View Full Version : The far future
What do you think the far future will be like if you had to speculate based on information you have now?
One thing is for sure. One thing is a constant: conflict (with universal nature and all its influences as basis).
I predict corporatism will go out of control and corporations -- and any others who are rich -- will start engaging in open war with each other, using whatever there is at their disposal to survive -- mercenaries, militia, slave labor, nuclear weapons, biological weapons, chemical weapons, newly developed mind-controlling techniques, supertechnology, information warfare, etc.
Governments will cease to exist, though maybe remain there in name. Cities, towns, countries, will be in ruin and crime will dominate every street of the globe. There will be more drugs too: cheap, addictive drugs to strengthen the grip on people. Murder, killing, rape. Civilians die in heaps.
If a certain corporation's soldiers are hit, they hit 'em back as revenge. They will infiltrate each other more and more to sabotage and gather information. They will assassinate the leaders. Death and destruction.
That's my far-fetched prediction for the very late future. Does it sound too dark or negative? Well.... fehgeddaboudid.
If a certain corporation's soldiers are hit, they hit 'em back as revenge. They will infiltrate each other more and more to sabotage and gather information. They will assassinate the leaders. Death and destruction.
Sounds regressive and inefficient. Your scenario resembles the Medieval Medici more than corporate conflict.
Here's the Lemur's thought for the day: Capitalism is the most efficient method for distributing and creating wealth. However, it's short-sighted to think it will always be the best. And no, I don't have the foggiest notion of what may replace it, but it's entirely possible something will. And no, I'm not talking about any of the existing alternatives, which all have severe drawbacks -- Marxism, communes, cooperatives, etc. I'm imagining a completely new system, probably based at least partially on software.
Wouldn't it be nice to retain the profit motive and efficiency of capitalism while losing the tendencies toward monopolism, oligopolism and corruption? I expect some genius in the next couple of hundred years will put something forward.
Another thought: We will expand throughout our solar system, or we will fall into parochial barbarism. Expand or stagnate, and I'm hoping for the former.
If a certain corporation's soldiers are hit, they hit 'em back as revenge. They will infiltrate each other more and more to sabotage and gather information. They will assassinate the leaders. Death and destruction.
Sounds regressive and inefficient. Your scenario resembles the Medieval Medici more than corporate conflict.
I'm not familiar with medieval Medici, but I do remember it's about a powerful family...? In any case, if you don't like the part about hits, then fehgeddaboudid :)
Main scenario was the Earth in ruin and corporations that rule ruthlessly. Something like we have now which could be called a "mild form", but in the future a lot worse.
Samurai Waki
05-13-2007, 20:14
Probably some advanced form of Federalism in the future, it seems like the most efficient way to tie the human race together rather than seperate them based on culture/sex. But we're a long way off, and it won't happen in my lifetime, nor my Children's,Children's,Children's lifetime, well...I speculate.
doc_bean
05-13-2007, 20:50
What do you mean by far future ? 2100AD ? 2500AD ? 5000AD ? Later ?
A few ideas and possible scenarios:
* the human race is still more likely to wipe itself out then not. We have nukes, we're building a better bomb, we've got bio weapons and chemical weapons, we've got a lot of lunatics.
*If we look at histrory civilization seems to be moving towards a more libertarian society. From strict adherence to elders, medicine men, and rules of the group to universal slavery under a God-King, to fuedalism to aristocratic factory owners to democratic freedom... (vast simplification of history of course). We'll probably continue for a while to a more 'open' and 'free' society, whatever that will mean.
*corporations taking over is an interesting idea, it's a possibility, but i don't see that as a long term stable form of society.
* I think the ideal that we'll ever going to be completely peaceful (incl no crime) is probably never achievable, we're not wired that way.
* ...unless we change the wiring. Brave New World mentions the potential of specially bred workers and scientists and other classes. Eugenetics used to be popular, the idea of class or caste systems seems quite popular from time to time. Messing with genetics might change society in a BIG way. The idea that we'll all just be smarter, fitter, healthier and happier seems too optimistic to me, I suspect we might create a subclass of humans at some point, unless we can let the robots do it for us (NOTE: robot originally referred to human serfs, the word was first introduced in some 19th century sci fi book if I remember my wiki...)
* Robots ! Will we ever be able to create androids ? Machines that have equal intelligence as humans ? Superior intelligence perhaps ? Personally I think we're far removed from ever creating an artificial 'soul'. But someone might figure it out some day. I think such a discovery would completely change the world in a couple of years.
* the metaverse/Matrix/second life/internets. Hard to say what that will evolve into. It's hard to picture a future world were the 'virtual' world is unimportant though.
* Cybernetcs, cyborgs, mind to machine transplants. Kurzweil has some interesting ideas about how humans will evolve in the future, essentially, we'll all become cyborgs living more in a vuirtual world than in reality, and we'll be virtually immortal. Miniturization tech is getting more and more advanced, neurology is a very popular science nowadays, and we're always looking for ways to extend out lifetime. Who knows what will happen ?
*Space travel: unlikely to become really big unless we get a really good reason to go out there (resources or fleeing earth)
ajaxfetish
05-13-2007, 21:31
Well, I hear the scientists say that in the far future our sun will run out of fusable material, in the process expanding enough to engulf the earth before becoming a dead star. Of course the chances of humanity lasting that long seem very remote to me. Anyway, as the saying goes: 'in the long run, we are all dead.'
Ajax
What do you mean by far future ? 2100AD ? 2500AD ? 5000AD ? Later ?
Any far future you can think of, whether it's 2100, 2500, in-between or beyond :)
DemonArchangel
05-14-2007, 01:00
http://onastick.net/sitz/images/
In the Grim Future of Hello Kitty, there is only war.
Selected quotes
* the human race is still more likely to wipe itself out then not. We have nukes, we're building a better bomb, we've got bio weapons and chemical weapons, we've got a lot of lunatics.
*corporations taking over is an interesting idea, it's a possibility, but i don't see that as a long term stable form of society.
* I think the ideal that we'll ever going to be completely peaceful (incl no crime) is probably never achievable, we're not wired that way.
* ...unless we change the wiring.
Sorry to be a bit of a pessimist here, but I think you are correct about the human race wiping itself out, corporations/big business running the show, and never being able to achieving sweeping, lasting peace.
Why?
As the good doc said, we are hard-wired (in a sense) for conflict, and also for greed. I shall spare everyone my huge boring chain of logic, but suffice to say that I think greed, prejudice, and the propensity for violence are simply evolved versions of the same basic emotions that we see in our distant cousins, apes. These, coupled with our incredible intelligence, and (I think this is the right term) the fact that humans are pack animals and will always follow some form of central authority, is essentially a powderkeg. Maybe we can evolve beyond this or learn to deal with it, but so far I haven't seen much that gives me hope. :skull:
Seamus Fermanagh
05-14-2007, 05:39
Diaspora, within the next millenium.
We are too close -- in generations of techonology -- to constant boost capability and reliable enclosed remote environments.
Add in population pressure as an incentive....
Actually, the development of a reliable fusion engine to power a constant boost ship would make the entirety of the solar system available for use in short order. It would be my candidate for a "Manhattan" style project.
With constant boost ships, trips between stars become arduous and extremely costly (as opposed to flights of pure fancy).
rotorgun
05-14-2007, 06:25
Diaspora, within the next millenium.
We are too close -- in generations of techonology -- to constant boost capability and reliable enclosed remote environments.
Add in population pressure as an incentive....
With constant boost ships, trips between stars become arduous and extremely costly (as opposed to flights of pure fancy).
Interesting thesis Seamus, and quite foreseeable. I am in definate agreement with the population pressure idea. Provided we survive the up and coming energy and information technology wars I see on the horizon, some international movement to look for new forms of raw materials and living space is almost certain to become a reality. I just hope we do a better job of it than we did duriing the age of exploration in the 1500-1600's. In many ways journeys will likely be like those earlier times-long expanses of space to reach uncharted destinations with the undiscovered riches of the Solar System beckoning us to risk all. Not to mention the possobility of new frontiers to attract those with enough wanderlust to attempt colonization of Luna or Mars perhaps. If only we can leave our petty nationalistic tribalizm behind, what treasures await us?
KafirChobee
05-14-2007, 08:18
Well, as a wiseman (or was it stoned? - Jim M.) man once said, "No one gets out alive". After all only one guy ever came back - it's on Ripley's Believe it or not ... so it must be true.
Corporations already rule, USA CEO's on average make 541 times (was 452X a bit ago) the median wage of their employees ($65K a year) - not that long ago it was 40 times the lowest paid employee. So, what we have is a self propagating corporate system that assures those that control the $$$$$$ of the world can influence one government or even the world economy on a whim, if they do not agree with a government or determine it would be even more profitable for them in the long run to create a depression scenario. They already have the influence to determine Presidencys and install their representatives through the pure will of tossing money at them. [last election here they dropped the gas prices significantly - lasted less than 6 months, and the problem really was that they didn't do it soon enough to effect the election .... they panicked .... and it may cost them ... or not - the Dems may benefit from the oil dollars ... flexabilty os not a problem with big oil - or the DNC or GOP].
As to the far future? Personally, I would like to see us get through this presidency - I mean this guy believes in the "rapture" (a fictional sci-fi, non-biblical based scenario) first, and I imagine we will. God, Allah, Jehova, Zeus, Jupiter, Odin, etc. willing. But,... first we have to survive this presidency.
Still, the nations of the world have always been influenced by the major companys (they liked to think were "under their control") - and have always been intent on a one up manship political philosophy of one sort or another with their friends and especially their adversaries (please note that most of those adversaries were also their major economic competitors). Self interest is, after all, self interest. And, there in lies the problem for any real advancement (of man in general) toward a more equal world - or to create an atmosphere of real cooperation (aside from alliances of war, always presumably to prevent one) amongst nations of any and all issues concerning the betterment of all mankind or any kind of realistic future that might allow all humanbeings to attain a modest form of dignity - or atleast the means to survive above a poverty level (or eat on a daily basis).
Thing is, the people have no power; even those that can vote are easily influenced by simple phrases repeated over and over and over again by whom so ever that has the $$$$money$$$$ to keep their message on the air long enough to out weigh reality. This will not change, it is inherent in how business is done and how politics has always been done (in nearly all Anglo-Saxon politico's created by white folk - as in my ancestors). Point is, the powers that be were once Kings and Queens - today they are corporations.
BTW, has anyone else noticed the number of influential (wealthy beyond imagination) families that have been around seemingly forever (some since before the Romans)? They stay quietly in the back ground and seemingly are apolitical. Or, atleast they rarely demonstrate an opinion publically - and why should they since ..... a word by the mighty can be a hurricane in the ear of an opportunist.
Still, my rant not being the point here, If those of you young enough become hippies soon and run out to the streets to force a confrontation with the powers that be - ya'll may deter things for ... 50 years tops before either the terrorists realize that all it takes is for a "wild pig" to crap in a lettace field (to screw up our food supply ... according to the present FDA) , or that if they are smart .... we will destroy ourselves in due process.
"Waiting for the sun". Is a great song .... but, man out of his own greed will not be here to see or fear it. Greed, and ignoring the needs of all mankind will end all hope far before that occurs. Slavery? When exactly did that end in the world? Heck, the GOP'ers even introduced a Bill in 2005 that would have allowed kids to work in factories in the USA,;the GOP wants slavery - just not here, right now - they need time to explain what a good thing it would be for the economy ("econ-o-me" being one of their mantras that works for the dipshits that vote for mantras and not the rights of others than themselves, it is as it has always been. The GOP (GreedOverallPeople) have lost their course, their original beliefs ... oh wait ... their belief began when Silent Cal proclaimed "the business of America is business", that pretty much summed up what the new existance of America was and is ... and it should have warned the world of our import. Our purpose.
That purpose will end the world, at the first sign that we (USA) seems to be losing ground as a (the) "super power" we will attack any and all. It isn't our nature as a a populace - it is our ego and ignorance as the nation that sets world policy. If we can't be the top gun, then neither can anyone else. We are what we are, sad as it is - if we can't be numero uno, then ya'll may have a problem. Get it? BTW, Expect the Brits to get real excited if their "empire" shrinks much further.
Youngsters? Get behind the environmental initiatives of your particular nation, go to the streets when your nation sends your troops into places on the whim of your leader, and question everything - wrong is when one is silent - not when one makes a fuss and is wrong .... thing is the fussy ones are more oft right than those supporting their government's whim.
When one ceases questioning something ... they accept it.
When one stops asking questions that challenge the powers that be, then they accept them.
When no one is allowed to challenge the powers to be, then the powers that be win (those that challange that end up in a Guatanimo. By the concession of those fearing being called unpatriotic, unAmerican (unBritish, un_____insert nationality), they lose the ability to present theie own arguement. The acceptance of a lie is still the acceptance of lie..
Thing is, they won ... (in the USA atleast) about the time that Ike tried to warn us of the Military-Industrial-Complex (add Congress after military and you gots today). It is their option of when the world will end. 500 billion years ... right?
Future? Good luck with that -beyond 18 months. Honestly, I became a pessimist from experience - not because of a political affiliation. I came out of 'nam with an optomistic attitude toward mankind and my government, and maintained it 'til I was dumb enough to believe in Nixon's secret plan to get us out of 'nam (ergo save my friends scheduled to be fed into the machine). 'Nam was, is, and will always define the future for some in America - those willing to go into the next war as blindly as we did 'nam and then Iraq .(2003) ... 80% of America CAN BE convinced of anything after a crisis - or is that christist. Regardless, look to America to make or break the future. And people that have seen friends die in a war the politico-military-say-anyhing-Westmoreland-told-us-we-are-winning - we once adjusted our war policy so a 'nam situation might not happen again. Bush43, proved that a candidate need not win an election, so much as keep the count close enough to send the decision to people of that prefer your GOP party to one that might continue
The more crap fed americans, the more they love it. Give 'em a good commercial and they are happy ... as long as it resolidifies their prejudices. Thay is why we won't find or qurstion about our prez telling us to duck when he (whom ever .... my bets on a GOPist) decides yo protect us all from what ever the popular theme of the day is. You know?
Future world? Crap, how about surviving the near future. One thing that maybe a deciding factor in the length of our "future" is the sharing of wealth. See any future in that?
:balloon2:
Shaka_Khan
05-14-2007, 08:53
I think the middle class will take over the world. They'll invite the poor with them to overthrow the rich CEOs, but after the revolution, the middle class will double cross and enslave the poor.
Banquo's Ghost
05-14-2007, 09:25
Dear God, aren't you lot gloomy?
I think the next few years will certainly be challenging, but we shall soon solve our energy problem - ie its finite nature. With the resources of fusion power providing practically free energy, science and technology will be able to solve most of the world's food problems and free people from the slavery of endless toil. Capitalism and the free market will play a big part in this, but soon it will be possible for everyone to have pretty much what they need and aggressively competitive behaviours will fade - as they have done for most people in the first world now. Corporations will be brought to a more positive influence because education will increase and no-one can control a free and educated people.
As with the developed world currently, fewer and fewer children will be born, stabilising and then reducing the population. Because people will no longer need to work to live, more and more time will be spent on self-improvement. Gaia will start to reassert herself because we will no longer need to be sucking her life blood for our very existence.
When everyone is able to live in a decent and fulfilled way, money (as the measure of competition and the apparent guarantor of security) will no longer be used. Personal happiness will be the status of the day.
Given how far we have come (in the developed world) even since the mid-nineteenth century (let alone the last two thousand years) in terms of health and personal leisure time, reduction of the need to fight each other every day and other benchmarks of a peaceful civilisation, I don't see this as unreasonable. Heck, even in my lifetime I have seen miracles.
I despair at those who always bring up our animal natures as our doom. We are transcending those natures already, healing the sick, sharing wealth and so on. We are not slaves of our genetics, we have the proven ability to be more than those base drives, and I believe one day we will all see the benefits of that ability.
KafirChobee
05-14-2007, 09:32
Dear God, aren't you lot gloomy?
I think the next few years will certainly be challenging, but we shall soon solve our energy problem - ie its finite nature. With the resources of fusion power providing practically free energy, science and technology will be able to solve most of the world's food problems and free people from the slavery of endless toil. Capitalism and the free market will play a big part in this, but soon it will be possible for everyone to have pretty much what they need and aggressively competitive behaviours will fade - as they have done for most people in the first world now. Corporations will be brought to a more positive influence because education will increase and no-one can control a free and educated people.
As with the developed world currently, fewer and fewer children will be born, stabilising and then reducing the population. Because people will no longer need to work to live, more and more time will be spent on self-improvement. Gaia will start to reassert herself because we will no longer need to be sucking her life blood for our very existence.
When everyone is able to live in a decent and fulfilled way, money (as the measure of competition and the apparent guarantor of security) will no longer be used. Personal happiness will be the status of the day.
Given how far we have come (in the developed world) even since the mid-nineteenth century (let alone the last two thousand years) in terms of health and personal leisure time, reduction of the need to fight each other every day and other benchmarks of a peaceful civilisation, I don't see this as unreasonable. Heck, even in my lifetime I have seen miracles.
I despair at those who always bring up our animal natures as our doom. We are transcending those natures already, healing the sick, sharing wealth and so on. We are not slaves of our genetics, we have the proven ability to be more than those base drives, and I believe one day we will all see the benefits of that ability.
Good luck with that, as I said, I too was once an optomist. I like your summation more than mine, but .... mine is more realistic.
Duke Malcolm
05-14-2007, 09:58
I think the middle class will take over the world. They'll invite the poor with them to overthrow the rich CEOs, but after the revolution, the middle class will double cross and enslave the poor.
Isn't that already happening?
English assassin
05-14-2007, 11:09
I for one welcome our cephalopod overlords.
A few less random thoughts:
Space travel will not releive population pressure. There just isn't enough energy to get a billion people out of the earth's gravity well. We're here and we're staying. I wouldn't think colonisation of the solar system was at all impossible (query why you would do it) , but I would see it leading to an Asimov style world or a packed earth, and largely empty skies, with the humans occupying each having very different lives and agendas.
There's got to be a serious risk of it all going Pete Tong in the next 100 years. Global economy, peak population, possible energy crisis, climate change, all making a nice set of problems for the middle of the century. This will require global political leadership of great courage and insight. On present showing, then, we are :daisy: ed
If we get over that, Borg-world ! At 37 I'm not exactly an old fart yet, but even in those 37 years our increased connectivity and reliance on technology is remarkable. I can phone America on the train! I carry my record collection in my pocket! (Some might question whether digitising Saxon truly represents progress, but I digress). I talk nonsense on an internet forum ! And this is just the start. I find the whole myspace-social networking thing very odd (whatever happened to "I vant to be alone?) but ten million teenagers can't be wrong. Even without fancy implantable technology (which I suppose is possible, although I have to ask why you would want to) the social changes this connectivity will drive will be huge. Once they are all networked up with always on high speed wireless connectivity in gadgets the size of an Ipod will people even think of themselves as individuals any more?
God help us. I'll be sitting under a tree reading a book :yes:
Isn't that already happening?
Completely opposite in America actually... Middle class has taken a huge beating in the past few years.
Very nice romantic notions here, that somehow humans will survive to destroy themselves in combat of some kind, I always like those.
I suspect that in the immediate future a clever lot will get a nuke and set it off in Washington DC creating a massive vacum of power in the states where we end up with 4-5 new countries.
For the rest of the world? I dont know pick your nationalistic/historical hatred and amplify it with the availability of advanced weapon systems and anamosity over resource/wealth imbalance.
Or
All of us continue to piss into the wind, Mother nature pisses back and the deteriation of the ozone/global warming becomes irreversable and we all go down the crapper.
Then the insects get thier shot for 2-10 million years.
The Wizard
05-14-2007, 15:14
In the future, your children's children's children will all hail my name as the One True Savior, the Great God-King who saved the Earth from the depredations of democracy, freedom, free speech, and other such barbaric, savage expressions of imperfection and sheer horror. So what if they're breaking their backs toiling to build monuments in my name? Freedom is for death; life was not made for it. All live and die for my divine countenance, and sigh in true thanks as my men dispense my freedom and peace in the generous way that I have taught them.
KukriKhan
05-14-2007, 15:16
We're about due for a new religion, so I think that'll happen in the not so-distant future.
Politically, we've been identifying with larger and more-encompassing groups, from Family, to clan, to tribe, to city-state, to nation - while philosophically moving in the opposite direction, toward emphasis on the individual human, and his rights and responsibilities.
So, IMO, we're in need of some kind of unifying framework to embrace all that, and maybe move beyond our reliance on the movement of electrons for connection to a broader world than our individual eyeballs can apprehend. Especially since getting those electrons to swirl about so far entails sucking up the residue of our dead predessessors, ultimately, a finite resource.
doc_bean
05-14-2007, 15:20
@BG: An actual optimist is a rare thing these days :laugh4:
Don't get me wrong, I recognize we, as human, can show compassion and love towards eachother. The problem is, it only takes one bad apple to ruin the basket. In the good old days when someone wanted to be bad they might have killed someone, now they take their semi-automatic and kill 33, or make a nice bomb and kill 50 or so, how much longer before a single person can kill thousands ? millions ? (arguably, this already happened with Chernobyl, but let's classify that as an accident). There will *always* be people who resort to violence, and the damage they'll be able to do will keep increasing, We'll need to protect ourselves and bring an element of violence/oppresion of our own to the table because of it.
@Kafir : Can you name one of those families who has been in power since the Romans ? I'm honestly curious.
@EA: Perhaps someone will get the bright idea of introducing "Democracy Live!" where the representative democracy is dropped in favour of a 'full' democracy where everyone can vote on everything if they want to. Imagine the people voting for BB exits now voting for your laws...
@ Seamus and Rotorgun: I don't see space travel developping before there's really something out there worth our time, effort and money. The people financing those endavours will probably remain on earth and would want something tangible for their money. The people leaving would need a really good reason to leave. Remember that the 'new world' back in the age of discovery was a pretty nice place to go and live, Mars ain't.
Banquo's Ghost
05-14-2007, 16:15
@BG: An actual optimist is a rare thing these days :laugh4:
Optimist maybe - but if we only think badly of ourselves, the bad is all we'll get.
My countryman, Oscar Wilde, said it best for me:
"We are all in the gutter - but some of us are looking at the stars."
Mikeus Caesar
05-14-2007, 17:23
Future? What future?
You can try and be optimistic that scientists will finally harness the glory of fusion power, but i doubt it will happen. The day the fossil fuels run out, human society will go to hell in a handbasket, and once that happens, the process will be irreversable. We'll be stuck with a pre-industrial society forever, with the broken remnants of our once 'great' society decaying all around us. We think we're so brilliant, but ultimately all that will be left of us is a thin layer of broken plastic and glass, in between the mud and shale.
The Wizard
05-14-2007, 17:52
Meh, human civilization works in cycles, anyways. With how they describe a nuclear detonation in the Mahabharata, you might even think this isn't the first time we've climbed out of the gutter. Besides, wouldn't it be nice for it to be legal to brain a blabbering fool with a mace without being chased by police? ~D
The day the fossil fuels run out, human society will go to hell in a handbasket, and once that happens, the process will be irreversable. We'll be stuck with a pre-industrial society forever, with the broken remnants of our once 'great' society decaying all around us.
I seem to remember a movie about this ...
My life fades; the vision dims. All that remains are memories. I remember a time of chaos, ruined dreams this wasted land. But most of all, I remember the Road Warrior, the man we called Max.
To understand who he was, you have to go back to another time, when the world was powered by the black fuel, and the deserts sprouted great cities of pipe and steel. Gone now, swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war, and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all.
Without fuel they were nothing. They'd built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked but nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled, the cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men.
On the roads it was a white-line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay ordinary men were battered and smashed.
Men like Max, the warrior Max. In the roar of an engine, he lost everything, and became a shell of a man; a burnt out, desolate man, a man haunted by the demons of his past. A man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here in this blighted place that he learned to live again.
Mikeus Caesar
05-14-2007, 18:08
Yes, i do believe the future will be like mad max. Maybe not quite so drastic, but still a bleak future without much in the way of advancement.
English assassin
05-14-2007, 18:53
Yes, i do believe the future will be like mad max. Maybe not quite so drastic,
Phew. Mad Max had me worried, but Mildly Miffed Max, I think I can cope with.
rotorgun
05-14-2007, 19:09
@ Seamus and Rotorgun: I don't see space travel developping before there's really something out there worth our time, effort and money. The people financing those endavours will probably remain on earth and would want something tangible for their money. The people leaving would need a really good reason to leave. Remember that the 'new world' back in the age of discovery was a pretty nice place to go and live, Mars ain't.-doc_bean
Just let one of our probes discover something really valuable in large enough quantites to justify the expense, and it'll be "Katie, bar the door" in the efforts made to get there first. Imagine the gold rush of 1890. There were plenty of folks willing to risk life and limb to attain the "mother lode" and thereby gain a lifetime of wealth. As for those who would want to live on Mars, I agree that it is beyond the scope of most people today, but it is seriously being considered by some pretty smart folks among the worlds space exploration community.
Heck, I might even want to move there if I wasn't so old and tied down with the cares of my life. At least I would get a little peace and quiet for a change. :dizzy2:
doc_bean
05-14-2007, 20:09
Just let one of our probes discover something really valuable in large enough quantites to justify the expense, and it'll be "Katie, bar the door" in the efforts made to get there first. Imagine the gold rush of 1890. There were plenty of folks willing to risk life and limb to attain the "mother lode" and thereby gain a lifetime of wealth. As for those who would want to live on Mars, I agree that it is beyond the scope of most people today, but it is seriously being considered by some pretty smart folks among the worlds space exploration community.
Heck, I might even want to move there if I wasn't so old and tied down with the cares of my life. At least I would get a little peace and quiet for a change. :dizzy2:
But whatever they find ahs to worth transporting too, gold is nice stuff, but do we really need more of it ? And is it worth the cost of mining and transporting (which would be huge) ?
Maybe rich uranium could be worth the effort, but we have enough of that here on earth for a few hundred years, and I doubt the populace would be in favour of making our planet just a little more radioactive.
Mikeus Caesar
05-14-2007, 20:14
Maybe rich uranium could be worth the effort, but we have enough of that here on earth for a few hundred years, and I doubt the populace would be in favour of making our planet just a little more radioactive.
Actually...
I recall reading something somewhere (not sure what, but it was a credible source) that said at the rate our power plants and constant renewal of bomb uranium are consuming the stuff, we only have 70 years of it left.
doc_bean
05-14-2007, 20:17
Actually...
I recall reading something somewhere (not sure what, but it was a credible source) that said at the rate our power plants and constant renewal of bomb uranium are consuming the stuff, we only have 70 years of it left.
There are indeed two schools of thought on the subject, I know professors supporting the hundreds of years theory and left wing environmentalists supporting the few decades estimate.
Either might be right of course, but considering the supporters I know, I'd say a few hundred years seems more likely.
Mikeus Caesar
05-14-2007, 20:21
The source i heard it from (which i repeat, was credible but i can't recall) wasn't getting their info from left-wing environmentalists, but from a scientific source.
doc_bean
05-14-2007, 21:06
Well, either way, it's besides the issue, we'd REALLY need some Uranium before we decide to get it from Mars. The costs of personel that need to be payed for 4 years alone would be immense, not to mention equipment and mining costs.
Just let one of our probes discover something really valuable in large enough quantites to justify the expense, and it'll be "Katie, bar the door" in the efforts made to get there first.
I got one for ya: helium-3 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helium_3).
Assuming we can ever get efficient fusion power working, this stuff is going to be worth its weight in rather more than gold.
rotorgun
05-14-2007, 23:53
Here's an intersesting possibility to wet the appetite of future space entrepreneurs.
The long-term possibilities are even more celestial. Ever heard of 3554 Amun? It's a space rock about 2 kilometers in diameter that looks as if it might have fallen straight out of The Little Prince. There are three key things to know about 3554 Amun: First, its orbit crosses that of Earth; second, it's the smallest M-class (metal-bearing) asteroid yet discovered; and finally, it contains (at today's prices) roughly $8 trillion worth of iron and nickel, $6 trillion of cobalt, and $6 trillion of platinumlike metals. In other words, whoever owns Amun could become 450 times as wealthy as Bill Gates. And if you time your journey right -- 2020 looks promising -- it's easier to reach than the Moon.Business2.0 http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/27/technology/business2_guidetospaceintro/
That's just the sort of thing that would kick-start our entry into the solar system
in the near future. From there it is only a short step to colonization and exploitation. Once a decent propulsion system is produced that can make Solar System travel feasible, it will become a relaity rather quickly. Look how far we have come in just over 100 years since manned flight became a reality. I am no tremendous optimist, but I have faith in the human race to follow suit with the past and head out into the unkown in the future.
PS: Very good example Lemur
doc_bean
05-15-2007, 09:44
Here's an intersesting possibility to wet the appetite of future space entrepreneurs.
There are several key problems with mining the asteroid though
1)practical considerations of mining: there are probably two ways to go about mining such an asteroid, the crude way is flying up to it, blowing it to bits and collecting as much as you can carry. The more sophisticated way involves connecting with the asteroid and forcing it into a geostationary orbit, then cutting off little pieces (possibly extracting up there ?) and fly those back down. Both aren't trivial operations by far.
2)The cost of mining, operations as described above will cost billions, perhaps they would be profitable, but you'd need serious venture capital before considering it.
3) Environmental impact. I might sounds like a Euroweenie here, but does transporting more heavy metals, which are for the most part dangerous, to earth sound like a good thing ? What happens if one of the transport ships blows up in the atmosphere ? The environmental catastrophy that could lead to would be tremendous.
4) Supply and demand laws. Some claim to huge amounts of gold imported from the Americans in the end helped bankrupt Spain. Is there a demand for so much heavy metal ? What would they be used for ? Prices would probably drop tremendously, thus making the whole endavour operate at a loss.
Frankly, the only reason I can see we'd need the extra recyclable resources is if we'd go into space, then it might become a self supporting system.
EDIT: Though Lemur seems to have a point according to wiki:
It is believed that the Moon's surface has large amounts of helium-3 in the lunar regolith.[12] At the start of the 21st century several countries planned to explore the Moon and to use its resources. Helium-3 is expected to be one of those resources if a commercial fusion process is created. Yet to be determined is the exact quantity of helium-3 which the solar wind traps and deposits on the lunar surface. As of our current knowledge of lunar regolith, it is exceedingly scarce (ppb quantities mixed in with ppm quantities of He4), and may be beneath the point of economic recovery. However, processes to extract other materials from the lunar regolith could cover the majority of the energy expenditures in extraction; Helium-3 extraction might be piggybacked on these processes.
Cosmochemist and geochemist Ouyang Ziyuan from the Chinese Academy of Sciences who is now in charge of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program has already stated on many occasions that one of the main goals of the program would be the mining of helium-3, from where "each year three space shuttle missions could bring enough fuel for all human beings across the world."[13]
In January 2006 the Russian space company RKK Energiya announced that it considers lunar helium-3 a potential economic resource to be mined by 2020.[14]
Rodion Romanovich
05-15-2007, 10:21
Far future: I think we'll manage to build an uber-cool space shuffle shortly before the sun explodes, but it will turn out that all energy needed to launch the shuttle had already been used for playing "snake" on mobile phones, vibrating massagers, and watching "Lost" on TV.
KafirChobee
05-15-2007, 20:24
Energy? How did we get to worrying about nuclear power? Isn't France already recycling their Uranium, and it seems an indeffinate process - though the off spring of it is High weapons grade plutonium.
Back around 1973 a guest on Paul Harvey radio show [ http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Harvey ] made the suggestion that just three turbines place in the Gulf Stream would generated enough power for the entire Eastern seaboard - two in operation and one in refurbishment on a rotating basis. Of course nothing was ever done, and has yet to be done - though it is plausable.
A teenager a few years back won some H.S. scientist award for proving the generation of energy using tides (waves) - of course this is hardly a new concept, but if even a kid can develope a system to do it? Why aren't more human resources (sciences) being used to develope it. To costly? To what?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_power
There are simply to many natural sources of energy - and safer than nuclear - for there to be any concern about energy. Except the new push to approve more coal power plants - and this insain idea about selling off pollution points.
Depending on who wins the debate on our sources of energy, may determine whether there is a future. Deter global warming, or continue contributing to it. Continue the attack on the worlds' environment - or not.
doc_bean
05-15-2007, 20:28
Back around 1973 a guest on Paul Harvey radio show [ http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Harvey ] made the suggestion that just three turbines place in the Gulf Stream would generated enough power for the entire Eastern seaboard - two in operation and one in refurbishment on a rotating basis. Of course nothing was ever done, and has yet to be done - though it is plausable.
From some reason, removing massive amounts of energy from one of the most critical sources of global 'climate control' doesn't sound like a great plan to me...
discovery1
05-15-2007, 20:40
I suspect those turbines would have to be unreasonably large.
Anyway, you are all missing the point. Energy sources will change sure, but that is a minor detail. The main point is that Lemur's horde will take over Earth, while I and my college buddies will flee to space and establish ourselves as the Empire of Heaven.
Mikeus Caesar
05-15-2007, 20:50
I suspect those turbines would have to be unreasonably large.
Anyway, you are all missing the point. Energy sources will change sure, but that is a minor detail. The main point is that Lemur's horde will take over Earth, while I and my college buddies will flee to space and establish ourselves as the Empire of Heaven.
A flying washing machine stuff fulled of beer bottles does not count as a space empire.
Watchman
05-15-2007, 21:38
From some reason, removing massive amounts of energy from one of the most critical sources of global 'climate control' doesn't sound like a great plan to me...Sounds like something the Soviets could have come up with. Didja know, they apparently once had the bright idea of damming the Bering Straits so some warm water stream would be redirected to run along the Siberian coast, turning it into a Garden of Eden...
:skull:
Given their track record with the Aral Sea and such, I think we can regard ourselves as pretty lucky they never got around to trying out these larger-scale terraforming jewels likely conceived after a bit too much vodka.
Seamus Fermanagh
05-15-2007, 21:55
Sounds like something the Soviets could have come up with. Didja know, they apparently once had the bright idea of damming the Bering Straits so some warm water stream would be redirected to run along the Siberian coast, turning it into a Garden of Eden...
:skull:
Given their track record with the Aral Sea and such, I think we can regard ourselves as pretty lucky they never got around to trying out these larger-scale terraforming jewels likely conceived after a bit too much vodka.
The Soviets never did think on a "small scale" did they?
The Turbines idea is interesting. Would have to determine if the transfer of motion would alter the Gulf Stream in any appreciable fashion.
Like to see more renewable energy sources like this considered as well as the nuclear option. Burning less in the way of fossil fuels to produce power can't be an inherently bad thing, no?
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