Alternate History: Spain Joins the Axis

[TinCow]

Let's assume that Franco and Hitler somehow reached an agreement at Hendaye on October 23, 1940, and Spain entered the war on the Axis side. What impact would this have had on the course of the war?

My initial thoughts are that it would have greatly lengthened the war, though the end result would still have been an Axis defeat. If agreement had been reached, German forces would likely have attacked and occupied Gibraltar by the end of 1940 or early 1941. This alone would have been a huge blow for the Allies. Without Gibraltar, there would have been no reasonable way for Britain to resupply the forces in North Africa. Without reinforcements and supplies, the North African army would have been defeated and Egypt occupied by Germany and Italy in 1941.

This throws open a huge range of implications for the rest of the war. With North Africa secured, the extra resources and divisions that were diverted there throughout the course of the war would have gone East. Though this would have been just a trickle in comparison to the flood that already existed, every little bit would have helped. In addition, we might well have seen Rommel operating against the Soviets. I don't know know whether this would have made any difference, but it is possible.

Another consequence of the loss of Egypt would have been to open up the possibility of a German push on the Soviets from the Middle East. Could the Caucasus have been secured if they had been attacked from the south as well as the north in 1942? If they had, would it have made any difference?

Spain itself would likely have attempted a push on Portugal. First, could Spain have achieved victory there? Britain may well have diverted the forces that were unable to reach North Africa to Portugal, and Spain was still devastated from the Civil War. The Spanish Army would likely have been even less effective than the Italian Army. Still, Britain did not have much left to contribute. It is possible that Monty could have made his name there like a second Wellington, but it is equally possible that they could have been pushed out quickly or even refused to commit in the first place. A Portuguese Resistatance movement would likely have sprung up and bled Spainish forces severely.

When the US finally entered, would Torch still have gone into North Africa, if there were no British forces to meet up with? Could Torch have instead targetted Portugal? Would the 'soft underbelly' have been Spain instead of Italy?

Other factors to consider: U-boats based in the Canaries and the Azores? Does Britain lose Burma to Japan due to the loss of Suez? Is India seriously threatened by Japan?

What does this all mean? Certainly the Allies would be slowed in their push into Western Europe. If D-Day is June 6, 1945, can the Soviets keep to their real-world timeline? If not, how long are the Soviets delayed by the changes to the German plan? If so, does all of Germany, Austria, Italy, Greece and Scandanavia fall under the Iron Curtain? Do the Soviets capture ALL of the German physicists and rocket scientists?

[scotchedpommes]

Spain itself would likely have attempted a push on Portugal. First, could Spain have achieved victory there? Britain may well have diverted the forces that were unable to reach North Africa to Portugal, and Spain was still devastated from the Civil War. The Spanish Army would likely have been even less effective than the Italian Army. Still, Britain did not have much left to contribute. It is possible that Monty could have made his name there like a second Wellington, but it is equally possible that they could have been pushed out quickly or even refused to commit in the first place. A Portuguese Resistatance movement would likely have sprung up and bled Spainish forces severely.


The Civil War is the key factor in all of this, as I view it. Spain simply was not capable carrying out such actions, and would not have been able to fully support any military campaign. The most they could offer in reality was the Blue Division, and that was relatively limited in its strength, from what I remember. As for the influence of their presence in the Axis; yes, I think it may have brought some of those wider strategic benefits, but Nationalist Spain was too preoccupied with reconstruction from war to become fully involved in another.

[AggonyDuck]

My initial thoughts are that it would have greatly lengthened the war, though the end result would still have been an Axis defeat. If agreement had been reached, German forces would likely have attacked and occupied Gibraltar by the end of 1940 or early 1941. This alone would have been a huge blow for the Allies. Without Gibraltar, there would have been no reasonable way for Britain to resupply the forces in North Africa. Without reinforcements and supplies, the North African army would have been defeated and Egypt occupied by Germany and Italy in 1941.


There is a certain problem with your thesis and that is that the majority of the British supply convoys to North Africa went around the Cape of Good Hope, not through Gibraltar. Only two types of convoys passed through Gibraltar; the convoys to Malta and the convoys to Alexandria with a high priority. Both types needed strong escorts to survive the journey. German airpower and Italian naval forces were a definitive factor around Sicily and cut the Mediterranean in two halves.

The seizing of Gibraltar would have several effects though, it would limit the Royal Navy to the Eastern Mediterranean and rob the Royal Navy of a valuable port for the Battle of the Atlantic. Additionally it would provide the Germans with an excellent base for operations against the British convoys at the coast of Portugal and Africa. This might have given the Germans an advantage big enough to starve the British to surrender and also wreck the British supply lines to North Africa and India.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

1. Taking Gibraltar, even with full support from Spain, would have been a difficult proposition.

The British were aware of its importance to the control of the Med -- if for no other reason than limiting the U-boat presence. It is reasonable to assume that significant resources would have been brought to bear -- even with the difficulties created by the defeat in France.

Very few of Germany's favorite "force multipliers" -- rapid armor shock effect, airborne surprise, strategic surprise -- would have been available. Air superiority would have been attainable, but difficult and costly to an already depleted Luftwaffe during the time-frame you mention.

Even with air supremacy, the physical conditions of Gibraltar would've made it a tough nut to crack.


2. Any serious effort to take Gibraltar would require a commitment of air power and artillery sufficient to delay Barbarossa -- possibly for a full year -- even if successful.

3. Operations on the Peninsula, especially with fairly strong support from the Portugese, would have been logistically easier for the UK than was the campaign in North Africa. Germany may well have become bogged down there, and it is not as though the Italians were positioned/capable of taking down the British Egypt garrison -- even with the reduced aid a campaign in Spain would have meant.

[Julian the apostate]

Another question is how that would have affected American policy. The U.S. tried to mantain a balance until attacked but nonetheless had little intrest in having a dominionative Europe. I have to think they would have atleast begun a far more intense preperation if the war had started like this

[Lorenzo_H]

Spain joins the Axis and Britain would certainly have lost the Battle of Britain. The extra air power, another angle of attack (think a second armada) and it would be too much.

[TinCow]

Seamus' remarks about Gibraltar are very interesting. I know that the Germans drew up basic plans for attacking Gibraltar, but I've never seen them. What kind of forces were available to defend Gibraltar and what would likely have been thrown at it?

[Kagemusha]

Here is a link to Operation Felix,like the Germans called their plan on assaulting Gibraltar::bow:

http://www.sonic.net/~bstone/history/felix.shtml

[TinCow]

Interesting, thank you. It looks to me like the Gibraltar attack would likely have been a reverse Cassino. With sufficient determination, Germany could have succeeded, but I suppose the crucial factor would have been preventing reinforcements by sea and naval support. So the question would be whether the Luftwaffe units assigned to the attack would have been sufficient to drive off the Royal Navy.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Interesting, thank you. It looks to me like the Gibraltar attack would likely have been a reverse Cassino. With sufficient determination, Germany could have succeeded, but I suppose the crucial factor would have been preventing reinforcements by sea and naval support. So the question would be whether the Luftwaffe units assigned to the attack would have been sufficient to drive off the Royal Navy.

Possibly. Unlike the Battle of Britain, basing ability for British aircraft would have been comparatively limited whereas German basing in Spain would've been much more numerous and close in than with the cross-channel air-strikes. This suggests German air superiority following a series of air combats.

The component that is the biggest question mark is the Luftwaffe's ability to interdict shipping. A few units in the Luftwaffe performed expertly in this task, but most did not. The Stuka's successes in the channel, for example, were limited. Dive bombing relatively fixed positions on the ground is far less difficult than hitting a moving vessel. German submarine forces would have exacted a toll, but again, true interdiction is less likely.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Spain joins the Axis and Britain would certainly have lost the Battle of Britain. The extra air power, another angle of attack (think a second armada) and it would be too much.

I disagree.

1st, Spain's addition to the air war would have been limited at best. They possessed less than 250 aircraft, and only 50 modern fighters (Bf 109 etc.) and fewer modern bombers (the HE-111 was only just being license-built there). Committting the entirety of the Italian Air Force to the Battle of Britain may have made a difference, the air forces of Spain would not.

2nd, Flying from Spain as an angle of attack would neither have increased the width of England's defense zone in that sector (which was already at Land's End) nor allowed for fighter support given the short-legged choices in the Axis arsenal. So, if you had asked fighter command if a few more raids akin to those launched early in the BofB from Norway would have added much in the way of threat they'd have told you "no." The RAF's fighter pilots, however, would have enjoyed the easier kills.

3rd, England didn't really need to win the BofB to succeed. Germany could only have knocked Britain out of the war by landing in England with a force of a dozen plus divisions -- say 1 panzerkorps and 2 infanteriekorps -- and supporting same for a period of 3 months or more. The shipping link to land and support these troops would have become the primary target of near-suicidal Royal Navy attacks by EVERYTHING in the Royal Navy -- including the Pacific and Indian fleets if the invasion persisted long enough for the transit. Nothing short of COMPLETE air supremacy -- not mere superiority -- by the Axis would have been sufficient to counter this maximum effort by the RN and even with air supremacy the losses to Germany's sea-link could well have been enough to stop Sea Lion and its support follow-on anyway. The RAF didn't need to win the BofB, they just had to avoid getting wiped off the board entirely.

In fact, some have suggested that the smarter play -- strategically -- would have been NOT to contest the air over Kent or Sussex, but to defend only the London Metro area and some key industrial sites, focusing on combat with the Luftwaffe only at or beyond the max range for the 109s so as to generate a better casualty correlation in the air battle. A bit tough on morale to tell all the fighter lads not to defend their citizens though.

[Tran]

I like topic about alternate history. About Spain joining the axis, 'unofficially' Spain has given help to Germany for its Atlantic operation, the Spain allowed German's Navy ships to be stationed and repaired at Spanish naval bases.

Continuing TinCow's post about the meeting between Franco and Hitler. Franco demanded these to join the Axis:

* 400,000-700,000 tons of grain
* All the fuel required for the Spanish Army
* All lacking equipment for the Spanish Army
* Artillery, aircraft, and special troops for the conquest of Gibraltar (Operation Felix as Kagemusha has posted)
* Germany hand over the territories of Morocco and Oran, and to "help Spain get a border revision in the west of Río de Oro."

I'm not sure whether Nazi is able to fulfill this or whether this is just Franco's trick for not joining the Axis (the fact that Franco's request was seemingly very unrealistic to Hitler). Later though Hitler said he would rather have three of his teeth extracted than meet with Franco again. However there can be interestingly two 'possible alternate histories' here:

1. Franco got what he demanded and Spain join the Axis (although I believe this is still very unrealistic, if not impossible for Nazi to fulfill) with its new 'enhanced' armed forces capability supported by Germany.
2. Franco and Hitler reached a 'realistic agreement' where Hitler didn't have to fulfill Franco's rather unrealistic requests. Spain join the Axis but with its original forces.

It's very likely that Operation Felix will succeed with first choice where combined German-newly enhanced Spanish forces attack Gibraltar, and too with second choice with original Spanish forces but then the later question is how much differences can Spain contribute to the Axis? I'm not sure, but my guess is not much.


Additional notes: In a longer term who knows what might happened if Spain (most probably had) captured Gibraltar? Maybe Gibraltar will return Spain's possession forever? Legend has it (I read in Encyclopedia) that Britain will never surrender Gibraltar until all the native monkeys in that land gone. Maybe the monkeys will all be slaughtered to make sure the legend is true? ~;)

[English assassin]

Why would Spain have joined the Axis? Franco's regime was authoritarian but really had little in common with the fascists and nothing with the nazis.

As noted above, Spain's military might at this time was, to a first approximation, nil. Capturing Gilbratar would not have happened. Moving significant German forces to attack a natural fortress well capable of being supplied by sea, with the attacking forces having a hugely extended supply line, does not seems sensible given the fairly limited strategic payback.

Its very hard to see how the addition of a large, and largely empty, bit of land to the axis empire would have been a benefit. It may even have been a disbenefit since Churchill would surely have been unable to resist the chance to re-run the peninsular war and I suspect any German forces in Spain would rapidly have become as unpopular as the napoleonic forces were. (Instantly, in the case of the former republicans). A little bit of support, a few clandestine British units here and there, and hey presto, its civil war round two.

Franco knew what he was doing staying out, and its telling no one really asked him to come in.

[TinCow]

Well, the instant benefit for the Germans would have been to gain naval bases along the Spanish coast and in the Canaries. Spain would also have likely attacked Portugal, which could have brought the Azores and Madeira Islands into German control. Considering the immense strategic importance of the Battle of the Atlantic, and how close it came to being a German victory, having these islands as bases for U-boats as well as torpedo bombers would have been very significant.

Certainly Spain would not have brought much to the table in terms of military support, but neither did Italy. Any war fought in the Peninsula would have used the same Allied resources as the North African campaign did, so it wouldn't have been opening up a completely new front. Rather, it would have been transferring the North African Front to the Iberian peninsula. So in that sense, I don't see much of a difference for Germany.

If anything, simply shifting the area like this could have greatly helped the Axis. Without an Allied invasion of Sicily and Italy, Mussolini would have remained in power and Italian forces would have stayed in the fight much longer. In addition, fighting in Spain would have allowed German reinforcements and supplies to travel by land, thus avoiding the multitude of sinking that occurred in the Med due to Allied naval and air attacks.

[AggonyDuck]

Well, the instant benefit for the Germans would have been to gain naval bases along the Spanish coast and in the Canaries. Spain would also have likely attacked Portugal, which could have brought the Azores and Madeira Islands into German control. Considering the immense strategic importance of the Battle of the Atlantic, and how close it came to being a German victory, having these islands as bases for U-boats as well as torpedo bombers would have been very significant.


Germans would have had certain problems with actually basing anything from those islands. The first step would had been actually acquiring them and sending men to occupy and garrison them. With allied control of the ocean surface, it would be no easy feat to actually do so. The second problem would be actually supplying these islands. The third problem would be that it would be quite hard to actually stop the British from seizing them. I can easily imagine that the British answer to the loss of Gibraltar and a Spanish entry to the war, would be seizing the Canaries to acquire bases to counter German submarines.

[Franconicus]

Let's play "what if"!

- German divisions (2 corps) deploy at Spain. German bombers and divers attack Gibraltar.
- the English withdraw their fleet from Gibraltar; They can hardly afford to keep them under the eye of German Luftwaffe
- the US protests and stops all deliveries to Spain;
- the US occupies the Azores and Las Canarias; there they build bases for planes and ships.
- the Germans start to besiege Gibraltar. Now that the RN is gone and without the RAF, it is only a matter of time until the rock falls. The strait is open for German subs and the Germans also land in Spanish Africa.
- The French government comes under pressure and allows the deployment of German soldiers in Northwest Africa.
- The US declares a safety zone along the coast of Africa where US ships and planes escort mercjant ships and attack subs without warning.
- due to the presence of German troops in northern Africa, the other French colonies, esp. in the Middle East join de Gaule. There are French soldier fighting French soldiers at Africa.
- Germany has problems to supply Spain with food, oil and military equipment.
- Portugal stays neutral, however, there is a threat of an Anglo or Anglo American landing at Portugal. Therefore Germany has to keep a corp to cover Portugal. Additionally, with the American presence at the islands the threat of an American landing at Northwestern Africa is very realistic. The French troops there are not reliable. Germany has to keep several divisions and squadrons there to repel this threat.
- Finally Gibraltar falls. The German casualties are not too high. However, the Germans are forced to have a coprs on the peninsula and several divisions at Northwestern Africa. The food and oil situation in Germany and in Italy and Spain is more severe than before. Germany depends on oil from Russia.
- Stalin is not pleased by the growth of influence of the Germans. He reduces the oil exports due to "technical problems". Having almost two corps in the wets, Hitler cannot respond the way he did.
- The invasion of Greece goes according to plan. The operations at Libya are going better, because more suply is coming through.
- After the occupation of the Balkans Stalin decides to stop the German progress. His armies deploy near the border of Romania and "former" Poland. He gets support from the US.
- The US is getting faster into the war. The American ships and planes control big areas of the Atlantic, now. It is only a question of time when there is a combat between US and German forces.
- Japan is pleased. The attention of the US and Russia is attracted by Germany. Japan finds an agreement with Stalin. Stalin stops the suport for China and the Japanese are able to break the Chinese resistance.
- Hitler realizes, that he is in a desperate situation and that time is not on his side. He declares war against the US and invades the USSR. With two corps bound in the Southwest he needs every division for the USSR. Therefore, the operations in Africa are stopped. There is only a small garrison at Tripolis to defend the Italian colony.

[Kagemusha]

Let's play "what if"!

- German divisions (2 corps) deploy at Spain. German bombers and divers attack Gibraltar.
- the English withdraw their fleet from Gibraltar; They can hardly afford to keep them under the eye of German Luftwaffe
- the US protests and stops all deliveries to Spain;
- the US occupies the Azores and Las Canarias; there they build bases for planes and ships.
- the Germans start to besiege Gibraltar. Now that the RN is gone and without the RAF, it is only a matter of time until the rock falls. The strait is open for German subs and the Germans also land in Spanish Africa.
- The French government comes under pressure and allows the deployment of German soldiers in Northwest Africa.
- The US declares a safety zone along the coast of Africa where US ships and planes escort mercjant ships and attack subs without warning.
- due to the presence of German troops in northern Africa, the other French colonies, esp. in the Middle East join de Gaule. There are French soldier fighting French soldiers at Africa.
- Germany has problems to supply Spain with food, oil and military equipment.
- Portugal stays neutral, however, there is a threat of an Anglo or Anglo American landing at Portugal. Therefore Germany has to keep a corp to cover Portugal. Additionally, with the American presence at the islands the threat of an American landing at Northwestern Africa is very realistic. The French troops there are not reliable. Germany has to keep several divisions and squadrons there to repel this threat.
- Finally Gibraltar falls. The German casualties are not too high. However, the Germans are forced to have a coprs on the peninsula and several divisions at Northwestern Africa. The food and oil situation in Germany and in Italy and Spain is more severe than before. Germany depends on oil from Russia.
- Stalin is not pleased by the growth of influence of the Germans. He reduces the oil exports due to "technical problems". Having almost two corps in the wets, Hitler cannot respond the way he did.
- The invasion of Greece goes according to plan. The operations at Libya are going better, because more suply is coming through.
- After the occupation of the Balkans Stalin decides to stop the German progress. His armies deploy near the border of Romania and "former" Poland. He gets support from the US.
- The US is getting faster into the war. The American ships and planes control big areas of the Atlantic, now. It is only a question of time when there is a combat between US and German forces.
- Japan is pleased. The attention of the US and Russia is attracted by Germany. Japan finds an agreement with Stalin. Stalin stops the suport for China and the Japanese are able to break the Chinese resistance.
- Hitler realizes, that he is in a desperate situation and that time is not on his side. He declares war against the US and invades the USSR. With two corps bound in the Southwest he needs every division for the USSR. Therefore, the operations in Africa are stopped. There is only a small garrison at Tripolis to defend the Italian colony.


Franc lets make a second what if:

- German divisions (2 corps) deploy at Spain. German bombers and divers attack Gibraltar.
- the English withdraw their fleet from Gibraltar; They can hardly afford to keep them under the eye of German Luftwaffe
- the US protests and stops all deliveries to Spain;
- GB occupies the Azores and Las Canarias; there they build bases for planes and ships.
-Spain declares War on Britain.
- the Germans start to besiege Gibraltar. Now that the RN is gone and without the RAF, it is only a matter of time until the rock falls. The strait is open for German subs and the Germans also land in Spanish Africa.
- The French government comes under pressure and allows the deployment of German soldiers in Northwest Africa.
- The US declares a safety zone along the coast of Africa where US ships and planes escort mercjant ships and attack subs without warning.
- due to the presence of German troops in northern Africa, the other French colonies, esp. in the Middle East pledge loyalty to Vichy´s France,since there really arent anybody to protect them from Germans.
-Since Germany concentrates in West,The Trippentrob pact holds as Soviet Union only wiews that if the Western Countries fight among each other,it only strengthens Soviet Union.
- Germany supplyes Spain with food, oil and military equipment.
- Portugal stays Neutral, becouse of the threat of German occupation.
- Finally Gibraltar falls. The German casualties are not too high. However, the Germans are forced to have a coprs on the peninsula,while it can concentrate now most of its forces in North Africa and transport them safely in the area of Operations,since the British fleet cant pass Gibraltar.
- The invasion of Greece goes according to plan. The operations at Libya lead to allied catastrophy,becouse of the additional German forces.
-In few Months Egypt falls and Germany has open route to Middle Eastern Oil.
- Germany Conquers the Middle Eastern Oilfields.
-Turkey decides to join Axis,becouse it can only choose between Axis and Soviet Union.
-Who knows what could happen next.~;)

[SwordsMaster]

-In few Months Egypt falls and Germany has open route to Middle Eastern Oil.
- Germany Conquers the Middle Eastern Oilfields.
-Turkey decides to join Axis,becouse it can only choose between Axis and Soviet Union.


This is unlikely, Kage, while USSR wanted the west to fight among each other, it didn't want too strong Germany, and while the USSR was the main supplier of oil, it could control the german war effort, if they had allowed Germany to get to the oilfields, that dependance would be gone.

In this scenario, the efforts of the SU would go towards convincing Turkey not to lend its support to germany, as this would put german tanks too close to the russian oil provinces.

[Franconicus]

I agree with SM. Stalin would not have waited until German forces reached the Caucasus. He had several options:

He could have invaded Iraq and Turkey as the Germans advance through Egypt. However, this would have let him to a war against the USA.

The alternative is, that he occupies Iraq in agreement with the Brits and then threatens the Romanian oil fields. They were in reach, he could have bombed them or even occupied them.

[SwordsMaster]

... Which the invasion of Bessarabia was an attempt to do.

[Kagemusha]

This is unlikely, Kage, while USSR wanted the west to fight among each other, it didn't want too strong Germany, and while the USSR was the main supplier of oil, it could control the german war effort, if they had allowed Germany to get to the oilfields, that dependance would be gone.

In this scenario, the efforts of the SU would go towards convincing Turkey not to lend its support to germany, as this would put german tanks too close to the russian oil provinces.

Well in that stage an affairs,after Germany would have taken Egypt. What SU could have really done? Attack Germans in East Europe? I think that would have turned even more disastrous for them then the start of Barbarossa. Also i have no doubt about which Turkey would have chosen between Germany or SU.We have to remember that Turkey and SU were not in friendly terms at that point. When we look at the supply situation in 1941.We shouldnt over estimate the lack of supplies in Germany. Without the Barbarossa campaign,Germany would have had lots of gasoline for its armoured forces. The lack of supplies started to really effect Germany in reality untill 1943. Succesfull campaign in Egypt wouldnt have drained her resources,while there would have been additional troops involved. Still the bulk of German forces were at Eastern Europe.If at that point Soviet Union had attacked its formations would have been annihilated and after that it would have been lot easier for Germans to attack now also from Middle East.

[Strike For The South]

It doesnt matter the allies win becuase of America

[Pannonian]

Here's a usenet discussion (http://groups.google.co.uk/group/soc.history.what-if/browse_frm/thread/21a90ab76f049df8/2b79f4da6d32697b?lnk=st&q=&rnum=9&hl=en#2b79f4da6d32697b) of the matter.

[Icefrisco]

the addition of franco would have been useless to the axis. his army was tired and weary. he didnt have the support of his population even after winning a civil war. so how could he enter a war. with only one defeat the entire country would have rose up in revolt.

[TinCow]

It doesnt matter the allies win becuase of America

This ignores the fact that the end-state of the war directly impacted the course of the Cold War. If the Soviet Union ended up in control of all of Germany, Austria, Greece, Italy, Denmark, and Scandanavia, the world would be a very different place today. Not all Allied victories are the same.

[Vladimir]

He misspoke. He meant Texas :cowboy: .

[Marquis of Roland]

Spain joins Axis.

1. Gibraltar - Axis forces still will not be able to challenge RN forces on the seas, but will be able to drive them away from the coasts with airpower. If the British take Azores and Canaries, they might be able to support with their own airpower (since the carrier planes of the British at the time could not challenge land-based fighters?), but will Gibraltar fall before the Azores or Canaries are taken? The Axis will obviously have secretly moved their forces to Gibraltar to try to take by surprise (but the Allies will know this through ultra? or is it too early?). The British will not be able to heavily reinforce Gibraltar in any case, whether if they didn't know about the impending alliance between Spain and Axis, or that they didn't want to give away the fact they can break the axis codes. Regardless if Gibraltar falls to Axis...

2. North Africa/Russia - ...North Africa will undoubtedly fall to Axis if the British forces in Africa did not receive these "emergency" supplies via the strait of Gibraltar. Even if the RN sends a heavy escort, it is unlikely they can make it through the strait once under Axis control. Rommel would have been able to drive across the Suez and into the middle east oil fields, denying this resource to allies. Barbarossa will have started and now Germany has the option of attacking into Russia from both west and south, the southern route leading straight into the caucasus oil fields. Taking away a significant part of the soviet fuel supply would have affected Soviets severely in their ability to bring on armor-equipped divisions from the east. Stalingrad would have happened sooner, but without the time to assemble adequate reinforcements, the Soviet Union might have lost that one as well. This would put the Soviets on a permanent defensive stance in which they will not have the vehicles to conduct effective combat on the steppes, esp. if Rommel commanded a sizeable southern contingent.

3. China/Burma/India (CBI) - The loss of Egypt and the middle east to Axis means u-boat capability in the Indian ocean. Supplies will still get through to CBI, but at a slower pace, with more resources being needed to transport less supplies. Even so, I find it unlikely the Japanese would have been able to take all of India, and if they did, it'd be such a drain on manpower as to hurt their efforts in China. If India falls, the last remaining supply line into China would have closed as well; the Chinese were capable of manufacturing their own small arms, but very limited in producing heavier equipment and vehicles, and would have suffered accordingly in these areas. Despite this, it is unrealistic for the Japanese army to take the whole of China for the lack of the supply line over the himalayas.

4. D-Day - Since Germans will be in a better position in Russia, D-Day may have been postphoned, or perhaps instead an invasion through the Iberian would have replaced it. How many divisions will the Russians be able to hold on the Eastern Front, and how long? Certainly not 80%. Veteran German formations would have been available in western Europe in significant quantities. Italy, being unreachable to the allies, will be free to produce armaments and reinforcements to the entire western European theatre.