The point of no return?

For the sake of a purely historical debate I want to ask people at what point do they think that the fate of certain empires and cultures was sealed and what they think the future would have looked like if these people had held onto their independance.

For example the continental Celts, at what point in history were they destined to be absorbed into Roman, Germanic and Dacian cultures? Alesia? The failure of Carthage in the second Punic War? Or even when Brennus simply sacked Rome rather than destroy it? Or were they doomed anyway?

Or for the Hellenic fans (numerous as you are) when was the fate of the Seleucids sealed? Magnesia? The loss of Babylon to Parthia? Or when Laenas drew the circle in the sand around Antiochus IV?

It really isn't easy to assign a 'point of no return' when dealing with something so complex. Any number of things could have happened that could shift the course of history. But what the hey. I'll try a few.
Carthage was screwed when the Numidians joined up with the Romans before Zama and most of the elite Carthaginian cavalry was kept out of the battle.
Epeirus went to crap when Pyrrhus died.
The Third Mithridatic War was the beginning of the end for Pontus.

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Originally Posted by Zradha Pahlavan

It really isn't easy to assign a 'point of no return' when dealing with something so complex. Any number of things could have happened that could shift the course of history.

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Good point. But thanks for giving it a go anyways.

that circle in the sand sealed the seulecids imho since they showed weakness

had it been a stronger ruller he would have cut off the roman envoy head but he got himself outmanouvered in the psichic game and coward out. i don´t mean that they would have been able to destroy the romans ofc but they could have stiffen up a fight and for rome to reach seulecia i somehow doubt they would have been able to the road was long and the seulecids could choose where to set up the batle while at the same time they could form special forçes to constantly harass the entire roman army if they dared to enter the seulecid heartland

ofc there´s also the dissidents problem and the fact that had the seulecids did that their victory in alexandria would have meant litle since they could hardly defend their new future egiptian lands but being slapped in the face and not fighting back ...

in many ways the seulecids here remind of jughurta or the egiptians of rome saying "in 10 years rome would fall ravaged by their own people going at it´s carcass like wolfs" or "a city for sale if it ever found a buyer", since they understood that going against it it would be an extremly dificult war (the type of war that can´t be won by batles alone as hanibal had shown) but still

as for celts one can say they where doomed from the start due to their intercine wars and i believe rome knew it thats why they tryed to keep away from the gaulish celts and if not for cesar they would have probably had died out in less then a few hundread years with so much civil war amongst them (just like what the teutonic invasion had shown that the celts where loosing ground)

carthage lost the war against rome when their rullers decided that they didn´t wanted to build a 3rd fleet to keep fighting the 1st punic war and they accepted such harsh agreaments by rome, hannibal gave them a fair chance to turn the tide of war but just like the celts the inner wars inside carthage sealed it´s fate when they were unable/unwilling to keep the numidians happy and provide hanibal with adequate reenforcements

For the Seleukids I'd say the death of either Antiochus Epiphanes or Antiochus Sidetes were possible points of no return, they were the last real shows of strength by the Arche before it became to weak and divided to compete with its rivals.

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Epeirus went to crap when Pyrrhus died.

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I wouldn't quite say that. Epeiros enjoyed a brief resurgance under Pyrrhos' son, Alexander, who managed to conquer Makedonia from Antigonos Gonatas around 260 BC. Had he managed to hold onto it, I think Epeiros could have achieved hegemony over Greece. Whether they'd have faired any better against the Romans than the Antigonids is another story.

I would say any empire or confederation is doomed when it starts fighting against itself (civil war) on a regular basis (not just a one-off). Repeated civil wars gravely weakened both the Seleucid and Ptolemaiac empires, so Rome could beat them later. Civil war destroyed the Roman Republic, Rome only survived by becoming an empire.

The Romans only beat the Gauls because they were constantly fighting each other, by the time they banded together against Rome, it was too late, too many warriors were already dead. Same goes for the Britons. Rome conquered through 'divide and rule' - persuading barbarian enemies to fight each other, fight on Rome's side against a rival tribe, or at least to stand aside and do nothing while Rome destroyed a rival tribe.

Although it is impossible to point to only one event I believe that the Gaulish tribes could have survived Caesar's expedition had they not asked from the Germans to interfer a few decades prior. Still they had been fighting each other for centuries. Imagine what the belgae alone could had done had they been united against Caesar. He says that they alone could muster 200,000 troops.
As for the Seleucids I think that it was a matter of time before their empire crubmled. The persian administrative managment (also used by Alexander) had serious problems maintaining the satrapes loyalty who either rebeled and formed their own kingdoms or sided with foreign ones.

Its rally hard to tell, throughout history there are examples of Empires that survived on a thread.

It was pretty funny when that guy humiliated the envoys Ghengis Khan sent to set up trade agreements with the Persians.

I think that counts.

Carthage's 2nd Punic War went to hell when Hasdrubal's reinforcement army was defeated in Spain.

As others have mentioned, the Gallic kingdoms were pretty much screwed by the time Rome came around since they had weakened themselves through centuries of civil war. Same for the Successor states.

Napoleon's empire went to hell when he decided to invade Russia. Germany's empire went to hell after they decided to invade Russia and declare war on the US.

Hideyoshi's invasion of the East Asian mainland was doomed before it even began because he was dumb enough to think he could conquer the Ming Empire.

Eastern Han Empire went to hell when the central authority gave too much power to military governors.

Roman Republic went to hell after the Sulla-Marian civil war, then Caesar-Pompey civil war, then Conspirator-Loyalist civil war, then Octavian-Anthony civil war.

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Originally Posted by antisocialmunky

It was pretty funny when that guy humiliated the envoys Ghengis Khan sent to set up trade agreements with the Persians.

I think that counts.

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Humiliating a Mongol ambassadors was medieval equivalent to telling the US military to "drop a nuke on me."