UK in "not pussyfooting around" shock

[English assassin]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,,2085363,00.html


Former KGB spy faces Litvinenko murder charge

The Crown Prosecution Service today recommended that Andrei Lugovoi, a Russian businessman and former KGB spy who met Alexander Litvinenko in London on the day he fell ill with polonium poisoning, be charged with his murder.

A warrant has been issued for the arrest of Moscow-based Mr Lugovoi, although Britain does not have an extradition treaty with Russia.

The director of public prosecutions, Sir Ken Macdonald, described the murder as an "extraordinarily grave crime" and said the case was "clearly in the public interest".


Top stuff. I was worried that the Foreign Office would try to stop this so as not to upset Putin. Either the CPS has balls, or, even more interestingly, the FCO may have decided that its simply not possible to avoid annoying Putin any more.

I'm not exactly expecting anything to happen once the Russians reject the warrant, but at least Mr Lugovoi's future travel plans will have to be rather restricted.

[Odin]

I'm curious as to the political implications of the indictment (not to dismiss this mans death, thats not my intent with this post). Increasingly the west is becoming more hostile towards Russia and vice versa.

I dont know how a mad putin would affect the UK directly, I wish I knew the energy the UK got from Russia directly. This tension with the EU started with Ukraine and the energy shortages, I think the EU as a whole is getting a little worried about the course of Russia.

I know this is a UK indictment and issue at present but I see this in the larger context of EU/Russian relations.

Hows it playing in the press and on the streets in the EU fella's?

[English assassin]

I dont know how a mad putin would affect the UK directly, I wish I knew the energy the UK got from Russia directly.

Well, not very many years ago, the UK's medium term energy plan projected that we would get 80%, that's right folks, 80%, of our electricity from gas fired power stations fueled via a pipeline from, you guessed, Russia.

Evidently our civil servants could see nothing at all wrong with this plan.

After the little debacle with the Ukraine, I believe the plan is being quitely reconsidered. But if the short judo champion had only held his hand for a few more years, he would have had the UK by the nuts and no mistake.

To be honest Odin, as you would expect, in the UK people in the street are still more interested in the next episode of Eastenders that Russia's plans for regional influence, and our mostly vile newspapers react accordingly. The broadsheets are carrying more sceptical coverage (eg the Times today has a piece questioning the "attempted assassination" of the mayor of St Petersburg, suggesting that she may be a stopgap president for 2008-2012 before Putin comes back, and that the alleged attack was arranged by Putin to get her good publicity (and very possibly at the same time to remind her that a REAL attack could also be arranged.)

The fact that you don't exactly murder someone with radioactive polonium and hope that it won't be traced back to the Russian government has not entirely escaped notice either. Putin is certainly sending some messages isn't he?

[Odin]

The fact that you don't exactly murder someone with radioactive polonium and hope that it won't be traced back to the Russian government has not entirely escaped notice either. Putin is certainly sending some messages isn't he?

I suspect that Russia as a whole is not to happy with thier dwindling sphere of influence. So as a world power do you go on about your losses or do you flex the muscle you still control? I suspect Russian behavior will continue to evolve with the energy issue as it pertains to the EU. This the lever Russia still has on the european bloc, and while Russia shouldnt bite the hand that feeds, world consumption of energy suggests for the time being that demand will support the Russian flexing of muscle.

As far as the murder goes, to me, how that played in the states and how I truly read it is a Russian security matter. Russia never seemed to have any qualms of killing its dissenters in grotesque fashions. the fact that it played out in the UK and has a broader political tone is a secondary circumstance IMHO.

[English assassin]

the fact that it played out in the UK and has a broader political tone is a secondary circumstance IMHO.

Yes, I expect that is right. Its not exactly the first time an Eastern European has been offed in London in a way that came straight out of a James Bond movie. The message is mainly to the other Russian exiles living in London, although I suspect the Russian Government won't be sorry at the two fingers to the UK ("So, you won't extradite Berezovsky? So what? We can get them in London too")

[nokhor]

russia will probably say they won't hand over lugovoi, unless the u.k. hands over berezovsky who russia claims is a criminal and who has political asylum in the u.k. they've been after the u.k. to hand him over for years. so they might do a swap.

[Odin]

russia will probably say they won't hand over lugovoi, unless the u.k. hands over berezovsky who russia claims is a criminal and who has political asylum in the u.k. they've been after the u.k. to hand him over for years. so they might do a swap.

I heard that on the radio just a few minutes ago, I guess berezovsky likes to spend his money with anti kremlin activity....

It also mentioned that BP has a stake in some russian oil field that the state is attempting to take over....

This definately bares watching, the assination aside, the potential politics could be messy.

[CrossLOPER]

I heard that on the radio just a few minutes ago, I guess berezovsky likes to spend his ill earned money with anti kremlin activity....
fixed

[Don Corleone]

Who said Russia's power is dwindling. The reason Putin is acting this way stems directly from their resurgent world influence. Do you think he would have dared carry off such an obviously Kremlin ordered attack in a major western power's capital 10 years ago? EA's not as right as he thinks....the UK may not rely on Russia for gas as much as they once did, but somebody's keeping Gasprom in business.

In the past 3 years, Putin went from 'I want to be friend to the West' to:

-Shutting off the Ukraine's gas supply for electing the wrong candidate
-Murdering a high profile target in London in a way that left little doubt he ordered it and arranged it
-Declared the US to be an enemy of Russia and that we are the equivalent of Nazi Germany....

Okay, you could get the 3rd one just by reading DailyKos.com, but you get my point.

Putin is signalling the world that in his mind, he's off his tether and we had better start treating him with a little more fear and respect. Notice you don't see Hu Jintao raising a ruckus about the Russians flooding Hainan with cadmium? Seems like Mr. Hu got the message loud and clear.... :skull:

And if you still doubt just what Putin's ambitions are, let me leave you with this little question... where do you think the Iranian nuclear weapons program is coming from?

[Banquo's Ghost]

And if you still doubt just what Putin's ambitions are, let me leave you with this little question... where do you think the Iranian nuclear weapons program is coming from?

Pakistan?

[Don Corleone]

I think Putin's answer on the Iranian nuclear weapons question wasn't so much a denial as a 'It's none of your business what we're up to'. Yes, Khan went and helped the Iranians, but I'm talking about the logistics, the centrifuges and the raw uranium. That had to come from somewhere. For that matter, where did Pakistan get Uranium from?

[nokhor]

i don't think putin would ever extradite lugovoi for several reasons.

1. the berezovsky deal
2. russian law prohibits the extradition of russian nationals
3. lugovoi is ex-intelligence services like putin himself.
4. it would be seen as a weakening of russian power and prestige and caving in to the West after all of russia's recent bluster about western encroachment.
5. if it was a kremlin ordered hit, and lugovoi took down a traitor in his mind, but was then sold out by russia in his turn, who knows what tidbits about the kgb he would be willing to divulge after being betrayed by his own country?
6. it would send a bad message to all other russian spies and assassins that "you do your job well, and we still might sell you down the river, if it is in our interests."

if hypothetically somehow, the british managed to bring unbearable diplomatic pressure upon russia, then i am sure mr. lugovoi, will 'accidentally' be run over by a semi 18 times, on his way to being extradited.

[Big King Sanctaphrax]

Well, seeing as the Russians have already shown they're willing to conduct clandestine operations in the UK, I say that if they don't agree to extradite him, we kidnap him, try him, and then send him back if we find him innocent.

[Crazed Rabbit]

I like the cut of your jib, BKS.

CR

[Don Corleone]

Ironically, it's probably one of the few responses Putin might actually respect. There'd be hell to pay, sure, but he'd think twice about trying that trick again any time soon.

[English assassin]

Berezovsky was on the radio this morning (from Israel. I guess he figured Putin may not care about MI6, but he wont "daisy" around with MOSSAD. Probably right too.) He observed that in the UK, Lugovoi is the accused. In Russia, he is a witness, to a crime ordered by the state.

B commented that Mr Lugovoi might not get to draw his pension.

Do be doo, who knows, I've got no illusions about Berezovsky either. Why can't Russians kill each other IN RUSSIA, that's what I would like to know.

@DC, you are right, I'm going to look up where we get our energy from. At present I think we are still using the dying embers of North sea oil and gas, so, although we do have a gas pipeline in, and in steady state we may well get some from Russia, we could at present ride out a shut down by ramping up North sea production. But I am pretty sure that situation will change in the next few years. Also our older nuclear plants are going to go off line in the near future.

BTW, I heard somewhere that one of the factors behind the geniuses in Whitehall being told to think again about 80% of our future energy being Russian was AMERICAN officials saying that they would prefer it if the UK was not instantly blackmailable by Russia, please.

So, its nice that someone was looking out for us. Shame it wasn't the people we pay to do it, but there you go.

[Odin]

Who said Russia's power is dwindling. The reason Putin is acting this way stems directly from their resurgent world influence. Do you think he would have dared carry off such an obviously Kremlin ordered attack in a major western power's capital 10 years ago? EA's not as right as he thinks....the UK may not rely on Russia for gas as much as they once did, but somebody's keeping Gasprom in business.

In the past 3 years, Putin went from 'I want to be friend to the West' to:

-Shutting off the Ukraine's gas supply for electing the wrong candidate
-Murdering a high profile target in London in a way that left little doubt he ordered it and arranged it
-Declared the US to be an enemy of Russia and that we are the equivalent of Nazi Germany....

Okay, you could get the 3rd one just by reading DailyKos.com, but you get my point.

Putin is signalling the world that in his mind, he's off his tether and we had better start treating him with a little more fear and respect. Notice you don't see Hu Jintao raising a ruckus about the Russians flooding Hainan with cadmium? Seems like Mr. Hu got the message loud and clear.... :skull:

And if you still doubt just what Putin's ambitions are, let me leave you with this little question... where do you think the Iranian nuclear weapons program is coming from?

Lets not forget the little tidbits that have led to these items, 2 of which are merely rhetoric:

1. Poland has at a minimum been an ongoing beligerent to Russia in many ways, the latest happens to be potential hosting of a U.S. missle defense system.

2. Ukraine leaving the spehere of Russian influence. Comparisson? Australlia or UK leaving the U.S. Sphere?

3. U.N./U.S. threats against the Iranian nuclear porgram, IE a russian built program that generates revenue (when Iran pays).

4. Larger U.S. fot print in Central Asia, put Afghanistan aside for a minute the other little "stans" teter between western ideals and russian influence.

5.Expansion of Nato

These are just 5 rough points off the top of my head. Im not claiming that Putin is justified, but you place a bear in a cage and poke it long enough you should expect it to growl.

What bares watching in this equation is the continued hold the russian state places over its energy sector, thats been under the radar for a while (with the exception of Gasprom). Putin has put his successor in a power position that dosent require a military to excersise.

[JR-]

Who said Russia's power is dwindling.
is is inevitably becoming a basket case.

it has a population crash ensuing.
those left will be unhealthy alcoholics.
it will run out of gas itself in 25 years.
it has virtually nothing to replace this loss with, economically speaking.
its conventional military is a shambles, capable of little, and inclined to do less.
it is run by a despot who will discourage foriegn investment needed for russias economy.
corruption is endemic in both the public and the private sphere of life.
there are now more chinese living in siberia than russians.
russia has one of the fastest growing muslim minorities, few well disposed to good ol' mother russia.
its sphere of influence is dwindling as the EU and NATO gobble-up former satellite states.

not looking too good is it?

[Banquo's Ghost]

is is inevitably becoming a basket case.

it has a population crash ensuing.
those left will be unhealthy alcoholics.
it will run out of gas itself in 25 years.
it has virtually nothing to replace this loss with, economically speaking.
its conventional military is a shambles, capable of little, and inclined to do less.
it is run by a despot who will discourage foriegn investment needed for russias economy.
corruption is endemic in both the public and the private sphere of life.
there are now more chinese living in siberia than russians.
russia has one of the fastest growing muslim minorities, few well disposed to good ol' mother russia.
its sphere of influence is dwindling as the EU and NATO gobble-up former satellite states.

not looking too good is it?

It looks even less good when you count the thousands of nuclear warheads they still have and a very nationalist outlook. Less good for us, that is.

[JR-]

as i said to my eastern european G'F in a moment of tender empathy; "your country has a nervous 25 years coming up while russia gets more and more desperate, but if you guys survive the next quarter century then your in the clear because after that russia will be an irrevocably dead country, great-power wise anyway."

[Watchman]

"By Russian law the citizens of that state cannot be tried in courts abroad, only murdered."
- sarcastic local newspaper wag