-
The Final US Election Thread
Well the election is finally upon us… errr… you… and as such this will be the final election day/night thread that Kukri has asked me to open. I’ve been following the election very closely, especially the tactics and polling, so I feel I can offer some analysis of what to expect on election night. There is also a lot of polling data collected below for those who want it (I only included the most important states). I’ve put up the polling not just for the President but also for the most competitive Senate races and the likely house results.
The first map I thought I would create is where I believe the race currently stands – both based on polling and a gut feeling. Yellow is a toss-up. After that I shall run through the various likely scenarios based on this map.
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...ssUpStates.jpg
Where I believe the race is.
Simply put, the simplest way for Obama to win this election is to win the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. This puts him at 273 Electoral Votes, needing 270 for victory.
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...amaEasyWin.jpg
Obama’s simplest route to victory – Kerry + IA + CO + NM
However, Obama is not just winning in those three states (Though he is winning all of them); he is also winning in many other states according to the polls. As such I thought it would be worth putting together a ‘best case’ scenario for the Obama campaign that shows what a map where Obama wins in an absolute landslide would be.
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...aLandslide.jpg
An Obama landslide – not likely but still imaginable.
Of course there are many, many middle ground options – such as losing Colorado while winning Virginia. Obama has a solid lead in many EVs and as such there are a lot of routes open to victory for him.
So what does McCain have to do to win? You can see a basic idea here and a more complex one here. In essence the two maps below show the likely results:
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...McCainwin1.jpg
McCain win 1
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...McCainwin2.jpg
McCain win 2
Note that in map 1 Nevada is absolutely crucial because if it flipped to Obama there would be an electoral college tie and as such Obama would win the Presidency after a vote from the Democratic House. Map 2 seems slightly more plausible because it relies on fewer things going McCain’s way – he can still afford to lose a few EVs along the way and he only has to flip 1 states while holding onto the Toss-ups (Examples might include losing Missouri or Indiana, which puts McCain on 270, just enough to scrape in).
Just a small note on the Popular Vote – I think it will be hard to determine what will happen with this. While I believe Obama will win it by 4 or 5 points it may be hard to tell what will happen on the west coast. An early call of the race (Which seems likely if Obama does in fact win both Virginia and North Carolina) may dampen turnout in California, which will probably knock off a lot of Obama’s votes.
So here is the Presidential polling data from numerous sources for several states (As of when I posted this – they will probably change on the morning of the election – I’ll do a polling update then). Intrade is an election betting site – and it has been fairly stable and has remained with the other polling sources fairly closely most of the year. If anyone wants me to look at any other state and give my view on what will happen, feel free and I’ll get right onto it. The same goes for the Senate races.
The four Senate races down the bottom are the most competitive this year and all will be interesting on election night (especially the three-way race in Minnesota where the Libertarian is polling in double digits). If the winner of the Georgia race is below 50%, which is entirely possible given that the Libertarian is in mid single digits, then it goes to a run-off later on – that race would attract millions of dollars on both sides. The Democrats are almost guaranteed to win 55 seats, with 2 Democratic-leaning Independents as well. Winning any 3 of the below will give the Democrats a filibuster-proof majority.
The House numbers are just something I tagged onto the end for anyone who is interested. Cook Political Report and CQ Politics don’t just use polling numbers; they also look at how well a politician matches their district politically. I really don’t know enough about most of the House stuff to be able to comment on it with any authority.
Important States
Colorado
Florida
Indiana
Missouri
Montana
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Popular Vote
Key Senate Races
Alaska
Incumbent – Stevens (R)
Challenger – Begich (D)
Note that Stevens has recently been indicted and as such he is unlikely to hold onto his seat.
Georgia
Incumbent – Chambliss (R)
Challenger – Martin (D)
Kentucky
Incumbent – McConnell (R)
Challenger – Lunsford (D)
Minnesota
Incumbent – Coleman (R)
Challenger – Franken (D), Barkley (L)
House Results
Currently 236 D – 198 R
Pollster.com
Democrats – 245
Republicans – 166
Toss Up – 24
Real Clear Politics
Democrats – 236
Republicans – 173
Toss Up – 26
CQ Politics – Very reputable
Democrats – 241
Republicans – 168
Toss Up – 26
Cook Political Report – Also reputable
Democrats – 238
Republicans – 161
Toss Up – 35
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
A couple of small towns in New Hampshire opened their polls just minutes after midnight, their time, therefore:
this thread is now Open For Business. Thank you CountArach for the OP.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Yes good op, love reading the various polls and stuff, so CA which of your potential results do you think most likely ?
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Wow, really great work there CA.
I think tonight is going to be like an Obama landslide, but not as much
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Nicely done Arach -- a balanced analysis where you've outlined all the key variables. Well done. My thoughts just after the nominations were decided was more or less a slight variant on your Obama case 1 win.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
If we keep giving CA all of this love he's going to be unlivable. Please, stop appreciating and thanking and being civil. CountArch, I hear, um, your model is off by seven points! Yeah, you heard me! You been served!
(In all seriousness, your OP is jaw-droppingly fine, and you deserve to count coup and reap kudos.)
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
So, can anyone report on the lines? My agency is getting out of work 2 hours early for voting, but from what I'm hearing I'm bringing a book and expecting to be in line for a long time.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
I think, on this day, we must all stop and pay homage to the great rock anthem of old:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SM0WIP7eMYs
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TinCow
So, can anyone report on the lines? My agency is getting out of work 2 hours early for voting, but from what I'm hearing I'm bringing a book and expecting to be in line for a long time.
I'll be heading to the polls in about an hour - mid-morning to hopefully avoid the longer lines. I'll be bringing a book, a drink and a small snack in case it goes too long - and I'm debating about a sleeping bag. :laugh4:
My wish for this election is a clean election with no major controversies. This country doesn't need another election like 2000. May the winner possess the wisdom required by these times and may he surround himself with the best people, regardless of their party affiliation. And may the severe divisiveness of the past several years turn to a mere dislike. :laugh4:
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Nice one GH :beam:
The dixville notch results are in:
Obama: 17
McCain: 10
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
I'll add my thanks to CA for a thorough and detailed opening post. Excellent work!
Things look quite extraordinary from potential turn-out point of view. Some commentators I've seen are predicting a possible 85% turn-out - with a more likely figure being 65%. This is just wonderful - people inspired to vote, willing to stand in long queues for hours to exercise their franchise.
After all my fears of voter apathy in Western democracies, it looks like the United States are going to prove me wrong again!
EDIT: According to the Beeb, Dixville Notch, New Hampshire went 15-6 to Obama. It was Hart's Location that went 17-10.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Do you have any stats about the oregon senate race?
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Well, there's one obvious reason for the high voter turnout. Free food alert:
Quote:
Free Scoop on Election Day at Ben and Jerry's
Come to participating scoop shops on November 4th from 5-8pm, and you'll get a free scoop of ice cream.
Free Doughnuts on Election Day at Krispy Kreme
Krispy Kreme will be giving out free star-shaped doughnuts with red, white, and blue sprinkles to anyone coming in with an "I Voted" sticker. "While voters may not always agree on the best candidate, voters can agree on one thing: Celebrating one of America's most coveted constitutional rights can be oh-so sweet," the company said in an announcement of the giveaway.
Free Coffee on Election Day at Starbucks
Voters who cast their ballots this Election Day could score more than a sense of civic pride. Starbucks Corp. is offering a free tall-size brewed coffee Tuesday to voters across the nation. All they need is a proof of voting or, in some cases, their own honest word.
Chick-fil-A
Go into one of their locally-owned franchises today (and perhaps tomorrow) and get a free chicken sandwich. I’m not sure just how many of their stores are planning the giveaway, but in some you show your sticker and in some you bring in one of your Presidential yard signs in exchange for a sandwich (intended to help clean up the inevitable trash left over on November 5) and in some you just show up. Check your local franchise.
[edit]More freebies.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
I'm sure someone mentioned this in the earlier thread, but apparently, every election since 1937 when the Washington Redskins won the home game before the election, the incumbent party stayed in power. If they lost, so did the incumbent.
Steelers 23 - Redskins 6. :balloon:
Just sayin'. :bounce:
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Good luck today America in exercising your right to vote.
To be honest due to the media here in the UK we're really kept in the dark over the elections, I personally find the news coverage of it dumbed down and not really presenting any facts.
We've been told of an Obama win but just talking to a McCain supporter the mood seems really good in the republican camp.
The world shall be watching these results with much held breath indeed.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Banquo i thought that one went wrong in the '04 election, infact didn't most of the conicidences in elections point to a kerry win in '04 ?
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Tbil:
Yes, most of the undecideds are breaking towards McCain today, which has McCain teamers hopeful. The problem for the GOP is that McCain needs 2/3s+ among the undecideds to win enough states and must steal at least one state that's leaning Obama as of this weekend (a TALL order, though not impossible). Obama, to win, has only to hold what is already leaning towards him in the polls Or upset McCain in one mid-size state like NC or AZ.
LINE REPORT (please note, inherently anecdotal data)
Polling line was longer than I have seen it. Ever. Any election in VA or the one I voted in TX.
Compared to the line I experienced at the same time of day for the last Congressional election, I would estimate interest is AT LEAST a full order of magnitude greater. VA will set a record for total votes and total percentage of those eligible actually voting. They'll probably have to go back to 1792 to find an election that turned out a higher percentage of eligible Virginians.
More under 25 year of age types by far than I am used to seeing were in line, somewhat more persons of African descent. Both of these anecdotal points -- especially coming from VA 1st where I live -- suggest Obama will win the VA vote handily and that Warner will defeat Gilmour for the Senate slot being vacated by Warner by an even greater margin. Whittman probably retains his HoR seat -- the VA 1st is quite conservative.
This district will show wins for a McCain and Whittman for the GOP and Warner for the Dems (narrowly). But the GOP margins will, I am estimating, be much lower than in other years. Commonwealth-wide, that bodes poorly for the GOP.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LittleGrizzly
Banquo i thought that one went wrong in the '04 election, infact didn't most of the conicidences in elections point to a kerry win in '04 ?
Yes, looks like you are right. The 'Skins last home game before the 2004 election was hosting the Green Bay Packers who beat them 28-14.
That's what I get for trusting euro-journalists. They probably meant the soccer redskins. :embarassed:
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Seamus Fermanagh
Polling line was longer than I have seen it. Ever. Any election in VA or the one I voted in TX.
Two of my co-workers voted before work, one in VA and one in DC. The DC person showed up to the polling place at 6:40am (for a 7:00am opening) and there were 100 people in front of her. However, she was finished by 7:30am. The VA person waited about 1.5 hours to vote. Washington Post is reporting lines over 3.5 hours in some places.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
I got in line at 10:30am and it took me about 50 minutes to complete the whole process. Not bad. Of 2200 people in my precinct, about 1/4 have voted (600) with only six voting machines. Here's a picture of the outside line at my polling place (fire company):
https://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h...online2008.jpg
There are actually two lines split alphabetically, though those standing in the parking lot probably aren't aware of it yet. The line inside the building was about 2/3 the length of the outside line. This was at 11:30am. A worker at the fire hall said the line this morning extended out to about where I was standing to take the picture. I don't envy those who will be voting after work. Long lines and there is a chance of showers later today.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
D'oh! Two posts in this thread and I've forgotten to thank CA for his awesome election coverage. Very well done! ~:pat: and :bow:
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TinCow
So, can anyone report on the lines? My agency is getting out of work 2 hours early for voting, but from what I'm hearing I'm bringing a book and expecting to be in line for a long time.
Lines are almost entirely nonexistent at my polling place. I have never stood in a line for more than ten minutes, I live in a relatively quiet neighborhood and there's just never been a huge crush to vote on election days at any particular time. But, I went this morning before work, and out of the two machines they had to accept the ballots (we use paper/inkblot voting and then you have to feed it into an automatic accepter) broke. So, I was in line for a good hour and a half. Nothing compared to the stories you hear about 3, 5, 8 hour waits in hotly contested districts in Ohio or Florida-- but still, that was a multiplied increase and I had never, never been there when all of the little voting booths were totally full ... they were today.
I am sure, if you are used to lines at your location, they will be worse than usual. So don't wait until 6:30pm after work to vote if you live in such a district.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Great Work, CA. Nice posts so far.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Koga No Goshi
...(we use paper/inkblot voting and then you have to feed it into an automatic accepter)...
Ditto here. The voting booth in a suitcase. :laugh4: We only have one scanner though.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Regardless of whether this is a Republican or Democratic year, the way McCain has run his campaign is inexcusable.
I really hope he wins, though. Reinstatement of the assault weapons ban is going to mess me up. :sweatdrop:
BTW, good job CA. :bow:
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
I waited 5 minutes to vote.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
PanzerJaeger
Regardless of whether this is a Republican or Democratic year, the way McCain has run his campaign is inexcusable.
Holy crap, what makes you say that?
I'm surprised.
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Koga No Goshi
Holy crap, what makes you say that?
I'm surprised.
1. Picking Palin
2. Flip-flopping on experience
3. Not being the McCain we saw in 2000
4. Not hitting Obama on tangible things
5. Allowing his supporters to be painted as idiots who thought Obama was terrorist socialist.
6. Picking Palin
All reasons in the end I couldnt vote for the man
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gregoshi
I got in line at 10:30am and it took me about 50 minutes to complete the whole process. Not bad. Of 2200 people in my precinct, about 1/4 have voted (600) with only six voting machines. Here's a picture of the outside line at my polling place (fire company):
https://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h...online2008.jpg
There are actually two lines split alphabetically, though those standing in the parking lot probably aren't aware of it yet. The line inside the building was about 2/3 the length of the outside line. This was at 11:30am. A worker at the fire hall said the line this morning extended out to about where I was standing to take the picture. I don't envy those who will be voting after work. Long lines and there is a chance of showers later today.
This can not happen in Bulgaria :no: :no: In my country it is like there is a disease in the places where people vote. (weird way to protest against the politicians, I know)
Useless comments from Stephen Asen expected after the Election day is over... :medievalcheers:
-
Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Strike For The South
1. Picking Palin
2. Flip-flopping on experience
3. Not being the McCain we saw in 2000
4. Not hitting Obama on tangible things
5. Allowing his supporters to be painted as idiots who thought Obama was terrorist socialist.
6. Picking Palin
I'm surprised because in the election thread we went one and a half hundred pages on things like:
1. "Obama's VP pick was just as bad/worse."
2. "Obama flip flops on everything, you can't trust him."
3. "Obama pretends to be for working people but he's really going to tax them out of existence."
4. "Obama's campaign and supporters are just as personal and attack just as low below the belt."
5. What? Weren't like the last 10-15 pages of the election thread people condemning Obama as a socialist? It seems like a lot of McCain supporters really believe that, and not just the idiot ones.
6. "The media just wasn't nice to her."
I don't disagree with your objective assessment of McCain's campaign, and yes Strike I know that you are non partisan in this race (though I wouldn't say you're totally politically neutral either, but close enough compared to a diehard McCain or diehard Obama supporter), I am just surprised to see people um... "confessing it", at this late hour?
I know there have been some early detractors on the Republican side of how McCain has run is campaign. But there have equally been many posters defending it or eviscerating Obama's as just as bad or worse in every single respect right up until the final page of the election thread. So I'm in a bit of shock.
