Won't be long now

[Banquo's Ghost]

It appears that the Georgians and the US security services have managed to head off the sale of enriched uranium by a Russian (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6297713.stm).

Unsurprisingly, the Russian authorities are not cooperating with the further investigation. You can fill in your own blanks as to why.

There's a lot more of this stuff unsecured in Russia than you can dream of in your worst nightmares. Isn't it about time we got tough with Putin about it?

Georgia and US foil uranium plot

A Russian man who tried to sell a small piece of weapons-grade uranium has been arrested in Georgia, officials say.

The man was detained in the Georgian capital Tbilisi last summer in a sting operation involving US agents, the Georgian interior minister said.

Vano Merabishvili said he was giving details now because Russia had failed to co-operate over the case.

The Russian was carrying 100g (3.5oz) of uranium, but had offered more. A US test confirmed it was highly enriched.

Experts at the US Department of Energy examined the sample and concluded it was powerful enough to fuel part of a nuclear weapon.

The man was able to transport it in a plastic bag in his pocket, the Associated Press reported, because uranium has a low level of radioactive emission.

The BBC's Matthew Collin, in Georgia, says the case raises new concerns about militants gaining access to nuclear material, particularly in conflict zones in the former Soviet Union where the rule of law is weak and corruption is widespread.

Important arrest

According to Mr Merabishvili, the Russian said the uranium was just a sample of a much larger amount he had available to sell.

But these claims were never substantiated, US and Georgian officials indicated.

Mr Merabishvili said Russia had not yet responded to an offer by Georgia to hand over information about the case.

Georgian efforts to trace the nuclear material since the arrest and confirm whether the man did have access to larger quantities have foundered from a lack of cooperation from Russia, he said.

"We were ready to provide all the information, but unfortunately no-one arrived from Russia, not even to interview this person," Mr Merabishvili said.

"It is surprising because it is in Russian interests to secure these materials. There are terrorist organizations in Russia who would pay huge amounts of money for this."

Concern

Relations between Russia and Georgia have been tense in recent months, following a row about alleged spying by Russians and Moscow's expulsion of Georgian illegal workers.

A spokeswoman for the International Atomic Energy Agency, Melissa Fleming, said the arrest was of vital importance.

"Given the serious consequences of the detonation of an improvised nuclear explosive device, even small number of incidents involving HEU [highly enriched uranium] or plutonium are of very high concern," she said.

Georgia said it became aware of the smuggling plot while investigating crime in the breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

[macsen rufus]

Okay, I apologize for the pedantry beforehand but:


Experts at the US Department of Energy examined the sample and concluded it was powerful enough to fuel part of a nuclear weapon.

... is an extremely dumb thing to say, given that nuclear weapons depend on a critical mass. So there's no such thing as "part of" a nuclear weapon. Either it's a whole weapon or it's just a lump of fissible material. Anyone else smell scare tactics? (Not that it isn't a scary scenario, it is. But so far I believe the only 'buyers' are western security services, which is probably a good thing.)

[Fragony]

Not scared about nukes, but there is a lot of radioactive waste in southern Russia, the rebels only need to dig and not get cancer, a dirty bomb is a pretty real threat.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Okay, I apologize for the pedantry beforehand but:


Experts at the US Department of Energy examined the sample and concluded it was powerful enough to fuel part of a nuclear weapon.

... is an extremely dumb thing to say, given that nuclear weapons depend on a critical mass. So there's no such thing as "part of" a nuclear weapon. Either it's a whole weapon or it's just a lump of fissible material.

:beam:

Well, if we really want to do the pedantry thing, the fissile material (critical mass or otherwise) is one of several parts that make a nuclear weapon - casing is a part, the detonator is another part and so on. So technically, he's right. :wink:



Anyone else smell scare tactics? (Not that it isn't a scary scenario, it is. But so far I believe the only 'buyers' are western security services, which is probably a good thing.)

I'm as ready as anyone to dismiss stuff as scare tactics, but from what I know of the Russian "security" in the southern sectors, it's highly likely that fissile material is already in the hands of terror groups. Their challenge is getting it from the wastelands of central Asia to a place where they can do real damage and making it into a believable threat.

The bin Laden-type terror groups that can afford this material are always looking for the spectacular - they dream of destroying a western city, and this is not easy even if you have a working bomb - which in itself is a long way from a lump of uranium.

If they were real terrorists, they could have paralysed the west with fear by now through lots of small scale fertiliser bombs against soft targets like transport and random sniper shootings. It's easy to inflitrate a country with a sniper group, much less so with a working nuke.

EDIT: Here's a link to some information (http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/threat/anecdote.asp) about Russian issues in this area.

[KukriKhan]

The bin Laden-type terror groups that can afford this material are always looking for the spectacular - they dream of destroying a western city...

Another hallmark of theirs is simultaneity - 5 planes crashing within minutes of each other, 7 bombs going off around a city, and so on, the better to change latent fear into active panic, and over-reaction by leadership.

Imagine 3 explosions: 1 in Miami, 1 in Seattle & 1 in D.C., the aftermath of which making gieger-counters go nuts. Without actually spreading a lot of harmful radiation, the panic levels ratchet up dramatically, and the immediacy of the D.C. explosion could easily move the Bush/Cheney hand to the 'retaliate' button, before an accurate picture of responsibility can be painted. I think the 'Quaeda-ists count on such a plan.

[Watchman]

It's worked pretty well thus far, anyway. Why fix what isn't broken ?

[Don Corleone]

It's worked pretty well thus far, anyway. Why fix what isn't broken ?

Your argument is to let folks steal fissable material from Russia, because nobody's actually made a bomb with it yet? :dizzy2:

Yes, we should all get together and force Putin to do something about this. But that's not going to happen.

[Husar]

... is an extremely dumb thing to say, given that nuclear weapons depend on a critical mass. So there's no such thing as "part of" a nuclear weapon. Either it's a whole weapon or it's just a lump of fissible material. Anyone else smell scare tactics?
Go here (http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=physics+10) and watch Lecture 07: Nukes, he explains it very well and also says the hardest part about building a WW2 type nuke is to get enriched Uranium...now they sell it in plastic bags...:juggle2:

[English assassin]

Hmm. My reaction to this may possibly be made a little more extreme by the fact that I am sitting in an office half a mile from St Pauls and half a mile from Parliament and so would very likely be on my way to Valhalla if London goes up (note to self: check life insurance for terrorist/nuclear exclusions) but, prospectively postumously, I'm not sure I would wholly object to the US/UK going, well, nuclear if we get hit by AQ. Apres moi le deluge and all that.

Obviously countancing the deaths of millions of people not connected with the attack is wrong, and I will get there soon, but right now I am still working my way back to liberal equilibrium. Give me a moment.

OT, DC, what's with all this Tom business? For god's sake don't change your sig for a while or I'll be hopelessly confused :beam:

[Don Corleone]

OT, DC, what's with all this Tom business? For god's sake don't change your sig for a while or I'll be hopelessly confused :beam:

Sorry chief. There's a huge mafia game going on, based on New York's 5 families. Since there's a role in the game of 'Don Corleone', I didn't want to confuse everyone and changed it to Tom Hagen (the Corleone family consigliere in the movies, played by Robert Duvall). I'll change it back when the game's over.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Isn't it about time we got tough with Putin about it?

'We'? I thought good old Europe had denounced anything more violent than repeated pleadings to stop, occasionally followed by a stern glance.

Crazed Rabbit

[Kralizec]

'We'? I thought good old Europe had denounced anything more violent than repeated pleadings to stop, occasionally followed by a stern glance.

Crazed Rabbit

Fortunately the US is always ready to give Russia a good, violent spanking.

[Vladimir]

Europe is too dependent on Russian energy to give them much grief.

[cegorach]

Ohh please...

Sure Europe needs russian oil and gas, but there are alternative suppliers ( Caspian Sea area's importance is growing) and it doesn't explain the helpless, weakminded and simply pathetic approach some european politicians show when it comes to the relations with Russia e.g. former chancellor of Germany who called Putin 'crystal clear democratic leader' and later got a job for Russian Gasprom...:thumbsdown:

[Vladimir]

Ohh please...

Sure Europe needs russian oil and gas, but there are alternative suppliers ( Caspian Sea area's importance is growing) and it doesn't explain the helpless, weakminded and simply pathetic approach some european politicians show when it comes to the relations with Russia e.g. former chancellor of Germany who called Putin 'crystal clear democratic leader' and later got a job for Russian Gasprom...:thumbsdown:

:laugh4: Old school politics. :2thumbsup: ( :shame: )

[Kanamori]

'We'? I thought good old Europe had denounced anything more violent than repeated pleadings to stop, occasionally followed by a stern glance.

Crazed Rabbit

Yeah, um, we're not really doing anything either.:laugh4:

Yer'up's still trying to make its mind up, it needs peace and quiet to do that.~;)

[Husar]

We should simply invade and take the gas and oil for ourselves, but let's not forget some warm clothes this time.~:rolleyes:

[Watchman]

Your argument is to let folks steal fissable material from Russia, because nobody's actually made a bomb with it yet? :dizzy2:How about next time you read the previous post which was being referred to before rolling your eyes at me, wiseguy ? :smartass2:

[Don Corleone]

How about next time you read the previous post which was being referred to before rolling your eyes at me, wiseguy ? :smartass2:

I honestly misunderstood your post, and I'm not 100% certain I undertand it now. Are you sarcastically agreeing with Kukri that if they do detonate nuclear/dirty bombs, they'll do it in a coordinate effort? My apologies for the affront. :bow:

[Watchman]

*sigh*
Without actually spreading a lot of harmful radiation, the panic levels ratchet up dramatically, and the immediacy of the D.C. explosion could easily move the Bush/Cheney hand to the 'retaliate' button, before an accurate picture of responsibility can be painted. I think the 'Quaeda-ists count on such a plan.This is the bit I was referring to. Since thus far nobody actually has ever used "dirty bombs" or suchlike, referring to them as "having worked fine before" would obviously be quite nonsensical wouldn't it ?

[Husar]

*sigh*This is the bit I was referring to. Since thus far nobody actually has ever used "dirty bombs" or suchlike, referring to them as "having worked fine before" would obviously be quite nonsensical wouldn't it ?
Why make a dirty bomb if Mr. soandso sells you enriched uranium in plastic bags?
It's not like you need a huge transport vehicle to get enough grams for a nice bomb. Then take a pipe, some explosive material and you're almost done with some craftsmanship. If you're unsure, search google and read up on it.:sweatdrop:

[Watchman]

:wall:
Oh ferchrissakes. If you didn't get the point of the quip, just leave it alone.

[BigTex]

Why make a dirty bomb if Mr. soandso sells you enriched uranium in plastic bags?
It's not like you need a huge transport vehicle to get enough grams for a nice bomb. Then take a pipe, some explosive material and you're almost done with some craftsmanship. If you're unsure, search google and read up on it.:sweatdrop:

A dirty bomb indeed. Though you do not buy these in grams. Uranium is generally measured in kilograms, a kilo is barely the size of a baseball. Gotta remember it's nearly 3 times the density of lead.

Considering a country, which will remain nameless, was able to sneak pullonium into the UK and kill multiple people with it without being caught. A dirty bomb will not be hard to get or fashion in a metropolis like London. Considering the ease at which russian nuclear material is attained this is a very real threat and hardly scare tactics. Definately something that needs to be addressed.

[English assassin]

*sigh*
Quote:
Originally Posted by KukriKhan
Without actually spreading a lot of harmful radiation, the panic levels ratchet up dramatically, and the immediacy of the D.C. explosion could easily move the Bush/Cheney hand to the 'retaliate' button, before an accurate picture of responsibility can be painted. I think the 'Quaeda-ists count on such a plan.

This is the bit I was referring to. Since thus far nobody actually has ever used "dirty bombs" or suchlike, referring to them as "having worked fine before" would obviously be quite nonsensical wouldn't it ?

But, but, I think THIS is the key part of what Kukri was saying


easily move the Bush/Cheney hand to the 'retaliate' button, before an accurate picture of responsibility can be painted.

The nature of the outrage used to get the Bush thumb out of the mouth and onto the red button is irrelevant.

[sacrasm on] But obviously there is NO chance of this happening, since, for example, Bush and Cheney did NOT invade a certain state in the middle east despite no evidence at all of it having anything to do with the War on Terror (tm) and indeed a fair bit of evidence that it had no such connection. [sarcasm off]

[Xiahou]

Isn't it about time we got tough with Putin about it?
What would that entail? A stern talking to? The threat of even more talks if he doesn't surrender after the first rounds of talks?

[Husar]

:wall:
Oh ferchrissakes. If you didn't get the point of the quip, just leave it alone.
Oh, I got your point, I just wanted any quote aboce my post before referring to a dirty bomb for a reason I forgot this night.~;)


A dirty bomb indeed. Though you do not buy these in grams. Uranium is generally measured in kilograms, a kilo is barely the size of a baseball. Gotta remember it's nearly 3 times the density of lead.
Yes, I wasn't thinking about how many grams one needs for a bomb simply because the guy offered more and as long as his sources won't stop delivering I guess he would sell more and more grams which will eventually add up to kilograms and maybe even tons.:juggle2:


Considering a country, which will remain nameless, was able to sneak pullonium into the UK and kill multiple people with it without being caught. A dirty bomb will not be hard to get or fashion in a metropolis like London. Considering the ease at which russian nuclear material is attained this is a very real threat and hardly scare tactics. Definately something that needs to be addressed.
That's what I mean. A not-so-dirty bomb shouldn't be that hard to sneak in either.
Now if I understand correctly, a dirty bomb is one that explodes with normal explosives and scatters the area with radioactive material, I just wonder why they would do that if they could just about as easily build a real nuke causing a lot more destruction and fear?

[Banquo's Ghost]

What would that entail? A stern talking to? The threat of even more talks if he doesn't surrender after the first rounds of talks?

Sorry. I thought that the possibility of al-Quaeda gaining access to fissile material might be an important consideration for the War on Terror. I'm such a fool. It's all Iran's fault.

I know that, I'm trying to believe it, honestly, I want to see five fingers.

:shrug: Like I care. Co. Kerry is hardly likely to be on Osama's "must convert into glassy dust" list.

[Watchman]

Oh, I got your point, I just wanted any quote aboce my post before referring to a dirty bomb for a reason I forgot this night.~;)I take it the reason looked very good and lucid back in the pub last night, but mysteriously disappeared come the morning ? :medievalcheers:

[Husar]

I take it the reason looked very good and lucid back in the pub last night, but mysteriously disappeared come the morning ? :medievalcheers:
:laugh4:
No money for the pub, it may have been a better idea to post the one who you quoted.
Apart from that, should i ever happen to be in Helsinki, you could invite me to a pub.~:cheers: ~;)

[BigTex]

That's what I mean. A not-so-dirty bomb shouldn't be that hard to sneak in either.
Now if I understand correctly, a dirty bomb is one that explodes with normal explosives and scatters the area with radioactive material, I just wonder why they would do that if they could just about as easily build a real nuke causing a lot more destruction and fear?

A real nuke would take much more time and effort. Not to mention the quality of uranium needed. It would also require massive amounts of explosives to detonate.

A dirty bomb on the other hand just requires sprinkling the material amongst the explosives. It also doesnt require quality material, any radioactive material could be used, even speant fuel from a power plant. This is a very real threat. With the decay of the russian control over their nuclear stockpiles it's going to become more and more easier for these things to be attained by terrorists. Dirty bomb's are simpler and can cause far more damage then just a nuke. The half life on some of that material is more then a human lifespan.

This is very chilling thing indeed. Quite glad the Georgian officials managed to catch them.

[Watchman]

...say, don't those smoke detector alarm thingies have a radioactive component ? I know the one I dragged to recycling had ample warnings on the subject. Wonder where they store used ones ? I've heard a legend some clever guy in the US managed to buy a bunch of those for pennies and make a very small but primitive reactor out of the stuff (and exposed himself to some interesting amounts of rads on the side)...

[Vladimir]

That would be the ultimate irony as the radioactive element used is Americinum (however it's spelled).

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Watchman, it was a child genius, it was on the news a couple of years ago. I believe he did recieve a fairly fatal dosing. Not sure if it was worth first prize in the science fair. (He was American.)

My take: So far we have seen nothing on the order of 9/11. I think that Bin Laden and co weren't banking on the timid US going nutzo and destroying their power base.

Theory: Threat of a nuclear bomb is worth more to these people than setting one off.

[Watchman]

Theory: Threat of a nuclear bomb is worth more to these people than setting one off.By far cheaper, and if the precedent is to judge by will be quite enough to make Washington do something stupid.

[IrishArmenian]

Probably was selling it to that unlucky Armenian who threw a dud grenade at Bush in Tbilsi. Hopefully, this stuff isn't defective!

[ezrider]

If they were real terrorists, they could have paralysed the west with fear by now through lots of small scale fertiliser bombs against soft targets like transport and random sniper shootings. It's easy to inflitrate a country with a sniper group, much less so with a working nuke.


That sounds very familiar

[BDC]

By far cheaper, and if the precedent is to judge by will be quite enough to make Washington do something stupid.
The French president said something along the lines that they'd nuke anyone who did something on the scale of the September 11th attacks to them.

[Vladimir]

The French president said something along the lines that they'd nuke anyone who did something on the scale of the September 11th attacks to them.

Well that's the only real recourse they have.