Civil wars: any way to know the odds

[Caerfanan]

Ok, after the "what exhaustion brings on our units", I'm now, after having seen my pict foe go into civil war 3 times in ten years, wondering about:

- any way of knowing how far from a civil war your faction is
- any way of knowing who will rally behind the rebels (which are not a "faction", btw, which is weird), or the chances

For instance, is a civil war having a % to happen every turn, this % changing according to what happens to you (defeat in battle? low loyalty in your provinces?), or is every single general making a test every turn?

Well, if someone knows about the civil war / reappearances mechanics...

I noticed as well that when a faction was struck by civil war, it was VERY likely to have reappearances as well. Is it something like "some of the rebels will actually be a dead faction as we have a free slot for the AI" or is it something different?

[seireikhaan]

Generally, the biggest factors for how far away you are from civil war are how loyal your generals are(especially royalty and former royalty) and your king's influence. Generally speaking though, if your king's influence is over five, you probably are safe, since his influence will help raise the general's loyalty, unless you're HRE. They seem to be more prone to civil war than other factions. As for the last problem, well there's just not much you can do to prevent a reoccurrence unless you trapped all of your enemies to a single lonely province instead of finishing them off. Remember, a reoccurrence can only happen if you've completely knocked someone out. Also, a factions must have held a province at some point in order to reappear there. The English can't reappear in Anatolia when they never got even close to it.

[caravel]

- any way of knowing how far from a civil war your faction is
Your disloyal generals are the key to civil war. There will be a ring leader among these, often one of your former heirs (an uncle) that fell out of the line of succession and has low loyalty, or a good general with good stats and low loyalty (4 or below). I have in the past moved this ringleader into the same province as my faction leader (which prevents him rebelling), but I have often been too late as the civil war occurred exactly that turn.

- any way of knowing who will rally behind the rebels (which are not a "faction", btw, which is weird), or the chances
There are no 'rebels' as such until you choose sides. The opposition will generally be made up of the lower loyalty generals (including heirs) and their armies, with the loyalists being made up of those with the greater loyalty and the current faction leader. When you back either the rebels or the loyalists, one side then joins the rebel faction and is out of your control. The AI, though will remember which faction they belonged to. If you back the loyalists you retain your current faction leader, backing the rebels makes the rebel ringleader the faction leader.

For instance, is a civil war having a % to happen every turn, this % changing according to what happens to you (defeat in battle? low loyalty in your provinces?), or is every single general making a test every turn?

Well, if someone knows about the civil war / reappearances mechanics...
As I've said above it's based on the loyalty of generals which is affected by your faction leader's influence. It is not related to the loyalty of the provinces at all.

I noticed as well that when a faction was struck by civil war, it was VERY likely to have reappearances as well. Is it something like "some of the rebels will actually be a dead faction as we have a free slot for the AI" or is it something different?
I think the reason behind this is that the AI remembers which factions those rebels belonged to, and their unborn heirs also count as heirs to the faction. When they come of age in the rebel provinces (which always have 100% loyalty which is less than the 120% loyalty required to stop faction's coming back) the faction reappears. Also if the re-emerge in one province, a loyalist revolt in any province will most likely cause the other rebel former provinces to rejoin their faction.

[Caerfanan]

Thank you very much for these answers, Cambyses II and greaterkhan

:2thumbsup:

Regarding low loyalty generals, having them in the same province as the king is enough? I usually put them in the king's stack at the beginning of the game, and would gladly stop doing this time consuming stuff.

Well until I have so many provinces that I tend to forget the names of my generals!

The annoying fact is that sometimes you loose ONE battle, and "poof!" civil war, reappearances, etc, etc....

Well not that annoying when it happens to your huge enemy though... :laugh4:

[Kavhan Isbul]

Now just to expand the topic, what determines whether there is a loyalist rebellion in a certain province - what is the percentage loyalty needs to drop down to in order for "the previous governor" to appear with a stack of nice units? Also, would all rebels in neighboring provinces join automatically, as long as these provinces have belonged to the faction which is starting the rebellion? I have seen stacks of rebels which never belonged to a faction join that faction as a result of a loyalist rebellion in a neighboring province, and this is why I ask.