this probably makes Sasaki the ideal mafioso since his voluminous posting, aggressive style and veering humor give him a great baseline from which to play. Scary thought that.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 03:08
Nice write up Seamus :cheers:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 03:15
Strangely enough, this probably makes Sasaki the ideal mafioso since his voluminous posting, aggressive style and veering humor give him a great baseline from which to play. Scary thought that.
Heh, I'd like to try some day. Haven't really had a chance, in TGF1 I didn't have a style associated with me and could sit back and bandwagon...plus the town wasn't very good at this back then. Cosa Nuova I got named the first round...but honestly my strategy wasn't that smart, both my allies got caught (by you :/ ).
I still hold that it should be possible to fool Kommodus's system by simple doing just what you would do if you were townie. Of course that's what's so hard about being mafia. And you'd have to target your partner if the situation arose...heh.
I do think your mistake was in killing off certain people. I pm'd with Kommodus and Sigurd a lot knowing they were innocent. I'd have been wary if they were still alive.
Crazed Rabbit
12-13-2006, 03:31
First of all this explains everything...
Heh, I'd seen that video a couple days ago and was going to post it the next time you abstained.
Ditto on killing Sasaki and Kommodus. When you guys did that, I knew Sasaki and Kommodus were innocent and could trust them completely.
Furthermore I definately wouldn't have voted to kill off Reenk. The mafia could have voted for and taken some other player out, and you guys would've had one more round with two mafiosos.
Kommodus' new system will certainly present a challenge to future mafiosos.
Crazed Rabbit
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 03:34
Hmm now that I think of it, I do have a way to beat Kommodus's method. I think I'll keep it to myself though :P
Seamus Fermanagh
12-13-2006, 03:35
I still hold that it should be possible to fool Kommodus's system by simple doing just what you would do if you were townie. Of course that's what's so hard about being mafia. And you'd have to target your partner if the situation arose...heh.
I think its possible too, but I suspect it'll require a LOT of self research so as to be able to keep your profile close to baseline. Kommo is no fool and if he's got it properly charted, simple inferential statistics will show significant deviations up quickly.
I do think your mistake was in killing off certain people. I pm'd with Kommodus and Sigurd a lot knowing they were innocent. I'd have been wary if they were still alive.
I took out Sigurd at Reenk's request -- he was trying to frame someone and get off the hook. He wanted you dead -- I'd have probably waited a round or two. Having you there at the beginning of the endgame would help a notch -- I think.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 03:39
I think its possible too, but I suspect it'll require a LOT of self research so as to be able to keep your profile close to baseline. Kommo is no fool and if he's got it properly charted, simple inferential statistics will show significant deviations up quickly.
I would think if you were acting well enough those would all fall into place. Wouldn't have to know your posting time, just post naturally and it will be natural.
I took out Sigurd at Reenk's request -- he was trying to frame someone and get off the hook. He wanted you dead -- I'd have probably waited a round or two. Having you there at the beginning of the endgame would help a notch -- I think.
Well it was a gamble I guess. I rarely trust Sigurd. Funny story, the very night you killed Sigurd this was my PM to GH:
My bets are on Sigurd and Reenk. Or maybe not. Arg.
Sasaki
Crazed Rabbit
12-13-2006, 03:40
Edit:
Double post...sort of...
Crazed Rabbit
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 03:43
9 minute delay? Lol.
Reenk Roink
12-13-2006, 04:00
Yeah, in retrospect, the thing I would have back is the Seamus lynching me. It did seem like a good idea then, and I knew that I could be more persuasive dead than alive, but since Kommodus already had Seamus in sight, and Ignoramus was nowhere to be found, it didn't pan out.
I was also really hoping Don C would be the suspicious guy he was for awhile but it didn't pan out. At the time it seemed right...
Sasaki I would keep just for the novelty of the kill. :laugh4:
Oh, and to answer one last mystery:
The Dutch_guy reference was due to me sending in a kill for him, but then changing to Csar. GH just overlooked one. ~;p You see, I was really hoping to recruit Csar and use him as manipulation bait, so confident was I that I invoked his name; but he was too skeptical, and The Wanax showed in Kommodus's murder how he deals with skeptics... :grin2:
Kommodus
12-13-2006, 04:02
I think you're right about the challenge to the mafia. As near as I can figure it, you would have to have your own posting style:
counted by overall number, general category, word count overall and by category, and the number of times checking the thread per day
so that you could be less than one SD off your "norm" regardless of role, and all of that IN ADDITION to the specific content of your posts which would have to be:
consistent with past style, wording, and mechanics, AND
not accidently including "revealer" tag words/phrases that signal your role.
I think its possible too, but I suspect it'll require a LOT of self research so as to be able to keep your profile close to baseline. Kommo is no fool and if he's got it properly charted, simple inferential statistics will show significant deviations up quickly.
Er... I think you may be slightly missing the point, Seamus.
My task in this game was actually quite difficult. The thing is, everyone has their own posting style, and they all deviate statistically each game. Picking out the statistically significant facts from the big jumble of numbers proved to be rather more art than science. Had your statistics matched that from previous games too closely, the red flags would've been raised just as much, if not more.
The thing is, it's not enough to simply look for people who are deviating from past behavior, since as I said, everyone does that to some degree. The tricky part is looking for mafia-like behavior in the numbers. There's the rub - what exactly counts as mafia behavior? What do you look for, and what useful metrics can be devised to measure such a thing? There's simply no single precise measurement to use, and there's always more metrics to try. When you have this much data to work with, looking for patterns in it isn't easy.
Ultimately, anyone will do better with data that is well-organized and easy to query. (Ya learn a thing or two when you work with databases as long as I have.) That's what helped me in this game - rather more than simple numbers.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 04:06
Sure beats my method of re-reading p-a-t-i-e-n-t-l-y
I did quite enjoy my kill Reenk. Although Kommodus's kill with with the buxom henchwomen (They WERE henchwomen! :furious3: ) was great as well.
Kommodus
12-13-2006, 04:21
Oh, BTW, to both our mafia boys: great writeups! Very nice to see mafia carrying on the tradition of keeping a diary as the game is played. It definitely helps to resolve everything at the end. :2thumbsup:
Sasaki: What an interesting person you are. :yes: I guess, were I in your shoes, I'd prefer the buxom henchwomen as well.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 04:37
btw, GH, if you were wondering how this game didn't reach 1000 posts like TGF2, I decided to play my cards a little closer to my chest this game...63 pm's sent and recieved :p
GeneralHankerchief
12-13-2006, 04:45
btw, GH, if you were wondering how this game didn't reach 1000 posts like TGF2, I decided to play my cards a little closer to my chest this game...63 pm's sent and recieved :p
Eh, no worries. 900+ ain't bad at all.
Pannonian
12-13-2006, 05:45
Thanks for the complements. :bow:
I hope everyone liked their kills. I wanted to go all philosophical and yet absurd. My last kill was written up actually. It had some dialogue about Hume (last of the three British empiricists: Locke (Kommodus), Berkeley (Csar), Hume (didn't get a chance :sad:). The kill method was just silly. ~;p
Was my death supposed to imply I was full of it? :furious3:
Pannonian was found dead on his field. Every orifice of his body had been stuffed with manure.
:laugh4:
Kommodus
12-13-2006, 19:07
My last kill was written up actually. It had some dialogue about Hume (last of the three British empiricists: Locke (Kommodus), Berkeley (Csar), Hume (didn't get a chance :sad:). The kill method was just silly. ~;p
Hey, if you've got it written up, how about posting it? I'm curious to see how the game would've ended had we failed to get you guys. :yes:
Reenk Roink
12-13-2006, 19:58
Here ya go:
Victim’s was at home biting his nails timorously. He had witnessed his friends and neighbors murdered horrifically at a steady rate, until the numbers had dwindled to what he could count on one hand. His Bible lay unopened, as he did not want to see any potentially prophetic verses, and the farmer had burned and salted his vineyard, because of The Wanax.
It became not a question of if, neither was it a question of when. The question was: who? and how?
The answer had arrived through Victim’s front door. Standing at the doorway was a tall shadowy figure, wearing a wide-brimmed hat with grapes on it. The Wanax.
Victim quickly stammered: “The phasgana – I want the phasgana!”
The Wanax chuckled as he ate a grape: “The matter is not for you to decide.”
Victim continued to plead: “Please, just let the phasgana cut me and finish me off quickly.”
The Wanax replied: “Foolish man. How can you be so dogmatic to claim that the phasgana will cut you?”
Victim was confused: “Why commonsense of course.”
The Wanax replied: “Such miniscule intellect. Now, while I grant you, we may perceive the cut following the strike of the phasgana, we certainly do not perceive any connection between the two, and it follows that it is incorrect to apply any causation. Hume has made this clear.”
Victim replied: “What! That’s just retarded. Everyone knows a blade causes the cut.”
The Wanax replied: Idiot fool… Very well, continue to hold your superstitions of causation for the short life you have left.”
Victim saw his end, but he posed his final query: “Why? Why did you do all this? We said we would give you back your land.”
The Wanax answered: “The reason will be of no use to you, but as I think very highly of myself, I shall tell you anyway. You see – my gregarious father was The Wanax of this village and the land beyond, and everyone in the land was content and prosperous. I was raised in his image, to be just like him, to rule wisely and kindly. That was my destiny; until an incident changed everything. You see, I had a best friend, who used to go to school with me. We used to be inseparable, so close we were. But one day, in the middle of class, all that changed…”
The Wanax paused. Victim asked: “What? What happened?”
“HE FARTED IN CLASS AND EVERYONE THOUGHT IT WAS ME!” The Wanax boomed, voice full of rage and sorrow.
Victim could swear that tears began rolling down the cheeks of The Wanax, although the void remained static as ever. Intrigue overcoming his fear, Victim asked: “Who did it?”
The Wanax composed himself as he answered: “The legendary founder of your village – TosaInu.”
Victim’s body was not found and the way in which he was killed was unknown, as there was nobody left in the Frontroom, and the Frontroom itself had ceased to exist.
Craterus
12-13-2006, 20:06
Vote-changes from me helped to exectute both of those. :beam:
Good game, everyone.
Kommodus
12-13-2006, 20:14
:laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4:
So that was the Wanax's motive...
Very nice.
doc_bean
12-13-2006, 20:30
w00t we won !
we did win didn't we ? :inquisitive:
Kagemusha
12-13-2006, 20:50
Yes we did! Kommodus how would you analyze Kage´s curse on all this?
GeneralHankerchief
12-13-2006, 21:30
Nice avatar, Sasaki. :tongue:
Very interesting reads from Reenk and Seamus. With a little luck you'll be seeing mine soon.
Kommodus
12-13-2006, 21:41
Yes we did! Kommodus how would you analyze Kage´s curse on all this?
Hm... interesting question. Well, I'm not a superstitious person, so I'm disinclined to believe in an actual curse per se. However, there may be a rational explanation for the observed phenomenon.
Kagemusha, I suspect that you are often near the top of the suspect lists of many players in most games. This is in part because of your success in them, especially when playing the part of the villain. Therefore, when you die (especially when killed), everyone stops considering you a suspect and considers other possibilities more seriously.
This is one theory as to why the mafia often begin to fail once you are dead. However, it should be noted that in this game, the downfall of the mafia began before your death.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-13-2006, 21:57
Nice avatar, Sasaki. :tongue:
heh ~D
Thanks btw
Took a while for the request to go through for some reason, I'd almost forgotten about it.
Reenk Roink
12-13-2006, 22:57
Nice avatar, Sasaki. :tongue:
It's almost exactly how I pictured The Wanax. Just needs the wide brimmed hat with grapes on it. :grin2:
It's hard to believe we didn't make it to a thousand. :no:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-14-2006, 06:24
It's hard to believe we didn't make it to a thousand. :no:
We didn't have a final round.
And you lynched me.:whip:
I just couldn't keep spamming, was away over the weekend etc.
If everybody ina game was more active, 2000 might be possible, but I don't want to imagine how many additional hours of reading that would be per day.:sweatdrop:
Dutch_guy
12-14-2006, 16:14
And Dutch_guy why did you act so suspicious.
I wasn't acting suspicious, 't was simply my regular posting style. However, it did seem Sasaki and Kommodus found it quite suspicious, especially Sasaki, why is that ?
:balloon2:
Seamus Fermanagh
12-14-2006, 16:38
Dutch:
Nothing out of charcter there.
Sasaki is suspicious of everyone in a mafia game. He'd go after himself just as aggressively if he didn't know his own role from the outset. Actually, for all I know, he may go after himself even more aggressively but stick to PM's until he's cleared himself.
His mom could end up in the queue of other players and the only difference would be he'd go after her FIRST as a mark of respect.
Dutch_guy
12-14-2006, 16:49
Dutch:
Nothing out of charcter there.
Sasaki is suspicious of everyone in a mafia game. He'd go after himself just as aggressively if he didn't know his own role from the outset. Actually, for all I know, he may go after himself even more aggressively but stick to PM's until he's cleared himself.
His mom could end up in the queue of other players and the only difference would be he'd go after her FIRST as a mark of respect.
:beam:
Haha, well that certainly explains a lot Seamus :laugh:
:balloon2:
Kommodus
12-14-2006, 17:10
I wasn't acting suspicious, 't was simply my regular posting style. However, it did seem Sasaki and Kommodus found it quite suspicious, especially Sasaki, why is that ?
Hm... I don't remember you ever being particularly high on the top of my suspect list. I guess I'm just waiting for you to actually get selected as a mafioso one of these days; something tells me you'd be quite good at it.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-14-2006, 17:28
I wasn't acting suspicious, 't was simply my regular posting style. However, it did seem Sasaki and Kommodus found it quite suspicious, especially Sasaki, why is that ?
:balloon2:
I didn't like the way you told me via pm that you thought craterus was guilty, voted for him, and then jumped on the Reenk wagon with Craterus to tie up the vote, saving Seamus.
Also: Don, Crazed, Craterus, Xiahou, and Ignoramus were innocent.
Reenk Roink
12-14-2006, 17:58
It's hard to believe we didn't make it to a thousand. :no:
It's OK, I still think that the quality of the posts in this game is the best ever. Of course, I'm biased as a Mafia and I never played GF2, but at least it's up there with that game. :2thumbsup:
Sasaki Kojiro
12-14-2006, 18:06
I thought you were in GF2. I would have to place it over this game though, because there were two times I logged on expecting to see the game over and it wasn't, while this game was over before I thought it would be.
Dutch_guy
12-14-2006, 18:09
I didn't like the way you told me via pm that you thought craterus was guilty, voted for him, and then jumped on the Reenk wagon with Craterus to tie up the vote, saving Seamus.
Also: Don, Crazed, Craterus, Xiahou, and Ignoramus were innocent.
Hm... I don't remember you ever being particularly high on the top of my suspect list. I guess I'm just waiting for you to actually get selected as a mafioso one of these days; something tells me you'd be quite good at it.
Well, Kommodus, you probably didn't directly point a finger at me, but It did seem so in one of either Reenk's posts or one of Sasaki's. A post which I can't seem to find, whilst looking back.
Anyway, sorry for the blatant finger pointing on my part.
Sasaki,
Well, partly our PM correspondence (and at the same time your correspondence with Craterus) gave me that idea, that said, those mentioned weren't exactly cleared innocents at the time - now were they ? Yes, a strong case could be made in their favour, but nothing more.
Anyhow, great game guys, and kudo's to both Sasaki and Kommodus for always suspecting those who were mafioso. Good job, to say the least. Kommodus' method has yet to fail him, at least it seems that way, and while Sasaki's constant noise-making is irritating at times, it's ultimately quite a good tactic.
:balloon2:
Kommodus
12-14-2006, 18:49
Well, Kommodus, you probably didn't directly point a finger at me, but It did seem so in one of either Reenk's posts or one of Sasaki's. A post which I can't seem to find, whilst looking back.
You're right, actually - late in the game, when I sent a PM to Reenk indicating Seamus was my prime suspect, I told him I suspected you to a lesser extent.
You see, Sasaki was forwarding his private discussions with you to me. He included some commentary indicating you were a bit eager to agree with him about Craterus's possible guilt.
By the time Seamus was lynched, however, I don't think I had any strong suspects besides him.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-14-2006, 18:59
Sasaki,
Well, partly our PM correspondence (and at the same time your correspondence with Craterus) gave me that idea, that said, those mentioned weren't exactly cleared innocents at the time - now were they ? Yes, a strong case could be made in their favour, but nothing more.
:balloon2:
Yes, but going off a two mafioso theory your actions fit Seamus's partner rather nicely. Also, lots of ordinary things seem suspicious when I'm considering someone for mafioso.
Pannonian
12-14-2006, 19:02
Yes, but going off a two mafioso theory your actions fit Seamus's partner rather nicely. Also, lots of ordinary things seem suspicious when I'm considering someone for mafioso.
What, like breathing?
Sasaki Kojiro
12-14-2006, 19:05
What, like breathing?
:stare: :stare: :stare: :stare: :stare: :stare: :stare:
Banquo's Ghost
12-14-2006, 22:22
It was a very enjoyable game, thank you everyone.
Even if I did screw up the detective role. :embarassed: Sorry for that. Still, you managed very well without any of my help, though I was tempted to weigh in when Reenk was under suspicion. :smile:
I made a feeble attempt to subtley indicate my status by seeming to change my view on Sasaki's guilt once I had investigated him, but I just made my situation worse. When you hunt someone down Sasaki, there's not a lot a chap can do to get you off the scent!
Crazed Rabbit
12-14-2006, 22:48
Still, you managed very well without any of my help, though I was tempted to weigh in when Reenk was under suspicion. :smile:
That would have been somewhat helpful...
I agree that its usually best for the detective to keep their head down initially.
CR
Sasaki Kojiro
12-14-2006, 22:58
It was a very enjoyable game, thank you everyone.
Even if I did screw up the detective role. :embarassed: Sorry for that. Still, you managed very well without any of my help, though I was tempted to weigh in when Reenk was under suspicion. :smile:
I made a feeble attempt to subtley indicate my status by seeming to change my view on Sasaki's guilt once I had investigated him, but I just made my situation worse. When you hunt someone down Sasaki, there's not a lot a chap can do to get you off the scent!
Heh heh yes, sorry about that. Well what can you do. I'd expected you to claim if you were the detective.
Kudos on not weighing in on the Reenk thing though, makes the game much more fun.
Crazed Rabbit
12-14-2006, 23:26
Good point about not weighing in on Reenk making it more fun- it certainly was.
Interesting note; if Reenk was widely thought to have been mafia after his execution, Seamus could've gained protection that way. Here Reenk became thought of as the detective and left Seamus in an interesting conundrum.
Now we just have to wait for GH's commentary. BG's execution does seem to confirm his habit of occasionally posting clues in executions.
CR
Reenk Roink
12-15-2006, 00:50
I think Banquo was not allowed at all to post any clues that he was detective after he died. At least that's the message GH gave me in Mafia IV where I was detective.
GeneralHankerchief
12-15-2006, 01:25
I now present General Hankerchief's commentary for Mafia V! :rifle:
Sit back and relax. You'll be here for a while.
Round 0
Mafia: Reenk Roink and Seamus Fermanagh
Detective: Banquo’s Ghost
This would be a good game. When I selected the mafia out of my little hat, I knew that it would be. Seamus was a fairly new addition to the Mafia family, and had so far proven to be a very intelligent, logical player, much like Kommodus. I wondered how he would be in the mafia role. Reenk was an… interesting character. He would give me some laughs.
Our Detective, Banquo’s Ghost, had only played once before, in Mafia III, where he was lynched in the first round. Hopefully for the sake of the game he would do a little bit better this time around.
The “realism system” I mentioned had to do with PM timing. In two previous games (Mafia III and Cosa Nuova) the hosts had given the Detective time to post what he knew after they found out that he would die. Hopefully, this system would combat it. The idea was that if such a scenario happened, whoever sent me the first PM would have the edge. (so say, Banquo had revealed and Seamus decided to kill him off. If Banquo PM’d me first, he would get the result before I posted the kills and would have time to say what he knew in the thread. If Seamus sent the first PM, then Banquo would get no result.)
All three players understood the system and PM’d me their selections.
I almost forgot to put Sasaki in the original status list; he PM’d me informing me of my mistake. I quietly added his name to the list. This would be the first of several minor errors I would make during the course of the game.
Round 1
Reenk kills UltraWar
Seamus kills Sir Moody
Banquo investigates God’s Grace
Throughout the course of the game, the PMs were always sent in the same order: Reenk – Seamus – Banquo. Banquo thought that he was getting them in early, but I didn’t say anything.
Reenk for the most part wrote the kills as they appear in the thread. I made some minor tweaks here and there. The first kill was the only one I really played around with. I had a lot more freedom in writing Seamus’ kills. This is a good example of his usual PM to me:
Understand timing of system.
Please kill Sir Moody.
Killing should be a drive-by shooting with Tommy gun where he just happens to be the one randomly hacked down from a small group. Fits my selection of him.
The Bible passages didn’t come on until later.
The Wanax thing confused me – I figured out that it was Reenk just being Reenk. Even if he wasn’t, then surely the villagers would provide an origin. Ignoramus PM’d me early on connecting The Wanax to Craterus and posted his suspicions a couple of rounds later. But Banquo provided an origin in the thread. The villagers, especially Sasaki, thought that it was just Banquo being a newbie mafioso and trying to distract the villagers.
However, as voting went on Reenk got in trouble for abstaining (courteously) (again). Hepcat also got some votes. Due to timing, I didn’t want this round to go into a tie as I wanted to allow ample time for people to vote over the Thanksgiving weekend. This may have been a little unfair, but it kept the game moving along. In the rush to break the tie, Hepcat came out with the most votes.
Executed: Hepcat
Round 2
Reenk kills Pannonian
Seamus kills Evil_Maniac From Mars
Banquo investigates Sasaki Kojiro
All three had motives for their targets. Reenk and Seamus thought they were getting rid of the Detective, and Banquo, perhaps not realizing that this was Sasaki’s normal behavior, was suspicious of Sasaki attacking him.
Seamus again didn’t give me much to work with (nothing wrong with that btw) so I added in something I thought EMFM would like – Vogon poetry. It was half-homage to Cosa Nuova, half-filler. This started the speculation of what I put in the kills. For the first few rounds I answered what I could, but after a while I gave up.
This marked my second error in the game. Seamus wanted an “unblinking eye” from EMFM’s corpse. First, I forgot to add it, second of all when I did I cut out the entire eye instead of the eyelid. Seamus informed me of this mistake and I retconned it in a later kill.
This was the long round over Thanksgiving break. Votes were thrown a number of ways, but eventually it came down to Banquo for the Wanax thing, and Divine Wind for making some suspicious posts early on and then disappearing.
(Oh, btw, props to Silver Rusher for strongly advocating the lynch of Banquo. Had to get that in, buddy. :tongue:)
After about 4 days of voting, we were (of course) tied, so I called a re-vote and kept the round going for another day. I was rather surprised that nobody picked up on his change of behavior towards Sasaki, whom he had investigated. Banquo got in trouble early, so I was expecting a reveal to save himself. However, he was silent (the culprit: he went away for the weekend), and the votes fell his way. After Round 2, the Detective was gone.
I posted loads of hints in Banquo’s execution scene that he was the Detective. That thing that Beirut whispered in his ear was “why didn’t you reveal?” Kudos to Crazed Rabbit and later on, Kommodus for catching it.
Executed: Banquo’s Ghost
Round 3
Reenk kills Sasaki Kojiro
Seamus kills theRTWGuru
Reenk’s kill of Sasaki had me laughing out loud for about 10 minutes. It definitely was the funniest kill I ever received (sorry Kommodus). It also had me wondering why Reenk would effectively prove a huge force of nature innocent, but I figured he had his reasons.
I was kind of sorry that the pains of thinking up and writing the realism system had gone to waste, but evidently the mafia didn’t know that. Seamus went after Guru (who had previously done a weak “reveal” and was quickly called out on its flaws) just to be safe. I finally got the unblinking eye thing right.
I’m kind of glad that Seamus told me what the passages meant, as I am no Bible expert myself. The only one I really got was the Destroyer of Hope reference, which was the last one he wrote. This definitely fit the kill.
The Bible reference created a furor in the thread, replacing that of The Wanax. Just about everybody got named, but oddly enough, Seamus did not. However, he did not know that the Eye of Sasaki, now proven innocent, was now fixed on him.
Kagemusha is more likely to be innocent and now I have my eye on Seamus.
oh man Seamus is acting suspicious. Have to figure out how to confirm though.
(there were a lot of other suspects, but they shall remain anonymous :laugh4:)
However, Zalmoxis fell under suspicion for odd voting patterns, and ultimately got the lynch this round.
Executed: Zalmoxis
Round 4
Reenk kills Kommodus
Seamus kills Proletariat
Seamus’ kill intrigued me this round. I know he and Prole know each other outside of the Org, and I wondered if something he put in the kill (the fact that she likes sushi, perhaps? I have no idea) would give himself away. However, nothing ever came out.
Divine Wind PM’d me around this time to say that he wouldn’t be able to play anymore. Complying with his request, I killed him off via seppuku. I didn’t want to have to mod-kill too many people in order to keep the game running, and I knew that the Wrath of God would be rearing its ugly head fairly certain.
By killing Kommodus, Reenk earned his wrath thanks to those amazing systems later on. His thoughts have already been stated on this matter. Personally, I was wondering what the heck was up with him. This was the second round in a row where he had a good player proven innocent. I guess the moral here is “never try to figure out a Wanax.” :tongue:
However, the little red herrings he planted in his kill were the most effective since the infamous AggonyDuck frame-up courtesy of Lemur in Mafia II. The philosophy discourse combined with the schwedentrunk got Sigurd Fafnesbane to post a strong argument against Husar. He tried to defend himself as well as start a counter-bandwagon on Csar but came up one vote short.
My progress report on the mafia so far: 4 rounds and everything was humming. Reenk and Seamus had the Detective out of the picture (and believed they did, too, which is a big help), weren’t attracting that much (public) suspicion, and only voted together once. Things were looking good, but as we have seen time and time again eventually the trap would close in on the mafia in the later rounds. This would occur in the next round.
Executed: Husar
Round 5
Reenk kills AggonyDuck
Seamus kills doc_bean
Two safe kills this round. This would be the last quiet round before everything hit the fan. I was annoyed about the lack of activity of some players, and made it known. If certain select people did not vote this round, they would be gone.
Apparently Reenk was so convinced with the success of his last kill that he decided to put The Wanax away for around. But he reassured me that this would be a one-time deal:
Hey GH, The Wanax will lay low this round, employing yet another brilliant stratagem to further obfuscate the villagers... :wink: Don't worry, he'll be back (contingent on my survival next round). :yes:
However, he was nailed by Kommodus’ newest anti-mafia system. K wasn’t as supremely confident in his method as he was in Mafia IV, however, and this caused a split in votes between Csar and discovery1, who had been making mostly goofy posts in the course of the game.
I didn’t want another re-vote, so just decided to keep the voting open until a tie was broken. So I waited…
…and waited…
…and waited until Craterus changed his vote from Csar to Reenk, hoping that someone else would vote for The Wanax. However, I was there to quickly end the voting. The game had to keep moving.
All in all, a grand total of 6 people died this round. There were the two kills, one execution, Masy’s suicide, and the two Wrath of God victims (God’s Grace and Drisos). Hopefully this would have the same effect as in Mafia III, where the WoG suddenly brought activity to previous levels. I didn’t want to have to kill anybody else though, as the mafia had been “given” over a round thanks to suicides and inactivity.
Executed: discovery1
Round 6
Reenk kills Csar
Seamus kills Sigurd Fafnesbane
Between the kills and execution, Reenk “revealed,” confident that the true Detective was out of commission. My initial reaction was that he botched it. The main reason for this was that he gave his evidence peacemeal, even though they were all very well done. I do have to give him credit for using the realism system explanation in his defense, but I wondered why on earth he deleted that Mafia IV post (and just for the record, it was the screenshots of all of his Detective results from that game).
Seamus avoided previous mafia mistakes by siding against Reenk. He would take great pains to make sure that no connection appeared between the two, but yet this would still come back to hurt him.
As a result of Reenk’s reveal, the mafia scrambled and changed their kills to two “innocents” that he had named. It was kind of funny seeing the normally grammar-conscious Seamus PMing me with the title “CHANGE inn Night #6”. :laugh4:
The two original targets were as follows:
-Seamus to go after Don Corleone the same way his namesake was wounded in The Godfather (movie that is).
General:
I wish to murder Don Corleone.
Murder should recreate the buying oranges/shot in the back scene from the 1972 classic with Marlon Brando – couldn’t resist with that name.
If you need to WoG someone else, have them take Freddo’s role but get run down with a car.
In the bag of oranges is found a note, reading: “Matthew 7:19”
-Reenk was to go after Dutch_guy. He had already written the kill out, so all I had to do was substitute DG’s name in. Normally I would be pretty good at this, but seeing as how this was the third time I did these particular kills (I had already done Sigurd’s death twice, not including the time I accidentally put Don’s original death before realizing my mistake, and did The Wanax kill, complete with adding in a couple of sentences not to mention manually inserting all the underlines and non-italics for The Analyst and the phasgana :wall:) I rushed things a little bit.
About three minutes after the kills were posted, Reenk PM’d me saying he caught a Dutch_guy reference. This was my third error. Cursing myself, I quickly edited it out and thought I was safe, but then Craterus posted his suspicions. I wondered what to say, but eventually decided to just keep quiet.
Despite Sasaki’s best efforts, Reenk was not the overwhelming favorite to get executed. There was a four-way tie with two hours to go, but then Seamus cast the deciding vote on his partner! :dizzy2:
That one threw me for a loop. Reenk wasn’t the sure lynch. Apparently Seamus had decided to cut his losses and go solo.
I put a minor clue in Reenk’s execution, but nobody caught it.
He was about to get up but in the pandemonium a bottle of wine fell from somewhere and knocked Reenk out cold.
Wine – grapes – grapes on a wide-brimmed hat/grape watermark – Wanax. Oh well.
Now that his buddy was gone, I was anxious to see how long Seamus would last. In my previous three mafia games, no Mafioso had ever managed to last more than one round without his partner. Seamus had set himself up as Reenk’s enemy, but ultimately this was his downfall.
Executed: Reenk Roink
Round 7
Seamus kills Kagemusha and Destroyer of Hope
Well, The Wanax lived on even though Reenk had died. This was an extremely weird kill (dressing Kage up as the Trix Rabbit and having him eaten by rabid children). If this was earlier on in the game, I probably wouldn’t have accepted it but at this stage, I didn’t care enough to send an additional PM. This probably had something to do with my inbox nearing critical mass, too.
Sasaki used some elaborate stratagems in this round to bring out the mafioso, which kind of annoyed me since I had no control over what was happening (in case you didn’t know from my Godfather 2 commentary, I’m something of a control freak when it comes to these things :grin:). The first of these things was saying that he had “convincing evidence” that Crazed Rabbit was guilty.
If you remember, he had Seamus pegged from Round 3, and mostly posted Rabbit’s “guilt” to get a reaction out of his suspect. However, Seamus didn’t spring for the quick lynch, which temporarily foiled his plans.
But then Kommodus’ system named Seamus, as did AggonyDuck’s gut, which is possibly even more reliable. Cue in Reenk desperately trying to shift the attention to Rabbit and Xiahou. This almost worked, and left us with a seemingly-endless 3-3 tie between Seamus and Rabbit.
It was a noble effort by Reenk, but sadly it was misplaced. The reason: The main effect of it instead raised HIS standing among his buddy. Reenk got placed in a good light, especially among Sasaki, and now the general opinion was that he was in fact the Detective. Obviously this did not bode well for the person who put the deciding lynch vote on him, AKA Seamus.
This brings me to the biggest lesson learned during Mafia V: If you’re going to use a risky strategy, follow through with it. This has now been the downfall of the mafia in my two biggest games: Mafia III and Mafia V. In Mafia III, Kommodus voted against his buddy, Gertgregoor, but failed to follow up on it and made the kills look like there were two Mafiosi. Here, the goal should have been to portray Reenk as a mafioso and hail Seamus as the hero and the person who lynched a bad guy. Instead, there was still a Wanax kill, Reenk came off looking innocent, and Seamus was doomed. Eventually Craterus cast the deciding vote, thus saving the Frontroom and ending Mafia V. I put in a fairly obvious clue in the execution (the Job reference) but it didn't matter since the game was over.
Executed: Seamus Fermanagh
Game end
Well, I’m sure NOBODY was expecting the game to end when it did. I bet that most (all but two) players were pleasantly surprised when the final scene went up. I hate to see a story unfinished so I wrote a final confrontation with a robo-Wanax getting into a showdown with the remaining villagers. Not to mention an ending stolen from Stephen King’s excellent book in the Dark Tower series, Wolves of the Calla. I highly recommend the book and the series.
A very well-played game to our two mafiosi, Reenk Roink and Seamus Fermanagh. You guys almost had it; one more round. Excellent job at covering the connection between the two of you. I really do think that if you had not gone with that strategy at the end that the game would have been yours.
Also, a mention should go to our Detective, Banquo’s Ghost, for his noble effort. As in the Backroom, he posted with honor and logic at all times. :bow:
Finally, I’d like to give my congratulations to the townspeople. Judging by the last few games, they have become a force to be reckoned with, in my opinion replacing the Detective as the mafia’s biggest threat. You guys are what makes this game so difficult for the mafia, and your interaction is what makes Mafia games great.
So here’s to you, townspeople. You earned this victory. :medievalcheers:
Reenk Roink
12-15-2006, 02:01
Great write up GeneralHankerchief! :2thumbsup:
Let me explain the end of game strategy a bit more.
As said, I knew I had done a fairly convincing job with my reveal, despite the flaws. Only Sasaki was really pushing for my death, and he had no vote. Kommodus actually tried to get the villagers to save me. Essentially, the tandem of Crazed Rabbit and Xiahou were the only threats, but I could have easily negated it with my own vote on someone else, and there was always Seamus in reserve.
The reason I decided to let myself die was mainly because I did not want to fail Kommodus’ test. He had Seamus in sights, and so did Sasaki. By dying, I could gain the trust of these guys, and I did. However, Kommodus and Sasaki pushed for Seamus to go despite me trying to dissuade them as a friend.
I actually did try to be a Wanax again. I sent weird PM’s to Kommodus about him being deluded and showed great hostility to Sasaki for killing me. Well, it didn’t work: Seamus still got taken down and was down three to one, and Sasaki said it was “obvious” I was detective. :wall: I even wrote blatantly obvious posts claiming my Wanaxness, but they flew over the head of people (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=1340621&postcount=752). :wall:
So then I used my detective status to convince the townies of the tandem, and it worked, though not enough.
I don’t know what we could have done differently in that case, since Seamus and I were fingered by that horrid spreadsheet of Kommodus...
Seamus Fermanagh
12-15-2006, 04:59
In retrospect, I should have done two bible quote killings following Reenk's demise.
I had thought that nobody would buy Reenk's reveal, and that I'd be somewhat cleared by acing him. I forgot that the recently lynched detective is more credible than a living one. Ended up boxing me in -- though it may not have mattered as Sasaki really had his sights on me and Kommo's system would still have picked up my off-moves.
Kommodus
12-15-2006, 05:12
The reason I decided to let myself die was mainly because I did not want to fail Kommodus’ test. He had Seamus in sights, and so did Sasaki. By dying, I could gain the trust of these guys, and I did. However, Kommodus and Sasaki pushed for Seamus to go despite me trying to dissuade them as a friend.
You know what's wierd about that? I was partially testing you to see what your reaction would be, but I really did suspect Iggy at that point. You would not have "failed" immediately by giving me a result on Ignoramus.
Later in the game, when I realized Iggy was innocent, I might have suspected you again - but you could've survived one more round without serious repercussions.
So, interestingly enough, my PM "test" to you did yield a positive effect for the town - but not exactly the one I had been planning. :dizzy2:
EDIT: Oh yes, I forgot to add - great read GeneralHankerchief! Closure is always a nice thing to have.
Sasaki Kojiro
12-15-2006, 12:20
Great read GeneralH :2thumbsup:
Craterus
12-15-2006, 21:05
Yeah, nice write-up. I got a few mentions. :grin:
Myrddraal
12-16-2006, 03:06
What a game! Yes I have been lurking :evilgrin:
Zalmoxis
12-16-2006, 10:31
I just want to take the time to point out that it was a waste of time accusing and then killing me, that's all.
Seamus Fermanagh
12-16-2006, 21:26
I just want to take the time to point out that it was a waste of time accusing and then killing me, that's all.
....well, I didn't think it was a waste.~;) :smash: :smash:
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