Korean sword-rattling

Or more likely, military show off. Or how to impress and raise tensions so that everyone can look at us.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100525/...rea_ship_sinks

Honestly, it's about time they do that. I was expecting this whole tension to escalate sooner or later and this is exactly what I "predicted". What's everyone's take on this?
Will it eventually escalate in a war? I highly doubt it, apart from some skirmishes. If it does, US will go with S Korea, China with N Korea, and then we have World War III.

But let's not get so apocalyptic. Will it escalate in a war? Discuss.

This is hardly the time for the US to roll up its sleeves... and China is just starting its international expansion, not the right moment for them to get involved either -their economy would tank if they went to war with the 'states. Anyway, I think Beijing probably has more in common with Seoul than with Pyongyang nowadays...

I imagine there will be little more than frosty relations -Seoul's hands are probably tied by it's allies.

edit:

Unless Pyongyang was probing for this kind of weakness in Seoul's allies and chooses now to attack. But then the US (and others) would be forced to react in support of Seoul somehow anyway.

No it wont turn hot in my opinion the south is in an awkward position it risks severe damage to it's capitol and industry and for what in return will they recieve after they win which they would.

China is also in a dodgy position it does not want to abandon it's ally but it is growing impatient with N Korea.

Most of this sabre rattling is probably linked to instability in the leadership as people position themselves in the party for the eventual demise of Kim and the apponitment of a new leader later on.

china has nothing to gain by starting WW3 over the hermit kingdom.

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

china has nothing to gain by starting WW3 over the hermit kingdom.

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Agreed China does not want war but it will try it's best to prevent the North collapsing into one due to stupidity on the North's part it would not like to have a border with South that ended up getting the Norths nukes.

It has been speculated recently that cliques are positioning themselves in the party for the day Kim pushes off this mortal coil it could have been an act of aggression done out of a need to project strength to the Party.

Nothing ever happens in these situations. It will all blow over in a week. At least from an international perspective.

most of NK's nuclear facilities are in the north, my guess is that if war kicks off then china will swiftly launch a 'humanitarian' intervention into the north of the country.

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Originally Posted by tibilicus

Nothing ever happens in these situations. It will all blow over in a week. At least from an international perspective.

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The North just seems to be continually needling for attention upping the stakes so it can be seen to have a good hand at the table. I predict a freeze on relations and some round-table talks where China pledges aid in return for who knows what.

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

china has nothing to gain by starting WW3 over the hermit kingdom.

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Expeditionary force? Much like the Division Azul, but then bigger, I think. That way China helps N-Korea but stays neutral if war will break out.

My feeling is that NK is to China what that old "friend" from high school who was kinda cool back in the day, but hasn't kicked all those bad, high school habits now that he's in his 40's. After a while, for its own good, China's going to terminate the relationship. The CCP has matured considerably since the 50's. NK has, if anything, regressed. When China intervened in the Korean war, the two bore strong philosophical similarities. The simple truth of the matter is that no longer exists. I tend to agree with Furunculus- if China is to interfere in an out and out war between SK and NK, its going to be on a "humanitarian" mission to ensure that it gets a piece of the pie, in some way, when SK emerges with total victory.

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Originally Posted by Yaseikhaan

My feeling is that NK is to China what that old "friend" from high school who was kinda cool back in the day, but hasn't kicked all those bad, high school habits now that he's in his 40's. After a while, for its own good, China's going to terminate the relationship. The CCP has matured considerably since the 50's. NK has, if anything, regressed. When China intervened in the Korean war, the two bore strong philosophical similarities. The simple truth of the matter is that no longer exists. I tend to agree with Furunculus- if China is to interfere in an out and out war between SK and NK, its going to be on a "humanitarian" mission to ensure that it gets a piece of the pie, in some way, when SK emerges with total victory.

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I'm in considerable agreement with this.


I too think this will blow over. It only escalates past a staring contest if NK pulls the trigger. If NK does so, they have about a week to cripple/take SK out of things. Any longer and USA reinforcements start to arrive in bulk and will settle the hash of anyone the ROK soldiers cannot handle.

This time, we'll have a little sub rosa chat with China first and find out where "the line" is (in 1950 we didn't know). North of that, Chinese volunteers will "establish order in the interests of regional stability."

The conflict will. Not be as easy in a rok vs. Nka encounter the north Korean military while not as advanced as s. Korea or as well trained nk does have a decent military of over a million men. It wouldn't be like fighting Saddam sucks Hussein it would be a war. And if China and the us threw in and fought proxy style without diplomatically involving themselves it would be even worse

If there was a war, Japan would certainly send SDF forces over. Just a thought.

A lot depends on Kim's internal position. If he feels threatened by the generals, and considers that the hand over of power to his son simply will not work, he may just be insane enough to have one last hurl of the dice in order to secure support at home. If that did happen, China would probably do exactly as Furunculus suggested but otherwise stay out of it.

I'm think this was attempt to grandstand internationally to shore up support at home there have been several low level provocations in last say two years or so here are three I found quick enough.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/TOE60Q066.htm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37244411/

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30035197/

I would bet this is designed to allow Kim to give up summit while appearing strong later on at some nuke talks later in return for oil an food aid etc. That devaluation of the Norths currency was a disaster and he knows that he needs the armies approval on his sons succession for when he dies or steps down.

Only with us approval subotan

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Originally Posted by Centurion1

The conflict will. Not be as easy in a rok vs. Nka encounter the north Korean military while not as advanced as s. Korea or as well trained nk does have a decent military of over a million men. It wouldn't be like fighting Saddam sucks Hussein it would be a war. And if China and the us threw in and fought proxy style without diplomatically involving themselves it would be even worse

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North Korea's army is pure garbage. They may have a million men (I'm assuming thats counting reserves), but I'd be willing to most their soliders are poorly trained and equipped. In addition, their navy, air force, and armor are laughable vs what South Korea could muster with US support. However, they have three important things going for them; their massive artillery positions pointing at Seoul, possible nuclear weapons, and the fact that South Korea has no desire to "occupy" and rebuild North Korea.

That is not true. Almost all of n. Koreas meagar gdp goes to defense spending. The country is far more militarized than s. Korea and they are well trained in tactics. Most of their naval power is absolutely obsolete and air is weak as well (but dangerous) their land forces are well supplied by china and are quite dangerous it is a million without reserves actually. The rok would win but it would be very very bloody. As well if the us invaded we would lose a lot of men. If you think people complain about afghanistan and iraq......

They're a bit like those two friends you have who have that bit of sexual tension and chemistry between them. And they have for years, but neither actually ever take the plunge. And you feel like hitting them both over the head and saying: "Get it over with already so the rest of us can get on with our lives in peace."

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Originally Posted by Ice

North Korea's army is pure garbage. They may have a million men (I'm assuming thats counting reserves), but I'd be willing to most their soliders are poorly trained and equipped. In addition, their navy, air force, and armor are laughable vs what South Korea could muster with US support. However, they have three important things going for them; their massive artillery positions pointing at Seoul, possible nuclear weapons, and the fact that South Korea has no desire to "occupy" and rebuild North Korea.

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Hmmm. I disagree. This is a country that puts almost all of its GDP (although meagre as that is) into it's armed forces. You can dismiss them out of hand just like that. Their armour may be outdated, but by sheer weight of numbers (actually well over 3:1) they hold the advantage in a preemptive strike. Similarily in terms of air force they have 1200-1500 planes. The issues that would decide any conflict are: 1) do the troops have the morale to fight a bitter war and 2) does the North have enough fuel and other supplies to wage war beyond any initial strike.

Lol pyscho and I speak with the same voice mwahahaha

So you think North Korea has a decent military because:
-It's large
-They spend a lot of their GDP on the military

Do I have this correct?

Also, please take a look at the quality of North Korean tanks and aircraft.

Edit:

I took the liberty of finding it for you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_...%27s_Air_Force

Look at the country of origin. It tells you something about the age of the aircraft North Korea is using.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_...y_Ground_Force

Same thing.

I don't want to have this argument. I have an entire foldr on my computer called international military capabilities and I do not want to dig through it

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Originally Posted by Centurion1

I don't want to have this argument. I have an entire foldr on my computer called international military capabilities and I do not want to dig through it

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I'd suggest not making claims you aren't willing to back up.

I'm trying to do a project but sure you wanna throw a gauntlet down

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Originally Posted by Ice

So you think North Korea has a decent military because:
-It's large
-They spend a lot of their GDP on the military

Do I have this correct?

Also, please take a look at the quality of North Korean tanks and aircraft.

Edit:

I took the liberty of finding it for you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_...%27s_Air_Force

Look at the country of origin. It tells you something about the age of the aircraft North Korea is using.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_...y_Ground_Force

Same thing.

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This is all true but if there was a war the lads are right in that the North would seem to have the advantage in the early stages the element of surprise plus the sheer weight of numbers would overwhelm the south.

The southern capitol would likely be overun in a few hours day at best however the south would regroup and fight a holding action till US carrier group crossed the pacific.

While they waited B2 bombers would strike targets all across the north and I would say by end of 3 months the war is over maybe shorter if China pulled them back from in.

The death toll would be enormous and it would be mostly civilians the world could tip into recession even worse than now and though not as likely a single misstep could draw china in if they felt threatened

Don't underestimate N.K

A preemptive strike by North Korea would have massive, massive repercussions. The sheer numbers of artillery, air power and armour they could unleash in a first strike would cause untold amounts of damage. With even average tactics they would be able to fight a long drawn out war. Their weakness lies in:

- Limited oil supplies
- Unknown levels of morale (if the armed forces are high in morale they'd fight to the death, if low then they could crumble)
- The international response

Advantages:

- The topography of Korea
- Outnumbering every aspect of any war. Men. Armour. Artillery. Rockets. Planes. Navy.
- Capable submarine force. Sinking a S.K ship and avoiding detection displays that they do have some knowledge of how to effectively use subs.

They couldn't win any war. But, they'd fight to the death. It'd be bloody and with ridiculous amounts of destruction. They are not as you suggest "garbage", that is just speculative Ice. They are no doubt fanatical and committed, and that makes them dangerous.

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Originally Posted by Centurion1

I'm trying to do a project but sure you wanna throw a gauntlet down

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Throw a what down? I don't want to throw anyting down. All I'm asking is you back on your response. It appears logical with correct support, I'd have to problem agreeing with you. This isn't a penis measuring contest.

@ Psyconaut

Perhaps garbage was not the correct word. Outdated and ineffective vs superior firepower would be a better way to put it. For some reason, you still think just because everything is BIG, that it is somehow an advantage.

As for the submarine incident, I would call that fluke. The ship that was sunk was not in a state of war, nor do I think it would actively looking for submarines. I'd like to see North Korea try that again, especially during a state of war.

Please don't misinterpret what I'm saying though. If North Korea launched a surprise attack against they consquences would be devasting to South Korea. Seoul would resemble Stalingrad during WWII, and millions would perish.

The people in charge of North Korea will not willingly start a war with their Southern neighbors. They know they will be screwed and I doubt they have any urge to destroy their position as a rich head of state and possibly be killed.

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Throw a what down? I don't want to throw anyting down. All I'm asking is you back on your response. It appears logical with correct support, I'd have to problem agreeing with you. This isn't a penis measuring contest.

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oh ice it was meant as a joke not trying to enter the e-penis contest

anyway. i had to find all my sources and check them so it took a bit extra


Korean War Capabilities
There is little doubt in anyone’s mind of the superiority of the South Korean military pound for pound. However, this is not the point that is being argued. The debate is centered on the fact that it would not be a quick war and that N. Korea does in fact possess a military capable of severe damage to S. Koreas armed forces without heavy support from the United States.
The North Korean navy is often overlooked. But that is because people often concentrate purely on her surface fleet. The North Korean navy outnumbers the South Korean navy approximately 7:1. The North Koreans have relatively high-class submarines (1980’s era) purchased from Russia in the 90’s and early 2000’s. North Korea has more submarines than all of South Korean vessels. South Korea has tier two frigates and destroyers. North Korea has no destroyers and at best tier three frigates. However, the age of the surface ship is past and these really have very little impact besides being escort ships and mobile gun platforms. In the end the S. Korean navy would be whittled down by the sheer size of N. Korea’s naval forces though at great cost to N. Korea’s naval forces. This is of course assuming the US remained out of the war.
The Korean People’s Air force (KPAF) is not an entity to be shunned. It has more than 3:1 odds against the S. Korean Air Force. As well about 608 out of 1778 of N. Korea’s aircraft are Helo’s. While the S. Koreans are better-trained pilots and have much better aircraft (US F-16’s, recently purchased F-18, numerous classes of US Helo) Numbers are key. The North Korean pilot is on average poorly trained (in comparison to his s. Korean colleague, he does know what he is doing however) the most advanced fighter of the (KPAF) is the Mig-21 which can compete with at best with even pilots an F-14. They have extensive bombing capabilities as well though mostly with outdated aircraft. The South Korean air force is developing a new program F-X an indigenous aircraft the production of which will greatly enhance their air power. The KPAF would eventually fall except for small pockets though they would wield enough power to cause extensive damage and leave the S. Korean air force crippled. If they were lucky enough to get in the initial strike they could cause a crippling blow. However, in all reality the South Korean Air force is, not surprisingly, superior to the KPAF.
The land forces of North Korea are her crown jewel. Composed of over a million active duty members and 4 million ready to go reserves they are well trained by Chinese trainers and her senior officers were sent to Soviet Union schools of military science. South Korean soldiers are much better trained and led however. It should be noted that the S. Korean forces number, 687000 approximately with roughly the same number of reserves. North Korean artillery is very high class and is led by Chinese advisors, ostentatiously called paramilitary contractors. They have relatively advanced artillery and in huge numbers compared to the s. Koreans. It would cause severe infrastructure damage. However, Artillery much like surface ships is relatively outdated and is not the new mode of destruction. As for armor the N. Koreans as typical hold a numerical advantage over the S. Koreans but are at an enormous technological deficit. The K2, which will shortly be phasing out the last model of S. Korean tank, is one of the best in the world. N. Korean armor unless entrenched poses little threat. Infantry is relatively the same on both sides. The South Korean troop is well disciplined and trained though the N. Korean counterpart is not to be sneezed at. In infantry the N. Koreans win through pure numbers.

Supply would be a lopsided affair; the S. Koreans would quickly use their far larger economy to purchase what they needed. N. Korea would have a good possibility of being able to blockade their waters with submarine warfare but it would only delay the process. If the war were not won quickly the N. Koreans would simply run out of supplies. However, in this modern age of lightning fast attacks and mechanized warfare the war could in all reality end quite quickly. It should also be noted that whoever the aggressor nation was would probably face international reprisals and find it much harder to replenish materiel.
In conclusion I would like to reiterate the fact I believe the ROK would win a war with the DRNK though it would be long and bloody. That is the point I am trying to make it would not be an easy fight. The North Korean Armed Forces would cause severe damage and destruction to the S. Korean people and to the Korean peninsula as well. In all likelihood they would most likely employ their chemical weapons and add even more lives to the butchers bill. This is all a hypothetical analysis relying on the fact no other nations throw in for either nation state.




Sources
Naval War College Review (MILITARY CAPABILITY IN ASIA)
Army War Journal (EAST ASIAN SITUATON)
CIA Factbook (DRNK, ROK)
Combat Fleets of the World ed. 1999
Modern Airpower ed. 2003
The Korean Conflict: A Modern Perspective

Good read. I'll respond tomorrow with a key points when my eyes aren't so tired. Staring at excel for multiple hours tends to do that.

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Originally Posted by Ice

North Korea's army is pure garbage. They may have a million men (I'm assuming thats counting reserves), but I'd be willing to most their soliders are poorly trained and equipped. In addition, their navy, air force, and armor are laughable vs what South Korea could muster with US support. However, they have three important things going for them; their massive artillery positions pointing at Seoul, possible nuclear weapons, and the fact that South Korea has no desire to "occupy" and rebuild North Korea.

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i am with ICE here.

the one significant threat NK really has it the thousands of artillary pieces pointed towards Soeul.

But if NK went ape-poo they would get decimated in the DMZ.

The Japanese and US Navy would quickly assist the SK Navy and the NK Navy would end up on the bottom rapidly.

SK & US airforces would hammer NK positions on the DMZ with Paveways and Tomohawks, and ground forces would mop up the rest with counter-battery fire.

SK and US forces would use the breaches in the DMZ to counterattack and wouldn't even stop on the border, they would zoom north and sever all arteries of supply to the frontline whilst the airforce and border troops keep the NK frontline busy dodging bombs.

China would immediately move into the North and take over Kim's Crown Jewels which would send NK defence plans into disarray.

PhongYang would fall within three weeks.

as far as training doctrine and equipment are concerned NK is utterly irrelevant on the modern battlerfield.